The intangible made tangible
This is primarily in response to the epic thread where nobody left happy debating the idea of intangibles.
Why do people have to get so angry about this? I don't get it at all.
I am certainly not a sabermagician, and I am likely below average at traditional science and mathematics, but going off of the list that was provided in that post, I will try to provide methods of making the intangible tangible.
* Second efforts
* Heart and Determination
* Work ethic
* Hustle
* Being "clutch"
* Ability to play thru pain
* Mental toughness
* Intelligence
* Ability to be mentally "in the game"
* Maturity / Immaturity
* Team chemistry
* Leadership
* Comfort
* Communication
* Hot/Cold Streaks
You can’t really measure why a player will choose to put in a secondary effort, the player himself can try to put it into words, but it can’t be numerically represented. However, the results of his secondary efforts surely can be quantified.
For example, following an error one can measure how many bases are taken by the batter runner, or any existing runners; or how often an out is recorded on the same play that an error occurred. So if, for example, the standard average is found to be, following an error, .1 outs are recorded on the same play, and 1.5 additional bases are taken by the runners; you can then determine whether or not the player who committed the error made up for his mistake above or below average. If following an error, Player A bears out an average of .32 outs recorded, and .8 additional bases taken, you can then have some statistical input as to any secondary effort Player A is giving following his own fielding error.
So if the league average is - .1 outs and 1.5 additional bases per error
And Player A has stats of - .32 outs and .8 additional bases per error
Then one could come up with a stat that measure his averages in comparison to the rest of the league, and assign Player A a ‘Second Effort’ statistic. Maybe one could say that Player A has a ‘Post Error Out Conversion Over Replacement’ (PEOCOR) of .31, and a ‘Post Error Bases Allowed Over Replacement’ (PEBAOR) of -.7
Heart and Determination & Work Ethic
I’m putting these together as they seem very much in the same vein. No, Heart, Determination, and Work Ethic are not things that can simply be represented by numbers. However, one can view the results by a player, and therefore come up with a statistical correlation.
Say, for example, that the average number of ground balls seen during fielding practice by an NL starting shortstop is 10, and the average number of swings during BP by NL starting shortstops is also 10. And say that Ryan Theriot averages 17.4 groundballs fielded during practice, and averages 23.8 swings during BP.
So the NL average for a starting shortstop would be – 10 GBs and 10 swings
And the averages for Ryan Theriot would be – 17.4 GBs and 23.8 swings
So a stat can be formulated that will measure the supposed work ethic, or determination, of Ryan Theriot. One could then say that Theriot has a ‘Fielding Work Ethic’ (FWE) of 1.74, and a ‘BP Work Ethic’ (BPWE) of 2.38. These numbers won’t tell you how Theriot feels about his work, but it will tell you what the results of his feelings are.
Hustle
A classic example of an intangible. One cannot quantify what it is that makes a player hustle. Why Pete Rose always seemed to give 110% isn’t something that can be statistically represented. However, again, the fruits of his hustling labor can be measured.
Say, for the sake of argument, that Reed Johnson’s fastest time of getting from the batter’s box to first base is 5 seconds. Then measure how fast he gets from the box to first base on average during a game. Say he averages a time of 5.5 seconds from the box to first.
One could then say that Reed Johnson has a ‘Hustle Percentage’ of .900
The same can be measured for going from first to second, first to third, first to home, second to third, second to home, and third to home (all on non homeruns most likely). You can then further analyze his ‘Hustle Percentage’ during singles, doubles, and triples, whether he was hitting them, or he was a runner already on base.
Then a way to measure the impact on the results of his Hustle Percentage of .900, you could then compare him with other players with similar fastest times (the original 5 seconds), and see how many extra infield hits Reed Johnson accrued, or look for a correlation of XBH in relation to a players Hustle Percentage (HP).
Again, this isn’t to say that it explains what it is that makes a player ‘give it his all’ or ‘leave it all out on the field’, but it is totally plausible to be able to quantify the results of his effort.
Being "Clutch"
I was confused to see this item on the list, seeing as there are existing stats that measure this. Again it cannot be numerical ascertained why a player might be more ‘clutch’ than other, more mortal, men. But it can seen which players perform at a higher level in ‘clutch’ opportunities.
Examples:
BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wOBA with RISP
BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wOBA in 1 Run games
BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wOBA in the 7th inning or later
BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wOBA against a pitcher whom they have performed below career averages against in the past
BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wOBA with an 0-2 count
BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wOBA with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs
Percentage of times a player is successful in advancing the runner with nobody out.
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 with RISP
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 in 1 Run games
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 in the 7th inning or later
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 against a hitter whom has performed above their career averages against in the past
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 with a 3-0 count
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 with a 3-1 count
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 with a 3-2 count
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 with an 0-2 count
ERA, ERA+, WHIP, OPP BA, OPP OPS, K/9, BB/9 with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs
Percentage of times an opposing batter is successful in advancing the runner with nobody out.
Ability to Play Thru Pain & Mental Toughness & Ability to be Mentally "In The Game"
I’m grouping these together as they seem extremely closely related. This is where things get a little trickier, as collecting data requires assuming honesty from all related parties. But in the effort of obtaining accurate measurements, it is likely that relying on honesty is the only choice remaining.
After (or before) every game, a player can be surveyed to determine both his mental & emotional state, and his level of physical pain. A player can relay his emotions on a scale of 1-10, 1 being ‘cidal’ (of the ‘sui’ or ‘homi’ varieties), and 10 being ‘capable of cracking the moon with my swing’. And he can also relay his level of pain on a scale of 1-10 as well.
Now, I know some say that you have to take a person’s pain tolerance into account. But the scale would automatically do that. What may feel like a pain level of 2 to Derrek Lee, might be a 6 for me for example. But the amount of pain in relation to what we’re able to cope with, is what is important. It’s like a handicap, if Derrek has a higher pain tolerance than myself, a leg cramp is going to bother him that much less than it would me, despite the fact that if it weren’t for his inherent ability, we’d be in the same amount of pain.
