I know it is very hard to predict anything in baseball.  What makes the game great is anything can happen, anytime.

But as statheads point out while history never repeats itself it often rhymes.

So I did a little number crunching to see what the Cubs have to do make the playoffs.

I agree with conventional wisdom.  90 wins should get the Cubs the division.

So looking at the schedule I said what if the cubs win ever 3 game series the rest of the season and split all the 4 game series how many wins would they have:

Cubs Series

Pittsburgh     2 of 2
@ San Diego     2 of 3
@ LA Dodgers  2 of 4
Washington     2 of 3
NY Mets     2 of 3
Houston     2 of 3
White Sox     1 of 1
@ NY Mets     2 of 3
@ Pittsburgh     2 of 3
Cincinnati     2 of 3
Milwaukee     2 of 4
@ St. Louis     2 of 3

@ Milwaukee     2 of 3

@ San Francisco  2 of 4
Pittsburgh     2 of 3
Arizona     2 of 3
Rest of the season W 31
Rest of the season L 17
Total wins for the Season 90

So sure enough with that rosy outlook the Cubs get to 90 wins by doing that formula.  No sweeps (except this series and the one game series against the White Sox), just win series wins and ties.  It’s doable, but the Cubs have to play .650 ball the rest of the season.


Then I took a look at the cards schedule.  I made a prediction that they win all series except against legitimate playoff contending teams (Dodgers, Atlanta, Miami, Cubs, Roxs).  They lose those series two games to one and split all 4 game sets.

Cards     Series
San Diego     2 of 3
@ LA Dodgers 1 of 3
@ San Diego     2 of 4
Houston     2 of 3

Washington     2 of 3
 Milwaukee     2 of 3   
@ Pittsburgh     2 of 3
@ Milwaukee     2 of 3
Atlanta     1 of 3
Florida     1 of 3
Cubs     1 of 3
@ Houston     2 of 3
@ Colorado     1 of 3
@ Cincinnati     2 of 3
Milwaukee     2 of 3
Rest of the season W 25
Rest of the season L 22
Total Wins for the season: 89 wins

That means they play .540 baseball (what they have been playing year long) and they get to 89 wins.

So you can see the Cubs can make the playoffs, but a great deal has to go right to make that happen. 

I think the Cubs can play .650 baseball if they are healthy.  I really do.  But they really can’t have any more big losing steaks or they will have to have some huge winning streaks.

The one thing I took from my analysis is that unless the Cards just pull a NY Mets the rest of the season the Cubs can only really afford to lose (at most) 20 more games.

To me that’s the magic number (20 losses) and that is what I will be counting for the rest of the season.  The other number to watch is 30 Cards wins (29 after tonight).  If they get there then the Cards will win the division.