Thoughts on the Central Division for the final third of the season.
Captain Obvious holds that: Cubs and Cards are tied where both are 9 games over .500 (Cubs have 35% of the season remaining while the Cards have 33% of the season left.) These are the contenders. Both teams are 1.5 games behind the wild card leader (Colorado the Cubs next opponent where they are 12 games over .500), where San Francisco sits in between the Cards and Cubs.
The pretenders are of course Houston and Milwaukee, both possessive of an attitude of being a spoiler but their teams are so structurally unsound from a pitching basis that they will make a lot of noise going forward but my guess is that they will fall further below the .500 line. Remember the perception that Reed Johnson expressed on his blog the day the Cubs popped their head into first place this month where now the players can focus on playing winning baseball and not worry about their personal production.
As for the recent perennial bottom feeders of the division Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are now 16 games below .500 and easy targets for teams to come in and sweep them in their home field. Dusty there is no magic dust for your flawed team, nor can AAA players compete over the long haul as in Pittsburgh.
Now going foward I think this division race will come down to the final weekend where both clubs will be neck and neck down the stretch. The reason I point to the Wild Card is that it is conceivable that the upcoming race for a playoff birth could simultaneosly involve a wild card entry for the loser.
Looking foward the series St. Louis of Sept 18-21 weekend will probably be the biggest ticket in the State much like what it was like here in 2003 with that Labor Holiday weekend series with the Cards. After that series the Cards go on the road for a long late season road trip to Houston the pretenders, Colorado (WC contender) and then the ever falling Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs will continue their 10-game roadtrip playing the pretending Brewers and then going cross country to the other West Div WC contender with Giants in a 4-game series. Fortunately the Cubs come home to the AAA Pirates and then finish with the D-Backs.
Interestingly after St, Louis, Colorado faces the Brewers and then travels to LA to play the Dodgers while the Giants finish with the D-Backs and then the lowly Padres. Sure Atlanta or Florida could sneak into the WC mix but the trending since July 1st is telling me that Cubs and Cards will continue to push ahead pushing each other and eventually coming level with the WC leader.
It will be interesting and possibly get the Cubs real edgy for the playoffs, if they can secure a spot.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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51 comments
Comments
Instead of that comment, how about this one, which I bet most people here wouldn't have thought...
… after 105 games, the Cubs are 57-48.
After 105 games in 2008, the Cubs were 61-44. That’s right, this flawed, injured team is only four games worse than at the same time a year ago.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
i know
its just that the typical ivy walls post can be overly…..verbose at times.
good point about the teams though.
by CalCalender on Aug 5, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point about the verbosity.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Cubs replace horrible 08 September with good one in 09
I know it’s a stretch, but they could have nearly identical records.
I know it’s a stretch!
by ak123 on Aug 5, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That'd be great.
I’d settle for a division title, no matter how many wins.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Aug 5, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Win Division First With Whatever Record, Then....
replace horrible 2008 playoff performance with 11 postseason wins.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Aug 5, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
40-17 would give them the same number of wins
Yes, that’s a stretch!
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 5, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya thats like a . 702 winning perecentage or maybe .701 if my math of the top of my head is right.
With 2 or 3 more very tough road trips that is a big stretch but hey it is baseball and stranger things have happened. Obviously I do not even think the hardest of Cubs fans would bank on anything close to winning at a 700 clip over a long period of time of just under 60 games. That would be one sweet roll but pretty much impossible with this club
by MandMexpress12 on Aug 5, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
0.7017543859649122807017543 to be slightly more precise...
Sounds like a nice dream, but at the same time seems unlikely.
You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive them there. The only difference is that there is no cat. - Albert Einstein
by eths on Aug 6, 2009 4:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a stretch
Aug 2008 followed by Sept 2003…
Just win the next game...!
by blackhawk24 on Aug 6, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
90 Wins Very Possible for Cubs and Cards
The Cubs need to go 33-24 the rest of the way, while the Cardinals need to post a 31-21 record from here on out. It wasn’t that long ago that I thought 88 wins would be enough to win the division. I’m not sure 90 wins will be enough now.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Aug 5, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
33-24 seems doable...
assuming we get and stay healthy (a BIG “if” this year I know…). I’m suprised we even have a shot at 90 to be honest. I would not have thought that a month back.
