Revisiting the 2002 Draft
by cubsfan1 on Dec 17, 2010 6:23 AM CST
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PrintThis is just a fun little piece going back 8 years and looking at who the Cubs had a chance to draft in the 1st 2 rounds. Now obviously it's easy to look back 8 years with hindsight being 20/20 and say we should have took this guy or that guy. We had picks 21, 32, 36, 38, 56, and 62 between the 1st, sup1st, and 2nd rounds. With these 6 picks we basically got nothing usefull. Here is the list of players we drafted:
21. RHP Bobby Brownlie 2.5M
32. LHP Luke Hagerty 1.15M
36. RHP Chadd Blasko 1.05M
38. RHP Matt Clanton 875K
56. 1B Brian Dopriak 740K
62. LHP Justin Jones 625K
A pretty uninspiring list of players who we spent 6.94 million on. Now I'm gonna go back and take the player who I think we should have taken and list where they went and what they signed for. Now I understand that once the Cubs take someone diferent it changes the whole draft but in this case we will just assume that everyone still goes in the same place just swapped out for 1 of our picks.The player we pick will come after our draft slot. Again this is just for fun.
21. RHP Matt Cain (25th, Giants) 1.375
32. 1B Joey Votto (44th, Reds) 600K
36. LHP Jon Lester (57th Red Sox) 1M
38. RHP Johnathan Broxton (60th Dodgers) 685K
56. C Brian McCaan (64th Braves) 750K
62 OF Curtis Granderson (80th Tigers) 469K
That would have been 1 hell of a haul that cost 4.879 million. Had we made thses picks our roster would be W.S. worthy. To add 2 front of the rotation SP, shutdown closer, A.S. 1B and C, and a solid CF. Again this is hindsight but thought it would be fun to see what might have been had we spent our 6 premium picks better. This is not a knock on the Cubs nessarily because as I said it's not really fair to come back 8 years later and say this was the obvious pick.
Here is how our roster could potentially shake out. I've moved Soriano to 2B for no other reason then to get his bat in the line up so don't get on and tell me how stupid it would be because I know. Here is how our roster shakes out.
CF. Granderson L
SS. Castro R
1B. Votto L
3B. Ramirez R
LF. McCaan L
C. Soto R
RF. Byrd R
2B. Soriano R
Bench: C. Chirinos, MIF. Barney, CIF. DeWitt, OF. Colvin, OF. Guyer/B.Jackson
RHP Matt Cain
LHP Jon Lester
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Andrew Cashner
Bullpen:
CL. RHP Jon Broxton
SU. RHP Carlos Marmol
LHP Sean Marshall
MR. LHP Tom Gorzelanny
RHP Randy Wells
1st Call ups - RHP Chris Archer and CF. Brett Jackson
Not a bad well rounded roster. I know this really has no relevence it's just for fun. Figured it would be a fun read if nothing else.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Jim Hendry draft I presume
Just think if the Cubs just take two of the six, say Cain and Lester.
Drafts are not about being perfect, just good. Obviously this was not good.
This is not hindsight it is critical comparitable analysis on judgment
It is simply an indictment as if I were the top exec I would say WTF!!!!!
An orangutan could pick better and that is at the same time insulting a fine Great Ape race.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Wouldn't be the first time
"Easy on the words, brother,'' Quade said.
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 17, 2010 9:16 AM CST up reply actions
I agree actually
We could have had a better draft if we picked players names out of a hat. I think this says a lot about the Cubs organization’s ability to evaluate talent at this time. With that many picks, you’d think there would be at least one player of some value, alas, it netted the Cubs exactly nothing.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
It is 100% hindsight, nothing more
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 18, 2010 9:02 AM CST up reply actions
FWIW
Dopirak just signed a minor league deal with the Astros.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
eh...
this type of “analysis” is fun, but its not really fair. I’m not defending the Cubs draft by any means, clearly it was one of the weaker ones out there and should be ridiculed, but comparing the bar as “the best pick any team made in a round” isn’t fair at all.
outside of Cain, every single team passed on these players at least once.
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 17, 2010 10:00 AM CST reply actions
I already said
it wasn’t fair going back 8 years with hindsight. it was just a fun post i did to kill some time until opening day.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
Which also tells you...
… that the focus on “missing” a #1 pick is overblown. Some very fine players come from lower rounds.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It really is remarkable to see...
…how low some of those picks were — Cain, Votto. Wow.
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Its amazing to see a small market team
willing to go overslot in later rounds to sign an impact player like Votto. Its been said here before by many people, how many times have the Cubs spent money on the John Grabows of the world instead of exercising their financial advantage in the draft? I can forgive the misses on big ticket free agents, they are risky by their very nature of investing so many dollars in one player. What I can’t forgive is for consistently overpaying for mediocre talent.
by neifiisgreat on Dec 18, 2010 2:58 PM CST up reply actions
i think you are confused
votto was drafted in the second round (44th overall) for just $600k. at the time, votto was considered a signability pick by the reds.
by circuitclout on Dec 18, 2010 5:06 PM CST up reply actions
You're right, I misread the round,
but I believe that is still overslot for the second round, back in 2002.
by neifiisgreat on Dec 18, 2010 5:56 PM CST up reply actions
there was no slotting system in 2002
just look at the bonuses in this article and you’ll see that votto signed for just $600K, less than every player on the list but curtis granderson who was drafted 80th overall.
by circuitclout on Dec 18, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
You keep saying this,
but it doesn’t make it true. You take some random example player who was picked in the bottom half of the draft and act like that is a common way to develop players. There are articles done with actual numbers and research that show just how valuable 1st round picks are, relative to the other rounds and relative to acquiring free agents; here is a link to just one article http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/ The Cubs misses in the high rounds of the draft have really hurt them, no matter how much you deny it, and how many red herring examples you throw out there..
by neifiisgreat on Dec 18, 2010 2:55 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
2002 was a particularly horrific draft
but only because the Cubs had four first round picks. They were taking a lot of high-risk/high upside arms that year and hit on none of them. The best player the Cubs got out of that draft was a catcher they took in the 38th round, Randy Wells. The 2005 draft was even worse, as the only major leaguer the Cubs took that year is a Donald Veal.
But it’s not really fair to do these “should have taken” lists, as you could do that for every team in the majors and make them look foolish. Six teams might look good for one pick, but then they look terrible with their other five picks. Such is the nature of the draft.
The Cubs actually had an excellent draft the year before in 2001, when their first five picks all made the majors and six of their first seven: Mark Prior, Andy Sisco, Ryan Theriot, Ricky Nolasco, Brendan Harris and Sergio Mitre. The best player they got was Geovany Soto in the 11th round. They also drafted Kahlil Greene, but failed to sign him.
Jeez
“But it’s not really fair to do these "should have taken" lists, as you could do that for every team in the majors and make them look foolish”
No kidding I eluded to this fact at least 3 times in my post. My point was not to say how bad the Cubs were but just to see what could have been. Like I’ve stated numerous times this was just a fun post that would kill some time until opening day. jeez.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
But you know and I know
that’s not how it’s going to be taken.
Still, your point that the 2002 draft was a terrible one is still valid.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 17, 2010 3:20 PM CST up reply actions
valid and indisputable
ask not what the Cubs can do for you - ask what you can do for the Cubs.
by holy mackeral on Dec 17, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
I would agree that hypothesizing all-star players who "could have been picked" is unfair
But getting completely shut out on a draft is awful.
We did get one useful thing out of these picks
Justin Jones was sent to the Twins as part of the Garciaparra trade.
by Jody Jody Davis on Dec 17, 2010 2:06 PM CST reply actions
Well, they got Murton in that trade too.
And since the Cubs were so desperate for a SS in 2004 that they exhumed Rey Ordonez before the Garciaparra trade, yes, I’d say that was useful.
by Jody Jody Davis on Dec 17, 2010 9:03 PM CST up reply actions
Find the man who engineered this draft and PROMOTE HIM IMMEDIATELY!
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
5 of those guys were top prospects in what was then a
pretty hyped farm system. They just didn’t pan out.
Brownlie though...
was a bad pick. IIRC he hurt his arm the year he was drafted, but they took him anyway. Precursor of events to come I guess…
John Stockstill
Since you all like to rip Jim Hendry every chance you get, you ought to know that Jim Hendry was not the scouting director for this draft. It was John Stockstill, and he’s no longer with the Cubs (Baltimore, I think). Tim Wilken was brought in for drafting purposes, and it’s pretty hard to deny he’s done a very nice job since he came on board.
True - Hendry was VP of Player Personnel at the time.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
TINSTAAPP
the cubs 2002 draft really wasn’t bad, it was just unfortunate. brownlie, hagerty, blasko and jones all had pretty successful debuts before succumbing to injuries. all of those guys were talented and their failure to develop was the result of injuries. that’s the risk you run with pitchers. the cubs are obviously to blame for either not correctly assessing injury risk or having a bad development program for pitchers but it wasn’t as if they drafted guys that were bad, they just happened to draft a bunch of guys that got hurt. sadly, it happens.
Brownlie should never have been drafted.
