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The unseasonable weather is killing our offense. Literally.

As I am currently out of the Cubs viewing area I decided to look into something during today's dismal performance. We seem to have been having serious trouble scoring runs since about mid to late may. Coincidentally, Chicago has been experiencing unseasonably cold weather from that time frame, so I decided to do a little experiemnt.

Using a variety of sources (weather reports from weather.com, the national weather service, farmer's almanac as well as game summary data from the official Cubs site and game time information from here) I decided to graph our recent run scoring perforamnces (home games since mid-to-late May, as well as the 3 games at the Cell since they were also played in Chicago) vs. the difference (in degrees) of the game time temperature for that day and the normal (as defined by the national weather service) termperature for that day.

I did a little rounding to eliminate decimal points, but what I found was rather interesting. Simply, the Cubbies don't do so well when its unseasonably cold out. Almost all of our offenseive droughts have occured on days when the game time temperature is 5 degrees or more below the normal temperature for that date. With one exception, all of the games in which we've scored a plethora of runs (5 or more) have happened when the game time termperature outside has been at or above the "normal" temperature for the date.

So, I guess, from now on instead of shouting "Let's get some runs!" during the 7th inning stretch, we should instead be shouting "Let's get some sun!"

Here's a quick and dirty chart of the data:

3702758802_aef3850de4_o_medium

via farm4.static.flickr.com


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Thank you!

This was exactly what I was wondering about in the game recap today. Thanks for confirming my guess.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 8, 2009 6:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No problem Al,

Ironically, I was working on this during much of the end of the game before the recap was even posted. Guess great fans think alike? Hah.

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And as my wife reminds me everytime I use the great mind think alike...

and fools seldom differ. :)

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Jul 9, 2009 7:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is really interesting!!

thanks, hmlee!

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Jul 8, 2009 6:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

That’s interesting! Probably a bit of a small sample size, but still interesting to observe.

So Al Gore hates the Cubs, is essentially what we have to accept.

:)

by CubsWin!Oregon on Jul 8, 2009 6:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

LMAO

What we have to hope for is a heat wave.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 8, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you can have some of ours, we hit 100 daily

and are setting records in Austin for amount of days over 100 this early in Summer

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 8, 2009 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it is a small sample size

Mostly due to the fact that I couldn’t factor in any road games (half of the games played since mid-may). I thought about including data from the beginning of the season, but it occurred to me that in April and early May you expect it to be that cold out, so maybe it wouldn’t affect the offense as much.

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

IIRC

the games in atlanta were in colder weather too.

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 8, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

and

we did well in Houston, didn’t we? That place is a greenhouse.

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 8, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't Minute Maid

Partially indoors? Not sure how that would change things.

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Retractable roof, IIRC

always humid…. and full of pumpkins

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Jul 8, 2009 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

those are Oranges in the train sillyhead

and yes it is retractable. Houston is hot as hell and humid.

but to be honest, it is a nice ballpark, and there is not a bad view from any seat there.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yabbut...

…. if you really want to piss an Astros fan off, ask them about the pumpkins.

You like that park? I hated it. I got one seat that was in the Crawford Boxes, and it was right behind the foul pole — but not marked “obstructed view”. Took me 45 minutes to get the laid-back Texans to get me another seat.

They always seem to open the roof during games when it benefits the Astros most, and the quirks they put in seem as if the managment said, “Let’s think of every single ballpark quirk we can and put it here!”

The hill is stupid.

It’s probably my least favorite of all the new parks.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 9, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're complaining that they only open the roof when it helps the Astros?

Well, duh. It’s not like they’re going to open it when it helps their opponents

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett

by berselius on Jul 9, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

but it can be open or closed

they cannot go back and forth, MLB rules

I have stood by the Crawford Boxes, never sat there. I have sat many other areas, and no problems with the view.

The hill is dumb, but there is a historical rason for it, along with the pole in play.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

They cannot legally open it only to help themselves.

Nice try, though.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 9, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know they're oranges

but Ron just figured it out last year. He kept asking Pat why they had pumpkins on the train. Finally Cory took pity on him and told him they were oranges.

It was hilarious.

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Jul 9, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bodes well for

any potential October games…

"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark

by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Jul 8, 2009 6:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The other team has to play in the weather too

I hope this excuse dies the early death it deserves

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Jul 8, 2009 6:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't see this as excuse making

Just a “hey we really don’t score runs when its cold”

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Jul 8, 2009 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, yes, they do

But we’re only actually concerned with how the Cubs play in the various weather conditions. Didn’t really take this like it was an excuse, to begin with.

"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark

by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Jul 8, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like you ought to be concerned about the other team

Since the goal of baseball is to score more than the other team

Just sayin’

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Jul 8, 2009 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, sure,

But it’s a lot easier to outscore the other team if you’re scoring 5+ runs a game than if you’re scoring 1 or 2.

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oooohhhh, now

I finally get this sport.

"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark

by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Jul 8, 2009 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

plus if we blame the cold for losing

what is the weather like in October in Chicago again?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 8, 2009 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well it WAS

75 and sunny as late as November last year. :)

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is cuz the weather was on steroids

just ask Blou

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

thinking we should only hire players that hit good in colder weather and pass on others need a stat for that too

by ktowncubby on Jul 9, 2009 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to defend the hitters...

Because I do think that they need to score more in icky weather (exactly for the reason mentioned above, that October games are likely to be chilly) but, there’s a difference between home and road games. When you go on the road for a game and the weather is unseasonable, I think it’s different from having unseasonable weather in your home park… If it were the case that teams (the Cubs or other teams) couldn’t win outside of their home conditions, then teams that play in indoor parks like the Twins or the Rays would be at an absurd disadvantage when on the road. That doesn’t really seem to be the case, though.

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not excuse making.

Maybe this group of hitters doesn’t do well in cold weather, and maybe the other teams don’t have this problem.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 8, 2009 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great, just the people you want in Chicago!

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Jul 8, 2009 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, if that's true...

that certainly doesn’t bode well for any potential October baseball.

"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly

by ambrosiadreams on Jul 8, 2009 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yabbut...

… our pitchers will dominate!

(Or maybe we’ll have an unseasonably warm October.)

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 8, 2009 8:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sign more Canadians, Jim!

Now! Trade some hot-weather hitters for them.

I hear the Inuit can really hit in cold weather, too. Sign Inuit, Jim!!

by cubmudgeon on Jul 9, 2009 6:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow how about that russian the siberian nightmere

by ktowncubby on Jul 9, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's hope for a HOT July and August!

Thanks for the data, I love looking at charts like this. I’m such a geek. :)

"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly

by ambrosiadreams on Jul 8, 2009 6:52 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yet ANOTHER whiny, pissy excuse given for the ongoing dismal performance of the Cubs.

Unbelievable. And some Cub fans wonder why the rest of the baseball world too often snickers at us.

$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.

by BLou on Jul 8, 2009 7:14 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

did you even look at the graph above?

it’s pretty conclusive…

"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly

by ambrosiadreams on Jul 8, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pathetic excuse making

Suck it up and play the games. Have we seriously been reduced down to using the weather as an excuse for this $136 million team?!? Good friggin gravy. In case you may not have noted, the opposition has to play in the same damned conditions.

$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.

by BLou on Jul 8, 2009 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're mistaking excuse making

with presenting data. Furthermore, I don’t think the poster was whining or pissing or bitching, simply providing us with data that showed our runs scored in relation to temperature. What on earth is the problem with that? I enjoyed it, many of us did as we suspected and wondered about this specifically.

"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly

by ambrosiadreams on Jul 8, 2009 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Well, then its decided....

Tomorrow we move the Cubs to Puerto Rico. If that doesn’t work, say because it’s too sunny in Puerto Rico, then we move to the old Astrodome in Houston and set the thermostat to a constant 83 degrees.

Crikey.

$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.

by BLou on Jul 8, 2009 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody said that

The poster just provided interesting data. If you didn’t like seeing it, that’s fine, but I don’t understand why it makes you this mad.

"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly

by ambrosiadreams on Jul 8, 2009 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because whenever you present him with a reasonable argument...

… and back it up with facts, he can’t accept it.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 8, 2009 8:04 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

You read my mind B.

Why doesn’t the bad weather seem to affect the other teams?

I guess God must just hate the Cubs.

by bluekoolaide on Jul 8, 2009 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude it's a GD thoery on a topic.

No one said this is all telling and if the Cubs were only in a warmer climate they would have won the WS years ago! Why are you such a troll? After all this time Mike…why have you not adjusted your approach? you are as bad as Soriano!

Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?

by Kinky Reggae on Jul 9, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 9, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

136 million thats just sorianos contract

by ktowncubby on Jul 9, 2009 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty conclusive?

Oh, I forgot that correlation = causation. Thanks for reminding me

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett

by berselius on Jul 9, 2009 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hate to admit this but BLou is 100% right and I Rec'd him

Yes the numbers pencil out but last year the Cubs had a really crappy record when the WGN televised the games. Sometimes stats don’t mean crap. I believe this one of them.

Just because two things have a correlation does not mean they aren’t mutually exclusive.

If your are trying to make an excuse for this team and blame the weather gods for this team underachieving then you really should avoid anyone named Jim Jones, the City of Waco Texas, and black Nikes.

And fine lets play make believe and say this stat is right and the Cubs play crappy in cold weather. Ok, then lets expand this out. You know what happens in October? The Playoffs. You know what else happens in October? ITS COLD!

So for you Math geeks let me spell this out:

CUBS SUCKING = COLD WEATHER.
and
PLAYOFFS = OCTOBER
and
OCTOBER = COLD WEATHER

THEREFORE:

CUBS SUCKING = PLAYOFFS!

So to all you that think these stats are anything more than coincidence please realized that this belief means according to your logic the Cubs will suck again if they happen to make the playoffs.

How about we all act like adults and just hope this team has collective underachieved and had a crappy start of the season (you know April and May when it’s cold) and that they will start getting better as the season goes on (you know July and August when it gets hot) and stop trying to find lame silver bullet excuses for this team underachieving.

(This story was produced by BCPDnewservice. Our motto: If you don’t like this story then suck it!)

by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Jul 9, 2009 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sigh.

First of all, I never said that correlation = causation. This is merely something interesting. It doesn’t purport to solve the Cubs struggles, or even completely explain it. It is, perhaps, a factor.

Second, because you can’t seem to read, the data has nothing to do with cold weather period, but rather with UNSEASONABLY cold weather. Ie., temperatures below their norms. There is a big difference between the two.

Should the temperatures affect them? No, probably not. Perhaps it is just one big coincidence. I can’t explain WHY this is happening, just that it is.

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 1:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can...or you just did
“it is just one big coincidence”
— hmlee

And sorry for my rant. It wasn’t aimed at you. You did a good job putting together that graph.

(This story was produced by BCPDnewservice. Our motto: If you don’t like this story then suck it!)

by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Jul 9, 2009 1:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

SHAME ON YOU!

Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?

by Kinky Reggae on Jul 9, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's interesting

I have a hard time believing it, but based on the games this year it’s 100% true. Weird.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 8, 2009 7:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Television broadcasts show our record

with wind blowing in and wind blowing out all the time. What is the difference? Both teams play in those conditions too. It’s not “excuse making”, it’s just interesting to see.

"Yes, dear. You're right. I'm sorry." -Bob Brenly

by ambrosiadreams on Jul 8, 2009 7:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Literally?!

The unseasonable weather has a knife and is actually stabbing and killing the offense?!

Sorry, pet peeve, but really, why is “literally” needed in the title? It’s not literally shooting at the offense? I don’t get it.

by gizmo6d9 on Jul 8, 2009 8:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

you didn't get the memo?

literally now means figuratively. has to be one of the only words in the english language to mean the opposite of what it once meant.

btw, thanks for the info original poster. any statisticians want to do a regression/signficance analysis on the data provided in the chart?

I’ll put it very politely…you can trust me that I’ve played at levels much higher than you might otherwise believe. You may not like my criticism but you cannot question my resume. I suggest you leave it at that.

by krummy12 on Jun 24, 2009 1:03 PM EDT

by joeschmitt on Jul 8, 2009 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

i didn’t get that memo either (and I’m an English teacher)!

by bluekoolaide on Jul 8, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well then

I figuratively laughed out loud just now.

"You have to have short-term memory, no matter who you are in this game. There's always tomorrow." ~Derrek Lee

by Goodie1969 on Jul 9, 2009 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

FLOL?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oddly enough,

I didn’t realize my mistake in usage with that until recently. Probably should have used “seriously” or “really”.

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to start a grammar war or anything...

But I found this at the dictionary website. Funny. I am not alone! :)

Usage note:
Since the early 20th century, literally has been widely used as an intensifier meaning "in effect, virtually," a sense that contradicts the earlier meaning "actually, without exaggeration": The senator was literally buried alive in the Iowa primaries. The parties were literally trading horses in an effort to reach a compromise. The use is often criticized; nevertheless, it appears in all but the most carefully edited writing. Although this use of literally irritates some, it probably neither distorts nor enhances the intended meaning of the sentences in which it occurs. The same might often be said of the use of literally in its earlier sense "actually": The garrison was literally wiped out: no one survived.

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Diluted

I think it works best when used to indicate a common phrase or cliche is being used seriously. For instance, when talking about an expert: “This guy wrote the book on the subject. Literally. It’s the best-selling reference manual.” It indicates you aren’t just turning a phrase. Using it for the opposite meaning is just dumb, and using it when there’s no real non-literal interpretation doesn’t add anything.

Don’t get me started on “begs the question”.

by bungle on Jul 9, 2009 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This isn't surprising...

…it is just a lot harder to hit in colder weather – especially for power hitters (which is why I always hated Soriano as a leadoff guy in cold weather playoff games).

I would imagine this cold weather also has effected the teams the Cubs are playing that day as well, it has just hit the Cubs power hitters a little more.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jul 8, 2009 9:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This is fantastic work hmlee!!!

There are enough data points to create a statistically ligitimate sample size for the comparison (n=25 or so), though the graph itself has multiple interpretations. One clearly COULD be that this team does not play well in cooler weather, which would make sense for a lineup built around poeple who can hit it out of Wrigley field. However this graph is probably more relevant in telling us how we do in low scoring games in general – which is not well. Interestingly, your graph has a tighter correlation.

Of course, graphs can tell you all sorts of interesting things. Here’s my favorite:

by DisCUBbobulated on Jul 8, 2009 10:20 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

A further step,

That interests me would be to look at the humidity during the various games to see what humidity levels are conducive to balls leaving Wrigley and whether or not the Cubs performance in the cold weather could be linked to that. I think that would require more data than I have access to, though.

By the way, declines in pirates don’t cause global warming – it causes an increase in ninjas. :)

by hmlee on Jul 8, 2009 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can't Pirates and Ninjas just get along?

(This story was produced by BCPDnewservice. Our motto: If you don’t like this story then suck it!)

by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Jul 9, 2009 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

another Pastafarian?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

have you been touched

by his noodly appendage?

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 9, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

havent we all?

I cannot wait for my river of beer

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

can I get

a Hallelujah?

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 9, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

This is silly. Using the “normal” temperature as a measure for how the offense does? Sorry, I don’t mean to be rude, but this seems like an 8th grade science project, not a logical explanation for a major league baseball team.

by kanderber on Jul 8, 2009 11:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

nonsense?

he has a point … regardless, this team is so mercurial it doesn’t seem to matter what the temperature is.

Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

by junkhorse on Jul 9, 2009 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Cause you can have an above average day in April or May that would be equivalent to a below average day in June or July – so what exactly has the difference been between the first two months & the last two? None.

Unfortunately this team has been uniformly crappy the entire season, and in fact, more so in other ballparks: 25 losses on the road versus16 at Wrigley.

I believe you have a little more research ahead of you professor.

by JFCubFan on Jul 9, 2009 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't looked it over

But, from personal recall, April wasn’t unseasonably cold. It’s been May, June, and July that have been so, and far more often than just once or twice.

Geez, it’s not like I purported to solve cold fusion. I plugged some data into a spreadsheet and came up with a graph. There appears to be a correlation. Take it for what you will.

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are correlations...

…and there are quadrants. The appealing part of the graph is that it seems to segregate the data. A straight least-squares fit from these points (read off the graph, and assuming a nominal +/- 0.5 degree uncertainty on the temperatures) yields runs = (temp. deviation + 11.6)/2.1, but with a chi-squared of ~1400, meaning a goodness-of-fit Q of, basically, zero. It’s an engaging exercise in cutting up the data, but I wouldn’t take delta-T itself as having explanatory value.

Case studies quote patients reporting a sensation of "giving way," a "bursting noise" or "sudden explosion."

by Caledonia on Jul 9, 2009 2:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

nice.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Jul 9, 2009 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhh!

Too much math. I have no idea what you just said – I was a social science major! :)

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well from social science you should know the value of having a baseline

You aren’t providing one here, you’re just charting one thing and not giving any context. Without knowing how this compares to other teams, it’s pretty meaningless. Especially since the correlation between temp and offense is pretty well known.

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

what about baselines?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Jul 9, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wind

Maybe what is really influencing the data is that when it is colder in Wrigley means the winds are blowing in from the lake. Is it the temperatures or is it that we can’’t hit with the wind blowing in? Other teams will string several hits together for some runs but we seem to need the long ball. We have had a lot of hard hit balls so far this year that have died on the warning track because the wind holds them up. The other team seems to be satisfied to hit singles or hits to the the gaps. My experiience is that when it is unseasonably cold at Wrigley it is due to the wind from the lake.

by Walt on Jul 9, 2009 12:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Round and round we go

It is definitely an interesting revelation that the cubs have scored less in foul weather games, but the fact remains BOTH teams play in the same weather conditions.

If you are a better player, you should outperform the other regardless of the weather.

In fact, you could go as far as stating that the Cubs should have an advantage in bad weather games bc they know the field conditions better than the opponents do, having played and practiced out there far more often.

The cubs need to hit, period.

"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett

by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 9, 2009 7:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nothing surprising here.

Anyone who has played baseball in 40 degree rainy weather knows it will definitely limit offense.

As for this graph – someone above rightly pointed out – a beautiful sunny 65 in April becomes a supposedly inclement 15 degrees under normal in July. It would be interesting if you could show any team that actually did better in cold weather (actual temperature) I would imagine there is an offensive fall off for most baseball teams, if not all, when it is say, under 50 degrees.

by the nth on Jul 9, 2009 8:11 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It seems

like half the peopler reading this thread don’t understand the point.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Jul 9, 2009 8:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I get the point of the graph.

But using degrees under normal instead of actual temperature is flawed at best. Ten degrees below normal in July can be a damn nice day for baseball with zero reason for limited offense other than the Cubs’ pitiful limited offense.

by the nth on Jul 9, 2009 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks hmlee!

which reminds me… where is cwyers these days??

by Emelie on Jul 9, 2009 8:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This would be more interesting if you charted the opposing team's runs as well

I suspect they’d follow a similar distribution.

Low temperatures “literally” kill everyone’s offense – home runs, for example, are highly correlated to temperature:

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 10:13 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

You posted a chart with a temperature range from 51 to 56?

That’s a VERY small range. Try again and make the range 51 to 81.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Jul 9, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you want the range to be 51 to 81 just imagine a bunch of blank white space at the top of the chart.

This is a chart which, as the title indicates, charts HR/AB vs average national temperature IN APRIL. It’s from a JC Bradbury article on home runs in cold weather.

It’s meant to illustrate my point that offense is inexorably correlated to temperature. I’m not going to do the poster’s homework for him or her.

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

To back this up
Over 4% of batted balls leave the ballpark in 75 degree or warmer weather, but that rate drops to about 3.2% in the kind of cold weather conditions we are witnessing in the World Series.

Additionally, batted balls in play are less likely to lead to hits in cold weather when compared to more moderate or hot temperatures:

The most straightforward explanation for these findings is that the ball simply does not carry very well in cold weather. Batted baseballs are slowed down by air resistance in the heavy, dense air of cool April and October nights.


From here

Offense decreases with the temperature. This is in no way noteworthy.

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

I think you hit the nail squarely on the head with your comments & did a fine bit of research for the poster.

Low temperatures, bad; warm or hot temperatures, good. Simple as that.

A little OT, but I find it interesting that the opposite effect is thought to hold in football; that open air, cold weather teams (Bears, Packers, Bills, etc.) have an advantage over stadium or warm weather teams (Chargers, Cowboys, Dolphins, etc) when the game is played in cold weather conditions because they are more acclimated to the cold conditions. I am not sure that this is necessarily true, but it is always a favorite topic for the PBP, color guys to ramble on about during playoff time.

by JFCubFan on Jul 9, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As far as I'm aware

The thing with football has to do with the collisions between the players. Teams not used to playing in cold weather might have stiffer muscles in such weather and as such collisions would hurt more? I heard that somewhere, but I’m not sure if that’s the actual reason or not.

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll give you another reason...

…besides balls not carrying in cold weather:

If you have every swung at a 90+ mph fastball, and caught in on the end of the bat or the handle, it’s not a lot of fun and it hurts like hell. This is in the back of a hitters mind in cold weather and is no issue when it is warm.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jul 9, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The key words here are...

average temperature in April.

by shawndgoldman on Jul 9, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

hmm

" Because whenever you present him with a reasonable argument…

… and back it up with facts, he can’t accept it."

"Nice to hear some cheers for once," Bradley said. "I didn't come here to suck. I know I've sucked so far, but give me some love, you know what I'm saying? I am a Cub."

by Bildo1805 on Jul 9, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ask and ye shall receive...

I went back to my spreadsheet and plugged in the opposing runs scored alongside the same degrees from difference column I used for the original chart. Of course, this comprises six teams, so I have no idea if there’s any significance to it or not.

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, too much noise.

Probably because each team has a different average number of runs. Obviously the Pirates may be scoring more runs in the warm weather, but because they average fewer runs per game it would throw this chart off.

If there were more data points, or if you did this for each team at home, I would still be money you’d see a clean trend up and to the right. That trend is still present in this graph, but it’s not as pronounced as the chart above.

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you did want to normalize it

…you could subtract each teams average number of runs scored from each data point. Then do the same with the Cubs.

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But wouldn't that...

result in negative runs for some of the data points? That seems a bit odd.

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, because you're normalizing it

What you want to know is “How many runs above or below average does a team score due to the bad weather”. It doesn’t matter that half the values are negative and half of them positive. Your range would be -6 to 6 or something like that, with the 0 line being average.

That way you can compare the Pirates, who may average 3 runs per game, to the Brewers, who may average 4 runs per game (those are made up numbers – I have no idea what their averages are).

If you don’t normalize it, you add a lot of noise to the data. In my example, if the Brewers scored 3 on a cold day it would be a -1: they had an off day by their standards. But if the Pirates score 3 on a cold day it would be a 0 – that’s pretty normal for them.

You’d need to do the same to the Cubs chart, and then you could compare them. You’re looking for the trendline here, not the numbers themselves.

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a good question

I was thinking about that earlier. It would probably make sense to do the away average (and the home average for the Cubs).

It’s just one more thing you’re controlling for, so it makes sense to do it that way.

by Wreckard on Jul 10, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another question

Should the average number of runs over away/home games be calculated over the entire season to date, or just the time period in question?

by hmlee on Jul 10, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would do entire season to date

It doesn’t make sense to just average the values themselves, and subtract each value from the average.

But then again, I’m not really a statistician, just some dude who’s taken a couple of graduate level stats courses. It seems like the right thing to do there.

by Wreckard on Jul 10, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cause of global warming?

"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano

by JohnM on Jul 9, 2009 10:30 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

All I can say is...

even though the weather has been a bit cooler than normal here in DC, it’s still a lot warmer than it’s been in Chicago, so that should help the offense next weekend.

Visit bloggingthebracket.com, SBNation's bracketology/hoops rambling site!

by Chris Dobbertean on Jul 9, 2009 11:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Can't this have just been a graph to illustrate that this team sucks harder in cold weather?

Is that an excuse or simply a statement based on fact (small sample size or not).

Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?

by Kinky Reggae on Jul 9, 2009 3:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh for pete sake...

It’s an excuse alright. The players need to perform better, period. I don’t care what the temperature is, becauase both teams play on the same field under the same conditions. What’s next? The pitchers don’t pitch well in warm conditions?

In a magazine, Lindy’s baseball, I believe, there was an interview with Michael Young. He was asked if heat is a problem in Texas. He said “Absolutely not, it’s an excuse, nothing more.” That’s the kind of attitude I like.

In fact, it’s about as big of an excuse saying the reason the Cubs were swept by the Dodgers is because of a lack of left-handed hitting. No, that team led the league in runs. The reason they lost is becuase their game one pitcher sucked, damn near every player made an error in game two, and they were playing so darn tight, they could have made a diamond necklace out of a piece of coal.

It’s about time the organazation, and the fans for that matter, stop with this excuse crap and do what your paid very very well to do. WIN.

by cubfanwill on Jul 9, 2009 3:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It is NOT an excuse if you view it as a simple observation about this team.

Why is this so hard to take with a grain of salt?

Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?

by Kinky Reggae on Jul 9, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure if we were saying we were losing b/c of the cold

that would be an excuse.

Saying “Hey, its true… we ARE scoring fewer runs when its chilly” is an OBSERVATION.

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Jul 9, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly Allie

and it’s worth noting, that not all of the games on the left side of the graph were loses. Some of those we won 2-1 or 1-0. Some of the games on the right side of the graph we lost 10-9 or 7-6. It’s just that scoring more runs makes it easier to win games, and we seem to have trouble scoring large numbers of runs in the unseasonably cold weather.

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hasn't there been speculation

that harden pitches better in cooler weather? What was the temp in his last blowout?

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 9, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That has been speculated about him but...

His last pitched game (in which he allowed 9 runs) was on the 4th. It was quite icky on the 4th – around 70 degrees during game time., which is below the norm for that day.

by hmlee on Jul 9, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's right

the 4th was the coldest I remember for some time. Although last year, the 4th was WAY colder at night.

Oh, well. I go back to my theory that Harden just was never as good as we hoped he would be, and the NL has adjusted to him.

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 9, 2009 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Strikeouts increase in cold weather

So a strikeout pitcher would be expected to improve.

by Wreckard on Jul 9, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

bottomline so if it doesnt warm up the cubs are screwed, well were screwed anyways in october when it is colder yet so why even watch them this year; what a bunch of BS

by ktowncubby on Jul 9, 2009 11:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

lets face it hit the ball we win simple concept. pitching has been good this year we have lost at least 20 games this year because we couldnt hit a baseball’come on now. something else is going on here now. Only few people no this and were wasting our time talking about all these why nots and why dont they do this, few people know and will not tell why.

by ktowncubby on Jul 9, 2009 11:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

it's a simple concept

and possibly the most difficult thing to do in sports.

Your sentence structure is FASCINATING.

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. [ibid] This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 10, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any offense that can be hamstrung by the weather is simply a bad one.

Just like Rex Grossman: Inconsistency = Plain Bad…with a bit o’ luck sprinkled in.

by Jerry Mumphrey on Jul 10, 2009 9:51 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well I certainly wouldn't

Say that an offense that couldn’t score in below normal temperatures was a good offense, but it is important to note that the temperatures have been below normal for a long stretch of time this summer. It’s not exactly normal circumstances.

by hmlee on Jul 10, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would add...

…that it would be best to call it a “one dimensional” offense, and one that would also have a good chance of struggling in October.

All the more reason to make the 1 and 2 holes a top priority in your offense.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jul 10, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

just like a cub fan

to blame the weather for a team that is so overpaid and overrated excuses excuses

take it easy

by angryandy on Jul 12, 2009 5:20 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Just like someone with angry in his name

To spout off without reading the content.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Jul 12, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

just the cubs play in cool weather???

other bteams have to play in the same weather what a dumb post

take it easy

by angryandy on Jul 13, 2009 2:10 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Apparently

reading comprehension is not your strongest suit.

by hmlee on Jul 13, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

His user name is accurate, though.

Ya gotta give him that.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Jul 13, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

we wouldn't like him when he's angry.

We have evidence.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 13, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if there's an affableandy

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Jul 13, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

affableamos.

of course.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 13, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose so

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Jul 13, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kids these days . . . .

Linky

And I’m not even 40 . . .

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Jul 14, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

I blame those doggone video games.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Jul 14, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

no kidding

you’d think he’d at least take his own signature fwiw

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it. -George Halas

by Allie on Jul 13, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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