MLBTR: Ted Lilly will be a Type A Free Agent

Well, there you have it. We'll see if their reverse-engineering of the Elias Rankings holds up, but they have Lilly in the Type A group, by a pretty large margin.

This is exactly why I was so upset with Hendry for the Lilly trade - 2011 is going to be an absolutely stacked draft, and if we'd kept Lilly and offered arb, we would have had either an extra first rounder, or Lilly on a 1-year deal for 2011.

Instead, we have Blake DeWitt and Kyle Smit. Would you trade both of those guys for a 2011 first rounder? Yes, yes you would.

over 1 year ago D98 21 comments 0 recs |

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Lilly would have accepted arb from the Cubs if offered.

So your upset is misplaced.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 6, 2010 9:37 AM CDT reply actions

That makes no sense.

He’s 35. He’s one of the top pitchers on the market, coming off 2 good-to-great years.

And you think was going to pass on what is, quite likely, his final chance at a multi-year MLB contract so that he can take a 1-year deal with the Cubs?

35-year old pitchers who have the option generally prefer guaranteed money over a series of 1-year deals to finish their careers.

I think that the likelihood of Lilly accepting arb from anyone is very, very low. It would mean, in all likelihood, walking away from $20-30M in guaranteed money.

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by D98 on Oct 6, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions

Let's agree to disagree.

I’m pretty sure he would have accepted arb here — and then negotiated a multiyear deal to stay.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 6, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions

What are you basing that on? It defies convention.

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by D98 on Oct 6, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions

Dude..

..let it go, can’t you see he’s never wrong, you’ll never win :P

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by cubbiebear316 on Oct 7, 2010 1:08 AM CDT up reply actions

Heh.

“Never” is a long time. It usually only takes 2-3 months for these things to sort out. :)

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by D98 on Oct 7, 2010 6:58 AM CDT up reply actions

you can't do that

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by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 6, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions

Sure you can.

Accepting arbitration isn’t the same as going to arbitration.

See this link that looks over the process.

There is a negotiating window before the actual hearing. The Cubs have used this window frequently… and it is why they rarely go to arbitration.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Oct 6, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions

I think what DCF is saying is, Ted couldn't have forced the Cubs to give a multiyear deal.

If Ted had accepted arbitration from the Cubs, he would do so knowing that there would be only one year on the table.

That’s why he would not have accepted.

The Cubs have used the negotiating window pretty frequently, but it’s always to do 1-year deals with players who are under team control prior to their first FA year. I don’t remember us offering arb after a player files, having it accepted, and then negotiating a multi-year extension.

Do you know a time when this has happened? I mean, I’m sure it has, but none come to mind. It seems we usually lock up players prior to their declaring free agency, or we don’t offer arbitration and the player walks.

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by D98 on Oct 6, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Hmm

Can’t say that I can think of someone who wasn’t under player control.

In fact, Hendry seems nearly petrified of offering arbitration to anyone who isn’t under club control.

That said, it certainly could be done.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Oct 6, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions

yeah my point was

he’d either accept arb OR agree to a multi year extension

he wouldn’t do both….

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by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 7, 2010 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions

No he wouldn't

Unless he was certain the Cubs would offer him a 3 year deal. Lilly liked playing in Chicago and made it clear he wanted to negotiate an extension but he is not an idiot and he does not take Arb unless he gets the deal he wants.

That said I don’t think the deal was terrible. I will be interested to see who Lilly signs with and what the Dodgers get for him.

"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Oct 6, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions

Here is Mr. Dumb again asking a question that everyone knows but me...

If a team signs a Type A FA, doesn’t the team that had him before get an extra first-round draft pick? So if the Cubs sign Lilly, then the Dodgers then an extra pick in the first round, am I right?

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by Cubbiegoon on Oct 6, 2010 11:08 AM CDT reply actions

Sort of.

Check this.

If the Dodgers offer him arbitration and he declines… and then signs with the Cubs (or any other team with a top 15 pick), the Dodgers would get a compensation pick “between” the 1st and 2nd round as well as the “Cubs” 2nd round pick.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Oct 6, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

Before you jump to too many if's, and's or but's

Lilly with Cubs: 3-8
Lilly with Dodgers: 7-4

There is no guarantee he would have been Type A if he remained with the Cubs. The Cubs did play better once Lou left so it is likely Lilly would not have finished 6-16 but that was the pace with the Cubs.

"I knew when I left that restaurant that night that he was our guy." ~ Cubs GM Jim Hendry, Jan 2009.

by rlpete on Oct 6, 2010 2:21 PM CDT reply actions

It's not just the W-L records...

… Ted had slightly better stats with the Dodgers, playing in a pitcher’s park. His ERA was lower (although his ERA+ was also lower, meaning slightly worse), his WHIP was lower, his BB/K ratios were better.

Now, we don’t know how he would have done had he remained with the Cubs after Lou’s departure. But his overall 2010 season was pretty good, despite the 10-12 W-L record.

Incidentally, his run support didn’t improve in LA — he finished third to last in run support per start (3.0); the only NL starters with lower run support were Johan Santana (!) and Ross Ohlendorf (who only made 21 starts).

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 6, 2010 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Ted's 2009 almost guaranteed his Type A status.

It’s a two-year average that Elias uses, right?

Granted, his good run for LAD didn’t hurt. But the fact that Ted’s 2010 ERA dropped from 3.69 to 3.52 for the last 12 starts of a 2-year period probably doesn’t throw off the calculus. Especially when, as here, the stats guys have him WAY inside the Type A range.

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by D98 on Oct 6, 2010 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions

nothing was guaranteed

he was just shy of type A prior to the trade according to the re-engineered updates traderumors does

his performance with the Dodgers pushed him over

go back and re-read stuff at the time of the trade, it was certainly a question of whether he’d end up an A or a B

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by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 7, 2010 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions

I was involved in those conversations.

The general consensus was, “if Lilly winds up a Type A, then we screwed ourselves over.”

We still don’t know if he’s going to be Type A or Type B, but the statheads think we may have screwed ourselves over on this one.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Oct 7, 2010 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions

screwed ourselves over is too strong

and i’m not sure what “group” i fall into, but my general opinion was we would’ve won the trade easily if Lilly was a type B and lost by a little if Lilly was a type A

DeWitt’s value as a cost-controlled 2b/utility player while not the excitement of a top prospect and is generally being underrepresented (in my opinion)

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by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 7, 2010 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions

IF the Cubs had not traded Lilly,

does anyone think that the Cubs would not have offered Lilly a multi-year deal? The Cubs don’t treat players that way – thanks for your 3 years of service, but we’re going to offer you arbitration in the hope that we get a compensation pick for it.

Oh, and how come no one mentioned that Ryan Theriot would still be a Cubs if Lily was not traded?

"They come to see me strike out, hit a home run, or run into a fence. I try to accommodate them at least one way every game." - Gorman Thomas

by RiskyBusiness on Oct 7, 2010 11:42 AM CDT reply actions