Should the Cubs Keep Rich Harden?

Eli Greenspan says "no", because a deal would cost $50-60 mill over 4 years.

over 2 years ago drewishdrewid 29 comments 0 recs |

Comments

No.

Not for that kind of money for those years. I believe a rebuilding process is coming soon, and no more deals of this kind should be signed. If Wells can take another step forward next year, and Gorz could fill that fifth spot, then the rotation will be fine without Harden’s 8 wins and 4+ ERA.

Someday we'll go all the way...

by CubsBullsBears on Aug 26, 2009 10:22 PM CDT reply actions

You're seriously using his win-loss record against him?

Oh, and guess what: After last night, his ERA isn’t 4+ anymore. (3.99 to be exact.) Granted, his FIP is still a garish 4.38, but that’s probably because of his misfortunes with the home run ball earlier this season. And Rich’s strikeout numbers speak for themselves. The money issue aside, exchanging Rich Harden for Tom Gorzelanny is a sizeable downgrade – and I still have a certain amount of reserved hope for Da Gorz.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Aug 27, 2009 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions

well, think about this — Rich’s average number of starts is under 14 per year. Gorzo would be starting for him several times anyway.

"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 27, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, but he's made 22 starts this season.

Maybe I’m being too optimistic here, but it’s possible that he and the Cubs have found a routine that works for Rich. Maybe he’ll take that into consideration in the arbitration hearing.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Aug 27, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions

yep

like I said, I’d take him at 2 years for $20 mill.

"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 27, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm using his...

ERA, his probable contract demands, and his fragile history against him. No more ridiculous contracts for pitchers.

Someday we'll go all the way...

by CubsBullsBears on Aug 27, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions

His contract would be equal

to 2 solid relievers that the team could use. I love watching Harden pitch but the problem won’t be with starting pitching next year.

by ak123 on Aug 26, 2009 10:27 PM CDT reply actions

Unfortunately with Dempster's and Zambrano's deal

I don’t know if they can afford him.

by rlpete on Aug 26, 2009 10:35 PM CDT reply actions

This is a very good post.

I like the discussion topic.

On one hand, Rich, when healthy, is our true ace. His performance this year is even more impressive when you learn that his BaBIP is pretty high, which suggests a long streak of bad luck.

On the other hand, with a piss-poor farm system, and a rotation/bullpen that already includes 5, 6, or even 7 starters/possible-starters, we could do without him. The draft picks would be helpful.

I’m torn. You can never have enough good pitching, I believe, but we could use the monies in the off-season to get some middle infield help. If this team’s offense performed even half as well as our starters have this year, we would be atop this division.

Dan

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Aug 26, 2009 10:40 PM CDT reply actions

Offer him

arbitration…if he takes it great if not great. You either get the supplemental draft pick or you will get a quality pitcher with an injury history signed to a low risk/high reward one year deal. I think either scenario is probably a win for the Cubs…

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Aug 26, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess I'm not too sure how arbitration works.

Good idea then, if that’s the case.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Aug 27, 2009 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions

The link

is based off the speculation from Sullivan the other day. Olney seemed to suggest 20 mil was likely the max he could get (likely a 2 year deal, 10 AAV, 3/20 seems a tad low in the market).

For me, I’d make him an offer and offer him arbitration, then play a wait and see game. Everything depends on the market. 2 years/20 million wouldn’t be that bad and could probably be something the Cubs could fit in. At that price, I’d take the gamble. When on, Harden is one of the top 5 pitchers in the game, and you play the “hope he’s hot at the right time” game. If he finds a better offer, or if the market is much higher, then you collect the picks and move on.

Btw, read through that article. I hope that wasn’t a Cubs fan that wrote it. Tyler Colvin has an advanced approach huh? Just made me chuckle.

by toonsterwu on Aug 27, 2009 12:22 AM CDT reply actions

I don't think Eli

is particularly focussed on the Cubs, no. :D

I’d pay Harden $20 mil for two years. I’d rather pay him $15 mill for two years. :D

"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 27, 2009 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions

I think Eli is entirely too focused on cheesecake.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Aug 27, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions

No

He will get a sizable, and decently long term deal. Honestly, his arm is far too scary to invest a lot of money into. When I try to think of what the opposite of “rubber arm” is, Rich Harden definitely comes to mind.

That being said, he deserves a good contract, because he has unbelievable stuff. I just don’t want the Cubs to shell out said contract.

by Mulhollandmania on Aug 27, 2009 1:57 AM CDT reply actions

I bet St. Louis...

…would just lo-ove to add Richie to their payroll.

The Cubs have given enough to the Deadbirds this season.

Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.

by LeSaboteur on Aug 27, 2009 3:21 AM CDT up reply actions

i bet dave duncan could install a robotic pitching arm on harden

Theriot is not clutch, he's double clutch!

by jesus christos on Aug 27, 2009 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes.

’nuff said.

But, because it bears slightly more explanation, a strong front rotation is worth its weight in gold; heading late into the season as we are, having a five/six man rotation that you know can get the job done will take you deep.

As Al has said, “You want a guy on your team who’s done what he has since the ASB.”

Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.

by LeSaboteur on Aug 27, 2009 3:19 AM CDT reply actions

I wouldn't sign Harden UNLESS....

… he would agree to a deal with incentives.

A base of, say, $30 million for four years with easily reachable incentives that would boost it to the $50-60 range would do it for me.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Aug 27, 2009 7:51 AM CDT reply actions

I don't think he would accept that

To be honest, he played for 1 1/2 years. He’ll get a better deal someplace else. That sort of incentive deal sounds like a hometown option, something he might not even feel like he is part of having only been on the Cubs for a limited time.

by ak123 on Aug 27, 2009 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions

He's gone on record as saying he likes it here.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Aug 27, 2009 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions

But I'm sure he'd like a gigantic payday better

by ak123 on Aug 27, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions

or winning

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Aug 27, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions

There are a lot of winning clubs who will pay him what he wants

Yankees and Mets are just two I can think of.

by ak123 on Aug 27, 2009 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions

Mets?

Doubtful. They still have a lot of $ to pay to underachieving players.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Aug 28, 2009 7:17 AM CDT up reply actions

Free agents next year

I could be wrong but a few of their contracts run out next year and they need to sign someone good to get people to go to that ballpark in 2010.

I know people who buy $50 tickets for $2 on stubhub and ebay for games in September…that’s bad.

by ak123 on Aug 28, 2009 7:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Perhaps the Cubs could offer that in an arbitration hearing?

Worst that happens is he doesn’t accept and we get the draft picks. I’d like Rich Harden to remain with the team, but I recognize the financial realities that may keep him from doing so.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Aug 27, 2009 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions

Al your offer is fair.

I think that is the type of deal most Cub fans would accept, now the key is would Harden accept it?

"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"

by Grockcubs on Aug 27, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions

I would like him back

But I feel like the risk of him getting hurt is too high for THIS team. We have plenty of over paid under preforming players. We can afford another one. Yea he could stay healthy and be awesome but he also could get hurt and that would cripple this team again

by Kchance on Aug 27, 2009 9:59 AM CDT reply actions