Ryan Theriot And Cubs Still Headed For Arb Hearing
by Al Yellon on Feb 16, 2010 5:00 PM CST
in Chicago Cubs News
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PrintBased on the info in this Paul Sullivan article, there will be an arbitration hearing in Florida later this week to determine whether Ryan Theriot makes $3.4 million or $2.6 million this season. The date has not yet been determined. On the right sidebar there's a poll asking if you think Theriot will win the arbitration or not.
I've attached a poll to this post asking a somewhat different question.
The Sullivan article doesn't give an exact date, but hints it will be by the end of this week. Cubs position players don't have to report to camp until next Tuesday, although several of them are already there, working with new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, says Bruce Miles.
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I hope they bring film of his pasta diving
and base running gaffes.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
Me too
That “# of games played” stat is going to stick out like a sore thumb. Not that I agree with it being a deciding factor.
"You’re playing a baseball game. You’re not playing Tiddlywinks. There is competition, for God’s sake."— Lou Piniella
From Maury Brown...
… here’s a comp of Theriot with Stephen Drew. Note, this comp is more for service time than performance — Drew is clearly a better hitter than Theriot.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
On salary arb
Remember… In salary arbitration you are comparing players of like service time and position. With Drew matching Theriot in this regard, as well as Drew reaching a settlement contract that is exactly what Theroit is requesting, the comp is very, very important.
How many million should we pay for each double clutch?
And how many million should we pay for his caught “stealing”?
How many throws must a man walk down?
The answer my friend is blowing in the wind…
you can’t get much by that #$%@ ballhawk -- LT
but the team isn't paying him for those things...
their paying him to be a SS and to get on base.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 16, 2010 6:13 PM CST up reply actions
You also could have said...
… “we” aren’t paying him anything. They are going to collect what they collect in ticket revenues and beer sales. The 800K difference between their offer and his demand affects the wallets of just two people: Ryan Theriot, and Tom Ricketts. (Ok, three, assuming his agent/lawyer gets a cut).
But I agree with your other points too.
by Orval Overall on Feb 16, 2010 7:48 PM CST up reply actions
Sign.
And trade.
Theriot could equate to some good releavers and/or some nice prospects to start rebuilding that depleted farm system.
How about no.
We need him at second base in the near future. If things go wrong with Castro-knock on wood- then Theriot is going to be SS for a long time.
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
theriots already limited usefulness plummets the second he starts at second
by jesus christos on Feb 16, 2010 6:45 PM CST up reply actions
I'd rather have Theriot starting at 2B than Fontenot or Baker.
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
I wouldn't
your 2B needs to have powah. Theriot lacks.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 16, 2010 8:03 PM CST up reply actions
What relievers and/or prospects do you think he could bring?
I’m not thinking of any.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I was thinking
Before Scutaro signed, the Red Sox might have an interest in him, short term at least. Thought he could have been part of a trade that would bring Ellsbury. Marshall, Theriot, and maybe Chris Carpenter might have done it
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
consistently settling at the halfway point is a bad idea
ever since MacFail took over in 1995, the Cubs have avoided arbitration, by consistently settling around the halfway point. The problem with this approach is that agents see this, and they ask for extra money. Theriot’s agent could have bid $3.2 mill, but figuring that the Cubs will meet half way, he bids $3.4 mill, assuming he can get his client an extra $100k. Ricketts sees this, and has wised up.
If they weren't simultaneous bids, you might have a point. But they are.
by Orval Overall on Feb 16, 2010 7:49 PM CST up reply actions
Plus
he spelled “mackerel” wrong :-)
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 16, 2010 9:56 PM CST up reply actions
In all seriousness
You’re right – and MacPhail didn’t do everything right, but avoiding arbitration was a good thing – because the process really isn’t good for either party.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 16, 2010 10:03 PM CST up reply actions
you gotta take something away
from the fact that Hendry, the ultimate players’ GM, won’t cut this deal.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 16, 2010 8:03 PM CST up reply actions
$3.4 Mil.
Seems a reasonable price for a guy who stays healthy, plays a decent SS, gets on base, is a good character and effort guy and who’s be underpaid the past 2-3 years.
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by digitalbenjamin on Feb 16, 2010 6:59 PM CST reply actions
Both figures are reasonable
which is why it’s so significant that the Cubs have drawn a line here. It’s surprising given the way they’ve talked about Riot in the past.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
That's a really good point.
I can’t help but wonder if this is Ricketts stepping in and putting his foot down.
Could it be...
…that the first Cub’s player to hit arbitration in a long time be something that is being driven by Rickett’s watching the dough very closely and being willing to stand his ground?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I don't think that's the case
Ricketts is letting Hendry do his job – here’s your budget, stay within it.
And, only because this was published in another thread.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 17, 2010 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
That's my point...
…if you remove Ricketts telling Hendry – “don’t go over this number”, chances are Hendry would have bumped up this offer and avoided the arb hearing as he has in the past.
I would imagine the many arb hearings he avoided in the past caused Hendry to talk ownership into giving him the leeway to do so, and maybe Ricketts has just made it very clear that for the first time in years – there is no leeway.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Interesting point.
And to DGU’s above, is Theriot the line in the sand because the difference between the two numbers is small, AND there are two prospects projecting high at SS to make Theriot less important to the franchise after 2010?
There may be value in showing other players and agents the Cubs will go to arb and fight, but in this case the risk of failure and losing are small.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
Could be...
…but I find it interesting that the Cubs have avoided arbitration for many years and now they are choosing to battle over 800K (probably even less).
The only thing that has changed is Ricketts, so I’m trying to use some common sense in concluding he could be the one holding a hardline and pushing Hendry to arbitration for the first time in many many years.
Considering Hendry has always been a “players GM” and avoided arbitration partially because of this, it is interesting that this has gone out the window for a relatively small case.
I’m not saying this is good or bad, but it could be a clue as to how Ricketts will manage expenditures and also show that Ricketts is not happy with how Hendry has spent money and he needs tighter controls.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
We also have to keep in mind this is an interesting situation.
A player with a few years as as starter under his belt, a high batting average, and valued by a couple of saber measurements (WAR and UZR).
Combine these things with the small dollar differential, SS options coming up next year, and a new owner and the recipe is for FIREWORKS!
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
Bruce Miles seemed to suggest it was the principle of the thing
that the Cubs don’t see Riot as a 3M guy.
I think the #s are small enough here that the budget isn’t the issue – at least not for this year. The Cubs may be hoping that they can hold Riot to be their backup SS/2B in ‘11, that he won’t be too expensive for that, but it may just be the principle of it.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Makes sense...
…but it could be the new variable in the equation driving that principle is Tom Ricketts.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I suspect that leeway or lack thereof....
… may be only for this season. After this year, we should have a better idea of who the Ricketts are as owners.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ah, I see now
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 17, 2010 9:59 PM CST up reply actions
"underpaid the past 2-3 years"
So is EVERY cost controlled player just out of the minors. That is the point of the system – keeping salaries under market value for young players so teams avoid having to play players that have a good one or two years.
I agree that he was paid less than he was worth (by a lot). But our Cubs should not be setting any sort of precedent by trying to pay young players a fair market value, unless you’d rather they functioned as philanthropists rather than a winning ballclub.
what I wanna know
is when Ryan started playing guitar for Julian Casablancas.
Who Cares
As discussed previously, Mr. Ryan Theriot is at the absolute zenith of his major league earning potential right now. Therefore I have zero problem with him looking to maximize his pay.
