Too soon to think of 2010 roster?
Here is a quote from Gordon Wittenmyer in todays Sun Times
••General manager Jim Hendry and Piniella are assured of coming back.
••Four players on the roster are free agents, including at least two the Cubs want back for the right terms (John Grabow and Reed Johnson) and two who may not fit their plans (Rich Harden and Kevin Gregg).
••Nine others will be seeking raises through arbitration, including potentially big first-time arbitration jumps for closer Carlos Marmol, shortstop Ryan Theriot and pitching swingman Sean Marshall. Infielders Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot, catcher Koyie Hill and pitchers Tom Gorzelanny, Aaron Heilman and Neal Cotts also are eligible.
••And $117.5 million already is committed next season to 10 players under contract.
So, of those eligible for arbitration, Marmol, Theriot, Baker, Hill, Marshall and Gorzelany I believe should be offered, as they have earned it, and that is of course if Hendry cannot come to terms prior to arbitration (which he has done a very good job of). Heilman, Cotts and Fontenot can walk IMHO. None of those three produced well enough to worry about losing.
Free Agents, I can see making offers to three of the four, bye Gregg.
Thing is, with $117 Million to 10 players, we are going to likely need a lot of cheap talent for the other 15 spots, unless one of two things happens:
* - player whose current contract includes 2010 option
Player Club
First Basemen
Russell Branyan SEA
Carlos Delgado NYM
Jason Giambi COL
Ross Gload * FLA
Aubrey Huff DET
Nick Johnson WAS
Adam LaRoche ATL
Robb Quinlan LAA
Matt Stairs PHI
Mike Sweeney SEA
Jim Thome LAD
Chad Tracy ARZ
Second Basemen
Marlon Anderson NYM
Ron Belliard LAD
Jamey Carroll CLE
Mark DeRosa STL
David Eckstein SD
Orlando Hudson LAD
Akinori Iwamura * TB
Omar Infante ATL
Felipe Lopez MIL
Placido Polanco DET
Freddy Sanchez * SF
Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera MIN
Bobby Crosby OAK
Adam Everett DET
Alex Gonzalez * BOS
Khalil Greene STL
John McDonald TOR
Marco Scutaro TOR
Miguel Tejada HOU
Jack Wilson * SEA
Third Basemen
Adrian Beltre SEA
Hank Blalock TEX
Geoff Blum HOU
Joe Crede MIN
Pedro Feliz * PHI
Chone Figgins LAA
Troy Glaus STL
Mike Lamb MIL
Melvin Mora * BAL
Catchers
Josh Bard BOS
Henry Blanco SD
Ramon Castro CWS
Ramon Hernandez * CIN
Jason Kendall MIL
Jason LaRue STL
Victor Martinez * BOS
Benji Molina SF
Jose Molina NYY
Miguel Olivo * KC
Mike Redmond MIN
Brian Schneider NYM
Yorvit Torrealba * COL
Jason Varitek * BOS
Gregg Zaun * TB
Outfielders
Bobby Abreu LAA
Garret Anderson ATL
Rick Ankiel STL
Rocco Baldelli BOS
Jason Bay BOS
Marlon Byrd TEX
Mike Cameron MIL
Frank Catalanotto TEX
Endy Chavez SEA
Coco Crisp * KC
Carl Crawford * TB
Johnny Damon NYY
David Dellucci CLE
Jermaine Dye * CWS
Darin Erstad HOU
Cliff Floyd SD
Ryan Freel TEX
Brian Giles SD
Ken Griffey Jr. SEA
Vladimir Guerrero LAA
Matt Holliday STL
Geoff Jenkins * PHI
Reed Johnson CHC
Andruw Jones TEX
Austin Kearns * WAS
Hideki Matusi NYY
Jason Michaels CLE
Xavier Nady NYY
Magglio Ordonez * DET
Manny Ramirez * LAD
Dave Roberts SF
Gary Sheffield DET
Randy Winn SF
Starting Pitchers
Brandon Backe HOU
Miguel Batista SEA
Josh Beckett * BOS
Erik Bedard SEA
Daniel Cabrera ARZ
Bartolo Colon CWS
Jose Contreras COL
Doug Davis ARZ
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Adam Eaton COL
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Jon Garland * LAD
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton HOU
Rich Harden CHC
Tim Hudson * ATL
Randy Johnson SF
John Lackey LAA
Cliff Lee * PHI
Braden Looper * MIL
Jason Marquis COL
Kevin Millwood * TEX
Brett Myers PHI
Vicente Padilla * LAD
Carl Pavano MIN
Brad Penny SF
Odalis Perez WAS
Andy Pettitte NYY
Joel Pineiro STL
Sidney Ponson KC
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz STL
Jarrod Washburn DET
Brandon Webb * ARZ
Todd Wellemeyer STL
Relief Pitchers
Danys Baez BAL
Joaquin Benoit TEX
Rafael Betancourt * CLE
Chad Bradford BAL
Doug Brocail * HOU
Kiko Calero FLA
Octavio Dotel CWS
Ryan Franklin * STL
Gary Glover WAS
Mike Gonzalez ATL
Tom Gordon ARZ
John Grabow CHC
Kevin Gregg CHC
LaTroy Hawkins HOU
Matt Herges COL
Trevor Hoffman MIL
Jason Isringhausen TB
Masahide Kobayashi * CLE
Brandon Lyon DET
Ron Mahay MIN
Gary Majewski WAS
Trever Miller STL
Darren Oliver LAA
Troy Percival TB
J.J. Putz * NYM
Fernando Rodney DET
Duaner Sanchez NYM
Scott Schoeneweis ARZ
Rafael Soriano ATL
Matt Thornton * CWS
Jose Valverde HOU
Luis Vizcaino * COL
Billy Wagner BOS
Jamie Walker BAL
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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128 comments
Comments
I would like to see
us go after Orlando Hudson and Rick Ankiel even as a backup up Johnson is no longer here and somehow we get rid of Bradley. I know he is a Cardinal and idk why I like this guy so much but he has one of the best arms in the league, a good bat when he stays in the lineup and maybe a new town will do him good and get him cheap but I think his agent is Boras but not sure. And Hudson a fast leadoff 2nd basemen good ole Lou wants.
"Women...you can't live without them, and they can't pee standing up." Rube Baker
by Eric16 on Sep 16, 2009 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Check the O-dog's splits since May
before getting all worked about acquiring him. His season has been almost a mirror image of Bradley’s, very good start but been tending downhill since.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Sep 16, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
one name I really want to see in Cubbie Blue from the list
Carl Crawford * TB
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Sep 16, 2009 11:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not a fan of Crawford
I have heard rumors before he isn’t the best club house guy.
by Cubsfan Waveland on Sep 16, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard confirmations...
that he’s a good baseball player…
by kanderber on Sep 16, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That he can be
but he also seems to get injured. Who do we get rid of so he can play an outfield spot?
by Cubsfan Waveland on Sep 16, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ideally?
