At Their Current Play, Is It "Wait 'til Next Year"?

by The E-Man on Aug 11, 2009 9:39 AM CDT Comment 124 comments

I realize that there are still approximately 60 days left in the season. And, baseball really is a strange sport where anything can and does happen.

However, I am wondering how a series of negative indicators regarding the Cub's poor play and trends can be overcome, and allow them to reach the playoffs for the third straight year.

Disturbing is:

1. The team is last in the league with RISP, now with a .230 BA. And, 14th out of 16th in OPS. As we saw this weekend in Colorado, and Al so rightly points out - this is a pathetic - and certainly not Championship caliber - trend. Frankly making the Playoffs with this stat would be a miracle.

2. Jim Hendry's 2008-2009, off season. No matter how we slice it, Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker, Andres Blanco, Aaron Miles combined, will not give us Mark DeRosa. As we have seen, the team also does not have an equal sub for A-Ram. This was a very short-sighted, and stupid decision.

3. Our record against the "Good Teams": the likely teams vying for the Playoffs are the Cardinals, Rox, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies, Marlins. We have finished series with only the Marlins and Rockies so far. Can we say the Cubs have not "dominated"? Again, if the team were by some miracle able to make the playoffs, how would they fare against the aforementioned? The Cubs cannot say they are as good as these teams - save the Marlins, perhaps.

4. Winning on the road? The teams play, again, against the teams mentioned above so far, is below .500. The team still has almost half road games left in 2009. A downward trend.

5. The bullpen, Aaron Heilman. Again, why Jim Hendry was so driven to sign this pitcher is beyond me, and thousands of Cub fans. When the time comes that Season Ticket Holders have a chance to veto trades and players - this would have been one at the top of my list! A 4.74 ERA and a WHIP of nearly 1.90. This is BRUTAL for a set-up pitcher.

6. Injuries - Due to the fact that Hendry chose to delete, probably the best utility player in baseball from a 97-win team, knowing that in years past the team could not sustain a major injury loss - it becomes very hard to replace MLB real talent with AAA or AAAA players. Such is the case with this team. Jimbo rolled the dice on trading DeRosa - for this year he is losing so far...

It is not a pretty picture right now. Yes - the Cubs are only ____ games out of first - but overcoming the above six points in this 2009 season would truly shock me. I just don't see it - the win streak was nice - in fact all of July - but as Al mentions - they have regressed.

Let's hope they can pull it together somehow. If not - its "Wait 'til next year!" once more.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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To be fair...

You said that the team also does not have an equal sub for Ramirez, but most teams don’t have two Aramis Ramirez’s, either. Yes, it was short-sighted to put Fontenot there for so long, but it’s not like any reasonable team would have a Ramirez sitting around just waiting to play.

by KDoggers on Aug 11, 2009 9:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think he meant a sub equal to DeRosa

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We would have needed a sub for DeRosa too

Last year, if Aramis went down, that meant that Fontenot or Cedeno was playing second. When Fontenot was raking that didn’t seem so bad. This year that obviously didn’t happen though and we suffered immensely as a result.

by madcow256 on Aug 11, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're 21-25 against good teams

Like already said, it makes sense that only a few teams have winning records against good teams. That record is not bad.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 9:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's also fixable.

We still have enough games against +.500 teams to make that a positive record.

My concern is getting the starters back into a real rotation, and hitting with guys on base. I mean, we had 17 hits and got 5 runs on Sunday. That’s just completely ridiculous. It’s like batters get distracted by seeing their buddies on base and then miss the fact that the other guy threw a ball in their direction.

by KDoggers on Aug 11, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

W'ere about a week away

From having a completely healthy rotation. If they get back to form, it’s ok for this team to score 5 runs. That will win you 4 out of 5 games. Let’s face it, the Cards will not keep winning like this. They’re going to have to cool down eventually, and the wildcard teams all have tough schedules ahead of them.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the cards have an easy schedule.

they are not going to run the table, but they are going to win a lot of games. in order to catch them, the cubs need to play their best baseball to finish the season.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said the wild card teams

Not the Cardinals.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but you said the cards are not going to keep winning like this.

now, if by ‘this’ you meant sweeping the season, then i agree. but they are going to tear it up for the rest of the year.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

meaning i expect them to finish

20-25 games above.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We'll see about that

I have a problem with sweeping, final generalizations.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2009 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make that

21-26 after tonight’s first Phillies game.

by The E-Man on Aug 11, 2009 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the update, E

Lately, I know you’d make sure we were updated. Relax, man.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 12, 2009 12:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

At the current play (if nothing changes)? Yes. However,

Let’s give it two-three weeks and see if things do change. There is a mix of good and bad teams in there.

If the Cubs can do better than they have against the better teams, and beat up the bad ones, they’ll be right in the middle of things.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 11, 2009 10:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Anything can happen obviously...

but I wouldn’t be betting on this being our year. Inconsistent bullpen and an inconsistent offense make it just too unlikely for me to see the team managing a 3-4 week hot streak against good teams.

That said, you just never know.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 10:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

To clarify, I'm talking about our chances IF we make the postseason...

not our chances to make it to the posteason itself. I think we have a pretty decent chance of getting to the postseason. I just think that once we get there we’ll have trouble playing well enough to beat other playoff teams for three straight series.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

While still hopeful...

I have serious doubts as to whether we can even get to the post-season this year.

As you mention an inconsistent bullpen, and a wildy inconsistent offense coupled with the all too occasional lack of fundamentals, lack of timely hitting, questionable moves by Lou and the seemingly never ending run of injuries makes this seem like at best, an uphill battle this year.

I was in Colorado this weekend and we were pantsed by a better team. Yeah, I know, a few timely hits here or there and maybe we split or even take the series, but this is the team we have. I have come to not expect that.

I hope Jim paid attention. The Rockies are a fun, likable team that learned their lesson about throwing around huge long term contracts, devoted the time and money to developing their own players and are almost entirely homegrown now.

by Southside Steve on Aug 11, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

while that is obviously the ideal way to do it

would the masses at Wrigley be willing to deal with a serious attempt at a rebuilding project? I think not.

---AC 00 00 00 - Believe

by mjk83 on Aug 11, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

and in a market the size of Chicago, there never should be a need for a “rebuilding” project.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2009 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to the extent AA players make up the roster and the payroll is $30M, but

rebuilding to revamp the scouting department and stop signing 30 year old players to 5 year NTC deals after a single career year.

If rebuilding meant a 2008 offseason where management didn’t sign Bradley and decided a Hoffpauir/Fox combination could play RF, I’m okay with that.

if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand

by N Oakley on Aug 12, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If this team goes bust,

the fans are stuck with it for a while with all of the contracts for the “talent”.

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, let's say we're looking pessimistic

Let’s say they’re done, I hope they’re not, but for the sake of conversation let’s say. Has the ship sailed on this group of players? Can small changes around the edges make us a true contender for the WS or is something drastic to be done? Could something be done, who would we dump for prospects?

All this buttoning and unbuttoning

by Marttisdad on Aug 11, 2009 10:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

there aren't many players who can be traded

Thanks to NTCs and/or ridiculous contracts, I don’t see how the 2010 Cubs will be that different than the 2009 Cubs. Harden is the only big-money player not signed for 2010 (unless you count Kevin Gregg). Lee and Lilly are both in walk years in 2010 — which under other circumstances could make them possible trade bait. But Lee has a full NTC and I think Lilly has a partial one. And I wouldn’t be a fan of trading either guy (depending on the return).

Frankly, Bradley’s performance in the next couple months is huge — even if we don’t make the playoffs. I don’t think he has a no-trade, and he MIGHT be tradeable if he finishes strong. I’m not a Bradley hater. I’m just pointing out that he would be one spot where we could get some new blood.

But the rotation next year will almost certainly be Z, Dempster, Lilly, Wells and Gorzo, the lineup will include Soriano, Ramirez, Theriot, Geo, Lee and Fukudome. I guess there’s room to add in the bullpen.

by elgato on Aug 11, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the 10/5 rules and some bad contracts really make trades trade unlikely...

Dempster, Lee and Ramirez all have 10/5 rights (rendering the NTC irrelevant, but still making them much harder to trade). Lilly could be traded this offseason, but he’s been pretty good for the Cubs and would garner similar fan response as DeRosa. Fukudome has a relevant NTC, but his contract is likely untradable anyway. Same for Soriano, who will have 10/5 rights by the time he’d be tradable anyway. Bradley could be traded, but we’d be selling low (unless he has a huge 2nd half).

I think the current group will be together for 2010 (with the exception of Gregg and Harden), and then we’ll see some changes. That offseason, I think Lee and Lilly will be allowed to walk, and perhaps they’ll move Bradley.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

I hadn’t even thought of 10-5 rules. I really think re-signing Dempster was a huge mistake at this point.

by elgato on Aug 11, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was never sold on Dempster and am not surprised that it looks like a

…pretty bad signing at this point. At the same time, as critical as I’ve been about Hendry’s off season moves, I have to cut him a small amount of slack here; if they hadn’t resigned Dempster, they would’ve had to have found someone to fill his spot in the rotation. Maybe if they had been more aware that Randy Wells was ready it would’ve made the decision easier.

by bluekoolaide on Aug 11, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

The Cubs could have kept Marquis, and gone with a rotation of Z, Lilly, Harden, Marquis and Marshall — with Wells entering the picture later if necessary.

I wasn’t a Marquis fan — and I know that no one expected him to have the year he’s had — but Hendry shouldn’t have commited to another long-term deal when he already has SO many on the books. Hell, Dempster is making $9 million this year, which means he’s making an average of $14.3 million over the next three seasons.

The Rockies are paying only part of Marquis’ salary, which means Dempster/Marquis is costing us $14 million (or so) when Marquis would have only cost of around $10 million. That savings — paired with either NOT signing Gaudin OR Miles OR Gathright — could have been enough to keep DeRosa AND sign Bradley.

I like Hendry, but I’m not going to cut him slack on the Dempster move.

by elgato on Aug 11, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was a gamble that hasn't worked out terribly well this year...

Dempster hasn’t been his 2008 self. Ramirez sustained a serious injury and Bradley slumped early. Fontenot hasn’t proven to be an everyday player, and Miles was (as should have been expected) a terrible acquisition. Had Ramirez stayed healthy and Fontenot not regressed, then perhaps it wouldn’t have been a problem this year.

However, it is possible that we could see some long-term benefit, even though it may have hurt us this year. Trading DeRosa inadvertently allowed Fox to (finally) find a bit of a role at the MLB level, and it got us Stevens and two potential arms in the minors. If those three pan out into something, maybe there’ll be some long-term benefit to missing out on one year of having a really good utility player.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll grant you the point on Fox

He’s been one of the best things about this season.

by elgato on Aug 11, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One of the best and most surprising...

along with Wells’s emergence.

Not that I didn’t think Fox could hit, but I didn’t think Fox could find a spot on the field to play. And I definitely never thought he’d be adequate enough on defense.

In hindsight, it’s definitely a shame that the Cubs didn’t go to the experiment sooner. But oh well.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe they'll at least try him at 2B in Spring Training.

I mean hey we’ve got nothing to lose in Spring Training.

Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.

by Cub Style on Aug 11, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see it working out, but maybe they'll try...

he’s certainly proved people wrong before.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If they don't try I have a feeling fans will have a shit fit.

Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.

by Cub Style on Aug 11, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posted in another thread, but here's what people forget about Dempster

He signed before the free agent market collapsed, and a lot of people were shocked that he didn’t hold out for more money.

I’m not convinced that when we can look back over the length of his contract that the Cubs won’t have gotten market value.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 11, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's possible

… but did the Cubs NEED to give up market value, when they already had a lot of cheaper pitching options? See my post above.

by elgato on Aug 11, 2009 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Dempster signing was not a great idea either...

I felt that he’d be about as good as Marshall. I felt that his 2008 was way out of line with his career norms, and I felt he’d revert back to being not so great.

HOWEVER, the Cubs were not sold on Marshall and Samardzija being ready to be starters, and nobody knew that Wells would be good. And in the unlikely event that Dempster repeated his fantastic 2008, he’d have been a worthwhile signing.

In other words, it may or may not have been a good idea, but the Cubs felt that they needed him for starting pitching strength/depth.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a reasonable assesment

I think, given Dempster’s 2008 and the known quantities available, it was a reasonable risk to take.

Elgato may have disagreed at the time of the signing, but I’m guessing there would have been an outcry if the Cubs had let their most consistent starter from last year go.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 11, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're probably right

But making moves to prevent an outcry isn’t Hendry’s job. And, clearly, he doesn’t think it is — as shown by the DeRo trade.

by elgato on Aug 11, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True.

But I’m not convinced yet that it was a bad signing. We’ll see, I guess.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 11, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1Million

people are posting now about Marquis being a missed part of the team, imagine the response of Demp being let walk for nothing…..

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Aug 11, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

signing Dempster was not a mistake, it was the logical move. Despite the success of the rotation during the 2008 regular season, Hendry was correct to try to improve the rotation for 2009. I doubt he expected Dempster to repeat his 2008 performance, but he was expecting him to be a solid 2 or 3. Hendry knew he had two solid starters in Zambrano and Lilly. He knew he could not rely on Harden, who has been pretty much as expected, maddeningly inconsistent. Since he knew he could not count on Harden, he knew he had to keep Dempster to create what he hoped would be the three core pieces in the rotation. Hendry was right to assume that neither Marshall nor Samrdzjia are big league starters, once again showing the wisdom in keeping Dempster. And there was no way he could assume that Wells would emerge as he has, so when you look at it through Hendry’s eyes back in February, the re-signing of Hendry was almost a no-brainer.

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

Those calling the Dempster signing a mistake are premature. Even more premature are those saying we should have let Dempster go and kept Marquis! It will be interesting to see if bad Jason reappears in the 2nd half, his usual MO. As for Dempster, he took less money to stay a Cub, so clearly he is highly motivated. Last year was most likely a career year for him, but that does not mean he will be unable to bounce back and be a solid 3 or 4 in the rotation next season. What this rotation needs is a real top of the rotation guy, they have good candidates for the other 4 spots.

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way do you throw in the towel after a bad series

it’s 162 games for a reason. I’m tired of every time we lose a couple the “seasons over” mentality. We might win 5 of 6 and everybody will swing toward world series talk.

Just enjoy the ride. As I’ve said many times, it’s never going to be easy, that’s why we’re cubs fans.

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Aug 11, 2009 10:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

This is about the fifth time people have said the seasons over.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's only over when you are 2 games behind with one to play.

So until that point, I ’ain’t givin’ up…

…but damn, the Cubs make it hard to keep hanging in there…

Quia tuum es fatum titulis discidiis, vexillinis limbis nationalis,
gloriam seriis mundialisque, nunc et in saecula saeculorum...

Amen.

by Zeke on Aug 11, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And the crux of the argument is the DeRosa trade

Sure, he’s in a Cardinals uniform now, but we wouldn’t have him for much longer either.

And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.

by Ace Venom on Aug 11, 2009 11:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I've been proud of most of BCB

for not citing that ad nauseam the last two months or so. But I’m sure there will be people who cite that as the main reason for the Cubs’ struggles this season.

E-Man, you know I love you, but if four backups aren’t the equal of Mark DeRosa, something is seriously wrong in the state of Denmark.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neifi Perez, Enrique Wilson and Jose Macias were once all on the Cub roster at the same time

Some times, 4 is not greater than or equal to one.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 11, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem is,

Neifi and Macias were more starters than backups.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh. That's a bad reminder.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 11, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Neifi

He hit for the cycle when he was with the Rockies. I never knew that.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He also led the league in triples in 1999.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Aug 11, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And he hit the home run

on the last day of the 1998 regular season that pushed the Giants into the wild-card tiebreaker game vs. the Cubs. So there’s always that reason to like him.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And he really saved us in 2006 ;)

Or so Dusty said.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops, make that 2005

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do wish Hendry...

…had the same sense of urgency as many of the posters at BCB.

Someday we’ve got to shed the philosophy that the goal is to be the least worst team competing for the final playoff spot.

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."

by The Jade Scorpion on Aug 11, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Forget last year?

And where did that get them in the postseason?

by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 11, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only at BCB...

….do we continue to look at a 97-win team as a dominating team that disappointed.

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."

by The Jade Scorpion on Aug 11, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But that's exactly what they were.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Aug 11, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They could have at least won one post season game!

Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.

by Cub Style on Aug 11, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I feel like most fans would look at it that way...

Win 97 games and get swept in the postseason? That’s disappointing. In American sports, that’s the way people view the regular season relative to the playoffs.

by SouthernCub on Aug 11, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

God, how could anyone NOT be disappointed with last season?

Being swept in the first round and looking completely overmatched…the sting still hasn’t completely subsided.

by bluekoolaide on Aug 11, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never said...

…that I wasn’t DISAPPOINTED.

I was refuting the idea that somehow a 97-win season was evidence of a dominating team. It’s not. Should they have scored runs in the postseason? Sure – and it would have been nice. But even last year, there was a distinctively different level of offensive potentcy against cellar-dwellars than against playoff-caliber teams. And frankly, it wasn’t a surprise that the offense shut down again in the postseason after doing the same thing the previous season.

I simply cannot find common ground with the idea that 97 wins somehow equals a dominating team. It doesn’t – not even if it’s our Cubs. It’s a good year, but not a dominating one – and not one that comes with an outright expectation of a World Series title.

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."

by The Jade Scorpion on Aug 11, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does anybody have their record last year

against teams that were above .500? The word dominating is very strong, unless they performed more than a couple games above .500 against the toughest teams they can’t possibly be dominating, can they?

All this buttoning and unbuttoning

by Marttisdad on Aug 11, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since you asked....

… the 2008 Cubs record vs. teams that finished 2008 over .500 (they played 11 such teams) was 51-42.

Good, but they were 46-23 against bad teams.

This is something I’d bet you’d find if you examined ANY winning team.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Aug 11, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another case for being a dominant team

in the regular season at least.

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They won the most games in the league

they led by a wide margin in runs scored and were second in runs allowed. Sounds suspiciously like a dominant team.

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not me. i would take last year, every year for the rest of my life.

i can take the disappointment at the end when the season is so good. plus, the cardinals did not make the playoffs.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't much care about the cardinals last year

but I have been able to compartmentalize my reaction to the excellent 08 regular season from my reaction to the let-down of the 08 post-season. Last year was fun.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 11, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is what they were

so how would you characterize them, Jade?

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If that was the team's or Hendry's goal,

that would be a problem.

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's just too early

Unless the team drops 8 of their next 10 they will be in contention well into September.

The team also plays very well at home. There’s no reason to think they might not be tied for 1st or in the lead by the end of the homestand. It’s road games they need to play better.

by ak123 on Aug 11, 2009 11:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the real problem is the cardinals.

they are not going to slow down much. i think the wild card is a much more reasonable possibility.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about Cardinals

I mean they can slow down. Their pitching could blow up.

What if Pujols elbow really acts up out of no where?
DeRosa re-injures his wrist?
Carpenter gets shut down as a caution due to being shelved for 2 years.

Cubs aren’t the only team that can have this much bad luck. It just seems like it.

by ak123 on Aug 11, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're 100% correct

DeRo has had his wrist issues
Carpenter is an injury machine
Pujols has had his fair share if injuries
Piniero has never been this good
They certainly have their question marks.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That being said

They seem to be heading in the right direction…

by ak123 on Aug 11, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

at their current play?

which is their current play? Losing 3 of 4 in Colorado, or the month of July, where they scored the most runs, etc?

Obviously, if they play the way they did last night, we’re not going to the post season.

At least you didn’t blame it all on Bradley.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 11, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

um, it's august.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, it is now

but in July, they were the hottest team in baseball.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 11, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and currently,

they are not.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and currently

you’re missing the point. but, whatever.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 11, 2009 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No you are missing

the point. But “whatever”.

by The E-Man on Aug 11, 2009 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

3. Our record against the “Good Teams”: the likely teams vying for the Playoffs are the Cardinals, Rox, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies, Marlins. We have finished series with only the Marlins and Rockies so far. Can we say the Cubs have not “dominated”? Again, if the team were by some miracle able to make the playoffs, how would they fare against the aforementioned? The Cubs cannot say they are as good as these teams – save the Marlins, perhaps.

good teams would be good teams if they got dominated

the cubs lineup needs moar LIND

by jesus christos on Aug 11, 2009 12:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

wouldnt

the cubs lineup needs moar LIND

by jesus christos on Aug 11, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the point we try to make to BLou

The Cubs are 21-25 against good teams. That’s an average record against good teams, because they’re not good teams if you always beat them

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 11, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How is 21-26 (now)

an “average” record.

by The E-Man on Aug 11, 2009 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The answer to our woes...

ADAM LIND!!!!!!!!!

Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.

by Cub Style on Aug 11, 2009 1:01 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

my concern is not making the playoffs

we should, and can. we hold our own destiny right now with the upcoming schedule. My concern is what can they do in the post season? This team is still looking for its identity, and that is scary.

BLou, no need to comment, we know your reply will be one of the following:
1. Hendry is fat and lazy
2. they are all on roids
3. they suck, and are over paid
4. the guess hack pitcher is not hitting stolen bases like he could
5. the Cardinals are the best
6. Kenny Williams is my man crush

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Aug 11, 2009 1:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

if we simply get to the playoffs, i will be gloriously happy.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We are witnessing the work of one ridiculous albatross contract biting us in the ass.

Whay can’t we keep guys like Marquis and Derosa around? Because that money is reserved for, statistically speaking, the worst LF in the league. Why should a contending team like the Cubs have to give starts to the league’s worst LF? See point A…you get the idea. It will be a while before the Cubs can recover the roster. The weak NL central brings about the illusion of adequacy from time to time, but these Cubs are once again being exposed. It’s a 4th place team in any other division.

by Jerry Mumphrey on Aug 11, 2009 1:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The worst thing that ever happened to Hendry was getting the purse strings loosened

He’s always been a solid, creative GM when it comes to making trades. And he’s pretty much been a disaster when it comes to negotiating long term free agent contracts.

by bluekoolaide on Aug 11, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The worst thing happened

is when he put together that 96-loss albatross of a team in 2006. Because then he was desperate as all hell and overpaid for a guy coming off a career of a career of a career year.

Just win the next game...!

by blackhawk24 on Aug 11, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he made that move for Soriano

not as much because of how bad 2006 was, but because he lost out on Beltran, Furcal, etc and was not going to lose again

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Aug 11, 2009 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

keep guys like Marquis around?

last year people wanted BLOOD, I tell you, BLOOD from Marquis. They wanted him gone.

Wow.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 11, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wanted Marquis contract gone, but believed

if Hendry couldn’t get anything for him or merely lose the contract, the team was better off with him.

Hendry ate some of the deal, took Vizcaino back, and used the dollars left to sign Aaron Miles. At no point did I argue to take the last year of Marquis contract and use origami to make it something worse.

Marquis was way overpaid to be a 5th starter, but the man took the ball and would give you 200 innings, only in 6 inning increments, but 200 nonetheless.

if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand

by N Oakley on Aug 11, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Marquis bought Milton

DeRosa bought a little Milton and all of Miles for this year.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim

by Doggie Stalker on Aug 11, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hendry brought Miles

and the Cards ended up with DeRosa. I guess our castoffs are better than theirs.

If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.

by tharr on Aug 12, 2009 4:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, at their...

current play. But I can’t believe they’ll stay in this funk very long.

I’ll still hold out hope given the games they have left against these teams:

6 vs the Mets, 3 here
3 vs SD,
3 vs Cincy, all here
3 vs Hou, all here
7 vs Milw, 4 here
9 vs Pgh, 6 here
3 vs Wsh, all here
3 vs AZ, all here

Yeah they have 3 vs Phi, 4 in SF, 4 in LA & 3 in StL and 1 with the ChiSox, but I’ll take the 37 easier games and 15 tougher games than the other way around.

Just win the next game...!

by blackhawk24 on Aug 11, 2009 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

+1

Very good point.

That snapshot give me reason to hope…which I desperately need right now!

Thanks!

I have nothing funny or creative to write.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on Aug 11, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sadly, I wonder if playing these teams

only prolongs the inevitable. IMHO we would get spanked (for the third year in a row) in the Playoffs. Of couse I will watch every pitch and cheer my ass off

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Aug 11, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's impossible to tell right now.

When the postseason starts everyone’s record is 0-0. It’s a fresh start. Just look at last year to know why.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Aug 11, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen

I was just about to mention last year’s Phillies…going in, the would likely have been ranked 3rd or 4th in the NL seeding, and look how it turned out.

The keys are being healthy and having a hot September. Obviously the two go hand in hand, but IMO that’s what will be needed to get in…either as the Wild Card or Central Champ.

I have nothing funny or creative to write.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on Aug 11, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, get there and the season becomes a success.

after that, just hope to get lucky and catch fire.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just want them to get there

I know, I know… what you and others mentioned about the playoffs and it’s true. 2007 and 2008 are gone. I just want to see the Cubs play game #163; and that does not mean a tiebreaker.

Just win the next game...!

by blackhawk24 on Aug 11, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed. get to the playoffs and the rest is gravy in my opinion.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Aug 11, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess it all hinges on Aramis' trip to the doctor

If there is even a chance he needs to get surgery then I say do it now. Start the recovery and we can have him back next season ready to play. That might not please everybody here, but its the best option.

Playing at 50-60% the rest of the season and missing 2-3 games a week doesn’t help this team. Jake Fox can produce a notch below 50-60% of Aramis and this way we get a healthy everyday Aramis next season. We get to see what Jake Fox can do with extended playing time (something that might help us avoid another Fontenot-like mistake).

This doesn’t mean we give up on the season, because like I said if Aramis has to play in so much pain that he looks like he did the last week, he really isn’t helping the team.

Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.

by nji232 on Aug 11, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we knew he needed postseason surgery when the injury happened.

If the Cubs were out of the race, he’d probably be shut down now. But they’re not. Players play through various forms of pain all year. If Aramis can play healthy 2/3 of the time, he’s worth having on the active roster.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Aug 11, 2009 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

unfortunately he may not be able to wait until the post season

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill

by lookingdeadred on Aug 12, 2009 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The season is not over!

I’m 27 yrs old and have been a Cubs fan since I was knee high to the ground watching games on my 13in TV. We have have always been losers. I know I’m either really liked on this blog or really hated, as I have been overly critical at times. All that being said I have always said when we do actually win it, it will be epic. A made for television movie where the under rated team comes out of nowhere to finally do it. Kinda like the revenge of the nerds or something.

The smart side of me knows we don’t have it “again” this year but the diehard Cubs fan in me thinks this could be the year. I won’t give in until the last out decides were not in it.

I know eventually their will be a CUBtober and I will continue to hold out hopes!

Go Cubs Go!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Aug 11, 2009 3:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I did not state

“the season is over” anywhere in my post grasshopper.

Read it again. At their current level of play, it possibly will be. That is what I inferred.

by The E-Man on Aug 11, 2009 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with waiting til next year

is that this team is aging and has a number of large immovable contracts. Once the team gets sold and the new owner focuses on maximizing revenues in a way the Tribune never did, we can hope that payroll goes up a chunk, but until it plays out that way, it’s hard for me to be optimistic about this team’s prospects over the next couple of years.

by Holtzmaniac on Aug 11, 2009 3:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This team needs to grow a pair IMO...

and stop choking with men on base. That’s their problem- fear in the face of pressure.

For me, the straw that broke the camels back was 4 runs on 17 hits the other day. C’mon, that’s just ridiculous. You really think a team like that can beat a quality team in the postseason? please. And that’s not a one game anomaly- it’s a microcosm of the whole season, and statistics back that up.

So I say, yes, wait till next year. Maybe they’ll get some men on this team who can handle pressure for once. I’m so sick of the Cubs choking, be it in a 3 game playoff set, when 5 outs away from the World Series, or with the bases loaded in your run of the mill regular season game. I just can’t take it anymore.

by reedjohnson on Aug 11, 2009 4:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yes! THAT'S THE SOLUTION!

they need bigger testicles!

o.0

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 11, 2009 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe if they threw at more opposing players

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 12, 2009 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This season ended for the Cubs when they did not take advantage of over two months of stellar starting pitching

I don’t care what the standings say. The season has been over for the Cubs for several weeks. The biggest sin in baseball is not taking advantage of great starting pitching. And that is precisely what the Cubs had happen. Layer this on top of the major problems with the bullpen, a dysfunctional lineup and a rotten defense.

"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)

by BLou on Aug 11, 2009 7:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Rolling the dice

I wouldn’t necessarily say Hendry rolled the dice in trading DeRosa unless that is shorthand for saying the team ended up without an overall adequate 2nd baseman and without ready replacements for key infield positions.

Injuries, either symbolically or in reality, are going to end this team’s chances of getting into the playoffs. But there is no telling how last year’s team would have done with Ramirez out, Soto out, Dempster and Lilly out, etc.. DeRosa could have covered 3B, but who knows how that would have worked.

by AboutTheCubs on Aug 11, 2009 7:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well I completely disagree

" …I wouldn’t necessarily say Hendry rolled the dice in trading DeRosa…"

He was counting on what was in the fold OBVIOUSLY to make up for what was our #2 RBI producer. If you cannot see this, I do not know what to tell you.

He lost.

And M.B. has not produced to the level he was counted on to do so.

by The E-Man on Aug 11, 2009 9:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Context

You brought up DeRosa under injuries.

I agree that bringing in a player like Bradley was a mistake. Bradley is not the same type of hitter, even when he’s on, that Edmonds, DeRosa and Ward were when they had an impact at the plate.

by AboutTheCubs on Aug 12, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

christmas wish list!!

#1.find a way to get rid of A.Soriano……a freakin’ overrated not fielding liability#2.please,please,please….find a legit closer.yes K.Gregg must go!#3can anyone say second baseman?wow…..M.Fonte—NO must be replaced.B.Roberts would have looked good over there!lol the list could be longer but to me these are the most glaring deficiencies of 2009 besides the injuries and lack of hitting with RISP!JUST WAIT ’TIL NEXT YEAR!

by goatstew on Aug 11, 2009 10:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs