For all intents and purposes, our playoff chances are gone. Our mathematical odds are now down to 1%. The common belief is that our offense was the cause of our failure. And while there certainly was a fall off from 2008, our numbers are actually league average by most widely accepted standards. Here are some comparisons showing the 2009 team number, league average and 2008 team average,
2009 Cubs 2009 league avg. 2008 Cubs
OPS .741 ,741 .797
Runs/game 4.37 4.44 5.31
BAbip .294 .298 .321
Slg .412 .410 .443
Power/Speed Num 68.6 95 118.1
BA/RISP .245 .268 .278
Clearly, our team has not hit the ball like last year, and that is the comparison many of us make. However, we are at league average in most categories. The one huge drop has been in team speed, or the use of team speed. Measurably we are worst in the league whereas last year we were well above average. As an example, we have not had a stolen base the past 15 games and have been caught 4 times.
The one question we do have to ask is whether this team is a .500 team offensively or we can expect a significant bounce back to above average performance. Finally, I have not yet tried to evaluate the numbers for our pitching staff. I'll publish that later.