Soriano. Realistically? Not sure if there is a realistic answer to that question, unless we exchange bad contracts with someone else.
by kanderber on Sep 16, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Realistically, any big acquisition anywhere on the diamond...
will require a trade unless Ricketts ups the payroll even further.
But the team would have to move either Bradley or Fukudome to bring in another OF. And they’ll probably have to avoid taking on much salary in return.
I think that, in order to see any major positional or rotational acquisitions, we’ll have to see multiple trades involving high-salary guys.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just on the money front for opposing team
looking at a deal that could get done. I would say Bradley for Vernon Wells, that gets Toronto out of a long contract and gets us a center fielder. Toronto then might be able to try to keep Halladay, since they already got rid of Rios and his contract. A change might help Wells get back to the player he once was, before he got that big contract.
by Cubsfan Waveland on Sep 16, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a terrible deal for us...
Wells makes a LOT more money than Bradley, and Bradley has been a better player the last few years (even this year). Wells is probably also a CF in name only at this point.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree it is a bad deal,
it was just an example of the type of deal we would have to look for.
by Cubsfan Waveland on Sep 16, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it will have to be a deal quite like that...
I think any trades will need to be for players somewhat similar in contracts – not players with contracts larger than the ones we’re sending out.
If Zambrano would waive his no-trade, for example, he could be moved to a team with a position player in the $12-15 million per year range either at CF or SS. Then, a guy like Bradley could be traded for some salary relief.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather keep Bradley for the next 2 years
than take Vernon Wells for his remaining contract (5 years?). I suspect Bradley will be more productive.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Sep 16, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right - 5 years and $98 million
Wells is not worth that kind of increase in payroll, in my opinion.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That won't bother Hendry from signing him
by ak123 on Sep 16, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man everyone is pretty brutal on Hendry.
Yes 2009 has not been a good year for him. But you have to keep things in perspective. He’s made plenty of GREAT deals that have been discussed on here at length. Overall I think he’s a good GM and is a net gain for the Cubs.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Sep 16, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I barely have been brutal on him
But he signed Bradley under the same sort of knowledge. Just pointing out a complete fact.
So therefore if someone is a clubhouse cancer, it shouldn’t surprise me that it might not be an issue with him signing on the Cubs.
by ak123 on Sep 16, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've read the opposite...
I’ve read that the Rays organization loves his professionalism and feels he’s a solid clubhouse personality, and that they signed him longer-term in some degree to mentor young players like Upton and Longoria.
Regardless, the asterisk next to his name is very important. He’s not really a free agent. The Rays have a club option for $10 million for 2010. I’d suspect they’ll use it.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
but the Rays may trade one of Crawford or Upton. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear further rumors along these lines. That said, Lou said he wants a #5 hitter and neither Crawford nor Upton are #5 hitters.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
to trade Crawford
they would need to pick up his option first, which doesnt make much sense IMO.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Sep 16, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SouthernCub, you are right about Crawford.
Crawford has been in a few altercations with his teammates, but what really needs to be taken away from that is who those teammates were. Delmon Young and Pat Burrell. I don’t know what the Burrell situation was about but I can guess who was at fault. Not Crawford. As for Delmon Young he needed to hear about his attitude from Crawford, unfortunately for him he didn’t listen. Seems to me that Crawford is EXACTLY the kind of guy you want on your team, someone who will get in a teammates face when it’s necessary. DLee is a great teammate and ambassador for the team but he’s not an in-your-face kind of leader. It certainly wouldn’t hurt the Cubs to have a guy like that, someone who could get on ARam for loafing, Soriano for…. you name it, Bradley for pouting and just generally being a pain in the ass, Soto for the stupid stuff he does at time, Zambrano for his childish antics and lazy off the field habits, Theriot for not taking walks like a good leadoff hitter should do. I could go on but I’m sure you get my point. I’m all for Crawford, he’s not a superstar but he is good and I think we could use a guy like him on the team.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey
by pageian on Sep 18, 2009 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
I haven’t heard that one. most things I’ve read have suggested that he’s a fairly solid clubhouse guy, and I used to peruse Rays blogs quite a bit (haven’t had as much time this year). He was the one that got in the faces of Upton/Young and others when they were goofing off back in the day, from what I recall. He’s also the one that often spoke proudly about being a Rays player … and this was when they were struggling. Maybe something’s happened in the past year.
As for Crawford, I’d pass largely because I think the cost of adding him isn’t going to be worth the value particularly since Crawford isn’t a CF.
by toonsterwu on Sep 16, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AWESOME
I’ve been a fan of Crawford for years! During that time, i’ve been wishing for some miracle to happen for him to join the Cubs. Though I REALLY wish he would be joining us, I just can’t really see anything great happening this offseason… UNLESS Hendry is able to make some miracle trades.
But I won’t hold my breath.
Great idea though Cubbie-Tim!
by TheHawkRules on Sep 16, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't look for much movement this winter
As has been stated ad nauseum, the Cubs have a lot of bloated contracts. Worse, a lot of the Top Ten didn’t perform up to their pay scale this year, notably Soriano, Zambrano, Bradley, Fukudome, even Ramirez because of his injuries. Plus most have the dreaded NTC, which I believe is one of Hendry’s weaknesses. All this means if we try to trade them, our market is limited, so supply and demand will dictate a buyers’ market. Face it, either we stick with them and hope this year was an anomoly (which I think it was for Bradley, Soriano and Ramirez) or get reamed in a trade.
The only ones I can see trading are (and I’m ready for backlash) are Lee and Lilly. I don’t want to see either one of them go, but at least we might be able to sell high. But Lee has the NTC (I don’t know if Lilly does), so that limits the market somewhat. I don’t see either of these getting moved.
I think the moves this winter will be to pick up some middle relief and some bench help, both of which are typically pretty cheap. If the new owner is willing to expand the payroll, we might try to pick up a good hitting middle infielder, either a 2nd baseman, or a SS and move Theriot to 2nd. That type player is neither cheap nor readily available, though. I’d prefer we use that money on some of our arbitration eligible players, especially Marmol, Theriot and Gorzelanny.
by CubbieFaninOhio on Sep 16, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, this isn't likely to be the best offseason to address needs, unfortunately...
And the issue is exacerbated by the fact that we have little to no payroll flexibility and many of our guys have veto power on trades.
Unless there’s a surprise (moving Bradley and not eating tons of salary) or Hendry convinces Zambrano to waive his no-trade clause, I think it’ll be a lot of movement on the fringes and we’ll have to hope for better health and better production from guys like Soriano, Bradley and Soto.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree with this
I feel this team will have 1 more year to make it.
I don’t think it’s too much to ask for better year-long sustained play from Sori, Rami, Soto, and MB which would elevate the offense.
They need to keep Harden and at the same time get a couple of bullpen arms as Gregg will not be back under any circumstance.
by socalbob on Sep 16, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yikes.
You’re right, with all that money committed, it’s hard to see Hendry making any moves unless a trade presents itself.
We could get the usual bullpen shuffling and bench reboot; but, there does not seem to be a possibility of any real improvement without an open wallet or successful trade.
Ugh. I hope there’s something good in the works.
"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez
"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."
by The Jade Scorpion on Sep 16, 2009 2:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And it won't be easy to make room via trade, either...
As realistically the only big-money guys that would have trade value are Lilly, Lee and Ramirez. And moving those guys will almost certainly make us worse off next year.
I’d guess that the best trade angles from a Cubs perspective would be moving one of Bradley and Fukudome and moving one of Zambrano and Dempster. Unfortunately, three of those four have no-trade clauses (making it much harder to trade them) and the fourth has the least trade value.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There aren't going to be many, if any, huge changes next year,
unless Hendry miraculously is able to unload some of his contracts. Here are the locks to start next year:
C Soto/Hill
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
SS Theriot
LF Soriano
CF Fukudome
RF Bradley
Offensively, little will change. I don’t see anything done at catcher, and frankly, are there any better options out there? Lets hope Hill keeps “winning games” and Soto works out his issues and gets in better shape. Soriano and Bradley are gonna be here next year. If the only way to move Bradley is eat most, if not all, of his contract, I would hold onto him. Second base is the only real spot that’s open, and I see two options which I really like. Either a) Hendry gets his hands on Uggla, who Florida will likely look to trade due to his soon to be elevated salary or b) Theriot slides over to second base and Andres Blanco takes the bulk of the games at SS, with Jeff Baker rotating in to give them a break.
SP Z
SP Lilly
SP Dempster
SP Wells
I like that front four, and if Piniero leaves St. Louis, the Cubs would have the best rotation in the division. The question is who fills in at five. It should be Sean Marshall. That rotation lacks a true ace, but it looks very strong 1-5. Gorzelanny would offer some insurance.
RP Marmol
RP Guzman
RP Grabow
Those are the guys I would trust going into next year. Nobody else from this year’s pen looks good enough to be relied upon for next year’s roster. I’m interested to see how much Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano go for in the off-season, as both are injury prone but have elite level stuff. Either one of those guys would be great pickups. A back end with Marmol, Gooze, Grabow and Soriano/Gonzalez would be great.
For all the talk about Lou looking for speed at the top of the lineup and power in the middle, I don’t see either of those requests being fulfilled. Get used to what you’re seeing now, as that’s whats gonna be here next year.
by dakoose on Sep 16, 2009 3:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with most of this, but I have a bit of concern...
My concern is that the team will still try to make an overaggressive push to add either (1) a LH power bat or (2) a top-of-the-order speed guy. I’m worried that the team will (like they did Fukudome and then with Bradley) try to fill a supposed need with a guy who may be less than suited for that role.
There aren’t a lot of good top-of-the-order speed guys out there. Further, we have two really good OBP guys available that could bat 1-2 in Fukudome and Bradley. I’d rather not overpay (via trade or via another bloated contract) for a mediocre option just because that guy is fast. But I could see Hendry doing that.
by SouthernCub on Sep 16, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
Any mix of Theriot, Fukudome, Bradley at 1-2 would me more than adequate. All things being equal, I see Lou giving those spots to Theriot and Fukudome, simply based on speed and ability to do “the little things.”
I would feel (more than) comfortable with a lineup of:
Fukudome
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Bradley
Uggla(this is my big wish this offseason. He’s fantastic and I have him down for .260/.360/.500 next year if a Cub.)
Soriano*
Soto
Could the lineup stand to be more left-handed? Absolutely, and I suspect that Hendriella will look at 2b as a spot to go with a lefty(Hudson?), but I’ll take pure ability over tactical advantage any day of the week.
I like the rotation and ’pen potential as well, as long as 1, maybe 2, solid back end arms are brought in.
by dakoose on Sep 16, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Orlando Hudson
was once a really good player, but his fielding has really gone down hill. I’d only want him if I knew his fielding could come back, and it doesn’t look like it is. I’m not nearly as big a Uggla fan as you are, especially since you have to trade to get him. Honestly, I’m more comfortable with Jeff Baker at 2B than Theriot at SS, so if I’m trading anyway, I really want to fix SS, not 2B.
I’m not sure why Theriot is seen as adequate at the top of the order. 2008 is looking very fluky right now.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you like Uggla?
Looking at the numbers, I didn’t realize Theriot regressed(at the plate) as much as he did. That being said, I don’t think he’s this bad, and I would expect .295/.350/.365 next year, with his usual 20-25 SB. I wouldn’t play Theriot at 1 or 2 every day, but he would be a decent, or adequate, option at the top of the lineup. He wouldn’t be great, but I could live with him hitting somewhat consistently at 1-2. On a separate note, he’s improved his defense significantly per UZR, and overall he provides a pretty good package at SS.
by dakoose on Sep 16, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uggla is ok.
If we’d have gotten him by Rule 5 or plucked him off waivers, that’d be cool. I’m just not convinced he’s worth trading for when you can sign Mark DeRosa.
I’d really rather try and trade Theriot or just play him part time next year. He and Fontenot are both exposed in full time play.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
mark derosa is going to be 35 in 2010
The official slogan of your 2009 Chicago Cubs:
Why?
by jesus christos on Sep 16, 2009 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on both...
…Theriot and Fontenot, but I’m not sure you want to go back after DeRosa. Going to the well again with him, may be dissppointing.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But going to the Uggla well may be just as disappointing.
At least DeRosa only costs money. I wouldn’t really go either route, and I don’t expect Hendry to go either route, especially if Lou has a decent amount of say in who they go after, but even, really, if Lou doesn’t.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't paid...
…a lot of attention to Uggla, so I can’t really comment one way or another.
There is no question whoever is in charge will be trying to make changes, the question is will others play along. All this talk of dumping contracts will not be easy, especially with the economy affecting how much clubs are willing to risk. Considerable changes will require eating money, and I just don’t know how much Rickett’s is willing to commit with the debt service nut he will have that the Trib didn’t have to deal with.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come on.
Theriot deserves a full time gig. Yeah, he regressed at the dish this year, but a) he likely isn’t this bad and b) he made up for it by improving defensively. He’s been worth 11+ million this year per fangraphs, in a down year offensively, and has turned himself into a pretty useful player. Give the guy his due.
Fontenot, on the other hand, I have no faith in. To say Uggla is just OK is kinda wrong. He’s got special power for a 2b, and his power numbers could/shoulr rise in a friendlier ballpark like Wrigley. Uggla has a better track record than DeRosa, and he’s significantly younger. If Uggla is brough in next year, Theriot should net 120 starts at SS with Blanco filling in the other forty or so.
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 12:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way,
the speculation is that Uggla will get up to 8 million next year in arbitration, up from the 5.35 he’s hauling in this year. The team’s payroll was 135 million this year, and assuming it stays in that vicinity, Hendry has 20-25 million to play with, less after figuring in some arbitration figures. Hendry has displayed some payroll creativity before, I’d like to see him do it again this offseason. BRING IN UGGLA!!!
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 12:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the payroll stays at $135 million
then I believe we have only $18 million to play with to fill 15 roster spots. We’re committed $117 million to 10 players next year already, not counting arbitration raises for Marmol, Theriot, Marshall, and potentially Baker, Fontenot, Gorzellany and Hill, and not counting the possibility of re-signing Grabow (possible) or Harden (doubtful).
Say you bring in Uggla at $8 million. That leaves ~$10 million to fill 14 roster spots. And that will have to include raises for Marmol, Theriot and Marshall. I would guess those three will probably command raises in the neighborhood of $5 million total, leaving around $5 million for the other 11 roster spots. That’s barely enough to cover the minimum salary for 11 spots.
In other words, that would mean we’d have to let Baker, Fontenot, Gorzellany, Harden and Grabow walk, because we’d have no further money for arbitration raises.
So to bring in a guy like Uggla and not wind up with a roster of 10-12 minimum salary players, either the payroll will have to go up by $5 million or so or Hendry will have to find a way to shed salary elsewhere.
by SouthernCub on Sep 17, 2009 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That last line is what I'm banking on.
I never said it’s going to be easy to acquire Uggla, and I specifically said that Hendry, with out an increased payroll, will have to get creative. We aren’t arguing here, we’re saying the same thing.
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was commenting on the $20-25 million statement.
If you assume a $135 million payroll, then we don’t have $20-25 million to play with. We have $10-15 million to play with (after accounting for definite arbitration raises) to fill 10-12 roster spots. If what you wrote wasn’t exactly what you meant, then I agree.
But yes, Hendry would have to get VERY creative to add a guy like Uggla. I’m not sure that it’s worth it. It’d be a defensive step back at 2B and a step forward offensively.
by SouthernCub on Sep 17, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The team’s payroll was 135 million this year, and assuming it stays in that vicinity, Hendry has 20-25 million to play with, less after figuring in some arbitration figures.
We/’re saying the same thing.
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to remember...
…Rickett’s is going to have debt service on the 500 mil the Trib made him borrow to buy the club. This is something the Trib did not have, and we don’t know how this will impact the payroll in the coming years. In essence, if the payroll stays at 135 mil, it would be the equivalent of the Trib having a payroll of about 160 mil.
I know Rickett’s is going to work on new ways to increase revenue, but it will be difficult to have those take full effect in the next 1-2 years. He could sell naming rights, and probably get 15 mil a year for that, but it still wouldn’t come close to covering his debt service.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 17, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure this is a down year offensively for Theriot?
He has three big league seasons under his belt:
2007: .266/.326/.346
2008: .307/.387/.359
2009: .289/.344/.382
Career: .290/.357/.373
He’s had one really bad year, one very good year, and one year in between. His 2009 line is almost exactly in line with his career average. So why would you call it a down year?
I agree that, for the money he’s making, he’s been a useful player to this point. But I don’t know that I’d say last year was the “norm” for him and that this year was a down year.
by SouthernCub on Sep 17, 2009 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Answering dakoose also in this thread
The thing about Theriot is that he, like Freddy Sanchez, is the kind of player you can easily end up overpaying. His price is starting to go up. His raw SB totals (as opposed to his stealing %) may increase his arb rates higher than his actual value. His durability issues hint at potential fragility. I just don’t want to commit any money to him and think he might actually have trade value.
Does he “deserve” a full time gig? Sure, I guess. Mike Fontenot deserved a fuller-time gig last year and we saw how that worked out. Just because a player might deserve something doesn’t make it smart to give it to him.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 17, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand you're point.
Is he a good major league shortstop? Yes, and the numbers bear that out. In a down year he’s been roughly league average at the dish and above average defensively. He’s good, and he’s had a couple of good years on a row now, unlike Fontenot, who had a good half season’s worth of AB’s.
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh,
well I don’t think this is a down year for Theriot. His minor league and major league #s say 2009 is Theriot.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 17, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So a leagu average hitter and a fairly above average defender
don’t make for a good player? 2005 was the last year he walked this few times and struck out as often as he has last year. A regression to the trends he set in 06-08 seems like a reasonable expectation, especially considering his age, which is 29. Not too young, but not old enough to bring upon decline. Personally, I’m happy to have Theriot at SS. He’s no star, but he’s one of the better players at the position. 10th in MLB in VORP, 5th in the NL. Tied for 6th in MLB in UZR.
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part of it depends on whether you believe UZR.
Let’s not forget that decline comes quickly upon middle infielders who rely upon their speed. Not at 29, no, but my point remains the same – the more his price goes up, the more I’d rather have whatever I can get back in trade for him.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 17, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is his expected salary jump next year?
This year, he’s making beans, just .5 million.
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why do I see this is a down year?
His walk rate is the lowest it’s been in years, as is his contact rate. If those things rise to anywhere near last year’s levels, were talking about a very big asset at SS. Is he as good as he was last year, maybe, maybe not, but I think he’s better than he has shown this year. He’s being pitched to differently this year(less fastballs, more offspeed stuff), if he adjusts is numbers should improve markedly.
by dakoose on Sep 17, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh? Theriot's worth $11+ million according to anything?
I must admit I have no idea how fangraphs works, but this can’t mean what it seems like it means, can it?
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
by davidalanu on Sep 18, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs...
…must be sponsored by the MLBPA.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems crazy, but it does imply what it seems to imply...
Fangraphs simply estimates a player’s value above replacement player, and then estimates the dollar value of wins above replacement level that teams placed on free agents.
It’s less a reflection on how good Theriot is and more a reflection on how overpaid the average MLB free agent is. But technically, Theriot is “worth” $11+ million because MLB executives give that contract value to free agents with similar performance.
by SouthernCub on Sep 18, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't you agree, though, that in reality
his performance in no way, shape, or form is worthy of $11M, and no GM in his right mind would pay him half of that amount? Theriot is a fairly pedestrian player. In 2009 it looks like only three SS’s are making over $10M: Jeter, Tejada, and Michael Young
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
by davidalanu on Sep 18, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree that no GM would pay him $11 million...
I think that those fangraphs estimates tend to get skewed by fact that free agents aren’t paid linearly for value. For example, players making $2-5 million often provide less than replacement value as reserves. I’m also not sure if they differentiate player value from pitcher value, either.
by SouthernCub on Sep 19, 2009 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theriot = $11M???
Not even in this overpriced era.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Sep 18, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
theriot should not be a 1 or 2 guy
people who swing at the first pitch should get punched in the face
by jesus christos on Sep 16, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the way to go is to look at this from a positional perspective
not so much from a lineup perspective. The lineup will work itself out, especially since Lou won’t play the same lineup for than two dozen times anyway.
We have our corner IFs, our OFs, and our Cs. We are weak at middle IF. It’s possible that Baker, Fontenot, and Theriot will be adequate, perhaps even good next year. It’s also possible they will all be bad. We should add another option. Maicer Izturis, Erick Aybar, Reid Brignac – these are the guys I would work to acquire. Scutaro is the free agent version who you could also look at. But the two Angels have the added benefit of being realistic top-of-the-order guys.
I’d also explore trading DLee in his last year, but only if I get good value. I’d explore trading Fukudome if I could get a bead on a guy like Curtis Granderson or B.J. Upton. There are a lot of trades I’d make with Zambrano in certain circumstances.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just skimming
But … if it’s between trading prospects for Uggla and paying him … or going with Jeff Baker … I’d rather go with Baker as the starting 2nd baseman and find a utility guy. I think Uggla’s the better individual player probably, but I don’t think it’s by much to justify a move for him.
by toonsterwu on Sep 18, 2009 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
especially given how tight the payroll is likely to be the next year or two, it doesn’t make sense to me to wildly overpay for a bit of improvement (offensively only – it’d be a downgrade defensively) at 2B. I think there have to be more efficient ways to spend what are likely to be limited resources this offseason.
Had Uggla been a free agent and if we had payroll flexibility like 2006 or 2007, I’d be much more inclined to discuss the idea. But I have to believe that the purse strings are getting tight after so much spending the last 2-3 years and with so many long contracts.
by SouthernCub on Sep 18, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Team
I’m still hoping the Cubs can perform a micracle and catch the wild card… Till the season is over, it’s hard to really think of 2010…
However, I think we are going to pretty much have the same team next year we had this year. Maybe Hendry could perform one miracle during the offseason and make a good trade… but, i’d be surprised.
by TheHawkRules on Sep 16, 2009 3:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I find it interesting that Wittenmeyer
is for sure that Hendry and Piniella will be back when Ricketts has not even taken over yet. Nobody knows what he is going to want to do and whom he will bring in as well as not being sure of what the budget will be next year. It is way too soon to say the offseason is going to be a slow one.
Usually a new owner will try and make a splash and I would be willing to bet that Rickets will be bring a baseball man to be President and let Kenney work on the marketing and advertising side of things. Don’t be surprised if Sandy Alderson is named President. But time wil tell.
by cubdreamer on Sep 16, 2009 5:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Got that impression too
Wittenmeyer doesn’t know what is going to happen. He’s just pasting a story together. I think it is reasonable to assume, though, that Hendry and Lou will be back if they want to be back.
by AboutTheCubs on Sep 16, 2009 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
…and the big question will be how quickly he will want to make a statement in regards to bringing in his own hand picked people. Certainly, he can’t be pleased with the overall state of the organization and how much dough (and no-trades) are tied up in a handful of players, with many being question marks going forward.
I’m not so interested in the 2010 roster right now, but I am very interested to see who will have input on that roster. Hopefully, there will be input from someone who has a fresh and sound baseball approach to player selection.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, MPH73 -
let’s just get this on record now – if a Hendry team were to sneak into the playoffs this year or make it next year…
… and win it all, you’d stand by your claim that Jim Hendry is a miserable GM. Right?
(In case you’re wondering where this comes from, I’m picking up on your dismissive statements about 2010.)
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll just say this...
…I believe my opinion about Hendry’s work as GM is based on an in depth analysis of his TOTAL responsibilities as a GM. I have also been consistent with my opinion of Hendry going all the way back to the end of the Baker days, and also during the division winning years, so I have not wavered in why I feel the way I do.
If the club sneaked in this year it would be inspite of Hendry’s work. Next year is hard to comment on, because I don’t know what adjustments would have been made to the club to potentially win a championship.
In summary, I don’t believe Hendry has earned the right to do any of the following:
Hire another manager
Increase the payroll
assemble another roster (without supervision)
Oversee the entire baseball operations (scouting, player development, etc.)
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Agree on everything but
If he’s allowed to increase payroll I’m definitely not complaining. As long they do a good job deciding how to spend the money.
by ak123 on Sep 16, 2009 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That goes...
…to my point on supervision.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that
But if the new owner wants to spend his money and increase payroll I won’t complain. At the same time if he wants to reduce payroll by as much as 20-30 million I understand that too.
by ak123 on Sep 17, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So are you dodging my question or not?
I guess my deeper question is – you believe a guy could get to the playoffs over half the years the team was under his control, win it all, and still be miserable – not just below average, not just kinda bad, but miserable?
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I have made my point...
…pretty clear.
By the way, I don’t believe a Hendry club has “won it all”, so I would consider that quite a leap of faith to use that as a big “if”.
Couple more points; during Hendry’s tenure, two division opponents have won more games, a WS, and two NL pennants, while spending less dough and not handcuffing their club with a lot of dough tied up in guys who have a few ??? going forward. Also, the clubs scouting and player development has been below average and that will continue to cost the team in the years ahead. Furthermore, Jim (square peg/round hole) Hendry, has not shown me he knows how to put a complimentary roster together since that fleeting moment in the later half of 03 and that only happened because Patterson went down.
Now, you may disagree with all this and that’s fine, but IMO, Jim Hendry has not earned the right to keep running the show going forward, plain and simple.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course it's a big if!
I’m just trying to gauge how much your perspective of what makes a good GM is divorced from whether or not his teams play winning baseball.
I presume it’s fair, for example, that if – yes an even bigger if – if Jim Hendry’s team rattled off back-to-back championships, you would still believe he should be fired.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 16, 2009 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course not...
…but that is a hypothetical situation that is not reality. All I am basing my opinion on is what I have seen from Hendry in totality from 2003 on. Most people just look at the trades or FA signings, but that is only a portion of what I look at. IMO, the arrow is pointing down for the club with a lot of money commited to some players with uncertainties, and that is not a good position to be in. There has been bad decisions made on roster construction, and the farm has not exactly churned out an abundance of talent either.
It is always about winning, but it is also about winning consistently and putting the club in a position to be solid for years to come.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right to look at the bigger picture.
Here’s another question then – a big picture question. If a team has a shot to win it all, does it ever make sense to sell your future to try and grab the ring, potentially falling on your face trying to grab it?
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 17, 2009 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it's reasonable...
…the answer is an absolute yes.
But here is the kicker; if a short term (throw every against the wall) approach is your main focus, you will eventually pay the piper down the road. Also, if you need to throw a lot of money at FA’s etc. to give it a go, you better be damn good at being able to fit the right pieces together to give yourself the best shot to win now.
Hendry has acquired talent throw both trades and the FA market (with some being very good). But, the most important piece of this is being able to acquire “the right talent”, so you don’t have a bunch of mis-fitting parts.
A big check book will help any GM to acquire talent, but it doesn’t replace the skill of picking the right pieces.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 17, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
…if the organization is strong, you shouldn’t have to risk “falling on your face” to go for it in the short term. If you have a strong base, it should put you in a position to “go for it” without tanking it for the next couple of years.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 17, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hell yes
the farm team is in place to make the Chcicago Cubs of the NL Central the best they can possibly be.
Trade all of the minor leaguers to win a World Series. The problem is, you better have a good farm system and better win. Hendry has not delivered on a good farm system.
It was amazing to see what “top propsects” could net us in ’03 and ’04? Bobby Hill and Hee-Seop paid huge dividends because of their minor league credentials.
by socalbob on Sep 18, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2010
i think big z is the most tradeble. he needs to just learn to shut up. already its if the cubs want to trade me i dont care.blah blah blah. i like z . i wanna keep z. but if the cubs can net a haul of 3 or 4 productive players to improve the team theres nothing i can do about it. i still have not given up on soto or fontenot. hopefully just off seasons. fontenot played himself into the 2nd base job last year. this year he might have played himself off the team.
by NOMAR on Sep 16, 2009 5:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure...
…the haul for Z will be what you think, especially with his increased DL time and attitude issues which affect his performance.
For sure, if you want quality in return, you will probably need to send money along to whoever takes him off your hands.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 16, 2009 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rays
crawford or upton or akinori. anyone would be nice on this team. im sure ricketts will let hendry spend some money this winter. and if they lose z that will free up big cash.
by NOMAR on Sep 16, 2009 5:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Iwamura
Assuming we don’t have the money or just can’t get a deal done with Figgins, I’d sign Iwamura to platoon with Baker. He can also back up Ramirez at 3B. I’d also try my best to get Hoffpauir more at bats. Heck, rotate him in with Bradley, Soriano and Lee against righties. Gives the injury prone guys more time off and lets you take advantage of the lefty/righty matchup. I bet Hoffpauir could hit .280 with 20 HR in 400 consistent at bats.
Lineup could go like this:
vs. Righties:
1. Iwamura (2B)
2. Fukudome (CF)
3. Lee (1B)
4. Ramirez (3B)
5. Hoffpauir (LF/RF)
6. Soriano/Bradley (LF/RF)
7. Soto ( C )
8. Theriot (SS)
vs. Lefties:
1. Theriot/Johnson (SS/CF)
2. Bradley (RF)
3. Lee (1B)
4. Ramirez (3B)
5. Soriano (LF)
6. Soto ( C )
7. Baker (2B)
8. Johnson/Theriot (CF/SS)
by Bradsbeard on Sep 17, 2009 4:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
theriot should not lead off
The official slogan of your 2009 Chicago Cubs:
Why?
by jesus christos on Sep 17, 2009 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theriot career v. Lefties
.307 / .390 / .433
Of course, Reed Johnson has this career line v. lefties:
.312 / .376 / .459
So a good case could be made for either against lefties.
by Bradsbeard on Sep 17, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
stat wise theriot should
but hes had a different approach at the plate since that 3 day home run binge that involves seeing at most 3 pitches
The official slogan of your 2009 Chicago Cubs:
Why?
by jesus christos on Sep 17, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reed Johnson needs to go
He can’t finish a season playing part time. It makes no sense to keep him.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Sep 18, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Iwamura.
That’s a much better choice than Figgins.
“Speed” isn’t the issue.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 17, 2009 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs need to stop
giving Free Agents three and four year deals. Other than Ted Lilly, I can’t think of any of them that have worked for us. (Well, Ramirez, but I mean guys we signed from other teams. And the jury is actually even still out on the Ramirez deal.)
Figgins is a nice player, but I sure as heck don’t want to give him the four year contract that he’s going to require. We’ve got good middle infielders coming up through the system, and Figgins would just block them (Or Vitters at 3B)
The farm system is getting better. Let’s not bury it under a bunch of long contracts.
by Josh77 on Sep 18, 2009 3:26 AM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
hendry has signed several aging speedsters to long term deals
i dont think that will stop him
The official slogan of your 2009 Chicago Cubs:
Why?
by jesus christos on Sep 18, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soriano and...?
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 18, 2009 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry
but since no one is going to say it, but that’s a very flawed thinking. I’ve touched on it below, but I’ll expand on it in another post in the near future. It isn’t simply an issue of Figgins, although the Figgins case covers almost every possible argument against the above argument – that general thinking is quite flawed relative to where this organization currently stands. It certainly has to be a factor, but anyhow, I figured I’d finally respond to this since everyone’s been praising the general idea. It’s flawed, and it has all the markings of a bad organization to act based upon the main tenet argued by the poster. Hey, I love the farm, I love the following farm, as I think most are aware, but I would be severely disappointed in any organization that is in the same position as the Cubs will be next year, and uses the above as a justification for something.
by toonsterwu on Sep 19, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Food for thought...
…but by no means is the Cub’s farm looking like their will be a nice crop of position players that will actually excel at the major league level. Some might, but you are still talking a couple years down the road.
I do agree this constant (go out and overpay for someone) philosophy has been slowly buring the organization, and the floor is starting to slip out from underneath because of bad decisions on those signings. What is more important is if the farm system wouldn’t have gone through such a long dry spell of producing position players, they wouldn’t have had to try and make FA pieces fit that just don’t.
You have a bit of a mess, and I don’t see anyone in the organization I would trust to think there way out of this.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 19, 2009 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buying free agents doesn't bury the organization
unless you block good prospects and dump their value. The Cubs did this with Pie, but you were on board with the Pie process every step of the way. So, I’m not sure how you can make the case that buying free agents buries the org.
If I understand your argument, anyway, buying free agents is more a symptom than the illness.
Randy Wells - You continue to astound me.
by DGU on Sep 20, 2009 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Several issues here...
…the need to go out every year and overpay for pieces you haven’t been able to fill over the years from your farm, and, making bad decisions on the ones you choose.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 20, 2009 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man
The point of that was, Iwamura is a much better choice than Figgins because we could probably get him on a one or two year contract.
by Josh77 on Sep 18, 2009 3:28 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Both of your comments rec'd
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 18, 2009 7:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well said Josh, recd both
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Sep 18, 2009 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is also, at its base, a flawed statement
Simply because a person is more affordable (cost or years) does not justify a move. Any organization that does as such is making a flawed decision.
If you buy Iwamura as a significant upgrade as a top of the order option … fine. I just don’t see Iwamura as a significant enough upgrade. He’s basically a lefty version of Theriot offensively. People will point to his current rise in OBP … but prior to this year, his OBP in the leadoff role was .344. I’m also not too keen on a guy that strikes out as much as he does while lifting balls as much as he does as my leadoff guy. As a 2 hole guy, I’d be more amenable, but Akinori Iwamura is, like Theriot, better suited as a bottom of the order hitter.
This isn’t to say he’s a bad player, or that he isn’t a starter. It’s to ask the simple question of what, as of right now, he offers the Chicago Cubs for 2010 and whether or not that is enough of an upgrade to justify a move. If all else fails, and Iwamura comes at the right price (and people are assuming he’s available … he probably will be … but the Rays could easily deal off Crawford or Upton, shift Zobrist to OF (Zobrist can play some CF, but Jennings if the future there, but Zobrist could be in the corner) and option Rodriguez (or Brignac, likely Rodriguez though) to AAA … and even if Iwamura is available, it’s not hard to imagine a team forking over an asset to land him to prevent him hitting the open market … for example, Seattle is rumored to be low on Jose Lopez, for justifiable reasons, and I could see them explore this as Aki would be a fit for them), sure I’d ponder it.
But simply being more affordable, cost or years, is not enough to justify any sort of move, particularly since the positional block is not nearly as significant as the poster is making it out to be (again … best case scenario is that we develop a 2nd baseman to start by 2011, but more likely, 2012 is the better target year …, furthermore, Figgins has shown the ability to play other positions at a solid (3rd) to decent/passable (OF) enough level to move him elsewhere … for example, you could start Figgins at 2nd for a couple years and if you develop someone, shift him to CF and slide in your 2nd baseman). Or you could flat out try to sign him for CF.
As noted, I’m not really clamoring for an all-in on Figgins either. These are simply, at its root, flawed points and arguments.
by toonsterwu on Sep 19, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iwamura could be a valuable pickup
a better use of limited funds than the soon to be overpriced Figgins.
As for your projection for Hoffpauir, what are you putting in your Cubbie Kool aid?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Sep 18, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Akinori Iwamura...
..is the choice that I think would look best in the Cubs organization; not only can he do 3B and 2B, there’s some talk that he’s more than capable at SS. If that’s the case, there’s your off the bench (starting?) utility player.
He’d definitely allow the Cubs to dump Miles.
Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.
by LeSaboteur on Sep 20, 2009 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andres Blanco might be able to do that utility job better and cheaper.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 21, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quite possibly.
Are we satisfied we Andy’s bat?
Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.
by LeSaboteur on Sep 21, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it's better than Aaron Miles' bat.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 22, 2009 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, this year at least...
While Miles has historically been a poor hitter, he’s also historically been a much better hitter than Blanco. I’m not sure why Miles was so horrific, but I’d think he’d outhit Blanco next year. Granted – defensively, there’s no comparison.
by SouthernCub on Sep 22, 2009 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And in general...
… isn’t that what you want a backup infielder for? For defense?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 22, 2009 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Generally speaking, sure...
I was just saying that I don’t think it’s fair to say that Blanco’s bat is better than Miles’ bat.
For the full package, I’d rather have Blanco be the backup middle infielder in a defensive sub and spot start capacity. But it’s not because of his bat.
by SouthernCub on Sep 22, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick thoughts
I was going to wait and do a fanpost, but I’ll just tag some quick thoughts here.
Iwamura – Why? The question that needs to be asked is this – what does he add to our team? Simply perceiving him to be a better option than Figgins isn’t enough. Iwamura is a below average-average defender at 2nd and 3rd. He’s not exactly a great leadoff option. Is he better than what we have? Perhaps, but that isn’t saying much right now, and I don’t buy him as a significantly better leadoff option than Theriot (and I don’t care for Theriot at the top of the order). Put it this way, if the option A is Baker/Theriot in the MI and option B is Iwamura/Theriot. I’d take option A and allocate money to other areas.
Btw, this isn’t to say I would haphazardly pay Figgins. I’m still not sold he leaves Anaheim. They have the money, and they have the need (no other great leadoff option).
Everything depends on what the numbers are, but as of now, assuming we have the money, I’d rather give Figgins a 4 year deal than Iwamura a 2 or 3 year deal (and considering the market, don’t be surprised if Akinori can land a 3 year deal, or 2 and an option, at solid MI market cost – this is assuming Iwamura is released – the Rays still own his rights). First, I don’t think Figgins will cost a 4 year deal. 2nd, Figgins has shown enough development in his peripherals to suggest that, even if the physical ability starts to decline, his offensive skillset should allow him to continue to be productive. 3rd, Figgins is a better fit right now for need. 4th, many people believe Figgins will age well, partly due to the fact that he didn’t get heavy use until 2004 (somewhat akin to some perceptions on Brian Roberts). 5th, Figgins doesn’t significantly block anyone. That’s a very flawed argument to make. He can handle third (if Vitters doesn’t develop, our next option is perhaps someone like Flaherty). He can handle 2nd (I love our up the middle options, but Flaherty/Watkins/LeMahieu and Co. are far away. Best case scenario has one of them ready by 2011, but there is a high likelihood that 2012 is more likely, at which point, the Figgins deal wouldn’t be as big an issue). Figgins can be moved to CF as well, where the system’s top chips have questions and are far away (as of right now, my expectation on the Cubs future CF is still Logan Watkins or Hak-ju Lee). Again, I’m not saying go overboard for Figgins. Rather, I’m saying that Figgins is a better option than Iwamura, even including the cost difference. Of course, this presupposes that we have the money to make said move, which no one knows at this moment.
In saying this, I was going to put in my initial quick thought before reading this odd Iwamura love. Again, I’d be open to Iwamura at the right price (but more for the role the Cubs envisioned for Aaron Miles this year). I just don’t see what he adds of significant value, outside of enhancing our status in Japan (and I’m being dead serious on the former … what does he add to this club that justifies said move?)
My initial thought I was going to add is this – in an offseason without many ideal fixes, what I would like to see (I think that Hendry will try going after Figgins first) is some … for lack of a better word, guts on ideas. I am not a Hendry basher, never have been. He’s made some bad decisions. He’s made some good decisions. I think, though, like most people, the easiest answers are the ones we often pursue, and thus, I expect the usual names out there, Figgins and Co. I’m not averse to some of those options, but putting all our eggs in a small basket can be a bit problematic. We saw the impact of not landing Furcal several years back (Pierre trade). For example, the Nationals are in a “building” mode. Every indication is that Mike Rizzo will listen to almost anything (some obvious exceptions). One name I haven’t seen anyone bring up is Nyjer Morgan. He’s been great for them, but he’s 30. I’d call the Nats up and see what possibilities exist. Morgan’s a colorful personality who has a good glove and enough ability to fill a leadoff role. There’s several other ideas, but as this post is getting long, although I’ll close on several notes.
A. I don’t expect a wild and wacky offseason. Maybe one contract clearing move and one key signing in a best case scenario, along with some smaller moves.
B. My ideal goals this offseason are to improve CF defense and find a leadoff hitter.
C. If we trade a pitching contract, timing is suddenly a big issue with Harden and FA’s. I’m assuming we get enough value to justify a deal, as discussed in the other thread. But … there are options externally that could be explored. Erik Bedard for example (would be interesting if we had 3 Canadians and two guys that pitched north of the border, however brief for Wells). Chien-Ming Wang could be released and that’s a gamble I’d take after watching the Yankees butcher that situation (one of the few things they’ve done wrong in the past year).
by toonsterwu on Sep 18, 2009 1:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of another thought that's been passing through my mind ...
As much as he was ridiculed this year, I’m really not against dealing for Luis Castillo as a top of the order bat, assuming the Mets will take a full contract return without us having to eat any money. Luis is still a solid top of the order guy that has good discipline, takes walks, and can still steal a base or two (16 this year). Again, he isn’t ideal, but there really aren’t ideal fixes, IMO, this offseason. Mets were rumored to be talking about wanting to pursue a OF bat and Orlando Hudson (which begs the question of a, how they can afford it, and b, what about the pitching) but leaving the questions aside on viability and feasibility for the Mets, I’d be game to explore a deal built around Bradley for Castillo deal if the Mets fail in their efforts to land their preferred options.
by toonsterwu on Sep 18, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castillo doesn't really have speed any more.
He just turned 34. He does draw a walk or three, but he has no power whatsoever (his SLG is Neifiesque).
We have to do better than other teams’ rejects.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 18, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
again, no ideals really out there
but if we’re talking unloading a contract and getting Luis as a top of the order option for 2/12 versus splurging on a FA for likely much more … I’m not against it if other options fall through.
He’s not my preferred option, to say the least, but the offense needs an upgrade at the top of the order. Luis still does enough of the little things to be capable enough, taking pitches, running the bases fairly well. The team doesn’t need middle of the order slugging. The team doesn’t need a utility infielder like Iwamura.
Not ideal … but there are few ideals out there. I could probably think of several options that I prefer over Luis, but he’s not a bad option relative to contract and team need. His defense is steadily getting worse, but it’s not like some of the FA options out there are great defensively (Hudson is eh … Figgins doesn’t have enough history at 2nd to make a huge assessment, Iwamura is eh as well).
One more comment to make on Iwamura – money is a factor in that situation (IF they let him go … I could see a team offering a trade for him …), but so is the fact that they simply have better options.
One last comment on Castillo – 16 SB’s is fairly solid and he still runs the bases fairly well. I don’t care for Castillo as a top/preferred option, but I certainly would prefer him over some of the options being discussed.
by toonsterwu on Sep 18, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castillo.
He’s due $6M in 10 and 11. The Cubs already have a decent average, good OBP second baseman, marginal base stealing threat who’s much cheaper in Theriot.
If the Cubs are going to dump Bradley, which I don’t agree with, at least fill an area of need.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 18, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
comparing Theriot and Castillo's offense
really only compares the fact that neither have power. Again, I’m not clamoring for Castillo. I guess, in that respect, they are similar, but there are nuanced differences, and enough for me to buy Castillo more as a top of the order player over Theriot, who should hit 8th.
Again, not clamoring for Castillo, but there aren’t many great options for the club out there, and I’m not against adding Castillo relative to some of the names being discussed (namely, Iwamura).
by toonsterwu on Sep 18, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It does occur to me now
Iwamura is coming off a pretty serious knee injury.
by Bradsbeard on Sep 18, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair but
He wasn’t all that different a player before. He’s pretty much at the same level he was the last 2 years, and he’s nearing the age when decline starts to occur. Again … can he start in the league? Sure. What does he add to the Cubs … and does he fill a need? I just don’t see what dimension Iwamura brings that makes this move worthwhile. I don’t think Iwamura is all that different from Theriot. Can you close your eyes and live with one at the top of the order? Sure. You’d like better though.
As noted … at the right price, I’d consider Iwamura, but he’d be way down the list. Furthermore, this presumes that the Rays will let him go, which while likely, isn’t set yet.
by toonsterwu on Sep 18, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any kind of deal...
…would be contingent on a full work up of his knee, but he seems to have completely recovered for all intents and purposes.
Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.
by LeSaboteur on Sep 20, 2009 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
iwamura
this guy has been a valuable part of the rays. the only reason they will let him go is to save money. if they do. the cubs should jump on him. he was actually a very good leadoff hitter for the rays. then you could keep baker or fontenot. i still like fontenot at 2nd and hope he stays.you just have to use him correctly.
by NOMAR on Sep 19, 2009 5:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
again
how’s he a “very good leadoff hitter”? He’s not bad, maybe passable … but somehow he’s become the hot name on this board. Again … ask yourself this … what does he really add to the team? His numbers this year are fairly similar to his past, so injuries can’t be used to explain anything. Aki will take some walks, so again … passable, decent … but good? This is a guy who’s bat is closer to Ryan Theriot than anyone seems willing to acknowledge, dependent upon variables that the batter doesn’t control, at a age (31 next year) where players may start to regress. Outside of the fact that he might save a few dollars, I don’t get what Iwamura adds to the squad. He’s basically a good utility infielder for us. In a different situation, he’s fine as a starter, but … I just don’t see the fit for us.
And again … money is not the only reason they are letting him go. They needed to find a spot for Reid Brignac.
by toonsterwu on Sep 19, 2009 6:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does Cliff Lee...
…have a player option, or club? And what are the chances that the Phillies just say ‘no, thank you’?
Rickey has spoken. Keep the Athletics in Bump City.
by LeSaboteur on Sep 20, 2009 11:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
…but with some expensive clean up on the horizon, I highly doubt the Cubs will be forking over the kind of dough necessary to sign him.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 20, 2009 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Cliff Lee is almost certainly not on the Cubs' agenda...
We have $117 million committed to ten players. Even if we played league minimum players at the other 15 spots (which would mean letting go of Marmol, Theriot, Grabow, Gorzellany, Marshall, Baker, and Fontenot), we’d have a payroll of $125 million. Factoring in several of those guys, we already have a payroll of around $130 million. Unless Ricketts ups the payroll substantially, Hendry is going to have to find a way to shave a lot of payroll in order to add anyone of substance via free agency.
by SouthernCub on Sep 21, 2009 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, and remember...
…even if the payroll remains the same, Ricketts has to pay debt service on 500 mil bucks and that ain’t cheap.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 21, 2009 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs early 2010 lineup...
Fukudome RF
The Riot SS
D Lee 1B
A-Ram 3B
Fox LF
Soriano 2B (yeah 2B, hire Ryno to coach him, he’s gonna be our skipper someday)
Soto C
Speedy Reedy CF
by Fully Kreusened on Sep 26, 2009 8:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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