A look at the Cardinals last 54

by KDoggers on Aug 3, 2009 8:00 PM CDT Comment 25 comments

As I said, if there was enough response to this fanpost, I would go ahead and do a similar look at the last 54 games of the Cardinals.

I'm not going to sit here and lie and say that the Cardinals aren't a good team. They're pretty good, but they've blown some of the opportunities they've had to step on the throats of the Central this season, and I think they're going to regret that come the end of September.

That being said, let's go take a look...

The Central

Pirates 6 games (3 Home, 3 Away) 45-59 as of August 3rd
The Pirates are not good. I discussed this before. Interestingly, though, the Cardinals have lost 4 games to them so far this season. While the team that was playing in August and May is vastly different than the team playing now, I'm thinking the Pirates will be doing their damnedest to be spoilers later in the season, while simultaneously fighting for their big league roles next year.

I'm thinking a split across the series, 3 total wins for the Cardinals here.

Reds 6 games (3 Home, 3 Away) 45-59 as of August 3rd
The Reds are still that team we figured they'd be. Their manager refuses to understand the concept of not running your players into the ground, and so that's never going to work to their advantage.

Cardinals are .500 against the Reds right now, . having won the exact same number of home and away games. I fully expect this trend to continue, so another 3 total wins for the Cardinals here.

Astros 6 games (3 Home, 3 Away) 52-53 as of August 3rd
The Astros actually hold the season series right now, at 5-4. They tend to beat up on each other, and if the Astros can catch the backend of the rotation once, I think it could be pretty interesting, but again, I'm going to say roughly .500 ball here.

3 wins to the Cardinals.

Brewers 9 games (3 Home, 6 Away) 52-53 as of August 3rd
Here's another time where the Brewers actually own the series record right now, and still have the concept that maybe they're in this thing. (They aren't.) The majority of the games being at Miller Park, you would think, would be helpful, but they're actually not.

Anyways, Cards get 6 here. Brewers likely take 1 in St. Louis, 2 in Milwaukee. I'm not keen on the concept of rooting for the Brewers, but it shouldn't affect us too much in anyway. They don't have the pitching to keep up in a tight division race.

Cubs 3 games (3 Home) 55-48 as of August 3rd
The Cubs absolutely must take at least two of three. So by default, Cards get 1.

---

The East

Mets 2 games (2 Away) 50-54 as of August 3rd
The Cardinals will want to come out strong here, but Santana is coming off a strong win against a hot Rockies team, and will want to try and prove something against a strong hitting Cardinals team.

Cardinals lose both, as Lohse won't be able to keep his stuff together in the second game.

Nationals 3 games (3 Away) 33-72 as of August 3rd
The Cardinals win 2 of these. I'm giving the Nationals a lot of credit, but even a blind dog finds water. Especially in their own home.

Braves 3 games (3 Home) 53-52 as of August 3rd
The Cardinals took 2 of 3 from Atlanta in Atlanta, but Atlanta is going to be in the thick of the East punching he's other in the face over and over and over.

Cardinals win 1 in St. Louis.

Marlins 3 games (3 Home) 55-50 as of August 3rd
The Marlins come in between the Braves and the Cubs. The Marlins will catch one off of them as the Cardinals bounce back from losing to Atlanta, but they'll be looking forward to us.

Cardinals win 2

---

The West

Padres 7 games (3 Home, 4 Away) 43-63 as of August 3rd
Oh, the Padres aren't any good, but the Cardinals won't be able to hit in Petco, and will be able to in St. Louis

Cards get 4 games.

Dodgers 3 games (3 Away) 65-40 as of August 3rd
Dodgers are going to be trying to shake off their abysmal performance in St. Louis, and are really hardcore in LA. Expect a Dodgers sweep (which will help lock the West up for them)

Cards get none.

Rockies 3 games (3 Away) 58-47 as of August 3rd
Rockies take 2 of 3, as they're trying to grasp their Wild Card spot right at the end.

----

This is 26 wins for them. I realize that's slightly optimistic, so I'm willing to accept any number that's 2 to 3 wins smaller than the Cubs. Feel free to tell me how ignorant I am below.

(Oh, and BLou, we know the Cubs are going to win 83 max. So, thanks for that in advance. :P)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs | Comment 25 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

interesting

that you have the cardinals only splitting their remaining games with the REDS AND PIRATES!!!!!!! are you kidding me? unbelievable.

by John T. Unger on Aug 3, 2009 8:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it's that out there.

They’ve effectively split all the others. Like I said at the end, I’m willing to give them a couple extra, up to maybe 30-31 wins total for the rest of the season.

30 wins would be .555, which isn’t unheard as that’s basically what they’ve been doing this season.

by KDoggers on Aug 3, 2009 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting note

In NL Central Games:

Cubs are 31-22 and Cardinals are 27-23. That split referenced above might not be that crazy of a thought.

Actually I think Cubs have always had a good record vs. NL Central. I remember even in 2006, Cubs played .500 in the division (they only won 14 games outside of NL Central for the year—- that’s Nationals pathetic). Cardinals, who happened to win World Series that year were 39-42.

by ak123 on Aug 3, 2009 9:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Correction

They won 24 outside of the division in 2006. Just had to add that before someone kindly corrected me.

by ak123 on Aug 3, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do the Cubs have to win 2 out of 3 against the Cardnials?

FIRE VDN

by gocubs526 on Aug 3, 2009 9:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Would you prefer they not?

Seriously, though, whenever you’re in a divisional race, I would say it should be a must win to win the last series against the team you’re battling against. Winning two is an easy way to gain a game on them in the standings.

by KDoggers on Aug 3, 2009 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, can't agree with the MUST take 2 of 3 position

Obviously, where both squads respectively position themselves leading up to that series will tell us how much we’re going to stake on the outcome of that particular series. Simply too early to tell at this point!

Even then, winning 1 of 3 instead of 2 of 3 probably is not going to be the nail in the coffin with 9 games left to play. Nevertheless, MLB certainly didn’t do us any favors with what is shaping up to be a devil of a road trip!

by Section138 on Aug 3, 2009 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

because it makes

the baby LaRussa cry.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Aug 3, 2009 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

While I like the effort you've put into it

You seem to have also-rans playing the Cardinals tough but rolling over for the Cubs.

A nice thought, but I’d be surprised if that was the case.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 3, 2009 10:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That's know as the BLou factor.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Aug 3, 2009 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't it be the anti-BLou factor?

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 3, 2009 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 4, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those "also-rans"

Legimitately played the Cardinals tough earlier in the year. We all have those mediocre teams that beat us.

by KDoggers on Aug 3, 2009 11:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

*legitimately

by KDoggers on Aug 3, 2009 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nevertheless, they are also-rans

They’re not going to be up for the Cards any more than they will the Cubs.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 3, 2009 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good post, ditto for the Cubs schedule breakdown

I got the Cubs winning 36 games (that White Sox make up game is going to be real important IMO), Cardinals win 35 games. Cubs end with 92 wins, Cardinals end with 93 wins, Cubs get WC. I think you are really underselling the Cardinals here KDoggers. They added 2 great players, and some of the teams they are facing have significantly different rosters than earlier this here (e.g., Pirates) and others which have minor changes which could be meaningful (SD – no peavy, Washington – no Johnson) etc…. The Cubs should do well with their remaining schedule because they kill below .500 teams, and have trouble against +.500 teams (pretty much same as the last two years).

So Cardinals win NL Central and the Cubs win the WC. COL, SF have to play each other and the Dodgers many more times this season. So I see them both falling out of the WC lead. For the Cubs, the season will be won or lost with that trip to STL and SF. I’m expecting STL to win the series against us 2-1. I expect us to play around .500 ball against +.500 teams, and play closer to .650 ball against the rest. I’d give my predictions an error of +/- 2 games either way for the Cards and Cubs. Cards range 90-94 wins, Cubs range 91-93 wins.

This is going to be a great two months of baseball! It should go right down to the last weekend to decide both the NL central and WC. I like the Cubs chances at the division, but I believe the Cardinals additions of Holliday and DeRo will pay dividends. But, top to bottom, when healthy, I still believe the Cubs have a better team than the Cardinals.

by magicblue on Aug 3, 2009 11:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If you think it'll go down to the last weekend

what do you think the Cubs’ chances are then? They end the season here against the snakes. The series before? Here against the Bucs.

They need to make hay in the 17/23 at home stretch between 8/25 & 9/17. The 6 road games sandwiched in that 17/23 stretch at home is Pgh and NYM.

Right after that 17/23 at home is the 10-game trip you alluded to: 3 in Stl, 3 in Milw, 4 in SF.

Either way, I have the Cards at 90 wins.

Just win the next game...!

by blackhawk24 on Aug 4, 2009 7:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree for the most part

If the Cubs can maintain the same winning percentage they have had at Wrigley so far this season during that 17/23 at home stretch, we’ll be in good shape. I really just think KDoggers was selling the Cardinals short, their schedule is pretty easy as well with mostly below .500 teams the rest of the way. For example, I think the Cards will go 5-1 or 4-2 vs the Pirates and Reds (not 3-3), and I think they’ll go 2-4 versus COL and LAD on the road (not 1-5). The Cardinals also played pretty well in what I thought was a make or break stretch having to play PHI, LAD, and HOU last week.

I am by no means saying the Cubs can’t win the division, I just think its going to come down to that 10 game road trip to STL, MIL, and SF. If the Cubs can break even or post a winning record on that trip, and come back home and go 5-1 or 4-2 at home against PIT and AZ to the end the season, than we can still win the division. But head to head, I think the Cardinals got an easier schedule than the Cubs. The Brewers will have a big say in who wins the NL Central this year as they play both the Cubs and Cards 15 times between now and Oct 4th.

by magicblue on Aug 4, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like the optimism

and I’d like to see the same, however I see them winning 1 more game than you show against each of these teams: Pgh, Cin, ’stros, Atl, SD & LA.

Like you mentioned they’re a good team so unless their pitching starts to really fall down, Holliday slumps while Pujols stays in his slump, they’re more like 32-22 instead of the 26-28 you’re showing.

Again, I like the enthusiasm but you’re looking at an 84-78 final record for them; too low. I have them more like 90-72. That’d make the Cubs have to do a minimum of 35-23 in their last 58.

The Cubs have 5 left with Cincy, 9 with the Bucs, 7 Brewers, 3 Birds & 3 ‘stros. Here’s where the Cubs have to make hay. 27 games against divisional teams.

They should be able to go well above .500 in those games (19-8). Now add 3 in SD, 3 here vs the Nats, 7 total against the Mets & 3 here to close the season against the snakes (10-6), that’s 43 of their final 58 against teams that are not exactly the cream of the crop.

They’ll struggle (6-9) against the tougher teams (1 makeup vs the ChiSox, 4 in Col, 3 in SF, 4 in LA, 3 here against Philly). So that’s the 35-23 I referenced above; 19-8 in the division, 10-6 against some weaker non-division teams and 6-9 against the tougher teams. 56-48 (+) 35-23 (=) 91-71 It’s several games lower than my preseason prediction (99 wins) but if your Cards prediction holds up the Cubs should be just fine. How’s that for someone who likes look only at the next game?

Just win the next game...!

by blackhawk24 on Aug 4, 2009 7:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think your analysis of 26 wins for the Cardinals are VERY VERY low.

If I were a Cardinals fan looking at the matchups and feeling my team is playing at it’s peak, I would give them 40 wins.

Most likely them being on “fire” won’t happen but they will play good baseball, meaning they probably win around 35 games…till 9 games over your very very optimistic Cubs view of the Cardinals.

by desmoCubbie on Aug 4, 2009 12:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Reading the comments

You’ll notice that I alloted for the possibility of 4-5 extra, putting them at 30-31.

Yeah, they’re not bad. I’ve said that, several times. Might they win? Sure, there’s a pretty good chance, but I don’t think that we can assume they’re going to cakewalk through the rest of their schedule. They’ll get hit.

I’ll readjust it to this, will it make you feel better? The Cardinals will have 88 wins.

by KDoggers on Aug 4, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It certainly doesn't make me feel better lol.

It would make me feel better if they lost all 54 of their games. But 30 – 31 games is a bit more realistic than 26. I still think that they will win around 35 +/- 2 and cubs will win 38 +/- 2 giving them a division win with the Cards 1 game back. That’s my prediction.

by desmoCubbie on Aug 4, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs