Aramis Ramirez Strange Home/Road Splits

by nji232 on Aug 31, 2009 8:55 PM CDT Comment 18 comments

As the Cubs get ready to go out on the road this week I want to examine one of the stranger statistical trends I've ever seen. See three years ago Aramis Ramirez forgot how to hit on the road. Looking at his career numbers there isn't much difference. Aramis has a career home OPS of .863 and an .831 road OPS. Not really that big a difference when it covers a 1400 game sample.

Every season of Aramis' career before 2007 Aramis either had better numbers on the road each season, with the exception of 2004 where he had a .900+ OPS both at home and the road.

Starting in 2007 though Aramis stopped being as good a hitter on the road. It doesn't mean he was Aaron Miles like bad, or even replacement level bad, just not as good. In 2007 he had a 1.046 OPS at home. It fell a whopping .266 to .780 on the road. You can look at that and call it a one season wonder, but then it happened again in 2008. The OPS went from 1.040 at home to .752 on the road. It's happening in 2009 again too. His 1.066 OPS at home is brilliant, but his .812 just isn't quite as good. What the heck is going on here?
The first thing that stuck out to me was the difference in BABIP, his home BABIP in each year are .350, .340, and .414. On the road it drops to .279, .269, and .276. That could certainly be one cause, but over the course of the season he only has about a six or seven hit difference either way. That doesn't explain such a large difference.

Perhaps Wrigley is just a really hitter friendly park and Aramis takes crazy advantage of that. The park factors (100 being neutral, anything over being batter friendly, lower means pitcher friendly) show that Wrigley is around 105. That ranks near the top for friendly home parks for hitters, so there could be something to that. Certainly that helps explain the collective team offensive woes on the road, but why is one player have such a disparity, and why is that disparity something that suddenly started in 2007? The park factors didn't drastically change in 2007, and there weren't any major structural changes that would change the wind (New Yankee Stadium, US Cellular removing rows).

The 2005-6 bleacher reconstruction couldn't possibly be the reason. The wall dimensions remained the same across the whole field, and they added rows to the bleachers, but did that really make a difference to hitters or just ballhawks on the street.

The arrival of Lou Pinella and a new hitting coach Gerald Perry is biggest change between 2006 and 2007 that I can think of. It was also the time of his new contract, and when his hustle was under scrutiny from Cubs fans. My non-statistical side would like to say that Ramirez is hustling harder in front of the home fans and trying harder. The statistical side of me says that makes no sense at all. If hitting a baseball was as simple as trying harder everybody would be great at it.

Something strange is going on here, I can't explain it. Can anybody else?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Appears to just be a statistical oddity,

and i doubt anyone here can give a concrete explanation as to what is going on. That being said, you may be on to something with his luck on balls in play, as he still has displayed pretty good power on the road, albeit less than he has at home, making his batting average his big issue on the road. Unless you can find his batted ball profile for home/road splits, it’s going to be tough to see how much of a role luck has played here.

by dakoose on Aug 31, 2009 9:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sweet post, Mizzou, recommended.

That BAbip difference is so HUGE it just weirds me out. That’s a hundred points in one example! WTF. I got no idea here.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Aug 31, 2009 9:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Here

After 2006 is when he signed his big contract. Psychologically, A-Ram then began to think of Chicago as more of a home since his future there is now more secure.

by Poloplaya14 on Aug 31, 2009 10:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow, I fail. Anyway, here's my theory.

After 2006 is when he signed his big contract. Psychologically, A-Ram then began to think of Chicago as more of a home since his future there is now quite secure. As a result, he began to settle in more in Chicago, resulting in increased production there and decreased production on the road, since he’s not as comfortable. Before ’07, there was no difference between Chicago and any other city to him, so his production was the same.

by Poloplaya14 on Aug 31, 2009 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You, sir or ma'am are one of the most...

perceptive and knowledgeable baseball fans on this site (or in existence, even.) I base this assertion on this single piece of evidence:

If hitting a baseball was as simple as trying harder everybody would be great at it.

Too many in this crazy, mixed up world, see sports as Homeric sags. They ain’t. They simply test the skills of of one bunch of genetic Lotto winners against another. I happen to have bizarrely strong emotional ties to the particular bunch of GLW known as the Cubs, but at least I realize that’s all they are. Apparently, you do too.

Joe, you coulda made us proud!

by copingwiththecubs on Aug 31, 2009 10:10 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

+1000

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Sep 1, 2009 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

indeed

that is an excellent point.

"I’m not going to allow Al Yellon to flush this thing down the crapper without a fight." (BLOU)
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

rec'd

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Sep 1, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Day games

Except for 2008, he has also hit better in day games. Checked 2004 – 2009, but the only season I could find double splits for, splitting Home and Away by Day vs Night, was 2009. I don’t know; maybe this is saying the same thing.

by AboutTheCubs on Aug 31, 2009 11:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind that he played for Pittsburgh before coming here

Where there is little, if any, fan support.

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Sep 1, 2009 7:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Could it be the clubhouse food?

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by dat cubfan daver on Sep 1, 2009 2:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As a hitter...

…you tend to like certain backgrounds better than others, and I’ll bet Aramis simply sees the ball better at Wrigley.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 1, 2009 2:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If anything, I think the bleacher expansion helped hitters, though I doubt it's statistically significant

My theory is on days when the wind is blowing in, the bleacher expansion tends to block more of that wind, at least at the lower levels. Therefore, a line drive blast has more of a chance of being a home run, especially in the gaps, where the bleachers are a lot higher.

I base this purely on my own observations from the street and from inside, mostly during batting practice, as well as a few things Pat & Ron have mentioned over the last few years.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Sep 1, 2009 2:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs