Baseball Prospectus: Cubs Will Finish Below .500
I just saw this on the local news ticker - Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system has the Cubs finishing 80-82, nine games behind STL.
That's up from 77 games predicted a few weeks ago - I suppose that the Nady signing helped?
Anyway, it looks like PECOTA has changed its mind about some of our 2009 underachievers, who they loved last year. This is the lowest predicted finish for a Cubs team that PECOTA has ever had since it started in '03.
over 2 years ago
D98
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PECOTA really liked our 2006 team - and then Lee got hurt.
Still, I’ll never understand how Dusty managed to find 250-odd AB for Neifi, Mabry, and Blanco, and another 150 for Freddie Bynum. (To go with Bynum’s 20 starts, Mabry’s 45 starts, and Neifi’s 50 starts.) Had to keep the starters fresh, I suppose. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
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What were these numbers for the last two years?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I don't like projections like this
Is this where a certain poster gets his information about how many games we’re going to win?
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
quickly looking
one of the most interesting things is the discrepancy between us and STL is mostly on the Runs Allowed side as opposed to the Runs Scored side. Most projection systems we’ve discussed on the site have suggested the offense was well behind the Cards, not the defense
i don’t remember the last two years projections, but i know they were quite high on the Cubs in ’08 and ’09. I want to say something like 89-91 in ’08 and 93-95 in ’09, somewhere around there
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 8:16 AM CST reply actions
delving into the pitching projections
here’s why they think the Cubs are going to struggle this year:
Zambrano – 179 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Dempster – 175 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Wells – 161 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Gorzelanny – 137 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
that’s a ton of base-runners from our starting staff. And the bullpen projections aren’t too flattering either
Marmol – 60 IP, 3.43 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Grabow – 57 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
In total we don’t have a pitcher on the roster with a WHIP projected below 1.28 (Angel Guzman) other than Ted Lilly who is projected to throw 188 IP at a 1.19 WHIP
a whole lot of base-runners this year according to the BP projection and a whopping 684 walks, that’s an 8% increase over last year and almost 100 less walks than our stellar ’08 year
Now most of the added BB’s are coming from the pen, as they actually project 11 fewer walks from our rotation than last season
The scary part…. delving into the projections of the pitching staff sheds little difference from last year in skill, its mostly luck just luck reverting
’09 WHIP – Projected ’10 WHIP
Zambrano – 1.37, 1.37
Dempster – 1.31, 1.31
Lilly – 1.06, 1.19 (career 1.29, ’08 was 1.23)
Wells – 1.28, 1.37 (career minors 1.34, ’08 AAA 1.36)
Gorzelanny – 1.36, 1.38
Marmol – 1.46, 1.37
Grabow – 1.24, 1.42 (career 1.44)
As you’d expect the projection system is making its best guess based on the recent history of these players as well as their body of work. While they may seem dim, its based on the statistical profile each of these players have put together over the last few years and nothing jumps out as off the charts pessimistic.
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 8:34 AM CST reply actions
I don't know what the projected team WHIP is...
… since you didn’t say. But the Cubs team WHIP last year was 1.325 — and that includes some really bad relief pitching. They still had one of the better starting staffs in 2009.
Remember, it’s only a projection. Real life is often different.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
right
but the difference was the Cubs strand rates last year. We had a healthy bit of luck in leaving runners on last year
i just manually did the WHIP projection for the team and it came out to:
1.412
Rotation – 1.35 WHIP
Bullpen/Spot – 1.50 WHIP
We really get hurt by the following projections
Patton – 40 IP, 6.50 ERA, 1.84 WHIP
Silva – 75 IP, 5.93 ERA, 1.57 WHIP
Atkins – 84 IP, 5.31 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
That’s about 13.5% of our total innings, if we take them out we’re down to: 1.38
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions
Patton and Atkins aren't likely to make the team.
Silva may not pitch significant innings. Or, he could improve.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
those would be focusing on the positives
on the negative side, Lilly’s not likely to pitch 189 innings
in general though i think the projections are a bit more negatively skewed on “everyone’s pitching staffs”. For the Cubs I think the hitter projections are pretty fair, they’re expecting DLee to come back to earth a bit, but that to be balanced by a big bounce-back from Soto/Fontenot.
I think we’re 4-5 wins better than the overall team projection, but its not shocking to see 80. Especially when BP is so negative on the back-end of our pitching staff
That’s probably the area we have the biggest chance for improvement (back end of staff). If we get some good years out of guys like Gray, Caridad, Guzman and then get supplemented by a Cashner or Jackson being ready to work out of the pen, the staff could improve quite a bit.
I think the SP projections are fair, though slightly negative. I don’t see Lilly pitching that much, but I also would bet that Zambrano can pull his WHIP back into the mid 1.3’s as opposed to high 1.3’s.
The bottom line with all these projections is they give a reference point, not an end point. The projections aren’t saying the Cubs are an 80 win team and we should not watch the season. They’re saying as currently constructed with these playing time allotments, the Cubs are somewhere between a 77-83 win team. Obviously guys can under-perform or over-perform the projections, but the takeaway should be that this team as currently constructed would need A LOT of things to go right to be a world championship contender
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 10:31 AM CST up reply actions
Ted Lilly missed significant time last year, too...
… and still threw 177 innings. I don’t think 180 or so is an unreasonable expectation for him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
we'll see
i wouldn’t project anyone entering the season with injuries to be at 189 as a median projection…
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
Ted Lilly could pitch 400 innings injured if he wanted to
He just likes to give other guys a chance.
Regression to the mean...
They have all Cubs pitchers that had better than average years regressing toward their career mean. However, they didn’t do quite the same for the pitchers who had poor years. Zambrano’s career WHIP for example, despite last years 1.37, is still just over 1.29 yet they have him holding steady at the higher 1.37.
Perhaps PECOTA projects a decline. I would think about writing off Zambrano’s year as a bad year much like Lilly’s as a career year. PECOTA, on the other hand, appears to only trend toward the mean with players who had a good year.
This is why these projections are often a decent evaluation, but there are clear inconsistencies.
the projections in total
for everyone not just the Cubs, are done as you describe. Because the projections look for median performance, they tend to be a bit pessimistic on players
they have Lincecum for a 2.94 ERA and 1.12 WHIP
Pujols for a 1.020 OPS, when he’s been above 1.100 4 of the last 5 years (good lord he’s amazing)
so for everyone the projections are a bit pessimistic compared to the reality
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 9:35 AM CST up reply actions
Pujols Vs. Ruth
Who wins? I think there are only two men who could ever beat Pujols…Ditka and 900 foot Jesus…
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
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by hansman1982 on Feb 25, 2010 10:49 PM CST up reply actions
I maybe old school..
but I don’t believe in these projections. 1 or 2 of these starting pitchers might pitch better than their career norms.
2010 is OUR year.
Sounds about right to me.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Feb 25, 2010 9:18 AM CST via mobile reply actions
How often are projections right?
That’s why they play the game! I always get caught up in projections myself, but I don’t agree at all with 80-82 record. How are we worse than last year when we won 83?
I asked the question above, no one answered.
What were the win projections by this method in 2007, 2008 and 2009?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
they started it in 2008
the 2009 projection was 95, the 2008 projection i believe was somewhere between 88-91, i don’t remember the exact number
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 10:23 AM CST up reply actions
I think they started in 2003 - see below
For what it’s worth, Nate Silver is generally pretty good at predicting this stuff. (Of course, he sold the system.) PECOTA has been generous in predicting the Cubs over the last decade, and we’ve consistently fallen short lately – especially in 2005 and 2006. And 2009.
They had us for 89 wins in 2008, which was a pretty good estimate – who saw 97 coming?
I’m very skittish about this year’s team – I just see a lot of really, really bad decisions coming home to roost. While anything can happen on the field, teams with $140M payrolls typically don’t look this bad on paper.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
ahhh my bad
for some reason i thought ’08 was the starting point
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
TCR has some earlier PECOTA data
This is from the original projections, that had us at 77 wins:
http://thecubreporter.com/2010/01/28/cubs-pecota-projections
2010: 77 wins
2009: 92 wins (won 83 games), -9
2008: 89 wins (won 97 games), +8
2007: 85 wins (won 85 games), 0
2006: 85 wins (won 66 games), -19
2005: 89 wins (won 79 games), -10
2004: 92 wins (won 89 games), -3
2003: 83 wins (won 88 games), +5
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
So IOW...
… they’ve been right once in seven tries, and often been significantly wrong.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
if right
is as narrowly viewed as the exact number…. then yes
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
Well, what's the point of posting a numerical projection unless that's your position?
Or is it supposed to be a range? Gee, I predict the Cubs will win between 70 and 95 games this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
i posted this above
but yeah its a range and its a range based on how the Cubs are constructed right now and how the PT decisions are estimated as of right now.
Projecting a team to win 81 and them actually win 81 is some % accuracy and some % pure luck. Projecting a team to win say from 77-83 games is placing more emphasis on accuracy and less on luck (hitting the number square)
BP’s projections are “median” projections. There are scenarios out there which they’d run the simulations and the Cubs win 90 games, its just not the most likely scenario.
Assuming any projection system is going to project the exact number of something is holding it to an unreasonable standard. As an example, if I project Soto to hit 30 HR’s this year and he hits 28 was I wrong? I projected a significant increase over his production last year, but I didn’t hit the number exactly
What this projection is saying is the Cubs are mildly worse than last year on paper
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
It is a projection, not a prediction
Like all statistics, the numbers are meant to serve as a guide. It is not an absolute number.
In reality, you are looking at a range, or a standard deviation. In this case, the standard deviation is a little over 5 for the seven numbers. So when the projections for Cubs wins was run, about 70% of the time the Cubs had between 72-82 wins the first time (77 being the average) and 75-85 wins the second time (80 being the average). 95% of the time, they were within two deviations (67-87 for 77 wins, 70-90 wins for 80 wins).
Keep in mind, the standard deviation of 5 is based on a small sample size. A better way of doing this is to include all their projections for all 30 teams.
by JimAnchower on Feb 25, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
I would be curious to see what the rates are of all other teams
Then compare them to the Cubs of the last couple years.
"I cherish this dream I had as a little kid to play baseball,'' Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Feb 25, 2010 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed
They average being off by about 8 wins. So we can expect somewhere between 72 wins and 88 wins if PECOTA hits their average. Big difference between the two.
by Rammy 4 MVP on Feb 25, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
Don't be silly
You’re only looking at one team of 30, and it’s a team with a -19 on the board due to the ridiculousness and injuries of 2006.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
For this one team, yes.
Of course, you’re ignoring all of the other projections for all of the other teams – and they’ve been pretty great over 8 years.
Also, the projections for this one particular team were pretty severely skewed by the 2006 carnage after D-Lee broke his wrist.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Other projections are similarly negative
Chone says 79 or 81 wins, depending on depth chart or starting line-up method.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/optimist2010.htm
Accuscore, which is more of a gambling website, predicts 79-80 wins and a little over 10% chance of the playoffs.
It's funny how the logic works on these boards -
Last year, when the team was performing horribly early on, we heard a constant drumbeat of how the front office could not be blamed b/c it assembled a team with an 92-win preseason PECOTA projection.
In fact, certain posters pointed to the projections as evidence that the team was certain to turn it around as the season went on, and that no changes were required.
Now, when PECOTA says we’re going to win 80, the projections are as useless as throwing darts.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Projections are generally useless
Injuries and the Milton Bradley fiasco certainly hurt the Cubs in 2009. Of course, having ownership in a state of flux did not help anything.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
Projections are useful
but you must understand them and view them in the correct context. If you view them as absolutes, you’re going to find yourself disappointed when it’s invariably wrong. If you view them as guide, they can help you. While one can argue that 2009 had bad injuries and the projections were wrong, the projections were just as wrong with 2008 when many players posted career bests. In reality, the two seasons cancelled each other out.
by JimAnchower on Feb 25, 2010 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
And this is how I'm learning to use projections.
As a guide or, as I like to think about it, as a way to help me shape my expectations for the season. And note the emphasis on “shape” there. That means I’m not taking any of these various projections as gospel, but they are duly noted.
I’d also add that projections can have an “emotional” benefit. If the Cubs outperform these projections, which I think is possible, it will just make the season all the more thrilling. (I seem to recall a number of Cardinals fans taking great pride in their team doing just that last season). And if the Cubs conform to these projections, well, I’ll at least be able to say I was given fair warning.
Jim & D98
I don’t know either of you, and this isn’t personal. But I asked for evidence of the other teams. I’m a newbie at sabermetrics. I’m a hardcore baseball fan and have been learning the intro. You say the projections of the teams have been close in the last few years. What is close? What are what the other teams have done?
Your responses in the last half hour, have been more saying these things below as opposed to telling us why you think that way. If this is a post comparing the pro’s and con’s of sabemetrics then maybe this isn’t a place for a newbie
In fact, certain posters pointed to the projections as evidence that the team was certain to turn it around as the season went on, and that no changes were required.
Now, when PECOTA says we’re going to win 80, the projections are as useless as throwing darts.
Don’t be silly
You’re only looking at one team of 30, and it’s a team with a -19 on the board due to the ridiculousness and injuries of 2006.
"I cherish this dream I had as a little kid to play baseball,'' Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Feb 25, 2010 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
PECOTA does not say we'll win 80 games
It says about 70% of the time, we win 75-85 games as their previous standard deviation is a little over 5 (it’s 5.38 or the square root of 29 to be exact). According to below article, their standard deviation in the past is 6 games, which would be 74-86 wins, which would suggest they have been fairly average when projecting the Cubs.
http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/01/29/what-pecota-says/
by JimAnchower on Feb 25, 2010 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
putting some more numbers to it
the projection of 80 wins, would come with ranges like this
70% of simulations, Cubs win 74-86 games
95% of simulations, Cubs win 68-92 games
This means it would be an extremely unlikely occurrence for this year’s team as currently constructed to win more than 92 games or less than 68 games
and in about 70% of the projections the Cubs aren’t likely to be competing for a wild card either
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
Thank you
So let me see if I understand this. Correct me if I am wrong on any of this.
That gives me a basic idea. That 95% is one that has a really big window so it’s something most teams to could do any given year.
But the 70% has proven over time to right w/ in 5 losses or wins
This is a projection based on numbers from previous seasons.
It can’t account for some things that happen during a season, such as someone having a career year or if the injury bug bites players that have been healthy in the past.
So it does have some value, but for the Cubs to actually finish 80-82 has a + & -5 that us non-math geeks don’t realize when we read that stat.
"I cherish this dream I had as a little kid to play baseball,'' Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Feb 25, 2010 12:45 PM CST up reply actions
More or less
They run their projections thousands of times. For the sake of this, let’s say it’s 1,000. Out of those 1,000 runs, the Cubs won 74-86 games about 700 times (it’s really 682, but let’s not get into that). So in about 300 iterations, the Cubs won > 86 or < 74. In about 950 iterations, the Cubs won between 68 games and 92 games. As before, there were about 50 iterations where they won > 92 or < 68. In a certain number of those iterations (a small number), everyone on the Cubs exceeds expectations and they win 100 games. In a certain number of iterations (again, quite small), no one performs to their expectations and the Cubs win 60 games. But the majority of iterations falls in the 74-86 range.
If someone could, could they delete my post below?
by JimAnchower on Feb 25, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Deleted.
Honestly, although I do believe this has some value, it’s pretty much a mathematical exercise, isn’t it? Rather than something that is valid in the real world?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You could view that way
But really it isn’t all much different than any number of statistics. If you want to put your stock in sabremetrics, that’s fine. If want to go with more traditional statistics, that’s fine too.
I really view these as an assessment of my expectations and assumptions for the Cubs going into this year. To me, I see this as an 84 or 85 win team. Some may disagree with that. That’s fine. But when I see that most baseball projection sites are predicting the Cubs to be a bit lower than that, I see that my expectiations aren’t out the norm. I am still within the standard deviation. I just have a little rosier picture than most. Perhaps I am biased. Perhaps I’ll end of being more accurate.
I would say, if your expectation is that the Cubs will win 95 games, you’ll probably be disappointed. It doesn’t mean you’re wrong, just that you have higher expectations than most others and perhaps you could temper those expectiations. Similarly, if you expect the Cubs to win 65 games (no need to name names), you’ll also probably be wrong (hopefully encouraged).
Of course, only one thing truly matters, the end of season standings. And this will have ZERO effect on that. But this exercise could guide your expectations for the season.
Your points are valid.
But really, what I see above says that the Cubs have almost a 100% chance of winning between 68 and 92 games.
Like I said, I could do that throwing 100 darts at a dartboard. (Well, maybe not, because I suck at dart throwing, but you get the point.)
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
that being said
on the poll on the sidebar, 69% of people on the site are picking the Cubs to win the division
If you are suggesting that 92 is an obvious ceiling for the Cubs, then why are 69% of the people picking the Cubs to win the division?
So I think it is a useful tool in guiding expectations and for those who laugh it off as obvious or not having credence for not nailing the exact number, i think they’re missing the point.
In ’08 they projected the Rays to win 88 games and the o/u in Vegas was 74. The Rays won 97 games. The projection system missed the mark by 9 games, but it got the story right. The Rays were going to be far better than most expected
The reverse can be applied to the Cubs here and those that post on this site. 69% are expecting the Cubs to win the division, yet in reality they might have a 15-20% chance at winning the division and almost all of that comes from a combination of the Cardinals being bad (spurring a weak division) and the Cubs playing above their heads
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 2:34 PM CST up reply actions
I personally think that there is a lot of
spring training hopefulness in that poll
"I cherish this dream I had as a little kid to play baseball,'' Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Feb 25, 2010 2:46 PM CST up reply actions
I'm suggesting no such thing.
You’re trying to prove that the system is right because it happened to get one story — the Rays being better than expected — correct?
Sorry, not buying it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
not at all
what i’m trying to do is show you an example of what YOU would classify as wrong, when most others would classify it as right, depsite not hitting the exact number perfectly
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions
Of the 30 MLB teams,
odds are somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 of them will finish with between 68 and 92 wins. A few will be above, a few will be below. But I don’t think taking two standard deviations is the point of the exercise.
If we take the one standard deviation range, 74-86, I would think about 15 teams are going to be in that range. With this range, about ten the teams from two deviations range fall out. One would expect five above and five below.
What ends up happening is that these projections think the Cubs will be an average team.
Of course, there are many ways to arrive at the answer. It isn’t all that dissimilar to having an expert make picks and an elephant at the zoo make picks. One would expect the expert to pick more correctly since there is, hopefully, some logic to their thinking. But that doesn’t mean the elephant won’t win sometimes.
That is an interesting point.
If we are talking the ESPN talking head for example, I would say an elephant might have as good of a chance. :)
"I cherish this dream I had as a little kid to play baseball,'' Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Feb 25, 2010 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
There's a difference between accuracy and precision.
Because of the huge amount of chaos in baseball, and the degree to which unpredictable events (like injuries or breakout rookies) effects things means you won’t be able to do much better than the projection systems. That’s a question of precision. If you use a time machine to repeat the same season with the same players you’ll get a huge variations in the results of that season.
But there’s also the question of accuracy. If those seasons are played 100,000 times, there will be an average number of wins, and a number of wins that the teams end up with more than any other number of wins. Getting that number right is a question of accuracy, and these projection systems are pretty damn accurate.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions
It is a mathematical exercise that has value in the real world.
You have to think of it this way: the projection is the baseline around which expectations should be built. Sure all they’re really saying is that there’s a good chance the Cubs will finish somewhere within a wide range of wins from the 82-win mark. And yes, you could do that on your own without the number crunching…. And sure, the Cubs could win a LOT more than 82 games and they could win a lot fewer than 82 games.
HOWEVER.
What you aren’t going to be good at doing is getting the accuracy they obtain. And to say “these projections could be wrong” and then throw them out is missing the point. These projections are predicting the most likely single outcome. That’s how you should view them.
The Cubs could win the division. There’s probably something like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance that they do so. But to expect them to win the division is just silly. Everyone has the right to do it, and if it makes them feel better to allow the hope of Spring Training to permeate their souls, that’s their prerogative. But that doesn’t chance how much that expectation is foolhardy.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 4:08 PM CST up reply actions
1 in 4 is probably overly optimistic, now that I think about it more.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 4:12 PM CST up reply actions
Foolhardy, in a mathematical sense.
But why kill everyone’s hope with math before the season starts? What fun is that? What enjoyment of the sport do you get out of that?
I do understand there is value in statistical analysis. This one seems to suck all the fun out of being a baseball fan.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Foolhardy. There is no "sense" to it.
One can have hope in unlikely things. I’ve held foolish hopes before, as well as foolish expectations. One can have these hopes and expectations without being a fool.
And whether or not it sucks the fun out of baseball is a matter of perspective. To me, one of the reasons last year’s team was so disappointing was because I had such high expectations for them. If this year’s team did well (they very well could) then it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch to me, because frankly I’m not expecting much more than a slightly above-average team.
And even if you don’t buy that argument, the reason projections don’t take the fun out of baseball is the same reason you cite above in an argument about their utility. The high variance about these predictions is where the unpredictability – and the fun! – can be found.
