could this be on the heels of a Gorzo trade? Since it’s apparent the Cubs are shopping him hard.

Certainly sounds like the more expensive route to go. I’d consider having him in the Cubs rotation if they could keep Gorzo as insurance.

I’d do this at almost any cost. Garza would benefit from coming to the NL Central from the AL East, as many pitchers do. This would really help the rotation.

Considering that Greinkie probably wouldn’t come here, I think Garza is a good option.

I’d still trade for him though

But this is exactly the kind of trade the Cubs should NOT be making.

Here are some #s from the 2010 season (all according to Fangraphs):

Player A: ERA+ 102, WAR 3.3, 194.1 IP, 3.93 FIP, 4.09 xFIP
Player B: ERA+ 101, WAR 1.8, 204.2 IP, 4.42 FIP, 4.51 xFIP

Player A had a “sophomore slump” and played for a team that went in the toilet.
Player B played for the team with the best record in baseball.

Career #s:
Player A (2 seasons): ERA+ 121, WAR 6.4, 365 IP, FIP 3.92, xFIP 4.18
Player B (5 seasons): ERA+ 107, WAR 9.9, 725.1 IP, FIP 4.26, xFIP 4.45

You might (should) look at those and say “wow, those are pretty similar players… but in a vacuum, Player A is probably at least a little better.” And by now, you may well have figured out who they are.

Player B is Matt Garza.
Player A is………………… Randy Wells.

Now, let’s step out of the vacuum and look at some other bullet points:

Garza plays in the AL East, Wells in the NL Central. Point, Garza.

As evidenced by FIP, Garza has the benefit of much better defense. Point, Wells.

Garza would benefit by a move to the NLC by playing weaker offenses. He would also have a drastically worse defense (and offense, for that matter) to “support” him.

Both are “innings eaters”.

Last season, Garza made $3.3M and is likely in line for a pretty fair raise this year.

Last season, Wells made less than half a million dollars.

Acquiring Garza would make the Cubs better, as he would presumably replace Silva/Coleman (or Gorz, if we trade our only LH starter… which also seems like a bad idea) in the rotation… probably slotting in at #3 (behind Z/Demp).

The Cubs “issues” with SP is the need for a true TOR (which are obviously hard to find), not another #3 (with maybe the upside to be a #2).

So I think the cost in prospects (at least any in the top 6 or 7, anyway) and salary (Garza’s salary should rise pretty quickly) doesn’t improve the Cubs enough to make this deal. If Tampa wants to “give him away”, fine, but that is unlikely to be the case.

Archer, Cashner, or McNutt, I’d do it. FWIW, I think he’s a better pitcher than Gorz, although I am not a huge fan of going with an all right-handed rotation.

Regardless of whether this deal gets done or not, it will be interesting to see how Wells performs this year. If he reverts back to his 2009 form, the Cubs will be in business, if he does and they add Garza, the Cubs would have a very strong 1-4 rotation, which if paired with an average offense could produce a contending team in 2011 and be the foundation of a strong rotation going forward.

Garza just turned 27, and a move to the NL could help him significantly. Also, it is possible that he could continue to develop as a pitcher and get better. He is a similar pitcher to Ryan Dempster IMO (except for Dempster’s 2008 season).

No starter is going to help very much if the Cubs don’t fix their disaster of middle to late relief.
They really need to add two right handed relief pitchers, hopefully one that can set up and one that can go long.

#cubs looking for starter. called on greinke but mid-rotation guy more likely.