Questions: Soriano, Dempster, Wells, Soto, Harden
by nickler on Aug 28, 2009 7:32 PM CDT
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As always, thanks for your wisdom. Forgive me if the questions are inane. A great baseball mind I am not.
1. Is Alfonso Soriano a tradeable player? I know it would seem like there would be no way, but the Mets are in dire need of help in the OF and have a long track record of being willing to take on large contracts. While I know that this is not just a large contract (it's an insane contract) I would wonder if they wouldn't be willing to trade with the Cubs. They have bad contract of their own to dump. Certainly, he has the ability to provide great offense, and I can't see the Mets being happy with Jeff Francoer or Cory Sullivan or wanting to keep Gary Sheffield around.
They have their fair share of players/ pitchers with injury issues (Rodriguez, Santana, Beltran, etc.) and with huge contracts with whom they have not been winners. I would think they would want somewhat of a change and the free agent offerings are slim this year. Would they want to trade their overpriced question marks with ours?
Would it even be a good idea to trade Soriano at this point? He has been a big part of the reason we did well the last two years and made the playoffs. Would it be better to chalk this up to a lousy year for him and hope that he returns to his baseline next year?
2. Does Dempster have a NTC? If not, is he worth "selling" to another team as part of a deal to release Soriano or shed salary? His numbers are respectable this year, but I don't see him as a top of the line starter, and particularly if we can hold onto Harden, I would think it would be him that would be the best choice to go.
The free agent pitcher choices this coming year are thin, and I think he'd be a consideration for quite a few teams.
3. What do you all think of Randy Wells? A great year and a great story, but is he going to become the next Rich Hill, or do you think he has staying power? Did he just catch lightning in a bottle? Would it be a good time to trade Wells or does he project to a reliable starter in the future?
4. As for Soto, again, do you think he just had a great year that will not be repeated, or is he worth holding on to? The Cubs seem to win when Koyie Hill plays and he certainly has been competent. Is this another chance to sell high? That said, I wonder if any other teams would want him given the year (or non-year) he has had. Would he even have any value after this absolutely crappy year?
5. How has Gorzelanny looked out there? I thought the Pirates were crazy letting him go at first, but his numbers sure aren't too gaudy right now. Is he pitching well and throwing strikes? What have you all thought? I have been, and still am, very hopeful that he might be a very solid core for the future rotation.
Thanks again for all of your wisdom!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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1) No, probably not.
2) No, he doesn’t appear to have a trade clause.
3) We keep Wells, especially if we let Harden go. He’s cost controlled, and appears to have good stuff.
4) I don’t think they’re going to trade the 2008 ROY, even if he did have a sophomore slump. They’ll have him come back next year to see what he can do.
5) He’s been ok, but not great. He’s a #5 starter.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
ah, that's what
wasn’t listed in Cotts. There ya go.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 28, 2009 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll speak on #1
Soriano isn’t absolutely untradeable, but he will be extremely difficult to trade for a number of reasons. For one, he has a no trade clause. Jim Hendry would have to work out which teams Soriano would be willing to go to. Then he’d have to find a match, where the Cubs take a bad contract back. I think the most popular suggestion has been Soriano for Zito, since the Giants need offense but have excess pitching. I’d point out that Zito’s pitching in a pitcher’s park right now and would probably be a bad fit with the Cubs. I’d rather see if we can pawn Sori off on the Angels. That would mean taking Gary Matthews Jr. back.
At this point, I’d definitely consider trading Soriano if it can make the team better. As a #6 hitter, Soriano is easily replaceable by Jake Fox, and/or by moving Dome to RF, Bradley to LF and leaving CF open for a lead-off type player.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
Re: Soriano - Everybody keeps talking about taking a bad contract back...
Why not try looking at it from another perspective? How much would we have to eat of that $18M/yr before he starts to become tradeable in a normal sense, i.e. prospects or somebody already in the bigs that’s a better fit with the Cubs.
I think he becomes very tradeable at the $9-10M/yr level. Obviously the challenge is finding the right team/fit for this scenario, as well as convincing Soriano to accept it. Oh yeah, and getting Ricketts to sign off on eating $9M/yr. Umm… get ’er done, Jimbo?
Still, I’d rather go that route than take back the likes of a Zito or GMJr.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
For me
I like the idea of getting his contract off the books a few years earlier. That’s why I’d take GM Jr. and have him be a very overpaid backup – which isn’t much different than eating 9 M a year, right? Except that we eat nothing once GM Jr’s contract is up…
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
I keep thinking the Mets might be the best fit for Soraino
seems like the type of team that would take him. Maybe we take Oliver Perez (signed for $12m for 2010 and 2011) and Luis Castillo (signed for 6M for 2010 and 2011).
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
I'd rather have Soriano than Castillo and Perez
That’s just my opinion though. They seem very happy with Pagan in LF surprisingly.
My take
1. Is Soriano tradeable? Well, as much as I’ve bagged on how he’s not, there’s no such thing, imo, as a guy that is untouchable, untradeable, and so forth. You just keep on eating money until it makes sense for someone. Is there such a fit out there? In an era where many of the high spending teams are reeling back their payrolls a bit, you either have to find a really bad contract, or you have to eat a ton of it. At a certain point, if you eat so much of it, and you might as well gamble on Soriano in 2010. Is there a bad contract? I still say that the Cubs/Giants might be able to do a fit if both sides wanted, with that Barry Zito contract. IIRC (too lazy to check Cots right now), Zito has a buyout for the last year. Would both teams agree to a straight swap? Probably not, as the remaining Soriano contract, due to the buyout, is higher. Would the Giants do that? That’s also debatable. I don’t think Zito is a bad influence on their young arms. Would Soriano be good for their upcoming young talent? Don’t know.
There’s probably other options out there, but I’m not sure the Mets would rate highly unless we eat a huge chunk and take on salaries. IIRC from recent news, I don’t think they have much budget flexibility. I guess the short answer is … it’s going to be really hard to move Soriano. Sorry for the cheap response, but that’s the basic answer. Btw, my answer to a Zito/Soriano trade is, if all we have to chip in is a few million, fine, do the deal and get most of the money off the books for 2014. Use Zito as a LOOGY/2nd lefty.
2. Would teams have interest in Dempster? Sure, he’s a solid middle of the rotation starter. He overachieved last year, and he came back to what people expected this year. At 12.5, 13.5, 14 (player option) for the remaining 3 years, it’s not that bad a deal for a middle of the rotation guy. A smidge high perhaps, but we balanced that out with 8 mil this year, and you reap what you sow in trying to manipulate contracts. Is there a team that can handle Dempster/Soriano combined? The idea of coupling Soriano with another player makes sense, but that’s a whole heck of a lot of money to take on. Also, if you move Dempster, you have to assure yourself of signing a starter, whether it be Harden or someone else, before that. Problem is, if you sign someone, then start the manuevering, you could back yourself into a corner.
3. Is Wells going to stay as good as he was this year? I think the betting money would be no, but then again, no one predicted this year. One thing is true, he tightened up his secondary offerings this year and he threw strikes. At worse, he seems like a solid end of the rotation arm, a guy that can give you innings. Always nice to have a guy like that.
4. Of course you hold onto Soto for 2010. You get him a trainer and hope he stays in shape. You hire a good defensive specialist to work with him on refining things. He’s young, he’s cheap, and your top system option likely won’t be ready until 2011 (Welington Castillo). Remember, catchers and offense aren’t exactly two words that go together due to wear and tear. If he can tighten up his receiving skills, then that’s a solid start.
5. I’m fine with Gorzelanny as an end of the rotation lefty/pen arm. As a key part of the future? Not sold yet, but he does have raw ability. Let’s see how an offseason of work makes a difference.
About Wells...
… as I said about him earlier this year, he reminds me of Kevin Tapani, both in the way he throws, the way he approaches his game, and the way he made the majors to stay at age 26.
Tapani won 131 games in a 13-year career and was a key part of three playoff teams. We’d take that, and I think Wells could turn into a Tapani.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's probably a real good comp
I could see Tapani-ish performance (I don’t recall Tapani’s stuff right now). Tapani had an excellent run in the early 1990’s with the Twins before settling into a mid-end of the rotation starter for the rest of his career. I don’t think Wells will be as good as Tapani in the early 90’s, but overall, that’s probably a solid comp.
That's actually
A spot on comparison. I didn’t think of Tap.
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
He actually....
…reminds me of John Leiber, because of his motion and their sliders are almost identical.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
That'd be another fine career to emulate...
… like Tapani, 131 wins in 14 seasons, one 20-win season.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Zito does have a $7 million buyout for 2014,
he also has a no-trade clause.
You can't win in the postseason unless you can manufacture runs. - Hall of Fame 2B Joe Morgan
Re; Soto-I'd love to see them try to unload him
…while he might still have some value. His coming to camp out of shape and his suspect work ethic are major red flags for a guy who once said he wanted to be the next team captain. I have a strong feeling this guy was a “one year wonder” and, assuming he even has any value at this point, I’d love to see the Cubs try to sell “high” for once.
Sell High For Once?
DeRosa was sold high. All the guys in the Harden deal were sold high.
Selling Soto now is not selling high. If you wanted that, how about last winter? Can you imagine the wailing if Hendry did that?
Can you imagine the wailing if Hendry did that?
I agree with that. I’ll also add, what would you gain by trading Soto? Give him a chance to come back, have an actual spring training, plus hopefully stay healthy. Calling him a “one-year wonder,” is just too premature at this point. He is under team control for a few more years anyways. If he does not have a good year next year, Mauer will be a FA, sign him.
You can't win in the postseason unless you can manufacture runs. - Hall of Fame 2B Joe Morgan
Sign Mauer regardless
Are you kidding me? he can play anywhere, he’d lengthen his career moving to first or a corner spot anyway….he’d be worth a mega deal, if you can get him to leave his hometown
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
so you're going to base his worth
on two seasons of play in the bigs?
I wonder what other players have had sophomore slumps and then come back big in their third year…
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 28, 2009 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions
trading Soto now
could hardly be called selling high?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 29, 2009 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
It depends.
If Soto is never any good ever again, we are selling high by trading him when people still think he might be good.
If he can be good again, than we’d definitely be selling low.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
Just becasue his value could go lower
does not mean trading him now would be trading him high. Trading after a good season would be trading him high.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Aug 30, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Ddi you mean trade Geo while he is "high"
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
I'm very cost-controlled, so
1. Good luck.
2. He’s a nice 2 starter, of which we have 3. I’d be open to trading him, but only for value in return.
3. Cost controlled. Keep him.
4. Cost controlled, keep him.
5. See 4.
Okay here goes...
1)Anybody’s tradeable, but you’d have either have to eat a large part of the contract or take a bad contract back. I’d rather keep him, because I don’t think the Cubs have a better option to replace him.
2) His big contract means it’d be very hard to trade him, especially after a down year. Again it’s doable, but I’d rather just keep him. He’s a great clubhouse presence.
3)Keep him. His peripheral stats seem to indicate he can keep up the good work. I’m not expecting him to be this good on a yearly basis, but I think he’ll be a good back-of-the-rotation innings eater, at worst.
4) I still think Soto’s got potential to be great. I might move him if the right offer comes along, but it’d have to be a damn good one.
5)He’s a work-in-progress. He’s got a shot to be a quality starter, and there’s no real negative to keeping him around.
geo
everybody has a bad season. maybe soto will work harder and be hungry again next year. he was really a big assett last year. dempster stays healthy and has a great attitude. he plays on my team. fonz will be tough to unload. not impossible but i would rather see bradley gone. his attitude seems to be the same as it was everywhere else. go away.
A modest proposal
Soriano makes sense to any team only as a DH. If you can’t trade him to the AL and eat many millions of his contract, make him a fulltime pinch-hitter with the Cubs. Just because you’re spending the money doesn’t mean you have to have him botching every ball hit to left field. You can find someone cheap who can hit .240 AND play the outfield to major league standards. Save him for one important at-bat each game. Maybe there are 100 such situations a year. Even if he hits at this year’s puny pace, he’ll win a few games with his bat.
REC'D
And probably lose a bunch, too! Although, maybe it would help him if he doesn’t see a CONSTANT parade of low and aways….maybe if he came up once a game, he could be more disciplined…that aside, your whole comment is SPOT ON!
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