2011 Bill James Cubs Projections
by Al Yellon on Nov 10, 2010 1:30 PM CST
in Chicago Cubs News
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The cover of the Bill James 2011 Handbook features the Reds' Joey Votto. Last year's edition featured the Rays' Evan Longoria, who went on to a fine year and led his team to the postseason. Let's hope that isn't the case for Votto in 2011.
Every year, James posts projections for future performance. His chapter this year, as it does every year, runs down both some of his biggest misses (mostly, from projecting players to play full-time and they didn't, either from injury or bad performance) and also the ones he got right. What's notable about this is that only one Cub -- Micah Hoffpauir -- is mentioned by James in either category. James projected Hoffpauir to be a useful spare part, hitting .276 with a .487 SLG in 156 AB with seven home runs.
That'd have been useful, all right, but it didn't come close. After the jump, some (not all) of the Bill James projections for Cubs hitters and pitchers for 2011.
Jeff Baker: .281/.336/.448 in 366 AB; 24 doubles, 11 HR, 51 RBI
(Comment: this one's likely to be a huge miss)
Marlon Byrd: .281/.339/.428 in 566 AB; 35 doubles, 14 HR, 72 RBI
(Comment: Looks about right)
Starlin Castro: .310/.359/.428 in 565 AB; 39 doubles, 4 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB
(Comment: we'd all be real happy with this)
Tyler Colvin: .259/.307/.471 in 514 AB; 25 doubles, 24 HR, 75 RBI
(Comment: that'd be good, too)
Blake DeWitt: .252/.327/.372 in 341 AB: 17 doubles, 6 HR, 40 RBI
(Comment: I think he'll be better than this and get more time. You may disagree)
Kosuke Fukudome: .263/.367/.431 in 490 AB; 34 doubles, 14 HR, 60 RBI
(Comment: If this is it, they really do need to deal him)
Aramis Ramirez: .275/.342/.498 in 472 AB; 28 doubles, 24 HR, 89 RBI
(Comment: this is clearly influenced by his last two injury prone years. He'll be better)
Alfonso Soriano: .257/.317/.474 in 483 AB; 31 doubles, 24 HR, 66 RBI
(Comment: influenced by injury filled 2009; he will be better, I believe)
Geovany Soto: .276/.373/.486 in 434 AB; 29 doubles, 20 HR, 72 RBI
(Comment: works for me)
And, just for grins:
Adam Dunn: .247/.373/.511 in 587 AB; 31 doubles, 39 HR, 102 RBI
Adam LaRoche: .261/.333/.470 in 536 AB; 38 doubles, 24 HR, 86 RBI
Casey Coleman: 6-7, 4.11. 23 games, 15 starts, 114 IP, 44 BB, 59 K
(Comment: skewed by his relief appearances in 2010. If he makes the team, it'll be as a starter)
Ryan Dempster: 12-11, 3.83. 34 games, 34 starts, 199 IP, 89 BB, 192 K
(Comment: probably about right, except I think he can drop that ERA about half a run)
Tom Gorzelanny: 7-8, 4.06. 28 games, 26 starts, 133 IP, 56 BB, 106 K
(Comment: too low on the W-L record; like Coleman, he'll start if he's on the team)
Carlos Marmol: 6-4, 42 saves, 3.14. 79 appearances, 83 IP, 51 BB, 105 K
(Comment: too high on appearances and IP; too low on strikeouts)
Sean Marshall: 4-4, 0 saves, 3.84. 75 appearances, 68 IP, 25 BB, 56 K
(Comment: he'll probably pick up a random save or three. Also, the ERA looks too high)
James Russell: 2-4, 0 saves, 5.71. 61 appearances, 52 IP, 15 BB, 39 K
(Comment: they don't have a lot of data to go on. This could be one of their big misses a year from now, because I think Russell is on target for a big improvement)
Carlos Silva: 6-9, 4.80. 24 games, 24 starts, 133 IP, 25 BB, 61 K
(Comment: impossible to project, really, based on his injury history)
Randy Wells: 11-12, 4.12. 31 games, 31 starts, 211 IP, 65 BB, 152 K
(Comment: that projection gives him an average of seven innings per start. If so, he'll be a lot better than the projected numbers)
Carlos Zambrano: 14-11, 3.67. 33 games, 33 starts, 221 IP, 100 BB, 188 K
(Comment: too high on the walks, I think. I'm projecting Z to have a big year in 2011)
And just for grins:
Kerry Wood: 4-3, 25 saves, 3.48. 57 games, 62 IP, 28 BB, 69 K
(Comment: that'd be a decent year for him as a closer; he could possibly be one somewhere. Obviously, his numbers would be different in a setup role)
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Comments
How can this guy make honest projections?
Doesn’t he work for the Red Sox? I’ve read a few of his books but that was pre Red Sox advisory role that i heard he took.
John
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by Ionnes on Nov 10, 2010 1:50 PM CST reply actions
He's a consultant, but that doesn't mean his system is biased...
any more than any other projections. While he likely oversaw the process, I’m sure an algorithm and his aides are spitting thsi out.
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Really interesting. Some questions, Al.
1) Why would you expect Kosuke to do better than .263/.367/.431 with 14 HRs and 60 RBI? He went .263/.371/.439 in 2010 with 13 HRs and 44 RBI, which is pretty much what James projected. And the projection is better than Kosuke’s career average of .259/.368/.410. And I think we often forget that Kosuke will be 34 next season.
2) The win total for Dempster seems low.
3) I don’t expect much more than the projections do from Aramis and Soriano, given their injury histories. I certainly don’t expect both guys to exceed the projections (which frankly weren’t that bad).
4) If Wood has a chance to close, would he really come back to Chicago, presumably for less money, to set up for Marmol?
Where did I say Fukudome would be better than that?
Read my comments again.
Regarding Wood — sure, if he gets an offer to close, he’d likely take it. I just don’t know if he will or not.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I sort of inferred your meaning.
Sorry, if I got it wrong. But when you said, “If this is it, they really do need to deal him,” I thought you had some expectations that Kosuke would be better.
it is interesting that your take on Colvin vs. Fukudome
Tyler Colvin: .259/.307/.471 in 514 AB; 25 doubles, 24 HR, 75 RBI
(Comment: that’d be good, too)
Kosuke Fukudome: .263/.367/.431 in 490 AB; 34 doubles, 14 HR, 60 RBI
(Comment: If this is it, they really do need to deal him)
Fukudome’s line would produce more runs than Colvin’s line would and by a wide margin. In addition Colvin’s line would be a step back and a rather significant one in the plate discipline department (about 10 pt net loss in spread between BA and OBP)
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 3:12 PM CST up reply actions
Even if Colvin isn't as statistically valuable as Kosuke ...
and I have serious doubts about that, trading Kosuke (presumably) would save a lot of money and opens a spot for a guy who actually has a future as a Cub past 2011.
It’s not just Colvin versus Kosuke. It’s Colvin and the player(s) we get from the Kosuke savings versus Kosuke. And that’s just for 2011.
by elgato on Nov 10, 2010 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Saving $
I am pretty skeptical of that part. Realistically, what are other teams going to value him at, maybe $5M?
I am not much of a fan of the “take-on-an-equally-bad-contract” type of trade unless a team really needs to get rid of a guy. This could be in a sour way (MB) or in the case of a blocked prospect/surplus (Thome to the Sox).
If the Cubs sign a 1B and move Colvin to RF full time then that makes sense to deal Fukudome. However, we had better then be bringing in a 1B who we are confident will be a better investment than Fukudome.
To me, that would be Dunn on the FA market, Gonzalez or possibly a roll-the-dice type trade such as Kila Ka’aihue (note, I know nothing about him, so that is just an example). Outside of that, LaRoche, Pena, Nady, etc. none of those guys make any sense as I think Fukudome will outperform them.
Eamus Ursuli!
True...
But I was going to post what DCF did in regard to Al’s comments.
Why would we look at KF’s line and say “that’s it?” while being pleased with a step back for Colvin? That doesn’t make sense.
Further, the projection is for 500+ ABs for Colvin… which means KF isn’t really “in the way”.
Speaking of ABs… is something likely amiss in those projections? James has 2053 ABs projected between the four OFs. The number itself isn’t a gross overestimate (works out to 12.7 ABs per game… about 4.2 per OF position, allowing for some PH). But it just seems like a lot of ABs. I mean I guess it would be a good balance… 483+ ABs for each.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
"Why would we look at KF’s line and say "that’s it?" while being pleased with a step back for Colvin?"
It does make sense. Colvin is a young guy who is improving. Kosuke will be 34 by the end of April. I’m pleased with the projections (and I’m guessing Al is too) because we see Colvin continuing to develop, whereas Kosuke looks to be the same (maddening, IMO) player he has been for two seasons.
in this scenario
Colvin would not be improving, he would be taking a step back
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
In the Bill James projections, that's true.
But Colvin has a bigger upside (IMO) than a 34-year-old outfielder who has never lived up to expectations.
ok
you’re now switching the discussion
the discussion was centered around why one player (the one perceived with upside) taking a step back and performing below another player (the one without upside) would be viewed drastically different. One we’re fine with, the other needs to go immediately. It’s a disconnect
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Fine.
But you always go back to this and it isn’t really the point. You seem to infer that keeping KF hinders Colvin. But WHY?
If they both get 490+ ABs (with Colvin slotted for 514 in this projection), how does that hamper Colvin’s development?
And, as noted below, the James’ projection is a step back for Colvin, not progression. Now, of course, a projection is just that. But that’s why my comment was about Al’s comments… which were in effect assessing in hindsight the 2011 season. And if those were the exact numbers, I don’t get why we would be excited about Colvin regressing while cursing Kosuke.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I get the general argument
but I do have to ask why people assume that the Cubs would save any money in a Fukudome trade? All the tea leaves so far have hinted at swapping bad contracts. Fine for opening a spot up, I guess, but won’t necessarily help their budget. And even if they do, I don’t sense that it will be enough to acquire “players” with.
Honestly, if the Cubs want Colvin to play, just play him. You don’t have to trade Kosuke to do it.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
If Kosuke is as valuable as his defenders say he is ...
why wouldn’t another team pay $5 million or $6 million on a 1-year flyer? I don’t think Kosuke’s very valuable, but I think enough people think he’s valuable that somebody would be willing to give him a chance.
Also, you’d want to trade Kosuke to save that money AND to open a bench spot for a player who’s better suited to the bench — possibly, someone who can play at least one corner infield position.
If that's all Kosuke brings to the table ...
wouldn’t we be crazy to allow Kosuke to block Colvin?
I think we're having trouble
with the concept of “sunk cost”. It’s very silly to say that Colvin is being blocked simply by the presence of Kosuke. If the Cubs want him to start, then just say “we’re benching Kosuke”. What’s the problem?
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 3:43 PM CST up reply actions
Because maybe you can deal him and not pay $14 million for a bench player.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
sure
but … let’s say you deal Kosuke …
a) The chances of someone eating the entire contract is fairly slim.
b) you would then have to sign a replacement because we simply don’t have many guys capable of filling a 4th OF role … let alone a stopgap OF role in the upper minors right now (okay, this is being a little snippy, which I acknowledge).
I’m fine with dealing Kosuke, but the only way the Cubs should do it is if they get enough savings to justify it, which means that the savings from Kosuke can be utilized to add enough other assets (and preferably better than the Aaron Miles type) to compensate.
Do I think they will hold themselves to such a strict line? No.
Based on the projections
Colvin would get 500+ ABs while KF would get 490.
How is that blocking???
Reading the tea leaves of these projections… the Cubs would be running a true OF rotation among their 4 OFs… kind of like what they said they were going to do last year.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
We're having a disconnect.
Al and I are speaking about Colvin and Kosuke generally when it comes to playing time. You guys are basing your comments on the projections, which seem funny given the amount of playing time both guys are expected to get.
The projections are ok. There are enough ABs to go around.
If you figure each of the three OF bats 4 times a game (a rough, but usable estimate), you would get 1,944 ABs for your starting OF. Sprinkle in some PH appearances and you can probably reasonably call it 2,000 ABs.
As I noted above, James’ total adds up to 2,053. So pull 12 ABs from each OF and the math easily works.
Last year those four guys had 1,792 ABs.
Byrd 580
Sori 496
Colvin 358
Fukudome 358
But don’t forget… we had a lot of Nady in the OF (looks like he had ~175 ABs before “moving” to 1B) and then the miscellaneous ABs for Snyder, Fuld, etc. There’s enough ABs for 4 OFs if you use them exclusively.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
And that's why I don't see KF "blocking" Colvin.
You could do something like this over the course of a 10 game stretch:
Sori: 7-8 starts in LF
Byrd: 8-9 starts in CF
Colvin: 3-4 starts in RF, 1-2 in CF, 2-3 in LF (7-9 total)
Dome: 6-7 starts in RF
That would get everyone their ABs… particularly when you remember that whoever doesn’t start is more than likely to grab a PH appearance.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Trouble is ...
moving Kosuke is a way (presumably) that the Cubs could get some payroll flexibility. So really, what would be more valuable:
- your four-man outfield rotation Soriano, Byrd, Colvin + the returning player and/or money from trading Kosuke
-
Well, as we've debated before...
and is ongoing in this thread…
I just don’t think you’re getting much in players or relief from trading KF. If I’m wrong, I’ll be thrilled. In one of the other threads… a KF + some $ for DeRo swap might be workable.
But on a larger point, you still need a 4th OF since everyone needs a break and Sori will likely make his seemingly annual trek to the DL. So the choices are really:
Keep the current 4 guys and let KF’s contract roll off after this season. OR…
Trade KF, get a little bit of $ relief and/or another “average” player in return and then have to spend a good chunk of the savings on a “veteran” 4th OF (presumably… I don’t think the Cubs are ready to turn that spot over to Guyer and Fuld isn’t really suited to be a 4th OF).
As I’ve said on numerous other occasions… if the Cubs can find a deal for KF that makes sense, sign me up. Where we seem to differ is I don’t want to move him just to move him.
In this line of the thread I was only taking exception to this, IMO incorrect, notion that KF “blocks” Colvin from getting enough ABs to develop.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
And you've made your point on that.
I just find it amazing that such a valuable player can’t be traded for anything that we’d want. But as others have noted, Kosuke might be a valuable but untradeable player.
Only the Cubs would be in such a position.
He's not really tradeable
because of the contract. On the FA market, I think a team in need of a LH RF gives him $6-8 mil. So they may be willing to take him and pay half the salary, but unlikely to take him, pay half the salary AND provide a useful player in return. For that, the Cubs would have to eat $10 mil. or so of the salary, and what’s the point of that if he’s worth $6-8?
by SouthWabashSoul on Nov 10, 2010 9:18 PM CST up reply actions
No, I know that's not what Damen is suggesting.
But others on BCB have recently.
That's pretty much
the long and short of it.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 3:40 PM CST up reply actions
Well, 6 million dollars will get you
a pretty decent full-time player in this market, so it’s a touch pricey for someone looking for a fourth outfielder/platoon partner.
But really, this doesn’t answer my question. It’s nice to talk about trading Fukudome, but there’s been nothing to suggest that the Cubs would save any meaningful money in the process. Personally, I keep hearing bad contract taken back, and the Cubs tried that "split the difference trade strategy last season for Kosuke, and got frequently shot down, as I recall.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 3:40 PM CST up reply actions
Here's what I'd do.
Call the Giants and see if the Cubs can send Kosuke and $3 million to SF for Mark DeRosa (assuming DeRo is healthy). DeRo becomes your fourth outfielder, your backup corner infielder and a guy who can do the bench thing.
Kosuke goes to San Francisco — a team that wants to get more left handed (Sabean said that recently) and a team that might not re-sign Pat Burrell, wants to re-sign Aubrey Huff and will likely bring back Fontenot and Ross through arbitration. As long as Sandoval/Fontenot is enough for the Giants at third, it makes sense — at least from a fantasy baseball perspective.
Man,
you don’t have to sell me on Fukudome trade scenarios. I get it, and really, I can probably support it. I just don’t see the Cubs saving a ton of money in the process.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe not a ton.
But even a third of that deal in savings would help.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
you're assuming
players back AND savings for Fukudome?
good luck.
I’ve said it since mid last season the only OF we had (to clear room for Colvin) that was tradeable is Byrd.
Fukudome’s not bringing anything back without us eating half of the contract
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
And yet everyone crows about his value.
So which is it — is Kosuke pretty good player, or one that a team wouldn’t even pay $5 million or $6 million for?
he's not someone another team goes out and tries to get
because he has a no trade clause, he’s a severe platoon split player, and generally he’s an inbetween player
for contending teams he’s not elite enough to make a difference, and for rebuilding teams he’s old enough and the production is middling enough that he’s just taking up space
he’d be a good guy for a small market contending team trying to cut pennies to target, but that’s a limited marketplace
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
he’s a severe platoon split player
Is he really though?
in 2008 his OPS split vs RHP/LHP was .743/.725 – 127 ABs against LHP
in 2009 his OPS split vs RHP/LHP was .838/.532 – 55 ABs against LHP
in 2010 his OPS split vs RHP/LHP was .804/.855 – 42 ABs against LHP
His career OPS splits vs RHP/LHP of .794/.702 are artificially being weighted down by his brutal 55 ABs vs LHP in 2009. I think its a bit of a myth that Kosuke is bad against LHP.
Maybe he would get exposed in more ABs against LHP, but 2008 suggests that not to be the case.
Either way, I’m not sure Kosuke has more value than a Jonny Gomes on the low salary end or a Johnny Damon on the high salary end.
I don’t think the Cubs could get more than $3M in salary relief for Kosuke.
Really, it's both
but the market has simply changed over the last three years, and the price/performance dynamics are very different now.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 3:46 PM CST up reply actions
it's not that he doesn't have his uses
but he can’t hit lefties.
he’s limited defensively to RF and UZR says his defensive value disappeared last year.
he’s prone to prolonged slumps
he’s owed a lot of money, and his contract includes a lot of extra perks.
he has no trade protection.
i’d guess that a team wouldn’t be willing to pick up more than $2 million of his salary.
by circuitclout on Nov 10, 2010 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
SSS, but...
Just based on the “eye test”, he made adjustments to hang in there longer against lefties.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
I noted the SSS and linked to a source.
He just looked better against LHP last year. The helicopter appeared far less often.
Could he keep up a .850? Highly doubtful.
But Prince Fielder was .668 in 199 AB last year… and I don’t think anyone is calling for a platoon there.
And KF can sit most days against LHP, anyway.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
the important number
is that he was limited to 50 ABs against LHP last year.
and seriously, no one is calling for a platoon in milwaukee, but that’s probably because fielder has hit 253/336/458 in his career against LHP.
by circuitclout on Nov 10, 2010 4:28 PM CST up reply actions
That's fine... and I was mostly kidding about Prince... I forgot my sarcasm font.
But this is where you have to put math and scouting together. KF has been bad in his career against LHP. No doubt.
However, in 2010, he looked improved to the point that you don’t have to automatically take him out against a lefty. Sure, ideally you still put in another hitter… and it is a great time to “rest” KF.
Shut up Joe Morgan.
Kosuke also needs significant rest.
So it makes sense to sit him against lefties. But his need for rest is just another reason I don’t think he’s a very good player. At least, not a very valuable one.
I'm sure that the Cubs hope that Wood does, so that they won't have pressure to sign him.
so that they won’t have pressure to sign him. That would make too much sense.
Don't agree with some things...
I don’t know anyone who would be happy with Colvin posting a .307 OBP, even if he does hit with pop. That’s way too many outs for someone who’s likely batting in the upper half of the lineup.
Also don’t know why the Cubs “really need” to deal Kosuke for reasons other than payroll. His .367 projected OBP his higher than everyone save Soto, and no one really approaches that. Given that’s the most important offensive skill, I think Kosuke serves purpose.
Also, I wouldn’t worry about W-L record; the stat is meaningless and impossible to project. Who cares how many wins Player X has? It doesn’t tell us anything about the player or his performance.
Also, Bill James projections are notably optimistic, so if that’s what he projects, I assume MARCEL/CHONE will be lower; either way, doesn’t look good for 2011.
Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net
Under .800 OPS from a starting corner outfielder?
me not happy. And If the Cubs really get sub-.800 OPS from all three spots, then I think it’s gonna be a LONG year.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
I agree that its bad
And I would clearly have someone better. Still, OBP > SLG, and our team isn’t too bad on power, when you consider Soriano, Colvin, Ramirez, and Soto.
Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net
Well, it's just projections
- and really, I threw my hands up with Bill James after he projected Murton and Cedeno to be .300 hitters - but the notion of a bunch of solo homers in 5-3 losses just makes me weep.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2010 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
Its not like Hoff got a chance to do that, whether he should have been on the team or not.
It was much more important to play a useless Nady.
Wait, you didn't like Nady getting playing time down the stretch?
Why didn’t you talk about this a lot earlier? This is valuable info!
Why would anyone think Soriano's stats would be better?
That looks about right. He is on the downward spiral of his career, things are not going to get better.
CF
the FA market for CF is basically rick ankiel and jim edmonds so if the cubs are going to move an OF they might as well look to move marlon byrd. i’m not sure that colvin can stick in center long term but he’d likely be serviceable out there for a year.
The Braves could use any OF help
I’m sure there are others. Brett Jackson may be ready to play in the majors in 2011, so that further increases our OF depth.
Trading Colvin shouldn’t be off the table, either. He’s okay, but someone who makes outs 70% of his PAs is a real drag; and at age 26, he’s not going to be improving as much. He’d be a good sell high candidate (as is Byrd) given that you see very few people with maintained success with such a low walk rate and such a high strikeout rate.
Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net
Nitpicking, but Colvin just turned 25 on September 5th.
He’ll be 25 next season, not 26. But I agree that he shouldn’t be “off the table.” I still don’t see the Cubs trying to trade him this off-season. He’s a former first-round pick and I believe they’ll give him an opportunity to improve on last season (and he better pick up the OBP) and develop into our future right or left fielder.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
just guessing
ATL
NYM
CWS
BOS
TBR
LAD (if they trade kemp)
PHI (if they lose werth)
by circuitclout on Nov 10, 2010 2:05 PM CST up reply actions
Unless the Phils trade Ibanez
Dominic Brown will take over the 3rd OF spot.
Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net
Edmonds?
He got hurt near the end of the year. I think he’s done.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Uh oh ... you know what that means.
Jim Edmonds will rake for the Chicago Cubs in 2011!!!
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started in May of 2010, you’re now the 2nd member
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
i'll get to work
on a secret handshake.
or maybe we could just reprise the atlanta falcons’ dirty byrd dance.
by circuitclout on Nov 10, 2010 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
i look forward to it!
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 9:21 PM CST up reply actions
If the Cubs are going to trade Byrd, its got to be
prior to this season or before the deadline, I can see his production going down steadily over the next two seasons. He’s very trade-able.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
i really think
we missed our best chance to move Byrd at the trade deadline last yr
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 10, 2010 9:21 PM CST up reply actions
i wouldn't say best
only because the trade deadline isn’t the best time to move an asset with long-term value. granted, byrd had plenty of immediate value playing a good CF and hitting 311/374/464 thru july 31st but i’m not sure a team would have paid much more then than they would now. even after a somewhat poor end to his season you’re still talking about a guy with offensive and defensive value on an affordable 2-year contract.
by circuitclout on Nov 11, 2010 8:38 AM CST up reply actions
byrd's performance was at peak
he’s aging and only to get worse from here. His contract is rising…His value last year was all tied up in him playing CF defense that was out of the ordinary for him
I dont think there will be another time to deal him
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 11, 2010 8:43 AM CST up reply actions
almost no alternative
certainly not on the FA market, so scarcity works in the cubs favor in this case. his contract goes up but it’s not outrageous at a peak of $6.5 million. unless his august/sept performance is the precursor to a complete collapse i don’t see how there isn’t a market for byrd if the cubs choose to make him available.
by circuitclout on Nov 11, 2010 9:02 AM CST up reply actions
If Byrd is our #3 hitter again
then we’re in trouble. He’s not a #3 hitter for a legitimate contender. He’s a nice guy and plays hard, but he has no business batting third.
good thing
we aren’t a legitimate contender.
by circuitclout on Nov 11, 2010 7:14 PM CST up reply actions
I bought the 2010 edition after Al's write-up last year
It’s a good “read” if you’re a numbers guy and really handy as you opine about free agents, etc in the off-season. Amazon.com has it for only $16.47.
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
I met James and had him autograph mine.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
You Dog!
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
by RiskyBusiness on Nov 10, 2010 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
39 home runs 102 RBI!
that is chump change. we don’t need anyone like that on our team!
The 2010 Randy Hundley Fantasy Camp ruled!!!!
Nady is amazing!!!
The 2010 Randy Hundley Fantasy Camp ruled!!!!
by VegasCubFan on Nov 10, 2010 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
Just for fun
What are the projections for TRL?
"Lou Piniella's been a great manager for a long time and I stand by him completely"
Jim Hendry
12-12, 3.65. 32 games, 32 starts. 190 IP, 66 BB, 180 K — and 32 HR allowed.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
.278/.365/.475 in 543 AB. 36 doubles, 23 HR, 84 RBI. Looks a lot like his 2008 season.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Hard to tell what the effects of the thumb surgery will be on him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He'll find more excuses.
I’m sure his neck and back will continue to cause him problems.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
are you really criticizing D Lee?
"That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June."
- Big boy Frankie
by lexmarklover on Nov 10, 2010 5:17 PM CST up reply actions
Of course not
But I haven’t seen or heard anything to suggest that Derrek Lee is to blame for his being put in the lineup in the 3-hole every day despite his awful year. Players do what their managers tell them to do. Blame the manager instead.
Yes,
if he was hurt last season, he should have sat. But his back and neck have been bad for a few years now and will not likely improve as he continues to age. IMO his injuries are not the sole reason for his declining production.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
Not going to happen.
He’s done.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
32 HRs allowed?
…with the majority of his starts at Chavez? Ouch….
by JB 23 on Nov 10, 2010 11:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I can buy most of them
Projections are what they are, and I can see most of these happening. Not saying I think they will, but they all seem decently possible. For example, if the Cubs keep Baker (which isn’t certain yet), and use him primarily against lefties, he could post a fairly solid line. Marlon Byrd’s complete collapse in the 2nd half leaves me quite uncertain on what type of offensive production he might have in 2011.
I wouldn’t completely rule out Casey Coleman as the long man if he fails to win a job. He’d probably get shifted back to Iowa to do rotation duty, but it’s probably a bit early to rule him out as the long man/spot starter in the pen if he fails to win a job.
The Cubs haven't had a "long man/spot starter" in years.
I’d like to see a role like that. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I wonder if Quade will be more amenable to the concept than Lou was.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
I want to see Matt Karchner!
The 2010 Randy Hundley Fantasy Camp ruled!!!!
by VegasCubFan on Nov 10, 2010 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
Les Walrond.
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
I'm digging the grins!
"That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June."
- Big boy Frankie
Pitching...
Carlos Zambrano: 14-11, 3.67. 33 games, 33 starts, 221 IP, 100 BB, 188 K
(Comment: too high on the walks, I think. I’m projecting Z to have a big year in 2011)
I’d love to know what would make you think Z will have a “big” year. Those projections look par for the course…except for the inflated innings total. I’d be shocked if he goes over 190 IP.
Tom Gorzelanny: 7-8, 4.06. 28 games, 26 starts, 133 IP, 56 BB, 106 K
(Comment: too low on the W-L record; like Coleman, he’ll start if he’s on the team)
It’s really hard for a 4/5 to win more than 7-8 games on a mediocre ballclub. I get James logic on this one.
WWOZ.org - New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Station
2011
Baseball is a funny game and one of the many reasons why it is so great is that it’s unpredictable. Last year, everybody was going on about the New York Yankees and how they spent all of this money on Sabathia and Texeira and won it all. Now, the same people are saying how maybe you gotta be like the San Francisco Giants with a bunch of “misfits”. If anything, 2010 was truly the year of the pitcher. Not so much like 1988, but pretty darn close. Next year, we could see offensive numbers go up again. We could see a team like Boston in the World Series again next year. I personally think that the Giants will come back down to earth next year. Not wishing anything bad on them, but most of the time a World Series champion tends to fall back the year after they won the championship.
I keep saying the Cubs will win the World Series in 2012. The world will end and so will the World Series with the Cubs as champions. ;-)
I hope no one is suggesting (and I'm aware you aren't)
that a bunch of misfits alone can win a title. The Giants, after all, had one of the great pitching staffs in baseball last year, and a solid pen.
As for the Giants future … I think they’ll be in contention on account of their starting staff.
I think...
…he is too optomistic on both Castro and Colvin, and probably a little on the low side with Ramirez. Everyone else seems about right.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
So somebody answer me this..
With free agency ahead and an offseason’s worth of trades ahead of us, why is he making his projections now? For instance if we had Adam Dunn, a big RBI guy, in the 3 hole, wouldn’t that increase the runs scored for Castro and whoever else is at the top of our lineup?
I disagree on Fukudome
as that actually would be a decent line. But what this screams out to me is just how horrible our starting pitching could potentially be. Your gut may tell you Zambrano will be big next year but based on these projections, we’re in trouble.
2011 GRINCH PREDICTIONS
1. Nady re-signed to a one year, $5 million salary plus a mutual option. He then plays 1B every day while batting 5th in the line-up behind Ramirez as his “protection.”
2. Blake DeWitt plays 2B every day. He also bats lead-off with his .327 OBP (accurate projection above).
3. We re-sign Koyie Hill to an extension because he’s a “proven veteran” instead of giving Castillo or Chirnos a shot.
4. Fukudome doesn’t get traded—Colvin does—for a single-A pitcher with a 5.72 ERA and a light-hitting outfielder “with speed and promise.” We then talk about how Colvin “didn’t have a position or place on this team.”
5. Zambrano gets traded to either the Red Sox or Yankees, with us paying 70% of his salary while getting fringe prospects in return. He then wins 18 games.
6. No free agent relievers are signed, but we pick up a few non-tenders from the scrap heap. We go into next season with virtually the same amazing bullpen as this year.
7. Marmol, Marshall, and Ramirez are traded to contenders at the trade deadline since we’re already out of it by that point. Plus they make too much money.
8. Cubs finish in fifth place again.
9. 2012 payroll is reduced to $120 million due to major losses in attendance. For the first time in history, television viewers can actually hear the crickets chirping through the broadcasts.
10. Ryne Sandberg never shows up to another Cubs Convention again thanks to his marvelous treatment by the Cubs.
You're still not over the Jake Fox trade are you?
"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella
by tripdenten on Nov 11, 2010 8:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Sadly most of this is quite believable!
But the new toilets are amazing!!!!!
by TJ11 on Nov 12, 2010 9:22 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
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