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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Baseball Winter Meetings End With MLB Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 Draft begins at 8 am CST Thursday. After it's over, most of the GM's and other baseball personnel will be heading out of Orlando pretty quickly -- especially this year, when it's been unseasonably cold there. So this morning will probably be the end of trade and free agent discussion on an intense basis, although as Jim Hendry said, groundwork can be laid during the meetings for deals made later.

In the three years from 2008-2010, the Cubs took a player in the Rule 5 draft each year. Tim Lahey had a good spring training in 2008, but was the last cut. He wound up waived, claimed by the Phillies, but returned to the Twins before ever pitching in the major leagues. He's still in the Twins' system where he put up a 5.08 ERA in 45 relief appearances last year.

In 2009, the Cubs took David Patton. We all know most of that story -- he languished in the Cubs' bullpen where Lou Piniella seemingly forgot he was there, at one point going 16 days between appearances. They finally stashed him on the DL at the first opportunity.

Last year, Mike Parisi was the selection from the Cardinals. He had a mediocre spring training and the Cubs were able to keep him in their system. After six poor starts (7.84 ERA) between Double-A and Triple-A, he too wound up on the DL; he's been re-signed to a minor league contract.

The point here is: unless there's a real sure shot, I'd like the Cubs to pass on taking anyone this morning. Yes, I know that Josh Hamilton and Johan Santana and Joakim Soria and Dan Uggla and others who have been taken in Rule 5 and become stars. They are few and far between. I'd prefer the Cubs pass on any selections today.

Use this thread for all Rule 5 discussion and other dealmaking today.

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Wonder if

all this Garza talk is legit. No B Jaxx or Archer please.

by Grockcubs on Dec 9, 2010 8:11 AM CST reply actions  

Maybe one

Koby Clemons from the Stros?

Plays 1B, converted over from 3B (Played 3 games at third last year). At Corpus Christi (AA) last year he hit .241/.350/.476 with 26 HR. .991 Fielding percentage in 111 games at first.

He was Houston’s ML PoY in 2009. Not sure why he never got a callup, but might be worth a shot on the bench?

[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."

by NobodySpecial on Dec 9, 2010 8:11 AM CST reply actions  

The Cubs have made a selection.

They chose Mason Tobin, a RHP from the Angels system who has never pitched above High-A.

I really, truly do not understand this. Via tweet from Carrie.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:12 AM CST reply actions  

Ooooookay.

Can we trade in Hendry on a new model?

[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."

by NobodySpecial on Dec 9, 2010 8:15 AM CST up reply actions  

Seriously.

And not only that, Tobin did not pitch at all in 2010. Look at his record, which I linked above. His last stats are from 2009.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:16 AM CST up reply actions  

I did find this blurb from 2009.

Report

Against Loney and Martin, Tobin’s fastballs ranged from 95.0 to 97.3. Against Kemp and Blake, his fourth hitter, he only got above 95.2 once, and that was his last pitch (96.2). Even Tobin may have lost a bit of the fastball, he did introduce another weapon – the slurve.

Tobin’s slurve has some nice lateral spin movement on it. He throws from a fairly low arm slot, and as mentioned above, isn’t a slider or a curve. Given his fastball velocity, you’d expect Tobin to throw a slider in the 80s, not the 70s. Tobin also released the pitch a little higher than he did the fastballs.

[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."

by NobodySpecial on Dec 9, 2010 8:18 AM CST up reply actions  

Well, you can forget about Tobin.

Further tweet from Carrie:

#cubs have traded rule 5 pick mason tobin to #rangers for cash considerations

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:20 AM CST up reply actions  

You know now...

Tobin is going to turn into the next Cliff Lee and we will never hear the end of how we traded him (al la Josh Hamilton)

See the Cubs 2011 schedule at http://cubsbythenumbers.com/sched2011.html
Also see what old Cubs Scorecards looked like at http://cubsbythenumbers.com/scorecards.html

by kaseyi on Dec 9, 2010 8:25 AM CST up reply actions  

LOL

I was thinking the same thing.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

Of course he is.

"I'm not a broadcaster! I'm me!"--Ron Santo

by chilango2 on Dec 9, 2010 10:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Don't understand the Rangers, either

This guy had TJ surgery last year.

[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."

by NobodySpecial on Dec 9, 2010 8:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Well, except

Dempster was a major league pitcher with experience, and had been on the All-Star team.

Tobin hasn’t pitched above High-A.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 9:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Sure, that counts, point taken

But TJ surgery can be a crap shoot though.

Just win the next game...!

by blackhawk24 on Dec 9, 2010 9:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Correct me if I'm wrong...

… but won’t the Rangers likely start him on the DL? They’ll send him to extended spring training and go through whatever, all while on the DL. As long as he spends the last few months on the major league roster, he’ll be good to go. But the point is that the Rangers will get to make initial evaluations of him without having him on the major league 25 man roster.

by dmlichte on Dec 9, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Probably.

But won’t they still have to send a player to the Angels in return for keeping him?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 9:49 AM CST up reply actions  

DL Stint

Again, I may be wrong here, but I believe that someone taken via the Rule 5 has to only spend 60 days on the active roster. If he has an injury, he can be put on the DL, then go through the various rehab stints. This is a guy who has a built in DL excuse, so he can go straight onto the DL, then spend a few months “rehabbing”, before he actually has to go onto the major league roster. If he doesn’t spend 60 (or 90 perhaps) days on the roster, I believe they would have to offer him back, or perhaps go through the same ordeal next year.

by dmlichte on Dec 9, 2010 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

That's correct.

That’s what the Cubs did with David Patton.

I can’t imagine the Rangers keeping Tobin on the active roster for 60 days. Most likely, if they want to keep him, they’d offer the Angels a player in trade.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 11:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Probably not...

… but at least they’ll be able to evaluate him for several months without taking up the roster spot. Typically teams have to start with their Rule 5 players on the active roster and then find a reason to stash them on the DL. In this case, its the other way around. They can evaluate Tobin and if they see he has promise, they can bring him up in late July.

by dmlichte on Dec 9, 2010 12:33 PM CST up reply actions  

He had TJ surger? That can only mean one thing...

Next year he’ll be throwing fastballs!!!!!!!!!! and curveballs!!!!!!!!!!! and most excellent sliders!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Dec 9, 2010 8:53 PM CST up reply actions  

So we got free money?

Sweet! Sounds like a good deal to me

Chicago fan stuck in Florida.
Cubs, Bears, Bulls. RIP Santo

by alkappy on Dec 9, 2010 9:54 AM CST up reply actions  

I can't wait for the fanposts in a few years

This is the next Josh Hamilton! Hendry is being a nice guy!

by jerry morales rules on Dec 9, 2010 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think Tobin was picked to stay with the Cubs
But don’t get uniform for him just yet

Carries tweet seems to imply there is a trade in the offing.

See the Cubs 2011 schedule at http://cubsbythenumbers.com/sched2011.html
Also see what old Cubs Scorecards looked like at http://cubsbythenumbers.com/scorecards.html

by kaseyi on Dec 9, 2010 8:20 AM CST up reply actions  

You're right.

See above.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Heaven forbid

if he turns himself into the Josh Hamilton of relief pitching, oh the comments will roll.

by Grockcubs on Dec 9, 2010 8:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh Great

##$Q#$@# I can’t believe the Cubs just traded away the 2014 AL Cy Young award winner!!!!!

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Dec 9, 2010 8:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Straight cash, homey

[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."

by NobodySpecial on Dec 9, 2010 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

Actually, no.

Signing Carlos Pena made the 40-man roster full. It’s now at 40.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:30 AM CST up reply actions  

pena hasn't been added yet

if he had, the cubs wouldn’t have been able to make a selection in the rule 5 draft.

by circuitclout on Dec 9, 2010 10:22 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm not sure what the official procedures are

but the Cubs 40-man roster already lists him, so I’m thinking he HAS been added.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 11:10 AM CST up reply actions  

my understanding

was that a team could not make a selection if their 40-man was full, so i’d guess pena wasn’t officially added until after the rule five draft.

by circuitclout on Dec 9, 2010 7:34 PM CST up reply actions  

That makes sense.

Unless the Cubs had no intention of taking anyone anyway.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 10, 2010 7:54 AM CST up reply actions  

Hardly big news

Like the idea of Matt Garza but not an all-righty rotation…gorzolanny is very capable if he can stay healthy and keep benefitting from Maddux’s tutelage.

Wasn’t there some talk of making James Russell into a starter? And Marshall gets mentioned, tho he’s too valuable in relief for now. Do we have any other lefty rotation candidates in system?

by QuincyCub on Dec 9, 2010 8:32 AM CST reply actions  

I think the Cubs acquiring a 15-game winner qualifies as "big news."

I understand your hesitancy to have all righties in the rotation. But Garza’s pretty freaking good. Whether you disagree with the move, it’s a fairly big deal.

Now, I’m not saying the move will necessarily be a good one. It really depends on what we send in exchange.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 8:39 AM CST up reply actions  

much as I'd like a lefty in the rotation..

… Matt Garza is a guy who has the stuff to be an impact part of the Cubs rotation five years from now. Gorzelanny… not so much.

by dmlichte on Dec 9, 2010 9:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Cubs lost two players in Triple A phase of draft, according to Carrie:

#cubs lose RHP Ron Morla to #mets and LHP Casey Lambert to #orioles in AAA phase Rule 5 Draft

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:36 AM CST reply actions  

So it is still going on ...

Is Marquez Smith safe yet? I don’t really know how Rule 5 works …

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 8:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes, apparently he is.

I believe the draft is now over.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 8:45 AM CST up reply actions  

Glad we held onto Smith

Hopefully he gets a shot in S/T to make the club as a back-up.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 8:39 AM CST reply actions  

Garza could easily follow in Lilly's footsteps.

Lilly in 2006 (with Toronto): 15-13, 4.31 ERA, 1.431 WHIP.

Garza in 2010 (with TB): 15-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.251 WHIP

If you’ll recall, the Cubs were bashed for the Lilly signing because they gave $40 million to a career-.500 pitcher. But Lilly improved dramatically after coming to the NL (as we all know).

Garza (who is 3 1/2 years younger than Lilly was in 2007), has better career numbers than Lilly had then, though he is a career-.500 pitcher.

As Al said yesterday, it make sense to make a big effort to get Garza. Worst case scenario, he’s a cheap, arb-eligible pitcher. Best case …

BTW, this might be the perfect opportunity to trade high on Colvin.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 9:51 AM CST reply actions  

I don't understand

how anyone could be against this, unless they gave up someone with future Ace/all-star potential. Garza is a great 2/mediocre 1, and is cost-controlled for several more years. Unless they are giving up someone with a significantly higher ceiling than Garza’s, then it’s a great trade.

It’s not easy to get a starter from the AL east with a 1.25 WHIP in his prime who is cost-controlled.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Dec 9, 2010 9:56 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't understand ...

why anyone wouldn’t be very excited about this. The “meh” response by many BCBers doesn’t make any sense.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 10:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Now, I could see people ...

being ‘meh’ on the trade if the Cubs end up giving away too much. But before we know what that is …

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 10:06 AM CST up reply actions  

And if

the “other BCBers” is in reference to me in the other thread, that is the question.

As I tried to state as clearly as I can… I have no opposition to acquisition of Garza in a vacuum. However, I don’t want to deal one of our top 3 or 4 pitching prospects and/or BJax or Lee in the deal. Anyone else?? Have at it.

The Garza-Lilly comparisons are forced.

Could Garza come here and be really, really good? Gosh I hope so. But if you look at all his numbers, consider that he plays with one of the best defenses in a pitcher’s park, is widely known to have temper issues (I’m sure Z would be a calming influence), and is statistically more comparable to Randy Wells (think we’d be salivating at the idea of acquiring someone else’s Randy Wells?)… there’s just more to consider.

IMO, people are getting caught up in his win total and his no-no. He’s a good, solid pitcher. He would be useful to the Cubs in 2011 and going forward. But he’s not a #2 starter… he’s a #3.

For me, it is 90% about the cost in prospects and 10% scratching my head about payroll (he should make about $5M this year, which I have to believe is the rest of our available budget, which means no viable upgrade to the bullpen… which means Cashner, maybe our best pitching prospect… stays in the pen). If our top 7-8 prospects are off limits? Thumbs up. Get it done.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Dec 9, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I wasn't actually referring to you, fsu.

There were some “no big deal” comments in this thread about Garza.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 11:00 AM CST up reply actions  

Sorry

My blood is already boiling this morning for non-BCB matters. So I’m filled with a little extra fire.

I’m just getting a little frustrated at the “Garza will save us because he’s moving from the AL East to the NL Central” movement.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Dec 9, 2010 11:05 AM CST up reply actions  

No worries.

You, per usual, made some interesting, well-conceived points. I wasn’t upset.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 12:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I wasn't referring to you specifically

but I think the fact that he’s put up a whip in the 1.2s in the al east makes him a more attractive option than randy wells, who put up a 1.4 whip in the nl central next year.

i don’t want to argue with you about it, and i don’t want to give up brett jackson.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Dec 9, 2010 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

That's fine.

And, as I noted elsewhere, I don’t doubt that Garza would gain based on moving divisions.

My contention is that he would have a far worse defense behind him and would go from a home park that is the most pitcher-friendly in baseball based on run factor to the one that is third highest in run factor.

So, my point is that I believe any gain Garza gets from switching divisions is more than swallowed up by having a worse defense and more hitter friendly park.

I’ve used Wells as a comparison point not because I think Wells actually is better or has more upside… but to show that Garza isn’t quite as good as some are projecting.

We certainly agree on BJax.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Dec 9, 2010 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Have you actually seen him pitch? In person?

From a purely “stuff” standpoint, he’s far and away better than Wells, and can likely improve. In fact, his stuff would be best in our rotation other than Z’s IMO. Good fastball and slider, will pound the the strike-zone, very similar to Dempster, but with a better FB.

"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella

by tripdenten on Dec 9, 2010 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Not in person, but I have seen Garza pitch a number of times.

And I do not question his stuff… and as I just noted above, I do not believe Wells is a better pitcher or could make the improvements Garza could. The point of the Wells comparison is that Garza is not quite as good as everyone thinks.

As far as “pounding the zone”… he averaged fewer K/9 than Wells last year, though Garza had a slight edge in BB/9. Garza also had 1.23 HR/9… pitching in a great pitcher’s park. That would not improve coming to Wrigley.

Wells also had far better FIP & xFIP numbers last year.

Again… I am not opposed to Garza, pending the cost. Perhaps my main point in “detracting” is to just temper some of the enthusiasm so posters stop thinking he’s more than he is.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Dec 9, 2010 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes, actually.

Maddux had arguably the best movement on his pitches of any pitcher of his generation. He had terrific stuff! That is how Maddux got by, he couldn’t overpower people, he got by on movement and location.

"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella

by tripdenten on Dec 10, 2010 5:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I am still not buying the Randy Wells comparison

Garza’s fielding-independent statistics are right-in-line with Wells and he pitches against much tougher competition. I could easily see him being a 3.50 FIP pitcher in the NL Central.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 1:50 PM CST up reply actions  

FIP doesn't take park factor into play, that I'm aware of.

Garza pitches half his games in the best pitcher’s park in the big leagues. Wells, the third worst.

And… again… Garza is better, Wells is comparable.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Dec 9, 2010 5:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Park does matter a bit for FIP

FIP only includes HR, BB and Ks. It is easier to hit Hrs in some parks rather than others, but park has less of an impact on FIP than it does on ERA. If you want to take park completely out of the equation look at xFIP.

Wells
2009 xFIP 4.24
2010 xFIP 4.09

Garza
2009 xFIP 4.21
2010 XFIP 4.51

If you shave 0.50 off Garza based on league adjustment, there still isn’t that huge of a difference. Admittedly based on statistics there isn’t that much of a difference between Garza and Wells. I guess it comes down to the fact that Wells throws 89 and Garza throws 93. I just think Garza has a better arm. But, you are right, there isn’t a huge difference so far in their career between these two. Wells is a very, very solid #4.

I should also note that I am actually a big Randy Wells defender. After every bad or mediocre Wells start there were people saying that he should be demoted to the bullpen or AAA, and I always jumped all over those people, saying they had no idea what they were talking about.

by JSB on Dec 11, 2010 1:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Thanks JSB

I am still figuring out all the “new” stats, so I get them confused. I looked at the formulas and didn’t draw that connection.

Glad you are a supporter of Wells. It baffles me why people think he’s so expendable. I see no reason he can’t be an effective #3-4 starter for several years, particularly at a bargain price.

Shut up Joe Morgan.

by fsuapollo on Dec 11, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions  

"Cost controlled"

I would take some issue with the use of this term. Based on the salaries given to quality players in their Arb years recently (Howard, Felix Rodrigez, Lincecum, Papelbohn) I don’t really see arbitration eligible players as being “cheap” or “cost controlled”.

They are, on the other hand under team control without a long-term commitment which certainly is valuable.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Dec 9, 2010 10:05 AM CST up reply actions  

The term

is accurate. Some people may have a mis-perception of it, but the term is accurate. The player will generally be underpaid relative to the market on a year by year basis, and there is no long-term committment/guaranteed money. It is still very valuable to have cost-controlled players on your roster.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Dec 9, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions  

So if this guy can be so good

why is TB even thinking of dealing him? They’re already in the toughest – soon to be even more tough – division, why weaken your team.

I don’t disagree on his potential in a weak NLC but don’t now understand why TB would want to deal him. They trying to fleece someone? Hey, wait a minute, I think they’re calling: Paging Jim Hendry, paging Jim Hendry, please pick up a white courtesy phone, please.

Just win the next game...!

by blackhawk24 on Dec 9, 2010 10:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Two reasons, I'd guess.

The first is cost-savings. Garza is due to get more through arbitration as a Super 2 player.

The second is that he’s still cheap enough to get a lot in a trade from somebody like the Cubs.

I don’t know a ton about TB’s system. But I’d also wonder whether they have cheaper guys who are ready to come up through the minors, who are being blocked by Garza.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 10:04 AM CST up reply actions  

and they may look at

2011 as a down year with no real shot of true contention so deal him at his peak

by hansman1982 on Dec 9, 2010 11:59 AM CST up reply actions  

They can't afford all their young players

and need to make room for Jeremy Hellickson. I don’t think the Rays are trying to fool anyone.

You could also ask why they just traded their starting SS. That was the same reason, to save money and make room for Reid Brignac.

John Grabow: $4.8 million in 2011.

by rlpete on Dec 9, 2010 10:22 AM CST up reply actions  

Because they're loaded at SP...

…Price, Shields, Niemann, Hellickson and years worth of prospects from last place finishes.

"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella

by tripdenten on Dec 9, 2010 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I will never ever

understand why Patton was taken and kept. The team was supposed to contend that year, and Patton was about as ordinary a prospect as I can remember. If the Cubs had been a small market team, out of contention, and they thought Patton could be a solid middle reliever, then ok. If he had electric stuff and they thought he was worth a gamble, then ok. But we kept a roster spot all year for a guy who didn’t even project to ever be good enough to play for a contender. I just didn’t get it.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Dec 9, 2010 9:53 AM CST reply actions  

It's one of the bigger low-level head-scratchers from the Lou years.

Others:

1) Why did Lou forget about Jake Fox in late 2009?
2) Why did Lou forget about Jeff Baker for much of 2010 (probably the alleged fart-lighting incident)?
3) Why was David Patton kept for all of 2009?
4) Why was Angel Pagan traded?
5) Why was Hendry so high on Aaron Heilman? And don’t say “Notre Dame.”
6) Why did the Cubs think Joey Gathright was better than Felix Pie?
7) Why was Koyie Hill offered arbitration this offseason?
8) Why did Hendry overvalue Aaron Miles so much?
9) Why did Lou seem to really dislike Scott Eyre?

We often focus on the bigger, stupider decisions. But there were a lot of quirky, bad moves between 2007-2010. I know no one individual was behind all of the above list …

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 10:01 AM CST up reply actions   2 recs

None of that happened!!!

The Cubs organization is the class of the NL!!!!!

by TJ11 on Dec 9, 2010 10:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Haha. Come ON TJ ...

even the biggest Kool-Aid drinkers don’t say the Cubs are the “class of the NL.”

Made me chuckle, though.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 10:05 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't know about the Koyie Hill decision.

But almost all of the above — except for the Hendry comments — fall squarely on the back of the manager.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 10:17 AM CST up reply actions  

But we're agreed ...

that Heilman and Miles fall squarely on Hendry.

Also, why do you think Lou was solely responsible for Pagan?

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 10:23 AM CST up reply actions  

I think 6 can be pinned on hendry....

but he knows best!!! Just ask my avatar!!!!

by TJ11 on Dec 9, 2010 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Like others this is shared responsibility

If Lou actually plays Pie, Eyre, Fox, Wuertz etc and shows them any support than
Hendry is not forced to trade/release them for next to nothing. If Hendry is an actual GM he tells Lou to suck it up and use the players he is given as the GM is supposed to construct the roster.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either

by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2010 10:59 AM CST up reply actions  

The reason I mention Wuertz

Is a very telling story posted on a different Cubs blog in 09. Someone was at a Sox A’s game and Wuertz was dong a pre game work out. They managed to get his attention and ask how he liked playing for the A’s over the Cubs and he responded " they let me play"
That said it all for me. Lou simply has never understood or trusted pitchers and it showed.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either

by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2010 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

OK, you're probably right about Pagan.

I heard he wasn’t well liked by most in the organization.

He’s got talent, though. Neither of the minor leaguers the Cubs got in return turned out to be anything.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

He was also coming off a serious injury

That day he was carried off the field still sticks in my mind as one the saddest things
I thought his career was over.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either

by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2010 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

How does the Heilman, Miles and Patton decisions fall on Lou?

If Lou was making all the personnel decisions the last couple years, why was Hendry even on the payroll?

That was a pretty ridiculous statement.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm guessing that Lou had something to do with Patton staying on the roster.

If the manager didn’t want him, why would the GM have kept him?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 2:43 PM CST up reply actions  

One theory:

Lou could be pretty petty. He didn’t like the fact that he was stuck with Patton (and Lieber the year before) so he just let them both rot in the bullpen. I don’t think Lou would have done this with a more high-profile position, but we ARE talking about the 12th man in the bullpen in both cases.

I’m definitely theorizing here. But I’d say you’re also theorizing when you say that Hendry gave too much sway to his managers when it comes to personnel decisions. Sure, Lou wanted to get more left handed, and sure, Dusty made comments about getting faster. But that’s not the same thing as Lou saying, “I want Aaron Miles!” or Dusty saying “I want Freddie Bynum!”

Ultimately, Hendry was Lou’s (and Dusty’s) boss, and he was ultimately in charge of the team’s player/personnel decisions. That’s not letting Lou or Dusty off the hook for some of the stupid decisions over the years. But Hendry has made some whoppers of his own.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 2:58 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Yes, I'm probably theorizing.

But we saw certain types of players come here when Baker was manager (Ordonez, Enrique Wilson, Macias, Goodwin, etc) and then those types of players stopped coming here when Lou took over.

There’s no other explanation for that than the manager asked his GM to get him something different.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Once Dusty left Hendry learned the importance of OBP

Even mentioning it in press conferences. I’m figuring it was someone in the organization other than the manager who got him on that bandwagon.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:18 PM CST up reply actions  

It didn't seem like Lou gave a rat's ass about OBP

His classic comment that he had no idea that Theirot had zero walks one month showed he paid no attention to that. Hendry may have learned the importance, but not enough to force Lou to pay attention as in continuing to bat the player with highest OBP 7th.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either

by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2010 5:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Well someone got Hendry to understand the importance.

Or at least enough to point it out as being valuable in press conferences (and yeah, I’m sure it wasn’t Lou). Of course, this team still hasn’t had a bonafide leadoff hitter in seven years, so I can’t say he fully understands that it’s a big deal.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 5:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure if it was Lou

not caring about OBP or Lou just being totally checked out in general.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Dec 9, 2010 9:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Maybe a little of both, by the time he said that.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 10, 2010 7:54 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think that is really true

The team had a noticeably better approach at the plate in 2007 and 2008 than it ever had under Dusty.

I think that Theriot comment was more of a “jeez, it’s been that long” rather than a “I don’t give a crap that he doesn’t take more pitches” type comment.

Month-by-month statistics are actually pretty meaningless anyways. Arbitrary end-points and all.

by JSB on Dec 11, 2010 1:15 AM CST up reply actions  

Her point about Soto is fair

I am not going to make some case that Lou was a sabermetric or anything like that. He indeed was an old school manager that liked fast (relatively) guys that played the middle infield at the top of the lineup.

But, he was miles ahead of Dusty in this category. I will take any of Lou’s comments before Dusty’s “clogging the bases” comment.

by JSB on Dec 11, 2010 9:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes, I agree with that.

With Lou, it was more ostracizing players he DIDN’T like, such as Scott Eyre.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 4:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow. We are officially in agreement.

That’s exactly right. Lou had a doghouse. Dusty had his favorites — and favorite types of players. Sadly, Dusty’s favorite types of players were often in such low demand (Ordonez, Macias, Neifi) that they could easily be snatched up.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 4:25 PM CST up reply actions  

OK, but when the manager says, "I want X in the worst way"

That doesn’t mean the GM has to acuire that trait or player in the worst way…..

by ClarkFan on Dec 10, 2010 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

That makes no sense

If he wasn’t using him for weeks at a time, why would he have wanted him. The more logical explanation is that Hendry liked his potential for the future.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Exactly.

Hendry played within the Rule 5 confines perfectly, tossing Patton on the DL as soon as he could. To think Patton was Lou’s choice is absolutely absurd.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Again, I ask

… why the GM would keep a player unless the manager wanted him on the staff. To force a manager to take a player he wouldn’t use? What’s the point of that?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 9, 2010 4:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Because Hendry wanted him for the future.

You really think Lou Piniella, of all people, was begging for a guy who had never pitched above single A before, and then gladly left him to rot in the pen?

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Doesn't really matter.

They’re both to blame. Either one of them (or both of them) could have cut ties with Patton in 2009 without risking anything.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

It's a petty, passive-agressive way, though.

That’s assuming Lou didn’t unsuccessfully ask for Patton’s release. So we’re either left with a GM who didn’t listen to his GM or a GM who mistakenly evaluated Patton as being SO talented that he should eat a valuable roster spot for most of a season.

As for Patton’s talent, it’s not like the guy was on the team in 2010.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 4:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't really see it that way

Would you expect Lou to use him if he thought he sucked? I actually give credit to Lou for refusing to use him, even though he was in the bullpen.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 4:33 PM CST up reply actions  

If he thought he sucked ...

then Lou should have told Hendry to drop him, right?

I see what you’re saying if Hendry didn’t listen to Lou, though. But I gotta believe Lou could have given Patton more garbage innings than he got. Maybe I’m wrong …

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

If you were the GM

And your manager didn’t use a pitcher for over two weeks, wouldn’t you dump the guy?

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, not just for the two-week respite.

But, generally, Hendry could have decided to drop the guy after months of incredibly sparse use.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 4:38 PM CST up reply actions  

I mean, it would only seem logical.

Lou clearly didn’t want him, or else he would’ve used him. Didn’t take the team long to dump Gathright, for instance.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure, it was petty in some ways.

I mean, that was Lou. But at the same time, to use one of this site’s favorite Piniellaisms, “what do you want him to do?” Use a crappy pitcher every few days that clearly has no business being in the bigs? Or limit the damage and let him rot? Piniella doesn’t have the power to make roster decisions. That’s Hendry’s job.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

But Lou's gotta have input.

Even if it’s arguable how much he actually had.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

For all we know, maybe

Rothschild really liked the guy. When it came to pitchers, Lou usually did what he asked. Lou mentioned at one point that he was considering going to an 11 man staff, but Larry said no to that.

Either way, if the team wanted Patton, they should’ve just sent whatever team he was originally on a prospect and the demoted him to the minors.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:43 PM CST up reply actions  

That was always my understanding

I always thought that the GM was in charge of picking who was on the roster and the manager was in charge of deciding who played on a daily basis.

Apparently since Hendry has been in charge the managers have completely dictated who stayed/went and the GM’s only role was in negotiation of contracts and trades.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 4:37 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I don't care if Lou did/didn't want certain players on the roster

In the chain of accountability, Hendry is responsible for who is on the roster, and Lou is responsible for how they are used on a day-to-day basis.

If Hendry was allowing Lou to dictate to him who should/shouldn’t be on the roster, that doesn’t release him from accountability for those decisions.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 4:42 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Yup, exactly.

And a lot of the guys Lou wanted (Ibanez, Cameron, Crisp) didn’t even end up on the team. I think Lou’s input has been way overblown around here.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Nagel said Lou wanted Ibanez, not Milton

And I know in the media he gushed about Cameron when they were in need of a CF.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:47 PM CST up reply actions  

I think we just explained that

Hendry apparently liked Patton enough to pick him in the Rule 5 draft. You can’t possibly put THAT on Lou. Apparently he also liked him enough to try to keep him, even though Lou didn’t ever use him.

Seems pretty straight-forward to me.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Apparently Hendy only is responsible for the good moves

All the bad moves were either on McDonough or Lou/Dusty.

by JSB on Dec 9, 2010 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

And moving forward, we can blame the Ricketts.

The excuse making for Hendry by some around here is way over the top.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions  

The trouble is ...

that a lot of people around here have Hendry-bashing fatigue.

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 4:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Which I understand.

But I think it’s better to ignore the bashing than to come up with absurd excuses for the guy and hold everyone else accountable for his mistakes.

by shoemile on Dec 9, 2010 4:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Garza equal bullpen help

I understand why people would be skeptical of Garza due to his underlining stats. I was kinda shocked when I looked at them it certainly doesnt add up to his reputation. But one thing jumped out at me is innings. To throw over 200 innings 2 season in a row in the AL East facing a DH is an accomplishment. You’d hope that he would have a chance at 210-215 in the NL. That would give us four pitchers with a decent chance at 200 innings (wells, z, dempster). And that would help the bullpen more than any signing. A fresh bullpen usually equals a good bullpen.

 He’s also should have some projection left in him because his stuff is definitely not average like his underlying stats.

by thezonk on Dec 9, 2010 11:27 AM CST reply actions  

He also goes deep into games,

3 complete games just last season and a shut-out. One thing the Cubs starters have not done over the past few years is complete games, although in the grand scheme of things, I’m not sure how important that is. Although guys like Carpenter, Wainwright, Halladay, Gallardo seem to do it.

"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella

by tripdenten on Dec 9, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm guessing that's reflected in Garza's low WHIP.

Dempster and Z both walk more guys, which means they don’t go deeper in games. One reason to be optimistic about Garza is that he has a lower WHIP even though he’s pitching in the AL East.

However, Sullivan is reporting that Garza will most likely be back with TB.

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/12/webb-could-be-cubs-next-addition.html

by elgato on Dec 9, 2010 1:04 PM CST up reply actions  

You're selling him short

The “Shut out” was a no-hitter, remember?

That was also his highest pitch count of the season: 120.

by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2010 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Thank you for pointing that out,

I forgot that one amidst all of the other no-hitters and perfect games from this past season.

"You've got to get your damn shirts rolled up and go out and kick somebody's ass. That's what you've got to do. Period." -- Lou Piniella

by tripdenten on Dec 9, 2010 2:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Could Pena produce Adam Dunn HR #s at Wrigley?

As, I now have to move forward and accept a deal I didn’t want to happen…. I’m realizing the Cubs haven’t had a real left handed HR hitter for any extensive period of time since Billy Williams. And, when you think of what Pena has done at the plate over the last 4 years, Adam Dunn comes to mind.

Dunn always crushes the ball at Wrigley, and has hit 25 career HRs here in 66 games. That’s the 3rd highest ballpark total on his list behind, Great American Ball Park, and Nationals Ball Park, where he’s played all of his home games. Playing a full season of home games at Wrigley, Dunn would mash 30 HRs at home.

Is it crazy to think Pena could produce similar numbers? Plus, he’s a gold glove first basemen.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)

by SackMan on Dec 9, 2010 12:28 PM CST reply actions  

the problem with Dunn

is he got an ok AL contract – no way the Cubs should ever even think about offering him 4 years $56 million unless the DH was coming here in the next 2 years

by hansman1982 on Dec 9, 2010 12:51 PM CST up reply actions  

This post was about Pena hitting HRs at Wrigley...

Not about Dunn’s contract.

"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)

Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)

by SackMan on Dec 9, 2010 4:01 PM CST up reply actions  

What is the point of the Rule 5 Draft?

Is it something from a bygone era that just refuses to die or does it have actual value

by hansman1982 on Dec 9, 2010 12:49 PM CST reply actions  

I would imaginge the theory

is that it prevents teams from hiding talent under their mattress. It forces organizations to make Roster decisions to protect players and gives players a way out if they are not protected. Without it….your whole minor league system could be a security blanket for your top talent and thus making the 40 man roster pretty useless.

"All I want is food and creative love" - Rusted Root

by TheRiot Police on Dec 9, 2010 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes

It is a relic of the era before Free Agency, but the point is to prevent minor leaguers from getting stuck in an organization that has no room for them. The most famous example of this was Roberto Clemente, who the Dodgers had but had no room for with Amoros, Snider and Furillo in the outfield. (Admittedly, give the Dodgers another season and they’d have found room for Clemente. They actually tried to hide him by benching him when they thought scouts were watching.)

It still serves the same purpose—allowing minor leaguers to go somewhere they are needed before they reach minor league free agency, by which time they are probably too old to be prospects.

by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2010 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

is it strictly

for guys with minor league contracts or could you in theory put Dome up for sale

by hansman1982 on Dec 9, 2010 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

In theory,

Cubs aare said to be aggressively shopping da fuke

I didn't understand the "white-collar Cub fans", "blue-collar Sox fans" until much later in life. Harry Smith~ "For Cubs Fans Only".

by jeffstorm2 on Dec 9, 2010 4:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I suspect they might even eat

nearly half his contract

I didn't understand the "white-collar Cub fans", "blue-collar Sox fans" until much later in life. Harry Smith~ "For Cubs Fans Only".

by jeffstorm2 on Dec 9, 2010 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

If you're not joking

Placing a player on waivers would serve the same purpose. Of course, no one would eat Fukudome’s contract.

by Josh Timmers on Dec 9, 2010 7:04 PM CST up reply actions  

true

just wondering if you could take Fukudome off the 40 man roster, more or less

by hansman1982 on Dec 9, 2010 7:27 PM CST up reply actions  

You can release him but because he has an NTC clause

you could not trade him without his approval and clearly he would be happily grabbed by any team that could work out a deal with him and the Cubs would eat just over 13 million ( team dealing with him would by league minimum of $410,000). Dome is not THAT bad

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either

by Doggie Stalker on Dec 9, 2010 7:33 PM CST up reply actions  

I was using him as an example

I wont mind if the Cubs keep him but I dont want the Cubs eating more than $7 mil if they trade him

by hansman1982 on Dec 10, 2010 8:57 AM CST up reply actions  

I guess I am confused about the Rule 5 rules. I thought if a player is selected the had to remain on the big league roster all Season, Why Patton was just sitting instead of going to Iowa. but with Parisi & Lahey that clearly wasn’t the case.

13- Warner, 23- Sandberg, 40- Tillman, 11- Walter

by TBru on Dec 9, 2010 9:35 PM CST reply actions  

I believe Lahey was returned.

And I think that Parisi was returned but granted free agency by stl, and then signed a minor league contract with the Cubs.

by Dcr18 on Dec 9, 2010 9:41 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Correct.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 10, 2010 7:55 AM CST up reply actions  

thanks

that cleared that up

13- Warner, 23- Sandberg, 40- Tillman, 11- Walter

by TBru on Dec 11, 2010 12:54 AM CST up reply actions  

So the Cubs take Mason Tobin, they don’t have to give up anything, and then sell him to Texas, sounds like no risk free money. JH should do late night infomercials.

13- Warner, 23- Sandberg, 40- Tillman, 11- Walter

by TBru on Dec 11, 2010 1:24 AM CST reply actions  

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