So, if using an Emotional & Mental scale, the average is 5. It can then be calculated, and trends could be identified, of how a player’s performance is altered based his mental or emotional stress level. Say the average deviation from a player’s OPS during a ‘good’ mental and emotional state (say 7-10) is +15%, and the average deviation during a ‘bad’ state (1-3) is -25%, then one could determine such a player to have relatively weak mental strength in regards to allowing his thoughts and feelings affect his level of play. Whereas a player who shows minimal deviation from his average OPS regardless of his Emotional & Mental state, can be said to have very strong constitution in regards to keeping his head in the game.
The same conclusions can be drawn from the pain survey. If Derrek Lee see’s a dip of only -5% when he’s playing with a high level of pain (7-10), then one could likely conclude that Derrek Lee is able to perform at a relatively normal level even when in physical pain, and that it is worthwhile for him to stay in the lineup even if he’s banged up.
Intelligence
Again, I don’t know why this is listed as there is already such a thing as an Intelligence Quotient. However, I shall assume that this means baseball intelligence.
Now this is something that I don’t know if it can be objectively quantified based on analysis of play. I could say that we could count up the number of ‘boneheaded’ plays in relation to the league average, but ‘boneheaded’ is a completely subjective concept. However, it is very likely that it could be done, seeing as errors are often quite subjective as well, so if the Error is an acceptable stat, then it could very well be that a ‘Boneheaded Mistake’ (BM) stat could become accepted.
But just the same as there are tests to measure one’s IQ, there can be an exam to measure baseball IQ. It could involve a written answer portion, a portion where a player stands in a batting cage and tries to identify what type of pitch is being thrown based on the rotation, and whether or not it will end up in the strike zone. A section of the test could be on the field, where it can be seen how a player responds in a rundown situation, or if he correctly breaks to cover the bag on a stolen base attempt or holds his position, etc.
Now, this idea is completely impractical, but it demonstrates that such a thing as baseball IQ can be measured if someone really wanted to go through the painstakingly ridiculous process of administering tests.
Maturity / Immaturity
To me, this feels like something that doesn’t need to be quantified. It is, in and of itself, truly intangible, as it is witnessing a player’s behavior. This is again something that can only be measured via survey, and not by the player himself. However, that does not mean we can’t poll every player and coach the player has shared a clubhouse with and get their opinion of the player’s maturity level. So using the 1-10 scale, it could likely be determined what a player’s ‘Perceived Maturity’ level is, but that’s probably as close as you can get.
Team chemistry & Leadership
This is the one I was looking forward to the most. We may never be able to completely describe why a player has an impact on those around him, but it can certainly be determined whether or not the play by his teammates is actually being affected.
This, once again, would rely heavily on the use of surveys. Say that every player in MLB was polled about every other player in MLB. And that on a scale of 1-10, they decided how ‘good of a clubhouse guy’ such a player is. And then that data was taken, and averages were drawn out to determine a player’s ‘Clubhouse Popularity Quotient'. In the interest of using current BCB rhetoric, I will use DeRosa and Bradley as examples.
Say for the sake of argument that DeRosa yielded a CPQ of 7.8, and Bradley was found to have a CPQ of 3.6. Now, we can take that information and see what kind of effect their presence in a clubhouse had on their teammates performance.
So we look at every single player that DeRosa has ever shared a clubhouse with. And over the course of their careers, all those players (position only) had an average OPS of .764. We can then look at the splits to see how they were effected by DeRosa’s presence in the locker room. So if when DeRosa was a current teammate, that OPS average rose to .798, and when he wasn’t a teammate, that OPS average dropped to .744, we can clearly see that, for whatever reason, when a player shared space with DeRosa, typically their performance got a boost.
So then this data can be used to formulate DeRosa’s ‘Offensive Performance Influence’ as being .034, to go along with his 7.8 CPQ
And say that the stats bared that Bradley had an ‘Offensive Performance Influence’ of -.008, to go along with his 3.6 CPQ.
So you can then try to identify trends with CPQ, seeing if players with a high CPQ tend to yield a higher OPI. And the CPQ can be further used to identify increases in teammates’ Fielding Work Ethic (FWE), BP Work Ethic (BPWE), Hustle Percentage (HP), or Post Error Out Conversion Over Replacement (PEOCOR) and Post Error Bases Allowed Over Replacement (PEBAOR). Thereby concluding exactly what sort of influence a player has on his teammates, and whether or not a popular player truly makes a big of a difference as we fans sometimes think.
Comfort
This seems entirely related to a player’s clubhouse presence. If a player is comfortable, certainly it will show by his teammates’ response to him. And if he isn’t, well what does it matter so long as he is still able to produce, and it doesn’t effect him enough to show up on his mental and emotional stress surveys.
Communication
This seems two fold.
1. Measuring a player’s communication with his teammates.
2. Measuring a player’s communication with his coaches.
The first seems like it would generally be covered, again, by his overall clubhouse presence. I’d imagine that if a player generally didn’t communicate with his teammates, he’d be given a neutral or negative Clubhouse Popularity Quotient.
The second is something that is harder to identify unless you wanted to cross the ludicrous boundary of ‘Words Spoken With Hitting Coach Over Replacement' (WSWHCOR) . So I think I’d acquiesce to the idea that good communication with the coaching staff is likely something that cannot be measured. However, one can calculate how often a player tells the coaching staff he is injured immediately as opposed to a player telling the staff he was injured months prior. But again, it would be so difficult to quantify.
Hot/Cold Streaks
This is another that I just don’t understand how it can be considered an intangible, seeing as hot and cold streaks are so easily identified.
However, explaining how or why such streaks occur is likely far more difficult.
Using previously described stats and surveys, one could probably find some sort of correlation between a players mental and emotional state, his pain level, and/or any positive or negative clubhouse presences, and his level of play on the field.
For example, if a player or players on a team start a really hot streak directly following a trade, perhaps that newly acquired player has a high OPI.
Or maybe when Soriano goes on one of his cold streaks there is some correlation between his performance and his mood, or his BP Work Ethic.
But certainly there are times when streaks occur simply out of randomness, that’s why a player who hits .333 won’t always go 1 for 3 in a game, sometimes he’ll hit .120, and others he’ll with .540, that’s just the way it works.
So, I think that most of these 'intangibles' are actually measurable, but the practical application of the majority of these statistics is so absurdly ludicrous that they will likely never be employed. I don't like the sentiment that 'stats are everything, everything else is religion', but at the same time, a lot of what is perceived as immeasurable, is often quite the opposite.
I see the correlation between Koyie Hill starting games, and the subsequent team record, but if there isn't some sort of statistical analysis that shows that the pitchers performed better throwing to him than to Soto, or that the team OPS rose when Koyie started, then it can't really be assumed to be a direct correlation of cause and effect as much as it can be chalked up to simple coincidence. However, I would be one who would insist on riding out that coincidence until it appeared to 'lose it's magic' so to speak, but I wouldn't be one to assume that Koyie is superior to Geo as a result.
Can't we all just get along?
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Comments
Believe it or not, I agree.
This paragraph, I think, sums it up best:
I see the correlation between Koyie Hill starting games, and the subsequent team record, but if there isn’t some sort of statistical analysis that shows that the pitchers performed better throwing to him than to Soto, or that the team OPS rose when Koyie started, then it can’t really be assumed to be a direct correlation of cause and effect as much as it can be chalked up to simple coincidence. However, I would be one who would insist on riding out that coincidence until it appeared to ‘lose it’s magic’ so to speak, but I wouldn’t be one to assume that Koyie is superior to Geo as a result.
Exactly. No one is saying Hill is “better” than Geo — clearly, he’s not. However, for a time the team was winning with him starting — so why not go with that, even if it’s no more than a hunch, or coincidence, or any way you’d like to put it, until it runs its course.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 23, 2009 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't agree with that Al
Maybe it’s a matter of my statistical background, but the error bars on team performance are amazing in a 2 week period. Meaning that teams are subject to go on random hot or cold streaks for no reason, all of the time. Even you have to admit that, it’s simply a matter of timing (or luck, in other words) most of the time, and assigning that to a specific cause (in this case a player) seems foolish.
Maybe, 1 out of every 10 times a team goes on a hot streak it’s partially because an external cause (which could be a player, a broadcaster, a fan in the stands) influences the rest of the team to play better. However, that influence is probably very small, and it may even only be present 1 out of every 10 times or a similarily small number.
If every manager went with the “hot hand”, he would be wrong most of the time. In most cases, like wearing your socks inside out, or jumping over the lines, it has no downside, so there is no point in not doing so. However, in the case that you are referencing (playing Koyie Hill more than his stats would dictate because the team has played well with him in the game), you could end up playing an inferior player that may negatively affect your team in the short and long run.
I guess, to summarize, we all recognize that intangibles play a role in team performance; however, the effect is SO hard to detect, and even harder to measure, that is basically becomes Chrystal ball work.
That’s not how you should manage a team. If you go by the probabilities, it may be boring and have less chance for upside, but I guarantee you that the manager who does that will have more success than they one who goes by his gut.
Anyway, it’s good that we at least have laid out our direct arguments, instead of that talking past each other crap in the last thread.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 23, 2009 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Let me ask you a question, then...
… continuing something you asked me in that long other thread, because it might get lost in there.
You asked me if, in analyzing “Player A” and “Player B”, how I would decide whether to have one on my team or not (we were sort of discussing Milton Bradley and Vernon Wells there, IIRC).
So I put it to you: you are considering two free agents for your team, Player C and Player D. Player C is statistically 3 WAR better than Player D and has been so throughout his career.
But Player C is a noted PITA and has alienated his teammates at every stop he’s made in the major leagues.
Would you always take player C anyway for your team?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you're not asking me, but I'm a bit of a sabermagician, too...
3 wins in a season is a huge difference for one player over another. Now it’s important to understand what WAR means. It isn’t a measure of a player’s talent, it’s a measure of his results. And the “AR” part means “above replacement” — replacement level is the baseline that each is compared to. When comparing players against eachother the baseline is unnecessary. So you can just say player C has performed at 3 “wins” better than player D per season, consistently, over their respective careers. That sounds a little presumptuous, ‘eh? Anyway, you can never know how players will perform against eachother in a given year, you can only project. If your best scouting, statistical analysis, and tarot card reading suggests that player C has a very high chance of performing that much better than player D, and all other things are equal (contracts are a big one here, so let’s say we’re given a free-agent choice between them) except for player C’s bad attitude, and either player, if signed, would definitely take over a starting role on my team, player C would certainly start out with a big advantage. How much I’d take into account his attitude problem would depend on some things.
1. How prepared my team is to absorb his attitude. If many of our players, including our stars, are strong veteran leaders, and we have a manager with experience dealing successfully with big egos and malcontents, that minimizes the impact of player C’s attitude. If we have bigger stars than player C that helps, too. If we have a loose and cohesive clubhouse that might make C less likely to alienate people.
2. What my team’s goals are. If my team is looking to contend right now player C’s performance on the field is really important, and there’s a good chance that if we’re winning player C will be happier. If my team is the Pittsburgh Pirates, the difference between a 63-win and a 66-win season in 2010 isn’t very important, and if I’m going to sign a veteran free-agent to start for me (say there’s nobody in my system that can play an important defensive position at a major-league level… such a team is unlikely to make a big FA splash anyway) the impact he has on the rest of the clubhouse is more important. If player D helps teach the young guys to play better, smarter, and tougher, and player C teaches them to mouth off and give up, I’d rather have D.
3. What is the external pressure level? I’m talking about fans and media. I’m modeling player C’s particular attitude problems after Bradley here… if player C is a guy that can’t handle booing and tough media scrutiny, then the degree to which those factors exist in your city is important.
I guess if I was running the LA Angels I’d probably take player C. And if I was running the Pirates and couldn’t find anyone worth playing in-system, player D.
by aldimond on Sep 24, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a very reasonable response.
And the key is point #3. I suspect if Jim Hendry had looked into Milton’s history, his personality (which Milton himself has said is very private and not wanting attention drawn to himself), and those other external factors you cite, he’d never have signed him, because the high profile of the Cubs and their fanbase likely doomed this signing to failure from the day it was made, no matter how good his production appeared at the time.
Thus, you are, I believe, confirming that you MUST take these external factors into account.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Al,
I think he is, but this is where tangible and intangible deviate. Stats focused would point to the facts and this being measurable and a predictible outcome. I don’t believe this type of evaluation is as simple as the example.
If Hendry believed MB had matured, If Hendry believed the current clubhouse had leaders and personalities who would compliment MB and not hinder, if MB would produce as advertised, If the media would treat MB as just another player, if MB would play for Lou.
That Hendry was wrong on all counts falls on the front office for projecting the wrong outcome by using inaccurate, but believed data.
I still believe team chemistry is so variable over who will mesh with whomever that the soup can be ruined by the least obvious additions or subtractions, however, my theory is also that big ticket free agents carry the most weight and need to be scrutinized accordingly.
Hey Jim, make a new soup.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 24, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's an awful lot of if's...
… and if you have that many, you’d have to start thinking to yourself, “Hey, maybe too many things have to go right for this to work.”
Right?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
That many variables move a players impact away from tangible to intangible, but it’s still reliant on the front office taking the avaialble facts and making good decisions.
It’s one thing to play a hunch or take a flyer on a cheap veteran (Jim Edmunds, Ryan Freel, BJ Ryan), quite another to put it all on green with a big ticket FA. Let alone risk it all three years in a row.
I haven’t judged Hendry on any single decision or signing. Not Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley, Gathright, Freel, DeRosa, Wood, Gregg, Marquis, Vizcaino, Eyre, Howry, Miles, Harden, Lilly, Gaudin, Heilman, Wuertz, Pie, et al.
However, in the aggregate, there appears to be too much flailing and high risk low reward in the Cubs front office. The character/talent selection is in the "this will be a great signing if {player name} {meets/exceeds} his {prior/career year}.
I expect your can-o-worms to feature our GM prominantly. In his tenure he’s made some great moves that led to 2003 and last years regular season. I don’t believe great moves earlier in the decade grant a lifetime pass.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 24, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To expand on what you said...
…I believe Hendry should be held accountable for two basic things:
14 years involvment with player development with a boatload of bad results (poor scouting, player development, evluating what you have, etc.).
Very poor roster selection for most of Hendry’s 7 year tenure as GM. People have to remember, this isn’t the NFL draft where you go after the best available player, you need to go after the player that fits your needs. Hendry’s judgment here has left a lot to be desired since his moves in 03.
Hendry will be back in 2010, and I don’t have a problem with that. With that said, I do believe the organization needs a top level baseball mind that can make final judgements in areas were Hendry has struggled.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 24, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The weird thing is...
… this past offseason they did, in effect, set out to get that player who “fit their need”.
The problem is, they chose the wrong “need” and then picked the wrong player to fill it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't say much...
…about their decision making, does it?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 24, 2009 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Er.. most of the time
Probably in 95% of the cases.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't consider intangibles at all when making decisions
There are a couple of reasons for this:
1) I have absolutely no idea how much intangibles affect team performance. Absolutely no idea. I can guess, but it would be just that, a guess. I don’t think that you do either. It could be the guy who rapes puppies only subtracts 1 win from his team. It could also be 5, or even zero. Hell, it could even be a positive impact as it would inspire the rest of the team to rally against a common enemy and play better. The point is that we have no idea how much of effect they have.
2) It’s very hard to judge which players have the most intangibles. A LOT of it is media perception, and because we don’t know how other players feel about each player (except in some cases like with Milton), we have rely on what the media says to guage which players have the most intangibles.
Stats, we know. We can reasonably estimate how a player will contribute to his teams run scoring based on his stats. It relies on science and math and has been tested and found to be reasonably accurate. Intangibles are a whole nother story; they are basically chrystal ball work.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are absolutely right when you say...
… that statistics are what we know. You can easily judge a player comparing his numbers in various categories, be they traditional numbers or advanced metrics.
I agree that judging on intangibles is not a science; it is guesswork, a hunch, or going on your feelings. I am arguing that such things do have a place in putting together a baseball team.
You & I have to rely on media reports to know these things about players, because we do not know the players personally nor do we likely know anyone who does. However, a baseball GM does (or should) know these individuals or be able to get good information about them that is not available to the general public.
In that sense, if I am a baseball GM trying to decide on whether to sign a player, I’d consider BOTH things. That was the question I asked you. I accept your response that you’d go with stats 95% of the time. I wouldn’t. Thus we would take different approaches in building a team.
Only when that team takes the field would we find out whose approach was the winning one.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Excellent response Al, rec'd
I agree with everything you said here, EXCEPT (sorry) for the last line:
Only when that team takes the field would we find out whose approach was the winning one.
There is definitely a cause and effect issue here. Teams can definitely get lucky statistically, as we know. I would also argue that teams get unlucky intangible wise.
I agree that there is definitely a legitimate debate over how much intangibles should be considered; however, I don’t agree that a teams record at the end of the year will reflect who made the “right decision”
Other than that, spot on. You summarized this nicely.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, one more point
Is that while we both differ on how much intangibles play a role in baseball, we both agree that they do make a difference, but also, that’s it’s very hard to tell how much (even if you are a GM who is in close proximity to the players).
That’s the only reason I think that stats are more important. Not because they are actually more important (I think they are, but that’s open for debate), but it’s that they are SO much easier to project and quantify than intangibles, that they should be weighted higher.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that luck plays a role...
… both statistically, and in game situations (i.e. a ball going just fair or just foul; winning teams seem to have more luck in getting the ball to bounce their way).
And it may be hard to quantify that luck, or other intangibles, but if I’m a GM paying actual human beings millions of dollars to play baseball for me, I have to consider the human factors, because projections (as you point out) aren’t alwys accurate.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, that's not what I'm trying to say
I’m saying that the teams final record isn’t going to reflect how good the team is (by that I mean their combination of stats AND intnagibles) because both stats and intangibles can be influenced by luck over a full season.
For example, say Bradley has been a huge dick this year, but for whatever reason, the team won 100 games. I would argue that they got lucky both in stats and in the effect that intangibles have.
I’m saying that I agree that stats and intangibles both play a role in projection how good a team will be; however, using the final record as the final determination of how good that team actually was, isn’t good.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Statistically speaking, you'd be right.
But any fans of that 100-win team really wouldn’t care, would they?
(Unless they flamed out in the playoffs, of course. Sigh.)
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't worry
VEP might just yet get to live that. LOL!
by socalbob on Sep 24, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, they wouldn't care
But basing decisions off of who wins the games can be kinda foolish.
A perfect example of that is the Cubs last year. During the regular season, all evidence suggested that they were a good team (although probably not as good as their record, but I digress). They had great stats, and all of their players meshed well together.
However, they got swept in the playoffs, in all likelihood, because they simply played poorly in 3 games. In my opinion, that is pretty much just bad luck – you can’t really control when your players get hot or cold.
However, Hendry over-interpreted those 3 losses, and broke up the team to scratch up enough money to sign a “lefty bat” who he deemed was the main reason for their failure in the playoffs.
You have to admit that was a silly overreaction on Hendry’s part based almost entirely on the outcomes of 3 games.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially because we were unlikely to get a better LH bat than Edmonds had been.
Getting more production from the left side in 2009 was going to be difficult no matter what, as we were jettisoning a LHB CF who hit .260-.370-.570 with 19 HR and 49 RBI in half a season.
If the thought process was “we need substantially more LH production in 2009 than we had at the end of 2008, despite the fact that we are cutting Edmonds loose”, the premise was flawed from the start.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 24, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly correct, it was an overreaction, and for the wrong reasons.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right on!!!
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 24, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, I don't see it as a "stats vs. intangibles" thing.
I lump intangibles with a player’s skills (broadly defined), and say that those things, in the specific contexts that a player has played in, have produced results that are the player’s stats.
For whatever reason, player C, despite having a track record of being a jerk, has consistently overcome this by outperforming player d by a LOT (here we’re not talking about Bradley and Wells, as Bradley is hard to project due to injury risk and Wells has been very good in the past). So if there’s no reason to believe that player C’s attitude would be a significantly bigger detriment to his and the team’s play with my team than his past ones, and if I’m expecting my team to be competitive (so that his extra value on the field is meaningful) player C is probably my choice also. That judgment is similar in character to, say, projecting performance based on seasons played at pre-humidor Coors Field. You can’t just apply a park factor and be done with it — not if you really care about being right about a particular player, at least. You have to try to work out some of the underlying mechanics behind the player’s performance and determine how they’d be affected in a different environment. Some hitters with marginal fly-ball power might legitimately hit two or three times as many homers at Coors (maybe from 5 home HRs per year to 10-15), and see their batting averages rise as outs turn into HRs; guys that tend to hit longer homers and line-drive hitters would see smaller improvements.
by aldimond on Sep 24, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not talking about how intangibles helps his performance
I’m talking about how his intangibles affect his teammates performance. So is Al, I assume.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because you are looking for that one elite on field talent to push you
over the top that year?
Is that possible clubhouse/off field problem worth a multi-year deal beyond the target period without having established if they fit? How many years assuming the player is under 32 and in good shape and demands top tier money?
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 24, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm curious - would you feel the same way if we're talking about Hoffpauir and Lee?
What if Hoffpauir had gotten more than just 8 starts at 1B back in April/May when Lee was struggling/hurt. And what if the Cubs had won some more games back then. Would you have been willing to ride the Hoffpauir train until the magic had run its course?
It’s okay to say yes – it doesn’t mean that you think Hoffpauir is “better” than Lee. ;-)
But if you say no, can you explain why this scenario would be different from Soto/Hill? Is it just the veteran thing or is there something more?
And my apologies if the Hoff/Lee thing was covered in the previous post – I still haven’t summoned up enough courage to go in there yet.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Sep 23, 2009 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a hunch
that most older managers go by instinct rather than probability other than the ever dominant lefty-righty book. That might explain why Colvin was jumped into #2 tonight even though he was doing well down in the lineup.
If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.
by tharr on Sep 23, 2009 10:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Unless, of course you are
Tony La Russa.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Sep 25, 2009 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was really well done...
and rec’d.
by shawndgoldman on Sep 23, 2009 10:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Impressive.
I am a person who believes in the intangibles.
Who knows how much Dempsters performance has been altered by the health of his child. This is something that cannot be measured or graphed.
Did Miltons negative prescence cause any clubhouse disharmony that led to the field? Hell I don’t know, but it could of.
Interesting read, thanks.
by Grockcubs on Sep 23, 2009 11:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to get into it again...
… but the whole point is that these things could be measured. Whether people agree on how the measurement is conducted and whether or not the effort of measuring is worth the reward is what is up for debate.
That’s probably where the middle ground lies. Being a math person myself, I agree with the overall concept of what Wreckard, Harry and Shawn were saying in the previous post. Some people borderline dismissed the scientific method in the previous post, which I just can’t reconcile. However, Al’s point made towards the end is also spot on (forgive my paraphrasing Al): for the most part the question is “so what?” Why would you even want to go to the trouble?
Whether you subscribe to the “I just wanna relax and watch baseball” notion or the “The cost/reward ratio of such an exercise makes is too high” notion (both perfectly acceptable), we end up in the same place… which is why no one (well, practically no one) is out there measuring the effect that maturity or “having your head in the game” has on baseball.
I don't care how long you've been around, you'll never see it all.
by Dou on Sep 24, 2009 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want my position to be seen as "so what?"
Obviously, there is value in measuring baseball performance; I do know we have learned much over the last 20-25 years, when things that were never measured before are now known. I acknowledge the usefulness of such measurement in analyzing baseball players and do NOT in any way dismiss the scientific methods use.
I think both ways — “using your head” and “mathematical/scientific analysis” are useful, and using them together is clearly the best way to go.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You continued your discussion with vivaelpujols here...
… when I was trying to summarize yesterday’s massive post and the topics presented on this one.
The “so what” is not meant to be dismissive of science and it’s applications, it’s an argument on the particular benefit gained from trying to go through the ordeal of measuring the influence of a player’s maturity (for example) on a baseball outcome.
As I said, forgive my paraphrasing… but if you don’t want it to be characterized as your position then I’ll make it mine. So what if we could potentially measure it… it’s likely not worth the trouble. We can probably all agree on that.
I don't care how long you've been around, you'll never see it all.
by Dou on Sep 24, 2009 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see what you mean now.
Yes, I’d agree with that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see the difference between many intangible and non-intangible skills.
Using our existing, result-based stats you can’t isolate heart. You also can’t isolate speed. You can’t isolate maturity, and you can’t isolate strength. You can’t isolate “having your head in the game”, knowledge of positioning, eyesight, or lateral quickness. People guess at these things based on results and observations. There’s no question who stole the most bases of all time. But was Rickey the fastest? I bet I know what Rickey thinks. But I’m not sure, myself. There was at least one team that used a track star, mostly as a pinch-runner. He wasn’t all that good at baseball, but he must have been really fast.
I think sometimes the way that people that understand these things talk about them confuses the issue. We might say that Rickey had great on-base skills. There is a large group of skills and approaches that can help a player get on base, and we aren’t trying to isolate and particular one in Rickey’s game. Rickey drew a ton of walks. Was Rickey more patient than Bonds (who drew more walks)? Than Williams (who drew fewer)? Can we isolate patience from all the other things that cause players to draw walks? Only if we define patience in some hackneyed way. If we can come up with a combination of in-zone and out-of-zone swing percentages that we call “patience” that doesn’t answer the question — it only helps us count the results with more granularity, and maybe gives us something to help project future performance.
One of the major tasks of scouts is to grade the various skills of minor-leaguers and determine how they’ll translate to the major leagues. Two players that put up very similar batting lines at AAA could do so for very different reasons, and one might have a skill-set that works better than the other at the higher level of play. Two players with a lot of things in common physically and mentally could get very different results for a variety of reasons. That, to me, is the important split. Not tangible vs. intangible. Skills vs. results. They both tell us things, but in different ways.
by aldimond on Sep 24, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No problem...
… I probably wasn’t clear enough.
Now while it probably doesn’t make sense to try to isolate maturity and calculate it’s influence for baseball purposes, it’s clear that it does have some influence and knowing that alone should be good enough to use it in the decision making process.
Although I don’t know Player A’s “maturity quotient” (however we want to call it), I know based on pure observation that he’s displayed what I would deem considerable immaturity in the past… so, should I really sign him to play a central role in my team?
(Here’s where “hunch” or “instinct” in my opinion – and to your point – is a better indicator than anything else… yet also where Jim failed miserably).
I don't care how long you've been around, you'll never see it all.
by Dou on Sep 24, 2009 8:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Oops, meant to be a reply to your reply Al...
I don't care how long you've been around, you'll never see it all.
by Dou on Sep 24, 2009 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No worries.
I agree with your analysis.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said something similar in that other thread yesterday:
At a certain point, wouldn’t you agree, quantifying these things becomes something of a frivolous exercise? That you are spending more time asking questions of every player after every at bat, measuring wind speed with every pitch, figuring out the fart factor of every pregame meal, than is necessary, as you could likely reach the same conclusion just by watching?
In a mad effort to quantify everything, to make these intangibles in to something that can be measured, aren’t you just spinning your wheels vs sitting there and watching for a bit?
My point being, the stats have a use, but at some point the law of diminishing marginal returns and the law of increasing relative cost come in to play. I’m sure you could, eventually, figure out a way to quantify everything with enough regression. But just observing would likely get similar results with far less effort.
Hence, what many of us have been saying (and have been blasted for saying) all along: the stats are great, we love them, they are useful… but sometimes not the best way to measure certain elements.
Dum spiro spero…
Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Sep 24, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Figuring out the fart factor of every pregame meal...
… would not only be a gargantuan effort but also downright unpleasant. A statistics + psychology problem gets somewhat resolved by… economics!
Sorry I missed that post, must have gotten lost among the 500 others… but yes, we are saying the same thing.
I don't care how long you've been around, you'll never see it all.
by Dou on Sep 24, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I took a good deal of stat classes in college (two years ago now... damn!)...
… but econ was my forte. And i think it is safe to say that just like figuring out the fart factor of every pregame meal, this whole debate has well passed the point of diminishing returns.
Dum spiro spero…
Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Sep 24, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice work. I buy into the concept of measurable intangibles for purposes
of prediction in most of these examples. The one I believe to be a wild card is that of team chemistry and it’s been bugging me all night.
Just because some player has a high ratio of douchebaggery with one club (Palmiero or Manny with Cubs and Red Sox respetively) doesn’t make the predictor that they will crater the clubhouse of their next team (see Rangers and Dodgers).
The example values given above of:
DeRosa yielded a CPQ of 7.8, and Bradley was found to have a CPQ of 3.6
may in reality be altered by the presence of another player. Say for example Z is a 5.0 in a clubhouse with both DeRosa and Bradley. Subtracting Z may raise Bradley to a 6.0 if MB was at odds with Z, but reduce DeRosa to a 3.0 if he and Z were best buddies. Maybe one player is catting around with another players girlfriend, is ones sisters ex-boyfriend, etc.
Further, taking a player with the history of being a great teammate, Al’s Kevin Millar :), and putting him on a team may make things worse if he’s having marital problems, nearing the end of his career, brooding over not starting, even though his history is as the hot stove example of how a great teammate should appear.
The results of an individuals impact on team chemistry in a particular clubhouse are very tangible and visible through offensive and defensive statistics, interviews with other players, that player, and the manager. After those instances occur. That Sammy Sosa was feared and disliked is evident from the various stories related to his lack of empathy for his teammates in use of his boom box and their enduring the noise, even when he’s not in the clubhouse.
The combination of socio-economic, cultural, religious, racial, and language barriers in an MLB clubhouse appear greater than the other major sports with more countries represented. Football is mostly U.S., Hockey is mostly Canada, US, Europe, Russia, NBA is mostly US with some Europe. I may not have list all, but you get my point.
With MB, Hendry acquired the best fantasy baseball player for offense and defense available for RF with a LH bat, on paper. The examples of Sosa, Bradley, Kent, Bonds only prove to me that GM’s need to consider more than last years offensive/defensive statistics when finalizing a roster. The organization has, usually years of, anecdotal experience of the guys through the minors. It’s the Free Agents and trades that are the biggest question marks, expecially the blockbusters.
Is MB’s failure in Chicago tangible, hell yes. Is it a predictor that he can’t succeed in another clubhouse. Not necessarily. The other clubhouse will be comprised of different players, manager & GM. They may get him and he may get them. See Phil, Jordan and the Worm for further study.
Obviously, the GM needs audit every player to predict their ability to co-exist with preference for raising the level of play of all around.
Anyone have any ideas to predict, before said free agent/trade hits the clubhouse, how the CPQ of that player will rise/fall or how that player will impact the CPQ of another player? In this case the result is measurable, but using the measurement to project seems to have too many variables.
Whew. Sorry for the rant.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 24, 2009 8:51 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
You're right that different players can do well on different teams...
… after failing in one place. Perfect example: A.J. Pierzynski. He was apparently detested in his one year in San Francisco, but was a great success with the White Sox.
I’m not so sure that MB can. He’s apparently burned bridges just about everywhere he’s been.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair Enough
I thought of the idea that players might effect other players CPQ. That perhaps, on his own, DeRosa is relatively neutral in the clubhouse, but when you add Dempster to DeRosa, he yields a 7.8.
But a CPQ should still generally give a good guideline as to a players popularity. Sure, DeRosa might have been more popular in Chicago’s clubhouse than in Atlanta’s, but we’re also measuring the averages here, so the data from Atlanta is equally valid.
I should also note that while it may be useful in identifying trends, it cannot possibly deduce why certain players gel together. Something like a CPQ could be very useful as a guide, but it really depends on some variables that aren’t really measurable. Maybe if a guy who loves cats enters a clubhouse where the players all love dogs he will hurt the team chemistry despite an 8.2 CPQ.
It would also be interesting to see who amongst players seemed to be immune to the influence of teammates. If you have 4 or 5 position players on your active roster who have seen little to no offensive increase with the presence of even the most highly popular players, then adding a player whom has a high CPQ and OPI might not be worth it. Whereas if much of your team seems to be heavily influenced by a teammates presence, it would probably be worth acquiring a player with a healthy OPI, even if his own offensive numbers weren’t any good.
by WittyUserName on Sep 24, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa in Atlanta is in interesting example.
My assumption is that certain players CPQ have weight.
DeRosa in Atlanta, like Fox in Chicago was a young guy trying to carve out a position and an everyday niche. His CPQ may have been much higher than Javy Lopez, but Javy was the everyday starting catcher and may have had a greater impact, whether positive or negative.
Another example I’ve thought of is Jeter. His CPQ may peg the chart in the NYY clubhouse on past success, work ethic, and leadership, but elsewhere he may be viewed as an overrated prima-donna. Dropping him in the middle of a new environment may rip a clubhouse apart rather than bring it together with perceived leadership. Existing leaders may resent his arrival, press, and the rest.
I guess I grow more and more convinced MacPhail and now Hendry pay more attention to getting the most PR from their FA budget and prior years numbers by signing the big ticket name who believes to have proven themselves rather than a less expensive player with huge upside and something to prove.
Is it fair to assume a player with something to prove would be less prima donna and trying to fit in and excel? If so, combine this with lower payroll cost and flexibility to amend if it doesn’t pan out and I may no longer advocate filling any need with the top tier free agents other than the “single player to get over the hump.”
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 24, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting that you mention DeRosa in Atlanta.
When DeRo signed with the Cubs, one of the factors he mentioned was the enthusiasm and atmosphere of the crowds at Wrigley he saw during the 2003 playoffs. So more than three years later, when he went to free agency, the Cubs were his first choice.
How do you measure that sort of desire?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That response makes sense to me.
He was with the Rangers as a super sub and saw an opportunity to play in a storied park, for a fan base he saw at it’s absolute best during the Atlanta series in ’03, and a chance to be an everyday second baseman.
I guess I don’t see how that desire translates to the field or clubhouse and is related to desire on the field.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 24, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's not what I was posting about.
That’s something that resides within the individual. Maybe he saw his personality meshing well with those fans. That, at least, turned out to be true.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desire
Would it be equal to the desire that kept Torii Hunter from wanting to sign with the Cubs because of the things he heard about the fans?
by VaJaMan on Sep 24, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not the main reason Hunter didn't want to come to the Cubs.
From what I heard, he didn’t want to play with the Wrigley brick wall behind him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
From what I read
Torii included the Cubs in his no-trade list due to the reputation of Cub fans.
by VaJaMan on Sep 24, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
he was quoted saying as much
by CalCalender on Sep 24, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A year after DeRosa left Atlanta, the string of division titles ended.
Coincidence? Well, yeah. probably.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Sep 24, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
A year after DeRosa left Chicago, the string of division titles ended.
Coincidence? Well, yeah. Probably.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A year after Lou lost the fire in his belly, the string of division titles eneded
Coincidence? Well, yeah. Probably.
by socalbob on Sep 24, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A year after Aaron Miles was signed by the Cubs, the string of division titles ended
Coincidence? Absolutely not.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A year after Milton Bradley was signed by the Cubs...
…. no, wait. I think I won’t go there.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well played Al and VEP!
I got a good chuckle from these
by socalbob on Sep 25, 2009 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, of course
The string teams making the post-season with Jason Marquis on their roster….continues….
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Sep 25, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This should have been a FanShot
by GoBackToSchaumburg on Sep 24, 2009 11:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
All very interesting stuff.
In the never-ending debate between sabermetrics and stats on one side, and hunches, past experience, and accepted baseball “wisdom” on the other side, I rank somewhere in the middle, but probably closer to the “hunches” side. Although I’m not really a “numbers guy”, I realize that the numerous stats and sabermetrics in general are ver useful, and I don’t dismiss them in any way.
One subject that I have literally lost sleep over, however, is the one thing that makes playing for the Cubs unique from every other team in baseball. The 100-year drought, and the never-ending pressure that it creates no matter how much players try to downplay it. Just playing in a major market like Chicago, in the fishbowl environment of Wrigley Field with a huge media contingent and a nationwide following of passionate fans would be enough, but players have to fight against 100 years of history as well. We saw that in the ‘08 playoffs, where guys were trying so hard to fight against that history that they could not do the most basic things like throw a strike or field a ground ball. This pressure will only get worse with each passing year, and it’s going to take a special group of guys to be able to look 100 years of history in the face, give it all the finger, and go out and get the job done. That’s certainly not the only intangible I look at, but it’s the one I think about the most. How are Cubs newcomers going to be able to handle that? Which begs the question, would you rather have a group of guys who know Cubs history and “get it”, as we often say, a la DeRosa, Grace, or Girardi? Or would you rather have a group of guys who are ignorant of Cubs history and tradition and could not care less about it, therefore feel no historical pressure? I have thought long and hard about this over the years and still can’t come up with a definitive answer.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
by ctcoff99 on Sep 24, 2009 2:15 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
I want guy who can handle the spotlight of multiple papers, blogs, and
sports radio outlets focused on their every move. Guys like DeRosa, Lee, Dempster, Lilly, Ramirez who produce even when the pressure is on. Guys that wilt, complain, and detract from a successful franchise are not wanted. LaTroy, T. Hundley, McGriff, Freel, Bradley, are free to go.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Sep 24, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True....
but all the players you mentioned are guys that we know after the fact whether they can or can’t handle it. I guess my question, to which there really is no definitive answer, is “is it possible to gauge beforehand whether or not a guy will be able to handle all things Cubdom?” For example, let’s say the Cubs are going to try to sign Chone Figgins this offseason. Now he has played in a major market in L.A., but playing for the LA Angels is nothing like playing for the Cubs. I mean, it’s night and day different. So who’s to say he won’t wilt under the pressure of playing every day at Wrigley. And yet, if you had a chance to sign him, knowing our needs for next year, would anyone pass on him?
To me, if I remember correctly, signing Todd Hundley was a no-brainer. A guy who knew Cubs history, and genuinely seemed to want to be here. And I was OK with signing Bradley (after DeRosa was gone at least) because he seemed like the other extreme: a guy who did not know Cubs history, nor did he care a lick about it, so he should not feel any extra historical pressure. And I bought into the notion that we needed an alpha-male type, a mean guy to go with all the nice guys in our clubhouse. These two will go down as two of the worst, if not THE two worst Cubs free agent signings of all time. On the flip side, as Jim Hendry loves to remind us, most Cub fans were 100% against signing DeRosa as a free agent and look how that turned out. Baseball is a funny game, and a humbling game. I wish I had the answer to all this rambling, but the truth is, I don’t think any of us do.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
by ctcoff99 on Sep 25, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many of us can honestly say.....
that we thought trading George Bell straight up for Sammy Sosa was a good trade for the Cubs at the time?
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
by ctcoff99 on Sep 25, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
Whether you know of the history or not, there is no question that it puts tremendous pressure on a player, whether he knows it consciously or not. Every player who signs here wants to be part of the team that wins it all for the first time in 100 years. Every manager who takes the job wants to be “the guy” who leads that team to breaking the drought.
That is pressure that cannot be quantified — no matter how hard you try — and it may have a major impact on players, coaches and managers of the Chicago Cubs. It sure did seem to last year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to add right here...
… that I am enjoying the discussion the last couple of days about this topic. It has been (mostly) free of rancor and I have learned a lot from some really smart people. Please keep this going — it can only benefit all of us.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 24, 2009 3:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This is a great post
and thread, had to rec it.
by Harry Pavlidis on Sep 24, 2009 10:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lots of food for thought here
Good points, all.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Sep 25, 2009 1:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Best thread on this topic I have yet seen
on here. I enjoyed reading this one, as opposed to most of the other posts/threads on this subject, which came close to making me dislike baseball. Thanks, WittyUserName.
"Was you ever punched in the face five hundred times a night? It stings after a while." ~Rocky Balboa
by Goodie1969 on Sep 25, 2009 5:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
I appreciate your appreciation.
by WittyUserName on Sep 26, 2009 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have not gone back to look at the games but
as I recall last season, the Cubs really lost their swagger (or whatever Lou called it) in the last two games of the Phillies series. They won the first two – the second, as I remember, on an ARam grand slam, and then just got their brains beat in for the next two days. From then on, they just didn’t seem like the same team. And despite their record, I had no great faith that they could beat the Dodgers. The May/June/July Cubs could have beaten them, but the October Cubs were not the same team. So, was it the hundred year pressure that undid our favorite team. or just the unfortunate circumstance that they weren’t playing well when they needed to most? When is it that the pressure kicks in? In the third game of a Phillies series in September? Because, if memory serves, until then, they were the best team in the NL.
by the nth on Sep 28, 2009 2:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
PS
Games against the Reds and Pirates after the Phils series cannot be used to make any point about how the Cubs were good at the end of the season. Sorry if I seems nuts. Flew home from Seattle where I saw our Bears slip by the neon green team from the northwest. I tell ya. As long as the team the Bears are playing misses two field goals, they can’t lose.
by the nth on Sep 28, 2009 3:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Those Seahawks uniforms were about the ugliest things I have ever seen.
Kind of reminded me of this:

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Sep 28, 2009 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw the Seahawks uni's
and almost hoped the Bears were in there Orange ones, that way it could have the ugliest uni game!!
The sun will shine in '69
by gaclaudy on Sep 28, 2009 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The goalposts
are the Bears’ twelfth man.
"Was you ever punched in the face five hundred times a night? It stings after a while." ~Rocky Balboa
by Goodie1969 on Sep 28, 2009 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to hate myself for wading back into this...
…but the list of intangibles certainly includes things that can and have been measured tangibly, like “clutch.” A lot of the rest of it is something that can’t be measured apart from other things, but it is of questionable value to do so – if one guy plays 110% and one guy plays 90%, and they have the same stats, who is more valuable? (Hint – since the stats, in fact, record the results, they are, um, equally valuable.)
by cwyers on Oct 1, 2009 8:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That last part is undeniably true.
It does tell you that the guy who plays 90%, if he gave more effort, might produce better numbers. But there’s no way to know that for certain, is there?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 2, 2009 7:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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