How does the Cubs bullpen look for a playoff run?

by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 8, 2009 1:12 PM CDT Comment 46 comments

All latest indications show the Cubs with a dominant rotation and a questionable bullpen. However, as we all know these things get shuffled around in the playoffs. Take the example of Jason Marquis, who found his services as a league average starting pitcher were not as valuable as the last man in the bullpen when the postseason begins. The Cubs seem to have delivered a gem with the callup of Randy Wells, and suddenly can field a rotation of 6 plus starting pitchers in Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, Wells, and Marshall. Playoff teams only slate four starters, and can get by with just three in the later rounds. This brings me to the question at hand: What would the Cubs do with their bullpen in the playoffs?

My take as of June 8th: Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly should form the rotation, going in that order. Wells and Marshall have to play a significant role in the pen in some capacity. Whether you groom them to go one inning or two, I would think the Cubs will be able to put more trust in these two than the likes of Heilman, Patton, or Cotts. Recently Angel Guzman has held down the pen during all the strife, and suddenly Jose Asciano has emerged with impressive outings. Are they for real? Is Waddell here to stay? Can Marmol and Gregg ever be trusted again to close out a tight game?

All in all I think the Cubs pitching staff is primed to be very dangerous in the playoffs, if the coaches can find everyone's proper niche. And I think a major element of all this will be having Marshall and Wells ready to come in out of the bullpen in terms of both mindset and conditioning. Will the Cubs pitching staff be ready for the changing roles if they should survive to see postseason play?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Ted Lilly gets the ball in Game 1

The order should be

Lilly, Zambrano, Harden, Dempster — and the last two have a short leash.

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Jun 8, 2009 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

At this point I might rank Wells ahead of Harden.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jun 8, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, with Harden and Marshall in the wings.

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Jun 8, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"in the wings" means "sitting at home" during the playoffs

That is the point of my fanpost.

by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 8, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depending on how Harden recovers...

he may be a viable relief option come playoff time.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Jun 8, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there's no way

Harden and Marshall don’t make a playoff roster. That’s… well. I think it’s very unlikely.

If one of the starters gets injured, or if we need a long reliever… But then, I don’t think Wells replaces Harden for a playoff spot anyway.

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jun 8, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, there's at least one way they wouldn't make a playoff roster...

if we don’t make the playoffs.

Assuming they’re healthy AND that we make the playoffs, I agree that they’ll both be on the roster.

by SouthernCub on Jun 8, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I might rank them both ahead of Dempster

He’s been solid lately, but I’m not entirely convinced he’s not a one year wonder as a starter. Harden has a better history of success.

by Poloplaya14 on Jun 8, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Respectfully disagree

Lilly has been our best pitcher this year. However, in the playoffs, the teams usually have a few power hitters who can hit the long ball. That is Teddy’s only weakness. I would say he would be good as a fourth starter because of that. When every run counts in the playoffs, you can’t get by when you know Lilly will be giving up a few long balls

"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher

by Musicdude10 on Jun 8, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm quite sure the pitching staff will be ready.

But, forgive me for stating the obvious, they – and the rest of the team – need to get there first.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 8, 2009 1:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You beat me to it...

If we get to the playoffs, the pitching should be fine. With all of the days off, you only need 2-3 good arms if your starters can go deep into the game. In fact, guys like Patton won’t even be on the playoff roster. We’ll probably carry 10 pitchers – two long relievers in Marshall/Wells, four starters, and the best four relievers.

But when you’re 3.5 games out of first and tied for third, it’s a bit presumptuous to discuss the playoff rotation.

by SouthernCub on Jun 8, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I view it as a situation where you actually need to think about it BEFORE you get there.

If you ignore the fact that the rotation will get pared down at the end, then you face the possibility of wasting some of your most dependable pitchers simply because they’re not viewed as bullpen arms. We see this time and again. For instance the 2003 Cubs let a very compenent #4 starter ride the pine all postseason while the bullpen needed an extra piece. As long as the Cubs have six good starting pitchers on hand, they should figure out how they might want to use some of these guys in the playoffs.

by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 8, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, I know it's an off day and all...

…but it’s June freakin’ 8th. We – and Lou – will have plenty of time to ponder these things come September. I’ve tried really hard to quell my superstitious side this season, but even considering a discussion about the postseason this early is giving me a rash. (I won’t specify where.)

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 8, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

especially because we don’t really know what the roster will look like for sure come September (ignoring the fact that it may or may not even matter, of course).

by SouthernCub on Jun 8, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can we focus on getting to the playoffs first?

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.

by SackMan on Jun 8, 2009 1:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Playoffs?

What’s that? Ah — Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game! Another game.

/mora’d

WOXY.com - The Future of Rock and Roll

by Gibbon Jockey on Jun 8, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So Heilman can enter games in relief and get torched while Wells sits at home because he's a "starter"?

by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 8, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're a mere 2 games over .500

And you’re putting together a playoff rotation. Right now, we’ve got bigger issues. That’s all I’m sayin.

Our pitching staff has allowed the 3rd least amount of runs in all of MLB (behind LA and SF). Our problem is scoring runs.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.

by SackMan on Jun 8, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, exactly. Way too early to be talking about this.

Chicago Cubs > Milwaukee Brewers

by CUBSfaninYANKEEcountry on Jun 8, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm actually quite optimistic about our bullpen...

Guzman has really developed nicely, Gregg seems to be settling into his role a bit, and Ascanio and Patton may also prove to be dependable. We’ve got a nice pitcher in Marshall for long relief and we will have an additional arm in the bullpen IF we make the playoffs. If Marmol can settle back into form then I believe our bullpen will no longer be a weakness.

