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Cubs Draft Preview-The Rest of the Pack

Our series of Draft previews concludes today with a look at seven players whom the Cubs might also land at pick #31. Once again Matt Marsden picks out five gems to look at.  Additionally, this time, I dip my toes into the water and give you a preview of two players unlikely to still be on the board when the Cubs pick but whom the Cubs might jump on if they slide.

Just remember, the 2009 MLB Draft starts tomorrow at 5pm Central. You can watch on the MLB Network or on MLB.com, so that those of you whose television provider does not carry the MLB Network can still watch on-line.

Tomorrow we'll be back with a poll on whom the Cubs should pick and an Open Draft Thread for discussion.

Star-divide

The first five write-ups in the blockquotes are by Matt, I wrote the final two.
Brett Jackson, OF, California

Jackson is one of the best athletes in this year's class.  He is a left-handed hitter and projects to be a very good defender in center.  Jackson is known as a gritty, aggressive player and is a leader in the Cal clubhouse.  There is just one fairly significant problem with Jackson.  He can't hit.  Well, that is not exactly true, but Jackson struck out 61 times in 218 at-bats this year (28% of the time) and hit a pedestrian .321/.407/.564.  He does have great bat speed and hits to all fields.  Jackson has some power, but it does not project to be more than average in the bigs.  Base running is another area Jackson needs work.  Despite his strong speed, Jackson has just 11 steals and was caught 5 times.  Brett Jackson is toolsy, but still very raw.  I would be less than enthused with this pick, though he does have more upside than Pollock.

Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)

I have been surprised to hear the Cubs connected to a couple high school arms.  The first is left-hander Chad James.  After an unimpressive junior season, James made big strides with his fastball and curve.  The fastball sits in the low-90's and James also has the top-rated changeup among high school arms this year.  He also has a great pitchers frame at 6'4" and 205 lbs. and still has some room to fill out, which could add a little more to the fastball down the road.  James would appear to be a solid pick.  The Cubs could use some pitching depth, especially left-handers, in the system.  It is hard not to like a high school pitcher with a changeup that advanced.

Garrett Gould, RHP, Maize HS (KS)

Another high school pitcher the Cubs have been connected to, Gould's frame is nearly identical to James, at 6'4" and 200 lbs. He too can add a tick or two to the fastball down the road, which already sits at 91-94. His best pitch is a power curve that is probably the best in the country.  Gould does not throw much of a changeup and will need to add one in pro ball.  After watching some video of him, I was a little concerned with his mechanics.  Gould does not use his lower half well, putting added stress on the arm.  Also, he tends to fall towards first-base (similar to Kerry Wood) in his follow through.  His higher arm slot means there is not much likely to be much deception or movement on the fastball.  Gould has some power stuff, but will need to make some big changes in order to be a successful big league pitcher.

Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU

The best overall athlete in the draft, Mitchell may be the most intriguing players out there.  He is very raw since he had been playing both football and baseball for the Tigers.  Mitchell has made great strides in his game this year, putting up a .325/.471/.557 line.  As you can see by the OBP, Mitchell has impressive discipline at the plate.  This has been one of his biggest areas of improvement and Mitchell has been almost been passive at the plate, which caused many of his 61 strikeouts on the season.  He is ridiculously fast, stealing 35 bases this season, but still needs to get better jumps.  Because of his speed, Mitchell can be a very good center-fielder, but needs work on route-running.  As you can see, Mitchell is very much a work in progress and I prefer guys this raw to be high school players, but I am optimistic about Mitchell because of his plate discipline.  His power potential is impressive as well, though he needs less of an upper-cut to reduce the strikeouts.

Luke Bailey, C, Troup County HS (GA)

Bailey is a wild card.  There is no way he is taken in the first round.  Bailey is more likely to be a 4th or 5th round pick at this point.  Earlier this year, Bailey was hands down the top high school (and overall) catching prospect, topping an incredibly talented class.  He will not go in the mid-first round as originally thought because Bailey had Tommy John surgery in April.  This was obviously the main factor in his drop in stock.  That said, there are no concerns about his arm or overall defense long-term.  Bailey is a very good athlete, making him very mobile behind the plate and a gun reaching the low 90's.  Before going down with TJ, Bailey was struggling some at the plate.  Once he can find a consistent swing, Bailey should be able to hit for decent average and power down the road.  Bailey could be a good fit for the Cubs, as they have taken high upside guys (though mainly pitchers) with their middle round picks in the past.  

I was surprised to see James and Gould connected to the Cubs, since Wilken has not been much of a fan of high school players, especially arms.  James would be a nice pick if he fell that far, but I am not as high on Gould.  Both would be a better option than Jackson, in my opinion.  It looks like Pollock and Arnett are the top two targets, with this group being other options if those two are gone.  My guess is that Wilken would take Jackson first of this group.

Josh here again. If you click on the Gould link, you can see him pitching at Wrigley Field. And here's my look at two players that aren't likely to be available, but it's certainly possible that they fall all the way to #31.

Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri

By all rights, there is no way that Kyle Gibson should be available when the Cubs pick at #31. Gibson has top-of-the-rotation stuff with a low 90’s fastball, a nasty low 80’s changeup and while he doesn’t have great command of it yet, a sharp breaking slider that is potentially a devastating out-pitch in the majors. At 6’6", he’s got the size that scouts look for, although at 208 lbs. he might need to put on some weight. Up until last week, every draft analyst had him going in the top ten. At Mizzou, he had an amazing 131/19 K/BB ratio in 106.2 innings. He’s been compared to the AngelsJohn Lackey.

So why might Gibson be available when the Cubs pick at #31? During his last two starts, there was a noticeable drop in velocity from Gibson.  His fastball was clocked in the low 80s. It was then revealed that he has a stress fracture in his right forearm. Gibson’s contract demands and injury status have him dropping like a rock on draft boards, making him an intriguing high-risk/high-reward pick.

Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State

The left-handed center fielder is another potential leadoff hitter in center field. He’s a five-tool outfielder, although none of his skills really jump out as being all that impressive. At the plate, he shows good plate discipline and an ability to make consistent contact. His power isn’t that impressive yet, but at 6’4", 195 lbs., scouts believe he could develop at least fair power as he progresses. He has a slight hitch in his swing, but he has very quick wrists that compensate. His speed is good and he stole 15 bases in 17 attempts this season. Wheeler was dominating at the plate this season, hitting .385 with a .494 OBP and 18 home runs, but unfortunately most of that cam against relatively weak WAC competition. Where Wheeler goes in the draft is a bit of a mystery, as rumors have him linked as high as the Rockies at #11 or lasting all the way to the Cubs at #31. My gut tells me that Wheeler is long gone by the time the Cubs pick, but if he’s still there, the Cubs will grab him.

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I like the sound of Jared Mitchell

Athletic guy with plate discipline sounds like a guy with a future.

by Poloplaya14 on Jun 8, 2009 2:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i agree

he looks pretty good to me. im not to big on Pollock or JAckson

by Glacier on Jun 8, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nick Franklin

Switch hitting SS, Lake Brantley HS. One scout called him a switch hitting Michael Young. 6’1", strong arm, soft hands. Won starting SS position on USA National Youth team. Also took mound as their closer with low 90’s fastball. Hit .471 last year and really stepped it up in the playoffs where he hit .594 in 32 AB with 3 HR and 12RBI.

If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.

by tharr on Jun 8, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

There may be no bigger Nick Franklin fan than myself

But he will probably go supp. 1st or 2nd round. Most probably have other prep SS, Jiovanni Mier ranked ahead of Franklin a bit.

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 8, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Houston is supposedly

looking at Mier. He’s already committed to USC but that may not have any influence on his decision if the money and team is right for him. However, as I said before, I’d like to see the Cubs draft for need and a switch hitting speedster with line drive power and decent size is exactly what I’d look for. Of course, that means we probably get a Dave Kingman clone. Again, thanks for your and Josh’s work on this draft. There’s not nearly the hype in baseball as in the NFL and NBA.

If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.

by tharr on Jun 8, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was surprised

that he was hitting sixth in a post-season game on espn

by tim815 on Jun 8, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Gould from Maize?

That was my high school’s chief rival when I was there. Small world.

Thanks for all the information; these are really interesting reads.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Jun 8, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

he is for Maize

glad you enjoyed!

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 8, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

from*

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 8, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't believe

You dont have AJ Pollock mentioned at all in that list, he has time and time again shown up as our number 1 pick in the draft. I honestly think Kyle Gibson will be there when it’s time for the Cubs to go on the clock.

by utkcub on Jun 8, 2009 3:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Gibson

Huge Cubs fan, so being drafted by the Cubs would probably be a dream come true for him.

As a Mizzou fan it would be nice to have somebody on the Cubs that went to Mizzou.

Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.

by nji232 on Jun 8, 2009 3:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The problem is

if he’s healthy, someone takes him long before we pick. If he isn’t healthy, would we want him?

The issue on Gibson is how well do you think he’s going to recover?

by Josh77 on Jun 8, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I think if the injury is a one time thing without a history of injuries then you can justify the risk. On the other hand who knows how an arm injury will heal.

If its up to me, I would take him, but that is 100% based on him being from Mizzou.

Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.

by nji232 on Jun 8, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like a risk worth taking

Stress fracture doesn’t seem like one of those injuries that will linger and it isn’t an injury that was caused by poor mechanics. If he is available at 31 he would be a steal

by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Jun 8, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We don't know

how the stress fracture was caused, that’s the worrisome thing. If it was a comebacker to the mound, you wouldn’t worry.

It’s really just the uncertainty.

by Josh77 on Jun 8, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats the thing with stress fractures

my sister had one for over a week and didn’t even know it. She just woke up one day and her foot hurt she kept avoiding the doctor thinking the pain would go away and it didnt. Turns out she had a stress fracture but she definitely doesnt do any type of activity that I could really think of that would have caused it and she had no idea how it was caused.

by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Jun 8, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also with Gibson

can his frame continue to handle throwing so hard? He’s added muscle since being drafted out of high school, but is still rail-thin.

I know he had some issues in high school regarding his right arm, too.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Jun 9, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good questions

I wish I had answers.

by Josh77 on Jun 9, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just get it right !!!!

Cub organization currently has ONE positional prospect of legitimate noteworthiness and that is Josh Vitters. ONE. Enough of this b.s. The fundamental inability to scout, select and develop positional talent continues to be the achilles heel of this franchise, and results in Hendry spending WAY TOO MUCH MONEY on free agents each year.

Tim Wilken, you need to stand up and DELIVER. I have been completely unimpressed with Wilken so far.

You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little messed up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?

by BLou on Jun 8, 2009 3:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Stress fracture

Gibson is expected to only miss 5-6 weeks and could even play a bit late in august after he signs

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 8, 2009 3:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Brett Jackson

Hope the Yankees or Rays or someone take him ahead of the Cubs. I want no part of him. If the Cubs go college OF, I sure hope they can get Wheeler or Mitchell. I’d love to get James but I’ve seen him going at 18 to the Marlins far too many times (they apparently do well in Oklahoma) so I doubt he’d make it to 21.

by Raisin on Jun 8, 2009 4:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Muskat sez

Pollock or Wheeler.

Al’s “Deep Goat” says the Cubs aren’t that into Pollock. I’d love it if Wheeler fell to us. I wouldn’t mind Pollock either—I think they’re very similar prospects.

I’d add my voice to the “no” on Brett Jackson.

by Josh77 on Jun 8, 2009 4:49 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Andy Oliver

Keith Law and PG Crosschecker both mocked Andy Oliver to the Cubs. Both mocks are from today.

by Raisin on Jun 8, 2009 5:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sickels' Take on Oliver

Link

Andy Oliver, Oklahoma State: STRENGTHS: 90-95 MPH fastball, good slider, has flashed a changeup, good control, excellent sophomore season last year, strong and durable. WEAKNESSES: Lost his plus curveball this year; needs to refine changeup and slider, weaker-than-expected performance this spring, Scott Boras client.

I still get a weird feeling that Baylor LHP/OF Aaron Miller is a big sleeper for that pick. He’ll be available, he should be signable, and he profiles very nicely as a LHP. There’s enough about him that fits the Cubs’ profile that he wouldn’t surprise me at all at 31.

However, I think a college OF is a near-inevitability. I’m hoping for Mitchell, would be okay with Wheeler or Pollock, and would be pissed off with Jackson. I expect to be pissed off tomorrow.

by Outshined_One on Jun 8, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on Miller

The slider is nasty and has made big improvements since focusing more on pitching. Taking him in the first would be an over-draft, but could be around when the Cubs pick in the 2nd

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 9, 2009 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which goes to show

just how volatile this draft is. That’s a completely new one to me, although Oliver is a power lefty who has been projected to go late in the first round.

I have a hard time believing they pass on Wheeler if he’s available.

by Josh77 on Jun 8, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

If Wheeler is there, I bet he is the pick.

by rlpete on Jun 9, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Law

Also has Pittsburgh taking Tony Sanchez, whom Kevin Goldstein had going to Boston at #28 two weeks ago. He also has Pittsburgh considering Pollock and Tim Wheeler, and then has Wheeler falling past us to Colorado at #32.

It’s a weird draft.

by Josh77 on Jun 8, 2009 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pittsburgh

That’s working under the theory the Pirates go cheap in the draft so they can splurge in Latin America on Miguel Sano.

by Raisin on Jun 8, 2009 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's true

I forgot about that.

by Josh77 on Jun 8, 2009 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd love to see the Cubs take....

….Ball State OF Jeremy Hazelbaker. I was able to watch and call quite games this year and he definitely has the tools to make it all the way to the majors. He has great speed, draws walks rather well, and can rake the ball to the gaps and over the fence.

"The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love." ~Bryant Gumbel

by gwl17 on Jun 8, 2009 5:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

He could be a 3rd or 4th round pick

I could definitely see the Cubs taking him. His profile sounds like a Wilken pick.

by Raisin on Jun 8, 2009 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not likely to be there but I was hoping for Mike Trout

Looks like a good future CF or more likely corner OF. Appears he’ll be going in the early to mid-20’s.

by rlpete on Jun 9, 2009 8:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Will be gone

I think the Astros take him at #21. He has some upside, but I am very skeptical of cold weather high school players

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 9, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whatever happens tonight

I just pray that we don’t end up with Brett Jackson or AJ Pollock!!! Those guys are topped out and if everything went right, might, I say might, end up as MLB 4th or 5th outfielders. Please, please don’t take another Tyler Colvin!!! If Purke or Scheppers or Grant Green or Kyle Gibson are there at #31, we better be snatching them up!!

"He can't hit, he can't field, he can't run—all he can do is beat you."

by Itchy on Jun 9, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Scratch Gibson

he’s got a stress fracture and they say that leads to elbow problems. Heard that everyone is steering clear, may fall to 4, 5th round.

"He can't hit, he can't field, he can't run—all he can do is beat you."

by Itchy on Jun 9, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're wrong on Jackson

Jackson is a potential superstar or complete bust. He’s not a safe, 4th outfielder pick.

by Josh77 on Jun 9, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't know about superstar

Just doesn’t have the power potential, but certainly above-average and occasional all-star is a possibility.

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 9, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He whiffs to much against inferior pitching and using an aluminum bat!!

I don’t want him on the Cubs.

"He can't hit, he can't field, he can't run—all he can do is beat you."

by Itchy on Jun 9, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're correct

Superstar is too strong a word. He’s got the athleticism to be a strong starter with good power and great defense in CF. But no, he’s not likely to be Carlos Beltran.

by Josh77 on Jun 9, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Should be an interesting draft

I’ve seen numerous reports today that some players are sliding due to what is being viewed as ridiculous signing bonuses especially for some of the high school players. That could mean that Pollock goes before the Cubs. Here is the latest BA mock draft with the Cubs picking Brett Jackson :-(

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2009/268312.html

by rlpete on Jun 9, 2009 12:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

They also picked

the Cubs to take Tim Melville in the 1st last year. Melville didn’t go until the 4th round to the Royals. Keep that in mind. It does not make it set in stone.

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 9, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's just guesswork

but still interesting to see nevertheless.

by rlpete on Jun 9, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, it is very interesting

many underlying stories and issues with each guy after Strasburg and Ackley. It’s a total crapshoot. My ultimate pick would be Matt Purke if he somehow fell to us due to his high $$ demands.

"He can't hit, he can't field, he can't run—all he can do is beat you."

by Itchy on Jun 9, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

With the Cubs ownership situation

I just don’t see them breaking the bank for Purke. I could be wrong though.

by Josh77 on Jun 9, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

BA

seems to think they’re willing to break the bank for Turnerm though.

by Raisin on Jun 9, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did they get Pawelek?

I remember being surprised when I heard the Cubs take Pawelek. The 2 names they were associated to a lot before that draft were Cliff Pennington and Tyler Greene. That was the first draft I followed (and the most talented one) and could very well have missed that.

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jun 9, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, they nailed Pawelek

That year, BA got something like 19 of the first 20 picks right. BA kept going back and forth between Hochevar and Pawelek that year for the Cubs.

They also would have nailed Vitters in 2007 but they had him going to KC and gave the Cubs the #2 guy on Wilken’s board, Jarrod Parker.

by Raisin on Jun 9, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I got some info

last night that has softened my opposition to Jackson. I’d still rather have Wheeler, Pollock or Mitchell, but if we take Jacskon, I’m hopeful he can produce. I still think he’s a risky pick though.

by Josh77 on Jun 9, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just someone who knows Jackson and Cal

told me that Jackson’s K problems are because he disagrees with college umpires too much. This person believes Jackson is too selective.

Knowing the quality of college umpires, this is a believable, although maybe a little rosy, explanation. I don’t think that can be the entire story, but I believe it could contribute to the issue.

by Josh77 on Jun 9, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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