I don’t mind your posts, as I’ve noted before … but I seriously have to ask … do you even read what I post?

It seems like you … well, it seems like you don’t read the posts/comments sometimes and assume. For example, the other day, you kept claiming that I was giving Jeff Gray the extreme benefit of the doubt, when I specifically indicated otherwise, and you claimed that I was being too positive about our pen when I specifically said “As for the pen, whether or not it’s a good pen, time will tell.”

I specifically note here “Btw, I’m not suggesting all these folks will breakout, just some guys I’m watching as possibilities.” and I also note that it’s possible that some guys I am not expecting breaks out. In of itself, a sleeper/breakout list typically is a list that will have a fair share of guys fail, because by the nature of being considered a possible sleeper/breakout, a lot of these guys simply won’t develop.

I guess I can’t be doing that bad, though. Seems some of you think I am extremely positive on the system, and some of you think I am down on the system. I guess since I’ve said it was a middle of the pack system since early in 2009, that such responses should be expected.

Yes, BLou, I am positive on the system, but that is with respect to what the system was in recent memory and not in regards to some insane belief that all these guys will pan out. I have specifically said most of these guys will fail to meet their ceilings (for example, I’ve noted that if we get one middle of the rotation starter out of our big three arms right now, I’ll be pleased … and it’s very possible that we get none).

Heck, I’m awfully confused how you even made such a conclusion on my post. I’m reading it again right now, and about the only people you could claim that made exceedingly positive comments on were Justin Bristow and Dae-Eun Rhee (and in Rhee’s case, I took pains to point out that I think they’ll be very careful with him). With McNutt, I noted how I’ve been tentative on him. With Dolis, I noted his weight issues. I should’ve noted his control problems as well. With Nagel, I specifically noted his injury and in referencing his ceiling as an innings eater, I specifically said “if he develops”. With Morla, I specifically indicated he has to perform ASAP, but overall, I don’t think my comments about a low-mid 90’s fastball and a decent change/slider is all that positive – it’s simply his arsenal. With Hernandez, I’ve noted his overall issues. With Suarez, I noted that I have my doubts that he’ll get a regular rotation spot (should’ve added at the start of the season). With McDaniel, I noted my disappointment. If saying Searle’s breaking ball is better than average is too positive, then I don’t know what to say. With Latham, I noted his disappearance last year and that I’m intrigued IF the stuff from 2 years ago is still there. I don’t see how any of my comments in the paragraph on the positional side could be considered too positive.

Short of it is, I really have no idea what you read in my post to get such a conclusion.

One more possible sleeper that should get tossed in -

Alberto Cabrera. Off the top, I really don’t know his arsenal. I know he’s got a live arm that runs it in the low-mid 90’s, with expectations that it might get better. To be honest, I don’t have any expectations for him. His numbers haven’t been that impressive, and nothing has really stood out in the last three years from a performance perspective. That said, the Cubs must be somewhat high on him for BA to name him the Cubs 31st prospect. Granted, it’s all a crapshoot at that point (heck, it’s really a crapshoot after the top 10 or so and lists longer than that, including my own, are simply an exercise in generating discussion, nothing more). That said, he was so far off my radar that BA’s ranking has him on my radar now. I tend to think there’s some raw arms that hold more intrigue for me below him, but you never know.

You know what … I’ll take this one step further just so you can have a post to always go back to if you want to critique my comments. My top 10 prospects are Castro/B. Jackson/Vitters/J. Jackson/Cashner/Carpenter/Lee/Burke/Flaherty/Rhee as of now. Loosely, some ceilings are
 
Again, ceiling, and read through.

Castro – It’s loosely something like a .300 hitter that hits 20 HR’s, doesn’t strike out much, and plays solid defense.

B. Jackson – All star CF that displays 5 tools and 25 HR power.

Vitters – .300 hitter that smashes about 25-30 HR’s each year and doesn’t strike out much.

J. Jackson – Number 2 starter.

Cashner – Ace starter. (yes, I believe Cashner’s ceiling is higher than Jay Jackson’s).

Carpenter – 2/3 type starter.

Lee – Plus defensive shortstop that steals a boatload of bases. Gets on base and hits for a solid average (say, above .280).

Burke – Slugging corner OF (25 HR) that is a plus defensive player due to his arm.

Flaherty – Slugging 2nd baseman that has a solid glove, maybe 20 HR power, and maybe hits for a .275ish type average.

Rhee – Ace starter with 3 plus pitches.

Okay … if you had to ask me which guys I am loosely confident (let’s say, above 5, assuming this was a 1-10 scale, with 10 as extremely confident) will reach those ceilings based on what we know right now … I would go

Jay Jackson. That’s it. That’s the only guy I feel loosely confident will reach the ascribed ceiling above. Even Jay Jackson has his issues, on control. He also could clean up the delivery (arm action is fine, but he needs to learn to pitch more than throw, and utilize his lower body more consistently).

I have hopes on other guys, no doubt about it. Doesn’t mean other guys won’t reach ceilings, just means Jay is the only one I’m confident on relative to the loose ceilings I have above. I’ve been pushing Brett Jackson on Sickels site (community prospect list), but I also think here’s a high chance that he could develop into a useful Mike Cameron-esque player (not the best comp) but maybe not the elite CF that he has the ceiling for. I’ve been touting Castro’s “floor” (not exactly, but I haven’t been pushing his ceiling, other than to say that some have suggested it could be special). I still think Cashner’s more of a pen arm, and while I like Carpenter, I’m not confident yet. I want to see Burke at a higher level before being confident, and I think Flaherty will be more DeRosa-ish. I want to see a full season on Rhee. I’ve argued that I think Hak-ju Lee is getting overhyped a bit (still like him a lot).

I hope that clears anything up. I think your posts do add something to the community, but I’m often at a loss as to where you come up with some comments relative to some of my posts.

If we take him solely on account of what he did last year, as a 21 year old former first round pick with tools, in the difficult Midwest League, then there should be a ton of buzz on him. Jim Callis (I think) indicated that they were concerned about Burke’s splits and his inability to slug against lefties. Well, plenty of corner OF’s have made careers off of being really good, what I call, plus-platoon guys. Brad Hawpe comes to mind. (BA also had some complaints about how he didn’t have enough range, which didn’t make much sense, as he has above average speed for a corner OF). But off 2009 alone, there would be minimal questions, as he showcased power, patience, discipline, He was a bit lucky perhaps, but anyway you sliced it, he had an excellent season in the MWL in 2009.

Problem is, and I think this, more than anything, is what makes people tentative, this was the third year where he spent some time in Low A, and that raises some red flags. He was rushed to Low A as a 19 year old in 2007, but he spent time in 2008. It’s fair to wonder how much of the discipline improvements came about from experience at the level and the type of pitching he might face at the level. Until he shows it against upper level pitching, those questions will exist.

There are some positives, though, that can be noted. The power is very real. The arm strength is very real. Even if he had a spike in discipline on account of being at the same level again, he was never a poor discipline guy. There have been positive reports on his swing compared to when he was drafted. Overall, it’s easy to get excited about the improvement from my perspective, as he’s still a really young guy and sometimes it takes time.

Just to be clear, due to the above, I’m not suggesting he’ll reach his ceiling or anything like that. If I ever had to bet on if a guy would, I’d always bet against. Odds are always better. That said, I consider him a critical guy in the system in some respects. He offers power that the system doesn’t have a ton of. If he develops, he would project as a solid corner OF, something that is a concern for us in the coming years (very little ahead of him, unless Brandon Guyer turns it around and shows more consistent playable power). I’m intrigued … a 22 year old in Daytona is on track in the grand scheme of things age-wise

With Rhee, the only thing I’ll be watching for early on is the reports on his stuff. I have hopes for this season for him, but I don’t have expectations. It’s just so hard to tell, and it’s easy to forget that there were some questions on his durability to stick as a starter before injury. This is a case where I would be happy with the Cubs playing it safe. The upside is that good and there’s no need or point to rush/push him, particularly when Peoria may feel quite comfortable next year in some respects in that there might be a decent amount of Koreans there (could see 4-6 guys cycle in there during the season depending on how things go).

and love the fact that he has raw power that the system doesn’t have much of (also that we really don’t have a first base depth chart … granted, first base isn’t something to worry about too much, as guys end up there). Add in that we lost another great name (Jericho Jones) and I hope to say Rebel for a few more years. He’s definitely a guy that could be a breakout … or he could go the way of Ryan Norwood. Here’s hoping not the latter. Completely slipped my mind when I ran through my initial post earlier.

The Rebel was a bit streaky, and had some luck, in 2009. Overall, he finished with a solid season line of .309/.355/.464. He slumped in May, and his power was only there for a few months. He can have a bit of a long swing at times, IIRC, that can open some holes for pitchers to attack. I’d like to see him shorten it up. IIRC, the reports suggested that he could get in slumps at times when he got pull happy. The raw power is there, but that has to start translating. He is, by most accounts, a solid defensive first baseman, though.

I could see him perhaps developing somewhat like Kyle Blanks did, a guy who I was a fan of when he was in Low A, but Blanks was also much younger (and I think Blanks ceiling is better … so a poor man’s Blanks perhaps). Blanks power did eventually develop, though, despite it not showing while in Low A. He made adjustments to his swing and showed a bit more discipline. I’d like to see Rebel take a few more walks as well, but one step at a time. If he can make the A+ transition, it’ll be a good start for 2010, and considering the depth charts, we could see him in AA IF all goes well.

And I really can’t offer you anything that you couldn’t find online … if I don’t answer your question, I’ll try again.

ABD was a former 16th round pick from the Mariners that we plucked out of Indy League. The reports back then was a high 80’s/low 90’s fastball, an average to above average slider and changeup combination. I think the reports from last fall suggested that his stuff had tightened and was a bit sharper, For the Mariners, he pitched largely out of the pen. There were positive reports, IIRC, on makeup and his “pitchability”, but there was always acknowledgment that his average stuff was enhanced through his delivery. There were some durability issues back in the day, as his arm wore down over time. I’m not sure where things stand on that front. As a starter last year, his control was sharp … but one wonders how much of that was influenced by his maturity versus raw youngsters. I think his future is probably in the pen if he makes it up the ladder. He has the stuff to potentially do that, so I wouldn’t rule it out. As a starter, he’s more of a back end type IF he makes it up. The stuff just isn’t sharp to think (and that’s all I’m doing) that he’s much more than that. With so many young arms in the A ball ranks fighting for rotation spots, it’ll be interesting what road he takes. I could see him having a strong season and moving up the ladder as a pen arm fairly quick. As a starter, he’ll be facing tougher hitters in A+/AA, so my own expectations wouldn’t be that high if he was starting. Considering age and stuff, if he struggles holding a roster spot is always a question that fans should wonder about.

Scott Maine – Former top prep arm, he went through TJ and a bad car accident while in college. He has pitched exclusively as a pen arm coming up with the Diamondbacks, and that’s probably where his future is at. Some control issues, but as a pen arm, nothing that is superbly glaring that would suggest he won’t get some big league looks. Lefty with a low-mid 90’s fastball, I’ve heard he has a solid curve and a show-me type change. He should be in the Iowa pen next year and if injuries happen, he could get a look. In some respects, he “replaces” Casey Lambert, who will be on the mend from TJ surgery this year. I expect him to be a solid AAA arm, but he was that before, so I’m not sure if I would classify him as a possible breakout.

Matt Spencer – Part of the Jake Fox trade, Spencer’s swing is reportedly a concern, as it can get long at times. I know some Oakland fans said he worked hard at shortening it and making it more compact, but that will be something to watch. BA noted he had average bat speed. He has a good arm (when he pitched, could toss it in the 90’s), so here’s a guy who could be watched as a possible conversion guy if his career stalls (lefty with 90 mph can get looks). Defensively, he’s a 1st/LF guy that could play RF in the minors. If he’s in Iowa, he could put up good numbers, but I don’t know if I have big expectations for him. I hope he puts it together, but he strikes me more as a Doug Deeds, good system player that helps your minor league offense type of guy. As always, I hope I’m wrong, as that means the Cubs have a better player than I expected.

In terms of how they interest me, I’d rank it Scott Maine, Austin Bibens-Dirkx, and Matt Spencer.

Just curious … I might be mixing you up with someone.

I’m going to give Raley a year before plopping him on my breakout/sleeper list. Obviously, I hope he makes a Jay Jackson type move, but … as noted, he has to add weight and, IIRC, be a bit more durable as I think he struggled down the stretch last year and his stuff weakened near the end of the collegiate season. Very happy he’s pitching, though. I know some folks were curious about him as a speedy, top of the order CF, but I would rather try him as a pitcher. He fits into what I call (and I’ve been trying to finish a full fanpost on this) Wilken’s model: the “projectable” collegian.

I’m simply fascinated by Wes Darvill. That’s the best word I can use. I am intrigued. Plus speed right now, projects to have power. No one really expects him to keep his athleticism and add power, though. What if he does? Frame and physical maturation projections are just that – projections. That said, I’m curious by a lot of comments to move him to third. IIRC, there was a report suggesting his arm strength was a bit average for short. It would probably work for third, but I had been thinking that his fallback would be to 2nd. That said, far away, and I imagine the Cubs will keep him at short for awhile. It’s hard to make a comp because he is so raw and so young, but I could see him develop into a Ryan Flaherty-ish type player in a positive scenario (and in many other systems, Flaherty would’ve stuck at short for another year or two. Heck, the reports at Peoria weren’t bad at all about his ability at short).

I wasn’t disappointed in Searle. Actually, I think I sort of came around on him. I wasn’t high on him at first. I don’t mind the maturity questions – youngster from a foreign country. He did jump a level, and overall, his baseball background is fairly limited. To have a good 2-seamer and improving curve is a step in the right direction, IMO. He probably could use more time at A+, but I think they may bump him to AA.

I thought Huseby’s secondary pitches were reportedly real sharp last year? Admittedly, been a few months since I checked/pondered it, but I thought his slider was a plus pitch and that he had a decent change. His fastball never jumped back to pre-draft stuff, but it was still in the low 90’s last year. I still wish they would try him as a starter. After the control issues of 2008, easing him back into pitching through the pen was the right move, but … what’s his future as a pen arm? Doesn’t strike me as an elite closer type, whereas the low 90’s 2-seamer that generates decent downward movement and plus slider looks better in the rotation, IMO.