Pretty Plots of Soriano's Power
This is a link to my work over at ACB on what's wrong with Alfonso Soriano... or, more accurately, what was wrong with Soriano. The short answer is his power has declined steadily over the last few years and he's lost some plate coverage. The good news is that it looks like he may have made adjustments in July that have the potential to bring him back to previous production levels. The sample sizes are small on this so only time will tell whether he does become the monster at the plate we know he's been or if this is just a temporary respite from the ills of age-induced regression.
I'll be in and out all day as I have other (real) work to do. But if you have questions feel free to leave them here or at ACB and I'll be happy to answer them at some point.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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88 comments
Comments
"power has declined steadily"????
What numbers are you looking at? He hit 33 homers in 579 ab’s in 2007 and 29 HR in like just under 500 ab’s. Those numbers are about his career average if you look at HR/ab’s.
He just took a long time to adjust this year, but since the beginning of July he has been great.
by CubFaninStLouis on Aug 3, 2009 1:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He's been horribly inconsistent this year
But the results are about the same, minus some BA
by madcow256 on Aug 3, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read the article?
“power has declined steadily”???? What numbers are you looking at?
It’s extremely clear from the article what numbers he was looking at (ISO).
by Wreckard on Aug 3, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had to laugh at "lost some plate coverage"...
Do they have an stats on how well he covers the opposite batter’s box?
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Aug 3, 2009 1:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he basically went from...
pounding everything in the other batter’s box to tapping everything in the other batter’s box.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 3, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Solid read.
Thanks for the link! God knows what to expect from him in those last two years.
by Flatley on Aug 3, 2009 2:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Soriano's Power Problem.
Soriano’s only problem is he swings at sliders in the dirt when he has 2 strikes on him. If he would just get rid of the ’I’m an All – Star’ mentality and dicipline himself at the plate, he could return to dominance.
by Gesiakob on Aug 3, 2009 2:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nope, not the problem.
Don’t get me wrong, Soriano is a hacker. But he always has been and his K rate hasn’t gone up significantly. It’s his power that has declined. He could offset the loss in production from his power decrease by being more selective at the plate but the change from last year to this year isn’t due to swinging at more sliders in the dirt.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 3, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sean's right
If anything, Sori’s swinging at more garbage lately.
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 3, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's What I'd Like To See Shawn
Soriano being more selective at the plate. It’s not like he’s the first player to have a decline in his power the second half of his career. I just think with a contract over 100 million he should try and increase his on base percentage.
by Gesiakob on Aug 3, 2009 2:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a fair critique.
I just wanted to make it clear that Soriano’s dropoff from last year to this year wasn’t due to a lack of patience. He wasn’t a patient hitter last year, either.
Soriano may just be at the point in his career where he can’t crush the same balls he used to be able to. The silver lining to that cloud is that if it forces him to be more patient and he makes the requisite adjustment he could be a more useful hitter because of it in the long run. That’s speculation on my part, but it’s consistent with what I’ve found.
That strategy has worked well for Aramis, who has seen a (less severe) decline in power but an increase in his BB/K ratio. However Ramirez was a more patient hitter than Soriano to begin with and I don’t know if Soriano can develop that “tool.” Hopefully for the Cubs’ sake, he can.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 3, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's hope playing on a team with Aramis, Fukudome and Bradley can push him in that direction.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Aug 3, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right!
And that’s where Lou Piniella and the coaching staff come into play. It’s like look dude, we’re paying you millions to hit. That is your job. Get it together for the sake of the team.
by Gesiakob on Aug 3, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not that simple.
Do you blame Theriot for not hitting 40 HR’s a year? It may be that pitch recognition and selection is as much as inherent skill as power or speed is.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 3, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Plate discipline is the sixth tool.
by cubsforever on Aug 4, 2009 3:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theriot Hitting Home Runs Is A Bonus
Theriot is not being paid a multi year contract over 100 million dollars. Soriano is an employee. An employee is supposed to do what their bosses tell them to do. I think a lot of professional sports players forget that sometimes. I know it is not simple to get them to always do what’s expected. I was just giving an example of various techniques that could be inplemented to get him to perform at the level we have the right to expect.
by Gesiakob on Aug 3, 2009 7:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't see Soriano playing up to that contract.
I don’t think he has the talent to do it. Not many do, mind you. He’s not to blame for the size of his contract.
I think he’s a guy you just have to learn to live with swinging and missing a lot… but also swinging and crushing a lot, as well.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 3, 2009 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball players and their agents negotiate contracts...
…based on what the market will bear at the time of those negotiations. If you get caught up in hoping/expecting a player to produce at a level commensurate to his (admittedly outrageous) salary, you will almost always be disappointed. For your own peace of mind, I’d respectfully suggest letting go of the money angle and focus on the hope that Soriano will do something, anything to help the 2009 Cubs win baseball games.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Aug 4, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good on ya.
That’s the right attitude to have. Soriano shouldn’t be expected to do something outside his capabilities just because the Cubs will be paying him more than he’ll be worth the next few years. He should try but you can’t demand things like that. Sometimes they just don’t happen no matter how hard someone tries.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soriano the employee
Soriano has always been a free swinger, not unusual for Caribbean players. Manny Sanguillen once responded when asked why he swings at so many pitches out of the strike zone, you cannot walk off the island. Soriano follows that same principle, always has, and the Cubs knew that when they signed him. If they signed him hoping he would morph into a classic leadoff hitter, shame on the Cubs.
Yes, he does need to be more disciplined than he has been this season, but he is never going to be a disciplined hitter, and the Cubs knew that when they got him.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 4, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Care to share any other stereotypical cliches?
I guess Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrrero, David Ortiz and Carlos Delgado never got your memo about not being able to walk off the island. They are all in the top 25 of OBP among active players.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_perc_active.shtml
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 4, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So citing the numbers of five superstars negates the general idea?
Four of those five also have career BA over .310, which all rank in the top NINE of active players for BA.
Care to restate your thoughts?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 4, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thought is that you can't say guys from the Caribbean are ..... You like stereotypes propagated on your site? Great
Saying a guy doesn’t walk because he’s from the Caribbean is just stupid. Evidently you disagree. Unless you would like to restate your thoughts.
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 4, 2009 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you restate his thoughts for him like you did mine?
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2009 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your wrote what you wrote.
“Soriano has always been a free swinger, not unusual for Caribbean players.” You were the one equating his ethnicity with his plate discipline, not me. I find that concept completely ridiculous. By the way, I would imagine Soriano considers himself Dominican not Caribbean. You presented a tired and cliched stereotype which apparently Al agreed with, I just happen to disagree with both of you. .
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 5, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
(sigh)
Yes, I happen to agree with Manny Sanguillen, that it is not unusual for Caribbean ballplayers to be aggressive free swingers. That does not preclude many from being highly disciplined. Sadly Soriano is not one of those disciplined hitters, he is one of those free swingers, and it does not appear that will ever change, which was my original point before you decided to change the subject.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your point connected Soriano's lack of plate discipline with his ethnicity. I didn't interject it into the conversation.
It’s not unusual for players of any background to be free swingers. You obviously don’t get the point. Being from the Dominican Republic has nothing to do with Soriano’s plate discipline. If country of origin made a difference why would we see players of Soriano’s same background possessing great plate discipline? You just refuse to come off your stereotyped cliche and you obviously want to believe it. That’s your choice but do not say that I somehow changed the subject. You established your belief and I refuted it, you continue to cling to your misconceptions.
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 6, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no way to avoid offending
a person determined to be offended.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where did I say I was offended. I just called your gross overgeneralization out.
Way to avoid the actual argument and attempt to shift the topic when you can offer zero data to back-up your claims.
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 6, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you do have a sense of humor
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 7, 2009 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Active players that are in the top 60 in the league in career bases on balls that were born on a Caribbean Island:
Manny Ramirez
Carlos Delgado
Jorge Posada
Albert Pujols
David Ortiz
Luis Castillo
Carlos Beltran
Vladimir Guerrero
Jose Cruz
Mike Lowell
Rafael Furcal
Miguel Tejada
Ivan Rodriguez
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 4, 2009 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So your stance is that...
the stereotype is accurate.
Care to restate your thoughts?
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait...
is your argument that Pujols, Ramirez, and Ortiz are all free-swinging latinos that don’t have any plate discipline but have high OBP numbers because of their batting averages? Here are their career walk rates:
Ramirez: 13.8%
Ortiz: 13.3%
Pujols: 13.6%
Delgad: 13.2%
Soriano: 5.9%
So the evidence is clear: you can be from the Caribbean and still have good plate discipline.
I’m honestly curious to see where you are going with this…. you come across as defending an absolutely absurd position (all latinos are hacks at the plate) with numbers that have nothing to do with your argument and are almost as absurd as the larger point you seem to defend. I mean, high BA as a measure of bad plate discipline? Really?
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, you can be from the Caribbean and have good plate discipline.
I’d like to see a list of ALL Caribbean players, compared to all NON-Caribbean players, rather than have you quote a list of a handful of superstars who have good plate discipline.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 8:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, Al
why don’t YOU take a look at this yourself? I’m waiting.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
by berselius on Aug 5, 2009 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because I wasn't the one who made the original point.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither was I.
I’m the only one that’s brought relevant data to the conversation. Well, that’s not being fair. Acapulco brought some too, which you also ignored.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aye, but making pithy and condescending statements like "Care to restate your thoughts?"
certainly makes it seem like you would care enough about this to look into it yourself
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
by berselius on Aug 5, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
Not gonna go it. I’ve shown evidence against the main point. It’s up to the person that suggested the idea “not unusual for Caribbean players” to put some evidence up in support of it. Something other than a quote.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
... and furthermore
I could go on and on giving you a long list of names of players with good plate discipline that are of Caribbean descent. The point isn’t whether or not Caribbean players have better plate discipline than the average player. It’s whether or not it’s “unusual” that someone from the Caribbean has poor plate discipline. Of course it isn’t! But it also isn’t “unusual” for players from the U.S. or Japan or Norway to have bad plate discipline.
The original post made it seem as if most Caribbean players have plate discipline issues. I was providing data counter to that point. Dismiss it all you want but the data are real and they stand contrary to that idea, even if it’s a mis-read of the original post.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You did provide data, and so did Acapulco.
Nevertheless, I’d like to see side by side comparisons. No one has done that yet.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right. No one, including lookingdeadred or yourself.
So is the “jury still out” on the ability of Caribbean players to take a walk?
I think it’s safest to assume the trend does NOT exist unless there is some compelling evidence in favor of it, especially when it comes to making generalizations about particular groups of people.
I’m really surprised you’re taking this stance.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was...
… that citing five superstars as evidence that this is not the case, isn’t the best way to make the point.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So is citing 0 players a better way to make it?
Remember, we’re making the counter-argument here. We’re not making a point, we’re refuting it. Doing it for a whole population would take some time. The onus is (as you pointed out) on the person that originally postulated this, not on us. We’ve conclusively shown that it isn’t true for all players from the Caribbean. It’s not on us to show it may be true for most of them.
Also, will you at least admit that those guys have good plate discipline, and it’s not just inflated by a high BA?
Why is this so hard to understand?
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take a look at the top 25 active players in BA...
… those five are in the top NINE.
They’re more scattered through the OBA top 25. I’d maintain that a fair amount of the OBA is generated by their batting averages, granted that those five do have good plate discipline.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So your argument is...
that their OBA is inflated by a high BA? Fine, there’s a stat that separates those two things. BB%. I posted it.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
(sigh)
If you have a problem with my comment take it up with Manny Sanguillen. He made the comment. I am sure when he made it he did not mean to say that no Caribbean players have plate discipline, but as one himself, he making a generalization about players like himself.
Now I will leave you to your next self-righteous rant.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you repeated it as truth!
Look if you don’t think that it’s the case that Caribbean hitters are undisciplines, then fine. I’ll stop arguing with you because we’re in agreement in that case. But you seemed to be using his quote as support for your argument, not stating it as the opinion of one that you disagreed with.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said: ""Soriano has always been a free swinger, not unusual for Caribbean players."
Somehow you and Acapulco Taco read (incorrectly) that to mean all Caribbean players are undisciplined. I cannot be held responsible for your reading comprehension problems. .
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did it occur to you that Sanguillen's point was that walks don't get a player noticed?
You may also want to recognize that Sanguillen played in a different era when OBP wasn’t as highly valued as it is now. For you to take Sanguillen’s remarks and then postulate it as a stereotyped cliche is not on him. It’s on you. At least have the stones to stand behind what you said.
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 5, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess you read numbers and charts better than words
I said: “Soriano has always been a free swinger, not unusual for Caribbean players.”
You claim that my post states: “…all latinos are hacks at the plate…”
How exactly you got from my statement to your perversion of my statement is an interesting question?
The moral of the story: if you are going to go after something I posted, get what I posted right, don’t make stuff up.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2009 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I have a problem...
it’s that I’m oversensitive to people making sweeping accusations against other groups of people. That’s a fault I can live with.
The problem with your defense here is this:
“Jeff Franceour has always been a free swinger, not unusual for U.S. players. The great slugger so-and-so once said ‘they don’t pay me to take a walk.”
That statement is every bit as true as yours and would have just as much factual support. Players with bad plate discipline could be described as “not unusual” regardless of country of origin, hair color, or sexual orientation. It seemed as if you were singling out Caribbean players as being particularly noteworthy for their poor plate discipline. Acapulco Tea Party and I provided evidence contrary to your point (whereas all you’ve provided is a humorous but ultimately irrelevant quote). If I read that wrong I apologize but it’s hard to find another way to read it.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is only hard to find another way to read my post
if you are predisposed to see and think the worst.
Since you seem to imply I have some sort of bias against Caribbean ballplayers, I guess you must also think Manny Sanguillen does, too.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I don't
Soriano has always been a free swinger, not unusual for Caribbean players. Manny Sanguillen once responded when asked why he swings at so many pitches out of the strike zone, you cannot walk off the island.
He didn’t say anything about Caribbean players. You did.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, please.
What islands did you think Sanguillen was talking about? The Philippines?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Read it again, AL
Sanguillen was talking about himself
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
by berselius on Aug 5, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
(shaking my head)
He was referring to Caribbean players like himself for cryin out loud. Get a grip.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Read the quote.
I emphasized one of the words for a reason.
Pretty please?
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Splitting hairs.
You don’t think Sanguillen was repeating something well known to people from Caribbean islands? Or something that baseball people have taken as a (possibly overbroad) generalization?
Seriously, you think ONLY Manny Sanguillen ever believed that?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No it's not splitting hairs.
Why are you failing so miserably at reading comprehension today? Lookingdeadred was defending himself by saying “don’t blame me, blame manny!” I was simply pointing out that it was LDR that made the generalization, not Manny Sanguillen.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, OK...
… maybe I’m not reading the threads right.
I still would like to see some comparisons between Caribbean and non-Caribbean players regarding plate discipline. Surely, you could come up with a chart.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may do this.
Might. If I have time. But I don’t expect to find anything and predict it will be a waste of time. So I’m not very motivated to take a look…
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be interested to see it, if you have time.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think don't just react before posting next time please
Clearly Sanguillen was referring to himself as typical of his fellow Caribbean ballplayers. As Acapulco surmises, Sanguillen said he and many other Caribbean ballplayers are free swingers because getting hits is more likely to get you noticed than getting walks.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
... and as far as "superstars" are concerned...
what about Aramis Ramirez? Geovany Soto? You shouldn’t even have to think that hard to come up with names.
This position is beyond absurd.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 12:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
apparently so
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2009 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What isn't apparent is why you are clinging to overly broad generalizations that have been refuted.
Can you offer any unbiased statistical evidence that supports your claim? You can cling to your views or you can look at the actual evidence to see if it supports your beliefs. It’s not much of a discussion if you just say that it’s what you believe and can provide no actual data to support your belief.
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 5, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fukudome walked right off his island
Argument over. Done deal sealed
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
by berselius on Aug 5, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ricky
henderson stole a lot of bases because he is black and black people are fast.
fukudome is very good at fundamentals because all Japanese people are disciplined and go by the code of bushido
“caribbean’s” cant take a walk, white guys are all gamers who play it the “right way”
all of these are stereotypes and its a shame some seem to believe and support them.
by CalCalender on Aug 5, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stereotypes often have some basis in fact.
Look, I agree with your basic premise, as long as you will acknowledge the statement in my subject line is true.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know a couple cheap jews!
I also have a very lose friend that’s jewish that makes jokes about how cheap jews are.
I’ll wait until you show me data on the frugality of the average jewish American vs. the average American. Prove me wrong.
Stereotypes often have some basis in fact.
Do you see how silly your arguments are?
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
argh! *close* friend
although I must say the chap is also a loser.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sheesh.
You know me well enough to know I’m not making that sort of argument.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
then what argument are you making?
Are you just stating that there are sometimes truths at the root of stereotypes to state that… or is it supposed to be relevant to this conversation?
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stereotypes often have some basis in falsehood.
Both statements are true. Sometimes the stereotypes have a nugget of truth at their core, and sometimes they do not.
This particular stereotype is one that has been given no factual support other than a quote by a person of that group. So it may possibly have a basis in fact, but in fact that no evidence has been presented to show that to be the case. How is this a valid defense?
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have time to go through all the data.
Perhaps you do.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I don't have that time.
But the point is… we’ve shown counter-examples to the original point. The counter argument has been… “well, what about the larger data set?” The burden of proof should be on those making generalizations or trying to show a stereotype is accurate not on those that have already provided counter-examples to the suggested trend.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your examples, again...
… cite the records of five superstars, to deny what you claim is a myth.
To make the claim you have made, you should have compared it to the larger data set.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ARghh...
I’m making no claims, I’m refuting them! Sure that’s a claim in and of itself. But I’ve done more to disprove the statement than anyone has done to prove it.
I appreciate you being interested in the dataset, but I’m not. I don’t expect to find anything there and have more interesting things to look at that I expect to be more fruitful/useful.
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You do this a lot Al.
Shawn’s very clear and very right here – if I hold a ridiculous belief, such as “Caribbean players can’t take a walk”, the burden of proof is on me to back that up. You can’t just run around claiming ridiculous things and saying “Prove me wrong.” When you do that, you’re making other people do your work for you.
Lots of anecdotal evidence was provided that runs counter to this claim. Why do you keep trying to shift the burden of proof away from the people who have this unsupported belief?
by Wreckard on Aug 5, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So it's on the people that aren't stereotyping to prove they are correct?
I cited two different sets of data that show “Caribbean” born players get on base and walk. You abruptly dismissed my facts and implied you agreed with the overly broad generalization that provided no data whatsoever. Prove that your opinion is valid, I have provided at least some statistical data that supports my belief. Can you do the same?
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Aug 5, 2009 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
great work Shawn
the color charts really show his issues. Did you look at any pitches/at bat data? I thought I heard Brenly mention Sori is seeing more pitches per at-bat this year. I found that to be fit in the “hard to believe” category as his BB% has not increased. Maybe more foul balls missing hittable pitches?
I tend to agree with Harry—I think he has a mechanical flaw. From watching games, he has missed a significant number of fastballs/sliders RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE (agreement with your charts). I, personally, believe it’s his timing concerning his leg kick. Oftentimes, when a player is “late” on pitches and fouling them back or missing them, it’s because the front foot is not down early enough in the swing. It’s easy to get a leg kick generated with enough time to hit facing 65 MPG BP fastballs—even Albert Pjuols did an extreme leg kick in the HR Derby—but when facing MLB pitchers being late with the front foot down = being late with the hands.
Is there pitch data which shows the pitch/speed/location of the swings and misses or foul balls? And I am not asking you to crunch it—just inquiring.
Thanks Shawn.
by socalbob on Aug 4, 2009 11:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
ESPN has pitches/plate appearance
by californiachicagoan on Aug 4, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
Not sure if it is statistically relevant or not—.36 more pitchers per 4 at bats—so about 1 more pitch for every 3 games? But I guess it’s a good sign. It would probably jump into a very significant range if he could ever lay off the damn breaking ball in the dirt.
I’m going to go look at some more of these numbers.
by socalbob on Aug 4, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could do what you're asking with the foul balls...
but I can’t. Not enough time.
And I agree Soriano has — or HAD — a mechanical flaw. Looks like he got it worked out in July. Fontenot’s hitting now and if Bradley finds his power swing as a LHB this team will score a LOT of runs the rest of the way.
Thanks for the feedback!
by shawndgoldman on Aug 5, 2009 12:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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