Cardinals are playing over their heads... and only have 49-42 to show for it
by IllinoisCubs on Jul 13, 2009 9:32 PM CDT
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PrintFirst and foremost with any Cardinals team there is Albert Pujols. The stat that pops out to me is .723 SLG. Take a look at the list of the single season leaders for slugging average. You have a mix of old-timers, 1990s/2000s roid users, and a couple of Coors Field inflated seasons until you get to around No. 54: Jim Thome slugged .677 in 2002. Now Albert Pujols slugged .671 in 2006 and he is clearly capable of slugging .680 and besting Thome's 2002. Even then, I would say Albert Pujols is set for a split along his 2006 season where he hits more doubles instead of HRs. Bottom line: Albert Pujols had one of the single best halves in baseball: Cards are 49-42
Next, take a look at Ryan Franklin. He has converted 21 of his 22 SV situations. His one blown save? He even ended up getting the win. Franklin's 2009 line is 0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and a .165 BAA. His 07 & 08 combined line is 3.28 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .256 BAA. For his 2009 numbers to normalize... well just look at his 2006 splits to get an idea.
Other outliers in the pen include Kyle McClellan and Trever Miller but I'm willing to cut McClellan a break because he might just be the real deal and Trever Miller is a lefty and LaRussa is all about the situations (this is being really generous though). Take a look at their stats and let me know if you see anything else glaring in the pen (positive or negative).
For the starting rotation, I give you Joel Pineiro. I understand that he is throwing more sinkers and those lead to more ground balls. However, Pineiro has turned into a superior version of Brandon Webb, Chien-Ming Wang and Derek Lowe. His GB% is on pace with each sinkerballer at their height and his HR/F% is even better. Pineiro's success will rely on pinpoint control and an inability on the NL's part to come up with appropiate scouting reports. Even then, his HR/F% is unsustainable and will go up.
The best part is, they are getting these otherworldy performances and have just a 49-42 record to show for it. Hell since May 1st, the Cards have a losing record of 32-35. I'm going to kick around some numbers on the Cubs and the Brewers versus their performance, but if the Cards can't even run away with the division while getting historic performances, I'm not too worried about them down the stretch. They will fall back all by themselves.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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You forgot one thing
They are the smartest team in the NL. They rarely make fundamental mistakes.
Whereas the Cubs have stupid at-bats, run the bases like five-year-olds playing T-Ball and have at least three natural-born DHs playing defense.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
have at least three natural-born DHs playing defense.
The Cubs have been a very good defensive team this year and are one of the best in the majors in terms of runs allowed. Other than Jake Fox and maybe Hoffpauir (both of whom rarely play defense on a healthy Cubs team) there’s not a single “natural born DH” on that field.
oh, please.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
no, he's not.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Your refusal to see the truth
hard at work again
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't know what your problem is
but Bradley is + defenders. You can argue it all you want; the facts are the facts.
Bradley has a .991 fld% this year, compared to .984 for the league
Soriano, saving this year, where he has certainly struggled, is usually close to league averages.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Fielding PCT is, as you know, not the best defensive measure.
If you have others, let’s see ’em.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Drew bases arguments on stats
Drew will even see the positive when it isn’t there and will argue a player’s in game performance without even seeing the game.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
stats are deceiving
In alot of ways.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Milton Bradley
obp is a ridiculous example.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Randy Wells W-L
record is another.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
All I'm saying is....
Don’t make your case based off one stat.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Wins and losses are a useless stat
You can’t condemn stats as a whole because a poorly designed one fails at its job.
W-L
isn’t a good stat to evaluate individual pitcher performance. Randy Wells has an ERA+ of 162, averages 6.3 Ks per 9 innings of play, and 3.12 Ks per BB.
This is what is known as applying statistics appropriately.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Stats don't win games
Good Baseball play does!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Statistics
reflect the quality of a ballplayer’s play. Don’t confuse causation with correlation.
Milton Bradley’s stats, and Alfonso Soriano’s stats are a record of their past play, and are a potential indicator of how they will do in the future. That’s all. But when you say “MILTON BRADLEY SUCKS” and I point to his fairly good career line of .278/.371/.452/.822 you can’t just say “those numbers don’t mean anything.”
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Not neccessarily
Good baseball play also involves hitting a grounder to the right side so that the runner at 2nd can get to 3rd with less than 2 outs. Does that help your obp or avg? All I’m saying stats can’t be the foundation of all arguments. They are very deceiving at times. I understand them and in some respects agree with you but there is times bad baseball play don’t get put onto a stat sheet.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Those kinds of things are the exception not the rules.
The idea that a player might be significantly more valuable than his stats indicate because he’s more likely to make a productive out is a little far fetched. I’m not saying it’s not a part of their value, I just doubt it’s significant.
an clarification
By productive out I mean productive outs that aren’t already captured in statistics (SACs and RBI’s already capture a fair bit of this).
Run probability actually decreases when going from 1 out and a runner on 2nd to 2 outs and a runner on third (from .65 to .38) so the notion that the groundout was productive is false anyway. It was a better outcome than a grounder to the left side (because it advanced the runner) but it was still a bad outcome.
it helps your
RBIs. It’s true the offensive statistics are easier to track then defensive ones, but every action on a baseball field can be tracked by stats.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
You go out...
and commit to boneheaded errors in the field that makes your ppitcher work longer and harder, cost your team a run etc. Then go to the plate and get 2 walks and don’t score. Sure your obp goes up but did you help your team that game??
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
please
elucidate on these errors? Since Milton Bradley has made one, I’m interested to know how it lead to runs.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
He also has a FIP of 3.66
Implying his ERA will be movin on up
How is that deceiving?
It represents how many times he’s gotten on base per plate appearance. I think maybe you’re just confused what that stat is for.
You used one stat
How about his defensive blunders? How about his lack of power or rbi?
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Milton Bradley
2009: One error.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
How about at least 10 balls I can think of
He should have caught? Won’t go down as an error but sure hurt his team!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
please
be specific.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Here are the stats on Milton Bradely
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=369&position=OF
The sun will shine in '69
Bradley
UZR/150 of -18.2!!!!!!!!!!
yeah, he’s good /SARCASM
It’s hard to make errors when you can’t get to the damn ball.
Um, yeah, it appears you're misinterpreting that number.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
What actually is funny is...
that according to Fangraph, Milton would be expected to pay 200k to a team to let him play if he was a free agent.
The sun will shine in '69
His lack of power and RBI's are reflected in his poor slugging and... rbi's
I’m not sure what you’re asking here. Do you think all stats should encompass all aspects of a player?
If that’s what you’re looking for, use WAR or WARP3. His WAR this season has reflected his poor play.
Reflected his poor play??
Drew did you hear that? Milton Bradley has played poor this season thus far!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Hahahahahaha
I love that to you it’s a bad thing to defer to stats when two people have made differing observations.
darn those facts
DARN THEM TO HECK!
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions
From fangraphs:
RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.
Milton Bradley Career: 17.1
Miton Bradley 2009 so far: -5.8
UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.
Miton Bradley Career: 22.0
Milton Bradley 2009 so far: -7.7
UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.
Milton Bradley Career: 5.5
Milton Bradley 2009 so far: -18.2
So, either he’s completely falling apart, or he’s going to progress closer to his averages. Obviously, I think it’s the latter.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
that too.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Bradely played what position last year with the Rangers?
I believe most of his time was spent as the DH was it not?
The sun will shine in '69
Well, his potential to get hurt I mean.
by GoCubbies34 on Jul 14, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
No, it had nothing to do with potential to get hurt
It had to do with him already being hurt.
No one expected him to come back from his injury fast enough to play last season at all, let alone almost a full season. But he certainly wasn’t ready in his rehab cycle to play defense.
What is it with you...
You go onto every thread and question everyone anytime anything negative is said.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Wreckard ican be fairly negative himself...
on certain issues. IMO, he does a good job disputing commonly held notions that are, well, incorrect. It’s not about being negative, but it is about contradicting the hyperbole that gets tossed around here like candy.
This season IS over. -BLou 6/30/09
What facts??
So your wrong if you criticize bad play and don’t see the positive in everything?
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Well specifically in this case
You’re wrong if you think that Soriano and Bradley are poor defenders at their position. The numbers over their careers just don’t back that up.
What? They're plus defenders
Are you honestly telling me that your acute eye for scouting is more accurate than John Dewan’s?
Over the past 3 years, Soriano was the most valuable defensive left fielder in baseball. Granted, Soriano’s fielding is propped up by his arm, which is extremely good. But that’s part of a player’s defensive value.
See Drew’s post on Bradley; he too has been a plus defender his entire career.
I think you have two main problems here: one is that you aren’t capable of seeing fielders in context – being the best left fielder is sort of like being the tallest midget; there’s a lot of awful, awful fielding left fielders.
The second and more serious problem is that you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Nope
I sure don’t. Soriano is mvp defensive left fielder? I will stop conversation with you right there.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Soriano is not a plus defender!!
period
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Someone should be sure to let John Dewan know
…that his well-researched, peer-reviewed, and well-received system of fielding metrics has been refuted by your expert eyes.
I’m sure he will be extremely disappointed to learn this, and may have to institute a recall on his book.
oh for heaven's sake.
For his OF career, Soriano is a 24.4 UZR player.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm only posting here to ask you, Wreckard...
… and not taking one side or the other here: is it possible that the statistical record regarding Soriano & Bradley could be wrong?
Or could it be wrong based only on this season?
If you can write a reasonable reply to this, I’d be interested.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Well, I don't think it's a matter of the numbers being wrong
…so much as understanding where they come from. Soriano’s historic numbers are obviously propped up by his throwing arm. If you take that away from him, he looks like a below average fielder. But it’s a little disingenuous to do that – defense is about run prevention, it shouldn’t matter how that occurs.
I’m not sure what you’ve seen from Bradley that makes you think the numbers would be wrong on him; to me, he’s lived up to both his reputation and his statistics, both of which said he was going to come in and be a plus fielder. He’s shown good range, a good arm, and for the most part has given us quality defense. I think Bradley’s a bit victimized by confirmation bias – a lot of people expect the worst, so the bad things are more likely to be remembered (ball-in-the-stands-gate, the 2 balls lost in the sun).
Yeah, I think you're right on this one.
The stats actually back up my personal observations. The three incidents you mention appear to be isolated. The only thing that appears to be different about Bradley now is that he doesn’t have the speed he once did, likely due to the knee injury from 2007. He doesn’t show much speed in either the outfield or on the bases.
I sure hope he starts hitting beginning on Thursday.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I agree about Bradley's defense as well.
He’s, simply, a smart ballplayer: Takes good routes, plays balls off the wall well, hits the cutoff man, etc. etc. He does a lot of little things that get overlooked because they appear routine. He may well have lost or step or two, but he compensates with good fundamentals. And his career UZR numbers in RF and CF are well above league average.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
This made want to laugh - until I realized it was true.
run the bases like five-year-olds playing T-Ball
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jul 14, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Good Lord, the children really ran amok with THAT thread, didn't they?
How about Bradley and Soriano are, at this stage of their careers, injury-prone, and will almost certainly finish their careers as DHs?
Bradley, in my opinion, isn’t a bad defender. He’s not wondrous, but he’s not really a deteriment.
However, every time he actually leaves the field on his own power at the end of a half-inning, I sigh in relief. Such a player is not long for the outfield.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Indeed, they did.
I agree with you on Bradley. Decent fielder, very fragile.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jul 14, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Except for that ball that went between Pujols legs
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
I can see
the Cards falling off. I can see the Brewers falling off.
We’ll see what happens.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
Of course you would...
see a Tony Larussa team falling off. Not gonna happen!! Cards will be around or at 1st place til the bitter end.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
why weren't they
last year? Or the year before? He’s not a god. They’re a whopping five games over .500, and they can be beat.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 13, 2009 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions
He's got a better team this season
That’s a big difference.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
well
I’ll agree with that. But then it’s not “a Tony Larussa team”, it’s a better Tony Larussa team then he’s had in the past two years.
We’ll see.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 13, 2009 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Cardinals have won 10 World Series Championships
Won in 2006. Played in another in 2004. But hey, if you want to rip Tony LaRussa and that organization then go for it.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
I'm not ripping
Tony LaRussa. I’m just saying that they’re ball-players like everyone else. They can lose and they do lose.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
but they win
when it matters—we don’t
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
They make near all easy plays
we don’t
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
they have
more team errors than we do. Want to re think your statement about making the easy plays?
by CalCalender on Jul 14, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
from Baseball-Reference.com
2009 St. Louis Cardinals at the break: 61 errors (ranked 3rd in NL), FLD% of .983 (ranked 11 in NL)
2009 Chicago Cubs at the break: 56 errors (ranked 6th in NL) FLD% of… .983 (ranked 11 in NL)
I presume the seeming inconsistency in the error ranking is that the Cubs have played 86 games, the Cards in 91.
There go those annoying facts again…
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
And again
half the payroll with a better record!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
stop trying to move the goal-posts. We’re running out of concrete, and it makes the gardeners unhappy when we walk over their petunias.
The payroll is irrelevant. They’re playing 5 games over .500 ball. They are not the 1927 Yankees.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
and they are
in 1st place, we are not!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
and
there’s half the season left to play.
Remember 2007?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Hopefuly
We are at the top. I certainly believe we can be.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
like last year
when… we won the division?
or the year before… when we… won the division? 2003?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
or the year before that
when you know they actually won a world series —again!! They still do this with way less payroll!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions
actually
the payrolls in 06 were not that different. It was after 06 that the Cubs really started to spend.
by CalCalender on Jul 14, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
yes, and?
according to cubsluver22, they ALWAYS WIN, and we don’t. Except for, you know. When we do and they don’t.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Need I remind you
We haven’t won in any of our lifetimes?
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
and we've contended
three of the past six years. That’s pretty good.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually...
… going back to 2001 and including this year, nine seasons — the Cubs have contended in six of those nine, being out of races in 2002, 2005 and 2006.
Of course we want better, but that’s better than any decade since the late 1960’s.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
but Al
the Cubs haven’t won a world series so that doesn’t count!
Only random WS wins like the 06 Cards who fell ass backwards into the playoffs have the true heart of a champion!
Oh, so you'd rather have
Cubs 2008 than Cards 2006 as a fan experience?
I don’t care if the Cubs are the first sub .500 team to make the playoffs if they win 11 of 17 when they get there.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
I'm relatively certain
that everyone here would agree with you. No one is saying that 97 wins and no playoffs is better then 83 wins and WS-Champs.
Just that the team is starting to contend consistently. And you know. Facts.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll agree with you
When they win a playoff game again.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
well ok
but that misses the point.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
exaclty
its like some fans are so horribly scarred by 08 that they can’t be rational about things.
Worf, if you need a hug go get one but there isn’t a magic formula for winning a WS other than sending talented teams to the postseason. For the last decade the Cubs have been doing a good job of this. Sooner or later it will pay off.
2004 is what I meant
sry typed that wrong.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Tells you a lot about the front offices . . . .
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jul 14, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
or the players
that aren’t living up to their end of the deal!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
I mean the way the front offices dole out the $
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jul 14, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
irrelevant.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Umm...
because records aren’t adjusted to be proportionate to payrolls. Yeah, it shows that their front office has invested in better players by using better scouting and handing out better contracts, but it has nothing to do with what happens on the field.
Not to speak for Drew, but I believe he’s saying that it doesn’t matter what the payrolls are as long as we have 1 more win at the end of the season. Nobody’s going to bypass us because we barely finished ahead of team with a smaller payroll. It ONLY comes down to performance on the field, thus making payrolls “irrelevant.”
This season IS over. -BLou 6/30/09
basically, yes
we have our 25 man roster, the other teams have their 25 man roster. How much their paid isn’t really relevant.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
so
we should apologize for spending on our team? Do you want to slash payroll to their level and see who wins? I don’t understand this
by CalCalender on Jul 14, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
No
but we shouldn’t wear blinders. Our team is playing piss poor and has been an utter failure thus far.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
they
have played poorly and are 1 game out of 1st in the loss column.
Utter failure is premature
by CalCalender on Jul 14, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
They have the payroll
of a team that should be 10 games up.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
jesus man
payroll doesn’t equal wins. It provides you with talent. Its up to the players to come through.
by CalCalender on Jul 14, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Players like Milton Bradley who have not come through!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
also
the very cost-controlled Mike Fontenot. Geo Soto. Pie didn’t come through for us, he was cost controlled. So was EPatt.
Here’s a hint for you — just because a player slumps doesn’t mean they’re not trying to improve.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Bradley
was paid to come in here and be one of top 3 offensive attractions, not let Ryan Theriot out power hit him.
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jul 14, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
"let"?
once again, the idea that these players are not trying to do their best is just not right.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
there's pretty good indications
that Miles is still suffering ill effects from a shoulder injury. While I’ve never liked Aaron Miles, and I think last year was a big aberration for him and he was never going to be that utility DeRosa guy Hendry wanted him to be, I don’t doubt for a second that when Miles does go out on the field, he is trying his hardest to perform.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
are there any players
you DO like? Wow.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
...
your comments above and below don’t agree with this comment.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions
the Yankees and Mets
would like a word.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
This argument confuses me.
Debating payroll in terms of what moves we can afford to make is fun.
Bitching that the team spends a lot in connection with the “failure” argument is silly. Explain, exactly, how the Cubs spending $136 million affects your world? And don’t claim they could cut payroll, half the price of hot dogs, and you’d be happier. Everything is priced at market value… irrelevant of payroll, a business like a pro sports team is going to strive to reach the balance of charging the most it can without losing customers.
The demand for the team and its offerings won’t go away if payroll decreases, so we should be happy we root for a team willing to dump so much back in to at least trying to put a good product on the field.
Is it disappointing that the big payroll isn’t resulting in a WS championship? Sure. Does money buy championships? No. Saying the cubs are a failure because they spend more than a team currently ahead of them in the standings is an ass backwards way to look at it. The cubs are succeeding in that they have found streams of revenue to allow them to spend so highly. Since that spending has increased, the teams success has as well. The last two years weren’t a fluke.
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end"
by AndrewJStone on Jul 15, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
It just tells me that they didn't spend it wisely
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jul 15, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions
With a rotation
of a healthy Carpenter, Wainwright and Piniero, they are going to be dangerous. Combine that with Sir Albert, a guy like Ludwick who is getting hot, a potential rookie of the year in Colby Rasmus, and an all star behind the plate in Yadier Molina, I am not so quick to dismiss the first place Cardinals. If we are to win the division, it is going to have to be on our solid play, not hoping others falter.
"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly
I think Pineiro is pitching over his head.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al Yellon on Jul 14, 2009 6:41 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
not really accurate based on his peripherals
his refusal to walk batters and GB Rate over 60% make his WHIP and ERA very much real
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 14, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions
The fact is, he *IS* pitching well
I’m sure the folks over at the Cardinals site are saying that Randy Wells is pitching over his head. Simply put, he’s having a great year, and I’d rather rely on the Cubs playing well than relying on the Cardinals and Brewers faltering.
"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly
by ambrosiadreams on Jul 14, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm more worrried about the Cards
Than the Brewers. I just have trouble taking them seriously because of their rotation.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 13, 2009 10:26 PM CDT reply actions
+1
However, I think really we’re all more worried about the Cubs, for all the reasons Worf so eliquently layed out near the top.
They need to look in the mirror, check themselves, think about what made them successful last year (WALKS, WALKS, WALKS!!!) and start to play like every game means the world.
THey can do this. Just not with their current approach.
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Jul 14, 2009 6:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Cardinals are rock solid
Carpenter and Wainwright are frontline starting pitchers. The bullpen is deep. Pujols is the best baseball player on the planet. Molina is an outstanding catcher. Rasmus has a great future. Ludwig is starting to hit. Glaus is inching closer to his return. Wallace is waiting in the wings in the minors. A healthy DeRosa and Greene is a very solid middle infield. LaRussa is the manager, Duncan is the pitching coach. Fundamentally strong across the board.
Suffice to say the clear cut team to beat in the NL Central at this point.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
It's "Ludwick".
Let’s see. From what I hear Glaus may be out for the year. Greene and DeRosa, too.
They are starting .220-hitting Joe Thurston at third base.
They are indeed fundamentally strong, but I wouldn’t call them “the team to beat”. They are playing under-.500 ball the last two months.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's been good enough to stay on top
I don’t mean to be a downer, but the Cubs did drive themselves into that hole with poor play.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
absolutely
and now, they need to turn it around, and play .600 ball.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
The Troy Glaus
that’s currently playing on a rehab assignment?
yes. and he's hitting the ball well.
now, the problem is that he’s not playing defense yet (i think). and that’s where they’re worried. but, they might be able to ship him off to the american league.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie
by buckmulligan on Jul 14, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
the one who can't throw from third to first?
Hard to DH in the NL. He would have to play first. I’m guessing they have first base locked down.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
DeRosa
I hadn’t heard that his injury was so severe- who is reporting a season ending injury? If true, that would be a devastating signing.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
by Slakkr on Jul 14, 2009 10:22 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
DeRosa's injury is to a wrist sheath.
That’s very hard to come back from.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
oh
that stinks for him. :(
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
It's the DeRo curse
Kind of like the curse of the Bambino, but in reverse. They signed a beloved player from their rival team and now will be dooooooooooooooooooooomed.
I can live
with that.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
same as Big Papi last year
He missed like 40 or 50 games i think
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
they are absolutely the team to beat.
come on al. their pitching staff, plus pujols, plus their management, and current record make them the favorite. they also have a better schedule than we do in the second half. the cubs might be able to catch them, but we’re going to have to get to 10-15 games over in order to do it. and i think that’s unlikely. i expect the cardinals to win the division, and with their coaching and pitching staff, i think they are the favorites to win the pennant.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie
by buckmulligan on Jul 14, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
they have
one, ONE less loss than we do. And we had a nightmare of a 1st half.
The cards are a good team but they are not anything to write home about
by CalCalender on Jul 14, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Easier schedule?
I haven’t compared the two teams game by game, but I dispute that the Cardinals have a better schedule. They’ve already played 44 games against sub-.500 teams compared to 30 for the Cubs, haven’t played the Dodgers at all, and have only played three against the Astros (if you believe that they’re making their own move). And let’s not forget the six games they get to play against the Royals every year, going 5-1 this year.
Also, they may be favorites right now to win the division, but the Dodgers would still be the favorites to win the pennant.
"You know, you should be a lot more careful crossing the street like that, otherwise you could die - if that bothers you."
Tony Larussa's teams generally play over their heads........
That’s why he’s one of the best, if not THE best, in the majors today.
"We got some pretty good chemistry here. We got some toughness, and it's starting to show." - Lou Pinella
There's a big difference between Lou and Tony
I honestly think Tony is a slam dunk Hall of Fame manager just like Joe Torre. Lou? People say he is, but I’m not convinced. Winning with the 2001 Mariners or the 2008 Cubs would have made Lou a lock for Cooperstown. I’d honestly rather have Tony managing my team than Lou. Lou will probably get in for what he did for the Mariners, which is fine.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
LaRussa will go down as one of the 10 greatest managers in the game
Like the guy or not, you have to respect his deep resume and accomplishments. What he has been able to do in 2009 is yet another testament to his managing prowess. The Cardinals operate with a payroll that is a fraction of the Cubs, yet they just find a way to win.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
i would think he'll rank a lot higher than that.
he’s got to be ranked as one of the best of all time; think about his success in both leagues, his longevity, and his innovations. he basically invented the modern bullpen.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie
by buckmulligan on Jul 14, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
top 3
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie
by buckmulligan on Jul 14, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
The Cards deserve credit
For their lead. One thing I wonder about is Carpenter’s sustained health- as he goes, so go the red birds. If Pujols can maintain his triple crown pace, credit to him.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
by Slakkr on Jul 14, 2009 10:12 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
carpenter's health is important, but they can manufacture pitching.
duncan can make anybody who is willing to listen to him a serviceable sinkerballer; he can’t make an average pitcher carpenter, but he can make him work. the only way i see the cardinals falling back/falling apart is if pujols goes down for an extended length of time. their offense can be bad—take pujols out of there and the could really struggle to score runs.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie
by buckmulligan on Jul 14, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Even if Carpenter stays healthy
I just looked at his stats and he has had quite the 1st half too. I assumed he was just Carpenter being Carpenter but his HR/F is 6.5% vs. somewhere around 12.5% between 2004-2006, his BAA is .200 versus a normal .235 for him, his whip is 0.87 versus a normal 1.07. He too will face some issues in the second half.
by IllinoisCubs on Jul 14, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions
From my perspective
I’ve been able to watch all but a few Cards games this year and I’ve been thinking the whole time how awesome it is to be 7 games over .500 while the offense has been so unerachieving since April. Pujols is Pujols sure, but for most of May and June, Rasmus was his only help. Ludwick, Duncan, Ankiel offered almost nothing for 2 months. I suspect it will continue with Chris and Rick but it appears Ludwick is coming back to normal.
And obviously third base has been a sink hole. Can only improve if DeRosa returns, if Glaus returns, if they call up Wallace… anything.
Starting pitching has held it together despite losing Carpenter and Lohse several weeks each. But they have the potential to improve on the first half if everyone stays healthy. I think Pineiro is giving what we can expect, just 2 seamers over and over. I think his results can be sustained. It’s Wellemeyer that needs serious help.
But I’ll definitely agree that Franklin’s success is unexpected. I remember reading in the spring he had been trying some new arm angles, maybe he figured it out. But I would expect him to regress.
At the end of the day, I don’t feel like they’ve played remotely over their heads. Maybe in April, but not since. Actually since May 2 the team is 3 games under .500. Hopefully there is another April or two coming this summer.
The Cardinals will be what they are right now
The Cubs have room for improvement, but will they improve?
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
88? - Number of Wins for NL Central Winner
The 2003 Cubs won the central with 88 wins.
Records needed for contenders in division in “second half” to reach 88 wins:
- Cardinals: 39-32
- Brewers: 43-31
- Cubs: 45-31
- Astros: 44-30
- Reds: 46-29
I think the Cubs have the ability to go 45-31 to close out the regular season, so I haven’t lost faith.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
It'd be nice to start out with 3 of 4 or all 4 in Washington.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
we had trouble there last season
Tho at least one of those games was Howry-related.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
And the Nats were a bit better team last year than they are now.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yeah, let's take it one series at a time.
To be honest, the notion of having to go 14 games over .500 to win the division seems a little daunting given how the first half (or so) of this season has gone. But there’s still a lot of talent on this team that we just haven’t seen come through consistently just yet.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
just takes a coupla sweeps here than there
while going .500 otherwise on the road, and winning series’ at home.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
There are roughly 11 weeks left in the season
the Cubs have to average 4 wins per week to theoretically win the division. They have been averaging ~3 per week thus far. 1 win more per week and we’re golden.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
I could live with that.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I will say this now
Cubsluver22 makes some of the stupidest comments I have ever seen. I mean the real head shaking soul crushing variety.
by CalCalender on Jul 14, 2009 1:38 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
awful lot of dedication
for a troll account.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
is it?
:D
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
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