FanPost

Who's really to blame for this bad season?

Amidst the recent Bradley-bashing that's been going on here and in the media, I keep seeing something that just didn't sit right with me: the notion being bandied about that Bradley's played a large part of the Cubs coming up short of expectations this year.

So I decided to do a little digging: using a reasonable set of expectations for the roster - something I'm sure Hendry was working with this off-season - who has underperformed the most?  Especially given that even the most pessimistic of projections had the Cubs winning 90 games.

For my base set of expectations, I used ACB's excellent projections from the pre-season for the 2009 Cubs. Then I simply subtracted each player's actual WAR from their projected WAR.  One caveat: remember that these projections are for a full season of baseball, while the actual WAR is based on a partial season.  However, enough baseball's been played at this point that it's still a useful thing to look at.

 

 

Player WAR Projected WAR Actual War Diff
Soriano 3.9 -0.7 -4.6
Soto 4.9 1 -3.9
Fontenot 3.3 0.4 -2.9
Harden 4 1.6 -2.4
Ramirez 4.1 1.9 -2.2
Bradley 3.3 1.2 -2.1
Miles 0.2 -1.3 -1.5
Marmol 1.8 0.3 -1.5
Marshall 1.6 0.5 -1.1
Hoffpauir 0.3 -0.7 -1
Dempster 3.1 2.1 -1
Gregg 0.7 -0.3 -1
Zambrano 3.2 2.3 -0.9
Lilly 2.6 2.3 -0.3
Heilman 0.3 0 -0.3
Johnson 0.1 0.1 0
Guzman 0 0.2 0.2
Hill 0 0.3 0.3
Theriot 2 2.4 0.4
Fukudome 2.4 3 0.6
Lee 2.6 3.3 0.7

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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