A polite round of applause for Milton Bradley's recent play
Its no secret that the often-criticized Milton Bradley has been playing better of late. How much better surprised me when I looked the numbers up. In the last 7 days his BA/OBP/SLG/OPS are a ridiculous .615/.688/.769/1.457. That was fairly surprising, but even more surprising was the numbers he's put up for the past month: .344/.474/.475/.950.
Yes, yes, I know the responses: small sample size and all that; for the whole year he's still mediocre at best; and is it really worth all the headaches, etc.? Even so, considering how much grief was showered on him for the early returns that were the polar opposite of this, I thought it worthwhile to acknowledge his recent turnaround.
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Orval Overall
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I'll second that.
If he keeps up his current level of play, he’ll be a very useful #2 hitter. He still isn’t worth the huge contract he got, but at least he’ll be producing.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
#2
I’m really liking Milt at #2. He deserves some credit for turning things around. If the rest of the team is not producing, you can’t blame Milton for that.
STAY THIRSTY, my friends!!
Although I'm sure someone will find a way to blame him
(cough) Steve Stone (cough)
by Jody Jody Davis on Aug 10, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's Stone's latest Bradley-related quip on Twitter (posted yesterday):
If the cubs wanted walks from their 30 million dollar man, now a 2 hitter, they could have signed mickey rooney for almost nothing.
Is that supposed to be funny?
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Yeah, what are the Cubs thinking?
Putting a guy with an OBP over .400 in the #2 spot in the order?
And for that matter, why did the White Sox send four players to San Diego for a pitcher who’s on the DL? Couldn’t they have just signed Chad Fox for almost nothing?
by Jody Jody Davis on Aug 10, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He must be stuck in the Dusty era of
having sub-.300 OBA in the top two spots
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
What an arse.
Why is he even twittering about the Cubs? Is this a common topic for him? Just can’t let it go?
What an arse.
yep
Why is he even twittering about the Cubs?hes bitter
Is this a common topic for him?yep
Just can’t let it go?nope
He can throw a fastball at 87MPH and make you look like a fool. He can spray lines drives to right field. He can put up with crappy offense and take the loss. He is Randy Wells. He is the most interesting pitcher in the world. Stay healthy, my friends.
by jesus christos on Aug 10, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Could you elaborate on this?
I’ve seen no reports that Stone’s Twitter page is phony. And I would have to think such reports would’ve come out after the Bradley-to-Detroit fiasco.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I wish Worf were here to spit on this tweet.
"I won't insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said." ~William F. Buckley, Jr.
Gotta be kidding
Hes an enormous liability in the field and on the basepaths. He anchors what is easily the most over paid under producing outfield in the history of MLB. The only nice thing I can say about him is at least he has a decent eye and some plate discipline, which is much more than can be said of the idiot in Left Field.
How did you come to the conclusion that he's a defensive and baserunning liability?
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
HHis defense and running certainly aren't stellar...
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
they're fine.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 11, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
They are fine
But they definitely aren’t great. It’s no an"enormous liability," lie Lou said.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Milton's defense has been pretty good overall this season.
And as has been mentioned many times, he’s rated quite highly by UZR over his career.
I’m not completely sure about his baserunning – I certainly wouldn’t describe it as a liability. If it were a liability, I think we would’ve seen him making a lot more mistakes considering how often he’s been on base.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
After his improved month- 28 RBI's for the whole season.
No surprise Lee and Soriano have more, but so do Rammy and Fox in less that half the games played. List of Cubs that have more RBis than Bradley includes Theriot, Fontenot, Fukudome, and Soto. Not exactly murderer’s row there. Even with his nt “improved” play factored in, his performance would be disppointing in a minor leaguer called up with options, in a 30 mil a year contract vet, its atrocious.
why does everyone keep bringing up
the money? you could pay Aaron Miles 30 million and he wouldn’t suddenly turn into a run producer…
by HardForharden on Aug 12, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
im guessing it had to do with the fact that he was paid 30mill to be a run producer
the cubs lineup needs moar LIND and HALLIDAY
by jesus christos on Aug 14, 2009 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Is it MB’s fault he is raking in $10 mil (a year – not 30) or someone else’s, if your boss wanted to give you a raise based on how you did last year would you turn it down? I know you wouldnt give the money back if you didnt perform as advertised.
Fact is he hasnt produced up until about a month ago (his fault) which is roughly when he made his pledge to be a better ball player in the second half. I think his recent success is a great testament to how good of a ball player he is…he said that he just wanted to come to the ballpark, play and go home – well he has adjusted well to the fact that you cant do that in Wrigley.
Makes me sick how people refuse to acknowledge that he is turning his season around and doing so at a good time.
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
I like that he's playing (much) better baseball,
but I’d rather see him hit for power than continue to see him hit only hit singles and draw walks. His current overall line makes him an asset, although not a very big one. I won’t be giving Milton a round of applause until he starts leaving the yard with some type of regularity.
He only has 20XBH. Theriot has 31. Our SS has more XBH than our RF. That’s rare, very rare.
His BaBIP is .323 right now.
I don’t expect him to (1) continue this production or (2) raise his batting average much higher. I know he’s not a lumberjack of a hitter, but I really thought we signed a middle of the order guy, not a glorified lead-off hitter. He needs to hit more 2B, 3B, and HR.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Huh?
What is so unsustainable about a .323 BABIP? His career BABIP is a slightly higher .326. BABIP has been proven to be highly inconsistent from hitter to hitter(pitchers are a diff story).
My beef with him is purely power based. His BB rate is at an all-time high 17.1%, but not too out of line with his recent totals. His problem(s) are 1)too many ground balls 2)too many fly balls not leaving the yard. Those figures should correct themselves in due time, being that he’s almost always posted better HR/FB numbers while at the same time playing in either the tougher league of tougher ball park, sometimes both(Oakland,Cleveland). If his power returns to, say, a .180 ISO, that would bump his line to around .270/.401/.450. That’s pretty excellent production, and in-line with what should be expected of Bradley from here on out.
Here’s to a great final two months from the thrity million dollar man!
I'm sorry, I was unclear. That's my fault.
I meant his production noted by the original poster of “615/.688/.769/1.457” is unsustainable; I was using his season BaBIP of .323 to suggest that he’s not exactly playing extremely lucky right now and probably not going to get (or stay) much higher than his season production at this point.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I meant his production noted by the original poster of "615/.688/.769/1.457" is unsustainable;
thats pretty obvious
He can throw a fastball at 87MPH and make you look like a fool. He can spray lines drives to right field. He can put up with crappy offense and take the loss. He is Randy Wells. He is the most interesting pitcher in the world. Stay healthy, my friends.
by jesus christos on Aug 10, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, and no.
Holliday hit ridiculously well for a month because his BaBIP sky-rocketed, IIRC. He was getting extremely lucky, and extremely hot, at the same time. I was simply trying to point out that GameBoard’s BaBIP was not all that high, so it just seems like he got hot. Holliday held his stats for a long period of time because he was lucky, too.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
matt holliday is the second coming of christ
He can throw a fastball at 87MPH and make you look like a fool. He can spray lines drives to right field. He can put up with crappy offense and take the loss. He is Randy Wells. He is the most interesting pitcher in the world. Stay healthy, my friends.
by jesus christos on Aug 10, 2009 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions
This is coming from Jesus Christos?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
no, its coming from the cardinals FO, fans, and announcers
He can throw a fastball at 87MPH and make you look like a fool. He can spray lines drives to right field. He can put up with crappy offense and take the loss. He is Randy Wells. He is the most interesting pitcher in the world. Stay healthy, my friends.
by jesus christos on Aug 10, 2009 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, of course
I obviously don’t think he’ll continue to hit in the .600s with a .1400 OPS. And I’d be very surprised if he maintains the “28 day” stats that are influenced by the last week’s numbers.
I just meant: he’s turning it around, and we should recognize that just as people, ahem, “recognized” — or went berserk over — his poor performance earlier in the year.
I don’t need him to keep those numbers up, but there’s no reason he can’t or shouldn’t continue to play well and be a useful contributor down the stretch.
By the way, what’s a BaBIP, and does it have anything to do with a LOOGY? (I’ll probably get a few loogies aimed my way just for suggesting that)
by Orval Overall on Aug 10, 2009 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions
batting average on balls in play
(Hits – HR)/(AB – HR) I believe
It's one of my favorite metrics, but of course!
For every ball that is hit into the field of play (NOT homers, strikeouts, etc.), what is the average of that batter or pitcher? Most BaBIPs should be around .285-.295-.300 for average players/pitchers. Since this is a measure of what the fielders do AFTER the ball is hit, it is a metric that tells us how well the defense plays, and also how lucky or unlucky a batter/pitcher is. I’ll give you an example I posted a few days ago, Derrek Lee versus Paul Konerko:
Lee seems to really benefit from his speed; his stolen bases total is much higher, his BaBIP is significantly higher (.040!), and he hits for more doubles and scores more runs. Lee’s speed also seems advantageous to his fielding, where he performs better defensively and covers more ground, while making fewer errors in more put outs.
Lee’s career BaBIP is .326; Konerko’s is .285, Lee has a .040 advantage in this metric. I think there’s a clear association between Lee’s higher average and his speed, and I argued that above. Konerko is about an average hitter when it comes to balls in play; that is, he is just about on-par for luck and defensive abilities.
But look at two more examples:
Milton Bradley in 2008, and Ichiro’s career. Milton is a career .326 BaBIP, which is good. He’s an above-average player and plays smart. Last year, however, his BaBIP was .396. HOLY SHIT! I think it’s safe to say that Milton (1) went on a tear all year long and (2) was very, very, very lucky.
Now, for Ichiro. Ichiro’s career average BaBIP is .359. WOW! What does that tell me? Ichiro is probably very fast, very smart, and a great contact hitter. I think it’s probably safe to assume that this is one of the highest career BaBIPs for current MLBers.
I compare these two players because one had a season that was clearly outside of his norm, and we can, with ease, show why. He was damn lucky, and damn hot. However, Ichiro has been a very successful player throughout his career because, amongst other things, when he makes contact, he hits for an average much higher than his peers.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Aug 10, 2009 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
Yeah, this is a nice look at BaBIP, which is a really interesting stat...
…that I’m still coming to grips with.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
to those who say "small sample"
I would say the first two months were also a small sample.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
For comparison's sake - 2009 stats
DeRosa – .258/.326/.467 OPS+ 104
Bradley – .266/.401/.402 OPS+ 109
by Jody Jody Davis on Aug 10, 2009 1:52 PM CDT reply actions
that doesnt
take into account DeRosa’s ability to handle a post game interview or make the lady cub fans smile
BRADLEY FAIL!
by CalCalender on Aug 10, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
As a cub fan who smiles at DeRosa
I take offense to being called a lady!
(i keed i keed!)
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
In all fairness, a t-shirt that reads:
“I want to get to right field with Milton Bradley” just sounds like nonsense.
by smash! on Aug 10, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
w00t!
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 10, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Great, but we needed the SLG more than the OBA.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
the guy
has never had a huge slugging %
im sure the cubs knew that when they signed him.
But he always hit for (far) more power than he has thus far.
He hasn’t had such a power outage since 2001.
I'm not so sure they did.
Lou was, after all, looking for a “left-handed run producer.”
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Nice comparison for the DeRo lovers
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
That doesn't take the homeruns into account
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 10, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions
True. So how about this?
DeRosa 2009 WARP (combined Cleveland plus St. Louis) = 1.5
Bradley 2009 WARP = 2.0
by Jody Jody Davis on Aug 10, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
That's good to see Milton climbing up there
DeRo is on pace for a career high in homers, but his average is down.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 10, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
A whole hearted applause for Bradley
He is coming around and will be a good signing.
Now reporting to duty, the rest of the Bradley fan club, you must rec this is to keep it posted for awhile.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Aug 10, 2009 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
::golf clap::
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 10, 2009 3:28 PM CDT reply actions
I agree
Watching Bradley play this weekend he has definitely stepped up his game. He’s been hustling on the field. I too love him at the 2 spot, & I like it that he gets on base more often than not. Might’ve made a few bonehead mistakes – not running out a double that he thought was a homerun, made a bad play on Friday night… but he bounces back & is playing with some passion. I sure wish Soto or Rami were playing like that…
I’ve been skeptical all season, but seeing him in person and watching how hard he plays (at least this weekend) he’s impressing me. We need more than just this though…
Bradley's first season is reminding me of another FA outfielder-
Moises Alou. He struggled mightily his first half season, and his signing was roundly criticized. I truly think that some players, particularly the more quiet types, take a while to get used to the circus-like atmosphere that surrounds this team.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
Why should having juggling midget middle infielders be so hard to get used to?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 10, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry, I'm confused. Are the Cubs juggling their midget middle infielders
or are the midget middle infielders actually juggling?
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
So you're saying Gameboard just needs to start, um, 'moisturizing' his hands the way Alou did?
/details omitted because this is a family blog. At least this thread is.
by Orval Overall on Aug 10, 2009 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I think there are a couple of posters here that would love to "moisturize" his hands.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Forget the last 7 days...
Check his numbers since the start of July. He still hasn’t driven in a ton of runs (even when he was in traditional run-producing lineup slots), but I’m not really worried about that. Here’s why:
0. We all know how team-dependent RBI are; as for the other team-dependent run-production stat, he’s scoring runs fairly often despite being often slotted low in the lineup.
1. He’s had fewer opportunities with RISP per PA than is typical (see b-r 2009 gamelogs page).
2. He’s actually hitting better with runners on than without (see b-r 2009 splits).
3. There are two possibilities when a hitter has good rate stats but poor RBI numbers (Bradley’s are below average, even for his low number of opportunities). First, that his rate stats overestimate his offensive production; second, that he’s contributing to rallies in ways that don’t result in RBI for him. Bradley’s wRAA and RE24 counts are pretty close, suggesting that the rate stats are getting it right and the RBI numbers are underestimating his production (see FG).
Well, anyway, after the first half of the season seemed to very loudly confirm every suspicion we had about Gameboard (injuries, temper, distraction, all while in a hitting slump), he’s quietly been playing great ball since the start of July. When he said he’d have a good second half some people immediately expected his season rate stats to jump to his career norms (an example being Brenly, who made a couple remarks about his average still being south of .250 just a couple days after the ASB), which obviously hasn’t happened because it’s mathematically impossible. Instead they’ve been climbing gradually as his second-half numbers have been very good.
At the time i posted this, on Monday, the second set of stats I listed were from roughly July 12 forward.
Or, roughly, since the ASG. And no, he doesn’t have a lot of RBI, but you tell me who’s fault that is when the guy was hitting .344 with a .475 SLG% over that span?
by Orval Overall on Aug 13, 2009 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Great post.
I’d suggest forwarding this on to Steve Stone, but there’s not a chance in hell he’d understand it.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
people want
home runs. Not that I’d mind if Bradley hit a few more. :D
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 13, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
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