Nady or Dye?
by Bradsbeard on Jan 18, 2010 3:08 PM CST
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PrintCubs Interested in Xavier Nady
From the start of the offseason, I had this grim hunch that Xavier Nady would be the kind of guy the Cubs would bring in to be the "RBI guy" that Lou wanted. I was surprised to see this report with all the Dye speculation, although it probably just means the Cubs are turning over every stone for the best buy low scenario to round out the bench. But it got me thinking, would we rather have Nady or Dye as Fukudome's platoon mate in right / fourth outfielder? At this point, I'm not sure who would demand more money. It seems logistically more likely that we sign Dye, but who would you rather have?
Xavier Nady is only 31, plays slightly below average defense in right (-2.1 career UZR) compared to Dye's well below average defense in right (-15.1 career UZR, including four straight -20 campaigns). The big question is if Nady's surgically repaired arm can still make the throw to third. Nady has actually played over 540 innings at first, with what appears to be above average defense (in a small sample size), not to mention a handful of games at 3rd (hey, in an emergency...).
Offensively, they are closer than you might think. Nady's career triple slash is .280/.335/.458. Dye's is .278/.338.488. Since 2006 (including 2009, in which Nady played only 6 games), Nady has been 5 WAR player to Dye's 4.1. Even if Nady's 2008 (.305/.357/.510) is a bit of an outlier, I could see him somewhere between his career line and his 2008 line. Something like .285/.345/.480.
The big question is who will be cheaper. I think I'd rather invest in the 31 year old with more defensive and trade value than the 36 year old who is on his last legs and probably on his last contract. Of course, the other question is, would you rather just re-sign Reed Johnson or play Sam Fuld...
EDIT:
I should add that what scared me about Nady initially was the fear that Hendry might give him a payday based on his 2008 numbers. Given the limited interest in him (especially by the Yankees), it appears he should come cheap. What would be ironic would be if the Cubs signed Nady and the Yankees signed Reed Johnson.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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between the two
I’d rather see Nady so long as his arm is doing ok. I think there’s more upside and a better defensive player (so long as the arm is ok).
That's why he's coming on the cheap
His arm is obviously important when talking about his defensive value.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
I like Dye, but Nady can play more positions.
At one point didn’t he play 3B as well?
They both can hit, I just think Dye is better suited for DH like our current LF.
Two DHs in the NL
Very, very bad. Very, very bad Jim Hendry!
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
Right
And the fact that he was a plus defender in the field the three previous years in the OF is completely coincidental. Way to overreact to an outlier dude!
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 25, 2010 7:34 AM CST up reply actions
Dye a few sasons ago
Nady today. I wish we had tried to trade for Dye last off season instaed of MB and I voiced that a few times. He could have played some for Fukudome in RF instead pushing Fukudome out of position in CF
Just because you talk a lot doesn't mean you're saying anything. dtpollitt 1-7-10
woujld have either been kids from within or another move
Just because you talk a lot doesn't mean you're saying anything. dtpollitt 1-7-10
Fuld would.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs do sign Dye. Dye was good in the first three months of the season, than suddenly declined both on defense and offense. If Dye is the 4th outfielder, he would not decline the way he did last year.
by braziliancubsfan on Jan 18, 2010 8:24 PM CST up reply actions
You might want to change the "of" to an "or" in your headline.
I gotta admit, Nady does sound a little better on paper than Dye. I shall continue to ponder.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Changed!
Nady also comes with a great nickname, “The Untie-er”. For anyone who listens to the Fantasy Focus podcast on ESPN.com.
Is your username in reference to Brad Miller?
If so I love it
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
Neither
Get a guy who can play more than just OF.
Chad Tracy
Russell Branyan
These two can play multiple positions, have pop, and aren’t complete failures in the OF. Besides, Fuld plays better defense than all of these guys mentioned here. He should be your fourth OF
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
Yeah, he probably wouldn't play 3rd
He’s played in 3 MLB games at 3rd several years ago, so who knows what to expect. I’m guessing not much.
In a Nady scenario, you’d be banking on Jeff Baker to back up Ramirez. I realize that’s not an exciting option. His track record at 3rd is also limited. If you go with Tracy you’d have to choose between Tracy getting a limited amount of at bats in a backup roll and Nady getting a more significant amount of at bats in a RF platoon.
Fuld would probably still be on the team
He just wouldn’t be sharing the platoon roll with Fukudome in right. He’d be 5th on the depth chart probably.
Agreed.
Fuld is already pencilled in as fifth OF.
I do think/wish Russell Branyan was a little more in the conversation. I don’t believe he’s been linked to the Cubs yet, though.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I'd take Branyan first
But you’re right, he hasn’t been linked with the Cubs. That’s why I think Tracy is our best option
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
That gives us
two lefties in our RF platoon. Sure, we can probably play Fuld in center and Byrd in right when lefties pitch, but that relegates Tracy to backup 3B/1B and not much playing time.
Nady over Dye anyday.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
I echo Daver's thoughts...
on Branyan. I think it’s useful to have a somewhat intimidating PH to come off the bench. Glad you can play CF Fuld, but I’d like a Ward/Fox guy for that late inning bat.
Fuld is already on the team and shouldn't be in your poll.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Fuld option
The option there is Fuld filling in a platoon role with Fukudome as opposed to just being a defensive replacement/5th guy on the depth chart. IOW, against lefties, Fuld starts in center with Byrd in right (or vice versa). The last bench spot goes to someone else not Nady or Dye.
I guess you could do something like that.
Fuld does have a reverse split.
But I’d rather have someone platooning with Fukudome, and save Fuld for the 5th spot.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He has a reverse split in limited action.
The odds that keeps up are pretty low.
That sounds illegal.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
It doesn't help that I got a bottle of it from Jose Canseco.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
But you will always ♥ PV!
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 19, 2010 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
and crave ERIC HANNA
Just because you talk a lot doesn't mean you're saying anything. dtpollitt 1-7-10
Oh, crap. I picked the wrong Whitney Houston movie
I suppose that’s actually a good thing….
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 19, 2010 4:01 PM CST up reply actions
There's no one wrong Whitney Houston movie.
They’re all wrong.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Hmmm....
…….gonna go against the grain here and hope for Dye. I think the potential upside is higher. Also, I just don’t trust the arm.
I know I’m probably in the minority here. I’ll take Dye.
"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez
"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."
by The Jade Scorpion on Jan 18, 2010 4:16 PM CST reply actions
NADY!
It’s not even close.
Dye’s lowest projection is a wOBA of .345 (both CHONE and Marcel) and in a down year he still posted a wOBA of .344 last season. His fielding concerns me more, as he’s been at -20 UZR/150 or worse in each of the last 4 seasons.
Dye would be fine to sign as a DH, but I don’t want any part of him as a 4th or 5th OF. Fukudome should be at least average in the field. Over the course of a season, that’ll net the team about 5 extra runs over Dye in games against LHP. At the plate, they’ve got the roughly the same wOBA projection, with Dye about 0.05 better in wOBA. Instituting a platoon of two players differing only in handedness but otherwise identical will only add about 0.012 wOBA to the lineup. This gives Dye an advantage of ~0.017 in his hitting against LHP. Over the course of a season (~150 ABs vs LHP), that only brings back 2.2 runs.
In other words, the Cubs would be worse in a platoon of Fukudome and Dye than they would be just playing Fukudome full time. This analysis assumes Fukudome’s drastic splits aren’t “real” i.e. aren’t some true ability (or lack thereof) of his. But he’d have to have pretty dramatic splits for Dye to be worth any money at all. For this to be worth it, Fukudome would have to be 0.038 worse than Dye in terms of wOBA. That’s a HUGE difference, especially considering their overall projections have them at just a 0.05 difference. Fukudome would have to be post wOBA’s in the neighborhood of 0.328 vs LHP and 0.356 vs. RHP. I guess that’s possible, but if you’re going to do that why spend money on Dye? At that point you’re just breaking even. And then you’re throwing $1M at Dye just to tread water and make your lineup all right-handed 1-2 games a week? I’d rather them platoon Fukudome with Fuld (yes I know he’s left-handed, too) and just cut their losses if they’re that concerned with Fukudome’s ability to hit LHP. Or, as someone else suggested, sign someone like Nady instead.
Dye would be a very silly – and at best pointless – acquisition.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 18, 2010 5:40 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed on Dye
Would you rather have Nady over Reed Johnson?
Today is the first day I seriously considered what Nady would bring to the table. Johnson has an edge defensively, but certainly doesn’t bring the power to the table that Nady does. However, Johnson has clobbered left handed pitching for his career. He’s older than Nady, has had health problems, and at least a few weeks ago wanted more than the $3 million he was paid last year, but I can imagine that number dropping as the market continues to devalue veterans. It would also be nice to keep his speed on the team.
So, if either could be had for about the same salary, who would you choose? Until today I thought Johnson was the best way to go, but if Nady’s arm is functional, I might go with him.
Off the top of my head, yes.
I’m not sold on Reedz. He’s a good player, but my gut says Nady would be a better option.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 18, 2010 7:35 PM CST up reply actions
...and after looking at the numbers, Johnson isn't a good fit.
He just doesn’t have the bat for this. A Johnson/Fukudome platoon would probably be worse than playing Fukudome full time.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 18, 2010 7:42 PM CST up reply actions
Looking at the defensive numbers
I see your point. I didn’t realize Johnson has a -7.9 career UZR in right. Nady’s UZR in right is actually much better in over twice as many innings (-2.1 in 3,355 innings).
Hm, OK, this does cause me to reconsider...
…my lukewarm support for Jermaine Dye.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Couldnt Nady be a replacement for Fukudome all together?
I mean with only one year left on his deal, he ought to be easier to move than in years past, provided Nady is healthy
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Fukudome is not being traded
neither is Soriano. People need to stop thinking about those things.
just my opinion, no disrespect
Just because you talk a lot doesn't mean you're saying anything. dtpollitt 1-7-10
I wasnt suggesting that entirely
simply that Nady was pretty damn good in his last full season
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
i know
i was more or less lumping a few replies to the many into one post. Too often BCBers continue to run out trade ideas for players with a NTC, thats why I said what i did
Just because you talk a lot doesn't mean you're saying anything. dtpollitt 1-7-10
Boras
I managed to gloss over the fact that Scott Boras is Nady’s agent. I think I knew that before and forgot, thus my initial disinterest in the Cubs pursuing Nady. Eventually Nady will have to sign for something, the question is how cheaply can he be reeled in with Boras tugging at the other end of the line?
Wow ....I didn't vote cuz I just don't know....but the results really surprised me.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."--Rogers Hornsby
I actually doubt that Nady is a viable option for the Cubs
Coming off an injury, he probably will want to re-establish himself as a full-time player, if he is healthy. That’s not the role the Cubs are seeking. For the same money, or even less, he is more likely to seek a starting option and then pursue more $ next offseason.
But I wouldn’t want Dye because of the fielding issues – this is the National League. Reed Johnson would be a better option, even if they want the same money.
Xavier Nady is a very good ballplayer
Frankly, I’m surprised he would be open to 4th outfielder status. I understand he is coming off a major surgery, but the guy is a solid ballplayer. Good defense, versatile and can drive in runs.
Jermaine Dye is spent and offers the Cubs nothing.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
by BLou on Jan 18, 2010 8:00 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd.
Not only do I agree, but it was the most positive thing I have ever heard you say. Keep up the good work.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
by Ryno Runner on Jan 18, 2010 10:41 PM CST up reply actions
Here's an evaluation from Fangraphs
Slightly more pessimistic about his value going forward:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/examining-xavier
Here's an evaluation from Fangraphs
Slightly more pessimistic about his value going forward:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/examining-xavier
Anyone have thoughts on
Edmonds wanting a tryout with the Cards? Should the Cubs offer him one as well?
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
Yes
If nothing else, to piss off TLR. He had nasty things to say about Edmonds in 2008, and suddenly he’s ok again?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 19, 2010 9:24 AM CST up reply actions
Jim Edmonds is best option on the board
I’d take him 100 times out of 100 over Jermaine Dye. Edmonds hits from the left-side and can play defense. Of course he would have to make the ballclub via tryout at this stage.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Fair enough.
Would you take Edmonds over Xavier Nady, though?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I don't think Xavier Nady is an option for the Cubs
A. I have to believe that if Nady is healthy he will have little problem identifying full time work with a team.
B. There seem to be reports floating that Nady’s ability to play the field any time soon is significantly compromised by the surgery to his arm. If that’s the case, then that explains why he is still lingering on the market. And why he would have no value to the Cubs.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Didn't you say...? You know what, never mind.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
Seems like Nady may have to take a 4th OF job...
…to prove that he’s healthy again. Clearly, the Cubs would have to vet his medical records carefully if they were serious about him. And they are looking at him: LINKY.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
When you load that link...
… there is a stillframe (you can play video) of Marlon Byrd, last year with Texas. He looks chunky.
I saw him up close at the convention. He is definitely slimmed down and in better shape.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's good to hear.
He seems like a sharp guy – he’s probably been training to play a full season in centerfield.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Nady
I like the former Cal Bear, if I had to choose between the two. Dye seems too “Burnitz-y” for me.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
NADY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah X man!@
"Keep pushin till it's understood,
And these badlands start treating us good."
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