UPDATED: Projecting 2010 Pitching Cubs v. Cards
by DGU on Feb 15, 2010 10:35 PM CST
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PrintIf you head on over to baseballprojections.com, you can find the CHONE projections for many, many players. CHONE is nice because it's cheap and named after a guy Jim Hendry didn't overpay to get.
| CHC-Name | CHC-IP | CHC-ERA | CHC-RvRep | StL-Name | StL-IP | StL-ERA | StL-RvRep | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter 1 | C. Zambrano | 181 | 4.28 | 29 | A. Wainwright | 181 | 3.53 | 35 |
| Starter 2 | T. Lilly | 173 | 4.21 | 26 | C. Carpenter | 116 | 3.1 | 30 |
| Starter 3 | R. Dempster | 179 | 4.12 | 30 | K. Lohse | 157 | 4.18 | 19 |
| Starter 4 | R. Wells | 153 | 4.53 | 17 | B. Penny | 160 | 4.11 | 22 |
| Starter 5 | T. Gorzelanny | 157 | 4.47 | 21 | R. Hill | 98 | 4.22 | 9 |
| Starter 6 | C. Silva | 107 | 5.05 | 9 | M. Boggs | 149 | 4.53 | 9 |
| Closer | C. Marmol | 70 | 3.34 | 10 | R. Franklin | 66 | 3.68 | 5 |
| Setup | J. Grabow | 63 | 4.29 | 1 | J. Motte | 61 | 3.69 | 5 |
| Setup | A. Guzman | 37 | 3.89 | 3 | D. Reyes | 41 | 3.73 | 3 |
| Middle | S. Marshall | 59 | 3.97 | 4 | K. McClellan | 63 | 3.71 | 4 |
| Middle | J. Gray | 64 | 4.5 | 1 | T. Miller | 42 | 3.64 | 3 |
| Long/Swing | J. Stevens | 61 | 4.13 | 3 | B. Hawksworth | 124 | 4.57 | 8 |
| Total | 1304 | 4.23 | 154 | 1258 | 3.89 | 152 |
First off, note that the Cubs come out ahead on the Runs versus Replacement category but behind in the ERA category. There are two reasons for that. First, that's because CHONE is working a park effect into the ERA projection, but leaving it out of the RvRep. It's easier to pitch at Busch than at Wrigley. Second, RvRep is a counting stat, which means that Ryan Dempster counts for equal value as Chris Carpenter, despite Carpenter's projected ERA being much better, even accounting for park effects. The reason is that CHONE doesn't expect Carpenter to pitch a full season.
So, what do we see here? There's a lot of irony for me that CHONE expects pretty much the same thing for the much-hyped Found Penny and the afterthought of Tom Gorzelanny. Then, in front of those guys, the Cubs front three (Z/Demp/Ted) exceed the Cards' three (Carp/Wwrt/Lohse), mainly on account of the inning expectations. That leaves us comparing Randy Wells to Rich Hill, which is interesting, because CHONE seems awfully optimistic on Rich and fairly pessimistic on Randy. Bill James and Marcel are both more optimistic for Wells.
But let's stick with CHONE, because even with the pessimism on Wells, even with the optimism on Hill, even expecting a Guzman injury, even dinging Marshall's ERA as if he were to continue as a swingman, taking all that into account, the Cubs are keeping pace with the Cards.
But you can see why the Cubs want to add a veteran RH reliever. (On the other hand, you can also see why DCF keeps pushing his anti-Grabowism, since Gaub doesn't project far off from Grabow; so the Cubs will want to make sure they find someone better than what we have.)
UPDATE
Alright, I'm adding Bill James projections for the rotation since there's been some whining about CHONE's projection for Chris Carpenter. I tend to take Bill James' projections less seriously than CHONE's, but the main reason to use him here is that he gives Carp 195 IP and Wainwright 225 IP. Taking the Cubs and Cards rotations on a whole, James gives the Cubs a 1.33 WHIP and a 3.88 ERA, while giving the Cards a 1.31 WHIP and a 3.90 ERA (although I added and divided those myself, so someone may want to check my math). There are some issues here. Penny's projection was made as a Giant, but I think SF's park effect is more pitcher-friendly than StL's. Someone correct me if I'm wrong and a significant adjustment needs to be made. James also doesn't project Rich Hill.
| Pitcher | Age | Team | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zambrano,Carlos | 29 | ChC | 3.60 | 29 | 29 | 180 | 155 | 72 | 15 | 80 | 151 |
| Lilly,Ted | 34 | ChC | 3.76 | 25 | 25 | 170 | 155 | 71 | 24 | 56 | 144 |
| Dempster,Ryan | 33 | ChC | 3.83 | 30 | 30 | 195 | 183 | 83 | 18 | 81 | 167 |
| Wells,Randy | 27 | ChC | 4.16 | 30 | 30 | 188 | 194 | 87 | 20 | 60 | 147 |
| Gorzelanny,Tom | 27 | ChC | 4.11 | 29 | 14 | 81 | 80 | 37 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| Marshall,Sean | 27 | ChC | 4.06 | 51 | 6 | 71 | 70 | 32 | 8 | 27 | 53 |
| 885 | 837 | 382 | 336 | ||||||||
| Penny,Brad | 32 | SF | 4.01 | 29 | 29 | 182 | 191 | 81 | 18 | 57 | 123 |
| Carpenter,Chris | 35 | StL | 2.95 | 28 | 28 | 195 | 169 | 64 | 13 | 42 | 154 |
| Wainwright,Adam | 28 | StL | 3.64 | 34 | 34 | 225 | 222 | 91 | 18 | 66 | 178 |
| Lohse,Kyle | 31 | StL | 4.35 | 24 | 22 | 118 | 128 | 57 | 14 | 36 | 72 |
| Boggs,Mitchell | 26 | StL | 5.40 | 22 | 10 | 75 | 85 | 45 | 7 | 36 | 50 |
| Hawksworth,Blake | 27 | StL | 5.00 | 43 | 0 | 54 | 59 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 38 |
| 849 | 854 | 368 | 257 |
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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thanks!
Wait for it....POUND SAND Without me this board is Al Yellon talking to himself.....................by BLou
Nice post, DGU, rec'd
And concerning Wells, no matter what he does, it’s going to surprise people. For better or worse.
Hill? Tee-hee
Andrew Cashner will pitch more innings than Rich Hill this year, and be better than half the Cardinals pitchers.
Jeff Stevens is behind several other guys on the depth chart, in my book: Caridad, Berg, Parker, Diamond, Samardzija at least. But the stats projected here seem fair for what any of these guys would do in a full season. The question is whether mixing and matching the hot hand might do a little better.
If the Cubs let Silva pitch 100 innings with a 5+ ERA, I’ll be very surprised.
You’ve made me feel much better today, DGU. Thanks for the comparison.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
I agree re: Silva.
Jeff Samardzija could be ahead of Silva and I thought about using his CHONE prediction, but it seemed like CHONE was projecting Jeff as a reliever, so I left him off.
I also agree about Stevens being behind the others, but in this case I went with the better CHONE prediction because Lou won’t let any of those young guys struggle long before re-shuffling the deck. I think we’ll eventually find someone out of this group to hit 4 ERA.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
All of our starters will have ERA's over 4?
That’s hard to believe. Especially since Zambrano and Dempster have both been under 4 the last two years, and Lilly was under last year and just barely over in 2008.
And Rich Hill is going to have a better year than Big Z? Give me a break.
by kanderber on Feb 16, 2010 7:45 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
CHONE regresses pitchers a lot.
You can find more optimistic projections for the Cubs’ pitchers. Maybe later today I’ll put up Bill James’ projections. Anyone have a BP subscription to get PECOTA?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Who do you see as the Cards' 5th starter?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
I don't know
Mitch Boggs? I’m afraid they’re playing hardball with Smoltz over dollars and will eventually sign him.
Mostly I don’t see Hill overcoming shoulder surgery and whatever happened to him mentally. He seems a poor fit to be Duncanized, i.e. turned into a groundball pitcher as well (at least to me).
Interesting idea re: Smoltz
I had been encouraged that the Cards kept saying they weren’t looking for any more pitching, but they do have money to spend, a pitching coach that’s respected, and an opening.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
They liked him and he liked it there
I’m guessing its the dollars. He could be nice for a 5th starter or perhaps that would make Lohse the 5th.
out of options though
He is out of options, so, in order for him to go to AAA he would need to be so bad in ST that he wouldn’t really even be worth sending down. If he is even half way decent, someone would take a flyer on him and offer a roster spot.
Eamus Ursuli!
I doubt anyone would take a flyer on him
If he had a bad Spring Training why would anyone want to waste a roster spot and pay him league minimum. He has not pitched well in a long time. I think the Cardinals could sent him to AAA without worrying about him being claimed.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Feb 17, 2010 8:24 AM CST up reply actions
Interesting Post
I like the depth the Cubs have assembled this year at the back of the rotation. To me, this is the biggest difference, and advantage the Cubs have when comparing the two clubs. While Duncan has resurrected many careers, the Cards really seem to be reaching this year.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
I get it! You mean Chone Figgins!!
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Feb 16, 2010 9:09 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Ah, how appropriate...
…that we’re left to compare Rich Hill to Randy Wells. Both guys excelled with the Cubs in their first full season in the majors and now find themselves with a lot to prove. Rich has done little but crash and burn since, and Randy must stand and fight the dreaded sophomore slump. Given their respective mechanics, repetoires and demeanors, I’ll take Wells every time – and I’m not just sayin’ that because Hill is a Cardinal now.
wells' head is for the most part screwed on right
by jesus christos on Feb 16, 2010 3:57 PM CST up reply actions
I would agree...
…and would add – if Duncan is able to straighten him out, he should recieve the Medal of Valor!!!
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
so....
we come out about even with them projecting just 116 IP for Carpenter and 173 for Lilly? and we’re way behind in runs scored projections?
yikes.
appreciate the research done.
Unfortunately I remain generally pessimistic regarding this season and am instead focusing much of my passion and attention into the development of our younger players this season. I view this as a transition season for the major league team and I’d gladly take a season in which Castro tore up AA-AAA and made a nice September debut along with the rest of the system taking another step forward like last year, if given that as a choice over a 85-87 win season that competes for a division title in a bad division
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 16, 2010 2:30 PM CST reply actions
also appreciate
the shout out
i’m pushing webster’s to officially crown “anti grabowism”
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 16, 2010 2:31 PM CST up reply actions
Just for that I hope he's the best LH reliever in the major leagues this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think we all do
Only problem is that some of us don’t think it very likely.
Like you, I will be rooting for it as well as for every other player picked up I didn’t think was the best fit or the right price.
exactly
i hope he pitches well also
i just don’t believe “hope” is a great long-term plan. I’d prefer to make smart decisions that keep the odds of strong production in our favor. Paying John Grabow 3.75 million does not fit that bill
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 10:08 AM CST up reply actions
You are a smart man
Hence why you are one of the absolute best posters on this board.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Uh oh DGU
BLou loves you. No problem . All you have to do is post one positive thing about the Cubs all season and he will change his mind.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Feb 17, 2010 8:26 AM CST up reply actions
I keep looking for an opening
to get DCF and BLou talking about Felix Pie. That one should be fun. So, I’m being patient, knowing that holding on for the right opening will be worth the wait.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
shhhhhh!
we’ve got such a good thing going
Pie and Murton are the elephants in the room
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
Sabermagicians run amok
Unbelievable. Yesterday there was a clown making the argument that Randy Wells has no more to prove than Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Today we have the geek squad trying to validate their insistence that Carpenter, Wainwright and the Cardinal pitching staff is inferior to the Cub staff.
The Cubs have a looming pitching crisis folks. But hey, if you want to think a 3-4-5 of Wells, Samardizija, Gorzellaney/Silva is plenty good and superior to what the Cardinals can throw there, then there is no helping you.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
why do you have to call someone a clown? who ever that was, was just giving his/her opinion.
baseball.........is Kool Aid the remedy, or the cause of my desire for it
by cooliogirl47 on Feb 16, 2010 7:07 PM CST up reply actions
I was really beginning to like the new you. What the hell happened?
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
you didn't think that
was going to last, did you?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 17, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
Nah. Not at all.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
So. A few things.
You could respond to what’s in this thread, instead of just trying to tie it to another thread.
Then, you might actually talk about who the rest of the Cardinal pitching staff is. Do you really like Boggs and Hawksworth better than Gorzelanny, Marshall, Parisi, and Samardzija?
Then, you might take the injury question of the Cardinals seriously. What do they do if Rich Hill can’t make it and Chris Carpenter is out for two months? Wainwright is a great pitcher, but you only get to pray for mud one day of the week, not 4.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
to be fair
if Randy Wells reverts and Carlos Zambrano is out for two months, wouldn’t we be in the exact same position?
The difference here is THESE PROJECTIONS are projecting Carpenter to essentially miss those two months and we’re still just barely even with them
The projections are ALREADY taking that into account. Meanwhile for Ted Lilly they’re basically projecting him to pitch the same amount as he did last season despite him projected to start the year on the DL
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
Lilly made 27 starts last year.
I wouldn’t think he’ll have a problem doing that — he could miss a month and still do that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
he could
but it would take perfect health from there on out.
The point is: The projection system is already projecting their best starter to miss 2 months and largely perfect health from our rotation and we’re just EVEN with them
The projection system is already baking in a lot of missed time for Carpenter.
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
I agree with your thoughts.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Instead of complaining about the projection system not being pessimistic enough
ask “Why does the projection system expect solid innings from our staff?” (And it’s not perfect health – there’s no one getting 200 IP here.) The reason is that our staff is a good bet for health. Sure, there are questions and potential flags, but that’s called being a major league pitcher. You’re not going to find a staff without questions and potential flags. But CHONE likes our staff to have less of them.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
i know why the projection system does this
I’m not confused by this.
What i’m trying to point out is the simple fact that we’re now relying on Carpenter to miss 2 months in order for the staffs to equate.
Later on in the thread most people are reacting as if a Carpenter injury could push us AHEAD of their staff.
I’m simply saying: “No, that’s not the case, a significant Carpenter injury is ALREADY accounted for and we’re basically even with them”
If Carpenter pitches 180 innings this year there are few scenarios in which our staff can compete with theirs. We NEED a Carpenter injury to be on par
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 2:38 PM CST up reply actions
I look at it differently.
They’re counting on Brad Penny and Rich Hill to be healthy and effective to keep even with us.
Sure, if Carp and Wwright pitch the entire season, they’ll be tough to beat. Of course, if you told me that Harden would pitch the whole season last year, I’d have said the same of us.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
i disagree
they have Hill projected for 98 innings, Penny for 160
Penny has pitched almost 175 innings in 4 of the last 5 years, they’re actually projecting Penny to be less healthy. And while they may be projecting Hill to be effective, its only for 98 innings
meanwhile they hung 157 up on Gorz, a number he’s only topped ONCE in his 6 professional seasons
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 3:20 PM CST up reply actions
In these projections
innings totals of 160 to 180 are about as high as it gets, so 160 says “healthy” to me.
Are you counting Gorz’ minor league innings?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
closest gorz got to 157 in the minors is 148
by jesus christos on Feb 17, 2010 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
Is that in addition to ML IP?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
no
that was between A hickory and A lynchburg in 04
by jesus christos on Feb 17, 2010 8:10 PM CST up reply actions
his numbers in hickory are quite scary as well
2.23 ERA and 106 punchouts in 93 innings
by jesus christos on Feb 17, 2010 8:12 PM CST up reply actions
i added the two DGU....
you can stop searching for loopholes
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 9:09 PM CST up reply actions
And Lilly
is saying that he thinks he’ll be coming back early.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 17, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
they do, but
at least it means he feels good.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 18, 2010 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
no
since the expected return is mid-april, early would be early april.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 18, 2010 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
But the question is
which is more likely – for Wells to revert and Z to be out for 2 months or for Hill to stay as he his and Carp to miss 2 months?
And oddly enough CHONE is betting on Wells reverting while simultaneously taking the bet that Hill pitches well. Is anyone here going to agree with that? Is there a Cards’ fan here who thinks Hill will pitch better than Wells?
So, yes, the projection expects Carp to be out for a bit. Yes, that’s factored in. The next question is – do you really buy the projections for Hill, Boggs, and Hawksworth? Do you buy Penny being healthy and productive?
We’re starting with the projections as a jumping off point for this conversation, not taking the projections as Gospel.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
You can go crazy...
…trying to figure out which direction this thing goes, and no one really knows which direction that will be.
Sure, both teams have risks, upside and downside with several pitchers, but the Cards do have Dave Duncan on their side.
I’m not one to put a lot of value in hitting or pitching coaches, but there is significant evidence that Duncan is a difference maker in his role.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
projecting skill vs. health
is the issue i’m trying to pinpoint here.
It’s one thing to argue the projections of skill (as you do with Wells, Hill, etc). In that case you can have worthy discussion in either direction.
But when the projections project a key player to miss 1/3 of the season and THAT is the primary reason we’re so close in the runs versus replacement metric, I think its worth noting that we’re already assuming a significant injury to the team, which is behind the projections being equal.
There’s not enough tweaking that you could do at the back-end to even things out if you assume Carp is healthy. It’s another 10-15 runs on the Cards side.
This doesn’t even account for the fact the Cubs number is driven higher in the projections by having 50 more projected innings.
but that’s all off-topic and missing the forest for the trees. The point I want to highlight is for us to have an equivalent staff to the Cardinals this year, we need a significant injury to Carpenter
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 2:47 PM CST up reply actions
Again
You keep trying to boil the issue down to one projection. You either take the forest for what it is, or you have to look at every tree (which would be fine with me; it’s just not what you’re doing).
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
its the impact of that one projection
taking Carpenter out for 1/3 of the season is going to have more impact than any haggling you can do on the back-end. I’m happy to haggle over those if you’d like as well, but they’re moot compared to Carpenter. Give Carpenter 1/3 more of his projection and its an extra 10 runs. That’s just 154 innings, which would still project him to miss a month. GIve him 190 innings, we’re talking an extra 20 runs… that’s gigantic.
It’s like a projection system pegging Pujols for just 100 games, and instead of focusing on that you’re arguing whether David Freese will be a .750 OPS guy or an .800 OPS guy
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
But the fact of the matter
is that the system dings Carpenter for a reason.
Again, if you’d told me that Harden would pitch as many innings as he did, I’d have expected that to be worth 20 more runs than it was. Adding innings often costs ERA.
If this was Roy Halladay pegged for only 100 innings, you’d be on to something. But Chris Carpenter is no Roy Halladay – as great as Carp is, when healthy.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
he's also not Rich Harden...
Check out Carpenter’s track record as a pro:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpech01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=carpen001chr
1995: 163 2/3 IP
1996: 171 1/3 IP
1997: 201 1/3 IP
1998: 175 IP
1999: 154 IP
2000: 175 1/3 IP
2001: 215 2/3 IP
2002: 98 IP
2003: 18 2/3 IP
2004: 182 IP
2005: 241 2/3 IP
2006: 221 2/3 IP
2007: 10 1/3 IP
2008: 24 IP
2009: 192 2/3 IP
In 11 of his 15 professional season he’s topped 150 IP, he’s had 4 seasons really cut short by injuries
comparing him to Harden who has accomplished that feet just 3 times in 8 seasons, isn’t fair.
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 4:09 PM CST up reply actions
Instead of arguing around the edges
make the case that Carp is someone you can count on for 180 IP.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
i've pointed out
he averages 155 innings a year in his career and over 65% of the time he tops 170 innings, i don’t know what else i can do….
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
Do you believe the past three years are much more important
in projection than the career?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
its not black and white
for skill level, yes absolutely
for health? Well that depends on the extent of the injuries and how the pitcher finished the previous year.
Carpenter finished the year completely healthy so projecting him to miss half the season seems a bit short-sighted to me. But again, I understand how the projection system works and it largely works off the most recent data and in two of the last 3 years he hasn’t been healthy. I get it.
My point is we’re supposed to celebrate a projection that shows us basically even with the Cardinals despite their best pitcher missing 40% of the season?
Sorry, counting on their best pitcher to get hurt just to keep us close isn’t something that excites me.
Especially when we’ve already looked at the offensive differential and the projections have shown an extremely wide gap
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 18, 2010 8:35 AM CST up reply actions
On the other hand
the offensive projections expect Soriano to play like he’s injured, despite him being our highest paid player. So, let’s throw the offensive projections out because of that. Right?
No. I take the projections for what they are overall. Soriano’s median projection is pessimistic, because there are enough players like him who have fallen off the cliff at this point after a year like last year. Remember, these are median projections, and within the whole set of Sori’s possibilities, there are a lot of bad ones bringing the median down. We may decide to be more or less optimistic/pessimistic on Soriano himself, but in evaluating the team overall, it’s best at the start to step back and take it all in. And if you’re going to adjust the overall picture, you have to adjust everything, not just one player.
I know no one cares about my fantasy team, but let me just say this to give some context for how I view Carp the individual – I traded Derrek Lee for Chris Carpenter, despite having strong pitching and needing RH OBP. I view Carp as one of the 15 most valuable pitchers in the game because of his upside.
But I absolutely will not count on Carpenter for 200 innings. In fact, I expect 25 innings is more likely than 200. That’s what you aren’t talking about as you keep going on about us counting on Carp being out so long. These projections are counting on him being in so long. And 25 innings is more likely than 200. 116 is the median. It’s a fair median projection, in just the same way that repeating Sori’s 2009 #s is a fair median projection for him.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
projecting skill vs. health
Soriano’s SKILLS declined last year, whether you’re directly attributing that to his health is your discretion not the projection systems
you’re saying Soriano is projected to play like he was injured, but you’re making the assumption his injury is what caused the erosion in skill (rather than his age)
his K Rate jumped, his ISO plummeted and both those numbers had been trending in those directions the last few years. Perhaps that “fall off a cliff” 2009 season was exacerbated by injury, but the declining trend has been there.
Now mind you the projection systems are projecting a bounce back. CHONE is projecting his ISO to recover to the low .220’s level, as opposed to the .180 level of last year.
The difference between Carpenter and Soriano though is Soriano “earned” those poor projections through poor performance. Carpenter didn’t really “earn” those poor projections, he just happened to be injured in 2 of the previous 3 years, which is where the data focuses for projecting
As an aside I like how you chose the data point of 200 and 25 to get nearly equal samples (4 vs. 3) to frame your discussion of being “in so long”
As i stated before Carpenter’s AVERAGE year is 155 innings, this projection is projecting him to miss 40 more innings (or approximately) one additional month less of pitching than his AVERAGE year
His MEDIAN innings pitched per season is 175 IP
So yeah I’m talking about the time missed as opposed to the time played because in the overwhelming majority of Carp’s seasons he’s topped the 116 IP projection, in fact in 73% of them he’s topped that number.
When you’re comparing say Soriano’s projection to Carpenter’s, the difference i see is skill vs. health. Carpenter’s skills haven’t eroded at all, the projection system is just punishing him for being hurt 2 of the last 3 years. Soriano’s skills have been in decline and the projection system isn’t punishing him for playing at a hurt level (heck the projection system is projecting a significant increase in his performance over last year (.779 OPS vs. .726 OPS), so I don’t think its a worthwhile comparison
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 18, 2010 10:45 AM CST up reply actions
It's a false dichotomy
to say skills v. health. Health is a skill.
And you’re making too much of years in Carp’s career that are long gone.
If I wanted to project Scott Rolen, should I pay more attention to his career (I mean there was a time you could really count on 150 games from him) or to the most recent years?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Health is a skill?
Since when? Sometimes players get injured through no fault of their own.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
On the other hand.
Didn’t John Smoltz burned his chest while ironing a shirt that he was wearing?
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
It's not a skill in the sense that defensive driving is a skill.
That’s to say that it’s not a skill any player can learn, hone, gain, etc., but then most of the important skills in baseball at the ML level aren’t ones that any player can learn, hone, gain etc.
Sam Fuld can’t add more power to his game. Aramis Ramirez can’t add more speed to his game. Kerry Wood can’t add more health to his game.
Sure, there are fluke injuries, in the same way that there are fluke bloops into LF, but consistent health or consistent DL time is a reflection of the overall strength of a player’s body in the same way that consistent fielding is a reflection of the overall reactions, speed, and control in a player’s body.
Consider this – I had a friend growing up who was always in a cast somewhere in his body, every year. I never broke a bone. He and I fell out of the same trees, sledded down the same hills, got plunked in the same little leagues. He just had weaker bodily constitution.
Chris Carpenter is not just flukily injured. He’s regularly injured. He does not have the same physical health that Andy Pettitte or Greg Maddux does.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Actually, Kerry Wood CAN add more health to his game.
Why can’t he? He’s just gone through two seasons uninjured (except for that blister in 2008, which was completely unrelated to his previous troubles). Who’s to say that he can’t be healthy the rest of his career?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Nobody's to say "can't"
But if we asked who was more likely to be healthy, Mariano Rivera or Kerry Wood, who would you say?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Well, of course, Rivera.
But that doesn’t mean a player can’t go from unhealthy to healthy.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm seriously asking without knowing - not just making a point.
Can you think of a recent example of a player who went from having regular or semi-regular DL visits to 3 straight seasons of full season play?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
how about
some guy named Chris Carpenter… in ‘04-’06?
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
DCF - always ready to argue it both ways.
For the entire rest of this thread he’s argued that Chris Carpenter can’t be classified as “having regular or semi-regular DL visits” but now answers my question about players “having regular or semi-regular DL visits” as if Carp would be an appropriate answer.
Fact of the matter is that Carp didn’t have regular health problems prior to 2002.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
what?
you proposed the question, YOU have referenced Carpenter as an injury risk, not me.
So clearly according to your own categorization he fit there and would fit as the answer.
I’m not arguing that Carpenter is an injury risk. I’m arguing that by YOUR OWN classification, he would meet this standard in the proposed question you brought up
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 3:52 PM CST up reply actions
while we're at it with the hyperbole
feel free to reference any double standards i’ve created in my lines of argument.
I’d be interested in knowing since i pride myself on my consistency.
since i’m “always to ready to argue it both ways”
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 3:54 PM CST up reply actions
how is he REGULARLY injured?
he’s had FOUR seasons out of 15 that he’s thrown less than 150 innings
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 7:47 AM CST up reply actions
Is there an echo in here?
First, you keep ignoring the lost 2003 season, so it’s FIVE.
Second, it’s FOUR out of the last EIGHT and the THIRTY-FIVE year-old Carpenter’s is not more likely to have the health of the first five years of his career than the last three.
We can certainly hope for another three year stretch of health for Carpenter. It’s possible. But CHONE doesn’t have the same hopes as us.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
how did i ignore 2003?
’02
’03
’07
’08
those are the four of the 15, i included the 18 minor league innings in 2003
so its 4 of the last 8 years right? or is it 4 of the last 6?
you’re cherry-picking and having all sorts of endpoint bias to try to make your point
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
This one I'll mea culpa
I thought you were counting his ‘97 season. It’s fair not to count that since it was his rookie season.
On the other hand, I don’t see why it’s not a reasonable end point to use the major surgery in a player’s recent career.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
did he not show in '04, '05 and '06
that he recovered from the injuries in ’02 and ’03?
but regardless, we’re just beating a dead horse here anyway. I don’t think its fair to suggest Carpenter is as injury prone as someone like Rich Harden’s whose shoulder has shown he is not physically capable of going say 175 innings or even 150 innings consistently.
Carpenter’s had 2 periods in his 15 year career where he’s been seriously injured, each period cost him basically two seasons.
Out of a 15 year career to top 150+ innings in 11 of them and averaging 155 innings a year… I don’t think is considered injury prone
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
I'll only say
that I don’t think Carpenter is as injury-risky as Harden. I just think there’s significant risk.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Todd Hollandsworth was regularly flukily injured.
Well, maybe not regularly, but often. And several times in the same spot on his shin.
That’s explainable only by the position of his leg on the follow-through, and the exact reflection of the ball. Did something in Hollandsworth’s swing make him susceptible to that accident? It might also be interesting to see what kind of pitches he fouled into his leg. Were they all the same?
I think these are pretty interesting questions you’re raising here.
"There's more to life than profits...like, you know, slurpees and stuff." ~Randy Marsh
The answer...
…is probably somewhere in the middle.
Guys can get hurt from no fault of their own, but players who have a long track record of injury typically goes beyond bad luck. The chronic injury guys either have poor conditioning habits, bad mechanics, poor genetics or a combination of all three.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Is it a coincidence...
…the two years the Cubs won the division, Carpenter barely pitched?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
heck you could even count '03
although it was a wildcard…
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 18, 2010 1:16 PM CST up reply actions
argh edit...
we did win the division in ’03
guess i remember wild card because the marlins were the wild card, argh
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 18, 2010 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
Halladay, Carpenter, Harden comps
Halladay 1995-2009: 2684 2/3 IP, 179 IP/season
Carpenter 1995-2009: 2331 IP, 155.4 IP/season
Rich Harden 2001-2009: 1108 IP, 123.1 IP/season
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 17, 2010 4:30 PM CST up reply actions
Those projections for 5th starters
usually don’t move the needle much on the W/L column, whether its Hill (I doubt it), Hawksworth, Smoltz or someone like Looper.
If Penny was anywhere else, I’d think so what, and I guess I expect some middling to poor performance, but he’s going into the Duncan Fixit Shop, so I wonder.
I do think the issue of depth
is more important for the Cardinals because of the injury questions I see. It certainly may not be the deciding factor on the season, but because of their lack of trade inventory, I see issues like Hill and Smoltz as adding up.
I won’t be surprised if Penny steps up and out-produces Piniero. I also won’t be surprised if we see the same Penny the Red Sox couldn’t turn around. The Red Sox aren’t a bad organization.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
different leagues....
pitching in Fenway is a lot different than pitching in the NL, it has nothing to do with organizations as it does with quality of opponent.
Penny pitched well with the Giants last year after getting moved out of the AL, he pitched adequately with the Dodgers before that. Smoltz was significantly improved once he got out of the AL East as well
It has nothing to do with the quality of the organizations and everything to do with the difference in league, which is another reason projection systems are optimistic surrounding Hill
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 18, 2010 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
I expect a league effect for Penny.
But others are expecting a Duncan effect, too, and I’m just saying that it’s not like the Marlins, Dodgers, and Red Sox have trouble producing good pitchers.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Good grief
The aforementioned “analysis” shows that Ted Lilly (who will likely start the year on the DL) is going to toss more innings than Chris Carpenter. Nuff said.
Kyle Lohse is a decent 4th or 5th starter type. Brad Penny has tasted solid success in the past, and now is united with Dave Duncan.
Jeff Samardizija? Are you kidding me. The only thing he has done is benefit from huge public relations for being a two-sport star at Notre Dame. To this point he has done jack squat as a professional pitcher. His repetoire is lacking as well.
Tom Gorzelanney? Really? You’re going to hitch your wagon of faith on a Pittsburgh castoff and suggest he is a better option than Brad Penny or even Kyle Lohse.
Carlos Silva? Do you really understand just how ungodly awful he really is?
Parisi? Is that a joke? You’re banking on Parisi to nail down a pitching spot on this team? Is this Kansas City?!?!
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
And might I add the Cubs have NOTHING that approaches the one-two punch of Carpenter-Wainwright
Nothing. Carlos Zambrano is a circus clown who tosses a crapload of innings. That’s about it. Ryan Dempster is crazy like a fox when it comes to image control and media interaction, but that still doesnt’ prevent him from being at max a # 3 type starting pitcher on a decent team.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Ryan Dempster
was the 32nd most valuable pitcher in the majors last year and the 12th most valuable the year before. I just don’t get how why you are so blind on him.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Heavens to mergatroid
Aren’t you the same guy trying via sabermagician trick to severely downgrade Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter?!?
Ryan Dempster is an okay starting pitcher who is ridiculously overpaid in my estimation.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I'm not trying to downgrade Wainwright and Carpenter.
All I’ve said is that Carpenter has injury questions. Do you contest that?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
No
Right now Chris Carpenter is once again healthy. Obviously he has had a checkered past with injuries. But when he is healthy he is a top 5 pitcher in the National League. No ifs, ands or buts. Adam Wainwright woud fall into the category of top 10. That’s IMPRESSIVE no matter how you slice it. And with Dave Duncan pulling the puppet strings in the background and Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny likely rounding out the Cardinal rotation, I’d say they have strength in starting pitching. Distinctly more certainty and strength then the Cubs.
I could care less that the awful Rich Hill is competing for a spot on the Cardinal staff. Every team in baseball has crap competing for pitching spots.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Then why do you make such a big deal of out Gorzelanny, Silva, and Samardizija?
These are the players that will be fighting for our fifth spot. I’d take any of them over Rich Hill, and that is who they currently have slotted for their fifth rotation spot, barring a Smoltz signing (which doesn’t look all that likely right now and isn’t a huge difference anyway). As many have pointed out, Lily should miss a few starts at most before returning from the DL.
If healthy, here’s how I’d rank the 1-4 pitchers for each team:
1. Carpenter
2. Wainwright
moderate dropoff
3. Lily
4. Dempster
5. Zambrano (close call for 4th)
moderate dropoff again
6. Penny
7. Wells (only because he’s a relatively unknown quantity)
8. Lohse
The CHONE projections more or less paint the same picture. Now, if you see, they clearly have the top 2 pitchers. And if it came down to the Cubs or Cards in a 5 game series, I’d take the Cards pitching. However, over the course of the entire season, the 3-5 pitchers pitch as often as the 1-2, and that’s where I think the Cubs nearly close the gap.
I don’t think its unreasonable to hold some hope that if the offense rebounds to something resembling 2008, or if the Cards are less lucky health-wise than the Cubs this year that we could compete or even win the division.
by madcow256 on Feb 16, 2010 9:02 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
You wont' have to worry about "playoff pitching matchups" with the aforementioned names
Good grief.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
If you're going to put quotations in your reply
why don’t you fill those quotations with words I’ve spoken rather than words you put in my mouth just so your argument holds water?
Rec'd
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
recd
but don’t expect a legit reply from him.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 17, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
I don't find his ideas all ridiculous
Like most people, he’s right on some and wrong on others. I’m just looking for a debate rather than bold statements followed by either insults or silence.
"When he is healthy."
I’d agree about Carp being top 5 when healthy, and even considering his injury concerns, I’d put both Carp and Wainwright in the top 15 pitchers in the game. That’s really good.
But just saying Carp’s healthy now doesn’t say anything about him being healthy in 3 months.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Hmmm....
So your fundamental premise is that Chris Carpenter will break down in 2010. Meanwhile the threadbare Cub pitching staff has Ted Lilly starting the year on the DL after surgery. And includes amongst its membership Angel Guzman (who missed significant chunks of four years with 3 major injury issues) and the surgically repaired right arm of Ryan Dempster.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
No one knows who will break down
J.D. Drew, Nick Johnson, and Troy Glaus could all play 162 games while Miguel Tejada, Derek Jeter, and Matt Holliday could end up out for the season. Anything could happen.
But Carpenter gets filed in with the Nick Johnsons for risk.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
now you're casting doubts
on Ryan Dempster’s arm???
He was clearly the best pitcher on the team last year. Holy moley.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 17, 2010 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
I'd give the nod to Lilly
But agreed on the rest.
I think Demp was more consistent, but either way, it’s a problem I’m willing to have.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 17, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions
And....
Show me where the automatic presumption should be that Randy Wells will be fine. I like Randy Wells, but he came out of nowhere in 2009. Baseball history suggests the probability of him holding course his sophmore season is not very good.
He falls into the category of a “prove it” pitcher. In similar fashion to Rich Hill a few years ago. And we all know how that story turned out.
I just don’t get how you can pooh-pooh the Cardinal pitching staff and throw up all sorts of warning flags while out of the other side of your mouth paper over the practical realities of the Cub staff.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
CHONE only sees Wells getting a 4.50 ERA.
That’s the funny thing about this – is that CHONE agrees with a lot of your assumptions, and still sees the Cubs matching the Cards.
The fact is that the Cubs and Cards have different strengths and risks and weaknesses, but set side-by-side, they are neck and neck. CHONE is impartial, and shows YOUR partiality,
throwing up all sorts of warning flags about the Cubs while out of the other side of your mouth papering over the practical realities of the Card staff.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
by DGU on Feb 16, 2010 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
Green'ed.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
I agree...
…that Carpenter is due for one of his 60 day DL stints in 2010.
On the other side of this, Lilly is also a question mark with his shoulder and we have seen shoulder issues creep up on Zambrano as well the last couple of years. Is 2010 going to the year a more significant shoulder problem happens with Zambrano? No one really knows, but I don’t like the fact that he has experienced problems in both 08 and 09.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I agree with that concern
but have tempered that concern with the positive reports on Z’s training this off-season.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
I hope so...
…but with pitchers, shoulder issues are usually cummulative over time. Being in shape (as long as it helps his mechanics) is a good thing, but I don’t think it reduces his injury risk as much as you may think.
The other thing is this; with Z, it’s not only physical health, but you have to hope he is healthy between the ears as well. Over the years, his mental frame of mind has been a big limiting factor for him, and recently, he also has had physical issues added to that.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
These are legit concerns.
How many years, will I keep saying to myself, “This year he’ll pace himself; this year he’ll be more mature”? It seems like too many years, and yet he still hasn’t crossed over into his 30s.
All that said, trying to be objective about it, I like Z’s health better this year than I did last year.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
It's a good sign...
…he had dedicated himself to get in shape this season, and hopefully that helps to keep him healthy and physically capable.
Beyond that, his mental makeup is something that I believe is not going to change. After 7 years in the league, his mental frame of mind is what it is and is highly unlikely to change.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
"Carlos' mental makeup," you say; a picture is worth a 1000 words:
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
The look on Lou's face is priceless.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
that's his
“you can argue with him if you want, I’m just gonna stay over here and watch” look.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 17, 2010 5:34 PM CST up reply actions
that was
a fantastic moment.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 17, 2010 5:33 PM CST up reply actions
Gorzelanny
Jason Schmidt was a Pittsburgh castoff who went on to have a good career with the Giants. I’m not saying Gorzelanny will be as good as Schmidt, just that “Pittsburgh cast-off” doesn’t mean very much to me.
So, yes, Gorzelanny, who looks healthy, who last year was striking out a guy an inning, who had gotten his walk rate back under control, and who had a FIP of 3.91, does indeed look like a better option to me than Brad Penny, who has struggled with health throughout his career, and hasn’t been good when healthy for two years now.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Tom Gorzelanny can be a decent pitcher
His probable highest and best use is as a swingman. In that regard he is shades of Sean Marshall. I actually like the bet on Gorzelanny. But I absolutely DO NOT like considering him anything more than competition for a 5th spot in a rotation with the default position being that he competes for a long relief role.
And no, I do not subscribe to the theory that Pittsburgh management is so clueless and messed up that they unwillingly jettison away good young talent for virtual nothing. Every team in baseball has a Jason Schmidt story. I don’t know why you insist on hunting for pearls on the sidewalk. It’s a bit naive. Schmidt was actually good in Pittsburgh before becoming too pricey for their longer-term tastes.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Who's slotting Gorzelanny to be anything other than a guy fighting for the back end of the rotation spot?
For a few starts he may end up being a virtual #4 while Lily is on the DL. But that doesn’t change the fact that he is fighting to be the Cubs fifth most worthy starter.
How about practical reality
Right now the Cub starting rotation shapes up as Zambrano, Dempster and Wells. That means two open slots until Lilly shows he is healthy ane effective enough to return. Which means Tom Gorzellaney is most definitely the prime candidate to win the 4th spot in the rotation. Which is scary indeed.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Is it not sufficient for you to say "I have my doubts about Lilly coming back as early as Hendry is predicting?"
Nobody here could realistically find a reason to disagree with you if you said that. Instead, you speak about the situation as if you have some sort of inside knowledge and that anyone who is fairly confident Hendry is speaking the truth is an idiot.
“I talked to Mark O’Neil [trainer] lastweek, and he said he is coming along fine,” Hendry said. “If he starts April 15 that will be fine. I don’t see it being anything unless there is some kind of setback that happens in camp. It was a real minor procedure. In fairness to Ted, we’re not going to rush him either. If he’s 95 percent on Opening Day then we will wait until he is 100 percent.” – Jim Hendry
As Al has pointed out, it’s possible we wouldn’t need a fifth starter until a few weeks into the season. Why can’t you simply state you have a different feeling that he’ll only be out that long and leave it at that?
Let me put it into perspective
I’m REALLY not trying to be negative for negative sake. The thing is I look at this 2010 Chicago Cub roster and see a team that is significantly lacking in pitching and flawed offensively.
Sorry, but this pitching staff is amazingly weak. If Randy Wells doesn’t answer the bell and prove he isn’t a fluke, and if Ted Lilly doesn’t come back effective, then God save the queen because this could be a 90 loss ballclub.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Well, I appreciate the effort.
Although I’m not as pessimistic about this year’s team and our playoff chances as you and others may be, I am also not as optimistic as others may be. I understand the realities about this team and our chances. But you always have to have hope.
And to be pretty blunt, it’s only Feb. 16th. Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow. Speculation at this point, is just that. Let’s just wait until the season begins, and watch it and enjoy it as it unfolds.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
And I'd say "amazingly weak" is a gross exaggeration.
As is so often pointed out to you, anyone can make “if X fails then Y” arguments when it comes to a pitching staff – any pitching staff. While I happen to agree with you that the Cards look better on paper overall, I’m still pretty happy with the amount of pitching depth the Cubs are bringing to the table this season.
Ask yourself the following question
If the uniforms were ripped off and you were asked to go to war with either the St. Louis Cardinal roster or the Chicago Cub roster, then who would you pick. I think if there was a way to eliminate fan partiality from a poll of good knowledgeable Cub fans then the results would be overwhelmingly swayed in favor of the Cardinal roster.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I knew it was only a matter of time until a Cardinals fan such as yourself came into here and did this.
Somehow, I’m not surprised.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 16, 2010 10:22 PM CST up reply actions
If I were to put money on it, I would go with the Cardinals to win the division
even with the names on the uniforms. That’s not the point. The point is that the Cards are as close to winning the division this year as the Cubs were this time last year. Some of us see reason to watch the games and root for the Cubs – namely, that an offensive resurgence and some bad luck by the Cards would be sufficient. I don’t think that’s crazy.
How long is the war?
Is it best of 5 or best of 162?
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 16, 2010 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
Lol. I was waiting for that.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
With BLou, it's something of a requirement.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 19, 2010 4:43 PM CST up reply actions
If the uniforms were ripped off
I would pick the guys with the hottest bodies.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Feb 18, 2010 12:35 AM CST up reply actions
LOL...oh yeah
baseball.........is Kool Aid the remedy, or the cause of my desire for it
by cooliogirl47 on Feb 18, 2010 9:03 AM CST up reply actions
if you find the player
with the Golden Thong, you’ll get to tour Wrigley’s Cub Factory with Willy Wrigley, the secretive baseball magnate!
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 18, 2010 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
Good one, Al.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Feb 18, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
DGU and others have convinced themselves that Chris Carpenter is going to be on the DL for a long stretch in 2010
THAT is their fundamental premise for feeling good about the Cub pitching situation relative to the Cardinals. Which is completely and totally assinine.
DGU can scour the four corners of the earth for some sabermagician formula that predicts Carpenter will be hurt and suck in 2010 all he wants. However, at some point sane rationale thought has to enter into the process.
I like DGU. He is a good poster. But geez louise can he go off the deep end on some of these things.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Replace DGU with CHONE
and this post will be more accurate.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
The real problem with CHONE
is that CHONE just sits in the basement and has never bled and sweat on the ballfield.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
you're the one
vehemently defending the projection
CHONE is a mathematical system, it does not speak for itself. It’s simply taking the most recent data and weighing it more heavily. It has no choice in the matter
You have a choice in the matter and are choosing to paint a picture as if the 116 IP projection is HIGH.
Saying things like its more likely he pitches 25 innings than 200
Saying he’s “Regularly” injured
The bottom line is Carpenter pitching just half a season gives the Cardinals an equivalent pitching staff to a fully healthy Cubs unit based on the projections.
That shouldn’t be good news for the Cubs. I’m flabbergasted that you’re painting it as if it should be.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 7:51 AM CST up reply actions
One of these days, you may just see vehemence from me.
In the meantime, support the following:
DGU saying this is “good news for the Cubs.” I’ve reread all my posts here and not found that. Reading, and fair, honest interpretation is also a skill.
After all, I’m the one who posted CHONE on how far behind we are by their projections offensively. Taking these two posts together, (as I intended them to be) it says the Cubs are beind the Cards by CHONE’s reckoning.
I also chose to use CHONE, knowing that it was more pessimistic on Cubs pitchers than Bill James and Marcel. I can’t remember, but I think CHONE was also more pessimistic on Cub hitters.
I also used the CHONE numbers to backup the idea that the Cubs’ bullpen behind Marmol looks weak, and that another pitcher like Grabow wouldn’t be the answer. That’s not good news.
Also, support the following:
DGU saying the 116 IP projection is HIGH. I went back and re-read my posts and I did not say that. I said it was a fair median projection, that Carp could pitch more and that he could also pitch less.
By “regularly” I mean 1 out of 2 seasons for the past 8 years. Is “regularly” an inapporopriate description there? It doesn’t seem so to me.
You are also misinterpreting the data when you say that Carpenter is pitching just half a season but the Cubs are pitching full seasons. Carpenter is projected for 116 in a set where no one here is projected for more than 181. So, CHONE is giving him 65% of the “fully healthy” guys, and at that, there are only two 181 IP pitchers here – one Card and one Cub.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
the entire discussion has been framed
as how this is a positive thing, for example your OP states this:
But let’s stick with CHONE, because even with the pessimism on Wells, even with the optimism on Hill, even expecting a Guzman injury, even dinging Marshall’s ERA as if he were to continue as a swingman, taking all that into account, the Cubs are keeping pace with the Cards.
even with all these negatives, we’re right there!!!!!
That’s the whole tone of all your posts in this thread. Despite this and this and this we’re right there, so if we reverse all the bad things (low projection for Wells, high projection for Hill, etc) we’d be ahead of the Cardinals! The FRAMING of the discussion has all been overt optimism
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
quote-block fail
argh.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
What do you think about...
the James projection that gives CC/AW 123 more innings and has both pitching staffs as nearly equal?
funny you mention it
i actually think they’re a bit more realistic for the Cubs and a bit more pessimistic on the Cardinals back-end
although i’d question using “Staff” since DGU has only posted half the pitching staff for the entire teams and in the CHONE projections their bullpen was about 6 runs better than ours. Plus the LaRussa effect (actually using his relievers to take advantage of splits) should help the Cards staff out-perform their relief pitcher projections a bit on the whole.
My issue isn’t as much with the gap between the Cards and Cubs staffs, its the framing of this entire discussion and then the grouping of Carpenter into an injury-related group he doesn’t deserve to belong in. I don’t enjoy discussions that are framed as:
If this happens (positive thing for Cubs)
If this happens (positive thing for Cubs)
If this happens (positive thing for Cubs)
(ignore all positive things that could happen for Cardinals or negative things that could happen for Cubs)
Then we’re THIS much better
I’ve said most of the offseason I thought we were 6-7 games behind the Cardinals and I’ve suggested much of that difference is on the offensive side. I do think our staffs are similar.
I do think CHONE projections are a bit pessimistic on the front-end performance of our rotation. I do think CHONE is extremely pessimistic on Carp’s playing time projection. I do think we have slightly more depth and resources than the Cardinals (though I hope resources aren’t used to patch work a 85 win team to get to say 87-88).
I just don’t like the way this whole discussion has been framed and I really don’t like the way Carpenter has been lumped into a group like Harden.
If we’re going to discuss any of these projections rationally we should be able to identify areas of weakness and strength on BOTH sides, and ignoring the Carpenter projection of 116 IP isn’t being constructive on both sides (in my opinon)
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 19, 2010 2:58 PM CST up reply actions
A few averages of innings performed/season
CC – 150 knocking off 1st year not a full season
Sheets – 178
Harden – 113 knocking off his 1st year not a full season
I guess you could go either way with the label. People don’t hesitate to refer to Sheets as a walking triage unit though.
by ol Pete on Feb 21, 2010 3:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
CC's # is way off
he’s averaged over 200 innings a year as a major leaguer and including all his minor league data as well, he’s at 178 1/3
Sheets is a good example as well, i’d suggest the difference between Sheets and Carpenter for projecting next year is Sheets is coming right off an injury while Carpenter is coming off of basically a full year of health. Projecting them i’d probably be more conservative with Sheets IP than Carpenters
but yeah he’s another guy that is perceived out of whack with what he is
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 22, 2010 8:19 AM CST up reply actions
Maybe I'm still doing something wrong
I knocked off his first year, because it didn’t have many innings and I assume it wasn’t because of injury but because he was young.
Personally, I’m glad Sheets is in the AL. I’m not as down on the guy as most of the fanbase around here or at least the vocal ones. He hasn’t really had a serious pitching injury till season before last and that was with Yost having him come out at Wrigley after a rain delay and letting him pitch complete games etc. I suppose the tendon sheath in his finger is debatable too, but all in all I bet he’s really good.
oh i see..
you meant CC as in Carpenter
i thought you meant Sabathia… sorry my bad on this one
I had referenced the Carpenter Innings/season #‘s in a previous post in this thread. You’re right on
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 22, 2010 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
you've had some condescending posts in the past
but this one really takes that cake.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 21, 2010 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
Tons of variables...
…in regards to which way this will go, and no projection is really going be the magical answer.
Each club has some key parts, and if either one is missing those parts for an extended period, they will be in trouble.
I will say this, the Cards have a history (IMO) of managing the loss of key players better than the Cubs and I would give that advantage to the Cards. Also, I really don’t like the way both Hendry and Piniella have used injuries as an excuse in the past, which to me sets a bad example.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Great Discussion
I see this discussion was over several days ago but thanks for posting. I enjoyed the projections and the following discussion. As a Cards fan I only have a few things to add:
It appears Kyle McClellan may be getting an early lead on the 5th spot for the Cards rotation. It appears (if you believe the Post-Dispatch) that Duncan and TLR are leaning more on keeping Boggs in the pen where he shined at the end of the season. Boggs has less pitches in his bag but can bring it in the 98mph range. K-Mac doesn’t throw as hard and is possibly more suited in the starting role (which he did through the minors).
I tend to agree with the projection of Carp to miss significant time. I tend to look at his seasons from this point forward as always being a bonus if he’s healthy. Remember he missed over a month last year as well. Also in 07 he was coming off a season where he pitched in the WS and was 3rd in Cy Young voting. He as seemingly fine in the spring then got lit up opening day and missed the next two years more or less. You never know.
Lastly, I wonder with the revelations that Big Z may be moving away from the cutter how that will affect his projections. At least, I thought I read that somewhere…
Hey Ump!
Thanks for the comments.
It will be interesting to see whether Zambrano’s cutter plans actually follow through in the regular season and how they affect his pitching.
Thanks for the updates on how the pitching may get distributed. Part of the problem doing this exercise is that the projection for a reliever’s ERA will be a lot better than if the same pitcher is in the rotation, so I try to stick with the ones the systems are projecting as starters and swingmen.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
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