Cub prospects in BA Top 100
- Starlin Castro #16
- Josh Vitters #70
- Brett Jackson #74
- Andrew Cashner #95
- Jay Jackson #98
over 2 years ago
Josh Timmers
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Just out of curiousity
what’s your opinion of this list?
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
Maybe I should be more specific
Do you think these rankings are fair/accurate placement of these players?
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
For the Cubs guys, yes (for the most part)
I would’ve put Jay Jackson ahead of Andrew Cashner, but both were back end top 100 guys, so even if I felt Jackson was a top 85, the difference between 85 and 98 isn’t all that much (heck, this year, the difference between some arms in the 30’s and 40’s and the back of the top 100 isn’t all that much). I would’ve slid Brett Jackson up a bit, perhaps to the 60’s, but I can understand some hesitancy there until he shows it this year.
I haven't studied the whole list yet
and I can’t get through to the BA website, which seems to be overloaded. But the list seems pretty fair. I might quibble about Vitters ranking, but he did struggle in the FSL last year.
But this is definitely the best showing the Cubs system has had in a few years. I’ll have more to say once I can get through to the BA site and study the list.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
overall
it’s about what was expected from BA, relative to the Cubs prospects. There was some outside thought that Hak-ju Lee might sneak in, but keep in mind that Lee was rated by some in BA below Jiovanni Mier. Mildly surprised Jay Jackson sneaked in there, as BA has never been huge on him, with Ben Badler as the main guy pushing. The rest is to be expected – Cashner’s fastball is that good so he was going to get in, and Brett Jackson (my cubs number 2 prospect) has that much ability, with the only question being whether or not he can repeat his hot start.
I’ll say I’m a bit surprised that Castro hit 16, but it isn’t that stunning as Callis had him 12 (but I’m pretty sure Manuel and others had him outside the top 20, so that’s why I was surprised). Not too surprised by vitters ranking – actually, I’ve been debating him over at Sickels and arguing that I would plop him in the 70’s, with plenty of people suggesting that he should fall lower.
I should add
Overall, I don’t have any huge qualms about the list, largely because I respect that rating prospects is a subjective process and also because, with a BA list, you hold certain expectations, as one does with a KG/BP list, or a Keith Law list. I haven’t seen the 80-100 section yet, so maybe there is something there that would be off, but I doubt it.
nvm
I have a big problem with at least one rating. Christian Friedrich, IMO, is too low at 33.
I'll post a link
as soon as I can. I can’t get to the Baseball America site right now—it seems to be overloaded. I got these numbers from someone at Sickels’ site who could get through.
Escobar is closer to the majors
and that counts for something. But I wouldn’t get real upset over whether someone should be at #12 or #16. That’s really dancing on the head of a pin.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions
For those that are curious (it's a free list, but site is crashing)
Baseball America top 100
1 Jason Heyward, of, Braves
2 Stephen Strasburg, rhp, Nationals
3 Mike Stanton, of, Marlins
4 Jesus Montero, c, Yankees
5 Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles
6 Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
7 Buster Posey, c, Giants
8 Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates
9 Neftali Feliz, lhp, Rangers
10 Carlos Santana, c, Indians
11 Dustin Ackley, of/1b/2b, Mariners
12 Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers
13 Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers
14 Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants
15 Domonic Brown, of, Phillies
16 Starlin Castro, ss, Cubs
17 Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers
18 Jeremy Hellickson, lhp, Rays
19 Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
20 Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins
21 Ryan Westmoreland, of, Red Sox
22 Aroldis Chapman, lhp, Reds
23 Tyler Matzek, lhp, Rockies
24 Casey Kelly, lhp, Red Sox
25 Kyle Drabek, lhp, Blue Jays
26 Jacob Turner, lhp, Tigers
27 Brett Wallace, 3b/1b, Blue Jays
28 Chris Carter, of/1b, Athletics
29 Michael Taylor, of, Athletics
30 Michael Saunders, of, Mariners
31 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians
32 Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves
33 Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies
34 Wade Davis, lhp, Rays
35 Matt Moore, lhp, Rays
36 Jarrod Parker, lhp, Diamondbacks
37 Josh Bell, 3b, Orioles
38 Derek Norris, c, Nationals
39 Mike Montgomery, lhp, Royals
40 Aaron Crow, lhp, Royals
41 Jason Castro, c, Astros
42 Tanner Scheppers, lhp, Rangers
43 Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b, Reds
44 Nick Hagadone, lhp, Indians
45 Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds
46 Dee Gordon, ss, Dodgers
47 Casey Crosby, lhp, Tigers
48 Chris Withrow, lhp, Dodgers
49 Zack Wheeler, lhp, Giants
50 Shelby Miller, lhp, Cardinals
51 Julio Teheran, lhp, Braves
52 Grant Green, ss, Athletics
53 Donavan Tate, of, Padres
54 Reid Brignac, ss, Rays
55 Jared Mitchell, of, White Sox
56 Jennry Mejia, lhp, Mets
57 Simon Castro, lhp, Padres
58 Wilson Ramos, c, Twins
59 Brett Lawrie, 2b, Brewers
60 Tyler Flowers, c, White Sox
61 Kyle Gibson, lhp, Twins
62 Ike Davis, 1b, Mets
63 Zach Britton, lhp, Orioles
64 Jason Knapp, lhp, Indians
65 Alex White, lhp, Indians
66 Dan Hudson, lhp, White Sox
67 Tim Beckham, ss, Rays
68 Alex Colome, lhp, Rays
69 Arodys Vizcaino, lhp, Braves
70 Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs
71 Jhoulys Chacin, lhp, Rockies
72 Mike Leake, lhp, Reds
73 Jiovanni Mier, ss, Astros
74 Brett Jackson, of, Cubs
75 Josh Reddick, of, Red Sox
76 Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
77 Fernando Martinez, of, Mets
78 Chad James, lhp, Marlins
79 Tony Sanchez, c, Pirates
80 Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals
81 Travis d’Arnaud, c, Blue Jays
82 Jaff Decker, of, Padres
83 Adam Moore, c, Mariners
84 Hank Conger, c, Angels
85 Mike Trout, of, Angels
86 Austin Romine, c, Yankees
87 Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox
88 Wilmer Flores, ss, Mets
89 Mat Gamel, 3b, Brewers
90 James Darnell, 3b, Padres
91 Jordan Lyles, lhp, Astros
92 Drew Storen, lhp, Nationals
93 Phillippe Aumont, lhp, Phillies
94 Miguel Sano, ss/3b, Twins
95 Andrew Cashner, lhp, Cubs
96 Thomas Neal, of, Giants
97 Peter Bourjos, of, Angels
98 Jay Jackson, lhp, Cubs
99 Jake Arrieta, lhp, Orioles
100 Noel Arguelles, lhp, Royals
link (wait … can’t get onto baseballamerica right now, as I guess folks are storming to check the list)
I'd guess that's because....
… there’s a possibility Strasburg might start the year at Triple-A… and also because Strasburg has not thrown a professional pitch (except in the AFL).
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It's also a Mark Prior thing
Pitchers are much more likely to get injured and have their careers derailed. When a pitcher and a hitter are of similar quality, the hitter is the better prospect.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
probably more due ot the fact that
Strasburg’s a pitcher. That is, an everyday player has a bit more value, and there are always health concerns for pitchers.
I don't have huge issues with it
Everyone knows his secondary offerings are a work in progress. I mean, a guy like Freidrich has a much better arsenal, is a lefty, and is 11 spots below him.
I think it's about right
Honestly, Cubans get massively overpaid—either that or all other prospects are really underpaid.
Tracy Ringolsby had an article on how Cuban ballplayers benefit from an artificial scarcity. So do Japanese players, honestly. I wouldn’t take Chapman’s $30 million as an indication that he’s as good as Strasburg.
I really think BA has him pegged about right. Taking into account that all Cuban players are big crapshoots and that there are some control issues there, I’d rank him where he is.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
Nah
Way too high. He would barely make it into my top 100 mainly due to his inflated walk rate and lack of a secondary pitch.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 23, 2010 11:21 PM CST up reply actions
With five prospects
The Cubs are tied with the Indians for the second most number of prospects on the list. Only Tampa Bay has more. Now this is a bit of quantity over quality, as other than Castro, all of our prospects are near the bottom. But this is still ringing praise for the Cubs system right now.
Right, and further...
… all five of them have a chance to have a significant major league career.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
only one Cardinal that I spot.
Miller at 50th. I am waiting for BLou to explain.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Feb 23, 2010 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
It might have something to do with
all of the Cubs on the list will be unmitigated failures.
Troll FAIL
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 23, 2010 11:23 PM CST up reply actions
The Cardinals system
is very weak right now. They traded a lot away (although in hindsight, their 2009 prospect list was a bit overhyped). It’ll rebound in time, but it’s a bit weak right now. They’ll produce some guys from this year’s current list, in all likelihood, but there’s very few high ceiling guys.
i have said this on other fan sites but i am happy with vitters....
i think he is better than people give him credit for
4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42
This is a key year for Vitters.
He needs to take a big step forward, no matter where he’s playing.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Agreed
This year we’ll find out a lot about Josh.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
Jeez
There’s someone else in the world named Josh. Go figure.
When I was in a parenting class, three of the 20 dads were named Josh.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 4:27 PM CST up reply actions
I figured you were
but I wasn’t sure. But I was born in the 60s and I didn’t know anyone else named Josh. That all changed by the late 70s.
Still, everyone thinks I’m younger than I am.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 10:06 PM CST up reply actions
The team that made me a Cubs fan
The 1977 Chicago Cubs.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 24, 2010 12:48 AM CST up reply actions
Great Representation
I’ve been pleased with the work of Wilkins. I wonder how close Hak-Ju Lee was to making the list.
i'mw aiting for john manuel to respond to that question
on the comment section for the BA Top 100 list (in their prospect blog)
mildly fascinating response in the comments section
Conor Glassey and Jim Callis had Lee in the back half of the their top 100, but John Manuel and Will Lingo didn’t have Lee in the top 150, so he missed out.
i just found it mildly interesting because
i think 150 (or lower) is rather low for a high ceiling shortstop who got off to a good start, is toolsy, and has shown an advanced approach while showing potentially good to plus defense.
That said, I also think top 100, while I would’ve liked to see it and could’ve understood it, may be a tad high for a guy who doesn’t have power, doesn’t project to hit for power without reworking his swing, has some arm strength questions, and in general, is far away and a risk.
Just odd to not have anyone put him say, 100-150, but rather, before or after … at least for me.
There must be something wrong
Pie’s not there.
"That pitch wasn’t down and in, that pitch was down and up." Tim McCarver
by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 23, 2010 3:33 PM CST reply actions
Starlin Castro and Brett Jackson have to log more time before geniune assessment of major league potential can be ascertained
I have no quibble with this list. But I won’t get carried away with Castro just yet. Lets see how he looks in 2010. HOPEFULLY he is the real deal and can be a viable long term solution for the Cubs.
Alcides Escobar ranked only 12th is silly. He is an amazing talent who might just win a Gold Glove his rookie season. And his bat is comign along very nicely as well.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
personally
I think Escobar is outrageously high for an all-glove no-bat SS. He could struggle to hit 250/slug 375 at the major league level (i.e. he could make Theriot look like Babe Ruth.) He’ll definitely have a job longterm, but as a slightly better Andres Blanco. YMMV.
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 23, 2010 6:50 PM CST up reply actions
would add
don’t let his AA stats fool you, Huntsville is a hitters’ park in a hitters’ league
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 23, 2010 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
you were excited
by his 697/722 OPS in two hi-A seasons? and the 701 in the majors? and you think he can maintain a .380 BABIP? please..
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 24, 2010 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
yeah
pushing the slugging thing and ignoring all the positives tells more about you than him. You could make the same argument against lots of SSs throughout the years. And keep talking about his babip because its been high all along. I’m sure advanced analysis says it will end.
Hell, for a plus/plus defender at SS, a 722 OPS is nice.
I think he could have Andrus like value
so I’m not aghast at him at 12.
certainly a possible comp
but Andrus showed significantly more plate discipline in every stop, and was also, of course, 3 years younger at every stop. I think 30-40 is more reasonable for Escobar
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 23, 2010 11:42 PM CST up reply actions
I don't mean to suggest he'll be as valuable as Andrus was last year
just that he could provide … a similar enough skillset of plus defense and enough offense.
only 12th?
Who would you put him over that’s in the top 11? I think he’s a tad overrated at 12, as Castro is at 16. Heck, there’s a dozen more guys below that I would put over Alcides. I like Alcides a lot, but I can’t think of any reason to put him as a top 11 prospect.