He fell to the Cubs because he had injury issues that made a lot of teams pass on him. Without those injury issues he was projected to go much higher. The Cubs should have passed, too. Many people said that at the time, too, not just in hindsight.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
you still need the benefit of hindsight
to say you shouldn’t have drafted him. brownlie was talked about as a potential #1 overall pick before shoulder tendinitis damaged his final year at rutgers. he was a reasonable gamble at #21 for a team with the financial resources of the cubs and five picks in the first two rounds.
by circuitclout on Dec 18, 2010 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe.
But the fact is, that the injuries made a lot of teams back off. I know he was talked about as a potential #1 pick overall. The fact that 20 teams passed on him should have been a red flag to the Cubs.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
health is always an issue for pitchers
but i would venture to guess that had the cubs not taken brownlie at #21 he would have been off the board by the time they picked at #32. someone was going to take a chance on brownlie and not taking someone because no one else has taken them is really a terrible draft strategy. and really, brownlie was mostly healthy and pitching well for two years before breaking down in 2005.
i would love to know who else the cubs were looking at in that draft.
by circuitclout on Dec 18, 2010 8:43 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, so would I.
In hindsight, obviously, Matt Cain would have been a better choice.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
this also assumes that when the Cubs changed who they drafted
no one else did to keep the same players available when they draft again.
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
RE:
“Now I understand that once the Cubs take someone diferent it changes the whole draft but in this case we will just assume that everyone still goes in the same place just swapped out for 1 of our picks.The player we pick will come after our draft slot. Again this is just for fun.”
Not to be a dick but I wonder about the reading skills of this community. It’s like nobody bothers to read the post but just get on and bitch.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
by cubsfan1 on Dec 20, 2010 5:49 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
One thing you may not have considered
When the Cubs picks are changed it also changes the available players for when other teams pick you can’t assume everything would have stayed the same
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
DUH
No kidding? I think I addressed that issue. Obviously everything changes. Did you also not read the post or the 1 2 above yours?
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
Are you beginning to see see why hindsight posts like this are silly?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 20, 2010 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
Another thing you may not have considered
Is that my post was pretty obviously a joke. I thought that was apparent. I guess if you have to explain it it’s not funny. Oh well.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
that is not realistic and you know it
so its not reading comprehension, it is more about the logic that is or in this case not being used
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
RE:
The Hardball Times does this type of stuff all the time and I know many ppl find it interesting. If you don’t that’s completly fine just don’t read it. It’s that simple.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
many people find Jerry Springer's show interesting, too
but that does not change the fact that it is trash.
Oh and BTW, try taking your own advice, if you do not like criticism, just don’t read it.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 21, 2010 7:50 AM CST up reply actions
FWIW
i was not bitching about it, nor was I lacking reading comprehension, as you have accused, but rather stating a truth, which would have lead to various options available, and who knows, you could have taken each pick and juggled them somewhat, in a realistic manner, and seen who ends up where. it was nothing more than that.
Now to jump to conclusions as you did while accusing………….
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
Sorry Cubbie-Tim
Wasn’t as much you as the way the whole post was taken. I didn’t mean it as an accusation on the Cubs or that it was even realistic it was just wasting some time. Thought it would be a fun read but the whole thing got taken way outta context.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
its cool
seems that this off season a lot of threads have gone sour, and in many cases for no apparent reason
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
Of course it is. Maybe not ALL of them happening, but ANY of them happening ---
It’s certainly a worthwhile exercise to say “at this pick, the Cubs could have picked player X”. Especially where, as here, the team was essentially shut out of the draft.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Criticizing Cubs' management for poor drafts is fine
I think most would agree, but your what if scenario is hindsight of the worst kind.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
I don't think so. It's fair criticism.
This organization went a couple of decades without producing a star position player. Just as a numbers proposition, that is kind of remarkable. How could they have been SO poor in the draft for so very long?
In this case, it’s not fair to say that the Cubs could have plausibly selected ALL of the multitudes of All-Stars they left on the board. But they certainly could have selected ONE of them. Gosh, even just accidentally. Over the last 20 years, they’d have been better off ignoring all of their scouts and just taking the highest rated names in Baseball America or whatever.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
For example
Taking Ty Griffin instead of Robin Ventura.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
or my favorite
doug glanville one spot ahead of manny ramirez.
by circuitclout on Dec 21, 2010 12:17 PM CST up reply actions
3 of the next 4 picks were Manny, Cliff Floyd, and Shawn Green.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
how much work would it be for the draft to be
“redone” in the same picking order, but the players picked in order of the WAR they have produced to date?
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
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