The Tough Road to the Playoffs
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Aug 14, 2009 11:36 PM CDT
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I know it is very hard to predict anything in baseball. What makes the game great is anything can happen, anytime.
But as statheads point out while history never repeats itself it often rhymes.
So I did a little number crunching to see what the Cubs have to do make the playoffs.
I agree with conventional wisdom. 90 wins should get the Cubs the division.
So looking at the schedule I said what if the cubs win ever 3 game series the rest of the season and split all the 4 game series how many wins would they have:
Cubs Series
Pittsburgh 2 of 2
@ San Diego 2 of 3
@ LA Dodgers 2 of 4
Washington 2 of 3
NY Mets 2 of 3
Houston 2 of 3
White Sox 1 of 1
@ NY Mets 2 of 3
@ Pittsburgh 2 of 3
Cincinnati 2 of 3
Milwaukee 2 of 4
@ St. Louis 2 of 3
@ Milwaukee 2 of 3
@ San Francisco 2 of 4
Pittsburgh 2 of 3
Arizona 2 of 3
Rest of the season W 31
Rest of the season L 17
Total wins for the Season 90
So sure enough with that rosy outlook the Cubs get to 90 wins by doing that formula. No sweeps (except this series and the one game series against the White Sox), just win series wins and ties. It’s doable, but the Cubs have to play .650 ball the rest of the season.
Then I took a look at the cards schedule. I made a prediction that they win all series except against legitimate playoff contending teams (Dodgers, Atlanta, Miami, Cubs, Roxs). They lose those series two games to one and split all 4 game sets.
Cards Series
San Diego 2 of 3
@ LA Dodgers 1 of 3
@ San Diego 2 of 4
Houston 2 of 3
Washington 2 of 3
Milwaukee 2 of 3
@ Pittsburgh 2 of 3
@ Milwaukee 2 of 3
Atlanta 1 of 3
Florida 1 of 3
Cubs 1 of 3
@ Houston 2 of 3
@ Colorado 1 of 3
@ Cincinnati 2 of 3
Milwaukee 2 of 3
Rest of the season W 25
Rest of the season L 22
Total Wins for the season: 89 wins
That means they play .540 baseball (what they have been playing year long) and they get to 89 wins.
So you can see the Cubs can make the playoffs, but a great deal has to go right to make that happen.
I think the Cubs can play .650 baseball if they are healthy. I really do. But they really can’t have any more big losing steaks or they will have to have some huge winning streaks.
The one thing I took from my analysis is that unless the Cards just pull a NY Mets the rest of the season the Cubs can only really afford to lose (at most) 20 more games.
To me that’s the magic number (20 losses) and that is what I will be counting for the rest of the season. The other number to watch is 30 Cards wins (29 after tonight). If they get there then the Cards will win the division.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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My god, .650 baseball???
Football teams and basketball teams don’t even do that.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
It could happen...
But like it said it’s hard.
(This story was produced by BCPDnewservice. Our motto: If you don’t like this story then suck it!)
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Aug 15, 2009 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually, yes, NBA teams do that.
Of the 30 teams, seven of them played .650 or better during the regular season. The last NL team to play .650 for a full season was the 1998 Atlanta Braves, who went 106-56 (.654).
However, it is not impossible to play .650 for a month or six weeks. The 2008 Cubs did it in two different months (April and August).
And so have this year’s Cubs — last month, when they went 18-9 (.667).
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
We're not playing .650 ball for the last 50 games.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Certainly not
That would require wining 37.5 games.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 15, 2009 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Huh?
Are you being a smartass again, Badger?!
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
It's who I am
It’s what I do.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 15, 2009 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions
so far
we’re playing 1.000 ball.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 15, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
just sayin.
I know. It’s a small sample size.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 15, 2009 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Looking at your analysis, overall I'd say it's logical.
Real seasons of course have more streaks in them, but hopefully they would be balanced out. I sure think the Cards will sweep some series against lowly opponents but also could surely get swept by better ones. Of course the same goes for the Cubs as well.
