2010 BCB Community Projections: Randy Wells

by Al Yellon on Feb 21, 2010 8:33 AM CST in Community Projections

The performance of Randy Wells this year will go a long way toward telling us how successful the Cubs will be. He wasn't even on the radar a year ago at this time, but wound up winning 12 games, finishing 10th in the NL in ERA (sixth in ERA+), and sixth in Rookie of the Year voting.

Many of you are worried that he'll regress. Last year, I compared Wells several times to Kevin Tapani, a pitcher with a similar style who also took several years to make the major leagues, and like Wells, had his first full major league season at age 26.

In that 1990 season, Tapani wasn't even quite as good as Wells last year, although he was 12-8. His 4.07 ERA was a run higher than Wells', and even in the higher-offense American League, his ERA+ was only 103. Like Wells, Tapani had excellent control (only 29 walks in 159.1 innings), and he finished fifth in the 1990 AL ROY balloting.

What happened the following year? Tapani won 16 games, dropped his ERA more than a full run (2.99), and finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting.

Oh, and his team, the Twins, won the World Series. We'd take that.

Post your projections for Randy Wells' 2010 season after the jump. (The form says Ryan Dempster, but the projections will go into the Randy Wells portion of the spreadsheet.)

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Comments

Go get 'em Randee!

"Look, what do you want me to do?"

by Zeke on Feb 21, 2010 8:45 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

You too Randy!

"Look, what do you want me to do?"

by Zeke on Feb 21, 2010 8:47 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze

by eths on Feb 21, 2010 9:18 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

Yo, Dog, just like last year....be off the hook, Randy

Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team

by carmen_fanzone on Feb 21, 2010 9:22 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

Didn't we already have a Randy picture thread? ANYWAY's.....Randy!

Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.

by Ryno Runner on Feb 21, 2010 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

yes, it is also the all green thread

Randy Wells Reads BCB Thread

newest member of the Austin Variety Show www.austinvarietyshow.com/

by Cubbie-Tim on Feb 21, 2010 10:53 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

its a beautiful thread ;)

baseball.........is Kool Aid the remedy, or the cause of my desire for it

by cooliogirl47 on Feb 21, 2010 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

yes it is

"Fasten those seatbelts"-Pat Hughes

by katie casey on Feb 22, 2010 8:17 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

And quite a yarn was told

"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze

by eths on Feb 22, 2010 11:35 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 3 recs

img fail

"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze

by eths on Feb 22, 2010 11:38 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 3 recs

aww I like that :)

baseball.........is Kool Aid the remedy, or the cause of my desire for it

by cooliogirl47 on Feb 22, 2010 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs

"There's more to life than profits...like, you know, slurpees and stuff." ~Randy Marsh

by Goodie1969 on Feb 21, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

He was TIIGHHTT last year yo

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 21, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

Wells as you noted is a grinder like Tapani

Grinders are difficult to project until they put some years under their belt in that they have to continually improve their game on the margins. Mentally they have to prepare and identify each opponents’ weaknesses and drill those holes, they have to maintain command of all their pitches and get the outs using the defense.

Wells does have the ability to strike out and his BB average keeps down his HR damage.

If he does improve this year he is a real steal for the organization.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Feb 21, 2010 10:52 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

I posted slight improvements

I’m gonna stick to nothing amazing out of anyone, and then I won’t be too disappointed if amazing doesn’t happen.

As long as no one drops out the bottom and everyone improves just a skosh over last year, they’ll run off and hide with the division.

[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."

by NobodySpecial on Feb 21, 2010 10:56 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

#3 in a line of workhorse righthanders from Cards Country,

Randy appears ready to match or exceed the second year accomplishments of downstaters Glen Hobbie and Big Daddy, who won 16 and 14 games respectively as follow-ups to promising rookie years.

Unlike Hobbie, Wells won’t be overworked into a short career and, like Reuschel, he ultimately may become a staff leader. Let’s hope it’s with the Cubs.

"C'mon Freeman, throw the ball somewhere!" Brickhouse, incensed, 5/15/58

"Welcome to Wrigley Field, Mr. Bah-oo-tah!" Brickhouse, rubbing it in, 7/6/60

by ernaga on Feb 21, 2010 11:22 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

I have Wells slotted in for a 15-9 sophomore campaign.

If he maintains his even keel and focus (maybe with a little tutelage from the Doggie), I see no reason why he can’t achieve this.

"There's more to life than profits...like, you know, slurpees and stuff." ~Randy Marsh

by Goodie1969 on Feb 21, 2010 11:28 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

quite optimistic

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Feb 21, 2010 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs

If he can avoid injury

He has a chance to do really well this year. I don’t predict him crashing, but I don’t see him doing any better than he did last year.

"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver

by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 21, 2010 11:32 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

Did you know he reads this blog?

Start Sean Marshall!!

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2010 12:38 PM CST reply actions 3 recs

He does?!

Maybe we should dedicate an entire thread to it and turn it all green!

Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.

by Ryno Runner on Feb 21, 2010 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs

by Al Yellon on Feb 22, 2010 7:32 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

But still it takes three, to dance the Rec-Tango

"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze

by eths on Feb 22, 2010 7:36 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

Yeah

Three is a magic number.

"Fasten those seatbelts"-Pat Hughes

by katie casey on Feb 22, 2010 8:13 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

Randy Wells Needs Glasses?

Sully says Randy needs glasses. Who knew? Maybe we should have Z’s eyes checked…

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/02/cubs-gone-wild-randy-wells-edition.html

"Look, what do you want me to do?"

by Zeke on Feb 22, 2010 11:08 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

I like this part

“I look like a dork, actually,” he said Monday morning at rainy Fitch Park. “I don’t know. We’ll see. I haven’t got my baseball glasses yet. I think I picked out some cool ones — some Ricky Vaughn ‘Wild Thing’ glasses.”

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Feb 22, 2010 11:09 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs