Your Chicago Cubs: 2013

Soto + bat at 1B.

Getting his offense at C is worth way more to the franchise. If Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada can play C into their 30’s then there’s no reason Soto can’t.

pencil in Adrian Gonzalez at 1st and Soto at catcher?

I think I read an interview somewhere where he said he actually preferred to be called Kenneth.

“Now as always this won’t be what we will probably actually look like because of FA, trades, and prospects not panning out. "

and

“Of coarse not everyone is gonna pan out and other changes will be made but this is just me dreaming away.”

I’d say

C – Within the organization – likely Soto and someone, but there’s enough backup catcher types in the upper levels.

1st – Likely not in org right now.

2nd – Likely not in org right. Cubs seem to prefer flaherty for a utility role, and they like LeMahieu at 3rd. Both will get opportunities to prove themselves. Lee’s timeline puts him as more a mid-season guy, unless he makes big leaps. Otherwise, he’s more 2014 as of now, IMO. Junior Lake is one possibility, as he will likely be in AA next year, but there’s a lot of offensive consistency work needed. A sleeper to watch may be Matt Cerda, but like Lee, 2014 is more realistic as of now, IMO.

SS – Castro

3rd – The 3rd base chart for the system is … intriguing. I know there are some that slowly believe that Marquez could be a starting 3rd baseman. I have my doubts, but I hope I’m wrong. Vitters 2011 will give us a clearer picture as to whether or not he can takeover at 3rd by 2013. He has to show progress, and I hope the Cubs keep him for most of the year in AA. The Cubs are working on strengthening DJ LeMahieu and adjusting his swing for more power. If the changes work, he could be an option at 3rd for 2013. Junior Lake is another possibility. that said … Vitters/LeMahieu/Lake have such big question marks (and Flaherty could go in that mix) surrounding them right now, that 3 years is no guarantee that anyone of them can develop into a capable starting 3rd baseman by 2013. Marquez could perhaps be used as a stopgap for a year.

If I had to take a guess right now, I’d say outside the org. I have a hard time seeing the club turn it over to say, Marquez Smith in 2012 (prove me wrong Marquez). Why does that matter? Well, after Aramis leaves , if they aren’t ready to turn it to Marquez, the chances are high that they’ll sign a FA, someone that will likely want perhaps a 2 year deal.

CF – Brett Jackson. Assuming he doesn’t struggle to start 2011, he’ll be given the chance to own the job sooner than later – perhaps as soon as 2011.

RF/LF – This one’s tough. I wouldn’t be surprised if they might go with say, 3 guys rotating between the two spots (Soriano being one of them), which might be another year for Colvin. By 2013, if Ricketts is willing to eat money, the Cubs might be willing to eat Soriano’s contract at that point. Realistically, my guess as of now would be one FA signing, probably in RF, and some sort of combination in the other spot. Keep in mind that Colvin will be in his arb years, so if his production is pedestrian, the idea that Colvin may not be here is something to ponder at that point.

Starting rotation – I have my doubts that Dempster will be here. Big fan of the guy, great leader for the clubhouse. Assuming he’s pitching well, he’ll likely want a multi-year deal … in his mid-30’s. I have my doubts Z will be back. I’ll surprise (at least I think I’ll surprise some) and guess that Randy Wells will still have a spot. He won’t be in FA just yet. I know there’s a lot of talk about how Wells has a tenuous hold, but I’ll still be a tad surprised, even if he’s high maintenance (something Bruce mentioned in his Wells blog post yesterday) if the Cubs let him go. He should still be a solid innings eating rotation arm.

As for the rest … it’s really hard to guess what the Cubs think on Cashner. He has the most starting upside of any young arm in the system, including McNutt and Archer, but it’s quite possible that he’s the closer in 2013. I think the Cubs will have added at least 2 veteran starters from outside the org by 2013. I’ll guess 2 young arms are filling rotation spots, and I’ll go, in perhaps another surprise, with Chris Rusin as one of them. Rusin’s a low ceiling arm, but he’s a lefty with a good arsenal and throws strikes. There’s a chance the Cubs may want a lefty in the rotation at that point. The other spot, my guess would be Archer.

The pen – My guess is that Marmol is gone. Unless I am not counting correctly, Marmol should be up for FA. It seems unlikely that the Cubs will buy out a FA year as of now. Do you keep him around at his age if he’s extremely expensive and you have intriguing enough pen options? It’s not impossible, but if I’m guessing right now, my hunch, as much as I hate it, is that Cashner will be the closer, with Carpenter/Jay Jackson perhaps in pen roles setting him up. The Cubs have enough upper level lefties that at least one pen lefty role should be from within. It’s possible they sign a vet or two to join those guys, although I’d be fine going internally to fill out the pen.

Just some guesses.

yes you can make cases for some guys being in the pen or being SP. I do like Cabrera also forgot him. Basically this was really a rough draft of what we have today. And of coarse a team being all in house guys is unrealistic but knda fun to dream on things. More to the point I was really trying to make is basically if we stay outta the FA markett, at least for long term contracts and seeing how things will shake out we could have serious payroll and roster flexiability in 2013 and from that point make some moves via FA or trade to fill in what doesn;t pan out.

Cashner should start. He’s got the best upside there of anyone in the organization.

I have a positive intuitive feel about Hayden Simpson, and I think he’ll show up quick. I’m surprised to see how much of the young talent I like. I’m on the LeMahieu bandwagon too.

You know I was under the thinking that Lee could move Castro to 2B also but after reading a lot of what has been written by scouts combined with what I saw from Castro in the ML it looks more realistic that Lee would be the 1 to move. I know Castro had a lot of E’s but I saw him make some real tough plays. Figure the kids just 20 and defense usually requires repetition to get better.