Seems to me that many teams juggle the bullpen earlier in the season in order to find the proper roles for every player. I think we’re ironing out the bullpen now and it’s starting to take shape.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Jun 8, 2009 1:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm keeping my expectations of Patton relatively low...

…but I’m definitely bullish on Ascanio, too. 12 Ks in 10.2 IP is something to build on.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 8, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

dPat gets to be on the DL

if harden gets back before anyone gets hurt

by tim815 on Jun 8, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Waddell will go back to AAA instead...

With Marshall going to the bullpen.

by SouthernCub on Jun 8, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see two more relievers coming up from the minors

Samardzija will definitely be on the roster by September, if not earlier, and his only postseason role would be in the bullpen.

I also see one more guy like Parker, Cashner, or Reinhold eventually replacing either someone who gets hurt or who is ineffective (namely, Patton and Heilman). That guy would probably not make the postseason roster.

Starting the season: Gregg, Marmol, Heilman, Cotts, Guzman, Patton, Vizcaino
Now: Gregg, Marmol, Guzman, Marshall, Ascanio, Patton, Waddell
Ending the season: Gregg, Marmol, Guzman, Marshall, Ascanio, Samardzija

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Jun 8, 2009 2:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying Heilman will be DL'd or traded?

And isn’t Jeff Stevens “next in line” for a cup of coffee?

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 8, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd have to imagine that Stevens would get the nod before the lower guys...

But I could see Heilman getting a mysterious injury near Aug 31 and ultimately not being on the playoff roster if he doesn’t improve.

by SouthernCub on Jun 8, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know the rosters expand on Sept 1.

He doesn’t have to fall in a hot tub or anything.

Samardzija and Stevens could dominate. Stevens looks ready, Samardzija needs to get his split velocity up to be effective. Then once he gets that up the Cubs need to realize that he’s a RELIEVER. One plus pitch and a good pitch= reliever.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on Jun 8, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

but in order to make a playoff roster, you have to be an the 25 active roster on 8/31 or replace an injured player who was on it.

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Jun 8, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, but to be eligible for the playoffs, you have to be there Aug 31...

or replacing somebody who is on the DL as of Aug 31.

Now, it’s possible that Fox and Freel will stay on the DL all year, which will minimize the need for a move. But otherwise, if they aren’t in the big leagues as of Aug 31, they aren’t going to be on the roster. Hence my statement about DLing him.

But yes, it is possible that he could not get a DL stint and still not be on the playoff roster.

by SouthernCub on Jun 8, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops thanks...

You don’t really think of those rules sometimes. haha

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on Jun 8, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I forgot about Stevens.

And, yes, I think Heilman will be out of the picture by September.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Jun 8, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It looks like crap! Last time I checked

we were THIRD in the division and SEVENTH in the wild card.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jun 8, 2009 2:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not Scottish either!

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 8, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually we're fourth in the WC, not seventh...

We’re seventh overall in the NL, but three of the teams ahead of us would be division winners.

We’re 3.5 games out of the division and 1.5 games out of the wild card.

by SouthernCub on Jun 8, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, read that wrong. I counted the division winners, too, you're right.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Jun 8, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but...but

that’s not bad at all.

And we’re a terrible team, right?

/sarcasm

by chitownhawkeye on Jun 8, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you ever want to

check the Wild Card standings in June. That’s like conceding the division. Screw the Wild Card. Our division stinks, and we’re just above stinking. Why not us?

"I'll never forget how I felt last October." ~Kosuke Fukudome

by Goodie1969 on Jun 8, 2009 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scary - and not in a good way!

n/t

by MN exile on Jun 8, 2009 2:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Luckily for us, though.

Come playoff time, with the higher frequency of off-days, we won’t need more than 3-4 solid guys with our rotation. That means we won’t really need to use guys like Heilman for more than mop-up duty. If Marmol can return to his dominant self, I think we’re not nearly as bad as most Cub fans seem to think. Guzman is not fluke; we always knew he had great stuff and it was just a confidence/health issue. Gregg’s spotty, but decent enough. If Ascanio/Stevens/Samardzija can step up, that’s icing on the cake. I do think we need a good lefty though. If Marsh can’t do it, we need to trade for a guy (Arthur Rhodes if the Reds start to slip?).

by Poloplaya14 on Jun 8, 2009 4:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well Guzman had control problems.

Bad ones too.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on Jun 8, 2009 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

but I think the control problems were an extension of his confidence problems. Guzman definitely has the track record of minor league success to suggest he can be this good for a whole season.

by Poloplaya14 on Jun 8, 2009 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guzman's problems

historically have been health-related more than ability.

by lookingdeadred on Jun 9, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

playoff rotation

If the Cubs start at home, rotation as follows: Lilly, Dempster, Zambrano and Harden (if healthy). If the Cubs open up on the road: Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster and Harden.

by lookingdeadred on Jun 9, 2009 9:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

...and the bullpen?

by Jerry Mumphrey on Jun 9, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lilly, clone of Lilly, Lilly's kid brother, Lilly

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 9, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

TBD

The two big questions are Marmol and who is the bullpen lefty. Gregg seems to have righted his ship and has been pitching pretty well, as well as St Kerry did for the Cubs last year. Guzman is showing signs of being a solid if not dominant late inning guy. Ascanio has also been impressive of late, but it is way too soon to tell if he can keep it going. I think Heilman will be fine in his middle innings role. They need Marmol to get his act together and be the dominant late inning guy he was for them last year. I would like them to get a proven lefty as I am just not comfortable with Marshall in the pen.

by lookingdeadred on Jun 10, 2009 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs