The Second Half: A New Beginning And Hope - Cubs vs. Nationals Preview, Thursday 7/16, 6:05 CT
by Al Yellon on Jul 16, 2009 4:00 PM CDT
in Chicago Cubs Game Threads
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PrintWASHINGTON -- Finally arrived early this afternoon in the nation's capital, or more correctly, in suburban Virginia where I'm staying with friends. By the time you see this post, I should be on my way to Nationals Park; it's my first visit there. Email me if you are going to be at any of the four games and I'll try to meet up with you. I know there are a ton of expatriate Chicagoans in Washington and also there are quite a few people I know who have headed east for this series. With the Nats doing poorly and not drawing well (averaging 23,413, 24th in the majors), I expect the entire weekend to be filled with Cub-centric crowds.
At this writing the Cubs have made no roster moves, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they had made a deal, or more, or signed B.J. Ryan to a minor league contract, before they take the field tonight.
Paul Sullivan details five things the Cubs must do to improve in the second half and reports that Milton Bradley swears, yes, swears, he'll be better:
"When I tell you I'm back, I'm back," he said. "You can mark it down. I'm going to be hitting for the rest of the year."
All I can say is this: I sure hope he's right. If he can put together a second half even close to what we all expected when he was signed to the big-money deal last winter, the Cubs' offense will be markedly improved.
Bruce Miles has a similar take on the second half. So does Gordon Wittenmyer in the Sun-Times.
Update on the Cubs' sale: Tribune Co. is going to file for bankruptcy for the Cubs, as first predicted a couple of days ago. This procedural move will make it easier for the sale to be completed to the Ricketts group and will apparently help protect the new owners from Tribune Co. creditors after the sale is done:
In the Cubs' case, a Chapter 11 filing says nothing about the team's solvency or its ability to pay player contracts. But it could prevent Tribune creditors from chasing a new Cubs owner for partial satisfaction on Tribune debts.
The tactic for the Cubs "would deliver as clear a title as possible to the new owner of the team," said a source close to the talks. "It's a way in some respects of inoculating the team."
Soon. Very soon, maybe as soon as next month, we'll have new owners. In the meantime, there are games to be played. And won.
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Ross Detwiler was supposed to start this game, but he was sent to Triple-A Syracuse right as the break began. Instead, we get John Lannan, an actual good pitcher. I'd love to see the Cubs try to get him someday -- he's a lefty sinkerballer who would do very well at Wrigley. He is 2-0, 3.38 lifetime vs. the Cubs; the last start he made vs. the Cubs was August 22, 2008 at Wrigley. In that game, the Cubs actually hit him pretty well (5 ER in 6.1 IP), but the Nats teed off on three Cubs relievers, pounding Chad Gaudin for six runs including a grand slam by Willie Harris. Obviously, that won't happen tonight. Derrek Lee is 2-for-5 vs. Lannan with a HR.
If only the Rich Harden who threw seven two-hit, one-run, no-walk, eleven-strikeout innings vs. the Nationals on August 24, 2008 at Wrigley Field would show up tonight, we'd have no problems. The only Nat who has more than one hit off him is ex-Pirate Nyjer Morgan (3-for-4). This might be a real good game to get Harden back on track.
The Cubs are back on cable today -- CSN Chicago and MASN, the Washington/Baltimore area cable sports outlet. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.
Baseball-reference.com game preview
Overflow comment threads will post today at 7 pm, 8 pm and 8:45 pm CDT.
Discuss amongst yourselves.
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No kidding.
This has been one hec of a long week. Makes me wonder how I make it through the winter.
"Fasten your seatbelts"-Pat Hughes
Yucky
I may try college basketball though. My daughter will be starting at Marquette in the fall. My husband went to DePaul and is a big Blue Demon fan. It will be fun to start a rivalry with him.
"Fasten your seatbelts"-Pat Hughes
College basketball is fun.
But I love football most of all.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
You’re killin me here, Sue.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 6:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Way more
Swimming > football > baseball > basketball > other sports.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
I live for baseball.
Beyond absolute basics, I don’t even know the rules for most other sports. I just never was interested.
"Fasten your seatbelts"-Pat Hughes
I swam for 15 years
and my first living memory is of dancing around my grandad’s study wearing my older brother’s Payton jersey singing the “Super Bowl Shuffle”
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
I have it on video cassette
and theres a polaroid of me in mid dance somewhere.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
I was pretty good
I blew out my shoulder while training for the paralympic trials.
Now, I’m just a fan and might coach someday.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
"When I tell you I'm back, I'm back..."
To show you
I can really
SHAKE ’EM DOWN!!!
♪ ♫ Do ya love me?! (do ya love me) Do ya love me?! (do ya love me) Do ya love me?! Now that I can dance. ♪ ♫
WATCH ME NOW!
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
We had issues with this team last season
Hopefully that won’t continue.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
Lineup!
RJ
Theriot
Bradley
DLee
Aramis
Soriano
Baker
Hill
Harden.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
guess Lou
didn’t hear all the talk around here about hitting Milton in the two hole.
Well, I assume Milton will be batting right-handed vs. the LHP Hannan.
So I like him batting third. His numbers from the right side are pretty impressive – .918 OPS, though in only 67 PAs.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I also like putting him
in the 3 hole—it’s a nice show of confidence by Lou. Also, with Milton announcing he’s back—what better way than hitting 3 for us the remainder of the year?
Here comes BJ
Just got a tweet from ESPNChicago saying he signed a one-year deal.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
Summarize for me? MU rulz??
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 4:36 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
1 year
minor league deal.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 16, 2009 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Why is Harden starting?
Lilly, Z, and Wells could all be on normal rest periods.
This season IS over. -BLou 6/30/09
Because there isn't a better way to start the second half
than throwing your worst pitcher.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
get his start
out of the way?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 16, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
But doesn't it line him up to face the Phillies?
Rich Harden + power hitters + hitters park= disaster.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
Every time I see that W on the Washington hat
I think of the Walgreens logo.
"Fasten your seatbelts"-Pat Hughes
Let's hope the Nationals...
…are like medicine for what ails the Cubs.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
The Cubs have a sickness...
…and the prescription is more Washington Nationals.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
This is a big series
A perfect opprtunity to get things started out heading in the right direction by taking at least 3 of 4.
Need Harden to pitch well. Hopefully he is well rested.
I would tend
to believe that he would make an appearance or two down at Iowa, but I don’t know that for sure.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark
by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Jul 16, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Article said he was heading to Mesa to build arm strength
Boy oh boy oh boy
by BleedsbluinMI on Jul 16, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, that's good. Arm strength is good.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
You mean... to inject arm strength...
j/k
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Who is the backup Catcher?
Are the Cubs going to trade for a veteran, or call up someone from Iowa? Or go with Fox?
As of now,
still Fox.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark
by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Jul 16, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
This 2nd half especially...
…I think it is crucial for the Cubs to come out like it is opening day and run off a good record for the first 6-7 games. If they don’t, I fear the funk will continue and you could see some guys underachieve for the duration. If that happens, they have no chance.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
SWL get the Jays symbol off and the Cubs symbol on
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 16, 2009 4:22 PM CDT reply actions
You need to reverse the image so he's left-handed.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
This is a disgrace to The Chosen One.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 4:37 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
EXPELLIARMUS!
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 16, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions
The "Z" function is not working for me
I’ve e-mailed SBN about it and they told me it would be fixed by now, but it’s still happening: every time I press “z” to go to the next unread comment, the page jumps to the top, but it un-highlights comments.
Anybody else having this issue? I’m on Safari 4.0.2.
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
I have it occasionally
But I have google chrome.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 16, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
I had the same issue last night on my laptop
No problems today at work though.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
with all apologies to the White Sox
… my pick to click tonight: Milton Bradley
You can put it on the (message) booooooooooard...........aw hell yes!
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Hawk and Stone
always select a “pick to click” at the start of every game.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark
by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Jul 16, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks man
Guess I didn’t need to know that after all.
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
it's a very old Sox tradition
Going back, at least, to the days when some guy named Wimpy did games with Hawk.
Okay
Vote here
Who is more likely to come out and have a good 2nd half
Bradley or Soriano?
I think both are. We’re not talking about bad hitters here.
But if I had to pick one I have more confidence in Soriano.
I had to delete my twitter account. But you can still find me at fanfiction.net under puckish prosecutor.
I'll take Milton, but let's hope they both do.
Why did you have to delete your Twitter account?
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
It’s a long story but basically I was spammed. Long story I will be reestablishing a new one soon.
I had to delete my twitter account. But you can still find me at fanfiction.net under puckish prosecutor.
by puckishcubsfan on Jul 16, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, I get tons of spam followers, too.
I just choose not to follow them, so I never receive any of their tweets.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I block the spammers on mine.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jul 16, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions
i block 'em too
spammers… and anyone i don’t like.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
They usually get banned within a week anyway
I just let them go.
Im glad you didnt block me Allie.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
why would i not like you?
you haven’t blocked me for talking about the cubs too much. :-)
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
If I had to pick one it would be Milton.
Milton does not swing at balls and unhittable pitches like Soriano does.
by MandMexpress12 on Jul 16, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Pick one?
I’d say Milton-he gets on base much more frequently
"You can't win a dobleheader if you don't win the first game" Bob Brenly
by cubswgnrocks on Jul 16, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Gameboard
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark
by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Jul 16, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll take Milton
sure feels good to have baseball back again. Hopefully our second season goes better than our first.
"Respect" ~ Ryne Sandberg
Good to see you're in a democratic mood
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
Lobby to bring Joe Mauer to Chicago...
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
Can we give Soriano's money to Mauer?
Surely there’s a way you can lobby for that!
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
I don't think
Soriano’s money will be enough for Mauer if he ever leaves the Twins
"Respect" ~ Ryne Sandberg
There are many Chicago people in D.C. nowadays
I’m sure at least one or two have some sort of power to draft a bill that decrees Joe Mauer will sign for life with the Cubs.
Too bad most of them people are Sux fans…
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
Mauer would play third, first, or catcher. I don’t see a big need at those spots. But if I were starting a team my top 3 would be Mauer, Hanley, and Pujols.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 5:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Mine would be Mauer, Pujols, and Longoria
by MandMexpress12 on Jul 16, 2009 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t take a pitcher to start a team. And I’d pick Johan over Lincecum any and every dAy.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 6:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Apparently, Albert is, uh, stiff.
@JoeStrauss: Albert arrived at clubhouse around noon today. Exhausted from A-S frenzy. Did not come on field. Experiencing “mild stiffness.”
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I pray to god the home run derby f'd up his swing
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Well, I don't want to tempt the Baseball Gods by wishing for injuries...
…but let’s just say it’s worth keeping an eye on. In other Cards news, DeRo swung a bat with no wrist pain today and may be activated over the weekend. Should be interesting to see whether his power is all there still.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I prescribe a full body cast
At least until Oct. 10.
I'll buy that for a dollar.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Spending the rest of the day in the car, on my way to Wisconsin for my ninth straight year of 2 days of DMB @ Alpine Valley.
My Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Bradley is forthcoming.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 4:42 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Maybe we’ll meet up? That’s the 2nd to last show of the tour, which essentially started in February.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 5:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Al ...
is the trade you alluded to not happening?
Apparently not right now.
I’ll see if I can find out any more information.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Lannan
Light em up!
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Jul 16, 2009 5:01 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I'm gonna watch the game on delay
because I can’t miss people watching over at Wrigley and to catch the first song
I’m going to the concert Tuesday. Thanks to my fiancé, if she’s lurking, for the tickets
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Jul 16, 2009 5:03 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Lannan's numbers are interesting.
He has a decent ERA (3.70) – and he had a good one last season, too (3.91 in 31 starts). But he’s really hittable, and he doesn’t strike guys out much (4.09 K/9, 1.28 K:BB so far this season). In fact, he’s a good example of why it’s good to look at a starter’s FIP. Lannan’s is 4.77 thus far – compare that with his ERA.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Lannan's ERA has been significantly better than his FIP for his whole career.
About a run lower, in fact. His strand rate is fairly high and his BABIP quite low, which usually indicate luck, but if he keeps it up for the rest of this year it might be something like a trend. Hard to say after basically a season and a half. As Al’s summary suggests, he’s an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Maybe his pitch selection (the Internets say he has five pitches: FB, CB, SL, CH, and a cutter) makes his ground balls especially prone to becoming outs, for some reason. Or maybe he’s just lucky. There are a few pitchers whose ERA is routinely different from their FIP (IIRC Javier Vasquez is the typical example of a guy who underperforms his rate stats).
More Lannan stuff.
He outperformed his FIP considerably at every level he pitched at in 2007 also (he had 8 starts at A+, 5 at AA, 6 at AAA, 6 in the majors that year). Not so in 2006, where he struck out a lot more batters but had a high BABIP and low strand rate. He struck out fewer and fewer batters as he moved up the ranks (one can say that with some confidence, as K rate stabilizes very quickly). I don’t have a source for GB/FB stats in the minors, but he was ridiculously good at HR prevention there. In the bigs his HR/FB rate is pretty normal, but it’s hard to imagine a guy giving up few enough fly balls to have a HR/9 around .5 with a normal HR/FB. If it’s not just luck keeping his BABIP down it might be the same thing that kept his minor-league BABIP and (presumably) HR/FB down.
Thanks for the additional info.
Colin Wyers recommended FIP in one of his posts here a season or two ago and it makes for an interesting comparison to ERA. I find it gives a little more insight into a pitcher’s performance.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Whoa there.
FIP? Haven’t come across that one yet. Quick summary?
This season IS over. -BLou 6/30/09
According to google
it is Feline infectious peritonitis or the Federation of International Polo.
I don’t think thats right though.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
Well it wasn't just for you
I was really curious, myself.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
FIP stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching
The idea behind it is that pitchers have a fair amount of control over their K, BB, and HR rates but not over much else. FIP is a formula that predicts ERA based on K, BB, and HR rates. In practice it predicts a pitcher’s future ERA better than past ERA does, but there are some caveats. First, some pitchers’ ERAs routinely over- or underperform their FIP. Second, another study found that pure fly-ball rate is a better predictor of HR rate than is past HR rate, so an “expected HR rate” might be a better input to the formula than true HR rate (well… most ML pitchers have a very similar HR/FB rate but there are, again, exceptions to this).
I didn't think most fly ball pitchers gave up many home runs
Or have I been not doing enough math?
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas
I've only read the articles, not crunched the numbers personally.
They say that for most ML-quality pitchers the rate of home runs allowed per fly ball is sort of like BABIP (batting average on balls in play): all pitchers are about the same, but the value fluctuates wildly over time. The tradeoff of being a fly ball pitcher is that you usually give up more homers and extra-base hits and fewer singles — this isn’t a great tradeoff on the face, and so most fly-ball pitchers that make it in the majors strike out a lot of batters, too.
There are a handful of pitchers that seem to give up fewer homers per fly ball. I don’t remember who they are. I think a typical number is about 10-12% of fly balls. Carlos Zambrano, who’s given up about 32% fly balls in his career, is at 9.1% HR/FB; Ted Lilly, who gives up about 50% fly balls, is at 11%. So Lilly, as a fly-ball pitcher that gives up lots of home runs, has to limit baserunners to be effective. With the Blue Jays his walk rate was pretty bad, and he gave up lots of runs as a result. Since coming to the Cubs he’s cut down on the walks while continuing to strike out lots of hitters — this means fewer baserunners which minimizes the impact of those home runs.
Fielding Independent Pitching
idk what that means though
wells4roty
by jesus christos on Jul 16, 2009 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Harden on the road
04/10 @MIL 6.0 innings 2 runs
04/26 @STL 6.0 innings 2 runs
05/06 @HOU 7.0 innings 3 runs
06/24 @DET 5.1 innings 4 runs
06/29 @PIT 7.0 innings 1 run
Hopefully this is a trend that will continue tonight!! Let’s get this second half started on a good note!!
You said Harden…and long…(snickers).
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jul 16, 2009 5:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Some pitchers
Have these years where they pitch better at home than on the road and vice verca. Same as day games vs. night games.
Hopefully we’re seeing a trend where Harden is having one of those road warrior years which would be a bonus for the Cubs because we need to improve that road record
is randy wells injured?
i ask only because he’s not listed as being sunday’s starter
my guess is because kevin hart will probably start that game sunday.
that way hart won’t start vs phillies and wells can start game one of the phillies series.
by MandMexpress12 on Jul 16, 2009 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
unfortunately it does.
nothing SHOULD make sense when it involves Kevin Hart starting a major league game. Early line on Kevin Hart’s total walks. Ill set the line at 6.5 over or under?
by MandMexpress12 on Jul 16, 2009 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions
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