Escobar is a special talent
Everything I keep reading about Escobar suggests he WILL hit in the big leagues. To the point that he might rapidly become the 2nd most valuable shortstop in the National League next to Hanley Ramirez. The glove is outstanding, the bat promising. And keep in mind too that Ken Macha is shrewdly penciling Escobar into the #2 hole….behind the speedy Rickie Weeks and ahead of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder….meaning that Escobar is going to see a boatload of fastballs. IF one of these days Rickie Weeks stays healthy, he is prime candidate for breakout player of the year. Weeks has ungodly quick hands with the bat and I think will ultimately be a monster top of the order type hitter. He is Gary Sheffield without the steroids and power in that regard.
If I could have any three players off that top 100 list mentioned above, then Alcides Escobar would be one of my picks. No doubt about it.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Query
Do these books you read pop up? Or have lots of pictures?
“Brewers manager Ken Macha is considering batting his pitcher eighth, with Escobar or possibly Carlos Gomez occupying the No. 9 spot, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.”
So what is it about his bat that tickles your fancy? His 55% GB rate? His unsustainably high BABIP, coupled with an anemic 16% LD rate? His grand total of 18 Home Runs in 2372 ABs? Or does his 121 total walks make you tingle?
One last question, why in holy hell are you waxing poetic about a damn Brewers’ prospect in a a thread concerned with Cubs in the top 100?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 23, 2010 11:33 PM CST up reply actions
You don't know him very well, do you?
Just remember, in BLou World:
All Cubs moves = bad
All moves by other teams = good
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Let's not forget about the chubby he gets for Kenny Williams
by jerry morales rules on Feb 24, 2010 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
Kenny Williams is a genius!
He gave a big bonus to this prospect, and look how much that’s paying off for the White Sox.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 24, 2010 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
He could definitely hit 2nd
He’s had a high babip for a long time. He has gone a month without popping a ball up. He has an exceptional contact rate. He’s been improving at every step.
Are you opposed to saying positive things about players on other teams?
Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Troy Tulowitzki
didn’t die in the offseason, did they?
don’t know where you’ve been reading about Escobar’s hitting; Bill James projects a 288/326/377 line next year. Personally, I think that is very optimistic. He’s never walked a whole lot, has no power, and his one good minor league hitting season (08) also featured a ridiculous .380 BABIP.
we’ll see how long the shrewd Macha keeps him in the 2-spot, if at all. Like I said, he has value no doubt—he looks like he was born to play shortstop, he’s that smooth—but he looks more like a career 7/8 spot guy to me.
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 23, 2010 11:39 PM CST up reply actions
Damn
You beat me to it. You forgot Yuniel Escobar, Rafael Furcal and Steven Drew though.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 23, 2010 11:42 PM CST up reply actions
You have to remember
this is the same person that just recently said that there was really no difference between Carlos Silva and Jon Garland (I think the term was the “caucasian Carlos Silva”).
Thinking that a no-hit SS is one of the top “special” prospects in all of baseball doesn’t surprise me. I wonder what that makes Andres Blanco?
Well...
Not trying to be the wet blanket but while it’s fun to look at the list, don’t forget the list from 2002. Namely…
2. Mark Prior
6. Juan Cruz
40. Hee Seop Choi
45. David Kelton
48. Bobby Hill
68, Nic Jackson
80. Carlos Zambrano
Without Hendry’s heist for Derrek Lee, that list amounted to short-term success for Prior, mild to above average success for Zambrano and mediocre, worse or no major league success at all. Just saying….the list is fun but hardly an exact science.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
Hill
Add Hill’s inclusion in the Ramirez deal as heist-worthy…an oversight.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
Humbling list, isn't it
Juan Cruz was annointed the second coming of Pedro Martinez by a lot of Cub fans. People got WAYYYYYYY carried away with Cruz.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
if you're suggesting Zambrano
is just “mild to above average” production from the farm system…. your expectations are WAY too high
that’s ridiculous
and in general if you count Lee/Ramirez as gains from the list you’re now looking at Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano. That’s incredible production and the bulk of the reason we’ve won 3 division titles since that 2002 list was published.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 23, 2010 9:45 PM CST up reply actions
Well....
That is a disingenous way of looking at things, don’t you think. Fact is Florida was in full payroll meltdown mode when Jim Hendry was able to ship Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee. Because surely Florida had their reservations for Choi at that stage of his professional career. Also, Pittsburgh was in full scale salary purge as well. It was one of that organization’s most idiotic moves of all time to jettison the 23 year old Aramis Ramirez out of concern for his future earning requirements, but still the Cubs got him in a salary purge.
Jim Hendry needs to be held accountable for the depressing results of his farm system. A system he has played at least some hand in since the mid 90’s I might add. The Cubs are so boxed into a corner right now because of excessive and stupid contracts that the current crop of top 100 prospects had better come out roses. Which the law of averages tells you is not likely to happen.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Yet they traded him
just half a season later in a package for Paul LoDuca, who was an all-star at this point. So it’s ridiculous to suggest that Choi didn’t have any value. Choi had a lot of value.
In fact, he had a pretty good season in LA.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 23, 2010 10:13 PM CST up reply actions
But, all things being equal Hee Seop Choi was not by himself going to get you Derrek Lee in a trade
It had a lot to do with salary purge. Under equal economic circumstances it would have taken distinctly more to pry Lee away from Florida.
The grander argument is this….Jim Hendry has an enormous amount riding on 50% of this current top 100 list panning out….and panning out in true quality fashion.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
but he did...
so the GM gets credit for that. It doesn’t matter that YOU think Choi couldn’t be turned into Lee, because he WAS. That was the reality of the situation
Look I’m not the biggest Hendry fan in the world, but you have to give him credit for those trades and turning the pieces of that 2002 farm system into the core of 2 division title teams at the very least. Just like you have to give him some blame for the current bloated budget with aging and deteriorating talents. You can’t have it both ways.
He gets credit for the good and gets blame for the bad.
Even if these were “pure” salary dumps and the Cubs players had ZERO perceived value, Hendry had to compete with other GMs to get those deals done. It’s not like the Marlins and Pirates were doing the Cubs a favor because they liked the Cubs more. Heck these were teams in our league and one in our division. Usually when teams operate in pure salary dump they try to exile the player they’re dumping to the other league so they don’t have to face them as much.
These teams valued these players to some degree. Sure maybe not as a 1-for-1 equivalent as the player they were giving up, but they valued them more than what other teams were offering, and that’s the whole point.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 24, 2010 8:15 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Even Hendry
said he didnt believe that the Cubs should have been ranked that high back then.
So lets give him yet another free pass?!?!
Good grief. Precisely WHEN does Jim Hendry start to be held accountable?!?! He has played in a hand in the farm system for a long time now and the results have been depressing. To go along with wretched perpetual desperation mode of spending in free agency.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
at the same time
BLou gets held accountable for everything he’s said.
Seriously, Ricketts will expect results or people will be replaced.
Uh
3 All-Star appearance, 3 top 5 Cy Young finishes is a “mild to above average success”????
He’s got an ERA+ that puts him in a tie for 43rd in the history of the game. Just having him on the list makes this an A. When you add the two players who were traded for their best two current hitters, there is absolutely no doubt that this list was unquestionably a huge success.
And nobody has even given Cruz his due yet either. He’s had a couple of fantastic years in the pen and he’s only 30 years old. He can be effective for another 6-7 years.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 23, 2010 11:55 PM CST up reply actions
And out of those seven prospects...
… three of them turned into major league success for the Cubs (Z, Choi-for-Lee, and Hill-for-Ramirez). It doesn’t matter that two of them were salary dumps — they COULD have been dumped elsewhere, but the teams involved thought those prospects would help them. They were incorrect.
I’d say the Cubs got good major league production out of those seven. Remember, the farm system isn’t just for producing prospects for the major league team; it’s for producing talent via trading as well.
Nitpick: Juan Cruz is 31, not 30 (born October 15, 1978).
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Back to Subject at Hand
Vitters – incredibly low, he’s still a top 20 prospect for me
Castro – too high, but still top 30
Jackson – about right, if giving out grades, I’d give him an I for incomplete
Cashner – way too low, still think he’s a future ace and should be top 50
J Jackson – about right, maybe 10-12 spots higher
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 23, 2010 11:39 PM CST reply actions
Vitters is too low for me too
Although I wouldn’t make him a top 20 prospect. The issues with his control of the strike zone and his struggles in High-A would put him around 45-50 for me, probably.
I’m good with where Castro is. For a 19 year old to handle AA like he did is just damn impressive.
I’m fine with where Cashner is, although maybe he should be about a dozen places higher. I still have a lot of questions about whether or not he’s a starter. I do believe he can be a top tier closer, however.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 24, 2010 1:03 AM CST up reply actions
I can't see Vitters as top 20
I’d go more 40 -50. Maybe in the Crow/Scheppers area.
Cashner might be a little low but I’d hold off on top 50 until there is a better indication that he can remain a starter.
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