N.L. Central Outlook
by cubsfan1 on Dec 22, 2010 11:24 AM CST
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PrintNo longer considered a creampuff division that 85 wins could net you a title. The N.L. Centeral now features 3 legitimate playoff caliber teams that should make for a fun year in 2011. The Brewers now have the pitching to go with their lineup, the Cardinals have 2 legit aces to go with Holliday and Pujols and 2 exciting young players in Garcia and Rasmus, and the Reds are a young up and coming team. The Cubs and Astros could make some noise but it's unlikely. The Pirates are well the Pirates but do have some nice young players but lack the pitching to do much of anything.
Here is my quick run down of the division:
Hitting - 1st (division rank) - This lineup should be among the best in the N.L. Braun had a bit of an off year by his standards so I see a return to form for him and Fielder should post big numbers in his contract year to go with Weeks, McGehee, and Hart. This line up is deep and should score a ton of runs. Betancourt and Gomez if nothing else should provide solid gloves.
Pitching - 2nd - Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum are excellent TOR guys. Combine that with a real solid #4 in Randy Wolf and your looking at 55-60 wins that is a good start to 90+ wins. Youngsters Willy Peralta and Mark Rogers should compete for the 5th spot or bullpen help. Axford looked like a good closer and the rest of the pen should be solid.
Outlook - They sold out their farm system for Marcum and Greinke and with Fielder's contract year this is a win now team. Look for them to potentially add another player at the deadline. The line up is great and now they have the SP so while this is the sexy pick it looks like the odds on favriote to me right now.
Hititng - (3rd) - Anytime you got Pujols and Holliday you are gonna score some runs. Look for a step forward in athletic CF Rasmus and you got the makings of a good line up. I considered ranking them 4th but I think players like Molina and Schumaker who do the little things make this lineup play up. Berkman will be looking for a rebound season but playing RF may create some problems.
Pithcing - (1st) - With 2 legit aces in Wainright and Carpenter and youngster Jamie Garcia this is the best staff in the division easily imo. Combine in Jake Westbrook at #4 who pitched better after his switch to the N.L (3.48 era) and posted 202 IP this staff is just a notch below Philly's big 4. The bullpen is good with closer Ryan Franklin and solid the rest of the way.
Overview - LaRussa will have this team ready to contend and always does the little things to win ball games. Serious star power with Carp, Waino, Pujols, and Holliday combined with up and coming youngsters Rasmus and Garcia. The rest of the roster offers solid roll players.
Hitting - (2nd) - Led by reining MVP Joey Votto this line up scored the most runs in the N.L. and could be getting better if Jay Bruce finally takes that step forward. Brandon Phillips is 1 of the best 2B in the game. Drew Stubbs had a fine 1st full season with 22hr and 30 sb and flashing a good glove in CF. While Rolen and Gomes won't replicate their 2010 seasons both should be solid and factor in Yonder Alonso who should get time in the ML possibly replacing Gomes in LF and UTL man Todd Frazier this line up should be stout again.
Pithcing - (3rd) - While this group lacks the ace(s) that the Brewers and Cards feature it is deep and solid. They have 6 potential SP and possibly a 7th depending on what they decide to do with Chapman. Cueto took a semi-step forward and full year of Volquez back from injury should give them a decent top 2 with the rest of the staff filled out with Leake, Wood, Bailey, and Arroyo. Cordero, Chapman, and Masset are the makings of a fine bullpen.
Overview - The Reds have compiled a good young nucleus that won the division last year but maybe headed for some regression. The difference between them and the 2 above is the star quality in pitching.
4. Chicago Cubs
Hitting - 4th - The lineup doesn't have star power it could be much improved from 2010 with a bounce back year's from Ramirez and Pena with a heathly Soto who should get more ABs. Sorinano and Byrd are solid regulars. Castro had a fine season for a 20 year old and could see some of those 31 2B and 5 3B find their way over the fence. Probably won't hit .300 next year but should be in the .280 range and be an all-star caliber player in 2012. The line up is solid but lacks a leadoff hitter that maybe filled at some point by top prospect Brett Jackson.
Pitching - 4th - Dempster and Z form a solid pair but the rest is pretty blah. Cashner probably starts the year in AAA but he and Archer should make apperances at some point in the rotation. The bullpen should be improved with the addition of Kerry Wood. Marmol being set up by Marshall and Wood gives the Cubs an excellent late inning trio.
Overall - If the Cubs are gonna make any playoff noise it will be on the backs of the youngsters playing key roles. If B. Jackson, Archer, and Cashner are ML ready they could make a push but that is probably not gonna happen. They should get key contributions from Chirinos, Barney, J. Jackson, and Guyer also in some form or another. The roster is fairly solid top to bottom but lacks that something special.
Hitting - 6th - Carlos Lee, Micheal Bourn, and Huner Pence form a solid OF but the rest of the diamond is filled out by below league average players unless Brett Wallace and Jason Castro take large steps forward. I can see this lineup having trouble scoring runs.
Pitching - 5th - Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers are a solid 1-2 with Happ and Norris filling out the 3-4 slots. Norris took a step forward at the end of last year and maybe primed for a breakout season in 2011. The bullpen is OK I guess but I just don't believe in Lyons as a closer.
Overview - The SP is decent but the lineup is lacking leaving me to believe they are a step behind the Cubs.
Hitting - 5th - McCutcheon is and exciting player to go with Alvarez and Tabata that forms a nice young nucleus. Walker, Overbay, Jones, and possibly Snyder are nice complementary players. This line up has potential to grow and put some runs on the board. However the problem is.............
Pitching - 12th er...6th- About the best thing I can say here is I believe they plan on filling the 12 staff slots with warm bodies.
Overview - The lineup has potential but the pitching will relegate this team to last.
Now it's early and some moves still will be made as the rest of the free agents land but this should give everyone a solid view of the division. This is shaping up to be a very strong and competitive year for the N.L. Central. Baring any major moves from here until opening day this is how I see they landscape of the division.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Sadly, I can't find much to disagree with here.
That’s about how I’d rank the NL Central right now, though we could probably argue for days about whether the Cards, Reds or Brewers should be on top. I could see the Brew Crew being the “2010 Cincinnati Reds” — i.e., the team that dukes it out with the Cards for most of the season before pulling ahead at the end.
One minor quibble: About the Brewers, you write, “Betancourt and Gomez if nothing else should provide solid gloves.” No argument about Gomez’s defense but, based on everything I’ve read, Yuniesky Betancourt is one of the worst shortstops in MLB — both offensively and defensively. I still think the Brewers came out ahead (for the time being) on the Greinke deal, but he is the biggest immediate risk in its aftermath. I don’t believe Weeks is considered a great defender either, so the two of them could make for a pretty shaky middle infield defensively.
Also, are you expecting Chiniros to win the backup catcher’s position? I never seem to see his name mentioned anywhere besides trade bait.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
Re:Chirinos
Imo he is a better option both defensively and offensively then Castillo and i believe at some point yes he is the backup C.
Also I forgot to point out that you could make a case for ranking the top 3 in any order as you did say.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
And do you really believe Betancourt is a plus defender?
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
let us see what spring brings in this regards
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
There is always a surprise from last year
and why Cubs need to retool on the fly…with their youth
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
I, for one, see the Cardinals imploding this year...
unless they get Pujols signed BEFORE spring training, there will be a ton of pressure on that team to get BACK to the playoffs and to give Pujols a reason to want to re-sign. How would ya like to write that check?This has all the makings of another LeBron-like situation next fall. I think he’ll re-sign, but, I thought LeBron was staying in Cleveland, too.
1) Reds – Dominant in the Central for the next 3 or 4 years.
