Marmol 2009 vs 2008
by tharr on Jun 7, 2009 11:24 PM CDT
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The first thing that jumps out is his current WHIP is 1.52 against 0.93 last year. He has already been in 30 of our 54 games. That projects to a season total of 90 games. Since the 70’s only 1 pitcher has appeared in more than 90 games. That was Solomon Torres for the 06 Pirates. That year his WHIP jumped from 1.18 to 1.46. Two years later he retired. In 2007 he missed 85 games due to injuries.
Marmol is somewhat reminiscent of Willis with a violent delivery. Dontrelle has gone from Pitcher of the year to hanging onto a roster spot on the Tigers by his fingernails. His BB numbers have spiked while his ERA is unforgiveable.
What worries me is Piniella’s insistence on using Marmol so much that he is ruining one of our long term assets. It seems that in Lou’s last hurrah, he may be focusing on short term goals to the detriment of the team’s future.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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i'm not sure...
if its time for another one of my extended posts on this subject or not…
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 7, 2009 11:45 PM CDT reply actions
Please, don't
I think we get your message loud and clear.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jun 7, 2009 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions
i'm not sure you're capable
of getting the message
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 7, 2009 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure you're capable
of considering any other opinion.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jun 8, 2009 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Will you two stop sniping at each other?
Enough.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
yeah really!
.. and on the Queen’s Birthday too… ;)
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 8, 2009 4:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Not in Western Australia
according to my handy-dandy desk calendar. So those parties in Perth have to go on hold … :)
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jun 8, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
You reposted those in the Game Recap for yesterday's game
here: http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/6/7/901975/a-long-days-journey-into-victory#16696884
I’m gonna repost my reply here because it seems appropriate…
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 8, 2009 4:51 AM CDT up reply actions
But are walks the be all, end all here?
Using the data from your link also reveals the following:
(Note that I bolded a discrepancy where I got a lower number for BB/9 on 0 days rest)
0 Days = 5.85 BB/9, 4.47 hits/9, 1.146 WHIP, 12.55 K/9, 1.89 ERA
1 Day_ = 5.13 BB/9, 4.76 hits/9, 1.100 WHIP, 10.75 K/9, 2.32 ERA
2 Days = 4.61 BB/9, 6.59 hits/9, 1.244 WHIP, 12.18 K/9, 2.30 ERA
3 Days = 3.26 BB/9, 5.59 hits/9, 0.983 WHIP, 13.97 K/9, 4.66 ERA
As you point out his BB/9 innings do go down with more rest, but his hits allowed go up. So when you look at WHIP, the pattern just isn’t so clear anymore. Their really isn’t a clear pattern for K’s either.
However, his ERA seems to go UP fairly dramatically as he gets more rest — people will argue about how meaningful ERA is as a gauge of performance, but I suggest it’s those earned runs that stick in the minds of fans and I’m sure have given rise to the feeling that many people have expressed that Carlos gets rusty when not used… I’m curious to hear what others make of these patterns?
However, I will add that even if the stats clearly showed that Marmol pitched WAY better on less rest (which they don’t) I would still think Lou was over-using him lately and that the over-use will eventually lead to him breaking down if it continues…
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 8, 2009 4:52 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It appears the best way to use him is with either one or two days rest in between appearances.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Which is probably true with almost all relievers
I wish Lou would realize that with others like Ascanio.
Maybe after Ascanio's good game yesterday...
…. Lou will put him more in the mix.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Let's hope so. He needs to start to spread the work around out there. Guzman looks
like the real deal. Lou will probably start to work him into those tough spots that Marmol used to always get. Marmol needs some time off to get his mechanics back. He’s a mess right now.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jun 8, 2009 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Guzman continues to impress
this would allow Lou to use him in to set up Gregg until Marmol gets his act together.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 8, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions
ERA is a poor stat for a pitcher like Marmol.
Especially when he comes into pressure situations. How about inherited runners?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Had time on lunch to look up when he comes in with runners on base.
0 days =IR 20 IRS 5 ERA 1.25
1 day= IR 31 IRS 4 ERA 0.81
2 days= IR 12 IRS 2 ERA 0.00
3 days= IR 8 IRS 1 ERA 0.00
4 days= IR 5 IRS 1 ERA 8.18
IR=inherited runners IRS=inherited runners scored
I was actually surprised how infrequently he comes in with runners on base. From my memory was about every time he pitches, but the pitch logs do not show that. I’m not sure how much it adds to the discussion, but my point is ERA are not the only measure of a reliever.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
doesn't look like much difference
between one days rest and two days rest and three days rest.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 8, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Higher rate of IRS on 0 days rest...
25% vs around 10-15% for 1-3 days rest.
But, again, small sample size issues here. Not to mention that we don’t know where those inherited runners were on the basepaths, or how many outs there were in the inning.
true dat.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 8, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
And if you’ll re-read my post, I think you’ll see that I wasn’t stating that ERA was the best measure here — my point was that the high ERA on days with more rest might explain why many BCB’ers believe that Carlos gets “rusty” if not used…
At this point I’m not totally convinced either way regarding the issue of how rest affects Carlos’ performance in the short-term (i.e., as measured by all the stats we’re throwing around).
However, regardless of the short-term affects, I definitely agree with Dartmouth and others that there will be long-term effects of over-use if Lou doesn’t start resting Marmol more.
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 8, 2009 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Didn't mean to take an opinion against you.
I just was stating that inherited runners are also a metric to use as valuing a reliever.
But as I stated above, I was surprised to find he really doesn’t come in all that often in those situations.
I am very concerned that Lou is pulling a Dusty on Marmol’s arm and it is affecting his control and maybe even his overall arm health. Both in the short term and long term.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I believe there are two seperate issues
The first is the effectiveness based upon short term days off. But the second is the effect of long term overuse. As I said before, Marmol is on a pace to appear in over 90 games. He would be only the 2nd pitcher to be used that much since the 70’s. The tables you show don’t take into account cumulative overuse. When you add in that last year he appeared in 82 games and then pitched in the WBC, it’s a definite red flag. The fact his BB rate has gone from 4.2/9 to 9.0/9 this year should tell Lou that he approaching a meltdown and possibly an end of career. Rothschild needs to present the facts to Lou and the overuse needs to stop now.
If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.
I gotta stop doing this
Yeah, what you said… which I basically repeated for ya above, except that I didn’t make the point as well.. :)
You are exactly right about there being two separate issues here.
(.. and one of these days, I’ll start remembering to read down the rest of the thread before posting a redundant response… lol)
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 9, 2009 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions
yeh i posted my response in the other thread as well
his BB’s are straight down, his K’s are almost straight up (though the 0 day rest K Rate is strong), his K/BB is straight up
of the three things a pitcher can control on the mound 2 of them are heading in the wrong general direction the less rest Marmol gets
but even if you don’t want to acknowledge the command issues, just take a look at this year in general. If you can look me in the face and tell me Marmol is the same pitcher he’s been the last two years, then I think you’re likely in denial. Now you can come up with whatever explanation you want, but the ones i’ve heard outside of fatigue are completely based on confirmation bias, such as it’s a “mental issue”
well whenever he struggles they claim its mental, whenever he gets guys out they claim “see it was just mental”
its an impossible assertion to test and one based directly off of the result
I suggest its fatigue-based and back it up with numbers that would suggest fatigue plays an impact in “short-term” conditions, i.e. days of rest before pitching. My suggestion is that if this happens on a short-term basis, just think of the consequences of these extended stretches Marmol’s had like this current one (8 appearances in 11 DAYS + 1 warmup session) could have LONG-TERM
I believe what we’re seeing this season is the consequences of his overuse the last two seasons with Lou, and they’re being magnified by this recent stretch in which he’s been abused more than ever before
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 8, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course it's over-use.
I don’t get why there have to be long posts on this at all.
Is Sean Marshall our most dependable starter?
by DGU on Jun 8, 2009 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions
because 77% disagrees with us
at least with the poll i posted weeks ago…
and i’ve been harping on this for over a year and a half and despite overwhelming evidence in support of the thesis, the majority are dismissive of it… its frustrating
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 8, 2009 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it's better
.. than an awful lot of things we have long post on around here lately. Just my opinion though…
A second opinion I’ll also share with ya for free: might be time to change “Sean Marshall” to “Randy Wells” in your sig line.. ;)
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 9, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree it's worth talking about.
And I did change my sig line, although I still like Marshall better than Wells going forward.
For the record, I'm glad the Cubs have a high payroll. Does anyone understand why the high payroll is something anyone should complain about?
by DGU on Jun 9, 2009 7:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Marshall v Wells in the future
Too soon for me to say… ask me next year when my hindsight’s better.. :)
I won’t disagree with your assessment though..
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 9, 2009 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Like I said in the other thread also
I’m not sure I agree that the trend with K’s is very clear.. certainly not a clear linear relationship like with BB’s…
…but we are just debating about how Marmol’s short-term performance is being affected by rest (or a lack thereof)…
I agree with you that Lou’s current over-use of Marmol is unsustainable and will have serious long-term consequences. I’m just hoping that he can still get back to his best — in other words, that permanent damage hasn’t already been done.
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 9, 2009 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions
i'm hoping for that too
but i think we’re all “hoping” and not looking at what is actually going on
We’re 1/3 of the way through the season, that’s a decent sample size and Marmol looks nothing like the pitcher we’ve seen for 2 years running. What I’m saying is instead of “there WILL BE long-term effects” is simply “there ARE long-term effects” as in look at what’s happening right now
I think this years results are largely based on the abuse last year
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 9, 2009 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions
It's hard for me to judge
I get to see about one Cubs game every 2-4 weeks that makes it onto one of the sports channels down here. Most of them I listen to on WGN radio (via gameday audio) and I follow the game threads here for many/most games.
So all that said, my impression from this season has been that some days we get the Marmol of 2007/8 and some days we get LOMRAM (some horrible control-lacking imposter). But I really don’t get to SEE him pitch. So are you saying that even on his better days this season, he’s showing ill effects of over-use? If so, then I am much more worried. I’ve certainly been hoping that with less use, we’ll see more and more of good White Castle Marmol.
Pumping sunshine for the Cubs since 1968 (yeah, that's right I was a Cubs fan in the womb!)
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on Jun 9, 2009 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions
tough for me to say
i’m not a scout so I try not to rely on my eyes because in most instances your eyes are just going to lead to verifying your own thoughts. This is why I lean on the numbers a bit more
to me, it looks like his arm isn’t coming through as swiftly which is leading to more rise and less snap on his breaking balls (less horizontal movement) which is confirmed in his pitch f/x data (the movement), but that’s also justifying my own internal beliefs, so it could just be a case of confirmation bias
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 9, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Marmol overuse
Hopefully the emergence of Guzman as a reliable late inning guy will allow Lou to not overuse Marmol.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 9, 2009 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions
He threw 11 pitches today.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Still, I see the point here.
Overuse may have ruined his command, at least temporarily. 11 pitches? Yes. Only three were strikes.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He needs a week off
With Guzman pitching well and hopefully Ascanio getting things together, Marmol needs some time off to rest and hopefully regain his control.
There is concern for Marmol
I think it’s from overuse but two things were learned on Sunday:
1) Lou will pull Marmol if he struggles. I was convinced he was going to leave him in to get out of the jam.
2) The bullpen really proved themselves to Lou. I think he can trust a few more guys to pitch the 7th and 8th if he needs to which is great.
FWIW
that’s the first time I’ve seen Lou pull Marmol after two batters. That was almost a Rich Hill type situation there.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 8, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
I beleive that he did it against
San Fran (at San Fran) after he came in and gave up a game tying homerun or something equivalent.
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on Jun 8, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Last Year
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on Jun 8, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I probably didn't watch that game
I can’t do the west-coast games. They go too long.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 8, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually
My memory is poor…he gave up the homer that I thought but he did pitch the entire inning (July 2nd Game @ San Fran)
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on Jun 8, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
But the next day...
He faced one batter, one homerun, and got pulled…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN200807030.shtml
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on Jun 8, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I also think we have to reassess
David Patton. That kid pitches once every two weeks and does pretty good.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
History shows that the effectiveness of primetime set-up men on good ballclubs is usually short-lived
You can examine consistently good teams over the past number of years and identify many primetime set-up men who were dominant for a couple year stretch before the wheels fell off. It is the exception more than the rule that a top set-up man can maintain strong effectiveness and heavy workload for more than a couple years. They either flame out, devolve into Bob Howry types circa 2007-2008 with the Cubs, or if they are lucky assume the role of closer where there is insulation from too heavy a workload, etc.
You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little messed up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?
