Perception is not reality

by tharr on Aug 12, 2009 3:57 PM CDT Comment 7 comments

Lou seems convinced that it's always better to use a LHP against LHB and a RHP ve RHB. The truth is that many Cubs players do not perform according to the book. Let's take a look at some of those guys and see what their numbers are.

Gregg vs RHB .858 OPS in 127 PA sOPS+ 133 vs LHB .578 OPS in 107 PA sOPS+ 48

Marmol vs RHB .701 OPS in 133 PA sOPS+ 100 vs LHB .545 OPS in 116 PA sOPS+ 46

Heilman vs RHB .817 OPS in 140 PA sOPS+ 125 vs LHB .760 OPS in 102 PA sOPS+ 98

Guzman vs RHB .565 OPS in 115 PA sOPS+ 56 vs LHB .676 OPS in 77 PA sOPS+ 73

We can all see that only Guzman fits the mold of using a righty-righty matchup. Clearly the other 3 are considerably better against LHB. When we dig down to the rest of the bullpen we also have some striking numbers.

Samardzija vs RHB .936 OPS sOPS+ 156 vs LHB .896 OPS sOPS+ 133

Marshall vs RHB .808 OPS sOPS+ 107 vs LHB .620 OPS sOPS+ 76

Grabow vs RHB .689 OPS sOPS+ 80 vs LHB .712 OPS sOPS+ 104

Of the remaining bullpen only Marshall follows the script. Samardzjia shows no evidence that he can get either RH or LH out. It begs the question to ask why he isn't at AA learning how to pitch. As for the disparity between perception versus reality in our pen, I would hope that Lou one day takes into accout what our guys are doing rather than what he wants them to do.

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Nice look

Way to take a look at some numbers. I’m still of the opinion that Marshall should pitch more. At least, longer. I mean really, if you’re willing to use a guy to spot start occasionally, throw him against multiple batters.

My favorite is by far:

Samardzjia shows no evidence that he can get either RH or LH out.

And he’s starting against some monster hitters……….fantastic.

by KDoggers on Aug 12, 2009 4:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not very optimistic about tonight's game

Of the whole series, I predicted this one as the one we’re gonna lose. Shark just doesn’t have the control to pitch in the bigs yet.

by aznsensation on Aug 12, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Samardzija vs RHB .936 OPS sOPS+ 156 vs LHB .896 OPS sOPS+ 133

Ugh….he’s going to give up at least two HRs, 5 runs, in 3 innings. Tonight’s game should be a high scoring affair.

"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject." -Sir Winston Churchill

by propheteer on Aug 12, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gregg is a closer and Marmol is an 8th inning guy

At least, that’s the script.

They aren’t supposed to be specialists. They’re supposed to be able to figure out both sides of the plate.

I’m not sure Grabow’s difference is significant enough to notice.

BUT, I do like you poking holes in the general book.

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Aug 12, 2009 4:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Stats ? Lou does not need no stinkin' Stats !

His decades in the game have proven to him that Marmol should ALWAYS pitch the 8th inning , Marshall should face one batter every 2 days and Gregg is fine for two innings etc.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim

by Doggie Stalker on Aug 12, 2009 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

interesting points

but I do have to say that the reason for these is that Lou uses most of these guys according to the matchups, but he would leave them in if they had to deal with someone who wasn’t as good. Like leaving in Marshall against Carlos Lee would be dumb, but leaving him in against Humberto Quintero would be ok.

by HardForharden on Aug 12, 2009 5:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs