Right now we have Dempster and Zambrano has the only “sure things” in the rotation. Wells is certainly in the rotation, but it remains to be seen if he is again solid in the rotation this year. After that, you have Lilly (who will likely miss April) and Gorzellany, Marshall, and Silva. None of those last three are guys who you’d start ahead of a potentially healthy Sheets.

If we do sign Sheets (and if Sheets is healthy enough to be a productive starter), then we have a stronger bullpen and Gorzellany either goes to the pen or goes to AAA to be the 6th starter. And if Sheets isn’t healthy, then either Marshall or Gorzellany (or Silva if he finds some magic) will jump into the 5th spot. It’s not like Sheets would be bumping a potential Cy Young winner to the bullpen here. It’s always nice to have options for the back end of the rotation.

I know, I know — you can never have too much pitching, and I know that Silva is far from a safe bet. But think of it like this:

Rotation: Z, Sheets, Dempster, Wells, Lilly/Silva. Barring unforeseen injuries (or a slide by Wells), the only real question is whether Silva would be the fifth starter until Lilly’s return — and fifth starters aren’t that necessary in April.

The sure bets in the pen are Marmol, Guzman and Grabow, with Gray as very probable. I’d bet that either Caridad or Berg gets a spot, too, and the Cubs (from recent comments) seem intent on signing a free-agent righty to fill Heilman’s role.

So, Marmol, Guzman, Grabow, Gray, Free-agent righty, Caridad/Berg That leaves one spot for Marshall, Gorzo, Shark, Caridad/Berg, Parisi, Patton.

My guess is Shark starts the season in Iowa as a starter and either Marshall or Gorzo gets the final spot in the pen. I bet the Cubs end up trading Marshall to somebody like Kansas City, where he can get a chance to finally start for a full season. Gorzo stays as the long man in the pen AND as insurance in case Lilly/Silva causes problems.