I look at it this way: if the Cubs were an equal team to the Cardinals (talent-wise), and found themselves 4 games behind the Cards (and only the Cards) at the end of April… would you expect them to win the division? Of course not. But you might still hope they could do it, and the “fun” of the rest of the year certainly wouldn’t be gone. You’d be foolish to expect them to win, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t hope for it and it doesn’t mean you should stop following the team.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 6:04 PM CST up reply actions
To put it in a little more detail...
play out that end of April scenario a bit more. We might say things like "well, if Soriano gets really hot and recovers from his slow start… or if Lilly comes back healthy… or if a minor leaguer gets the call and contributes… THEN the Cubs can win (or will win) the division!
Well, that’s just where they’re at. If Soriano is healthy and/or if Soto returns to 2008 form and/or a rookie like Cashner comes on strong, then the Cubs have a very good chance at winning the division. But they need more things to go “right” than “wrong” for that to happen. That’s all. There’s not high certainty here… and that’s where the fun lies.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 6:09 PM CST up reply actions
All of what you say is true.
I choose to be the hopeful one — just as you put it, with specific things going right — rather than boil it down to a single number, which as has been pointed out, more often than not, turns out to be incorrect.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's fine...
and maybe I’m being a little to general above. But the way I think these are valuable, even to someone that thinks the Cubs will win the division, is you can look at projected win total, and then at the individual predictions… and see where the projections are off from what you think will happen. Are they underestimating the performance levels of the pitchers? Underestimating the IP for the top of the rotation? Don’t have Soriano where you think he should be?
Etc….
This just gave me an idea, Al. I think I can paste together all the team projections into a team wins projection, according to the BCB community player projections. That would be pretty cool thing to produce, IMO.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 6:23 PM CST up reply actions
I also think BP's specific numbers are too low.
… and think there are a couple reasons for optimism that I haven’t posted here yet, but hope to in the near future.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 6:24 PM CST up reply actions
Basically, I think the Cubs can leverage some of their mediocrity...
at positions like 2B. They have two players there of roughly equal talent. There’s something like a 75% chance at least one of the two will do better than expected. If that guy gets more playing time as a result of overperformance, then the production out of 2B will improve.
It won’t make a 5-game difference, but between 2B, RF, RP, and SP it might mean a difference of a game or two.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 25, 2010 6:28 PM CST up reply actions
While I can accept the math, as long as there a chance, ever so minuscule, I won't stop drinking the Kool Aid.
It also won’t change my disappointment in defeat or my joy in victory.
EAMUS CATULI
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
AMEN!!!
I am willing to bet 100 dollars on it being the case that at least 95% of all major league teams in the history of baseball have had between 68 and 92 wins…this equals 80…bump the numers up on some teams that are obviously good (Yankkes, Red Sox, Philles, etc…) and down on the bad teams (Rays, Indians, Royals, etc) and you have your projection method…I could do this in excel and probably come as close as they have – they have been off by an average of 8 wins each year…I could do that by projecting the Cubs will win 86 games this year…
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Feb 25, 2010 11:00 PM CST up reply actions
yep you've basically got it
hitting the number squarely isn’t particularly interesting, but setting the number as a median and understanding the projection system’s standard deviation IS compelling
knowing that the system has a standard deviation of 5-6 wins, lets us put into those % terms i stated above
Obviously both the ranges are pretty broad, so those looking for the system to hit exactly every year, are going to claim the ranges don’t tell us much, but i think they do
Knowing that the Cubs are 95-97% likely to finish with less than 92 wins this season, shows how far away from contention they really are and should re-focus the fan-base expectations (as Daver mentioned). In addition, I’m hoping the front office has an idea of this as well and while they’re going to play the games and let things to play out, they keep the longer-term in mind when assessing this team
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer or get the full analysis at www.fantistics.com
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 25, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I am one excited non-math geek
"I cherish this dream I had as a little kid to play baseball,'' Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Feb 25, 2010 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
What I've learned about these projections:
60% of the time, it works every time.
That makes no sense
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Feb 25, 2010 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
GAA
That doesnt make sense…
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Feb 25, 2010 11:04 PM CST up reply actions
but only part of the time?
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
Well
You must not have ever watched the movie Anchorman then.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 27, 2010 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
nooooo
my reply was Ron’s reply…and I have seen it about 832 times
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
by hansman1982 on Feb 27, 2010 10:01 PM CST up reply actions




