This time next year Ryan Theriot likely enters the phase of his career where he hops from team to team chasing utility infielder work in competition with the Adam Kennedys and Craig Counsells of the world. Let the man make his pay in 2010. He’s an overachiever who has little business masquerading as an everyday major league shortstop, but bottom line he has earned the job and deserves to be paid in the immediate term.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
agreed
Check out the Video Blog I host: WebSmart TV
by digitalbenjamin on Feb 17, 2010 7:06 AM CST up reply actions
Apparently Levine pointed out today that the Cubs are still interested in Park.
And supposedly, a deal can be made depending on Theriot’s arb. So if Chan Ho Park can do what he did last year as a reliever, we better hope Theriot loses his arb. hearing.
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
Chan Ho Park would be a nice acquisition
Cubs have job openings in that pen. I feel much better brining in somebody like the proven Park as opposed to pissing up a rope on things like Parisi.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
If Lou still wants that vet relief righty, I wouldn't mind bringing him in relatively cheap.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
Just for my knowledge
the arbitrator has to pick between the two exchanged figures right? Or can he go with a figure of his own, based on the evidence presented and what he feels is fair
Arbitrator has two choices
The player’s or the club’s. He can’t pull a number out of his, er, hat. No middle ground in baseball arbitration.
Bitch about Theriot all you want, you could have Rey Quinones out there, a guy who was to busy playing a video game in the clubhouse that he couldn’t be bothered to pinch hit for the Mariners once.
Baseball is too much of a sport to be a business and too much of a business to be a sport.
William Wrigley Jr
by bubbamike the one and only on Feb 17, 2010 1:32 AM CST up reply actions
I've heard several arguments for and against theriot,
but the “Quinones Quandary” is definitely the most irrelevant.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
A really don't understand why they don't just split the difference.
Theriot may not be the most gifted player, but he has done a fairly good job over the last couple seasons, and there is no reason to assume that 2010 will be any different.
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
A really... = I really...
I finally gotta learn to proof read.
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
3.4M really?
Okay for all the Theriot haters out there, I’m trying to understand why anyone is complaining about giving a guy that will play EVERYDAY $3.4M when we gave Nady (who WON’T play everyday) $3M??? Can someone explain that to me?
sorry...
3.3M according to COT’s baseball contracts. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html
so 3.4M for Theroit… I would say is a good deal!!!
And Nady
Will have much more trade value come July 31, should they go that route.
"You’re playing a baseball game. You’re not playing Tiddlywinks. There is competition, for God’s sake."— Lou Piniella
by PacificCub on Feb 17, 2010 9:52 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
As you know, Al, at this point it makes no difference who the better player is
Because it is apples and oranges. Nady was a free agent – he was able to sign with any team he wanted to. Theriot is a FIRST year arb player, a scenerio in which players normally receive around 40% of their fair market value. The whole idea of arbitration is to help keep players under team control for 6 years at a reasonable but fair cost.
To everyone complaining about everyday SS vs. 4th outfielder, it’s not even the same situation.
That's true.
If they really are going to compare him to Stephen Drew, though, the Cubs should win. Drew is a much better player.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
In terms of power, yes
In terms of OBP? No. In terms of defense? Not really.
Now, I think the Cubs will win, anyways, but it’s not a slam dunk saying Drew is much better than Theriot. A better power hitter, sure, but that’s not the only thing to look for in an everyday player. Otherwise, we’d be hailing Adam Dunn as the greatest thing since sliced bread and Dave Kingman’s statue would be right next to Harry Caray’s.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
by NobodySpecial on Feb 17, 2010 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
I think...
…the Cubs will win the hearing.
Also, you still may see an 11th hour settlement below 3 mil.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
In 2007...
… the Cubs settled with Z as they were entering the hearing room. That could happen again.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Could be likely.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Enlighten me to how
Drew is a “much better” player. In a very equal number of AB’s (1896 for Drew to 1866 for Theriot) their numbers basically seem to cancel out.
Clearly Drew is a much better power hitter as indicated by the SLG% of .445 to .369 and has more HR’s, and XBH’s.
But Theriot gets on base at a higher rate .356 compared to .326, has a higher average, doesn’t strike out nearly as much, and takes more walks. Their OPS’s line up as such; .771-Drew and .726-Theriot, different, but a much better player? I disagree
I guess it just comes down to what you value in a shortstop’s offensive abilities. However I didn’t look up any sort of defensive ratings, because frankly, I don’t know which one best represents a player’s ability.
well, who would you rather have at SS for the Cubs?
I’d certainly vote for Drew. I think a BCB poll would be at least 60-40 for Drew. And if somehow you could get honest answers from the 30 GMs, I think at least 20 of them would vote for Drew.
No basis for any of these numbers – just guestimates on my part.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
But how much
of that would be a product of Drew being 4 years younger and a much higher touted prospect coming up compared to Theriot? Since they arrived their accomplishments have been very similar. Who would you rather have B.J. Upton or Shin-Soo Choo(i know different positions)? I would bet that a majority of people would chose Upton(my guess), based primarily on the talk he received coming up. Whereas in actuality Choo is a much better player offensively.
What I’m trying to say is that often players who were once projected studs, but instead have established a sort of mediocrity at the major league level, are still given precedence over players who didn’t have as high predictions. And not that it’s necessarily a bad thing, but I don’t believe it is a reason to ignore the stats.
I’m not the greatest with examples but hopefully you understand what i’m trying to get at.
A few things
First, when projecting a player’s future performance, I think you want to incorporate both scouting reports and stats. If we had gone by ML performance only, we’d have given up on Carlos Quentin and Carlos Gonzalez, to name just two.
Second, when using stats for projections, you want to incorporate minor league stats appropriately. When you look at Theriot’s anemic minor league stats, his 2007 ML stats and 2009 ML stats are in line with that and his 2008 looks like an outlier.
Since, Theriot will be our leadoff hitter, I hope he can find a way to get back to that ‘08 OBP, but when I compare Stephen Drew’s minor league stats, I really don’t even expect Riot to have a significant OBP edge going forward, both will likely land in that .330-.340 range.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
Very true, but in the
case of Carlos Quentin and Carlos Gonzalez neither had come close to establishing themselves in the majors, compared to Drew and Theriot, before having their “breakout” season. Of course your not going to judge a player when they haven’t had a real chance to prove themselves. And I’m not saying that Drew and Theriot have hit their peak at all, just that they are much more established then Quentin or Gonzalez were.
I agree the minor league stats and scouting reports should and do play a very important role in evaluating a player. However eventually you are going to have to recognize what a player is consistently doing in the majors. And in this case, since they both became starters in 2007, Theriot has posted a higher OBP and AVG, year by year, every year.
Sorry haters
But there is no way Theriot loses this thing. He’ll get his money, and Hendry will look foolish by not settling at a slightly lower number. (Or not…I mean, really, this $800k is not what will keep the Cubs from a World Series….)
He’s a solid everyday defensive player who hits for average and gets on base with no injury track record. Perfectly reasonable to pay him, based on players of comparable experience at his position the $3.4 million he is seeking. Heck, I’m a bit surprised he only put forth that little, in a way….
you're not saying he's worth 3.4 with agreeing on that figure, you're saying he's worth 8.5MM
Which if Theriot was a free agent today, he would NOT get 8.5M per year.
The more I look at and think of Theriot
He’s Luis Castillo lite. Half the calories, same [average] taste!
Cubs are taking this to the wire because Jim Hendry is under legitimate budget constraint for the first time
If this was the Jim Hendry of old then Ryan Theriot would already be inked to a $7 million contract for 2010.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
No, he wouldn't.
Under the old Jim Hendry he’d have gotten a two year deal — $4 million for this year and $8 million for 2011.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
biggest non-story of the offseason
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
definitely bigger than the Cubs' reported interest in Kris Benson.
"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts
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