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Thoughts on the International Market?



Much of the focus on player acquisition and development focuses on the Rule 4 draft, and for justifiable reasons.  It's easier to follow some of those names, from showcases to college teams.  I am curious, though, what people think about the Cubs forays in the International market.  This isn't a post on who we've signed this year or haven't, or whether or not people are getting overpaid.  Furthermore, I'm actually really curious what people think.  A recent BaseballAmerica blurb got my attention, so I'll start with that.

 

Star-divide

Ben Badler had this to say on the international market

The track record of Latin American teenagers who received seven-figure bonuses isn't good. In theory, with more agents trying to find the best players and with teams gaining more experience and investing greater resources in scouting Latin America, the success rate of high-priced prospects should improve.

But there's still an enormous amount of uncertainty with these players: they're so far away from the majors; questions remain about their true ages even if they pass MLB's improving investigations; the ways in which they have to be scouted; the unfortunate reality that bonus skimming and shady dealings are still commonplace. So often the best players sign for little money, and not necessarily on or around July 2. Ask any international scouting director and he'll tell you about a player he signed for around $50,000 who he genuinely believes is just as good if not better than another prospect who signed for $1 million or more.

Dominican shortstop Sano (who's still unsigned), Cardinals outfielder Mateo and Yankees catcher Sanchez all have great potential. However, there are scouts with concerns about all three players, and none of them is a surefire bet to be a big league regular. A player with Mateo's skills could be the next Fernando Martinez, but we're willing to wait another year to gain more information on all of these prospects. The player with the best chance of those three at the Top 100 is Sano, who if he is 16—which MLB reportedly has yet to determine—has an advanced offensive skill set with a good fundamental swing, bat speed, power potential and athleticism. Assuming Sano signs, he'll get consideration for the Top 100, but he's not a lock to make the list.

Chapman is in a different category. While scouts are projecting Athletics righthander Michael Ynoa (the top prospect in the 2008 class) to one day throw in the mid-90s, we already know that Chapman can touch 100 mph, which is better than any other southpaw on the planet. There's risk with any pitcher and probably moreso with Chapman. His medical history is mostly unknown, and there will always be questions about the true age of any Cuban ballplayer. But based on his current ability and projected future talent, Chapman stacks up with the top handful of pitching prospects in baseball and would rank accordingly.

The other major factor with Chapman is whether he'll sign with a major league team by the time our 2010 Top 100 list comes out. Viciedo left Cuba in May 2008, but wasn't declared a free agent until November and didn't sign with the White Sox until December. If Chapman has the same seven-month lag between defecting and signing, he'll be cutting it close to be eligible for the Top 100 come next February.

The Cubs this year had a brief mention with both Sano and Mateo, amongst others.  That said, it's been a long time since we've really hit it big in the Latin American market.  I believe the last relatively big name was big Larry Suarez.  There's been some intriguing pieces here and there, such as hard throwing lefty Jeffry Antigua.  We've gotten some decent arms like Yohan Gonzalez and Dionis Nunez, amongst others.  Raw upside bats like Nelson Perez have been picked up.  Last year, the top two guys we nabbed were Joel Altagracia and Carlos Henry, both in DSL Cubs2 (someone once told me the difference between Cubs1 and Cubs2, but right now, I don't remember).

Instead of going heavy into the Latin American market, we've made a concerted effort to expand in Asia, led by Steve Wilson and Aaron Shinsano.  I guess we'd be one of the top teams in Australia right now.  We've done well in Korea, nabbing youngsters Dae-Eun Rhee, Hak-ju Lee, Su-ming Jung, and Ja-Hoon Ha (the latter three part of a fairly underrated Boise squad - I think the squad will struggle this year, but there's some good raw talent there, pitching and hitting, so despite not having the names of last year, I'm excited).  All four are considered relatively promising kids.  We've also made forays into Taiwan, but Taiwan is in a down cycle right now relatively, in terms of talent.  Like other teams, we've started to go after the HS kids in Taiwan, so that we can mold them.

I've been a bit concerned at our inability to hit on a big signing in Latin America.  Certainly, a lot of that has to do with the established relationships (it's not the big pocket teams winning everything - witness Ynoa and Sano).  Certainly, we've been in on some.  Rather than spending heavily on one or two guys, we seem to have spread the wealth around a bit, trying to nab raw guys with upside and hoping to mold them.  Certainly, considering recent Cubs track record with developing "raw, toolsy" talent, some would argue that spreading the wealth is a fair approach (I wouldn't - it suggests that the developmental system hasn't changed in the past decade, but Riggins is only in his 2nd year on the job, and guys have been shifted around.  Maybe you look for better coaches, but the idea has been suggested by some that the Cubs should limit their foray with toolsy guys due to their inability to develop them, which I sharply disagree with).

As Badler notes, the hit or miss rate on the top guys is still high, but there's a reason guys are first rounders and guys go later, and it's the same dynamic here.  I'm a bit concerned with our inability to hit the big signing due to the lack of top shelf talent in the system.  A system needs a blend of talent, and we're still building up.  Furthermore, a big signing also sends a signal that we will be in on things.  The attrition rate of prospects is high, but the potential to nab the next impact guy is a tantalizing doughnut that brings teams back.

Certainly, it can be said that these things happen in cycles, and that there's only a limited amount of top level talent each year.  Also, when combined with our Asian forays, along with our European forays, I'm not disappointed in our efforts on the interntaional market. We went to Japan and saw Esmailin Caridad, and picked up Marco Carrillo from Mexico.  They are reaching out, but it'd be nice to see us land a big time guy once in awhile.

I am curious if anyone has any thoughts.  There's a couple guys that are probably more knowledgeable in this regard, such as Raisin.  I'll see if I can put together other thoughts later, but I am curious what people think about our forays internationally, excluding the "veteran" signing of Fukudome.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Comment 18 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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Some thoughts...

The Cubs actually made a fairly notable international signing this year in C Wilson Contreras out of Venezuela, reportedly signing him for $850,000. They also picked up two teenagers out of Taiwan and one teenager out of South Korea. So, they’ve been a bit active thus far.

I am all in favor of expanding scouting to the Pacific Rim and Europe (the Cubs have signed two Europeans in recent memory in Dutch IF Dwayne Kemp and Italian RHP Alessandro Maestri). There are numerous advantages to scouting guys from those areas, such as more difficulties in forging birth certificates, higher standards of living (better for health and growth), stricter and better enforced laws for sports agents and scouts, etc. Granted, the pool of players is larger in Latin America, but I think you’ll start seeing more and more players coming out of the Pacific Rim and Europe as teams start investing more time and scouting into those areas.

However, there is one big, big, big reason why I’m in favor of the Cubs focusing more intensely on the Pacific Rim than Latin America. Simply put, their competition in the Pacific Rim is much lower than in Latin America. With fewer teams scouting the area and not investing much in players from there, the Cubs have a higher likelihood of obtaining players. Moreover, the Cubs can get those players for cheaper than if those guys were from Latin America. They paid good money for guys like Hak-Ju Lee and Sung-Ming Jung, but those guys would have been more expensive and harder to sign if they were in the DR or Venezuela. It’s a market inefficiency and the Cubs should do everything in their power to exploit it until other teams catch on.

Once that happens, then you can start moving your scouting and investing elsewhere. China, India, and Africa are all essentially untapped at this point. Considering athletic talent isn’t limited by geography, teams would be foolish to pass up those opportunities.

So, to me, it’s not at all a bad thing if the Cubs aren’t spending big in Latin America, if it means they’re diverting more resources to scouting in places like the Pacific Rim.

by Outshined_One on Jul 7, 2009 8:57 PM CDT reply actions  

I guess what I'm concerned about

is the idea that, the longer we go with not hitting on a big time signing (and Contreras is good, but he wasn’t from what I recalled, considered in that top 10 to 15 of Latin American prospects, but I could be wrong …) that we risk making it harder.

That said, this was largely to get a discussion going on the international adventures of Jim Hendry and Co. As noted, I don’t have a huge issue with it, just thought it was a good blurb from Badler and a topic worth discussing.

by toonsterwu on Jul 7, 2009 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

OO

As a businessman, I couldn’t agree more with your assessment of a “market inefficiency.” I think you are exactly correct on this. Exploit it and push a large percentage of your resources there and see if you can’t get a big head start. Now, a market inefficiency is no guarantee that the strategy of pushing hard on the Pac. Rim will work, but it does make it a good bet.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Jul 8, 2009 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

I would have liked to get Sano.

He’s a shortstop with a high impact bat, something that doesn’t come around very often.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on Jul 7, 2009 9:02 PM CDT reply actions  

granted

one has to be concerned about the age check they are doing about him.

Seems like the market is drying up on him a bit and he could go for much less than the 4 mil that was anticipated.

by toonsterwu on Jul 7, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

fortunately

we seem to be okee dokee in the system for shortstops. if we can get an outfielder or two like choo from cleveland, i’d be really happy. if we can sign quality athletes from korea cheaper than from latin america, ride the pipeline.

by tim815 on Jul 8, 2009 7:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

Reverse of the fanpost below you, toonsterwu

I feel smarter for having read this post.

Also a lot of good info in Outshined_One’s comment. I agree that the Pacific Rim is a great investment for the future. I feel they could still do more to capitalize on the high profile of Carlos Zambrano in Venezuela. It’s difficult with other organizations in place, like the Astros, and with the current Chavez government. But I’d rather see the Cubs develop a strong academy there, rather than just in the DR.

I take it, toonsterwu, you’re saying that the Cubs need to keep signing high upside, tools guys but change their philosophy of developing them. Is that just a reference to hitting philosophy, or do you think there are other problems that are preventing the organization’s prospects from becoming major leaguers?

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on Jul 7, 2009 9:05 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

no not really

thanks for the comments. there’s a lot i don’t know about the international aspect, particularly as it relates to the Cubs (I mean, teams that go after the splashy signings, you sort of end up hearing about their efforts out there), so I thought it’d be good to discuss. I don’t think it’s a topic that gets enough attention in terms of the player acquisition process. Heck, we don’t discuss DSL 1 and 2 enough and that is a part of the system (granted, there’s reasons, different strike zones, parks, umps and so forth).

I want to be clear, I don’t have a problem with what the Cubs are doing. I thought it was a good blurb, a topic that has tickled my mind for a bit the last couple of years. I also think my comment mid-way might’ve been poorly worded. I’ve read some comments from very knowledgeable folks loosely suggesting that the Cubs are better off going the safer route due to their past failures, and I’m not apt to believe that. Is there a general organizational philosophical shift that is needed? I’m not so sure about that, as I certainly don’t know enough to be qualified. There are some questions I have, but that’s just as a fan.

I think there’s so much focus on “raw toolsy” and “smart ‘baseball’ player” when it comes to player acquisition. Each draft, you see comments about that, and what organizations do. Two teams and their recent history grab my attention. The Indians have largely been lauded under Shapiro. Heck, I’ve admired how he runs his organization. That said, without a doubt, they haven’t succeeded. Let’s go Tribe had some interesting to discussion on this awhile back, and one of the points that stood out to me was the idea that the Indians were too monotonous (poor word choice). I look at the Red Sox system and compare that to, say, Oakland. Oakland went through a huge down period as they slightly adjusted their focus in regards to player acquisition (I’m certainly not qualified to get too in depth on that, I’m sure there are folks at AN and Sickels that could address that). During this period, we saw Epstein loosely take the model Beane developed and expand it to build one of the best systems in the game. They may not be ranked #1 (and rankings are really more for discussion) each year, but they are consistently good.

So what does Boston have to do with what I’m randomly musing about? I look at the diversity within that system and it just makes you go, wow. There’s power arms, “pitchability” guys, righties and lefties. There’s raw toolsy upside guys, the “polished” bunch. There’s big time signings from all over, there’s big overslots. There’s slap hitters, power hitters, speed guys. Certainly, they have the financial capability, which helps. What I’m getting at is that they have a diverse collection of not only talent, but skill.

The reason I harp on gambling some is twofold. Certainly, this is more in regards to fan discussion, as I have no knowledge on Hendry that Joe Blow picking up the paper or surfing the net couldn’t find. First, with our system right now, and with our win now squad, it’s the right time to try and find assets for the future. The focus should be more than finding talent to fill in. Finding value is as important. 2nd, the fan focus that you read about is often geared towards the “polished” guy with perhaps a bit less upside. Problem is, those guys can be found, and they don’t help build your nucleus for the future. I’m not saying we should make rash gambles. You need your mix of talent, but the online discussion is often focused a bit in one direction, IMO, and I can venture a guess why, but I’m getting way off point.

Sorry, a bit long winded, and I don’t think I really answered anything. I’ll try again at another time. Well, I guess I’ll try to find a way to cap it. My issue I guess is that I think the discussion too often focuses on readiness and ready talent for the Cubs, but with where we are, I wouldn’t mind a few gambles to balance out our system.

Damn, that was longwinded, my bad.

by toonsterwu on Jul 7, 2009 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cubs were obsessed with power

Power arms, power bats, when Hendry was in charge of the draft. It makes me wonder if the steroid-enhanced power “bubble” made it seem like getting a huge basher was a necessity. So the Cubs selected two guys from Hendry’s high school alma mater in Tampa, Brian Dopirak and Ryan Harvey, who supposedly had that power potential. (And, by the way, I’m not implying they were on steroids in high school.) But what we found out was that having a big swing was nothing without a good eye. Once they got to levels where pitchers had good breaking stuff, they were lost.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on Jul 8, 2009 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

Great Post

toonsterwu I enjoy reading your posts you bring a lot of insight in regards to our minor league system. I have only recently started to follow what goes on with the Cubs minor league system but it does seem at least to me that they have slightly shifted their focus from Latin America to the Pacific Rim. Do you think it is because they don’t want to hand out the big bucks on Latin American talent or do they not have a strong enough presence in the Dominican and Venezuela to be able to sign the high profile players.

by Ivy'sDad23 on Jul 8, 2009 2:26 AM CDT reply actions  

my guess would be

that the price for a specific 3 1/2 tool player in korea (where we have a solid base) is cheaper than the price for a similar 3 1/2 tool player in venezuela. we have two teams in the venezuealan league, so we are trying there. but you can only spend a dollar once. the cubs think they’re getting better value in the pacific rim. in the name of our shortstop in boise, i hope they’re right.

by tim815 on Jul 8, 2009 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

non-cubs Int'l thoughts....

This really is a down year for international prospects. Sano is clearly the top guy, but honestly seems a little unimpressive. Word is that there is little chance he will have the range to stick at short as he fills out and will likely move to 3b or RF. Assuming that is the case, his bat is going to need to be very good to justify the $3.5 mil+ bonus he will likely command. His agent (forgetting his name) is essentially the International version of Scott Boras. It is nice to see the Pirates (front-runners for Sano) willing to spend money to improve the farm, but I think going this hard after Sano might be a little mis-guided. Int’l guys have not done a great job living up to expectations (particularly Cuban defectors). If Sano was going to be a short-stop in pro ball, I would obviously be higher on him.

Poor Mateo…I really do not like the Fernando Martinez comp. Not necessarily because I think Mateo will be a better prospect, but mainly just because I don’t think highly of Martinez. While he has been in the minors, people have justified his performance because he was the youngest in the league, which is fine until you hit AA. Then, you really need to start hitting. Martinez is a pretty good athlete, but even if the Mets didn’t have Beltran, he would be a left-fielder, which hurts his value big time. At best, Martinez is a .300 hitter with not many walks and 20 hrs and sb’s. Pretty solid, but not a great ceiling for a guy who has been hyped this much. I am not confident he will hit that many HR’s, either. Anyways…..I hope Mateo is a better prospect than Martinez..

Sanchez is probably my favorite guy among this crop. He has shown some impressive pop times and seems to have really strong defensive skills across the board, to go along with his plus bat speed and nice raw power. Good move by the Yankees.

Badler said they usually do not get a ton of information on guys in the pacific rim before they sign, but afterwords get a decent amount.

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jul 8, 2009 6:27 PM CDT reply actions  

I think, like in basketball

all international players, no matter how many years of service in their home country, should have to enter the MLB draft. Players from Puerto Rico have to, so why not players from Cuba, Japan, Canada, etc.

Not having them enter the draft handcuffs the lesser teams just like not having a salary caps hurts them.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 8, 2009 8:08 PM CDT reply actions  

i'm not sure a salary cap would work in baseball.

though some cap may be necessary, i don’t think it would have the same benefit as in the NBA or NFL where there is, effectively, no minor leagues. if the Dallas Cowboys are limited to the same limited salary as the Titans or the Chiefs, they can spend more money on coaches and/or facilities. that’s about it.

If the big money Mets/BoSox/Dodgers/Angels/Yankees/Cubs are limited in their 25 man roster, if they’re smart, they’d burn the excess on signing amateurs. Then the Pirates would complain that they couldn’t get guys at ‘slot’ because players would publish lists of which teams they’re willing to sign with.

I guess if everyone goes at slot, that could be addressed, but the extra revenue by ‘big revenue’ teams will still get spent somewhere. Something should probably done, but New York ‘expects’ better than anyone else. In the opera world, many cities, you might get one or two a week. The New York Met has shows M-Saturday, and two on Saturday. A fanbase that will always attend will generally merit a better product than a fanbase that only sells half of its tickets or less.

Should the Cubs (or Yankees) be held down to the level of a city (Oakland/Tampa) that, for whatever reason, doesn’t show up….. even when they have a good team?

by tim815 on Jul 8, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

RE

It’s not the worst idea in the world, but the biggest problem is the fact that many (if not every) team in baseball has set up academies where they invest time and effort into developing players, educating them, etc. Teams would not want to do that if they were forced to put these guys into an international draft, especially considering how much time and effort that would take.

With the NBA, there are at least pretty good international leagues and training programs where guys can develop their skills effectively. However with MLB, when you’re talking about guys from countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela where money is limited, you probably won’t see those kinds of leagues develop to help young guys learn how to play the game effectively.

I don’t know how you’d effectively replace the academies if you did an international draft. If you can find a way over that hurdle, then it’d be feasible.

by Outshined_One on Jul 8, 2009 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

hadnt thought about the academies

but MLB as a whole could still have some type of training going on there, instead of a team basis, would be a league basis, allowing the development of the kids still.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Salary caps are BAD for baseball

Because of the revenue sharing already in place, the team that benefits the most from a salary cap would be the Red Sox who would be close to the number, but also well below the division rival Yankees, who would have to make serious changes. All the small market clubs would not get the luxury tax money they are currently getting and it would hurt them more.

I do believe all the int’l guys should be subject to the draft though. It would make things much easier and would likely straighten out age issues with a lot of guys

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jul 9, 2009 6:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

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