Time to Back off Big Z
by Crazy Uncle Lou on Aug 31, 2009 3:55 PM CDT
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I realize that as Cub fans we are all just a bit on edge most of the time but I also think we are much tougher on the guys than other teams fans and much tougher on the guys than we ever used to be. My main example is going to be the treatment of Carlos Zambrano. There has been no shortage of requests on this site to ship Carlos on the first train out of Chicago once this season ends. Is that really a good idea?? Big Z is still just 27 years old and a talent that will not be easily replaced....he is also not the only big money pitcher who has not lived up to expectations this year. Here is a list of big money pitchers and thier number so far this year;
Zambrano 131 - IP, 108 - K's, 3.91 - ERA, 7-6, 18.75 million dollars
B. Zito 162-IP, 125 - K's, 3.94 - ERA, 9-11, 18.5 million dollars
R. Oswalt 161 - IP, 119 - K's, 3.86 - ERA, 7-5, 14 million dollars
D. Lowe 164 - IP, 87 - K's, 4.38 - ERA, 13-8, 15 million dollars
A. Harang 162 - IP, 142 - K's, 4.21 - ERA, 6-14, 14 million dollars
Carlos may be the highest paid on the list but he certainly isn't the most disappointing and he is the youngest by far. I wonder if the fans of the Giants, Astros, Braves & Reds complain as much about the contracts or the production of the guys from thier teams.....I doubt it.
Carlos has certainly been frustrating at times and the last two starts have not been pretty but he is 27 years old and unless you can get back another #1 or #2 starter it is not time to give up on him yet.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I agree. The more we (mostly the media) rip on Carlos
The worse he has been getting. I think we should just let him be and he will perform just fine.
If we are comparing Z to Zito
there is a problem
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
Z is "capable" of being one of the best pitchers in the mlb
He just needs to be more consistent on the mound. Plus, he needs to work on those abs of his.
How long have we be saying this...
…far far too long, and I don’t think you will see a drastic change from Zambrano. He has been around for 7-8 years now, and he is not going to redefine his career at this point. In fact, there is a high risk that he will be a frequent DL visitor in years to come.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
That is simply incorrect.
He needs to be more consistent? If anything, he’s been extremely consistent: Look at his past three ERA’s: 3.95, 3.91,3.91. He is what he is, a solid, above average pitcher, no more, no less.
Yes, he is on any given night
but he will never be one of the elite pitchers because he is too inconsistent due to his immaturity. He will never be a true ace and that is what the Cubs were assuming he would be when they paid him the big bucks. Assuming that was a mistake. This team has guys who top out as solid #2s but what it needs is an ace. I have no problem with them keeping Zambrano, but if a good trade opportunity presents itself, go for it, he is far from untouchable.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Sep 1, 2009 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not worried about his stats
I’m more worried about the fact that he still acts like he’s a dumb rookie. He needs to grow up, be more discipline and focused, and the stats will come.
Scott Bora$ is satan.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Aug 31, 2009 4:21 PM CDT reply actions
So now Bradley and Zambrano are protect categories
God forbid a fan voice a dissappointment or displeasure for the way a “Star” player is doing on this team.
People need to get thicker skin. Do you know how many times my boss calls me knucklehead or some other name in a day. Are you telling me that these people who chose to be in the lime light and love it when thousands of fans cheer for them can’t take when hundreds jeer and boo when they mess-up or do poorly?
And then we have the “Protectors of the Defenseless Ball-Player”. The people who shout down, insult and tell fans that are horrible people and fans for voice their opinion. Only happiness and positve thoughts are allowed, otherwise you will injury these poor millionaire mental status. This is the same thought process that has led to Little League Baseball handing out tropheies to everyone. “There will be no losers in life,” so says the happiness police!
Fans will Cheer and Fans will Boo.
The sun will shine in '69
I hate when people
compare their jobs to the job of a MLB baseball player. They aren’t the same. Your boss is paying you, he expects results. Your not paying Zambrano, well if you go to games and buy merchandise you contribute, but a very, very, very low percentage.
So MLB Players need to be treated with kid gloves?
Because they are different? Sounds like what you are saying is that MLB players don’t have the testiclular fortitude and therefor they need to be wrapped in bubble wrap and tissue paper.
The sun will shine in '69
So let me get this straight...
…because we’re not directly paying players’ salaries, we have no right to express displeasure when they play poorly?
I agree with you completely gac; for reasons I don’t really understand, it seems like a lot of people feel it necessary to jump down the throats od anybody who ever finds fault with a player.
For whatever reason, Z has looked terrible lately and IMO has actually regressed since signing the big contract.
I don’t pretend to have the answers for why this is or what the Cubs should do about it but it’s completely unrealistic to not expect him to receive some flack under the circumstances. And if he’s too fragile to be able to handle it then, as much as I hate to say it, maybe he’d be better off pitching in KC or Texas where the spotlight doesn’t shine quite so brightly.
by bluekoolaide on Aug 31, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Z struggling since his new contract isn't just your opinion,
it’s a fact. His numbers bear that out.
No not at all
but I don’t see the upside on having the entire fanbase and media kick a guy when he is already down.
voice all the dissapointment you want
but back it up. Use FACTS and REASON for your argument, not “THEY SUCK” or “HE’S GARBAGE” or “MENTAL MIDGET”! And then, recognize that other people will use FACTS and REASON to dispute your argument.
Personally, I think Zambrano is a very good pitcher who has the ability to be a great one, if he can figure out what it takes. And not a single one of us — aside from, perhaps, Higgy, is in any position to say that they know what it is.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions
The only person...
…who can make Zambrano live up to this potential we have been discussing for years, is Carlos Zambrano. It certainly isn’t Larry Rothschild, or even Dave Duncan.
There does come a time where you can overuse the word “potential” and IMO, we have reached that point with Zambrano. He isn’t a 2nd or 3rd year pitcher anymore and he has been around for an extended period of time. The red flag for me is this; he has trended down for the last 2-3 years, and has shown more bouts of not being able to control his emotions vs less as he has aged. If folks think he will all of a sudden reverse this trend after 7-8 years in the league, that fine, but I think that is “pie in the sky” thinking. In fact, when you look at his injury history now, the arrow is not exactly pointing up for Zambrano.
Call me negative or whatever you wish, but there is a bundle of objective evidence to show Zambrano could be entering the downside of his career.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
He has yet to win a playoff game I believe
And you can show me his ERA all you want and I cheered his no-hitter as loud as anybody, but he has earned very little good will IMHO
I got no problem
with objective evidence.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
How about...
…this over the last 2-3 years:
ERA going up
Hits/9 innings going up
Whip going up
SO/BB trending down
Increase in DL time
To me, that’s pretty objective and doesn’t even factor in attitude issues with his fitness.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
ok.
those are absolutely of concern. I hope he can address them in the off season and improve.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
That would involve gaining the maturity
that God gave an alley cat in heat
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
one doesn't
agree or disagree with objective evidence. It’s objective. That’s the point.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Facts and Reason
We will discount any facts that prove our point, but those are important facts only the facts that I refer to in a specific time period (such as within the last two week, or last two starts, unless they don’t support what I am saying then those aren’t important either). As far as reason, only my reason makes sense and your reason is just stupid and you nothing about baseball, or society, or thinking or anything because you are an idiot.
The sun will shine in '69
dood
I haven’t said ANY of those words. Take a chill pill or something.
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not convinced...
… Z is back fully from his injury.
Date IP H R ER
Aug 30 3.1 11 4 3
Aug 25 4.1 7 8 8
INJURY
Aug 1 3.0 3 2 1
Jul 27 7.0 3 1 1
Jul 22 6.2 10 5 4
Jul 17 5.0 4 1 0
Jul 12 6.0 5 3 3
Jul 7 6.0 5 2 2
Jul 3 7.0 5 1 1
Jun 28 5.1 9 5 4
Follow me on twitter @andrewjstone.
Come on!
This is ridiculous. Stop scouting his rivals and start scouting the player. Carlos Zambrano, since signing his big deal, has been underwhelming, and there’s no other way around it. He’s pitched like a second or third starter and is far removed from his days as an ace. His numbers have been trending the wrong way as well: His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he has been missing more and more games with each season.
Nobody has “given up” on him, but I see no problem with someone who is upset with Zambrano’s recent production, or lack thereof. Simply put, he’s been a disappointment since signing that fat contract.
Zambrano will fail to reach 200 IP for the second year in a row.
And his ERA will continue to get worse.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
ALL RIGHT!
Zambrano is better than Zito!
High fives all around! Up top!
Wooo wooo!
What? He’s better than Oswalt???
I am going to strip naked, cover myself in honey and run through the streets. I am that damn happy.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
2010 is a big year
I think next year is either going to be the year Z turns it around or drops off completely. Early in his career, he was able to get by on talent without really working at it. As he’s gotten to his mid twenties, his production has definitely fallen off. Maybe getting the big contract messed with his mind and reinforced the idea that he didn’t need to work hard.
Now it’s obvious that he can no longer get by on talent. If he recognizes this and applies himself, he’ll get back to what he once was. If not, the drop off will be precipitous.
Keep in mind, that ‘hard work’ is a relative term. Major League players that don’t work hard no doubt put in more physical effort than any of us even think of doing. But the effort required to stay at the top of the game is incredible.
As far as taking it easy on Z, or any other player for that matter, I don’t agree. Part of being a player in a major sport is taking criticism. It comes with the territory. They are entertainers. As much as I like Springsteen, if he consistently gave poor performances, I’d eventually either stop going or start booing. Same goes for professional athletes.
I draw the line at getting personal, though. Boo, yell at a player for lack of hustle or mental and physical mistakes (especially mental). Do not make comments about their religious or ethnic heritage, physical appearance, family troubles, etc. Management 101 says the vast majority of people perform better when they are praised in public and criticized in private. Unfortunately, fans don’t get the opportunity to do the latter.
One way to make your guy look better is to...
compare him to mediocrity. None of those players on your list is a Cy Young candidate. And that’s why the Cubs shelled out $91.5M a couple years ago, a Cy Young candidate; not a mediocre pitcher.
Teams that desire a championship do not compare their players to the scrap heap. They compare themselves to the elite teams & players.
Z is a head-case and I’m putting that politely. He’s proven he doesn’t have the mental capacity to go along with the talent. If the Cubs can move him (and his huge salary) for something of value, they should do so.
Just win the next game...!
Didn't you get the memo?
Zambrano was NEVER an ace.
At least that’s the line you get when you suggest he isn’t performing as one.
But hey! He’s better than Aaron Harang! UP TOP!
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Hmmmm....
$91.5M for only 5 years at the time of the signing is ace money.
When a team shells out $18M+ a year avg for 5 years, nothing short of a #1 or #1A shall be expected.
Just win the next game...!
Of course it's ace money
But the apologists now say he was NEVER an ace and we shouldn’t expect that.
And God help you if you expect situps.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Then I'd like to see how they measure an ace....
by yearly salary.
I really wonder if the Cubs will seriously try to move him and at the same time save some coin.
Just win the next game...!
Other "Aces" by your definition
Derek Lowe
AJ Burnett
You need to get over the sticker shock. Zambrano is paid pretty close to what he’s worth as a pitcher. Whether or not he’s an “Ace” should have nothing to do with how he’s evaluated.
Not really.
Lowe has been better than Zambrano the last three years, and is getting paid less. Burnett has put up very similar numbers, but has done so out of the AL Central; move him to the NL and his ERA is probably around 3.4-3.5, as it was for a few years back in Florida.
Zambrano is not as good as his contract says he should be, and he’s only getting worse/ more injury prone. His IP/GS has decreased over the last three years, and is down under 6 this year. Strictly based on performance, he’s not worth 18+ million per, add in the headaches and you’ve got a guy who is very much overpaid.
Stats and salary -- he compares to Zito
Who is widely regarded to have an absolutely horrid contract.
And I realize that stats don’t measure things like leadership, stopping losing streaks, not punching catchers, etc… but there IS a such thing as an Ace in baseball.
He ain’t it.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
It's actually pretty much a wash between Z and Lowe the last 3 years
Lowe’s ERA+ for 2007-2009 is 118, 131, and 96
Z’s is 118, 114, and 113
Zambrano is 8 years younger. If Lowe was Zambrano’s age and putting up those numbers, he’d have a similar deal.
Zambrano is not as good as his contract says he should be
What does this even mean? He’s being paid similarly to similar pitchers. Despite what some around here might insist, I guarantee you the word “Ace” isn’t anywhere in his contract.
and he’s only getting worse/ more injury prone.
You can say this about any player over 28 years old. Zambrano’s been one of the healthiest pitchers in all of baseball over his career.
Lowe's making 15 a year, Zambrano 18+.
Two of Lowe’s years have been as good or better than Z’s best. He’s been better, and done so at a higher age without the headaches.
What exactly is your point? He’s not worth 18 per year. I don’t care what other guys are making. Lilly has been better for far less, and so have plenty of others. Fangraphs computes what the going rate for pitcher production is and Z has come up significantly short the last couple of years. He’s more of a 13-14 million dollar a year guy, and a year from now probably less.
My point is that the money issue is a silly thing to get hung up on
Sure, he’s getting a lot of money, but he’s still producing similar to recent free agents near his level.
“Zambrano is very good but slightly overpriced” just seems like a really odd reason to advocate getting rid of someone.
I don’t care what other guys are making.
Well unfortunately for us free agents do care what other guys are making.
Lilly has been better for far less
If Lily were a free agent this off-season, he’d have gotten 4 years, $60M. His contract is an amazing value, and the suggestion that the Cubs should just go out and get more pitchers that produce at his level for his price is laughable.
It's not a silly thing to get hung up on
when it prevents the team from acquiring other players due to this bad signing.
The biggest example on the North side of this issue, normally “plays” LF.
Just win the next game...!
Soriano's contract is an entirely different kind of problem
…in that it is actually a problem.
Z we are at worst slightly overpaying for. However he’s still providing positive value at a position where we can still add, despite his presence (having Z isn’t preventing us from getting other good starting pitchers).
Soriano we are heavily overpaying for. This season he’s provided negative value, and is blocking a position rich with talent, preventing us from improving the team.
They're the same problem
Too much money for nearly not enough results.
The only things better in Z’s case from a Cubs’ payroll perspective is he’s younger and is owed less money.
Just win the next game...!
Seriously.
The same problem.
Alfonso Soriano was paid $18M this year and had a $WAR of negative $2.2 million dollars.
That means for him to have been worth it, he would have had to pay the Cubs $2M to play here.
Zambrano meanwhile, was slightly overpaid, making $17M for $11M worth of production so far (and he’s bound to gain a million or two on his $WAR by the end of the year if he can finish even moderately strong).
These are the same problem? Really? You don’t see any difference at all here?
How are you coming up with your conclusions?
The Cubs are more than just slightly overpaying for a barely sub-4 ERA pitcher. He hasn’t been within sniffing distance of his 18 million dollar per year salary, per Fangraphs.
Lowe and Burnett
Lowe’s numbers are better and he’s paid less. Burnett’s numbers are similar though he’s in the AL. Both guys IIRC had injury issues but not because of ignoring their own good.
Look, I love Z as much as any pitcher the Cubs have had since Maddog, the Red Baron and Mr. Bruce Sutter. However, he has shown time and time again he cannot control his own situation.
I’ll step out on a limb and say that if the Cubs can get some guy(s) decent in return, maybe save some coin, I’d like to see them move Z.
Just win the next game...!
Lowe's numbers are basically the same and he's 8 years older
The $3M difference in salary really isn’t that significant. My point is simply that $18M doesn’t get you what it used to on the starting pitching market.
I’ll step out on a limb and say that if the Cubs can get some guy(s) decent in return, maybe save some coin, I’d like to see them move Z.
I’ve never understood how people can say “Such and such is overpriced. Let’s trade him and get something useful back.”
To get rid of him you’d have one of two choices: eat a lot of money and get something useful, or don’t eat much money and get little back.
Look at the Peavy deal as a model – the Padres really didn’t get anything back for Peavy that I’d take for Zambrano. And Peavy is a higher-value, lower-cost pitcher.
The Cubs won't know his trade value until
it’s considered.
On the Peavy case, the jury is still out. 2 of the 4 guys the Pads got are so young, we won’t know for a couple more years. There’s also the variable of Peavy’s health. He may not even pitch this year now. The ChiSox are dropping like a stone. It may not be worth it. So to say the value of the deal is “this” or “that” is premature.
Just win the next game...!
Oh no
A team should have no expectation. Career Norms are the only important thing, reference Bradley. Just because a team is paying a player like an ace or a thumper or anything else, that doesn’t matter. His career norms tells you what he his and the team should pay him as such.
The sun will shine in '69
His career norms tells you what he his and the team should pay him as such.
What else should they do? That you think this would be a bad thing to do says everything about you I could ever hope to.
it's as if they somehow
think that the players are fooling them. “He’s no good, it doesn’t matter what the numbers say, there’s no way he deserves that kind of money.”
"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2009 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Not trying to make him look better
The point of this wasn’t to make Big Z look better or to say he was an ace……the point was that other teams pay big money for pitchers who have performed to the level of or below what Zambrano has and I don’t think that those teams fans are going nuts wanting guys traded or put on waivers.
by Crazy Uncle Lou on Sep 1, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Giants fans would throw Zito over the side in a second
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
GIants' management would love to unload him and his bloated contract, too
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Sep 1, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't care what
any other team does, only the teams the Cubs are trying to emulate.
Just because other teams are paying ridiculous amounts of money for mediocre pitchers, doesn’t mean the Cubs have to follow suit. That thinking will sure to get the Cubs well into the 2nd century of futility.
Just win the next game...!
I know Cardinal fans who were ready to dump Carpenter after getting hurt again last year
just sayin it happens elswhere
But after a serious injury
not from ignoring his own reasonable physical maintenance. There’s a difference, a huge difference.
Just win the next game...!
we blame Harang's poor production on Dusty
last season Harang started a game on Friday, pitched in Relief on sunday throwing over 60 pitches, and started a game on Thursday, he wasn’t the same after that.
This season he started out well until Dusty struck again. In may Harang started a game with a rain delay in the middle of the top half of the 5th with 2 outs, the delay lasted almost 2 hours, and Dusty sent him back out there to get the last out, so he could get the win. Harang had a bad run after that. We want to ship Dusty out of town. Harang had an appendectomy and is out for the rest of the year, and he was on an upward trend, so he may have lowered his ERA below 4, if he had the last 6 weeks.
Bloop
"We want to ship Dusty out of town".
We could have told you guys that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
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