Analyzing the Changes in the Cubs' Expected 2010 Offense (Edited with Comparison to the Cardinals)
The Cubs' offense accounts for much of the story between our dramatic shift from 97 win juggernaut to an 83 win disappointment. We went from the best NL offense to the 10th best, from 855 runs scored to 707 runs scored. Amazingly, the difference from our 2008-2009 runs allowed was only one run. We'll want to investigate what to expect from 2010's pitching when we're sure that we have the final pitching roster. For now, we've got a pretty good idea what the 2010 offense will be. It's possible Jim Hendry will find a bargain 2B to add, but it's not likely such an addition will improve the projections. It would also be a good idea to add more OF depth, as I've argued a number ot times. But even if we do add someone like Ryan Church or Scott Hairston or Ryan Spilborghs, and even if they do end up with 400 PAs, spelling all of our OFs, we've got a decent enough picture of the Cubs' offense to start analyzing it.
Below is a chart showing the 2009 NL averages for offense, followed by the 2009 Cubs' actual offense, followed by the 2010 CHONE Cub projections. As we can see, there are some reasons for concern and also some reasons for good expectations. One thing to note is that neither the '09 averages nor the '09 Cubs #s reflect any one players's #s in the way the 2010 CHONE projections do. Replacement players sub in and dilute those actual numbers. So, we shouldn't just compare those numbers straight to the 2010 CHONE projections for the starters. Some of the starters will play over 155 games, but not all of them.
| Position Defensive/Batting Order | 2009 NL Averages | 2009 Cubs | 2010 CHONE Cub Projections | Cubs CHONE R/150 + defense | 2009 Cards | 2010 CHONE Cards Projections | Cards CHONE R/150 + defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | .255/.325/.385 | .227/.318/.357 | .268/.357/.459 | 7 | .286/.354/.375 | .280/.345/.395 | 5 |
| 1B | .282/.373/.485 | .295/.376/.553 | .285/.365/.487 | 17 | .320/.434/.631 | .321/.404/.607 | 61 |
| 2B | .268/.337/.406 | .254/.310/.357 | (MF) .260/.329/.397 & (JB) .255/.320/.421 | -8 | .288/.355/.392 | .294/.355/.401 | -7 |
| 3B | .261/.333/.419 | .278/.352/.466 | .289/.359/.502 | 11 | .229/.292/.369 | .269/.335/.442 | -1 |
| SS | .268/.327/.396 | .280/.339/.371 | .280/.350/.367 | -11 | .279/.336/.400 | .270/.323/.374 | 0 |
| LF | .271/.343/.439 | .240/.304/.414 | .257/.310/.469 | -4 | .262/.339/.436 | .304/.382/.513 | 30 |
| CF | .268/.339/.424 | .260/.358/.417 | .281/.345/.448 | 1 | .248/.301/.401 | .264/.340/.439 | 8 |
| RF | .264/.339/.442 | .264/.373/.412 | .260/.364/.405 | 6 | .265/.323/.431 | .269/.341/.482 | 10 |
| 1st | .273/.340/.402 | .249/.335/.372 | .260/.364/.405 | 6 | .294/.360/.395 | .294/.355/.401 | -7 |
| 2nd | .273/.338/.405 | .265/.343/.411 | .280/.350/.367 | -11 | .267/.316/.411 | .264/.340/.439 | 8 |
| 3rd | .286/.373/.488 | .275/.372/.481 | .285/.365/.487 | 17 | .320/.436/.636 | .321/.404/.607 | 61 |
| 4th | .278/.353/.482 | .295/.387/.513 | .289/.359/.502 | 11 | .283/.356/.494 | .304/.382/.513 | 30 |
| 5th | .258/.334/.425 | .252/.337/.418 | .281/.345/.448 | 1 | .261/.324/.406 | .269/.341/.482 | 10 |
| 6th | .259/.333/.423 | .265/.340/.434 | .257/.310/.469 | -4 | .244/.306/.382 | .269/.335/.442 | -1 |
| 7th | .255/.319/.401 | .254/.316/.396 | .268/.357/.459 | 7 | .249/.318/.345 | .280/.345/.395 | 5 |
| 8th | .253/.326/.371 | .249/.314/.333 | (MF) .260/.329/.397 & (JB) .255/.320/.421 | -8 | .227/.291/.354 | .270/.323/.374 | 0 |
| Total | 19 | 106 | |||||
CHONE is bearish on Alfonso Soriano but bullish on Geovany Soto. If both players post #s similar to their projections, it will be interesting to see what Lou does with their positions in the lineup. I say that because with those kinds of numbers, you might not just argue for something as easy as flipping them in the lineup, but really going against the grain of normal lineup construction and put Soto's OBP at the top of the lineup. Especially if Soriano is in bad shape, Soto could be really wasted at #7.
What about Marlon Byrd? People have been underwhelmed by him, but when you compare him to the average CF and the average #5 hitter, he doesn't look so bad. No, he's nothing special, but he's a tick above average in both of those places and he's not getting paid anything special. You can also note that we project to get just a little less offense from CF/RF than last year (once you dilute for bench players resting our CF/RF), even as we upgraded the defense significantly. That's a good trade off.
Last year, we got average production from SS and below average production from C, 2B, and LF. Each of 2009's starters at those positions return, although 2009's 2B #s are dragged down by Aaron Miles and he's gone. The Cubs really need two of those four to bounce back to 2008, when each provided above average production at those positions. The good news is that we have two good lottery tickets at 2B and SS talent in the pipeline.
From the lineup perspective, our 1-2 hitters give us above average OBP at the top of the lineup, which is an important improvement over 2009's anemic top of the order. Our 3-4 hitters are solid, although CHONE expects a little regression from last year. Our 5-6 hitters are average, strong on SLG. Our 7-8 hitters are projecting really strong compared to average - and it's that depth of lineup which I believe made the 2008 attack so strong. If we can get that depth back it will be a huge improvement on 2009 when pitchers had three easy outs in a row at the end of the Cubs' lineup.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
200 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Who's leading off?
Are the Riot and Dome the only options at this point?
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
Ah
I should have linked to this fanshot, which posted a lineup of
Dome
Riot
Lee
Rami
Byrd
Sori
Soto
Fonty
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
by DGU on Jan 2, 2010 7:05 PM CST up reply actions
So much for balance in the lineup
I guess it’s Lou’s best option to have it like that. Riot and Dome are interchangeable I suppose.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
Not sure what those 3 nos. mean
BA, OBA and OPS?
I think our offense will be average. Lack of speed and LH pop aggravating they’ve done nuthin to address it in off-season. Loved idea of getting Ellsbury from Bos. Oh well, dream on we’ll have to develop a speedy LH OF option for 2012 and some new IF as well by then with wheels (Castro and the Korean SS).
Soriano batting sixth kills you chances for prolonged rallies with his high K rate, but guess we’re stuck with him.
The three numbers are AVG/OBP/SLG
or Batting Average, On Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
by DGU on Jan 2, 2010 9:06 PM CST up reply actions
Ridiculously too right-handed AND one dimensional
What doesn’t get talked about a lot is the fact that this is a “station to station” type lineup. Playing for the 3-run homer and being so insanely right-handed is a recipe for a below average offense. Where it will rate in the NL I have no idea. But it won’t be good.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Did you bother to vote ?
Just wondering since “dead last” has no votes yet.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Jan 2, 2010 11:44 PM CST up reply actions
Playing for the 3-run homer and being so insanely right-handed is a recipe for a below average offense.
2008 would like a word.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jan 3, 2010 5:27 PM CST up reply actions
The double whammy of a non-productive farm system and addiction to free agency
Corey Patterson? Didn’t work out.
Felix Pie? Didn’t work out.
Tyler Colvin? Didn’t work out.
Which leads to MADDENING things like habitually going after free agents.
Jeremy Burnitz? Terrible
Jacque Jones? Terrible
Alfonso Soriano? Absolutely horrific
Kosuke Fukudome? $48 million for a So Taguchi clone
Milton Bradley? Horrfic signing that now means two years of Carlos Silva
Marlon Byrd??? 3 years tied up on a mid-30’s outfielder who weighs 245 pounds and hits from the wrong side of the plate.
The next saga will be Brett Jackson. But even if this kid pans out then where’s he going to play when you have 5 more years wrapped up in Soriano, 3 years in Byrd and 2 years in Fukudome?
This whole thing is a clusterfuck. I apologize for the language, but it is what it is.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
...and then there was silence
You see, this is what is so damned comical about the Jim Hendry Apologist Society on this board. Hard cold facts are pointed out and the silence overwhelms because the resident monkeys can’t think of good comeback lines to make it all about me as opposed to the topic at hand.
Al Yellon? Care to chiime in on this one?
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
actually I didnt reply
because there is too much BLou monkey shit flinging involved in your post, which was full of more Blouisms and less factual insight
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
to be fair
youve run away when facts are pointed out to you
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 2, 2010 10:07 PM CST up reply actions
Fine
Make it yet another pissing contest about BLOU. The art of deflection and denial runs supreme.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
why dont you use facts and debate
instead of state false information as fact and run when presented with the facts
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
What would be the wrong facts I have on...
Patterson, Pie, Colvin, Burnitz, Jones, Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley, Byrd??!?!
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
what is a fact you stated there?
Byrd being mid 30’s (at the current age of 31)?
none of what you said was a fact, it was BLouism (ripping into people without using any common sense in a debate, stating false details as fact, running from the facts presented)
there have been many posts that show Fukudome has not been that much over paod based on results, as well as the links to other teams offering more money, et al that you of course REFUSE TO READ, ACCEPT, AND CONTINUE TO REJECT because you have made up your mind and that is all that matters…
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Perhaps you could start with Fukudome being a So Taguchi clone.
Other than nationality, I don’t really see it. Dome had a .375 OBP last year, and I think most feel that he would be best used as a #1 or 2 hitter, where would be an asset. Taguchi never approached a .375 OBP, in fact never even approached 500 ab’s in a season. Dome had 54 extra base hits, again, a number never approached by Taguchi. Tell me how your facts support this comparison, other than their birth country.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
this is why BLou has not commented to any of the replies
he knows he is dead wrong…..AGAIN
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
i wasnt trying to make it about you
but if i hurt your feelings, you have my deepest sympathies
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 2, 2010 11:14 PM CST up reply actions
If you would take the time to argue your opinions in a balanced, factual, reasonable fashion,
using polite and civilized language, then you would not be at the receiving end of a “pissing contest.”
Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.
- The Mock Turtle, Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll -
it might be because you've said most of this already, just sayin'
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."--Rogers Hornsby
by cooliogirl47 on Jan 2, 2010 10:09 PM CST up reply actions
What can I say?
You cherry-pick things that sort of fit your bombastic ideas, and then criticize even some of those things that worked out OK (Jacque Jones did have a pretty good 2nd half of 2007, and then the Cubs were able to trade the third year away).
Marlon Byrd isn’t in his “mid 30’s”. He’s 31. I’ll wait to see about his weight, and I don’t care about the righthanded hitter nonsense.
If you were a little less bombastic, maybe I could have a discussion with you.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Jacque Jones had a pretty good 2006, too.
.354 wOBA, .111 wRC+ (.833 OPS).
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
If Byrd's range is OK, I wouldn't get real worked up about his weight
NFL linebackers weigh about 245 and most of them seem to get around the field OK. Plus, Kirby Puckett always looked like the only reason he was at a baseball stadium was to sell beer. He wasn’t a great CF over his career, but he got it done.
You give people a half hour to respond before claiming you've shut people up?
Anyway – what are you saying that’s new? I’ve put up a post about what we might expect from this offense. And sure, there are things raw projections don’t take into account – handedness, speed, etc. But how about you respond to what I actually posted? CHONE is not being optimistic on most of these Cubs hitters, and we look above average.
As for Ankiel? You do realize that last year he had a line just a tick worse than Mike Fontenot’s. And the year before that, Fontenot’s line was several ticks above Ankiel’s. So, why be bullish on Ankiel – who’s absolutely lost it once before – while simultaneously discounting Fontenot? I would not give more than a year to Ankiel, because he could easily be as done as a hitter today as he was as a pitcher last decade.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
by DGU on Jan 2, 2010 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
rec'd
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Maybe because most realize debating you
is a waste of time? Just because most here are not so incessantly negative as you are does not mean they are team apologists.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 3, 2010 9:20 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think there were any facts in your statement that back up your argument.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 3, 2010 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
and once you call people out
you post at the bottom of the thread that you are not open to discuss any of this
what a joke…….
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
You gave people 27 minutes late on a Saturday evening before declaring yourself correct due to silence.
Perhaps consider you were just the only one home playing on the internet?
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
then never replied to the posts about it
by saying none of us are allowed to debate or talk to him about these things
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
ok i will bote BLou
Corey Patterson? Didn’t work out
this is as much cuz of CPat being unwilling to work with coaches to improve. He told Sarge that he there was nothing Sarge could teach him for example. Cannot blame Hendry for CPat
Felix Pie? Didn’t work out.
Pie needed a different work environment. People (like BLou) are always saying we are/were in a win now mode, cannot do that with a rookie learning on the job
Tyler Colvin? Didn’t work out.
Maybe to date, but he is still in the organization and time will tell. This is jumping the gun
Jeremy Burnitz? Terrible
He was signed as much to be the anti-Sosa as he was to produce. It was a bad Cubs team before he signed, and was the same with him.
Jacque Jones? Terrible
Natural CF who had his best efforts as a CF for the Cubs before being traded. He was not horrible, but not great. Expectations were higher than results, thats about it
Alfonso Soriano? Absolutely horrific
He carried us to the playoffs in 2007 and is streaky. 2009 he was not healthy, and 2010 should be better
Kosuke Fukudome? $48 million for a So Taguchi clone
Better than Taguchi. People wanted him to be a 30+ HR hitter, when that is not who he is. People need to take into consideration that the PCL stadiums are about 20 feet shorter from home to wall and the walls are also shorter. He turned down large contracts to be a Cub and has earned his money.
Milton Bradley? Horrfic signing that now means two years of Carlos Silva
BLou loved the signing last season, now he blasts it without looking in the rear view mirror. It was a good idea that didnt work out, shit happens, stop harping about it. Time to move on. Silva was brought in not to be a big time contributor, but to out MB from the clubhouse. Like a back up catcher, any production is a plus.
Marlon Byrd??? 3 years tied up on a mid-30’s outfielder who weighs 245 pounds and hits from the wrong side of the plate.
He is 31, not mid 30’s. And I believe he swings from the correct side of the plate, I have never seen him with his butt to the plate swinging towards the dugout. Bieng a RH or LH bat is less important than if he can produce. No one here knows him as well as Rudy and I trust Rudy’s judgement and will see how this works out before judging it.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 2, 2010 10:38 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
BLou BLou Where Are You
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
The fact that he keeps saying "mid-30's"...
…when he’s been corrected on Byrd’s age multiple times is quite frustrating.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
LA LA LA LA LA LA.... I CAN'T HEAR YOU!

Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Jan 5, 2010 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.
- The Mock Turtle, Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll -
by eths on Jan 5, 2010 5:40 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
How about a little perspective at the cost of one your favorite GMs?
Joe Borchard? Didn’t work out.
Brian N Anderson? Didn’t work out.
Chris Young? Didn’t work out.
Ryan Sweeney? Didn’t work out.
Josh Fields? Didn’t work out.
Jerry Owens? Didn’t work out.
The whole 2005 Top Ten Prospect List is a Pile of Fail.
If it wasn’t for taking advantage of teams needing to dump high salary pitchers, Genius Ken wouldn’t have anything from this wasteland of a farm.
Which leads to MADDENING things like crazy trades.
Rob Mackowiak? Seriously?
Carlos Quention? Now we know why he was free – he’ll never be healthy again.
Nick Swisher? Don’t remind me about this clown.
Ken Griffey? We actually played him in CF?
Which leads to the joke of all baseball – that we actually took on the contract of Alex “Don’t call me Escobar” Rios!
And now we’re excited that we might sign Rick .285 OBP Ankiel! Yippee! At least he hits from the “right side” of the plate!
6 wins MAX – just the games against the Cubs, of course. MAX!
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
by DGU on Jan 3, 2010 7:02 AM CST up reply actions 10 recs
Loud, sustained applause.
And rec’d. And before Dr Crawdad chimes in here and says I’m blasting the White Sox, all I’m doing here is showing how ANY baseball GM can make moves that don’t work out.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It's also about the problems with converting prospects
into productive players on your team.
I like Kenny Williams. He’s done some moves that I thought were really bad, but he’s done a lot of really smart things, too. And I like that he’ll make the big move. Too many GMs aren’t confident enough to do the things Kenny has done. Baseball is better for Kenny being a GM.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
by DGU on Jan 3, 2010 12:48 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
i agree and rec'd
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 3, 2010 2:26 PM CST up reply actions
Failed moves/failed prospects
IIRC I’ve said it here but when folks were discussing the number of failed Cubs prospects, but the Sox have as many or more failed prospects. Their record with first round picks has been simply awful, until Gordon Beckham.
Those are facts. I don’t know that I’ve argued against those types of facts. I have “chimed” in when there have been ugly smears and put-downs of the Sox and Sox fans here.
Too bad that you and some others traffic in those ugly insults so frequently.
"People shouldn’t bust your chops just because you’re a Sox fan on a Cub board — but I know it happens. FWIW, I think sites like this are more interesting when fans of other teams join in the conversation." by Shanghai Badger on Mar 13, 2009
BLou BLou Where Are You
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
as per usual
Alfonso Soriano took this team to the 2007 playoffs, and played a very large role in 2008.
And there’s no comparison between Dome and Toguchi, except for one thing, which has nothing to do with baseball.
Brett Jackson won’t be with the big league team till 2011 at the earliest.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jan 3, 2010 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
First, I hope you had a good New Years Eve
Second, you forgot Todd Hollandsworth. But he does at least work as a Cubs analyst for CSN, so maybe that’s a reprieve. You could go back farther if you wanted – Damon Buford, Henry Rodriguez, etc. But not Moises Alou.
Yes, I think everyone agrees that the Cubs farm system appears incapable of drafting/developing a decent MLB Outfielder. Outfielder drafted by the Cubs says “Minor league death sentence. Maybe I can sell used cars.”
But I wouldn’t fear for Brett Jackson’s MLB playing time too soon. He had only 26 games at A ball in 2009. Not exactly on the cusp of a Hall of Fame career.
It’s doubtful that the Cubs could trade there top dollar contracts and get a reasonable return for them. There is an inverse relationship between the remaining cost of the player’s contract and the prospect value you can receive – More dollars left means lower value prospects. Unless you eat money in the deal. Non of the Cubs top dollar contracts are netting a Roy Halladay deal.
But the Cubs in 2010 are not a cluster. They are a baseball team competing in the NL Central. The NL Central is probably the most winnable division in MLB. With limited injuries, winning the division is a definite possibility. And then the playoffs are crap shoot.
by RiskyBusiness on Jan 4, 2010 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
Tyler Colvin has had 20 major league plate appearances.
20.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Rick Ankiel
Having just turned the radio dial after the Blackhawks win I hear report on WSCR that the White Sox are preparing a two year bid for Rick Ankiel, with the idea that Pierre, Quentin and Ankiel would all rotate between the outfield and DH spot.
If the Sox can manage to get the power-hitting LEFT FRIGGIN HANDED Ankiel on a TWO YEAR deal then I’m going to puke. Don’t anybody on this board defend Jim Hendry anymore if this story is true.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Depends on how much money.
If the White Sox give Ankiel, say, 2/20, they can have him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I doubt that Ankiel commands 10 million in this market
Plus, Kenny Williams is very budget conscious and a doubt therefore that he could spend that much a season.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
are you even aware
that Ankiel is not a top 10 remaining FA, and you are making a big deal over nothing most likely?
here is a list of the top 10 ranked (which is from a BCB topic posted)
If Ankiel is not a Top 10 today, and was far from a Top 10 when FA started, why are you making such a big deal about it?
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
It's about the best conceivable fit for the Cubs
Ankiel on an apparent shorter and cheaper deal than Byrd is self-apparent choice in my book. I never claimed that Ankiel is the second coming of Joe DiMaggio.
But hey, Al Yellon and others insist that being all right-handed and a one dimensional station to station type offense will work just fine and dandy. So under that context I can’t win the argument with the ignorant.
Denial runs supreme this offseason. Anybody with objective bone in their body can’t possibly look at this roster and unfolding offseason and feel good about the 2010 prospects of this team.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
you continue to miss the entire point
that you are making a big deal about nothing. There is no proof that Ankiel is even remotely interested in playing as a Cub, before or since signign Byrd. Hendry cannot make a player sign that is not interested in signing.
Byrd also was ranked higher than Ankiel as FA’s go, so should Hendry sign the better player based on that or the lefty that ranks lower but will make BLou happier?
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
why wouldn't Ankiel be interested in the Cubs?
He’s probably just willing to follow the money.
some players have preference of where they play
and the Cubs ($$$ or not) might not be on their list. Hunter had no wants to be a Cub before he went to the Angels for example
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I have not heard he does or doesnt
but it does make it hard to sign a player who wants to start and wants starters money when he would be paid bench money and be a bench player
Ankiel would not be on my radar at all, I would go with Colvin before Ankiel
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
What I don't get is this...
Why do you assume that the Cubs being all right handed will automatically mean that their offense is below average? Didn’t we have a similar “problem” in 2008 that lead to 97 wins and the most runs scored in the NL? Yes, we lost to the Dodgers in the playoffs and many people assume it’s because of our lack of lefty bats, however, we still had the most runs scored in the regular season.
Also, wouldn’t you have to agree that the Byrd signing has changed the market for Ankiel? You can’t just say Ankiel would’ve been a cheaper option if you don’t take into consideration that before Byrd was signed we didn’t know what Ankiel could get.
"...but you the living, you're stuck here with the Cubs. So it is ME who feels sorry for you." - Steve Goodman, "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request"
He also liked the Soriano deal when they got him.
Blou makes some good points, but shouldn’t be ripping Hendry for moves he supported at one time.
SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!
by CubFaninCA on Jan 2, 2010 10:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
It's the Jay Mariotti way of commenting on events.
Support something, then when it doesn’t work out, blast it and pretend you were against it all along.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
No, I've known this all along.
Just never saw anyone say it here.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
im willing to bet that if hendry signed ankiel
youd complain and call him a washed up roid monkey
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 2, 2010 9:45 PM CST up reply actions
last off season BLou loved the Bradley signing
now he is trashing it. Are you suggesting he would do the same about an Ankiel signing?
Since we are talking about the Sox possibly signing him and him not being offered by Hendry, does BLou or anyone else know if Ankiel has interest in playing at Wrigley? How would Hendry be able to sign him to play at Wrigley if he does not want to be a Chicago Cub. That is not a decision for Hendry, but for the player alone.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Whatever
If the choice is between the left-handed hitting Rick Ankiel signed to a two year deal versus the right-handed hitting 33 year old 245 pound Byrd signed to a three year deal I can guarantee you which player I opt for.
Ankiel was a good outfielder for the Cardinals too. And assuming he is healthy would not have been a bad choice at all to bat 5th in the Cub lineup, especially on a bargain type two-year deal.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
again
do you know if Ankiel has intgerest in playing as a Cub? Hendry cannot sign someone who does not want to be signed.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Okay, you stick with the vast left-handed hitter conspiracy against playing for the Cubs
Lets keep defending and defending and defending Jim Hendry folks.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
im not defending Hendry
as much as I am asking you for proof he wants to sign with the Cubs and Hendry wont sign him (which is what you are assuming in your preaching)
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Bargain price is right
On ankiel .. I see a big risk here health concerns .. Would like to see him at a bargain rate as the Cubs 4th outfielder
Don't be so sure about the bargain price thing.
Scot Boras is Ankiel’s agent.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Good luck to the Sox if that is true, they will need it
Ankiel hits LH, but he strikes out LH, too. Giving a mulit-year contract to an OF who just put up a .231/.285/.387 season is a fair definition of the term “greater fool.” If Hendry gave Ankiel a 2-year deal, you would be all over him for squandering money on washed-up players.
The final word before bedtime
The following lineup is deeply problematic unless the clocks are turned back to 1972 and the Earl Weaver style of baseball runs supreme.
1. Soriano or Byrd
2. THeriot
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome (because a lefty absolutely MUST be inserted in the middle somehow)
6. Soriano
7. Baker and Fontenot
8. Hill and Soto
To go along with a rotation of the overpaid Dempster, the juvenile and disappointing Zambrano (and overpaid), the rehabbing 36 year old Lilly and the former non-prospect Wells, rounded out by Pittsburgh cast-off Gorzellaney, bust Samardizija or the very very awful Silva. Supported by a bullpen of Marmol (who Lord knows if he can close or get the ball over the plate anymore), Grabow, Marshall, Guzman and 3 open slots.
And I’m the jackhole of insisting the aforementioned recipe shall crank out a 75 win absolute max record.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Correct.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 2, 2010 11:37 PM CST up reply actions
Again.....Ted Lilly turns 34 tomorrow....
Are you purposely posting his age erroneously for effect because it really isn’t cute or funny.
Come on Lisa, I'm trying to impress people here. You don't win friends with salad. ~ Homer J. Simpson
i told him that about a month ago
i guess hes quick to forget
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 3, 2010 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
Soriano won't be leading off...
… and Fukudome won’t be batting fifth.
Care to try this again?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ooooh!! This is fun!
Let me try a Cardinals’ preview, BLou style (meaning bombastic claims and factual inaccuracy)!!
(Using only players on the current roster)
1 Schumaker 2B – a former non-prospect who is not really an infielder
2 Ryan SS – a former non-prospect so there is no way he could ever repeat his 2009 season
3 Pujols 1B – an injury prone, overpaid 35 year old 1B on the decline
4 Ludwick RF – a former non-prospect who hits wrong-handed
5 Molina C – weighs essentially the same as Soto, so he must be fat and out of shape. He must weigh 340 pounds. This also puts 4 RH hitters in a row, so TLR is a moron.
6 Rasmus CF – young and unproven
7 Stanihova LF – another in the laundry list of failed prospects. Could be Shane Robinson, who is too short to play baseball.
8 Starting Pitcher – because TLR is a genius
9 Lugo 3B – well, he’s Julio Lugo. And 38 years old.
The rotation: an injury prone Toronto cast-off in Carpenter followed by an Atlanta cast-off in Wainwright. Rehabbing Kyle Lohse is 3rd followed by the overpaid and fat Brad Penny. Any number of non-prospects will fill out the 5th spot, perhaps Mitchell Boggs. The others will be in the bullpen. It will be a pile of questions leading up to Ryan Franklin, who melted down at the end of a career year.
And they’ve traded away most of their system in order to rent DeRosa and Holliday. This clearly shows the Cardinal organization doesn’t know how to do anything. They are all stupid, fat, idiots.
There is absolutely no feasible way this team can win more than 55 games.
And anyone who is in disagreement with this post is just in denial or delusional. You are all idiots. But I’m sure you’ll have no answers for my undisputed facts except for personal attacks.
by fsuapollo on Jan 3, 2010 10:12 AM CST up reply actions 16 recs
brilliant!
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 3, 2010 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
It has been a half hour, BLou.
And -——- silence. Yeah. That’s what I thought.
(This post is also sarcasm poking at the first response far above… in case anyone isn’t quite sure.)
BLou BLou Where Are You
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 3, 2010 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
Ooh, can i try?
1 Granderson CF – a platoon player we gave up the farm for
2 Jeter SS – an overrated 35 year old with no range in the field
3 ARod 3B – the most overpaid choke artist in the history of the game
4 Teixeira 1B – good hitter but he’s past his prime
5 Swisher RF – Meh. Average-ish RF’er that’s great at nothing.
6 Cano 2B – A joke he’s batting 6th, and he’s a horrible fielder.
7 Posada C – Old as dirt
8 R. Pena DH – we don’t even have a DH. If Cashman doesn’t trade for Dunn i’m done with the yankees
9 Gardner – LOL. A Sam Fuld clone, and Fuld isn’t even starting for the Cubs, who we know are destined to lose at least 90 games.
What a joke.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 3, 2010 2:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
didnt Posada debut for the Yankees in 19-0-Jesus?
he has been around a long time, time for him to retire after 75 years of playing
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Amd don't forget about that craptacular Yankee pitching staff.
CC Sabathia — about to eat himself out of baseball
AJ Burnett — led the AL in walks last year
Andy Pettitte — so old that one of his rookie year teammates was Don Mattingly
Joba Chamberlain — I mean, can they make up their minds? Bullpen or rotation?
Mariano Rivera — so old that one of his rookie year teammates was Jimmy Key
I mean, seriously, how does that pitching staff win a single game? That’s got to be a team that will challenge the 1962 Mets for the loss record.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al Yellon on Jan 3, 2010 5:07 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
dont even get me started on their bench
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 3, 2010 5:14 PM CST up reply actions
Didn't know that he was still around

Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.
- The Mock Turtle, Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll -
it must be cuz they have LH bats
like Ankiel. The Yankees should sign him so that they can have another LH bat.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Pettite was one of the steroid users
so he can pitch forever and he is a lefty so he can also pinch hit.
didnt Pettite start back when it was Nike not NIke AIr
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Wanna Bet?
I’ll bet you $100 per game above or below 75 wins for the Cubs next year. Put up or STFU!!
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 4, 2010 10:25 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Begs the question
who is the bigger fool? The fool or the person debating the fool?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 3, 2010 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
You seem unusually intelligent for a FSU fan ; )
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 3, 2010 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
hey....
I blame it on all the alcohol we’ve had to drink to put up with our football team for nearly the last decade
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 3, 2010 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
Something about his tone really sets people off.
If he could bottle it, he’d probably make a lot of money.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
the bench
needs some tweaking here. we need some guys to be able to get the job done. does not look too good as is. if the cubs want to play it cheap theres always gomes or baldelli as extra outfielders
Nobody can win the argument that this is better than a 75 win team
I’m done debating the kool-aid drinkers. DGU is one of the smarter guys on this board, despite the kool-aid stains on the corner of his lips. So he has earned the right to continue debating with me on other topics.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
way to run away BLou
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.
- The Mock Turtle, Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll -
You didn't make the cut
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Yea, verily, I faileth to see the Light

Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.
- The Mock Turtle, Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll -
You?
You make the cut. That makes DGU, rlpete, Al, MPH73, DoggieStalker, dartmouthcubfan so far.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
so that is why you refuse to accept facts from all those you mention
as well as others, I think you mistake this site for www.bleedcubbieblou.com
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
i made the cut!
do i get an induction ceremony?
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 4, 2010 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
how much sand
can you pound?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Jan 4, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
BLou: not very bright and gutless it appears
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 4, 2010 8:31 AM CST up reply actions
Wanna Bet?
I’ll bet you $100 per game above or below 75 wins for the Cubs next year. Put up or STFU!!
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 4, 2010 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd this both times
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Thanks
I can’t be around every day but I’ll keep doing this every time until he does one or the other.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 4, 2010 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
you do know what he will do, right?
ignore it.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Oh Sure
That’s why I made it a macro. ;)
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 5, 2010 6:29 AM CST up reply actions
This is a great post DGU.
The Cubs should be an above-average offense in 2010. The one thing we have to keep in mind with these projections is that all of them will be “watered down” to some extent by bench bats. Fontenot/Baker should be able to back up all the infield spots and Baker/Fuld the OF spots.
I’d like to see the bench improved. I think they need a power LH bat more than anything else. Ankiel, perhaps?
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 3, 2010 3:53 PM CST reply actions
Hoff seems to be the LH bat
joining Font on the bench. There needs to be a tweak maybe, but I dont see the overhaul that some are calling for
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I agree with that.
Somewhere, maybe even during spring training, the Cubs will find someone better.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
What about Russell Branyan?
He should sign somewhere else. But if he doesn’t he could play 1B, 3B and probably LF/RF in a pinch.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 3, 2010 6:03 PM CST up reply actions
I would have loved to see Branyan...
… play a full year at Wrigley in his prime. He had the best year of his career last year for the Mariners. If the Cubs could get him at a bargain rate, that would work for me for a big bat off the bench.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He supposedly wants a 2-year contract, which should work for the Cubs.
He’d be their “backup plan” in case they can’t extend Lee’s contract or sign someone like Pena next offseason.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 3, 2010 7:20 PM CST up reply actions
I thought about Pena when Bradley was being shopped in Tampa
Wouldn’t be a bad idea. He’s not a long term solution though. I feel like having D Lee would be the same
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
Xavier Nady
Thy will be done
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
Hoff seems to be the LH bat
dear god no
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 3, 2010 4:29 PM CST up reply actions
rpete/jesus
who do you repalce him with (as of now)?
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Unfortunately I'm not sure there is a great option
I’d prefer someone that can play both 1st and OF but I’d prefer someone like Church or Catalanatto. I just don’t think Hoffpauir is a good hitter.
Which is interesting...
because most were calling for Hoff to replace DLee before last season on almost every online message board I visited (I’m new here, of course.) They were as crazy as those asking for Big Z to be traded now.
"...but you the living, you're stuck here with the Cubs. So it is ME who feels sorry for you." - Steve Goodman, "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request"
those are the same people that are complaining that fox was traded
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Jan 3, 2010 5:13 PM CST up reply actions
Or...
That Sam Fuld should start everyday,
or that Matt Murton should’ve started over Soriano…
We could be the Pittsburgh Pirates and let all of our small white guys play.
"...but you the living, you're stuck here with the Cubs. So it is ME who feels sorry for you." - Steve Goodman, "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request"
I'm a small white guy!!!!
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
The most infamous Hoff supporter on this site
has since been banned, but he was a real joy.
"Only a mediocre person is always at his best." ~W. Somerset Maugham
he was, well
unique
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Would like to see
Ankiel as backup LH bat OF if he is cheap enough . Now that most of the freeagents have been picked over , maybe he might drop his asking price .. Time is on the Cubs side for this deal ..
I would prefer Ryan Church, I think.
Ankiel may have more upside, but I think Church is a safer bet as a 4th OF
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
Problem is, I would also like a "lefty-masher"
to share time in RF with Dome. He simply can’t be given significant ab’s against lefties. He’s a bad fielder, but Jonny Gomes offensively would be ideal.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
I guess he'd be ok, but I'm working under the assumption that Fuld
would make the team out of AZ. Johnson is a useful player, and with Fuld on the team, he wouldn’t have to play much CF, which is probably good. On the other hadn, I wouldn’t call him a “masher” of any sort. But, .313/.378/463 against lefties isn’t bad, either.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
Right, I understand. And like I said above, Johnson's career line
of .313/.378/.463 against lefties is good. I just would like to see more of a power threat from one of the two backup OF’s. And because of defense, particularly CF defense, I would think that Fuld would get one of the spots.
If Johnson were to come back, the Cubs bench, at this point, would be:
Johnson
Fuld
Baker or Fontenot
Koyie Hill
and perhaps Andres Blanco
That’s not a lot of firepower from the reserves.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
You're right.
I guess I’m figuring on comebacks from Soriano, Soto and Ramirez; that, with Lee, should provide enough power.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It sure would help if we could get away with 11 pitchers, too
That would allow for more a specialized guy like a Daryle Ward (not the 2010 version, of course), or maybe another flexibility-type guy like Eric Hinske or even Fernando Tatis.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
I notice
everyone leaving Hoff off the bench, any reason why?
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Cause he's playing RF.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 3, 2010 10:36 PM CST up reply actions
(covers eyes)
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
If he had hit better last year, I could see him being that
Daryle Ward type guy, but if they’re going to carry a guy who’s really limited defensively, he’s got to hit better than Hoffpauir did.
And, at 30 by opening day, I don’t know if there’s any reason to expect much better from him.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
He swings at too much.
He’s too easy a strikeout to bring up in pinch hit situations. He’s figured out. He’s probably done.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Best answer may be to hold your breath over the middle IF and not have Blanco start the season with the Cubs
and use that bench position for a PH/1B/OF type. But not Hoffpauir – he didn’t do at all well in that occassional role in 2009 and he isn’t good enough to start anywhere.
Al I like Reed Johnson as much as you
But if Byrd is on the team now I just don’t see it. I’d rather have a guy who plays an infield position (preferably a corner position). We already have 2 guys who can do RJ’s job. I wish him well but I don’t think it will happen. Let’s see what Fuld and Colvin can do
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
But, both hit lefthanded.
The Cubs need a platoon partner for Fukudome. RJ would be perfect.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Not necessarily.
If Dome’s going to hit at the top of the order, Fuld might work just fine.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
On those days when Fukudome needs a day off
Move Byrd to right and have Fuld/Colvin in center
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
A lesser version of Church would be
Gabe Gross, guy can post +10 UZR’s in the corners with a great arm and ~.750 OPS from the left side of the plate. Church is superior to him, but if Hendry ends up signing Gross it wouldn’t be a disaster. Cubs just need a guy who can step in for a month during the eventual Sori DL trip and can be a late inning D replacement.
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 3, 2010 6:47 PM CST up reply actions
this sounds about right
but IMHO sit on the $$$ instead and see what we have in ST from our minor leaguers, as well as see who is cut at the end of ST or early in the season (ala Edmonds type of move). We can either make a move early or use the $$$ for a midseason move.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Exactly
Not a bad year to take a page from the Pirates. There will be guys like Church, etc available come February/March.
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
even more available I am sure
come the trade deadline, and having the extra cash would be a good thing
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
True, true
Let’s just hope we’re still in contention by then
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
I like ur thinking Shawn
Ankiel sure would be nice at the right price ..
I agree
No big rush on 4th OF as of now .. I am sure Ankiel wants some big money ..
Not enough interest
By other teams in Ankiel right now .. As we get closer to ST , we will have to wait and see ..
Because it's the middle of winter...
…and I can afford to be optimistic, I went with “4-6 in NL,” even though my more cautious side is telling me the Cubs could land more in the 7-9 range. I have to believe the offense will be better than in ‘09, though. And if the runs allowed can hold steady (maybe the starting pitching won’t be quite as good, but the OF defense should be better), then we should have at least a competitive team to root for.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
The Cardinals have talked about adding Tejada to 3B
but we likely know their offense now. CHONE is bullish on the Cards’ position players. If you compare their 2009 #s to CHONE’s projections, you see everyone either holding firm or getting better.
The Cards also gain a lot from CHONE’s defensive #s, so that that in context when looking at the Total #s at the bottom. For example, I think some people will be surprised to see Brendan Ryan surpassing Ryan Theriot in total value (R150 + defense) at the same level for which Aramis Ramirez surpasses David Freese.
More thoughts later.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
why
would any of that be surprising?
First of all on all players improving their CHONE projection, look at their ages:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2009.shtml
Everyone is either entering towards their prime (young and developing, likely to improve) or IN their prime (26-31), likely to maintain or improve slightly.
This is pretty much what I’ve been saying all offseason. Even if you expect positive regression (for the Cubs) in the hitting that outweighs the negative regression in the pitching, as a team you’re likely to see a declining BASE in terms of projections because of age. While the Cardinals have an improving BASE in terms of projections because most of their players are in their prime or moving into it.
So we had 7.5 games to make up while our base is moving down and their base is moving up, and we’re expecting that all to be made up with the hitting? That’s a big gap…. and its important to remember the 7.5 game difference happened largely when both teams were healthy and currently constructed as is (Holliday was acquired on July 24, Aramis Ramirez returned from injury on July 19th).
The standings on July 25th:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/date/20090725
The Cubs were 1/2 a game back
So from the point the two teams had basically the same players as now, the Cubs were SEVEN games worse than the Cardinals over 67 games
That’s a big gap and that’s what i’ve been saying all offseason.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 6, 2010 8:24 AM CST up reply actions
Well there's nothing surprising or inconsistent here with what I've been saying either.
I’ve been saying that the real Achilles heel of this Cards’ team is pitching health. Where are the Cards if they lose just one of Carpenter or Penny? CHONE pitching link.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
by DGU on Jan 6, 2010 9:56 AM CST up reply actions
they'd still
have a tremendous lead on the Cubs
if they were 7.5 games better in just 67 games last season, they can afford to lose Carpenter and still be slightly better than us
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 6, 2010 10:04 AM CST up reply actions
Do you really find so much predictive power
in 67 2009 games?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
eh...
its not a tremendous sample to work with, and its certainly exaggerating things, but i do think we’re 6-8 games behind the Cards now (rough estimate) over the course of the season
that’s a lot to make up and it would have to not only be an injury to Carpenter but one early in the season to make up that ground
Plus Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick can’t develop/rebound significantly… if they do the Cardinals could be a 95 win team
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 6, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
I'm bullish on Rasmus but bearish on Ludwick.
Rasmus scares me.
But back to the topic I expect to give a lot more thought to when we’re sure neither team is adding more pitching – it’s not just the fact that the Cards could lose one pitcher – it’s the poor replacements on hand, and it’s the disastrous effects injury stacking could have if more than one pitcher goes down.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
injury stacking
is going to have disastrous effects on almost every team
assuming a game-changer like that is going to happen isn’t a fair assumption
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 6, 2010 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
But the Cards have two injury prone pitchers
in their front four and most of their talent is consolidated in 4 players, one of whom is injury prone.
I’m not assuming a game-changer. I’m noting the tenuousness of the Cardinals’ strength.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
i disagree
Penny had an injury once in the last 4 years and has topped 170 innings 3 of the last 4 years
I guess where i get frustrated is the assumption of Cardinals health issues coupled with the assumption of Cubs return to health. Why not the same assumptions for both?
Soriano has had leg injuries in three straight years
Zambrano’s innings total have decreased three straight years
Aramis has missed at least 30 games in 3 of the last 5 years
Lilly is recovering from shoulder surgery and is already out the first month of the season
Angel Guzman is pretty fragile
I just don’t see how the Cardinals injury risk is so much higher than the Cubs for you to continue to cite it as a legitimate reason for optimism
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 6, 2010 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
Brad Penny's ERA the past two years is around 5.50
so maybe in your estimation injuries aren’t the issue and he just stinks.
The difference here is in severity of replacement. If Soriano misses time, we’re not losing much by CHONE’s projections – if anything. If the Cards lose one of their 4 big guys, they’re losing a lot.
Consider it from this perspective. Say the Cubs and Cards both lose their best hitters. Ramirez’ playing time goes to Jeff Baker with Baker’s time going to Blanco, Castro, or Fontenot. If the Cards lost Albert Pujols, his playing time goes to Julio Lugo or Joe Mather? So, if we grant that injury risk is the same – which I don’t grant – then the depthless Cardinals stand to lose a lot more.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
by DGU on Jan 6, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
ok
personally i think you’re grasping at straws a bit, but we can once again agree to disagree here
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 6, 2010 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks for adding the Cards projections...I think.
To be honest, they’re pretty sobering.
Oh, and in case anyone hasn’t visited Fangraphs in the last day or so, they’ve now added the CHONE projections to their player pages.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Yeah -
The position player numbers don’t look good from CHONE’s perspective. I think the Cub hitters fare better in the Bill James projections. Assuming PECOTA gets done this year, it will be interesting to see where they go. CHONE’s a simpler model than PECOTA and PECOTA will take into account things that should help the Cubs.
One example is Derrek Lee. The simplistic view is to just look at Derrek’s age number and say, “He’s in decline.” A lot of people followed that simplistic argument last year to make dogmatic pronouncements that he couldn’t put up numbers better than his 2008 numbers and to fearmonger that he was D-O-N-E.
But Derrek Lee is a physically fit man who had a broad base of tools in his prime, two facts that suggest he is likely to age well. And, lo and behold, he matched the 2005 season #s in 5 months of 2009, something plenty of people jeeringly exclaimed could NEVER happen.
So, there are added details about our Cub players CHONE doesn’t take into account which make me more bullish on Derrek Lee, Jeff Baker, and Kosuke Fukudome, but bearish on Geovany Soto and Ryan Theriot. In particular I want to see Soto and Soriano and Aramis in spring training.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Didn't make myself clear
in that last paragraph. I am more bullish/bearish than CHONE on the players mentioned.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Wow, those projections for the Cards defense seem, um, eccentric
Pujols is worth 61 runs at 1B and Holliday is worth 30 runs in LF?
its Offense + Defense
not just defense
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 8, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
OT: Eric Byrnes
Just released by the D-backs, and I think he’d actually make a decent bench option if the price is right. Splits mean we could potentially utilize him as a platoon partner to Kosuke. Still has some pop left in the bat, would allow Jeff Baker to not be stretched out unless need be. I’ve based Byrnes a bit in the past, but as a bench option that only plays in the corner OF, it wouldn’t be a bad idea, IMO.
Yeah, I saw that on Twitter...
…and was thinking the same thing. He may be an option to consider. Where would you rank Byrnes in comparison to Branyan, Dye and Reed Johnson?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
having not pondered it for more than 5 minutes
I think I would go
1. Byrnes
2. Dye
3. Branyan
4. Reed
I like Reed, but I want to see some pop off the bench. Branyan doesn’t fill much but big bat off bench – ideally, you’d want a bit more usefulness, and I wonder if Russell can maintain his swing without regular AB’s. Byrnes gets the edge over Dye for me as I believe Byrnes can still be a solid enough defensive player in the corner OF spots.
Byrnes....
… ONLY if he is released. You don’t want to be on the hook for his $11 million salary.
After he’s released? Sure, because then you can sign him at the minimum, and just release him if he’s still no good.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Absolutely.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Jan 16, 2010 9:55 AM CST up reply actions
But Branyan can play first base, third base and the corner OF spots.
Isn’t that pretty useful? Or is his defensive reputation that bad?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by 
























