The importance of elite pitching in the playoffs.
by neifiisgreat on Oct 11, 2010 3:39 PM CDT
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PrintAs the divisional series comes to a close, it is very apparent that elite pitching makes the difference in the playoffs. Minnesota and Cincinnati, two teams with potent offenses and good pitching staffs were swept out of their series by teams with elite pitchers. Roy Halladay's no hitter is the extreme example, but Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Tim Lincecum have all powered their teams to a win. The opposing team has a very slim chance against these elite players, and in the small sample size of a 5 or 7 game series, an elite pitcher gives his team an advantage in up to 3 games. Other teams in the past have been carried by one or two pitchers, the Diamondbacks were one that come to mind, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson carried that team to a title over a superior Yankees team.
Obviously two great pitchers does not a title team make, a good offense and serviceable 3-5 pitchers are needed to get through the grind of the regular season. It is also obvious that the Cubs do not have an elite pitcher. The 2007 and 2008 teams showed this, and the better pitchers on the team are not likely to break through to the next level. Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano, while good, will never be a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. How then do the Cubs acquire this type of player? As with all players there are three ways: Draft/International Free Agency, Trade, or Free Agency.
Draft
The Cubs haven't shied away from drafting pitchers in the first round, drafting Hayden Simpson in 2010 and Andrew Cashner in 2008. I hope they have the sense to keep trying Cashner as a starter, he was going well in AAA, there is still time to develop him. They will have a good chance at a premium college pitcher this season at the number 9 spot. However the numbers show that early round pitching prospects have a higher bust rate than hitting prospects. I would rather the Cubs focus on bats early, and then paying high schools overslot in later rounds to amass quality arms and develop them well enough to get some homegrown aces, or at least players good enough to be parlayed into an ace via trade. It comes down to properly flexing the Cubs financial might in later rounds, recent comments by Mr. Ricketts have hinted at this, we can only hope they follow through. The Cubs can also lavish money on the international free agent market, as many aces come via that market.
Trade
Obviously a premium pitcher commands top prospects, if they are available at all. The only premium pitchers that may be available are Zach Greinke (he has expressed doubts that the Royals will be competitive before his contract is up, the Royals haven't expressed any inclination to move him), and Johan Santana. Greinke may cost a boatload of prospects, but he is signed to a reasonable contract, and is in his prime. Moving to the NL would also likely give his stats a boost as well. I would be more inclined to trade prospects for an ace than for Adrian Gonzalez, whom we can get in free agency a year later. Johan Santana has endured three season ending surgeries in a row, and is owed a boatload of cash, making him a questionable investment, however with the Mets change in management I think there might be an opportunity. Maybe the new Mets management really is ready to blow things up, an expensive ace pitcher with injury problems may not be in their plans. Perhaps the Cubs could roll the dice and move some of their shorter bad contracts for Santana, the long term salary relief being the real attraction for the Mets. The desirability of this move would hinge on how close the Cubs think they are to contention. I don't know that I would acquire a 20M+ per year pitcher with a bad wing, but if they could move some of Fukudome, Silva or others, I would consider adding the long term payroll. Felix Hernandez is one more pitcher who might be moved because his team is too far away to do anything before his contract is up, although I think that is a very long shot.
Free Agency
The big name this offseason to go to free agency is Cliff Lee. The Cubs would have to outbid the rest of the big market teams, and I think its unlikely they would win that contest. The other young aces are signed for a few more seasons, and I think their current teams will make every effort to lock them up long term before they are exposed to free agency.
Obviously the Cubs have many issues, the offense being the biggest among them, but they also lack a knockout ace pitcher as well. Hopefully they are able to draft/develop some premium pitchers long term, but things look a bit rough on this front for the foreseeable future.
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The Cubs aren't going to sign Cliff Lee.
He’s likely staying with the Rangers.
As we have seen, good pitching (Giants, Phillies) can shut down teams in the playoffs. And teams without good pitching (Twins) have failed.
Apart from Lee, and closer Neftali Feliz, the Rangers pitching is pretty average. They’re doing OK in the playoffs.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Cliff Lee is going
to wherever the money is most, I doubt that is the Rangers. Their last megacontracf (A-Rod) didn’t work out too well. I didn’t say the Cubs were going to sign Cliff Lee. Lastly, the Rangers are tied 2-2 in a 5 game series, they are fighting for their life.
by neifiisgreat on Oct 11, 2010 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions
That "last megacontract"...
… was signed ten years ago. Different time, different ownership. The Rangers just got themselves a HUGE amount of money from FSN Southwest — enough for Cliff Lee and then some.
The only other team that can afford Cliff Lee is the Yankees. They could do that, but I’m thinking he stays in Texas.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
whoa, anyway
the notion that the Yankees’ rotation is better than the Twins rotation is kind of wrong.
Twins: Liriano, 3.06 xFIP. ridiculous 6WAR season, Pavano: 4.01xFIP, 3 WAR, Duensing: 3.85 FIP, 4.10xFIP
vs.
Yankees: CC: 3.78xFIP, 5WAR, Petite: 4.05xFIP, Phil Hughes: 4.33xFIP.
You could make a case every pitcher the Twins threw out there in that series was better than any of the Yankees’ pitchers. The Twins just have had some bad luck, but there pitching was arguably better than the Yankees’ pitching. Twins have just had some bad luck for a couple of games.
by Bad Midget on Oct 11, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have a question
seeing that you used sabermetrics and I immediately stopped reading your comment – why isnt Game Score used more often…seems to take account for many of the things that will make a pitcher good
GameScore?
isn’t that the Bill James rating sort of system of how a pitcher did on a particular night.
Wait, here
Game Scores – (James)
Game score is a metric devised by Bill James to show how dominating a pitcher was in any particular game. To determine a starting pitcher’s game score: (1) Start with 50 points. (2) Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched. (3) Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. (4) Add 1 point for each strikeout. (5) Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. (6) Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. (7) Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. (8) Subtract 1 point for each walk.
The top game score in the history of baseball was Kerry Wood’s one-hit, no walk, 20 strikeout performance against the Astros on May 6, 1998. His game score was 105.
It's too simplistic for some things.
Park factors, for instance, are still apart of the score. That’s the beauty of GS, though, IMO; it can be looked at in a quick glance for a cursory understanding of a pitcher’s performance. Stuff like FIP and WHIP and BaBIP can be more helpful in certain situations, but the average Joe can understand GS in about a minute.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I think it overrated strikes
As you might imagine I happen to think control pitchers who force the hitters to ground out are equally if not more impressive.
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 12, 2010 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions
I know you're talking specifically to the player you "stalk",
however throwing a ball that the hitter misses completely (a strike) is much more indicative of ability level then allowing the hitter to make contact (a ground out).
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
I prefer the K
simply because then it completly removes the chance that the batter reaches base, and in a case where a pitcher gets a guy out on strikes with a runner at 3rd there is no chance he scores, with a ground out he might score
by hansman1982 on Oct 12, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
OTOH
… a ground ball can entice a double play — you get two outs on one pitch.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
otoh
your shortstop or 1st baseman can let the ball go through their legs in an in-opportune time and live in infamy (except for the ss thanks to someone being discussed elsewhere)
my quick counter to that
would be that the Yankees offered two guys with good pure stuff (CC/Hughes) whereas the Twins really only have Liriano. Guys like Pavano/Duesing (and don’t forget Scott Baker) are capable season long arms that, paired with a strong pen, win you a lot of games, but I tend to prefer guys with better stuff than that in the postseason, if I had the option that is.
+1,000,000
Liriano is the only guy from the Twins rotation who I could take seriously. Pavano is capable because he’s a good bet, but even then that’s a #3 starter at best.
No stats or anything…and I like to think I’ve embraced the stats movement for years now…would you honestly rather walk into a must win short series with Liriano/Pavano/Duensing over CC/Pettite/Hughes?
The Cubs need to get a prototype talent at pitcher in the system. Thats really all I know about this.
But isn't that all name value right there?
The numbers show Liriano was basically the best pitcher in all of baseball, and Pavano/Duensing, this year, was much better than Petite/Hughes. I just think people see the name Petite or Hughes and think they’re better . Both are adequate pitchers, but I think I would take Pavano/Duensing over those two.
Swing and miss stuff vs pitch to contact stuff
To beat the Yankees in a series you need the former, and unfortunately for the Twins, their starters are the latter for the most part.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 14, 2010 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions
average?
the rangers’ starting pitching isn’t the same quality as that of the giants or phillies, but I wouldn’t mind slotting CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis in at #2 and #3 in the cubs’ rotation. you have an interesting idea of “average” pitching.
You can't be serious.
CJ Wilson is 30. He’s just finished his first year in the Rangers rotation, during which he led the AL in walks allowed. His numbers are decent, but not ace-worthy.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Elite pitching is more important in the playoffs because the games are so spread out.
You can ride Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, for instance, to the World Series title.
Another reason to yell, F YOU, BUD SELIG!
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Yeah, I did like that.
Good idea.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Two things based on your recommendations.
First, I would be very, very wary of Santana. All surgeries are not created equal. Given the history of pitchers returning from shoulder surgery, it is kind of unlikely he ever regains his form as a true ace. He still may be a valuable pitcher, but I would not take on that whole contract unless I was getting some overall salary relief.
As for the draft, I hope the Cubs just take the best players available. You start reaching when you go into a draft thinking “we need to fill position ____” with our first pick. And this upcoming draft seems stronger at the top with arms than bats (granted, a LOT can and will change between now and June).
I do like the oversigning idea, though.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Yeah,
I’m wary of Santana as well, but I wanted to explore the option. The only way I would really seriously consider it was if the Cubs sent Soriano, Silva, Fukudome & Grabow for Santana, Bay and Cash/Beltran. The salaries would have to be more or less equal in total dollars, but the Cubs would be spreading it out over more seasons, adding flexibility in the here and now. The only reason I could see the Mets doing this would be to free up dollars long term, and to trade two big injury question marks (Bay and Santana). It would be an unlikely trade in any case.
by neifiisgreat on Oct 12, 2010 5:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Aside from Cliff Lee
there isn’t much as far as free agent pitching this year that really improves the Cubs staff. However, if we were inclined to take on an injury rebound project, I could see a potential payoff from one of the following:
Javier Vasquez – I’m not sure what was wrong with him other than he can’t pitch for the Yankees. I know he had some dead arm this year, but it seems to be mental, or maybe he just can’t pitch in the AL. Whatever the reason, if he wanted to sign an incentive laden one year deal, I would be interested. He may be cooked, or he may just need the NL. Who knows?
Brandon Webb – He’s risky, hasn’t pitched in two years. But Chris Carpenter had a similar run a couple years ago where he missed two whole seasons, then came back brilliantly in ‘09. If the price is right, he’d have major upside. i know he made some ridiculous statements through his agent about $7.5M+ per year as a base salary, but I don’t think he’ll get that.
Eric Bedard – always injured, supposedly not a great teammate. But, when he’s healthy he’s been good. He’d be low on my list though.
We have a lot of depth in the rotation, so we don’t need to spend a ton on the rotation. But on the flip side, you can never have too much pitching, and if we could get in low on a guy like Webb it could pay big dividends. If he gets hurt, we’ve got plenty of options in Wells/Gorzelanny/Coleman/Cashner. Something to think about. I don’t see the Cubs spending a lot of money this winter, but if one of the above fell in our lap for a good price, why not go for it?
I realize Carpenter and Webb had different injuries
just noting that if he really can get fully healthy, he’s an ace level pitcher and we’ve seen a similar pitcher make his way back to form after a long injury ordeal.
I'd certainly consider Webb if the contract was right.
Low-base, heavy performance incentives in year 1 with a market-value vesting option for year 2, something like that.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
cautious with Webb
its been overlooked but Webb has had to completely reconfigure his delivery to even be able to throw the ball without pain.
As a guy who got by with a HEAVY sinking fastball, I’m extremely concerned that the sink will ever come back from a completely different arm angle.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 12, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, we'd obviously need to see if he can pitch before doing anything.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
All good pitchers...
but none of them are the type of pitcher that you look at in a postseason series as “elite”. The type of guy that gives you an advantage all by himself if you can throw him three times in a 7-game series if necessary. In short, none are in the Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Lee, CC, Lincecum class. Problem is, as was discussed earlier, no pitchers in this class are really available this offseason except Lee, and it would take a miracle for the Cubs to snag him given their payroll problems.
What the Cubs need is to focus this offseason on building a team that can at least get back to the playoffs. With the NL Central being very winnable next year (and maybe with an expanded playoff field) this is not an unreasonable goal. Get a quality veteran starter, a quality right-handed setup guy (allowing you to move Cashner back to a starter), and try to make a huge push for Adrian Gonzalez, if the Padres are going to try to move him. Then, if you’re in contention in June or July, I would explore the trade market for one more pitcher who might be available at that point. That’s when a lot of teams add the finishing touch that makes them capable of winning in the playoffs, not just getting there.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
Very good points...
…and I am going to venture a guess the NL central may be winnable next year with a win total in the high 80’s, but I certainly could be wrong.
The problem is, unless there are some surprises, I think it will be a struggle for the Cubs to approach the 80 win plateau.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Elite pitching is probably the single most
determining factor in a successful run in the playoffs. Above average pitching and a shut down bull pen might keep you in the game, only if a little luck is on your side. Good pitching takes care of good hitting. When the Cubs have that elite pitching, they can move in the playoffs. Until then, we’re watchers.
More reason to remove off days and go to 7 games in the first round. Let the best team win and make them throw all their starting pitchers.
Sandberg for manager!
Good pitching...
…is always important, but I would agree it is magnified a bit in the playoffs.
The other factor to consider, is it appears power pitchers (that throw strikes) do better than non-power pitchers during the playoffs. Look at the Brave’s staffs over the years and some of their command guys didn’t fair as well come playoff time.
I think some of this has to do with colder weather for some of these games (maybe not this year, but in the past). It’s not a lot of fun to take one off the fists in 50 degree weather from a guy throwing 95+, and this puts a hitter in a defensive mode.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Too
bad the Cubs could not have ridden Prior and Wood in ’03. Hey someone had to say it.
Is it April yet?
They pretty much did...
…as far as they could take them anyway.
They did get big time playoff contributions from Lofton as well, and he was a big key to their run.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Greinke
Even though I’m wary of trading for a pitcher with past anxiety disorders (if there is anything that can grate on a persons nerves, its the constant media pressure on the Cubs), I think the Cubs should attempt to make a play for Greinke. He is the only elite pitcher likely to be available in the next few years, and he is coming off a relative down year. The question is, are the Royals likely to deal him? Greinke has expressed unhappiness with the Royals performance, and that he doesn’t expect them to compete before his contract is up. He is signed for two more seasons at 13.5M per season, so while he is a deal, he isn’t a minimum salary steal. If I were to propose a trade I would offer Hak-Ju Lee, Trey McNutt, Randy Wells, Carlos Silva and one of our middling 2B prospects, such as Flaherty/LeMahieu/Watkins in return for Gordon and Greinke. I wou insist on adding Gordon to add depth at 3B in the organization, which is a glaring need in the Cubs system outside of Vitters. This would allow the Cubs to retain their elite prospects like Archer, B Jackson and Josh Vitters. The Royals have a strong farm system, but only have Manny Machado as a good middle infield prospect. Hak-Ju Lee would provide them insurance if Machado has to move off of SS, and Trey McNutt adds another young arm to their stable. SIlva and Wells are live arms to fill out Kansas City’s moribund major league rotation (somebody has to pitch the games until the youngsters come up), and they are relatively effective. Silva has a relatively hefty contract, but he has been effective in the AL Central in the past. I think that if the Royals were to put Greinke on the market another team may offer a higher ranked individual prospect. But I hope the Cubs could offer a good mix of good prospects and useful major league arms, and that might be enough to get ahold of Greinke.
only problem
is HJ Lee is considered a top flight SS prospect…in 2-3 years would be nice to have him and Castro in the middle of the diamond
Yes,
But I’d rather have an ace pitcher than a powerless SS, particularly when Castro is able to handle SS on his own.
by neifiisgreat on Oct 15, 2010 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions
true
although finding a powered ss is hard to do, would also solve the problem at 2b for many many years
I'm one of the biggest Lee fans alive for some reason...
and I’d trade him in a second for a legit ace who isn’t even 30 yet.
I don't believe...
…Hendry will be allowed to trade any top prospects, for anyone.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
The importance of elite pitching in the playoffs
is being illustrated by the Giants so far.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
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