Don't ride Wells too hard
So last night was another gem by our pleasant surprise Randy Wells. I'd hate to think about where our team would be without him this year. His stats are truly impressive for a rookie:
16 GS 2.73 ERA 160 ERA+ 1.143 WHIP 2.0 BB/9
And I agree with Al, that he should be the front runner for ROY. But I'd sure like to caution against pushing a young pitcher too soon. I know we need him for our playoff push this year but if we keep pushing him this hard for the rest of the year I think we may be risking something we aren't thinking about right now.
Wells has pitched 102 innings for the Cubs this year. Add to that the 26 innings he already pitched in the minors before being called up and you have 128 innings. If he stays in the rotation for the rest of the year, he will get 11 more starts. So far in his 16 starts, he has averaged 6.38 innings per start. If he continues that trend for the rest of the year, he will log another 70 innings this year. That will be almost 200 innings for a pitcher in his first full year in the big leagues.
The big leagues have been littered with stories on how young pitchers were pushed too hard, too early and then the next couple of years battling devastating injuries. Tom Verducci wrote something about this before:
Why can't they throw 200 innings? Simply put, they're not conditioned for it yet. It's like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it.
Here are the innings pitched for Wells leading up to this year:
2005 108
2006 131
2007 95
2008 118 123.1(edited)
2009 (potentially 198 innings)
I know we need the guy this year, but I'd caution against potentially ruining or sidetracking his career for our short term goals.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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he's gotten his arm up to 131 before
and threw 120+ last year (you’re not including 4 major league innings), so I think he can reasonably get up to 160-170 or so without fear of overuse, unfortunately that would mean he’d need to be skipped a time or two and to do that we’d need to have other healthy pitchers
by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 4, 2009 11:42 AM CDT reply actions
You're right, I missed the 5 innings from last year,
but 123 to 198 is a huge jump still.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I think
That him getting 170 innings would be good. He’ll need it to qualify for the ERA leaders, and that’s a jump of about 40 from his highest mark in 06.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 4, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
If we limit him to 170 or lower than I think that is reasonable
But I’m really worried since he has been our most consistent starter, that Lou will continue to go back to the…ugh have to say it…Well(s).
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
One thing that we haven't taken into account
is that he is 27 years old…. Does anyone have any statistics of this being a problem with someone being as old as Randy? I would think this would be more of a problem when you are early 20s. Most pitchers are throwing that many innings by the time they hit 27.
Good point
About him being 27.
"They found a delivery in my flaw." - Dan Quisenberry
I don't see the correlation about the age thing.
My point is stress points with the delivery and how you get up to 200 innings pitched. How does being older help that jump in innings pitched? In fact, my intuition tells me that being older would be worse for a pitcher since your muscles and bones take even longer to heal the older you get.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
No. It has to do with developing the muscles in relationship to time pitched. Randy Wells
is no spring chicken. He is 27 years old and has had ample time to develop the muscles in his arm and shoulder and should be able to handle the increased work load. He doesn’t need to be babied. He has a smooth easy motion that doesn’t put an inordinate amout of strain on his arm and shoulder. 5 years is a sufficient enough time to build the stamina to pitch 200 innings, especially a guy who throws with the type of motion that Wells. I think you are overreacting a bit. He’s at the peak of his body development and does not run the risk of overuse injuries like Prior experienced.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Aug 5, 2009 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions
I think thats my point
5 years in order to “build” the stamina to pitch 200 innings. He’s going from 123 to potentially 200. That’s a big jump, I don’t care how old you are. We disagree, that’s fine. I just don’t want the team to look at things so short sided.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
well we have the pitching
to let wells skip a start. once lilly cmes off of the DL Gorzelanny will go to the bullpen. therefore, later in the year Gorzelanny can get a spot start for wells. and so could marshall or maybe another minor leaguer after september call-ups. i dont think he should pitch more than 160 innings. we dont want another mark prior
Prior
I see why you urge caution, but Mark Prior is Mark Prior, not Randy Wells. Not every pitcher is the same, nor does workload necessarily translate to Prior’s injuries.
"They found a delivery in my flaw." - Dan Quisenberry
It's true that Wells is no Prior...
but I’m sure that his workload did not help all his future injuries.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Well Prior's injuries were a combination of 3 things in my opinion.
1. Genetics
2. Mechanics
3. “Freak Accidents”
Being a collegiate pitcher means that he has been well conditioned and that he could make the jump to the majors somewhat quickly.
There’s a reason High School pitchers spend quite a bit of time in the minors, because their arms can’t take the high increase in workload that the MLB puts on it. To quote Mike Singletary, “Can’t do it.”
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
Genetics?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Some people are born with structural problems or weaknesses
that will eventually manifest themselves in injuries.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 7, 2009 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions
How do we know that is the case with Prior specifically.
Or is that just Cub Style speculating?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Just hang on through August, Randy
Maybe in September we’ll have a health rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, and then Gorzelanny, Marshall, or Atkins could make a couple of starts to cut down on Wells’ innings.
You make a good point. Thanks for checking the past innings pitched.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
I wouldn't worry
Hasn’t Lou done a 6-man rotation like system in September past?
I can see him and Gorzelanny both getting starts once Lilly is back.
However this is a great point and we’ve seen in the past rookie pitchers being shut down (such as Papelbon).
With him being the #5 starter...
i can see lou (hopefully) skipping him a few times in probably sept (more days off) so the innings don’t pile up to high. That being said i we make the playoffs i’m not sure he’ll be in the rotation being he is the 5th starter (probably should be but Harden, Z, Demp, and Lilly will be for sure top 4). We’ll see how it plays out but for not just need him to keep winning games.
Greg Jennings.. Future All Pro
The Cubs are going to need to get
A fully healthy rotation before worrying about cutting Wells’ innings down. Once that happens, Gorzy could make a few starts over Wells, or Atkins, depending on how either one looks the rest of the season.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 4, 2009 12:18 PM CDT reply actions
Isn't going to happen
1. Lou doesn’t give a rats ass about next year. He is paid to win today.
2. Hendry won’t mandate that Wells’ innings are kept down.
3. Lilly, Harden, Z, and Dempster injuries will keep him out there every 5th day
4. He’s too consistent to skip a turn in the rotation.
This is good in theory, but with the pressure to win this year it isn’t going ot happen. One thing working for Wells is his upbringing as a catcher—he’s used to throwing more than any other player. So maybe he could be a different case for arm issues.
Actually, the GM might mandate giving him a break.
Len & Bob hinted that he might get one on last night’s telecast.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'd be surprised
the injury nexus points to 30 IP versus PY. That would mean to cut him off around 160-170 innings. I don’t see him skipping half of his remaning starts or Lou allowing that to happen.
If you are talking about skipping 1 turn, then I’d buy it. I was speaking to shutting him down for half of his remaning starts.
Imagine the uproar Dusty would have got to shut down Prior and Wood in ‘03. Given how well they threw and how well Wells has thrown, I just can’t see any other way. It’s part of the poison of being a contender on a yearly basis.
03 vs 09
I think many people remember the overuse of Prior and Wood in 03 and also realize they have never been the same. I think people today would be much more understanding of resting a rookie/someone early in their career after seeing the Prior trainwreck.
Hendry and Lou
don’t care today about 2010. If Wells conintues to pitch as the staff ace, then he will be given the ball. It has nothing to do about remembering Prior and Wood, but about winning games this season and winning the division. Then winning 3 series in a row.
In theory, I’d agree with you, but reality will dictate otherwise.
Would you shut down Wells for his last 6 starts of this season when we will either be slightly ahead of or behind STL? I wouldn’t.
Wells as a catcher
Good point. Wells was drafted as a catcher in 2002 and played that position until the Cubs converted him to pitching in 2004, the season that he turned 22 (he was an awful hitter, career avg of .133 in the minors). That history could have a couple implications:
1. He wasn’t overworked during his late teens and early 20s. He didn’t have to throw 130 pitches twice a week for the greater glory of his college baseball program. On top of that, he wasn’t piling up innings in the minors either. In past years, there was a lot of speculation that if a pitcher survived his late teens and early 20s without a major arm injury, it greatly reduced the risk that he would develop arm problems as he entered his prime. There’s probably a lot more data on that subject now – I’d be interested to hear what research has been done in the last five or six years and how it can be applied to Wells.
2. Wells will turn 27 this month so he’s older than the average rookie/prospect. Looking at his age, without taking the positional switch into account, you could argue that he would have reached the big leagues sooner if he had any potential beyond being a marginal 5th starter type. But, because he only began pitching at age 21, he’s been on a different developmental track than most other pitching prospects. In other words, it gives me some hope that Wells could be a “late bloomer”, that he actually could be a significant contributor for years to come, rather than just a surplus arm that lucked into a few good months. Wells certainly looks quite capable at the ML level, as he’s continued to be effective after his first month or so, after opposing teams have had a look at him as well as a chance to put together a scouting report.
"I'd rather play baseball than eat." - Andy Pafko
by LaddieRenfroe on Aug 4, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Randy Wells = Kevin Tapani
Similar career progression to this age.
If Wells could have a career a good as Tapani’s, we’d all be happy.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's a decent, if optimistic, comparison
They do have similar approaches, right-handers that rely on an easy delivery without trying to blow people away, keeping their walks down.
From a developmental standpoint, Tapani played, and presumably pitched, four years of college ball and then reached the majors faster than Wells did. He threw more innings in the minors than Wells did at ages 22-25, although part of that is due to the fact that minor league starters were treated differently 15 years earlier. Unlike Wells, Tapani was able to establish himself with Twins’ teams that had much weaker starting pitching than the current Cubs do.
Before his back gave out, Tapani always struck me as the consummate 4th starter – a guy who’ll throw a lot of innings and be reliably average. I’ll be very happy if Wells can fill that role for the Cubs over the next few years.
Two other things…
1. Looking at Tapani’s history, I noticed that he was originally drafted by the Cubs during the Dallas Green era, though he didn’t sign. Just another example of how good the Cubs’ scouting was during the early to mid 80s.
2. Who gets the credit for converting Wells to the mound? There’s so much criticism of the Cubs’ recent player development that it’s only fair to credit them when they get something right. They took a 38th round draft pick and, rather than just releasing him when he failed to hit, gave him a chance to contribute in a completely different role and were patient about doing so.
"I'd rather play baseball than eat." - Andy Pafko
by LaddieRenfroe on Aug 4, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Tapani
was a top prospect though who was a major piece of the Frank Viola trade. (OK, David West was the big name at the time.) Wells was so lowly regarded even last season that we left him unprotected in the Rule V draft, the Blue Jays took him and then sent him back to us after one inning.
That’s not to say that Wells couldn’t end up being pretty good. It’s clear that something happened to Wells last year—it looks like he no longer feared the batters making contact and that led to him working faster and throwing more strikes. I was pretty impressed with seeing him in person last May, but I discounted it a bit because no one else was talking about him. Sometimes guys get reps and the scouts don’t see it when a player improves.
But it’s very rare for a guy to be an unheralded (and unranked by everyone) prospect to come out of nowhere and have a career as successful as Kevin Tapani. I can’t think of it ever happening. More likely, an unheralded guy comes up and is brilliant for a year or two until eventually the league catches up with his talent.
Peter Pascarelli compared Wells to Marty Bystrom yesterday. That’s not an insult, Bystrom was pretty good for a season and a half. Honestly, Wells is a better pitcher than Bystrom, but I am concerned with Wells K totals, and while he does keep the ball on the ground more than average, I don’t think he’s enough of a groundball pitcher to live with those strikeout totals. He should have a career that’s better than Bystrom but far short of Tapani. But if someone offers us something good for him in the off-season, we need to take it.
As far as who made Wells a pitcher, I know the story is that he volunteered to pitch in a blowout in 2004 and two days later, the Cubs told him he was either going to be a pitcher or he was going to be released. Who made the decision, I don’t know, but such things would ultimately fall under the aegis of Oneri Fleita. Whether or not Fleita made the call, he would have had to approve the decision, so let’s give him the credit.
I think it's a bit premature to discuss trading him.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Aug 5, 2009 7:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Nice
well thought out post. Good job. If his pace of innings pitched continues, the percentage jump in innings from ’08 to ’09 is real high. I would feel better if in his past seasons he made a big jump in innings pitched. But no more than maybe 23% in one year.
Trade Doug Deeds to Washington.
One thing to consider
Wells has an easy delivery. While workload should be considered, his delivery is much less straining than say someone like Edinson Volquez.
The last time I heard about an "easy delivery"
it was describing Mark Prior
No, Prior didn't have an "easy delivery"...
… it was described as “perfect mechanics”, which was patently false.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
didn't notice it until
I saw your picture of Marmol, but the arm loading action of Marmol is eerily similar to Prior’s.
how so?
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
how far back and up his elbow is
that is a shoulder problem waiting to happen
It was for Prior
but Marmol could not be more different in terms of physique.
Oh well, it’s all a crap shoot as throwing a baseball is an unnatural motion. Softball pitchers have the advantages there.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
softball is definitely easier-- :-D
Husker Bob as he is known on John Sickels site, an astute pithcing coach and pretty much the best mechanical expert I’ve read in the last 5 years, can unequivocally predict guys who are in-line for arm injuries and pinpoint the reason why. He said Prior was a disaster mechanically when most bought into the wisdom that Prior had the best mechanics ever. He said Prior would hurt his shoulder and listed out the mechanical reaosn why. One of those reasons was how he loaded his arm action getting his elbow up high and behind his body early in the throwing motion. That picture of Marmol reminds me of this discussion and how bad mechanically Carol is right now.
It’s is a crap shoot and hopefully Carlos stays injury free for the next 5-10 years. When he’s on, it’s a thing of beauty.
Easy delivery, perfect mechanics ... six of one, half dozen of the other
the implication is the same.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Wells has very sound mechanics.
First of all, there is no such thing as perfect mechanics. If anyone ever says that, they either don’t know what they’re taking about or they’re exaggerating.
Wells doesn’t really have any hitches in his mechanics. His mechanics are very similar to Roger Clemens, who has extremely good mechanics.
Now I think I know what you mean by easy delivery. If it is that his delivery isn’t very fast with a lot of things going on? Because speed of your delivery mainly effects your control and velocity unless you have developed bad habits to begin with. Just because you have a fast delivery doesn’t mean you’ll develop bad mechanics. Kerry Wood would be an example of someone who “rushed” his delivery, but Tim Lincecum would be someone who has a fairly quick delivery with lots of moving parts but he has very sound mechanics as well.
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
good mechanics ... bad mechanics
It’s all relative IMO. There is no one right way to pitch, it all depends on your own physique. Clemens’s good mechanics might be a disaster for someone else. Tim Lincecum’s mechanics are quite peculiar for him, I doubt too many other pitchers could pitch like he does. Another Giant pitcher, Juan Marichal had quite unusual mechanics, yet his high leg kick worked for him for a number of years; however, those mechanics caused back problems and forced him to change his delivery later in his career.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
haven't seen another Jim Palmer
either, but it worked incredibly well for him. Good point.
nor another Bob Gibson
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Wells...
…reminds me a lot of John Leiber when he was going well. Their sliders are very very similar and their fastballs kept the hitters honest.
If Wells has any issues, I’ll bet it will be elbow related with all the sliders he throws.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Last night was the first time Lou left him too long
usually he pulls him to early. I am not really that concerned about it. He has good mechanics and he is hardly a kid.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
+1
I’d love to see most of our pitchers start that “extra” inning when they’re rolling… as opposed to getting yanked prematurely in favor of our untrusty pen.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
We put too much stress on innings thrown and pitches thrown.
It really ought to be batters faced at a macro level (because therefore pitchers like wells who limit walks and hits are recognized to have faced fewer batters in an identical number of innings to a pitcher who gives up more baserunners).
And pitch counts are useful but I’m willing to bet that 130 pitches for a Roy Halladay type is about a stressful on the arm as say 100 pitches for an AJ Burnett type. All pitchers are not created equal and we should recognize that.
good post
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Think about innings this way then
They get the arm warm and throw 10-25 pitches an inning, then sit down and cool off for 10-15 minutes. The get back up and get that arm back in motion. They are not just throwing continuously. That is why the innings thing mean more to me.
Yes 100 pitches in 5 innings would be more stressful than say 100 pitches in 8 innings. But I’m sure if you total it at the end of the year, it wouldn’t be that great of difference.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Interesting point about innings not pitches
OTOH, you need to factor in the number of pressure pitches a pitcher is required to make. An 80 pitch outing could be more stressful than a 110 pitch outing. It all depends on how many pitches a pitcher had to make in pressure situations.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 7, 2009 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I think you just have to err on caution side.
especially since throwing a ball overhand is such an unnatural motion to begin with.
As for the current subject, I am sure since this is evolving within baseball that there will be a way to quantify both pitch/innnings and total innings pitched. Point taken.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Great post
I pondered this question earlier this morning…great facts and background. Thank you.
My bet is he skips a start or two the rest of the way, but will still a very large jump in innings due to the pressure of trying to win this year.
"Cub fans like to think of things in catastrophic terms." - Crane Kenney
I'll take that bet
We can debate about whether his inning should be limited by skipping a start or two, but I’m almost positive Lou won’t do it, unless we somehow lock up the division early.
This team is built to win now
I think it is totally irresponsible for someone
to disregard a players health in order for a shot to win now. We are talking about a player’s career here.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I don't have any stats to back this up, but if you look at Prior/Wood in their early years,
they were walking a lot more people (seemed to throw over 120 pitches a game), where it seems like Wells only needs 90+ pitches to get around 7 innings. i would think that a lower ammount of pitches would mean less stress, less chance of an injury, but once again, i don’t have stats on his pitch counts….anyone out there got any?
Bob Brenly on Leo Nunez "Dan Uggla just saved Nunez’ life because Koyie would break him into a million pieces"
ok, just calculated, looks like he averages 94.25 pitches a game.
he has a high of 111, and has pitched over 100 on 3 out 16 starts…doesn’t seem too taxing.
Bob Brenly on Leo Nunez "Dan Uggla just saved Nunez’ life because Koyie would break him into a million pieces"
I have an
friend who knows Randy. He said they are definitely cognizant of hi number of innings, but don’t have any plans to limit them yet. He said that he had pitched more innings this year than he ever has before, but his arm feels great.
Just tought I’d pass it along.
DEJESUS!!!
Thanks for the info, I'm reassured that they are at least thinking about the issue.
His arm feels good right now, but the problems usually occur the next year after the damage is already done.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Can I meet your friend?
Maybe he can bring Randy too!
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
I've been waiting for
Shanghai to post of TWSS to this thread
Gorzo will help
We saw that tonight. And, he can easily be skipped once Lilly comes back, and the roster’s are expanded.
Yeah, I say we go to a modified 6-man rotation if Gorzelanny can keep it up.
Harden and Wells could alternate being skipped. Harden to avoid injury trouble and Wells to avoid burning him out.
I'd rather keep Marshall in the pen.
Right now we’re looking at having 6 quality starters, assuming Lilly comes back full strength. I don’t see the need for another one.
No need, leave him in the pen where he has been effective
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Wells is 27
I think the arm problems tend to occur with 22-25 year olds. I don’t feel like digging for the stats tonight but I think it is body development and arm maturity, I think Wells can handle 190 this year with no problems down the road. I see Wells kinda like a Maddux type (style wise, not potential yet) he doesn’t try to over throw which tends to bring on problems. Only time will tell though.
by Cubsfan Waveland on Aug 4, 2009 9:58 PM CDT reply actions
"conditioning"
Sadly pitchers are babied these days from little league all the way to the major leagues. Strict pitch counts prevent them from building up their strength making them more prone to injury not less. There is no reason why most pitchers cannot be conditioned to pitch more innings than they do. Expecting a young healthy kid like Wells to be able to throw 200 innings is not expecting too much.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
Is any jump in innings pitched okay with you then?
How about 100 innings to 200? 75 innings to 200? Where do you draw the line?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Are you familar with how strength training works??????
I am not advocating any “jumps” in innings pitched, but I am advocating that pitchers throw more when they are younger to build up their arm strength so when they get to the bigs they are ready throw 200 innings. Runners don’t jump from running a mile to running a marathon, you do it by runnjing a lot and slowly over time stretching yourself out. there is no reason why most pitchers cannot do the same thing.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 5, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
ummm What do you think this post is about??????
Expecting a young healthy kid like Wells to be able to throw 200 innings is not expecting too much.
Maybe I just saw that last line and thought you were advocating Wells should be able to pitch 200 innings this year.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Read the whole post, not just the last line
I advocate letting pitchers pitch more to build up strength, and not baby them so much. If that is done, there is no reason a young guy like Wells couldn’t pitch 200 innings.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Sorry but the post is about the jump in innings, so you see where I went with that.
So we both agree, I am not against a 27 year throwing 200 innings if he was stretched out to get to that point.
So my question to you is, what is the amount of innings do you think Wells should be allowed to get to?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Hard to speculate
Everyone is different, but they need to keep a close eye on him once he gets up past 150 based on his minor league history. Next year 200 should be the goal.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 7, 2009 8:07 AM CDT up reply actions
150 is nice and conservative.
I agree if he continues to pitch well and stay in the rotation, 200 would be the goal for 2010.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Jump to 200
I’d be cautious about stretching a pitcher from 100 IP to 200 IP in a season, especially a young pitcher.
But I do agree with lookingdeadred that there’s no reason why young pitchers can’t be conditioned to throw more innings earlier in their careers, which is what Nolan Ryan is working on right now with the Rangers.
Just for laughs, check Wilbur Wood’s statistics. They stretched him from 121 innings in 1970 to 334 in 1971. That has to be the biggest jump in innings ever. Of course, he was a knuckleballer and never had arm trouble. He jumped to 377 innings in 1972, then fell back to “just” 359 innings in 1973, a year in which he once started both games of a double-header. I wouldn’t advocate that for Wells.
"They found a delivery in my flaw." - Dan Quisenberry
What I would not give to have Nolan Ryan as a member of the cubs Organization.
Have Nolan in charge of all the pitching in the Cubs organization from the DSL Cubs, through Boise all the way up the Big League Cubs.
Obviously that would never happen and is just a pipe dream as he has a relationship with the Rangers and has a better and more influential position with the Rangers. And right now with the Rangers playing better he is getting a lot of credit, and to be fair, sometimes when they are big hall of famer’s like Ryan they do get too much credit. It is only natural from us fans and the media to sing their high praises regardless of how much or how little they have really helped. However I think everyone has to applaud Ryan for what he is doing with pitchers and implementing his beliefs throughout the entire organization.
by MandMexpress12 on Aug 5, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
I have nothing against a younger pitcher throwing 200 innings if built upon. My point is the jump in over 70 innings from last year. (potentially)
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
yeah.
the problem is that pitchers are stretched out too late. they ought to be throwing a 200-inning workload a lot younger. the key is that you don’t add too many innings per year.
never gonna happen
because the minor leagues are seet up to develop as many pitchers as possible. So, the magic 100 pitch mark is in play at all times. Some teams use combo starters so they can all get innings and develop their stuff. The concern is not building them for large workloads, but building as many as possible to reach the major leagues.
It’s just a philosophy thing.
A philosphy that Nolan Ryan is changing.
by MandMexpress12 on Aug 5, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
what is his philosophy?
I heard him get on Millwood about finishing what he starts, but what is this change you are referring to? Do you have an article you could link? I’d love to read his thoughts.
Gorzelanny is the key.
I think he’ll end up spot starting for both Harden and Wells at times. Harden’s day games are at risk and Wells’ overall starts are at risk.
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
I hope that start is just the start of things for Gorzo.
And then Lou uses all his possible starters wisely, when we get them all healthy.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton

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