Should The Cubs Sign Adam... LaRoche?
by Al Yellon on Nov 5, 2010 9:01 AM CDT
in The Next 100 Years
Email
Print
While the rumor mill has been heavy with chatter about the Cubs possibly signing free agent first baseman Adam Dunn, that doesn't seem likely to me. We know that Tom Ricketts is giving Jim Hendry a little less payroll money for 2011 than he had in 2010; fitting a hitter like Dunn into that payroll likely wouldn't work. The Cubs are already committed to over $100 million in payroll from existing contracts -- unless they can move some bad deals like Kosuke Fukudome's or Carlos Silva's, or even get someone to take parts of those deals -- and they're likely to be on the hook for fairly large salary increases for arb-eligible players like Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall.
Dunn would hit well in Wrigley Field. We all know that. We've also discussed his defensive shortcomings at length. He's probably looking for a multi-year deal that's too long for what the Cubs need at this point in time (and do we really need another backloaded deal?).
So, what about the "other" first base Adam -- Adam LaRoche? Three days ago, the Diamondbacks declined their club option on LaRoche, making him a free agent. He made $7.5 million last year while hitting .261/.320/.468. The .788 OPS was the lowest since his second full season (2005, with the Braves), but he hit 25 HR for the third straight year and drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career. He strikes out a lot -- not quite as much as Dunn -- and usually draws a decent number of walks. That walk total was also down in 2010, accounting for a fair portion of the OPS drop.
LaRoche is sort of Dunn-lite. The two are almost exactly the same age -- LaRoche was born on November 6, 1979; Dunn on November 9, 1979. They both generally stay healthy; LaRoche has played 140+ games five of the last six years. He's not a great defensive first baseman -- he made 11 errors last year -- but he's a better first baseman than Adam Dunn is.
This MLBTR post suggests LaRoche could possibly be had on a one-year deal for about $6 million. If the Cubs are serious about getting into the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes -- and this MLBTR post suggests the Padres are willing to deal him -- then LaRoche might be a good one-year stopgap, far better than Nick Johnson, who is always, always, always injured.
Have at it.
270 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
He has been at the top of my list for 2011
since the Cubs traded DLee. I don’t see much downside in a one-year deal. Rudy might even get a little improvement from him over his 2010 numbers.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
By the way,
a good summary of the first base options for 2011……
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/4/1793650/who-are-the-best-available-first-basemen
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
your .sig is
the most profane and disgusting thing I’ve ever read.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
by Harry Pavlidis on Nov 5, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Seems like...
…the type of “stop gap” signing that would fit into the Cubs short term plans.
25 homers in Arizona is not bad (unless I am misreading their ballpark) and he may do pretty well in Wrigley. I can’t recall his hitting tendancies, but if he drives the ball well to left field (usually where the cheap home runs happen at Wrigley), he may work out pretty well.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Speaking of possible acquisitions ...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/nationals-release-tyler-walker.html
Assuming the medical reports aren’t awful, I could see the Cubs jumping in. Low-risk, high-reward for a decent righty setup guy who wouldn’t cost much.
Ah, yes.
Is this your 2011 version of the 2010 Kiko Calero?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
What's wrong with trying to find a bargain?
Walker made $650,000 in 2010. He’s an injury risk, sure. But the Cubs have a lack of right-handed depth when it comes to the bullpen. And let’s not forget that even if the Cubs find a way to sign Kerry Wood — which I’m good with, at the right price — Woody isn’t exactly Cal Ripken.
Other teams routinely scour the discard bin to fill out bullpens. I am a big advocate, as you know, of Hendry trying this more. It worked with Ryan Dempster and Glendon Rusch.
The medical reports on Walker might not bear out. But the Cubs should at least consider guys like Walker, rather than paying $3 million for “established” relievers or hoping some kid from Iowa will be the next Carlos Marmol.
Yes, it worked with Dempster and Rusch.
But for every Dempster and Rusch, there’s a Wade Miller or a Chad Fox.
Why can’t the Cubs go for people who are healthy?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Honestly? Because guys off injury are cheaper -- which is where you find bargains.
The Cubs, as long as I’ve watched them, have struggled at putting together bullpens with only a couple exceptions. The Cubs need to do a better job spending money on the pen (the Grabow deal is laughable), they need to do a better job easing young guys into roles (see last spring’s day care bullpen) and they need to look for reclamation projects.
Doing all three effectively ensures that you don’t overly rely on the other two. What’s wrong with throwing $600,000 at someone like Tyler Walker — as long as it doesn’t block other moves?
Doesn't mean you shouldn't look for healthy pitchers first.
Why dumpster-dive first?
Agreed that Grabow got too much $. Hope he’ll be even partly worth it in 2011.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I don't really think it's an issue of 'first', Al.
I think Hendry should be looking at all of these options simultaneously, and I’d assume that he is.
Of course.
But I’m saying let’s dumpster-dive LAST.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm saying let's do them simultaneously ...
so there’s something left in the dumpster by the time we get there. Now, as far as who we count on, the dumpster guys and the minor leaguers should be lower on the pecking order. And maybe that’s what you’re trying to say.
Well, that's fine!
But having somebody like Tyler Walker as your 12th pitcher is a low-risk, high reward proposition.
Urgh. That's the point, Al -- and you know it.
First of all, the Cubs will almost certainly go with a 12-man staff. And second, why not give somebody like Tyler Walker $600,000 to be the 11th man?
I dunno.
Guess I’ve had enough of dumpster diving.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
What dumpster diving?
Wade Miller and Chad Fox? That was like four years ago.
How about Howry this season, or BJ Ryan last season (who wasn’t even able to make it back to the bigs after Toronto cut his loose)?
by TakeoutArtist on Nov 8, 2010 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
Ryan was a worthwhile risk...
… because he never played in the majors. After some outings at Iowa, the Cubs cut him. That’s how you can do it with guys like that.
Howry was an act of desperation, clearly a failure.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
LOL
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
"They played like son of a guns......lord have mercy." Mike Quade
The Damn Padres
have assembled great bullpens by dumpster-diving. They did their homework and have had some gems over the last 7-8 years, even when the team sucked. They’d deal those guys off before their expiration date.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Nov 5, 2010 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Right
And Wade Miller and Chad Fox didn’t exactly set wreck our seasons by any means.
Pat Riley is the devil.
"La Roach" good but Gonzo better
The Roach nickname might be offensive sorry, but I think a trade for a top 5 1st baseman (Adrian) is what we need and a low cost starter. Those two key additions would bring us to the top. But I would take La Roach
The Padres would have to want to trade A-Gon ...
and the Cubs would have to clear out the farm system. I kinda doubt A-Gon will ever be a Cub, but he certainly won’t be one before 2012.
unless they are out of it
at the deadline…great time to be sellers, probably get far more out of him to a team who needs a 1b to get to the playoffs, the scary thing is it may be harder to get him to commit to an extension mid-season
Oh, at the deadline is another matter.
But I don’t see A-Gon being traded this offseason, which means the Cubs will have to find someone else to play first to (at least) start 2011.
Offseason trade of AGonz: Boston vs. the Cubs
I too doubt he will be traded this offseason. But, I must say I hope the Cubs don’t go that route, but it would make sense if Boston did.
Add Gonzalez to the Red Sox and they certainly move up towards the list of most likely WS winners. Add him to the Cubs and maybe that moves the team into the 80+ win category.
There will be a steep price in prospects and $ to get Gonzalez. For a WS title in 2011, it could be worth it (see BoSox). To move into the 85 win team category (Cubs) not worth it.
Eamus Ursuli!
I could see a trade for A-Gonz if he agrees to an extension as part of the trade.
Something like Hak-Ju Lee, Chris Archer, and another prospect.
I'd much rather go with a one year stop gap
and take my chances with Gonzolez in free agency. Worst thing that could happen would be for us to empty the farm system in a trade for 2011, only to be left behind if Gonzalez chooses another team in free agency in 2012.
I agree
… and there should be plenty of one-year stop-gap type guys available, including a right-hand hitting 1b who played in the NL playoffs who is a good fielder and a good clubhouse guy who as recently as 2009 hit 35 hrs with 111 rbis.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
by Jose's Eyelid on Nov 6, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Not really offensive
But great if we were all back in the 3rd grade. Seriously, its a really corny putdown.
"Ask Dad. He'll know. And on the off chance he doesn't, he'll make something up"
No...
He is a notoriously slow starter and this team can’t really afford a slow start from one of their power positions
"All I want is food and creative love" - Rusted Root
Although his career numbers in April aren't very good...
… in April 2010 he hit .296/.390/.563 with 4 HR and 17 RBI in 71 at-bats.
That’d work for me.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
One issue regarding LaRoche ...
I wonder if the Cubs would be better served paying him $6 million or paying Nick Johnson $2 million, considering the budget this offseason.
Do you really want to risk Jeff Baker at 1st for half the season?
Johnson couldn’t even stay healthy last season at DH. Johnson is near the bottom of my list of first base options.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
I'm not a big fan of the Johnson signing.
I understand your concerns. I’m just thinking aloud.
Nick Johnson is more dumpster-diving.
The likelihood that your $2m on Johnson would wind up on the DL is very high.
At least LaRoche stays healthy. If Johnson winds up on the DL, then who plays 1B? Jeff Baker?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Do you think this has anything to do with climate?
playing April ball in Arizona and the NL west as opposed to pittsburgh? He’d obviously be back in a cool weather April in chicago, and that could mean another slow start.
Second City Hockey
I'm Abe Froman, and I approve this message.
Patience?
It seems like there are a LOT of first-base (or first-base possible) FAs this winter. Perhaps playing the waiting game would make sense. If we assume that we don’t have the cash or the inclination to sign a guy who wants multi-millions for multi-years, then why not wait to see who is desperate for work come late February and sign ’em to a cheap deal.
As another commenter noted yesterday, this strategy worked well for outfield buyers two years ago. If we can get LaRoche (or Glaus, or DLee, or Berkman, or one of the other out-of-work guys—or even Johnson—but only for really cheap), why overpay early for a guy no one is that thrilled to have?
"It is history that teaches us to hope" -- R. E. Lee
But Lee wasn't a Cubs fan.
by TPM08 on Nov 5, 2010 10:02 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Agree and recorded
LaRoache rejected more money (than what he signed for in Arizona) from the Giants last year, which is why SF ended up with Huff in January costing them only 3 million (essentially Nady money). If a bunch of these older first basemen start signing, then maybe the Cubs could step up their efforts. I’m not sure if Erik Hinske was given enough ABs if he couldn’t match what a lot of these “bigger” names end up producing.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Nov 5, 2010 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions
KC Trade?
LaRoche isn’t a terrible idea, but the problem with a stopgap is that it doesn’t look like there is a reliable option coming down the pike. And I’m skeptical you could get LaRoche on a one year deal given the number of teams that need a 1B and the relative scarcity of the position.
I’d be in favor of returning to an older idea that has bounced around these parts a lot – trade for either Kai Ka’aihue or Billy Butler, with my preference actually being Butler. His offense speaks for itself, and he’s still young enough to be rounding into his prime. I know the big question mark is supposed to be his defense, but the statistics (my rudimentary understanding of them) don’t seem to bear that out as he had a .995 fielding percentage at 1B last year (or about what D-Lee posted from 07-09). In any case, he’s arb eligibile for the first time this year, and the combination of cost, questions about his D, and the existence of an already-on-the-roster replacement in Ka’aihue might make the cost-conscious Royals listen to offers.
LaRoche got a one year deal last year
and will likely sign a one year deal again. Yes there are numerous teams looking for 1st basemen but there are many options too.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
I think this could work, actually
The Royals are going to have to figure out what to do with Ka’aihue, Butler, and Hosmer. If the Royals think Hosmer will be MLB-ready in 2011, why not try for Butler or Kila?
by Outshined_One on Nov 5, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Colvin
I am still in the camp in favor of giving Colvin a try.
First, this will provide more options in the future. If he does pan out as a serviceable 1B and his offensive #s continue to improve, then come future offseasons the Cubs could look at either 1B or OF possibilities for help.
Second, we should really be comparing the likely #s of any 1B acquisition to those of Fukudome. No, Kosuke is not an All Star, but neither are these guys (LaRoche/Johnson), so why ditch Fukudome to bring in one of these guys? If we could find a trade partner who would take his salary that would be great, but it ain’t happening.
Frankly, I would rather put Colvin at 1B, keep Kosuke in RF and get a platoon partner for him. No, this isn’t going to make the Cubs much better, but nor will LaRoche or Johnson.
Eamus Ursuli!
I'm leaning that way
Colvin over LaRoche would give the Cubs a little more power but a little less on-base and defense. Not at all optimal, but the cost differential is going to be meaningful.
And I’m suspicious of LaRoche’s ateadily increasing K rate and a dip in his walk rate last year. Maybe Colvin will get on base as much as LaRoche in 2011.
by Harry Pavlidis on Nov 5, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions
If the Cubs don't want to spend the money on LaRoche...
… then trying Colvin is a decent option.
However, then they need a platoon partner for Fukudome.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
a right-handed hitting, part-time corner outfielder?
no problemo, those guys are all over the place. The minor league free agent market is full of 4A guys who could fill that slot.
by Harry Pavlidis on Nov 5, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Reed Johnson
Not for sentimentality but because I know his name and need to come up with someone.
Eamus Ursuli!
Johnson had a bad year last year.
… but still raked (.301) vs. LHP.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Hopefully the RH platoon partner can be Guyer
Speaking of Colvin, if we were to sign a walking injury like Johnson, maybe then Colvin can slide over to 1B (rather than Baker). I wonder if that might be what Hendry has in mind.
You mean the Brandon Guyer who has never played above Double-A?
No. Not yet, anyway.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Colvin never played above AA until last year
and he never put up the kind of numbers Guyer has over the last two seasons. It is a long shot, but certainly not unprecedented.
This was the kind of thinking ...
that got the Cubs in trouble with the daycare bullpen. Carlos Marmol came out of nowhere in 2007, so the young guys in 2010 will too!
With Guyer, at least we’re only talking about one guy and not four relievers. But still …
He'll have to earn it in Spring Training
just like Colvin did last year. And he’d only presumably be the righthanded half of a platoon, so his exposure would be pretty limited, at least at first. By mid year, Brett Jackson may be pushing for a MLB spot anyway, so it’s not like we aren’t flush with OF replacement options.
BTW, I just realized this chain is really about Colvin at 1B, which I am not really in favor of (in case I gave that impression). I could see him being a backup option though. Given that we will likely have Soriano, Byrd, Colvin AND Fukudome (barring a trade) going into ST, Guyer would be the 5th OF option anyway. So it’s not as though we’d be relying on him to carry RF alone.
Yes but is Guyer going to have the ST that Colvin had?
And Colvin almost didn’t make the team
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
Agreed
Kosuke is overpaid, but he’s not useless. Hell, if we got rid of all the overpaid guys we’d have a 30-man, not a 40-man, roster.
His OPS was .811 last year. Platoon him more strictly and you could hope to increase that a little. That’s eminently serviceable, and if we’d have to pay a lot of his contract anyway, why not keep him.
If Colvin isn’t going to be the guy, for whatever reason, then we should wait and get what’s left for almost nothing.
"It is history that teaches us to hope" -- R. E. Lee
But Lee wasn't a Cubs fan.
"if we’d have to pay a lot of his contract anyway, why not keep him?"
Two easy answers. We have a better player in Colvin who isn’t viewed as someone who needs a platoon player. So Colvin in right means the Cubs don’t have to pay somebody like Xavier Nady, who made $3.3 million last season AND took a roster spot.
Also, if Kosuke can easily be replaced by Colvin (I believe he can) then it makes sense for the Cubs do trade Kosuke even if they have to pay most of his salary. $3 million in savings could help the Cubs land somebody like Kerry Wood.
I’d rather have Colvin and Wood than Colvin, Kosuke, a Nady clone and Esmalin Caridad (or some other cheap daycare option from the minors).
I see your point, but
KF: .263/.371/.439
TC: .254/.316/.500
Don’t get me wrong: I like the power, and Colvin promises to be a much better ballplayer going forward. If it’s a zero-sum game then Colvin’s the guy. And if the Cubs are unwilling to have Colvin play first, then it is a zero-sum game, and sayonara.
But Fukudome’s on-base ability is excellent, and it’s something our lineup desperately needs. I’m not opposed to trading him, but I don’t think I’d make the same calculation you did. I’d love to have Colvin and Wood, but I think we’re better offensively with Colvin, Kosuke, and a right-handed bat (who maybe is better than Nady was for us last year).
"It is history that teaches us to hope" -- R. E. Lee
But Lee wasn't a Cubs fan.
I think it's unlikely that Colvin ever becomes more than a 1B backup.
One thing about Kosuke that people seem to forget is that the guy will be 34 next year. I think it’s highly likely that he will regress — whereas I think Colvin will continue to get better.
Kosuke’s defense is a major plus. But aside from that, I don’t think we’ll miss him, even a little.
and many people
are not taking into account the sophmore slump…what happens if Colvin suffers from this disease? It is possible that he regresses next year and then comes back with a vengenge similar to Soto
I'd rather take this risk ...
pay Colvin less than $1 million, save $4 million by trading Kosuke and improve the team elsewhere. Anyway, Colvin’s conditioning isn’t being questioned, whereas Soto just kinda got fat before 2009.
ya
wasnt saying Colvin will get fat any time soon…just saying that is a strike against him moving to 1b…putting him in RF with Kosuke allows the risk to be absorbed slightly by K
It also means Colvin won't get enough playing time.
It means the Cubs will waste roster spots and not get any savings in a Kosuke trade.
very true
but Cubs wont be able to save much if they try to replace Fukudome’s abilities…and that would still leave us vulnerable to a sophmore slump
Colvin is second-year player who has a future in the organization.
Kosuke will be gone after next season if not before. In a year when the team needs a lot of things to go right to compete, I’d roll the dice on the kid and dump Kosuke without a second thought — unless I thought Kosuke could lead off successfully.
Sophomore slump
Fear of a sophomore slump by Colvin or Castro is the least of the Cubs worries for 2011
Eamus Ursuli!
But we can have both.
My point is that the Colvin:Fukudome comparison isn’t the only one to consider. We should all think about Fukudome:LaRoche/Johnson etc. when thinking about adding a 1B.
Eamus Ursuli!
maybe I am missing something huge here
I just checked out baseball-reference.com for Kosuke, and his splits arent that terrible:
2010 PA BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. RHP: 379 .263 .377 .427 .804
vs. LHP: 50 .262 .327 .524 .850
Career PA BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. RHP: 1354 .262 .374 .420 .793
vs. LHP: 268 .246 .340 .362 .701
while his career numbers indicate a good candidate for a platoon his offensive numbers have increased as he has played and adjusted to American baseball. While it would be wise to have our 4th outfielder be a right-hander that is good against lefties, it might also be a good chance to give Fukudome the full-time gig and see what he can do with it if we decide to go with Colvin at 1b.
You're forgetting one of Kosuke's key downsides.
He wears down if played every day. That’s a big part of what happened in 2008. It’s not just that he’s better against righties, it’s that he needs regular rest, so it makes sense to sit him against lefties.
My problem with that option
is that Colvin’s real future is in the OF. Even last season he showed that he has things to learn in the field. He is young so why divert his development for a year at 1st base.
I’m fine going in with 4 outfielders. Fukudome could even be a mid-season trade option since by that time his dollars owed will be less.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
If Fukudome can be traded then fine
I’m just not on the Colvin to 1st bandwagon.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
He's not terrible.
He’s an incredibly flawed player who is defended because his pluses (defense and OBP) are en vogue right now while his minuses (streakiness, need for rest/platoon status, inability to hit leadoff) aren’t.
Kosuke could have proven himself as the Cubs leadoff hitter, and if he had, I’d say give him RF for another year. But he didn’t.
The current coaching staff did not think Colvin was capable enough
to handle first base at the end of the season why would they change their mind now, unless forced by roster? This ship sailed. LaRoche for one year is sensible. Give me sensible options.
Sandberg for manager!
Wrong.
It’s been reported that Colvin said he wasn’t ready to play first late in the year. And even if the coaching staff felt he wasn’t ready — which reportedly was NOT the case — what’s to say he couldn’t get a good enough feel for the position before Opening Day?
That said, the trouble with counting on Colvin is that you might not KNOW if he’s up to playing the position until after ST. If that happens, the Cubs might not sign a FA first baseman, and be out of luck at first on Opening Day.
Not to mention the fact that Colvin missed the last two weeks of the season.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Absolutely
There is a huge difference between handing a guy a 1B glove after 120 games and saying go get ’em kid and sending him into the offseason and telling him to get some reps at 1B.
Eamus Ursuli!
I bet Colvin becomes the team's backup first baseman.
A lot of corner outfielders go this route — Nady, Hollingsworth, etc.
Last summer after the trade of DLee
Pinella was asked on WGN radio pre-game about Colvin and first base. He said that the coaches had been working him out there but he didn’t think you would see him there in a game. You also said Colvin admitted he wasn’t ready to play first late in the year.
I’m reading the whole thing as he is not good enough. Would I like to have him there? Sure, starter or backup; it solves a lot of problems in house. If the coaching staff doesn’t trust him or if he doesn’t trust himself, so be it.
Like I said, sensible options.
Sandberg for manager!
I'm reading the whole thing as that he wasn't ready two months ago.
That doesn’t mean he won’t be in the future. And Lou’s no longer the manager.
It seems to me that
they were working with him in anticipation of more work in ST and working him into some ST games at first as well. That’s part of what it’s for after all.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
Nucks Misconduct chief curmudgeon and chief hunk.
by Section 312 on Nov 5, 2010 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions
1B
Lance Berkman? I think he might take a one year deal……………..better defensively than LaRoche or Dunn………might catch lightning in a bottle?
Ugh.
Berkman was awful this year. He’s almost 35. No thanks.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Not sure how Berkman was “awful” in comparison to LaRoche:
Berkman 2010 – 248/368/413 – 781 OPS
LaRoche 2010 – 261/320/468 – 788 OPS
Berkman is old/an injury risk and far from the perfect 1Bman, but i’d have him over Laroche next year.
by MadHatterBlues on Nov 5, 2010 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
LaRoche is three years younger than Berkman.
Berkman has a much larger chance of decline. LaRoche can still come back.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think you are putting too much emphasis on LaRoche being younger, and I think Berkman has a better chance of improving for next year.
Laroche 2010 – BABIP of .330 (a career high) and had his worst walk rate since 2005 (7.8%) as well as striking out in over 30% of his atbats (also a career high).
so he doesn’t seem to have had any bad luck this year, and his rate stats aren’t going in the right direction.
Berkman 2010 – BABIP of .282 – a career low for a full season and a full .035 below his career average. Had consistent Walk rate/K rate with his career averages.
For me Berkman has a slight downturn in power from his age, but also had a bit of bad luck on his balls in play this year. Injuries also played their part, and will still be a concern for next year.
Again – Not trying to say Berkman is perfect, but I like his chances for a decent 2011.
by MadHatterBlues on Nov 5, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
I think
Berkman has more upside than Laroche………….and………defensively he’s pretty good. 35 is not old at 1B………..1 year only though.
Adam Dunn isn’t gonna happen. I can’t see them doing another long term big $$ deal for a year or 2 yet.
Fair enough
But how much is that lower risk of decline worth? That is, would you rather pay LaRoche $7-8 million or Berkman $5-6 million. LaRoche will also probably ask for a multiyear deal while Berkman won’t (or he will, but won’t get it because nobody else will offer it).
Pat Riley is the devil.
Berkman or LaRoche
on a one year deal, I won’t really complain about one versus the other.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
I'd prefer Dunn on the fact
that we haven’t had a legit 40+ home run threat since 2005. He has the kinda bat that will frustrate you at times with the strikeouts; but his bat also will give you those random home runs that will motivate the team. not to mention he walks a lot.
If not Dunn, I’d take LaRoche; but I think Dunn’s the best option out there.
Side note, it seems as if Ricketts isn’t going to invest any of his personal income into the payroll of the team, at least for now..
Viva la Cubs Révolution!!!
TJ, if you could get out of performance mode for a second ...
answer me honestly: What would it take to convince you that Ricketts isn’t being cheap? Who needs to be signed? Dunn, Wood, Cliff Lee? Who?
I'm not TJ11, but
Ticketts could have spent more money on the 2010 draft, he could make statements like “payroll will stay the same” rather than payroll will decline somewhat", he could have been in the bidding for Aroldis Chapman, he could fire Jim Hendry and eat the last 2 years of his contract, etc…
So far, every time Ticketts has had the chance to spend money to improve the on field product, he either hasn’t or he spent in on the Wrigley Field bathrooms
Yuk, either way……
Point taken on the draft.
But last offseason, the Cubs gave $16 million to Byrd, $3.3 million (with incentives) to Nady and $8 million (IIRC) to John Grabow. That’s $28 million.
We don’t know how much payroll will go down for 2011. But I wouldn’t consider Ricketts a cheapskate for going from $145 million to $135 million. Which is why I think the name-calling is premature.
by elgato on Nov 5, 2010 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
here is my thinking
Tom may be looking at the economic situation of the country right now and he may be deciding that, hey, I need to work on getting payroll under control, manage my expenses and pay down this freekin debt load so that way, when the economy stagnates for the next 10 years I am not trying to pay more than what I can afford and have to declare bankruptcy…so suck it up for a couple of years and lets see what happens
You mean a couple MORE years, right?
"I don't care who the manager is OR who they sign in the off-season...I want a frickin' World Series winner" - Easy Ed
Unfortunately for Ricketts
Cubs fans expect a contending team, and because the economy is bad, ticket sales are gonna plunge, IMO. Which means more payroll cuts, which means more ticket plunge. It’s not an easy situation, but fielding a third-place-or-worse Cubs team for the next few years is not gonna be good for Cubs revenue.
Some of us were silly enough to think that moves like unloading DLee would lead to a little (significant) spending, knowing that without it, the team would not contend.
IMO, tight-fistedness now — however sensible in a lot of ways — risk some real damage to the fan base and revenue. We’ll see how this plays out next year, if the Cubs basically stand pat.
I have nightmares of Carlos Beltran
The only way AGon is coming to the Cubs is if Hendry trades for him, he will not sign here as an FA in 2012 with a Cubs team that is more than likely not going to be very good in 2011-12.
I want AGon and I want him in 2011, Every Cubs prospect (except for Castro) should be available.
Will Hendry do it? probably not, because he sold Ticketts on the potential of the farm system and trading the farm would go against what he told the bossman
Gonzalez may not sign with the Cubs anyway
But I just don’t see 2011 as being the year to go “all in” for a big star player in a trade. Even if we manage to resign Gonzalez in 2012, the supporting cast will be shaky to say the least without additional FA signings or help from the farm. Sure, we may still need to make additional acquisitions to compete in 2012 and beyond even if we keep our prospects, but we’ll have more options as well.
I just don’t see a reluctance to sign Dunn or trade for Gonzalez or another big name as a sign that Ricketts is too cheap to spend on his team. I think he’s simply trying to reorient the team after several years of big spending have put us in a tight spot. How we spend after 2011, with major money gone from the payroll, will indicate whether he is really cheap or not.
This is a good comment.
It’s also worth noting that the Cubs have three big contracts coming off the books after next season. Ricketts might figure that spending $20 million on FAs this offseason doesn’t make a ton of sense because it would require a bunch more to be truly competitive in 2011.
OTOH, how do you fill Wrigley if your sexiest offseason move is Adam LaRoche?
Do you really believe
that its wiser to try and fix all the problems on this roster after 2011? If we wait to fix everything after next season, there will just be too many holes to fill (1B, 3B, 2B, RF, BP, TOR starter). That’s asking a lot of any GM.
A better approach is to fix some problems this offseason (1B, BP) and more next offseason (3B, 2B, RF).
After the 2006 spending spree, I have zero faith in Hendry’s ability to make multiple important moves in one offseason
That's not really what I'm saying.
I’m saying that the Cubs shouldn’t overpay for Dunn (or anybody) because they need to sign somebody now.
Good teams can be strong on multiple fronts
I just don’t see a reluctance to sign Dunn or trade for Gonzalez or another big name as a sign that Ricketts is too cheap to spend on his team. I think he’s simply trying to reorient the team after several years of big spending have put us in a tight spot.
There are multiple other examples of Ticketts being cheap (see my post above), the draft and the lack of presence on the international FA market are discouraging to say the least.
Ticketts can reorient the focus of the team to youth AND sign good FAs. These are not mutually exclusive focuses. The key is who is making the decisions regarding what FAs to sign.
I’m okay with the direction of the farm system, I think a few more years with Wilken at the helm of drafts should strengthen the system even more.
On the other hand, I have absolutely zero faith in Hendry’s ability to negotiate FA contracts. Time and time again, he overpays for mediocre players or signs players that he’s always liked to ridiculous contracts (e.g., Grabow, Spellcheck).
New eyes in the FO, please!
I agree
but I don’t think trading away the guys who have put the system back on the map (Jackson, Cashner, Archer, McNutt, Lee, etc.) for Gonzalez would be the best way to stay strong on multiple fronts. I don’t feel that signing Dunn is really cost prohibitive, as long as Hendry can get some savings from dealing Fukudome, but if you sign Dunn, you block 1B next season, so you are kind of going with the lower upside deal there. There are three options I see that people are kicking around in this debate:
1. Sign Dunn to a 3 or 4 year deal, hope he holds up and that you can build around him before he’s too old or gone.
2. Trade the farm for Gonzalez, hope he resigns or else you are screwed. For the right price, this might be an acceptable risk, but I could see why it might not be given the bidders if he gets put up for trade.
3. Wait 2011 out (with a LaRoche type 1B), make a big push for Gonzalez in 2012, and hope you can supplement him with guys from the system or other FA signings. It will be expensive, but we’ll have much more payroll flexibility with Fukudome, Silva, and Ramirez coming off the books.
I would suggest that option 3 keeps us strongest on multiple fronts. As for Ricketts being cheap in the draft and IFA, I don’t know what exactly to make of that, other than that he seems to be indicating a desire to spend more money there this year.
Gonzales
I get the feeling that Gonzalez probably will not be a free agent in 2012.
The Padres are either going to extend him (unlikely) or trade him. Anyone who trades for Gonzalez will do so with a window to sign. No one is going to give up their farm for without confirmation that they are getting a long term solution at 1B.
This is why I think the Cubs need to step up and put together a strong package, complete the trade and sign him long term. I think that is the only way he ends up a Cub.
If the Padres wait until the trade deadline to deal Gonzales, then someone like Laroche would make sense. He would be the “stop gap” until then or for the rest of the season if we don’t land AGon. If the latter happens, you live with LaRoche and then reassess whether you want to sign Prince or find an alternative solution.
Window to sign
That is a point that hasn’t been brought up. In fact, I haven’t really heard any discussion of that happening. I’m not sure what the rules are on giving those, but I’d imagine it would be up to Gonzalez, and its almost certain he would want to test the full market in FA. If we could trade for him and sign an extension, that option is obviously much better.
I think the "window to sign" goes without saying
at least if AGon is traded this offseason. If he’s traded at the deadline in July, then I doubt a team would empty the farm for 2-3months of AGon with no window.
I’d still like the Cubs to go hard after him this offseason. AGon is exactly the type of player this team needs. I don’t want the Cubs getting into a bidding war for AGon on the FA market.
I’m still a big Adam Dunn fan though, that guy would hit 50HRs at Wrigley every year
I agree...
make up a strong trade package for A-Gon (including extension) and let the Padres decide if it’s good for them. If not, then bring in Dunn. You’re not gonna get Pujols in 2012. You’re NOT gonna outbid Boston for A-Gon in FA of 2012 and why would you even want Fielder?
"I don't care who the manager is OR who they sign in the off-season...I want a frickin' World Series winner" - Easy Ed
Wouldn't that risk getting A-Gon for one season?
I’m envisioning a scenario where the Cubs clear out the system, and then A-Gon heads to Boston in 2012.
That's why you need a signed extension for 3-5 years...
…if he doesn’t want to sign extension then we don’t want him in ANY trade.
"I don't care who the manager is OR who they sign in the off-season...I want a frickin' World Series winner" - Easy Ed
After looking around the web
it looks like the negotiation window is a bargaining tactic by the trading team. In other words, the sending team offers a window to negotiate an extension upon which the completion of the deal becomes contingent . This obviously would increase Gonzalez’s value if the Padres offered it.
However, especially during deadline time, these windows don’t always get offered (such as in the Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia trades). The risk the sending team takes is that a trade for a really nice package will fall through if the negotiations break down.
But at the end of the day, it would ultimately be up to Gonzalez (and his agent) as to whether they would even choose to negotiate an extension. I can’t imagine they would rather limit their leverage by negotiating with only one team, as opposed to going on the open market and fielding offers from other teams. I’m not so sure we will get to negotiate a long term deal before trading for Gonzalez.
Here is an interesting article about some failed attempts by the Braves to trade for a player with an expiring contract and then sign an extension after the season. Some of them are pretty ugly.
Won't happen this offseason...
…and I don’t see Ricketts allowing the farm to be emptied to get a guy, and than have to pay him top dollar on top of it.
If he was a FA, all you have to do is pay him and not give up your prospects. Even if he was a FA right now, this wouldn’t be the right time for the Cubs to make this type of move.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Even if he was a FA right now, this wouldn’t be the right time for the Cubs to make this type of move.
I didn’t know there needed to be a right time to get one of the best 1B in baseball. These are the exact kind of moves that the Cubs should be making if they have any hope of contending for a WS title in the next 10 years.
For the next 10 years?
I disagree.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Until he is done with the bank loan to buy the Cubs
it is hard to say what he is or isnt. The interest alone on the note has to be insane
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
He won't be done...
…with that note for a while.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Lee is not going to happen...
The money for him could be used on two other free agents at least.
I see the words Dumpster Diving in this post quite often. That is what i have felt is going to happen for some time. Names like Nick Johnson and Tyler Walker and an aging Lance Berkman are exactly that.
Yes there is a lot of bad money on the books for this season, but this is Chicago and with the amount of money being given to this organization by the fans we deserve to be competitive.
Dunn and Wood should both be on this team next year. Do I think this will happen? No I do not. When LaRouche is hitting .230 in May and we are talking about playing Colvin there again it will be real fun won’t it?
When Ricketts/Wrigley does something big and gets us a few real players I will stop considering him cheap.
Keeping Jim Hendry is only here still in my opinion because he does not wish to pay another GM. Which in sports is also cheap.
I hope I am wrong and we win it all, but I do not think I am.
Now back to the fun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Soriano and ARam are never lazy!!!!!!!
Thank you for the candor.
Keep in mind that Walker, Berkman and LaRoche are all speculation from BCBers. I admit to being a little worried that Nick Johnson is in the plans, but I don’t think Ricketts should be labeled a cheapskate just yet.
What if the Cubs honestly think Dunn is a long-term mistake? Should they commit $40 million to him, instead of waiting for A-Gon?
No one’s talking about halving the payroll, or even reducing sharply. I’m going to wait to see how this offseason plays out before I start calling Ricketts a cheapskate.
The problem is
that without spending money, the Cubs are just not going to be very good for the next few years. The farm is in better shape, but it is filled with Craig Counsell types — solid major league players, but not difference makers. This team needs difference makers and several of them.
For the Cubs to have any chance next year, they need a legitimate difference maker at 1B and a TOR starter in the CLee ilk. I’m always against spending on the bullpen because most relief pitchers are so volatile (Woody is the perfect example, he sucked and was injured in Cleveland, and he was lights out in NY, over the course of the entire season, he was mediocre at best).
I’m willing to be patient for success as long as it means that Jim Hendry, Mike Quade, Larry Rothschild, Lester Strode, Bob Dernier, Ivan DeJesus, and Pat Listach are all gone.
This team needs a fresh set of eyes in the FO and on the staff, these same characters haven’t gotten the job done and I don’t see them getting the job done in the near future……
I understand your point
but teams cannot spend themselves to competitiveness. That is part of the problem for how the Cubs got to the current predicament. Free agency is needed to fill the last few spots not build a team.
Ricketts and Hendry are in a tough position. I understand not spending a lot on salary in 2011. My biggest disappointment so far with the current regime was the draft. Even if they really thought Simpson was a first round pick, I was disappointed in not going overslot as much in the lower rounds. The Cubs need to play the draft like Boston.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Mostly
because he’s part of the old regime, I want a fresh start with a fresh FO and staff for this team.
The Cubs need to be careful ...
not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I’m fine with Rothschild.
yes
lets fire a pitching coach that has done a damn fine job just because…have you not seen the Cubs starting rotations while he has been here…
I'm ready for change
What else can I say. If a new GM is hired, he’ll hire a new manager, who will want to hire his own staff. Rothschild is okay, he’s not some world beater. The starting rotation was good, but the relief pitching was terrible.
Does Rothschild get a pass for the craptastic relief pitching, since you clearly give him credit for the starting pitching?
absolutely
the fact that young, unproven relievers didnt produce does fall on him, along with the fact that Marmol has eveloved into one of the better closers in the game, marshall is one of the better setup guys in the game, wood successfully transistioned to the pen, and the fact that the starting rotation was one of the best in the game even though we dont have an ace
The Cubs were 21st in the majors in team ERA in 2010
5th in 2008-09, 4th in 2007, 24th in 2006, 15th in 2005, 3rd in 2004….
Looks like Rothschilds staffs have been consistently inconsistent.
Either way, pitching and hitting coaches are overrated, IMO. The pitchers are what make the difference and the Cubs didn’t have a lot of good pitchers in 2010 and its going to be more of the same in 2011.
I bet you could put just about anybody in as pitching coach and the Cubs staff numbers would be about the same
I cannot dispute
the facts…the bullpen blew chucks last year, the starting rotation was very good
I highly doubt you could put me in as pitching coach and get similar results, I also highly doubt that 32 teams have been thoroughly hoodwinked to believe that pitchign and hitting coaches are necessary. Remember these guys review deliveries, mechanics, grip, swing, foot placement, etc and coach the guys on how to correct problems…its not like all they do is go out there and tell a guy to “F$*&ing throw stirkes”.
We are splitting hairs here
I don’t hate Rothschild, he’s a good pitching coach.
Would I be disappointed if the Cubs hired a new GM and a new manager who wanted to hire someone else instead of Rothschild? Hell no, because it would mean that Jim Hendry’s tenure as Cubs GM would be over, and I want nothing more than to be able to say those words after the 2012 season.
IMO...
…Rothschild got better being under Lou, because Piniella made it clear he hated the base on balls. Before Piniella got here, Rothschild staffs were either at the top in walks for the NL, or number 2 or 3.
I am indifferent with him. I don’t think he is top shelf, but he isn’t bottom either.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Before Piniella got here, Rothschild staffs were either at the top in walks for the NL, or number 2 or 3.
They led the league this year, too. Rothschild apparently likes to tell his pitchers to nibble. I hate that. Get a hitter down 0-2, STOP NIBBLING AND GET HIM OUT!
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ok...
…but weren’t they a lot better in 07, 08 and 09?
I know from 02 till 06, they were always right towards the top in walks.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Rankings in walks for Cubs pitchers
2009: 6th-most
2008: 10th-most
2007: 4th-most
So there was a modest improvement. And you’re right about the 02-06 period.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I am hoping to be proven wrong by Ricketts.....
Do you trust Hendry to pull off any big moves concerning A-Gone?
I see a possible 6th place finish next year. Yes below the Pirates…..
I think ...
that this year could be rough, but that there is some serious upside, considering that the Cubs play in the NL Central. I also think that after 2011, with Ramirez, Fukudome and Silva gone — that’s like $36 million right there — the Cubs will spend. Because barring a miracle in 2011, they’ll have to.
In the short term, a lot hinges on how much Ricketts wants to reduce payroll.
Even if they spend 2011 could be rough
Assume Ricketts would allow one big name acquisition. I don’t see either Lee or Dunn alone making this a championship team. Thinking that Ricketts should try and get both is ridiculous. He isn’t adding $25 million in guaranteed money.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
And $25 million might not even be enough for those two.
I could see Dunn and Wood, and I could see that team getting to 85 wins and making a postseason run. But I don’t think it’s likely.
I do think Dunn could be had for two years with an option. Remember, the guy only got two years after 2008 — when he was two years younger and still able to play the outfield.
You could be right
I was ballparking Dunn at $10M and Lee at $15M for next year with increases in future years. That could be too low.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
I'd say Dunn at $13 million and Lee at $18 million.
And with that, I’m officially jumping on the Carl Crawford bandwagon. :)
And as I have said here before...
… there may be other factors involved for Lee besides money, especially after the way his wife was treated at Yankee Stadium.
Prediction: he stays in Texas.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I will buy you a Big Gulp and ship
it from Delaware Al if he re-signs with Texas.
The whole treatment of Lee’s wife was overblown. She even said 24 hours after the so called incident it was not that big of a deal. Texas has a lot to offer, Property taxes are lower and no state sales tax I believe.
They, the Yankee’s, will pull out a CC full court press, and will sign the guy.
What about that stuff about Lee's
parents not being willing to fly and being reasonably close to Texas? Is that a factor do you think?
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
Nucks Misconduct chief curmudgeon and chief hunk.
by Section 312 on Nov 5, 2010 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I did not know about his parents.
But Lee did pitch in Cleveland, Philly and Seattle the last few years of his career.
Hey I don’t want him to go to New York, but unfortunately I think that will be home for the next 5 years.
I'll take that Big Gulp.
I do not think he’ll be a Yankee.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I agree
I was thinking about this the other day…that may very well have been a ploy to get more money out of the yanks….now Cliff can goto them and say “Look, my wife doesnt like it here, but if you throw enough money I might be able to convince her”
It's nice...
…the money will be freed up, but you still need to be strong at the top of your baseball organization to take advantage of that flexibility.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
What FA option provides us the most flexibility in next year's first year draft?
I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that a larger 40-man roster payroll will detract from the bonus money the Cubs pay to draft picks.
It’s like the budget for a movie:
Above the line – salary for starring roles
Below the line – salary for non-starring roles, crew, technical cost, locations, catering, etc.
Therefore I would go cheaper at 1B to push more money to the draft. Starting with not Adam Dunn.
I hope the Cubs move more money to the below the line side of the budget. That is the only way I can see the Cubs getting younger, per Tom Ricketts goal.
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
Might not be a bad idea.
Maybe the Cubs need to take the approach and not signing superstars and big names (which always seem to fail in Chicago) and just go with a bunch of solid role players. They already took the first step and hired Quade as full-time manager.
Hey, just a thought.
Counting the days until 4/1/11...
If by "role players" you mean guys with great splits advantage (both platoon and swing plane),
then yeah, that’s the way to go. It’s the process the Rays have used for the last few years: Fill your roster with solid prospect or cheap, young guys, and then caulk the gaps with Gabe Kaplars and Randy Choates — i.e. specialists.
A DRaysBay writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Yea, basically.
I just feel like these overpaid guys feel so much pressure to perform that they just end up doing nothing. It’s worth the approach of a team like the Rays.
Counting the days until 4/1/11...
why not
go get Carl Crawford and bite the bullet for a year on Dome. Put Colvin at 1B. Byrd moves over to RF. 2012 go get Gonzalez or Fielder for 1B. And Colvin moves to a 4th OF or a platoon with Byrd.
Why piddle around on stop-gap guys, when a true under 30 superstar is there for the taking?
Try to catch lightening in a bottle
I like the idea of Colvin at 1B. I also like going after the kind of guy who has been dubbed a 4A player and seeing what happens.
The biggest thing I don’t like about Berkman/LaRoche/Johnson is that none of them would really give us a much better chance of celebrating in early November in 2011. I would rather use this year to roll the dice and who knows maybe Hendry can nab a guy who a change of scenery works wonders for. More likely, that guy would be a one year stopgap then you go all in for 2012.
Eamus Ursuli!
So what?
Jeromy Burnitz was a decent right fielder for the Cubs in 2005. He wasn’t what kept the team from finishing better (injuries to Wood and Prior did that), he was cheap and gone after one year.
True, but...
Why not take a shot at someone who might actually be a long term answer? If the only goal is to wait for the 1B Free agent sweepstakes of 2011-2012 offseason, then why spend money on a Jeromy Burnitz type?
Eamus Ursuli!
Well ...
because LaRoche at first and Colvin in right would be better than Colvin at first and Kosuke in right.
not better
than Crawford in CF, Byrd in RF, and Colvin at 1B with 1B open for Gonz or Fielder in 2012 with Crawford still on your team.
Agreed.
But do you think the Cubs will pay for Crawford? I don’t.
Hendry needs some stones
this is where you need a strong GM. A plan for this year with a look to 2012 and beyond is needed.
We pass on Crawford and then whiff on Gonz or Fielder with just adding LaRoche/Johnson on a one-year deal will set the franchise back further. Go get the young superstar now and have a payroll plan laid out for Rciketts on how the finances are kept in line.
He’s gotta see if Archer/McNutt/Carp/Jackson/Cashner can develop into legitmate big leagues and use the savings of Demp or Z or Silva in the future to balance the books.
The Cubs need some speed badly. They still struggle manufacturing runs.
Young?
Carl Crawford will be 30 next year. Clearly, he’s not geriatric, but he’s not young, either. And he certainly won’t be young by the end of the contract he will likely receive this offseason.
He is in his prime and will be for 5-6 years
but the Cubs will likely pick him up after this contract when he is 35-36.
Players typically aren't in their primes at 35 or 36.
Unless they’re Barry Bonds. Frankly, this is exactly the kind of thinking that prompted the Cubs to sign Soriano after 2006, when he was about the same age that Crawford is now.
Soriano turned 33 in 2009. Would you say the past two years were on par with his prime years?
Sori
was 2 years older than Crawford at this point. Would you have taken Sori’s last 2 years in TEX/WAS and first two years in CHI? I would have. You are negating an injury as well.
Sori was 31 on Opening Day 2007, and Crawford will be 30 this August.
So, yes, that’s about a year and a half difference. Crawford will probably be better in year three and four of his contract than Soriano was. But you said that Crawford would be in his prime at 35 and 36 — and I truly doubt that.
Crawford
plays a lot like Jeter, in my opinion. How was Jeter from 30-35? Pretty good, if you ask me.
Will the Cubs go get him. No. Hendry lascks the ability to build things short-term and long-term. Get ready for a LaRoche or Johnson playing 1B in 2011. And then seriously overpaying for a 1B in 2012 and praying that Jackson turns out to be the OF we all hope for.
I don't disagree with your assessment of Hendry.
But this decision might be out of his hands.
true
as I said, this is where Ricketts needs strong GM making his baseball decisions. Lay out a case to get Crawford today for a competitive team this year and a chance at a great team in 2012. Hendry to Ricketts, “Kosuke comes off the books. Ramirez, Silva, Demp, Z can all come off the books. Byrd is off. I can give you back the $15MM you spend today in 2012 and 2013. We need one of Archer, Cashner, or McNutt to develop into a starter and when BJax is ready, we have OF flexibility. The one glaring hole is 1B. We can re-up Rami or go get Gonzalez or Fielder. I believe in 2012 and beyond we will bring the World Championship to our fans and organization.”
Unfortunately I think our GM’s conversation would go, “I want Crawford. It will cost us 5 for $75MM.” Ricketts replies, “No.” “No?” says Hendry. “Why not?” “Not in this years budget,” says Ricketts. “Ok. Yes sir. I won’t ask again. Let’s go get some Lou Malnati’s.” Hendry says walking out of his office.
I truly don't know enough about Carl Crawford.
And I don’t know how much money the Cubs have to spend this offseason. But if it’s a choice between giving Crawford 6 years and $90 million or Dunn 4 years and $44, I’d go with Crawford.
(Though I think Dunn can be had for less. He only got $20 million two years ago, so I’m not sure why he thinks he can get twice as much now.)
One nice thing about Crawford is that he’ll get more years, so the Cubs could more easily backload a contract.
Hmmm. Maybe this isn’t a pipedream, socal …
it's a pipedream
because our GM is not an “alpha male” and operates in the buddy-buddy world. This would be a bold brash move by a tough-minded GM with a firm plan in place for 2012, 2013, and 2014. I think Hendry is at the point of hoping 2011 morphs back into a 2003 season where they play a little above .500 and then Ricketts tells him to “go for it” at the AS Break and everything falls into place with a major deal or two.
It probably is.
This is where it would be extremely helpful to know exactly how much the payroll will drop. If it’s to about $140 million, the Cubs might be able to give Crawford $12 million in 2011 and more in the following years.
But I’m forgetting the stated needs: a first baseman, another starter, the bullpen
Sigh.
that is the prob--true needs
this is where he needs to get creative—add a big piece to maybe a spot that doens’t make the most sense knowing next year is the year for a 1B. I feel bullpen will be much the same with maybe a older vet getting a small deal—someone like the Saito signing for ATL this year. I also don’t think they will sign a starter using in-house options.
I’d love to see Hendry “Frontload” a deal now with a huge bonus and have it scaled back as the contract grows giving more payroll flexibility when 6 more deals come off the books over the next 3-4 years.
The only thing is that the Dunn market will be smaller
especially if Dunn wants to stay in the NL. I don’t see that many teams willing to give Dunn $10+ million. Even the Nationals are a bit leery on Dunn. Not saying I’m sold on Dunn but I just don’t see a huge payday for him especially after a somewhat down year for him.
Crawford on the other hand could have numerous teams interested including the Yankees.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
That's why I've been nominally on the Dunn bandwagon.
If the Cubs could get him for two years, $25 million with a mutual option, that might be worth doing. I also don’t think it’s completely impossible, given Dunn (when he was 2 years younger) only got $20 million from the Nats.
But if Dunn takes more than two guaranteed years, I think I’d rather give Crawford six.
I bet 2 for $25 million would get it done
I go through the list of teams and even counting the AL I don’t see that many takers.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
If you're right, I think he's a Cub next year.
And I’m fine with that.
I just look at it and who else would pay something like that?
Teams with 1st baseman: Philly, Florida, Mets, Cincy, StL, Milw, SD.
Probably won’t pay that: Atlanta, Houston, Pitt, Colorado, Los Angeles, Arizona.
Could be interested: Washington, Chicago, SF.
So if you assume the Nationals won’t sign him by the deadline and the Giants would prefer to keep Huff, I don’t see anyone else in the NL.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
The only AL candidates I see are
White Sox, Texas (if they don’t sign Lee), Baltimore and Anaheim (if they don’t sign Crawford). I heard Baltimore might make a run for Victor Martinez though.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
I went back and forth on them
but they probably should be included. I guess I was thinking after their recent big contract deals they might be leery but they are free from Ordonez.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
reports
out of NY are that the Yankees will not pursue Crawford. Simply because they don’t need him. They are happy with Gardner and don’t see Crawford as an upgrade of 15X Gardner (salary for salary). They are going for pitching—Lee will be their #1 target. I think the Angels and Dodgers make the biggest splash for him. I think the Cubs could land him if they really wanted him.
Could be right
since the Yanks also have Swisher under contract. Still if they do lose out on Lee I think they have to make some splash.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Also
will Crawford have any desire to move to CF, a position he has spent 11 games at since 2004 and 54 games for his career?
ok
keep Crawford in LF, Byrd in CF, and move Sori to RF. I would bet there at $15MM reasons he wouldn’t bat an eye at moving to CF.
No, no, no, no.
That’s a terrible idea. Wrigley is about the toughest right field to play in the majors. Soriano playing there would be tragically comical. I suppose you could put Crawford in right. But he’ll want a lot of years.
I agree
but was repsonding to the above. Crawford would play CF if paid. It’s not like he is being asked to move to play 2B.
He might be willing.
Just like Soriano was willing in 2007. How’d that work out?
are you really arguing this?
Crawford is a carreer OF. Sori played 1 year and then hit the FA market and then was asked to change postiions. This is not apples to apples at all.
That's a good point.
But should Crawford sign with the Cubs, he would probably spend his time in right, not in center.
Anyway, I doubt Ricketts will greenlight a 6 year, $90 million contract.
I guess he might move for the right price
but if he wants to play LF, he’ll have plenty of options with plenty of money. The Cubs aren’t exactly in the best position to be the highest bidders there.
Hendry will buy Gonzalez the biggest steak in the world...
and sign him to a 1 million year $10000000000000000000000000 contract!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
"My favorite food is Macaroni and Cheese, from the blue box." Geovany Soto
"They played like son of a guns......lord have mercy." Mike Quade
For one million years?
He’d only have to give $100 a year, right? That should be an easy deal to make.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Crawford also prefers not to lead-off.
Just saying before someone posts that he is the leadoff hitter we need.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Nov 5, 2010 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions
My opinion of this hunt for a 1b is not informed by multiple years of experience
like many of you guys. However, I do find it strange that so many would be willing to pass on Dunn (or a trade for Gonzalez), when the general consensus (among yourselves, though perhaps I am poorly informed here) seems to be that Gonzalez is a lock for Boston should he reach FA.
Personally I like the idea of trading for A-Gon and then signing him to an extension, which is in some way assured (or at least the prospect of him re-signing is assured, though in reality my lack of knowledge means I have no idea how practical this is) or signing Dunn now. To my mind at least, if you wait til 2012 Pujols is a no-go. Gonzalez appears to be Boston-bound and Fielder is going to command similar money with a distinctly lower upside.
It seems to me that the general trend of thought is to advocate waiting until 2012 to fill a position which in reality may be very difficult to fill by then (at least with a desirable enough player). Especially since so many of you say unequivocally that you would not even consider Fielder a legitimate candidate. It appears a distinct possibility that we will all be rueing missed opportunities come 2012 and not celebrating our new big bat.
Maybe I’m totally wrong though :p
The way the A-Gon deal would work
is the Cubs and Padres agree to the trade with the Cubs getting a window of several days to work an extension. If an extension can’t be reached the deal falls through. That is the only way an A-Gon deal would be done.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Then a trade for him is risky
at best, I suppose? Since presumably his deciding on signing an extension will be based on so many variables which are difficult to account for (how the cubs perform, how keen he is to test FA, assurances from the Cubs that they are building a genuine contender, how interested he is in a ring etc.)
If that was the case then personally I would promote the kind of short-term Dunn deal being discussed above, if it were possible.
I should add that I definitely don't think any player is worth
a couple of great prospects for one guaranteed season, especially for a team that isn’t likely to contend in ’11.
by English Cub Fan on Nov 5, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
The trade would not be risky
The Cubs would get a window to sign him to an extension or the trade doesn’t happen. The Cubs wouldn’t lose anything.
I don’t expect a trade to happen but if it does, a window for the extension would be a given to me.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
I addressed the extension window issue above
but I am doubtful that Gonzalez would be interested in signing an extension before hitting FA. That, in my mind, makes it unlikely the Cubs would trade for him, nor do I think they should if they can’t extend him. But it also means he is fairly likely to make it to free agency.
I mean trisky in the sense that it provides no assurances of re-signing him
by English Cub Fan on Nov 5, 2010 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Colloquialism, or idiocy?
You decide!
by English Cub Fan on Nov 5, 2010 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions
+100 BCB points for using "colloquialism" in a post.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
hoyer said gonzalez will probably test the market
He's my Hossa
HO-HO-HO-HO-HOSSA
by jesus christos on Nov 5, 2010 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions
And it sounds like he will ask for Teixeira type money.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Nov 5, 2010 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions
The idea of Dunn,
Crawford, Cliff Lee, and Gonzalez is a pipe dream IMO. I see no indication that this owner would spend any type of coin when everyday he sees the payroll ledger with Dempster, Z, Ramy, Soriano, Silva, and Dome and has the dry heaves starts.
He has repeateldy stated he wants to run this franchise like the Red Sox and get players within. So the idea of a big ticket item like Dunn, Lee, Crawford is not going to happen. And a trade of Gonzalez where the Cubs would have to give up at least 3 top prospects go against every thing he has stated about his franchise up to now.
I think Nick Johnson, La Roche or Berkman is the Cubs first baseman next year. If you held a gun to my head the cheapest option will be in a Cub uniform next year.
that is such a myth
The Red Sox have had less than half their players be “home grown” as Youk, Pedroia, and Ellsbury are the only ones on the offensive side—Drew, Bay, Scutaro, Beltre, Lowell, Ortiz, V. Martinez, Lopez, and Varitek all came from other organizations (not to mention Damon and Ramirez and Pedro and Schilling). Lester and Buccholz along with Bard and Papelbon round out the pitchers. Beckett, Dice-K, Okajima, Wakefield, and Lackey all came from outside.
They need to spend wisely.
LaRoache
Does he still suffer from ADD or is it pretty much under control now that his condition was finally diagnosed? Arizona passed on his second year because he stikes out to much (granted it was a team problem), just like the Nationals will probably pass on Dunn because of his defense (MLBTR has the Nationals hoping to replace Dunn with the superior defender in Carlos Pena). It almost seems dooming that the Cubs could pick guys that even worse teams are shedding.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Nov 5, 2010 7:20 PM CDT reply actions
Stick with the guns
Till some payroll clears because neither Adam is a game changer.
John
by Ionnes on Nov 5, 2010 7:29 PM CDT reply actions
if the cubs
really wanted adam dunn they could make it work.when hendry had his man crush on bradley he freed up the money. outside of aramis and maybe colvin there are no power threats.so unless this team learns to play small ball,and we know how unlikely that is we need another bopper.and please jim nick johnson?????do your homework. his biggest talent is collecting a paycheck.
LaRoche for one year
is a much better deal than Dunn for 3+ years
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
no
"That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June."
- Big boy Frankie
by lexmarklover on Nov 6, 2010 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes
But what makes you so sure we’ll be able to get LaRoche on a 1-year deal?
Pat Riley is the devil.
I'm not
but I think there is a better chance of that than getting Dunn for a couple of years. LaRoche has fewer options I suspect.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Nov 8, 2010 8:09 AM CST up reply actions
LaRoche for one year or Dunn for two
I still think both are feasible. I just don’t see a big market for Dunn. If he wants to stay in NL, the Cubs are the most probable destination. If he is open to a DH then a few more possibilities like Detroit and Anaheim are possible.
For LaRoche, you offer a one year deal, if he says no then forget him.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
Is there even a chance
that A-Ram (and the Cubs) would consider a move to first base, I know, he isn’t left handed and all of that, but he’s not getting any younger. Then they could move Castro to third and bring up our other hot shot shortstop from the minors and see what happens.
by cubfaninplattsburgh on Nov 6, 2010 11:12 AM CDT reply actions
Our "other hot shot SS"
… is only 19 and has not played above A-ball. He’s not ready.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
asgdhfdaqyhf
He's my Hossa
HO-HO-HO-HO-HOSSA
by jesus christos on Nov 6, 2010 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
with so little to gain
by spending the money on a free agent 1B, i’d prefer to see the cubs start the year with a platoon at 1B. from the left side you use one of bryan lahair/micah hoffpauir and jeff baker/xavier nady from the right.
I read something about how Chase Field greatly increases your offensive production
We see that with Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson. With that being said, I would rather convince Carlos Pena or Lance Berkman into a one year deal. If AGon is available right now, make the deal immediately. Give up Vitters and whoever they want. He is a once in a lifetime player, and he’s only 28.
"That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June."
- Big boy Frankie
Chase is a hitter's park
For what it’s worth, LaRoche actually put up his worst offensive numbers since 2005 playing half his games there. Which is odd (disconcerting?) considering the pitcher friendly parks he played in in Atlanta and Pittsburgh. His production at chase was only slightly better this year than on the road (.345 home wOBA with 13 HR, .333 road wOBA with 12 HR).
Berkman, ugh.
Pena, double ugh. If the Cubs signed Pena we’d be subjected to hundreds of posts here about “how could they sign that strikeout artist”.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The strikeout thing is getting a little annoying.
I would give up 199 Ks for 38 HRs, 103 RBIs, and .536 SLG. If you want power and actual production, strikeouts will have to suffer. There is only one Albert Pujols in the world. Disregarding last season, Dunn and Pena are extremely similar players. However, Pena is three times better defensively. Not to mention, he walks at least 85 times each year. He is 32 though. Maybe not Pena cause of his age, but those who criticize Dunn for his strikeout totals do not understand power hitters.
"That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June."
- Big boy Frankie
That's not what Pena hit in 2010.
In 2010, Pena hit .196/.325/.407. Those are brutal numbers. Yes, I understand the value of walks. Sign Pena and you’re getting Rob Deer, only older.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That was a general statement about Pena and Dunn.
Everyone complains about Dunn’s strikeouts. He doesn’t hit for average people; he’s a freaking power hitter that hits a lot of home runs and drives in a lot of runs. Strikeouts come with the territory. I understand when people bitch about his defense, but don’t bitch about his strikeouts.
"That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June."
- Big boy Frankie
Calling BS on that one, Al
While Pena’s offensive numbers looked Deer-like, Pena is still a gold glove caliber 1B, something no one ever accused Rob Deer of.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Nov 8, 2010 8:11 AM CST up reply actions
They were ... this season
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Nov 9, 2010 8:08 AM CST up reply actions
Most people aren't going to agree with me, but this offseason will be successful
if the Cubs can sign Dunn, Hudson, Wood, and a starting pitcher (maybe Garland, yeah I’m drawing a blank cause there are no good SPs that are actual possibilities).
"That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June."
- Big boy Frankie
I'll take whatever lexmark is drinking.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Nov 8, 2010 8:11 AM CST up reply actions
I think many people would agree with you
that if they sign all those guys then the off-season will be a success.
You may be alone though if you think the Cubs will actually sign those guys.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
1/2 ass
I like how people feel like they can comment, with muster, after reading 1/2 of the 1st line of a post. If someone takes the time to write down their thoughts, either read the entire thing and then comment, or leave your ignorance to yourself.
does anyone
really think ricketts will kick out the money for gonzalez if they wont pay for dunn. gonzalez will be looking for 22 mill a year. thats insane. these players live in a wonderfull fantasy world. god bless em.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bleed Cubbie Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Cubs By The Numbers
Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.
Click here to order your copy, available now!
Recent Stories in Chicago Cubs Game Threads
Recent Stories in Ticket Exchanges
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
