You haven’t provided any. None at all. All you have given us is your contention that “your eyes” tell you that his arm slot has dropped. Why don’t you post some video or screen caps?

Also, CalCalendar says that the pitch F/X data show the arm slot hasn’t changed.

not buying that argument just yet. Maybe he isn’t spiking above 95 as often as last year but his range is damn near the exact same. His average velocity per start isnt that far off as you can tell.

If you do not believe a drop from 21/24 to 7/13 is not significant, I’m suprised.

Also of note Harden had 20 consecutive starts last year of 95+ MPH. And as he tired late in the year, he had only 1 of his last 4 starts over 95+ MPH. Yep, 3 of his last 4 starts of the year he could not hit 95+ MPH. A case could be made to say Harden has failed to hit 95+ MPH in 9 of his last 17 starts—more than 50% of the time after 20 consecutive starts of 95+ MPH.

It has been discussed ad nauseum on this board about keeping Harden fresh for the end of the year as it’s commoin knowledge he tired at the end of 2008. So, I don’t believe we need his second-half of 2009 data to show a downward trend of his top-end fastball velocity.

first of all, there is nothing you have provided that shows Harden’s release point in 2008 versus 2009 to make a comparison.

Secondly, the link you provided PROVES my point as it shows the varying release points and different heights Zambrano released his pitches. Zambrano’s 4-seamer is released HIGHER than his 2-seamer. Agree? It’s visual evidence you provided.

I am asking if you have data that shows Harden is releasing his 4-seam and 2-seam at the same height or if his arm slot has dropped in 2008 versus 2009.

I can’t make this more clear to you. Where is the data that shows Harden is throwing in the same exact arm slot or motion as in 2008? Perhaps Harden is throwing more 2-seam fastballs versus 4-seam fastballs. Why? I don’t know, but offer he may be hurt which diminishes his ability to throw in the high 90’s. Or maybe he has just naturally dropped his arm slot a couple of inches prohibiting him from maxing out his velocity.

I am offering 2 reasons, one mechanical and one physical, and asking questions without getting the data you tell me is concrete eveidence that I am wrong and you are right. It’s my opinion that he has a mechanical flaw that may be caused by injury or is just a mechanical flaw. If you can show me what I have asked for, then I can change my opinion as new data would tell me.

I am asking for a comparison between ’08 and ’09. I do not believe the data shows the comparison. Is that correct?

…is for him to have the exact same arm slot for both his fastball and his change. If for some reason they aren’t, it allows hitters to recognize when one or the other is coming.

It could be a mechanical thing he needs to workout, it could be a mental funk, or it could be a physical issue that is holding him back.

it seems like its been forever since we saw the good Rich but its still a small sample size. This could correct itself. Right now there isn’t an obvious anwser. He seems healthy, his velocity and movement are the same as last year when people couldnt buy a hit off him.

All we know for sure is different is that Rich isn’t changing fastballs speeds as much as he was last year and perhaps his pitch selection needs to be altered.

Personally, I think it could be what I said above Harden only has two pitches. Hitters might be sitting on one of the two (most likely the fastball) and waiting for it. So far Rich is obliging by throwing that fastball in a bad spot.

 I did all this to find a cause. And believe me, I did a lot of work on it. Maybe I’m not sharp enough to track it down, but to me it doesn’t look like there’s one reason. Instead, bad luck and small sample size seem to be the main culprits, along with pitching more up in the zone. But I’d like to look at location charts for this year vs. last year before I solidify my opinion on that.

he’s hurt (not saying he needs surgery or his arm is hanging by a thread). Despite what the numbers/programs say, he has a lower arm slot than last year. Maybe 3-4 inches lower. His shoulder flexibility may be limited from all the off-season work as well. He could have a tighter shoulder capsule than before. It’s kind of like watching side-by-side video—you will see very small changes, but they have large impacts on the player.

You can be hurt and still throw the same MPH for a time, but command will suffer. And ultimately the arm will break down. His command is not near what it was in 2008.

I’ve followed him closely from his 2001 and 2002 minor league seasons and watched Rick Peterson put him through the computer analysis models with Dr. Andrews (I believe) in the off-season.

I feel I can speak because it is execatly what happened to me when I pitched leading to a major recontruction in 1990.

harry. Keep plugging away, I would bet in a year or so you will be on some teams payroll.