My show opens this Friday 8/7. Come out and support a fellow Cubs fan?: Hot Beans Delivers
by digitalbenjamin on Aug 5, 2009 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's great, but . . .
In order to catch 2008’s record, the Cubs would have to win 18 more in a row.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 5, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying we've got a chance.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Aug 5, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly, the franchise win record is out of reach
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 5, 2009 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I guess 117 wins would be mathematically impossible
but let’s face it 1906 did not end well anyway except for fans like Dr. Crawdad.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
by Doggie Stalker on Aug 6, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was he around then?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 6, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both teams are 1.5 games behind the wild card leader (Colorado the Cubs next opponent where they are 12 games over .500), where San Francisco sits in between the Cards and Cubs.
I’m not entirely sure I get the syntax of this sentence.
One thing you missed that I think is critical: The Cubs are 3 up in the loss column against the Cards, who lost to the Mets today. We control our destiny. The Cards have to watch the clock run out and hope we falter.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 5, 2009 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
well technically if you want to go that route the Cardinals still control their own destiny as well, as they play us 3 more times.
When you have more games vs the team you trail than the number of games your behind you still control your own destiny. Technically cardinals do not have to depend on anyone else.I am not a big fan of controlling your destiny speak at anytime especially in August.
It is only August 5th and Cubs are practically tied with the Cardinals (yes I know loss column) plus having both the Astros and Brewers within striking distance. Although the Brewers and Astros are both flawed—just like the Cubs and Cardinals are, do not count out either yet.
Especially the Brewers, do not sleep on the brewers yet. Obviously their pitching is struggling but they are injured and will get a few of them back. Sometimes the Dl can freshen up veterans like Suppan and Bush late in the season. Also be careful with the Brewers because of their favorable schedule, and it has 2 big advantages. First it is very very easy in August, toughest is 6 games vs Astros 3 of which are at home. Second, the Brewers have a ton games (16) remaining with both the Cubs(7) and the Cardinals(9).That is easiest way for team behind in standings to come back. “They control their own Destiny if you will.”
It will be hard on their pitching down the stretch but you never know. Gallardo will basically have to go undefeated, which is tough on an oft inured youngster . The brewers have always been very very streaky in both ways as they are a young team. Their experience with adversity down the stretch last year will help. Obviously its tougher with no CC and with more teams in it.
I know a lot of people have discounted the brewers but with it being so early and all those things listed above do not forget about them yet. In light of Prince’s charging to the dodgers being caught on camera and getting national play I will assume he will be suspended. That could fire that team up and allow them to get right in August on an easy schedule. That gets them closer to the top to start September which would mean a lot of huge games vs Cubs and Cards. I hope I am very very wrong.
And lastly real quick on Astros, until they came into Chicago they were rolling, just sweeping the cardinals in a series. Roy Oswalt and Wandy had as good as a july as any 1-2 from any pitching staff. They were better than Lincecum n Cain, Carpenter n Wainwraight. Just Oswalt and Wandy got hurt but if they come back healthy those two can carry the Astros again, and quite honestly will have to. Also people are forgetting about Lance berkman coming back, and he was injured and not playing for a lot of the nice roll they got on. Berkman is a very professional hitter that can carry a team for a stretch, and is a match up nightmare being a switch. Also that extends the Astros’s line up very nicely with Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, and Geoff blum—plus Pence and Bourn have had nice year. Do not underestimate the impact one great professional hitter like Berkman can have on a lineup, just look at Aramis Ramirez’s return.
Hopefully I am wrong about both the Astros and the Brewers because pitching is very very important and they are fighting it right now. But baseball is a fickle game and things change fast. Lets just hope we can continue to distance ourselves from both especially the Brewers since we have 7 games remaining with them but only 3 with Astros.
by MandMexpress12 on Aug 5, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're missing the point
having those extra three games is importnat.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 6, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're missing the key
Once games are lost, they cannot be made up. As for the teams playing each other 3 more times, they each hold equal opportunity to win, therefore those games are a wash.
One of the 5 games in hand the Cubs had, they won. That was Monday night. They have to continue to take advantage of those games. Being up in the loss column is far more important than just the “GB” column so often seen in the standings.
Just win the next game...!
by blackhawk24 on Aug 6, 2009 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you for elucidating
what I couldn’t.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 6, 2009 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually the cubs arenow in first!!!
The Cardinals lost!!!
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 5, 2009 2:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Was anyone else worried...
…the Met’s might blow the 9 run lead?!?
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Aug 5, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could see it happening.
www.facebook.com/craighudak
by Craig in South Bend on Aug 5, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If...
anyone other than Ted Lilly could hit a 9-Run HR it would be Pujols.
by CubFan81 on Aug 5, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
After a 3- run home run and a grand slam, home runs are called Big Flies.
Ted Lilly just smacked a 5 run Big Fly!
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
by Cub Style on Aug 6, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs just barely in first place .538 to .536 for the birdies
You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive them there. The only difference is that there is no cat. - Albert Einstein
by eths on Aug 6, 2009 4:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hit button too soon
I wanted to say: Cubs just barely in first place with a .538 percentage to .536 for the birdies
You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive them there. The only difference is that there is no cat. - Albert Einstein
by eths on Aug 6, 2009 4:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Cubs have better pitching than the Cards, although the Cards may have a better lineup. With baseball, pitching is more important than hitting, so the Cubs may be the division winners (hopefully…that is, if someone shoots Gregg).
Anyway, the rest of the Cubs-Cards series will be in St. Louis, so as long as the Cubs don’t get swept, they’ve got the division locked down.
GO CUBS!!!!
I will never get sick of hearing the following: GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO! Hey, Chicago, what do ya say? The Cubs are gonna win today!
by NorthSideRocks on Aug 5, 2009 11:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It s the cardinals year
even the most diehard cubbie fan should not epect three straight years of the crown
take it easy
why care about a bloggers grammar
no matter how much you hate me you still read and comment me
by angryandy on Aug 6, 2009 2:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
are you always so optimistic and upbeat?
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 8:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he's not a Cubs fan
And based on a lot of his posts, he doesn’t want the Cubs to win. So, I suppose that is optimisim. I guess.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 6, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if he is a Cub fan or not
but if he is, it sure doesn’t agree with him, and he should move on. At least then we would be spared his incites (yes, I meant to spell it that way … it seemed appropriate).
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 6, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His profile says he's a White Sox fan
Which doesn’t preclude him liking the Cubs, but I don’t think that’s the case.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 6, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well we are about to ban him on blogabull....
by wennington4 on Aug 6, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
classic case of addition by subtraction
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Aug 7, 2009 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and this is because....
Just win the next game...!
by blackhawk24 on Aug 6, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't epect an answer.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Aug 6, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
why so angry
andy?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Aug 6, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not angry its just more natural for the cardinal red to be in nthe playoffs
Its more baseball to see the cardianls in post season and the Cubs talking about ..you know..net year
only lawyers should care for grammar are you one?
by angryandy on Aug 7, 2009 2:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait 'till net year!
Every other year is gross year!
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 7, 2009 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just kinda sad
That you post here more than you do your favorite teams site.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 7, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but we comment him.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 7, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
♪♫ Andy, Andy...why so angry... ♪♫
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Aug 7, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, we do appreciate a bloggers grammar.
…one would hope blogging would improve it.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Aug 6, 2009 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather be a Pirate fan than a Reds fan
Other than Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, the Reds offense looks pretty sad. I know that Walt Jockety is running the Reds now, but I think that from 2011-2014, the Pirates are going to be far superior to the Reds.
But this year… both of those teams will be lucky to play .350 ball the rest of the way.
It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??
by Invalid User on Aug 6, 2009 6:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Jay Bruce?
Even if he’s on the DL, he’s still technically in the organization. And I believe he’ll be back.
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
by Cub Style on Aug 6, 2009 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Chris Dickerson's got some skills, too...
…though he’s injured right now as well.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Aug 7, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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