2) Brewers – 2 year window could close quickly once Fielder leaves next year.
3) Astros – My sleeper.
4) Cards – I’m not sure TLR has the player’s respect like years prior.
5) Cubs – Lame off season keeps them right where they were last year.
6) Pirates – Well, at least they got one of the nicest stadiums.
Can this off season get any worse?
Personally,
I have a hard time with seeing “dominant” and “Central” in the same sentence these days, unless its another division dominating over ours.
Well, even still...
I just don’t feel like any team is going to have a dominance over this division. I feel like the division will go to the least mediocre of the teams. I like what the Reds are doing, but I’m hardly scared of any of them not named Votto. The Cardinals worry me with Pujols, Carp, and Wain, but I just always have this belief they will find a way to screw it up. I also think the Brewers have characterized themselves with mediocrity, and I don’t think they will turn it around enough to dominate. Thus my belief any team not named the Pirates can win this division.
i would argue
3 of the 6 best teams in the NL are from the Central
Phillies
Rockies
Giants
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 22, 2010 5:55 PM CST up reply actions
oops forgot Braves
3 of the top 7
and i don’t feel 8-16 are very close
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 22, 2010 5:55 PM CST up reply actions
Brewers Bullpen
The Brewers took several steps forward in retooling their starting pitching, but there is almost no mention of any Bullpens in this nice writeup. Other than a decent to good closer in Axford, the Brewers have zero bullpen…this has been their issue for years. They finally acquired the starters they needed, but if they go 6 or 7 innings, who gets it to Axford? The Cards are somehow always there, and Cincy will be around for a while with their talent.
by uwwrunner on Dec 22, 2010 1:16 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
And not only is there no mention of bullpens, there's little to no mention of team defense playing a huge factor.
The Brewers have one of the worst defensive teams I’ve seen in awhile. I think that the Reds will win the division by about 3-4 games winning 93.
I also can’t see how the Cards rotation is in any way near the Phillies rotation. You’ve got two very good TOR starters in Carp and Wain, but there are a LOT of injury concerns there, and even when healthy they don’t match up evenly with Halladay and Lee. After that, you’ve got Oswalt for Philly going against a pitcher who had a great rookie campaign, but someone I would expect to have some struggles next year as teams figure him out. Follow that up with Hamels for Philly, and you’re at a #4 pitcher who was the ace when they won a WS title. That rotation is by far the best in baseball and it really isn’t even close.
by bdlugz on Dec 22, 2010 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Hm, yeah, now that you mention it...
…Carlos Gomez may now be the only good defender in the entire Brewers starting lineup.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
A notch below
I said a notch below.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
I think I would rather have
obviously the Phillies, but then the Giants, Brewers, and maybe the Dodgers as having a better rotation than the Cardinals.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
Really?
Is an insider only article or is it general audience? If so, do you have a link? Not questioning you, just am actually curious to read it.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
It is insider only, order of teams is:
Phillies
Giants
A’s
Rays
Red Sox
Brewers
Tigers
Braves
Cards
Dodgers/White Sox
Oh, I thought this was an NL only discussion
Then yeah, that makes sense, which would place the Cards around 5th in the NL. Surprised he put Red Sox and Tigers that high though, probably the only two teams I really disagree with on that list.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
Let's clear a few things up bdlugz
1st off I was refering to the top 4 pitchers. Now let’s brewakdown the stats.
Wainright 20-11 2.42 6.1 WAR 2.86 FIP (12.1 FB, 10.7 SL, 22.4 CB, 4.8 CU) pitch values
Halladay 21-10 2.44 6.6 3.01 (6.5 FB, 18.1 CT, 8.9 CB, 6.1 CU)
Edge – Draw.
Carpenter 16-9 3.22 3.7 3.69 (9.7 FB, 0.6 SL, 12.8 CB, -0.4 CU)
Lee 12-9 3.18 7.1 2.58 (26.4 FB, 0.3 SL, 2.7 CT, 3.1, CB 5.4 CU)
Edge – Lee but it’s marginal.
Garcia 13-8 2.70 3.2 3.41 (8.2 FB, 10.9 CT, 1.8 CB, 0.7 CU)
Hamels 12-11 3.06 3.8 3.67 (12.1 FB, -0.7 CT, 1.2 CB, 9.2 CU)
Edge- Hamels but it’s not as big as you think. Garcia’s CB is awsome and look for a step forward from him.
Westbrook 10-11 4.22 2.3 4.22 (-5.9 FB, 11.0 SL, -3.5 CB, 1.9 CU)
Oswalt 13-13 2.76 4.7 3.27 (17.6 FB, 5.7 SL, 7.3 CB, 7.1 CU)
Edge – Obviously Oswalt who would sit as worst a #2 on just about any staff. Westbrook was more effective in the NL though.
So yes the Phillies overall top 4 are better then the Cards BUT the top 3 imo are pretty damn close but the 4th slot is the vast difference thus saying they are a notch below the Phillies staff. To say “anywhere near” is a bit of an overstatement. I do agree the Phillies SP is the cream of the N.L. and the Giants is on the same level, talking about top 4 starters here, but it’s not as big of a difference as you make it.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
RE:
I was trying to keep this short as it was already a long read. Bullpen’s usually outside of the CL and set up man are usually not clear untill opening day so it’s tough to project bullpens this early. This was just trying to give a quick look at the upcoming year.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
they also have a revolving door it seems
with new faces weekly
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
This is not true
Loe, Braddock, and a healthy Hawkins should get the ball to Axford more often than not. Add Mark Rogers and Capuano into the mix and I don’t think they are looking bad in the bullpen at all. Obviously Melvin felt positive enough about the bullpen to non tender Coffey and trade Villanueva, both of whom have contributed solid innings the past couple of seasons.
Way too early for predictions
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
exactly!!!
Same guys also predicted that bears will win 6-8 games this year and Padres Pirates will be last in their divisions. Well, at least they were partially right.
I don't think you need a crystal ball
to correctly predict where the Pirates will end up in the standings.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
They hit better once the brought up Walker, Alvarez and Tabata. They have a few pitchers who could be an improvement over past years. They’ll probably get some zip from a change in management. I wonder if they have any other prospects knocking on the door. That might not make them all that good, but there is a chance they don’t finish last.
Too early
No one would have guessed Reds were going to win division last year or Cubs to implode in 2009. You don’t know how a team will perform until the season starts…it’s just that simple.
Eh, I don't know.
I don’t think there’s any harm in ranking how the teams are shaping up. But, yeah, making actual predictions is probably a bit much.
Contributing Editor, SB Nation Chicago. Please follow us on Twitter!
The write up was very good
I’ve found myself surprised for almost the last 5 years how the NL Central has turned out.
And there were a lot of people picking the Reds...
Since 2008 actually.
Well then play the Vegas line on the teams with the worst odds.
I bet you can get great odds for the Pirates winning the division.
John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.
I'd rather not put any money on the Pirates
But $20 on Cubs and getting a payoff like that…it can pay for my World Series tickets :)
It's a crap shoot
that’s why they play the games.
I wouldn’t pick any team to win anything at this stage. Think I’ll wait until teams actually play the games.
Correction
If the Cubs by some miracle make a run at the title it will not be because youngsters came through, it will be because old timers like ARam, Z and Soriano had big years.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
I am a beliver of Contract year philosphy
Players play for the same reason we all work. MONEY. A-Ram will has to perform to make cubs pick up his option year. Z option year becomes automatic if he gets votes for cy young (i know this is a crap shot!) Well would be arbitration eligible for the first time and i believe he would do a good job. Both Dome and Pena will be playing for new contracts and there is no better incentive than that. I guess i can include Grabow in this list as well but i have no hopes for him.
Soriano will be a dead weight….. again.
I'd argue that there are more people than we choose to acknowledge
playing professional sports for love of the game instead of the money.
The Cubs CAN surprise...
…if their bullpen plays to top form. Wood, Marshall, Marmol, have the potential to be an awesome back in if you ask me. (hubba hubba)
I really have no idea with what to expect from Pena. Of course, I hope for the best.
If ARam and Sori have great comeback years, and if the backend of the bullpen is as awesome as it can be… I think the Cubs CAN do it.
The only problem is that I don’t expect Aram, and especially Sori to have big years.
I think the Brewers are going all or nothing this year, so between that attitude, and what they have on the field, I believe they are the team to beat. If they are in it, i believe theyll make some big trades during the season to win it all in 2011.
The Card will be capable, but the question is if they will implode. I hope so. TLR should have left already and quite a few Cardinal fans feel the same way. Still, you can never count a team with their 1B guy out.
Hendry… I think this Cubs team can surprise, but I believe we need a little bit more. The potential for surprise is resting on if a lot of people can have BIG years, and I feel that is probably asking too much.
Dang it, Jim… we just need a little bit more!
Where are we going?" — McCoy
“Where they went.” — Kirk
“What if they went nowhere?” — McCoy
Brewers rotation best in division... better than Cardinals (although it is close)
Pitchers tend to improve coming from the AL → NL (esp AL East). Based on that factor, Marcum and Grienke could step it up a notch or two in performance.
Carpenter + Wainright are a better one-two… but for a whole rotaion, I’ll take the Brewers.
Carpenter’s re-injury risk only adds to my ranking.
I disagree
It is close but imo it’s clearly the Cards. As you point out Carp and Waino are a better 1-2 and Garcia/Marcuum is close. Actually I would probably take Garcia easily.
Garcia 13-8 2.70 3.2 3.41 (8.2 FB, 10.9 CT, 1.8 CB, 0.7 CU)
Marcuum 13-8 3.64 3.5 3.74 (-9.6 FB, 3.6 SL, -3.2 CT, -2.8 CB, 26.0 CU)
So as you see it’s fairly close I can see an argument for either I’d take Garcia but for arguments sake I’ll slight edge Marcuum. Westbrook/Wolf is a draw but imo Westbrook is probably the better pitcher. So as you see the edge lays with the Cards. Another point is Gallardo has yet to prove he can pitch a full year. The last 2 years he has tired mightly once hitting August and being shutdown 2 years ago in Sept.
Also a change from the A.L. to the N.L. does not nessarily translate into a step up for a pitcher. Greinke’s team D is basically the same as what it was in KC though he will get much more run support and Marcuum’s fringy FB and being a FB pitcher in Milwaukee may have a negative effect on him.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
The second FB should read flyball
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
Pitchers then to see a decline in their 2nd year.
Look at Randy Wells’ first year compared to Garcia’s. It isn’t that much different. Until Garcia can show us that he is capable being consistant solid low ERA pitchers, then there is no way Garcia is anywhere close to Marcum. Garcia’s walks will come back to hurt him.
by Don't Fear the Reaper on Dec 23, 2010 8:37 AM CST up reply actions
RE:
Wells is a ridiculous comparison. Garcia was a top prospect who features 2 plus pitches. Just becouse Wells saw regression in his 2nd year has absolutley nothing to do with how Garcia will perform in his 2nd full season. Furthermore Garcia’s CB value was fairly low for a guy who has a true 12-6 CB that will improve in 2011.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/
What's a full year?
I also think that AW pitching 230 innings for 2 years and old CC going 230 last year isn’t necessarily a good thing. CC definitely looked creaky toward the end.
Duncan is one i never count out
and with him still coaching in St Louis, anything is possible
Chronologically inept since 2060
"I could be writing this crap!" -- Crow T. Robot
Me: Q: I can run but not walk. Wherever I go, thought follows close behind. What am I?
Wrigster A: Theriot
Cardinals' Achilles heel is their bullpen
it is anything but solid or good. Franklin got by despite a terrible K-rate because he somehow managed to halve his BB-rate from previous years (unlikely to continue) and live on a .261 BABIP while allowing the lowest LD % of his career (also unlikely to continue.) The rest of the guys are terrible, except for McClellan. Motte could be good, but they refuse to use him in pressure situations.
Its hard to argue that the Cubs will win the division...
…but here are a few facts worth pointing out while the discussion is at hand…
The Cubs finished 12 games under .500 with…
- Aramis Ramirez, one of the best hitters on the team, hitting 41pts below his career BA and 46pts below his career OBP. To put that in perspective, his previous worst BA as a Cub was .289 in 2008 and his worst OBP as a Cub was .352 in 2006.
- A 20yr old rookie shortstop. (Though he hit quite well)
- A manager who had all but quit on the team due to family issues and under performance.
- The opening day starter moved to the bullpen and then back into the rotation.
- 182 combined appearances by Esmailin Carided, Brian Schlitter, John Grabow, Thomas Diamond, Mitch Atkins, Jeff Stevens, Marcos Mateo, Justin Berg and Bob Howry, all of whom had ERAs above 5.
- Derrek Lee hit .233 before the break and sported a cool .251/.335/.416 with just 16 HR and 21 2B in 109 games. (Lee had 14 2B in 39 games with Atlanta and hit .287/.384/.465, so maybe he too had quit on the Cubs?)
So reasons to be optimisitic?
- Aramis Ramirez has got to have a rebound year, right? Given how he hit in July and August (.313 BA in July, .301 BA in August) it seems like a safe bet to assume he’ll come closer to his career averages (.282/.240) and perhaps his previous numbers as a Cub.
- Hopefully the bullpen will be much improved with Wood getting the ball in the 7-8th innings, which would allow for proper use of some of the younger guys. A bullpen featuring some of the highly regarded Cubs prospects should be quite the improvement from last year’s patchwork bullpen featuring any live arm the Cubs could find.
- Carlos Pena is a masher, which should add a little power to the lineup that last year struggled to put runs on the board.
All of this coupled with improvement from guys expected to improve (Colvin, Castro, Cashner) and a bounce back year from a few vets that struggled (I’m looking at you, Ramirez) and this team should be in the thick of the race. The Cubs, as I see it, should at the least make things interesting for the Central and with a few deals before the deadline could contend.
So… reasons to be optimistic, I’d think.
"... we get to think of life as an inexhaustible well. Yet everything happens only a certain number of times, and a very small number, really. How many more times will you remember a certain afternoon of your childhood, some afternoon that's so deeply a part of your being that you can't even conceive of your life without it? Perhaps four or five times more. perhaps not even that. How many more times will you watch the full moon rise? Perhaps twenty. And yet it all seems limitless." - Paul Bowles
by Ryan at Cubshub on Dec 23, 2010 9:35 AM CST reply actions
Next year will likely be a bloodbath in the central...
Cubs will be in 4th. If things go great, they may pull off finishing in third… getting someone like Garza (unlikely) would help push us to 3rd – but a move like that should be more about 2012.
I am fairly optimistic of 2013 and beyond.
I have no optimism for this year.
the key
to the cubs winning games will be their hitting. a lot of good pitching was wasted last year as this team struggled to score 2 or 3 runs.
hitting actually seems less uncertain to me in 2011
Depmster and Z are old enough for regression to have a significant impact. Silva will almost certainly come back down to earth. Lilly is gone.
soriano is a solid regular?
his .818 OPS last year is barely serviceable for a left fielder – combined with awful defense, i would say that soriano is definitely not a solid regular. i don’t think he’s really a solid anything.
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