The bullpen
is the most fungible part of the team. It can change in effectiveness from year to year very easily, or even within one year.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Jun 8, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Angel Guzman? You are now Carlos Marmol.
Jose Ascanio? You are now Angel Guzman.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Kevin Gregg can stay Kevin Gregg.
His K numbers are actually pretty good. He just needs to find a way to cut down on the hits.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
And especially the HR...
with his walk rate, the hit rate needs to come down. But he also cannot continue to give up a HR every 5 innings and be an effective closer, unless we’re giving him multiple-run leads every time.
Kevin Gregg is finally pitching in a home ballpark that doesn't strongly discourage HRs.
I cannot see how Jim Hendry looked at Kevin Gregg and saw a good fit for Wrigley Field and Lou Piniella. I’m generally a Hendry fan, but this I cannot see.
Is Sean Marshall our most dependable starter?
by DGU on Jun 8, 2009 8:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm still irritated that Hendry traded Ceda for Gregg...
When Gregg was basically no better than Michael Wuertz.
Ceda may never make it, BUT...
… his trade value was more than Kevin Gregg.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Kevin Gregg will be elsewhere next year
Guy was brought in to be a one-year bandaid for a presumed run to the playoffs. I don’t think even Jim Moneybags Hendry would be stupid enough to give him a multi-year deal.
You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little messed up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?
With the emergence of Guzman
Do you consider making Marmol the closer thereby reducing his workload? Certainly, this assumes he recovers from his control issues.
I think in the short term, it might behoove the Cubs to see if Guzman can handle the 8th inning of a pressure packed game or coming into a tight game late with runners on base and less than 2 outs. If he can handle those situations and handle them well, they might want to think about flip flopping bullpen roles once Marmol rights his ship. This would also assume that they think Gregg could slip into the 7th or 8th inning role without any issues. It then might allow them to use Heilman differently and thereby remove his dastardly arm from close/tight ball games whenever possible.
Discuss
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
I'd instead alternate Guzman and Marmol in the setup/fireman role...
To try to keep both of them more fresh.
Especially if Ascanio can help out in the 6/7th innings.
that's what I would do
I think you see the fireman a lot more often then you see the closer.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 8, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep, this is my simple solution, too.
Like you say, if Ascanio can continue to step up and take some of the pressure off, all the better. My fear is, though, that Lou tends to put on blinders that restrict him to seeing only ONE effective reliever (who’s not the closer). He seems to have now shifted his gaze to Guzman, who has appeared in the last five consecutive games.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Marmol as closer???
Do you consider making Marmol the closer thereby reducing his workload? Certainly, this assumes he recovers from his control issues.
Marmol has not earned the right to close. Gregg is a better pitcher at this point in time. Now if Marmol gets his mechanics in order and starts throwing strikes again, maybe he can close, but there is zero reason to make him the closer now. I would have Guzman close before Marmol right now.
I think in the short term, it might behoove the Cubs to see if Guzman can handle the 8th inning of a pressure packed game or coming into a tight game late with runners on base and less than 2 outs.
Agreed. Have Guzman and Marmol switch roles for a while. See if Guzman can handle the heavier responsibility and if Marmol can get his act together.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 9, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions
My whole argument
was predicated on the fact that the move of Marmol to the Closer occurred once Marmol righted the ship so to speak AND it was determined that Guzman could handle Marmol’s previous role as a fireman AND that Gregg would still perform at a reasonable level in another role.
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on Jun 10, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Can we give the rest of the NL some credit ?
Marmol has the liveliest ball on the Cubs staff. Over the last 2 season he has stuck out many hitters or force ground balls with his slider that was no where need the zone.
This year teams are very patience when facing him. They take more pitches that wind up being called balls compared to swinging at them in the past.
His stuff is still “ELECTRIC” and given some time LARRY will figure him out.
And YES, Lou please look to Guzman or Ascaino once in a while PLEASE !!!
"If The Phone Doesn't Ring, It's Me"
Problem is, Marmol is missing the plate by ridiculous margins...
…that allow – or practically force – opposing pitchers to be patient. In year’s past, when they’ve laid off his slider, he’s dropped it into the zone for a strike. I do hope Larry can help him get back on track.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Primetime set-up men have fleeting fame
Cubs were fortunate enough to get two outstanding seasons out of Marmol. Going forward it may be the case where our expectations for him need to be lowered.
You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little messed up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?
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