The only problem I see in here is not with your analysis, but that while the Cubs do have a rosy schedule overall, so do the Cards…I hadn’t realized it was pretty much equally as weak for them. Guess I have to just accept that even with the Cubs winning as we hope it will still most likely be a dogfight at the end, and as you said earlier, we can’t afford a long losing streak without a longer winning streak.
I think the difference may lie in series with opponents that are struggling for the playoffs like us, with a few teams hankering for being a spoiler mixed in. The Brewers may hold the key to who wins the division with both the Cubs and the Cards having two series against them. That’s very nervewracking considering the Cards play them with their final series of the season, since the Brewers don’t seem to be as much a rival with the Cards as they are with the Cubs. About the only thing the Cards seem to be upset by is they untuck their shirts at the end of a game…which just makes me shake my head that’s something to focus on.
by Sandberg's evil twin on Aug 15, 2009 4:25 AM CDT reply actions
Actually, the Cardinals and Brewers have THREE series left
All after August 31.
Hard to believe, isn’t it?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 15, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Good.
Hopefully, the Brewers beat them up for us. They are 5-4 vs. St. Louis so far this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
And there is a little bad blood between
the Cards and the Crew. At least during Yost’s regime, what with the brushback pitches and all.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Aug 15, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions
postseason
someday our curt shilling will come along. the ONE guy that will inspire and fire up the cubs to win. i thought it was lou but i guess not.
Keep pace with the Birds
and beat them when we play them. The rest is out of their hands.
Considering what the Cubs have been through this season, even coming up short by only a game or two would be a huge surprise to most people.
"I won't insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said." ~William F. Buckley, Jr.
.650?
Yes we can, if we can get a couple of sweeps (Pirates-Reds-Nats)…. that would make this a lot easier…..if we can get everyone on the field for 5 weeks my feeling is we have not played our best baseball yet
No we can’t…Cardinals will probably exceed .540 baseball…..the road trip to west coast we could easily lose 5 games……I’m not too confident after the Rockies & Phillies tore us a new one.
So I have mixed feelings whether we’ll ever get healthy at the same time or this season of injuries continues. I would like to see what the wild card teams have in store for them for a schedule. I would like to think that the two west coast and east coast teams may beat each other up enough to allow us to get into that race. The problem is we only face the Giants among the contenders.
Let’s see how it plays out. I’m still hold hope we can make some noise but I think the key is going to be sweeping some series to inch our way back into both the wild card and division race.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
As always when you are the "chaser" in a playoff push, it breaks down to a LOT of "ifs" and "stays"...
IF the Cubs finally get everyone healthy and STAY that way through the end of the season.
IF those players who have been consistently productive this season STAY that way through the end of the season.
IF those Cubs players who have “underperformed” this season start producing along their normal seasonal numbers and STAY that way through the end of the season.
IF September call-ups from the farm system are productive when given playing time and STAY that way through the end of the season.
IF the Cards, Rockies, Giants, et al. start playing below their potential and STAY that way through the end of the season.
IF the Cubs can finally start playing consistently on the road, start winning series and STAY that way through the end of the season.
IF the Cubs can find a little LUCK in these last seven weeks and it STAYS that way through the end of the season.
They don’t need everything listed above to make it, but they need SEVERAL of them to break their way and STAY that way through the end of the season.
I’m hopeful, but at some point reality sets in and you have to play the hand you are dealt.
That being said, GO CUBS! Make it two in a row over the Bucs today…
Quia tuum es fatum titulis discidiis, vexillinis limbis nationalis,
gloriam seriis mundialisque, nunc et in saecula saeculorum...
Amen.
Really over the next month
It is a win a week. If you win a game more than the Cards per week, then you are looking at a huge three game show down in StL. The other thing to keep in mind is, although unlikely, if we are 3 back the Cards when we play them, that means a sweep ties and that will become the series of the year. You better hope that in the next two weeks if Lou sees this as a possibility, that he set the rotation to fall perfect for that 3 gamer.
Can't do it
You better hope that in the next two weeks if Lou sees this as a possibility, that he set the rotation to fall perfect for that 3 gamer.
Can’t risk screwing up 3 weeks to align a rotation for what “might” be a defining series.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 15, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Hopefully, after further thought
Any of our 5 can go since we should be full strength by then,
by niuhuskie224 on Aug 15, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
What I'd like to
see is the same analysis for Wild Card possibilities. The West teams must play each other. The Braves still play the Phillies and Marlins, etc.
As of this week, and this season, from what I have seen – the Cards and Phillies could very well meet in the NLCS.
.650 ball???
I consider myself an optimist, but I got nutnin on you
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 15, 2009 10:54 AM CDT reply actions
certainly
it would be a huge boost to clinch on the last day of the season.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
Clinching at home versus the D'bags on a Sunday afternoon?
Packed House + Third Straight Division Title + Beer = Record Monday “Sick Days.”
"I won't insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said." ~William F. Buckley, Jr.
I'd probably take
a half a week.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 15, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
As said 650 baseball is hard
So what’s more realistic, the division, or the wildcard?
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 15, 2009 3:29 PM CDT reply actions
I think it's the division.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 15, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Can't answer that w/o looking at other WC contenders' schedules
Cardinals’ schedule is about as “easy” as Cubs’
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 15, 2009 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, here's a sample.
Rockies have 10 games with Giants, 7 with Dodgers, 3 with Cardinals
Giants have 10 games with Rockies, 6 with Dodgers, 3 with Phillies
Braves have 10 games with Marlins, 6 with Phillies, 3 with Cardinals
Marlins have 10 games with Braves, 6 with Phillies, 3 with Cardinals
So — those are the schedules of the four teams ahead of the Cubs in the WC race, at least the games they have with other playoff contenders. Best scenario there is that they beat up on each other and the Cubs sneak ahead of all of them. Cubs trail by only 3.5 games.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Even if they don't beat up on each other
That schedule at worst case effectively eliminates 1 of them.
A lot of this will clear up in the next 3-4 weeks and we’ll have a better idea of which is more “realistic”.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 16, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Play for the wildcard
Cards are ripping the cover off the ball,pujols went 9 days batting .220 with no homers and the cards still went 7-2 , before holliday trade that would have been a catastrophe, now it didnt even phase them. unless wain/carp/piniero arms falls off they are going to be tough to catch.
by 1908 is a long time on Aug 16, 2009 2:19 AM CDT reply actions
You don't "play" for either
You play to win as many games as you can.
It’s not as if hoping to win the division would reduce the chances of the wild card.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 16, 2009 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Its Over
The Cubs have won 2 series all season against teams with a winning record. They have not won a series against a team with a winning record since the first series in May. This team has no chance.
Wrong.
They won series from the Brewers and Astros at a time when both had winning records.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yeah, great but now we know how good they really are
They are sub .500 teams. So right.
I did the math just to be sure
and it turns out you are incorrect.
The Cubs have an almost 19% chance of winning the division. If you think 19 = 0, then please send me zero-thousand dollars.
"I won't insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said." ~William F. Buckley, Jr.
I'll settle for $0,000/2
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 16, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
it's not over
till you’re mathematically eliminated.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 16, 2009 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Then by extending your logic
the Pirates and the Cubs have the same chance of making the playoffs.
OK. But that doesn’t make me feel better.
(This story was produced by BCPDnewservice. Our motto: If you don’t like this story then suck it!)
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Aug 16, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
not exactly.
The odds against the Pirates being able to the division are higher against then the odds against the Cubs, but it’s still mathematically possible. They’re “only” 19 games back. We, on the other hand, are only 4.5 back (3.5 back in the WC).
It’s not over till you’re mathematically eliminated.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 16, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
darnit
“being able to take the division”
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 16, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Not even close
but thanks for playing.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 16, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
so
it takes the cubs 90 wins to make the playoffs, but it takes the cards 96 wins to make the playoffs (67+29) ?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
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