Questions: Stats, bullpen, draft, 2B, SS
by nickler on Aug 31, 2009 12:35 AM CDT
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As always, thanks in advance for your wisdom.
Also, what is considered a good SLG percentage, and what would be considered average?
I had really always thought it was just OBP (a Billy Beane-ism) but of course that doesn't take into consideration someone's power. It does really suck however, to watch someone who never gets on base.
2. What do you think they will do with the pen after this year? I would assume Gregg and Heilman will not be offered arbitration and that Marmol and Guzman will stay, and that Grabow will be offered arbitration. Do you think we go after a high priced closer, just use the players in the minors, or try to make a patchwork with low and middle-priced veterans on the FA market?
3. Do you think that this is the year we trade Marshall? I really think that he's maximizing his value now and that his value won't go up. Also, I don't think we need him with Grabow and Gorzelanny, and Wells has essentially taken his position in the rotation. Don't you think now we be the time to sell high and pull the trigger? Nobody thought we should trade Wells now that his value is high when I last asked.
4. I haven't been able to watch a whole lot of games, but have always been intrigued by Gorzelanny and have been hoping he'll be an ace for Chicago. In fact, I thought Pittsburgh was crazy to give up on him. His ERA has been poor, yet his numbers are impressive: WHIP of 1.17 and SO/BB ratio of 2.8... He's given up 25 hits and 3 HR in 30 IP. That seems pretty good to me. Why is his ERA so poor? Is he just getting unlucky and giving up hits in bunches? How has he looked to all of you? (What pitches does he have, how has his control/velocity been, what can he work on).
5. If a team cannot work out a deal with a draft pick (i.e., they are too cheap to work out a deal) can another team come in and draft them, or does the draft pick have to sit out a year? Also, how do draftings work with international players? Can't a team just pay a bunch of money to a foreign player they like (as with Fukudome or Matzusaka)? Why do some of the foreign players have do go through the draft? Why wasn't a player like Alexei Ramirez (a young, fast, good defensive SS-- something many teams are looking for) chased by a whole bunch of teams-- including the Cubs (i.e., how did the White Sox wind up with the guy)?
6. What do you all think the plan for 2B is next year? Do you really think that Fox is going to be our starting 2B, i.e., has this even been mentioned by management? Or do you think that Fox will be on the trade wire and that we will try to obtain a real 2B.
Don't you all think that, with Theriot's relative lack of range, that HE should be moved to 2B and that we should be looking at shortstops? This way we could use Baker as a utility player (which we were hoping to get Teahen for... actually, Baker's numbers are looking an awful lot like Teahen's) and perhaps have better defense up the middle.
Of course, the question would be who to shoot for as a SS...I know you will all think I'm crazy, but I'd take a flyer on Miguel Tejada for a one year deal. Because of his age, I don't think too many teams are going to be vying for him or willing to give him a big multi-year deal, and so he shouldn't cost that much. Even if he's lied about his age and is 40, the man can hit. We have some OBP guys in Ramirez, Lee, Bradley, Fukudome and Theriot. It seems like we need more help driving runs in.
Perhaps he can be next years' Orlando Hudson or Bobby Abreu (the guys nobody wanted and had an awesome year to help their teams reach the postseason). This is the type of move the Indians made when they signed players like Kevin Milwood, Scott Elarton, Joe Borowski (in 2007) and Carl Pavano (which worked since they were one year deals on guys with much to prove).
How is his defense, though? Is he a huge liability at this age? Is he any worse than Theriot?
Thanks again for all of your insight!!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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1) wOBA
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/getting_to_know_woba/
Good shit, a lot better than OPS. You can find it on FanGraphs.com
Smoltz.
wOBA is good but
nickler asked for “a player’s offensive ability,” and while wOBA is a really good short-hand answer, there’s different kinds of offense. One of the best ways to look at this is to compare two of the SSs the Cubs chose between in 2008: Ryan Theriot and Omar Infante. Theriot hit .307/.387/.359 (that’s AVG/OBP/SLG), which gets collapsed into a .746 OPS. Infante hit .293/.338/.416, or a .754 OPS. So, if all you were looking at was OPS, you’d think Infante was better. In 2008, the league average hitter hit .260/.331/.413, so Infante was right at being an average hitter, while Theriot was very below average at SLG and very above average at OBP.
In general, getting on base is considered more valuable than SLG, so, despite Theriot having a lower OPS, he ends up being more valuable with the bat than Infante. That’s not the whole story, though. Offense is more than just what is done with the bat. Theriot also stole 22 bases and was caught stealing 13 times for a 63% success rate. Speed was not a part of Infante’s game at all. So, Theriot brought an extra option to his manager, but he was so poor at stealing that he ended up hurting his value. Once you factor the extra outs Theriot made in 2008 into the equation, his value dips back below Infante’s.
But even talking like this can be short-handed, too. Theriot in 2009 is an excellent example of this. Ryan Theriot was several different kinds of hitters in 2009. Anyone who just looks at his season numbers wouldn’t pick that up as his numbers look right in line with his career averages. But Cub fans watching the season would pick this up. We can also catch it by looking at his monthly splits. We see that Theriot started the season for the first month being the kind of hitter he was last year. But Lou told him to use more of the field and try and hit for some power. So, between May and June, Ryan Theriot hit all 7 of the HRs he hit this year, completely changing the kind of hitter he was from an all OBP no SLG hitter to a low-OBP high-SLG hitter. Theriot was able to do this for a while, but once the scouting reports caught up with him, pitchers were able to dominate Theriot and he had a totally unproductive June. So, in July, Theriot started to shift back to the hitter he once was. In August, Theriot kept with this model but went into a big slump.
Now, as is probably totally obvious, we don’t have time to look at this for every player, which is why wOBA or AVG/OBP/SLG is nice for quick comparisons. But we could also go even deeper looking into the percentages of ground balls and fly balls a player hits and all sorts of other variations in offense, which is why the player cards at fangraphs.com, for example, will never have just one stat on them. We live in a wonderful age for comparing players’ abilities by statistics.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
Okaay
wOBA is the perfect judge of a players offensive ability. It is the value of each outcome that the player has and scales it to match OBP. All of the things you cited are perfectly relevant when determining how a players’ wOBA is derived, but it’s not really relevant to how good he is.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Aug 31, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not disagreeing with you about the value of wOBA.
I’m simply suggesting there are different kinds of offense that players bring to the table.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
Try hardballtimes.com
… for advanced stats and a glossary with an explanation of them, plus stats-relatated articles.
by bringbackbanks on Aug 31, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Draft Answers
Players from the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico are subject to the draft. All other players may be signed by the highest bidder. If you are talking about other “foreign” players going through the draft, I’m not sure what you mean. Guys like Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols had to go through the draft because they grew up in the United States, even if they are Dominican citizens.
As far as Alexei Ramirez goes, he was a Cuban defector and those players are always risky, because they are older, they want to get paid like major leaguers and teams don’t get much of a chance to scout them because of the embargo. They’re seen mainly in international competitions. Many teams did make an offer on him, however. The Cubs apparently did have Ramirez work out for them (I don’t think they made an offer), but the presence of Jose Contreras on the White Sox made the Sox the overwhelming favorite to sign him, since they wanted him and he wanted to play with Contreras.
As far as “Does a player who doesn’t sign have to sit out a year?” goes, your question is inelegantly stated. Of course another team can’t sweep in and draft him before a year goes by because there isn’t another draft for a year.
But here’s how that works. Teams have until August 15 to sign their draft picks, as long as they still have college eligibility. If a player has exhausted their eligibility or has forfeited it by signing with an independent league, the team has until one week before the next draft to sign the player. If a player doesn’t sign by the deadline, no one else can sign them until the next draft. Which makes sense, if you think about it—otherwise a player would just refuse to sign before the deadline and they’d become a free agent. The draft would be worthless.
If a first-round pick doesn’t sign, the team that fails to sign the player gets a first-round pick as compensation. For example, the Rangers failed to sign Matthew Purke, the 14th pick in the first round. So next season, the Rangers will get an extra first round pick at #15.
When a player fails to sign, he cannot be drafted or signed until they are eligible to be drafted again. You can be drafted after your senior season in high school (I’m leaving Bryce Harper out of this) or if you go to a four-year school, after your junior and senior year in college. Players who go to two-year or junior colleges are eligible to be drafted every year.
So Purke was a high school kid who didn’t sign. He went to TCU, which is a four-year college. He cannot be drafted again for three years. If he had gone to a junior college instead, he would be eligible to be drafted again next year. But he didn’t, so he can’t be drafted again until 2012. The Rangers cannot draft Purke UNLESS Purke gives permission for the Rangers to draft him. For example, the Cubs drafted Michael Brenly out of high school in 2005, but Michael decided he wanted to go to college instead. When Bob’s kid was eligible again in 2008, he gave permission for the Cubs to draft him again and they did. Usually they only don’t give permission when there has been an acrimonious negotiations.
That’s probably more than you wanted to know, but I think it answers your question.
One slight amendment
Josh does a great job and is very thorough. There’s one other aspect for kids that go to four year schools. Those who are “old sophomores”… those who turn 21 by a certain date (I think it is by the June draft, but couldn’t find confirmation) are also eligible to be drafted, even if they have only completed two years at a four year school.
I know this is the case because my alma mater, Florida State, has “lost” a couple players in this situation. Foremost among them is current Braves’ OF Matt Diaz.
Yeah
there are “draft-eligible sophomores” who are either old for their age or were red-shirted.
The clock also ticks on your eligibility, three years after your HS graduation, whether or not you actually attend school. A lot of BYU players (or other LDS players) are eligible to be drafted after only playing one year in college, because they go on their two-year Mormon mission. So that’s something else, too.
by Josh Timmers on Aug 31, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Right Apollo
Our 2nd round pick this year is DJ Lemahieu out of LSU and he was a soph-eligible because he turned 21 yrs during this draft season.
Answers...
1) OPS is okay, and is still more accessible. League average is usually in the .750 range. A “good” OPS can vary depending upon OBP, but invariably a player with an .850+ OPS is a good hitter. Comparatively, wOBA is better than OPS, as it better takes into account the value of OBP relative to SLG. League average wOBA is around .333. But fewer people understand it and it’s still not prolific on the internet yet.
2) I think the Cubs will go the cheap route next year. Marmol and Guzman will be at the back of the bullpen. Maybe a cheap arm will be added via free agency, but I don’t see a big acquisition there. Gregg and Heilman will be gone (Heilman may be gone today).
3) No idea on Marshall. They could trade him or keep him to compete for the #5 starter spot (if they let Harden go).
4) I see Gorzellany as a 3rd/4th/5th starter type. He’s got a low-90s fastball, a slider, and a changeup. Nothing overwhelming. If he can keep the walks down, he can be solid.
5) See Josh’s reply regarding drafts. He sums it up well.
6) No idea, but I’ll be very surprised if Fox is given a shot at 2B. There aren’t a lot of worthwhile options out there on the free agent market. So if we look outside the organization, I hope it’s via trade. But I could definitely see the team giving Baker a shot at the gig with Fontenot spot starting against tougher RHP.
Other answers
2) It will be interesting to see what they do with the ’pen. I think Jim will tinker, but we have a lot of good young arms, too.
3) I’d keep Marshall. He’s having a totally healthy season, which is very good for him. I’d like to see him get a full shot in the rotation.
6) I think it’s 1 in 100 that Fox is our starting 2B next year. I think it’s a more likely that the Cubs trade Derrek Lee and make Fox the 1B, and I don’t think that’s all that likely. I don’t see the Cubs adding Tejada because he’s another RH middle-of-the-order-bat and I doubt the leftylack worries are over. Tejada’s defense is back to strongly below average this year after a bounce-back year last year. The Cubs seem pleased with Theriot at SS, so I won’t be surprised if we’d rather go for a guy like Hudson himself, who’s a switch-hitter. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we gave Fonty-Baker a shot at it again next year. It will be very interesting to hear how Jim and Lou conduct the post-mortem on the 2009 team (although we could still win it all, of course) and where they decide to go. I think, though, that Soriano will stay down in the order and they will look for a LH bat to lead-off.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
2. In regards to the pen, what I think we will do is end up going after a late inning veteran pen arm and try to keep Grabow. I anticipate a run after a veteran middle relief/setup type as well. Whether we go after a high priced closer in trade or FA may depend on how Marmol finishes the year.
Personally, I’d let Grabow go, save the money, and add one veteran setup level arm, while using our youngsters. There’s enough pen options to fill out the middle relief/setup options.
3. Here’s my question – why? Selling high on Marshall nets you … what? A middle tier prospect? Short of it is, Marshall holds value to us, but overall, his value isn’t that high as an end of the rotation lefty or a capable lefty pen arm. I’m not sure he nets you something that justifies giving him up.
4. I think what we need to see out of Gorzelanny is an extended run, which won’t happen this year. I think he’s more a mid-end of the rotation lefty or a pen lefty. It’s a matter of consistency for him to maximize his ability.
6. I think any change to the MI will also depend on what happens in the OF. What do I mean by this? Well, with the increasing chatter that MB will be dealt this offseason, I’m starting to buy it. Where there’s smoke, there’s … well, there’s often the potential of … something. I believe Hendry will focus on a top of the order bat this offseason, and if MB goes, that opens up CF as an option to find a top of the order guy (assuming Kosuke goes back to right). The other option would be to find a top of the order MI.
The difficult thing with replacing Theriot is the question of … replace him with who? I’m not a Theriot-fanatic, and I’ve advocated swapping him out of short ASAP … but who? Ryan’s improved defensively. I’m not a fan of going after Tejada – his bat is declining and his defense has always been iffy.
The ideal offseason, for me, would be to find a top of the order CF and MI to reshape the deck a bit. Not sure I see that happening, though. If we can find a top of the order CF, I think Jeff Baker may stay at 2nd. If not, we may go after someone like Orlando Hudson.
More ironic
is that Felix Pie is another good option, so that you can move Dome to RF and to #2 or #3, and have a home-grown plus CF batting #6 or #7 with speed at the bottom of the order when you need to play small ball.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
you think
Felix Pie will be the PTBNL in the Rich Hill deal? :P
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 31, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions
maybe included in the Roberts deal
we have been waiting for
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Yesterday's game was a good example...
…of how crippled this team can look when the wind is blowing in. It seemed like every Cubs batter either struck out or hit a fly ball. Some speed on the basepaths would be a welcome addition.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
That's Von Joshua right there.
last year, we had a huge number of walks. This year, with not a huge number of changes to the lineup, we have a lot less.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 31, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
No, I don't think that's Joshua.
The team wasn’t drawing that many walks before Perry was fired.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I agree - I don't think it has anything to do with Joshua...
I think the reasons that the walks are down are:
1) DeRosa was replaced with Miles/Blanco/Baker, none of whom walk much
2) Jake Fox and Hoffpauir combined to see a lot of playing time this year, and neither walks much
3) Theriot and Ramirez had career highs in walks last year but haven’t had as high walk rates this year
Other than that, most of the regulars are walking at a rate similar to last year.
by SouthernCub on Aug 31, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Kinda makes me wonder whether...
…Lou checks the weather report before the game. Maybe next time the wind is howling in you put Sam Fuld in left field instead of Jake Fox. (And, yeah, I know Jake had a huge game the day before.)
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I don't love Bradley at the top
Love the OBP, but I’d still prefer a bit more wheels. I like Bradley enough at the top, but would hope for better. Granted, that’s more the ideal, wheels and OBP. Personally, speaking in general, I prefer a Bradley type as a 6th hitter, if at all possible, a guy that forces the opposing pitcher to work after going through the hear of the order.
I'm tending to think
that you want your speed at the bottom of the order nowadays. Play station-to-station in front of the sluggers; play small ball down the order. I think this makes a lot of sense especially because there are so few high OBP guys with high speed, too.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
I agree with this...
Get guys on base and avoid making outs in front of the big boppers. Then, get guys who can steal a base down in the order so that the lower part of the order can maybe drive in runs with singles.
by SouthernCub on Aug 31, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
on station to station baseball
general thought – my feeling is that we are going to slowly start to see a reversion to pre-1990’s baseball. Actually, signs are already in the game today, but short of it is, I think the station-to-station baseball of the past few decades will slowly lose it’s, uh, for lack of a better word, significance. Now, certainly, one can’t have a horrid OBP to bat at the top of the order.
I think we’re probably beating around some fine lines here in general, relative to the top of the order. As to the bottom of the order, if we’re speaking in general of OBP vs. speed, I’d rather take OBP over speed down there to be able to extend the lineup, but again, we’re painting fine strokes.
That combo is rare...
and of the two, I’d choose the OBP over the speed.
by SouthernCub on Aug 31, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
fair
although I don’t love the flyball rate for Bradley in the 2 hole (I thnk we can all agree that, while he could leadoff, he isn’t ideal, and it’s really a question, of, if we are comparing, 2 hole versus 6 hole (or later). I know he takes his pitches and can work a count, but I still prefer Bradley down. That said, we’re talking fine strokes here as well, as you have to have other options to be able to make such a decision, and Ryan Theriot’s offense isn’t really a great option for the top of the order (that is, I’m okay with MB at the top, but I prefer him down, but we have to have another option to be able to ponder).
btw
I should add, when I was talking about wheels, I wasn’t referring to speed directly, more of baserunning instinct/acumen. Obviously, speed would help, but I don’t love MB the baserunner, although that’s more a gut feeling than anything, as I haven’t looked at anything to make an analysis upon other than visual evidence.
I would guess Bradley is average as a baserunner...
which is why I think his tremendous OBP would be best served at leadoff.
by SouthernCub on Aug 31, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I kind of like Bradley's baserunning
But when we see Theriot and Soriano make every bad decision possible on the base paths, others start to look better.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
This is why I loved Fukudome in the leadoff spot.
Because he not only has the OBP and sees a lot of pitches, but he’s always seemed like a smart baserunner, too.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I was referring to Bradley as a leadoff guy...
I think speed at leadoff is highly overrated. I’d much rather see Bradley at leadoff than at #2 or #6.
by SouthernCub on Aug 31, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
gorzillas ERA is inflated because of his short start in colorado
it was in the 3’s before that
Theriot is not clutch, he's double clutch!
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