FanPost

Offseason/2011 Draft (strategy)

Offseason:

Basically in short the roster you see today is the 1 you are gonna see start spring training with maybe a few minor moves.

This offseason should be a relatively quite 1 for us. I hear the community calling for signing Adam Dunn or trading for Adrian Gonzalez but niether makes much sense for us at this point from an organization standpoint. As we stand today this is not a roster that is ready to compete in 2011 or even 2012 for that matter.

Dunn is 31 and probably is gonna want a 5-6 year contract (somewhere in the 15-17M/yr range) and as FA shows he will probably get it from someone who panicks or overpays. IF we are ready to compete in 2013 IF our young players develop Dunn  will be 33 and with his body and skill set will be in decline.

Adrian Gonzalez is not gonna come cheap:

http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/sox_make_offer_for_adrian_gonzalez/3437455

Here is what S.D. has been reportedly been offered and turned down. The Cubs cannot match this. Even if this was not offered you can see what it will take to get A-Gon and we do not have the chips to play in that game.

Zack Grienke is on the market but with the state of the Royals minor league system I don't see them taking even the best Cub offer considering what other teams with much better systems could offer. Mind you the Cubs system is more in the 20-25 range then an elite 1.

Overall what I'm saying is we will start 2011 with pretty much the same look as we ended 2010. Best case senario is Armais Ramirez comes out gang busters in 2011 and we can get a couple good prospects for him considering we are not gonna give him another contract. Soriano and Zambrano have unmoveable contracts and eat up close to 20+-some% of our salary and there is no need to add to this.

Draft Strategy:

The Cubs need to adopt the T.B. Rays draft philosophy. We hold the #9 pick in the 1st round and the #9 in the second. These 2 picks need to be used for the highest ceiling guys available. Easy enough I'm sure everyone agrees. The place we need to adjust is rounds 3-8.

Wilken prefers college players and let me start by saying that  I like Wilken and think he has a knack for finding pitchers. The problem I see is outside of the eilte top college players that go in the top 15-30 picks I see little in the way of upside after. Todays 3-8th round H.S. arms are tomarrows studs. Let's take a look at how the Rays have drafted H.S. arms over the past 10 years in rounds 3-8 or later.

Hellickson (4th RD 2005), Wade Davis (3rd 2004), Matt Moore (5th 2007), Jacob McGee (5th 2004),  Nick Barnese (3rd 2007), Jason Hammel (10th 2002), James Shields (16th 2000) and more.

Now with picks 1 and 2 I say go for the best player available but in rounds 3 and later the Rays have shown a propensity to grab H.S. armsor position players who have paid off well.

The Rays generally sign these guys quick and let them spend all of their draft year in rookie ball then proceed to extended spring training and SS ball in year 2. After that they generally let them spend all year in low A no matter how much they dominate. Only after showing they can handle high A the next year, will they get an early promotion to AA. Also they generally let these players pitch over 200 innings in the high minors. Look how carefully they handled college arm and #1 pick David Price.  There is much to be said in there draft strategy and handling of young arms.  

Also we need to take some late round guys who have signability concerns such as the Phillies did with Brody Colvin in 2009. We are a big market team who has the reasorces to spend on players like Colvin/Singleton (Phillies). In short we need to use our reasorces in the draft and not signing FA who will not make us a W.S. contender in 2011.

 

I'll be posting my Cubs top 30 and an early look at the 2011 draft over the next couple days.


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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