Dramatic Moves to Restructure the Cubs

but the talent the Cubs would bring in return would be considerable.

Don’t get me wrong. Many of you don’t know me and don’t know I’m not a Z “hater.” I love the guy. But if the Mets are really offering this much, and won’t demand the Cubs pay any of Zambrano’s remaining contract, I’d probably pull the trigger.

… of not making a move because said player may go on to have a “stellar season”.

You can’t predict that, and you can’t know if he’d have had the same stellar season in Chicago. It’d be like refusing to move to Hawaii because a tsunami might hit the island. True, sure… but if you live that way, what the hell are you doing in Illinois, where a meteor might hit your house, or in Oklahoma, where a tornado might tear through.

but he does have some risk, and I’d really like to see who the AA prospect is in this deal, especially if we’re taking on Castillo.

Like you, I’m kind of on the fence about whether to move Z with a hesitant lean toward “yes”.

The “problem” is the domino set-up. I don’t think you can make this deal if you don’t have Sheets or, gulp, Bedard “in the bag”. But will guys like that really deal with a “we’ll sign you to this contract if we can make this trade… otherwise never mind unless you halve your salary demands.”?

Same general situation with Chapman, unless you could indeed structure the contract to fit in regardless of the presence of Z. Love the idea of Livan here to caddy for Chapman.

Smoltz is probably less of an issue since there’s basically no market developing. I’m all for bringing him in on a flyer… and wonder if the price might not even be closer to $1.5M than 2.

But don’t doubt Martinez. He’s a legit prospect. #1 in the Mets system in 2007 and 2008, and #3 in that system last year because of injury. He tore up AAA last year as a 20 year old centerfielder. Just because you haven’t heard of him doesn’t mean he’s not worth anything. I think he’s probably on par with someone like Starlin Castro, but I’d like a “prospects expert” to verify/deny that claim.

We’re pretty much DeRosa for Bradley and a closer away from 2008. I’m not so sure our window has closed. Maybe, but I think we have a few more seasons.

What I would like to do is become perpetual contender with a good farm system (like the Red Sox). In theory, and if the "if"s panned out this deal could be a step in that direction, but it’s a big risk.

The really big “?” is Sheets. If he’s healthy, the Cubs won’t miss anything from not having Z in the rotation. If he’s not, the Cubs would probably be in big trouble in 2009. But if the Cardinals sign Holliday (which I think they will) the Cubs will probably be in big trouble anyways. If that’s the case why not build for the future around Chapman and Fernandez (and the Cubs current prospects)? And if you can do that without destroying the 2009 club, why not do it?

in this case, I’m just going with the reports. Jaramillo has said he’s a good 5 hitter. I’m fine with him hitting 2nd, 5, 6th, or even 7th depending on how Soto and Soriano pan out and who else is in the lineup.

good catch.

(hope you’re not buried in snow…)

even though I’m the one that suggested it. The trade itself I would be against. But the whole suite of moves would have me excited for the future.

This team has a decent farm system. If they trade one of their “superstars” (like Z) they’ll have an excellent farm system. You want to sign FA’s around the guys that pan out, and that requires financial flexibility.

Sheets has been out of baseball for a year, and he wants $12M coming back after that?

A bit pricey to me.

I literally have no idea how I did that. Unfortunately, I can’t delete the post. Oh well. Hopefully not too many people get “sidetracked” there.

by moving it off the front page.

I think they’re something like an 84-85 win team. This isn’t a move to improve the 2009 team, but the teams in 2010 and beyond without sacrificing the 2009 club (too much).

That said, I agree with your premise. If you blow up the team and rebuild, you’re better off doing it after this year.

on the lower base (2-4). Then make the incentives for starts, innings, and some quality metric (ERA probably most likely… I don’t see contract incentives being made around “new” stats like ERA+ just yet).

If he’s healthy he will be good, of that I have no doubts.

If he’ll accept a contract with a lower base salary, the Cubs could get him without trading Z. They should offer him a contract to see if that’s the case.

I think one of the orignal reasons for this proposal is that it is assumed Z would accept a trade to the Mets. I don’t think you can make that same assumption for most MLB teams, and I’d include the A’s on that list.

are things I’d try to do regardless of whether Z is traded. I think the Cubs should try to get at least one of those 3 (Sheets, Chapman, and Smoltz), and 2 of them if they can.

Sheets would be the “replacement” for Z.

Like Shawn has noted, I think Smoltz is a worthwhile gamble and fits in the budget regardless of Z’s location.

And Chapman surely isn’t a sure thing for 2010. I would think he would have to spend some time in the minors working on control at least. Just probably need to move some salary (Z) to get his deal done unless they really could get him for $3M on the first year.

it’s not a crazy trade. It is 3 for 1 with two high priced salaries. It isn’t a 5 for 1 or some strange three way deal.

I don’t believe this rumor is going to lead to anything, but it’s a fun idea to discuss.

Which ones? Or are you predicting injuries before they happen?

like Mark DeRosa, of course.

Byrd would become the team’s 4th OF and a platoon partner with Fukudome. The most severe criticisms of the deal were that Byrd was best suited to that type of role anyways, and he’s not making enough money to warrant him blocking a prospect like FMart, so that’s not an issue.

As far as the other criticism, realize that if I post a rumor and suggest it as a course of action, I’ve already gone through all the stats analysis in my head. Maybe it would be better if I broke down the trade rumor that way? In other words, would you be happy if I had broken down the team’s expectations before/after these moves?

but Hendry has been Jonesing for Castillo for years now, and the Mets are looking to dump him. My guess is if Z is traded, it’ll be the Mets, and Castillo will be in the return package.

That would be disastrous to this year’s team. That’s not an argument to trade him… but maybe it is to keep him, given the suggestion of Sheets as his replacement.

still on the payroll?

I don’t understand why some people are so gung-ho to trade Zambrano. I don’t think they’re thinking very clearly.

And if you signed him you probably dump Silva, as they’d play essentially the same role on the 2010 club.

and you’d have some other young arms coming up, too: Cashner, Jackson, and Carpenter. Maybe the team re-signs Ramirez? That would improve that lineup a lot.

Rothchild didnt ruin their careers

during Prior’s time at USC there were a lot of speculation about steroid use in their clubhouse, and Prior was also accused by a few (including Clemens) of it while in a Cubs uniform. Coincidence or not, as the steroid talk got warmer, he became more injury prone, was unable to return from injuries and his calf muscles dwindled to a shadow of what they were prior. Steroids might have kept him healthy and that is why he was unable to return healthy (post roid usage). Notice I say might, I cannot confirm he did or didnt use steroids, but there is some evidence that would point to it. In my opinion there is a 70% chance he used and that is why he has had so many problem post usage.

Wood was drafted with a bad back he injured in high school. Wood also pitched both ends of a double header in high school and threw a lot of innings (likely where his shoulder problem started which later had to be (Tommy John) surgical repaired. The Cubs knew they were drafting a kid who had two good pitches, fast ball, and faster ball. He had other pitches, but like now, they were never consistant, causing him to be more of a thrower less of a pitcher early in his career, causing additional stress on his back and shoulder.

Again, Rothchild is as much to blame as Dusty, his minor league coaches are, which is minimal if even that much. If any coach is to blame it is his high school coaches for pitching him until he was dragging his tongue.

Again for the above

Prior is my opinoin he did not stating a fact he did, do not confuse
Wood stating facts that led to additinal problems over time

…is to trade Carlos Zambrano for SALARY RELIEF and then look to replace his production in the short-term with a reclaimation project like Ben Sheets (who’s every bit as good if not better than Big Z when healthy) and in the long-term with Chapman.

I think this would have been better received if I had just proposed the trade and then laid out the options the Cubs would have in terms of spending that money. Guys like Wang and Piniero would also be option to fill the void left by not having Z.

Yes, please.

Those kinds of terms would be most logical for the team and if Sheets is healty he gets paid.

it will be a nice upgrade.

That said, I’m not sure why everyone pushes Dempster down these rotation lists. He’s our best starter.

is a guy I should have poot in this post. Piniero and Sheets could probably both be had for Z’s salary. They’re a good bet to replace his innings (and then some).

i would think the offense will bemuch better and the pitching will be much better

if you think the Cubs are going to get 75 wins, this is about the best deal you’re gonna get. You should try to trade Lee and Ramirez at that rate, and not sign any FA’s other than Chapman. That would be full-on rebuilding mode time.

what do you think of Sheets? Would signing him make you think this team is any better?

What do you think this team needs to do to get to the playoffs in 2010? Or do you think that’s impossible?

I’ll bet you $100 per game above or below 75 wins for the Cubs next year. Put up or STFU!!

is relying on Silva? It’s already been stated he needs to fight for a spot in the rotation. Christ.

he’s a pitcher with a big body, a good fastball with lots of movement, and good control. Those things seem to be characteristics of pitchers that can be worth something well into their late 30’s.

He needs to get in shape. If that happens, he could have a huge year in 2010.

Z’s agent should pay you a consulting fee.