2010 BCB Community Projections: Geovany Soto
by Al Yellon on Feb 9, 2010 8:00 AM CST
in Community Projections
89 comments
With spring training about to begin, let's start our annual projection series. In the comments to this post, post what you think Geovany Soto is going to do this year. Will Geo bounce back to his 2008 ROY level? The photo in this post, compared to this one I took of him at the Cubs Convention, clearly shows how much weight Geo has lost and that he's in much better shape going into the 2010 season.
For Geo, let's do the following categories:
AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, SO, AVG/OBA/SLG
Make sure your AVG/OBA/SLG numbers match what you've posted for the other numbers. For the purposes of this post, just use BB and H to determine OBA (although other things like SF and HBP will factor into that number in real life).
I'll need a volunteer to compile all the numbers so I can post a full projection when this series is complete.
Thanks to SWL, we now have a spreadsheet into which you can type your projection yourself. Everyone who's already made a pick, please type it into this spreadsheet. If you make your pick after 3:40 pm CST on Monday, you can just do it directly into the spreadsheet. Starting tomorrow we'll have the spreadsheets posted in the morning.
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OK, I'll start.
AB 495
R 65
H 137
2B 29
3B 1
HR 19
RBI 76
BB 70
SO 110
AVG .277
OBA .366
SLG .455
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Guess I'll give it a go and throw some numbers around
AB 521
R 59
H 143
2B 34
3B 0
HR 17
RBI 79
BB 72
SO 107
AVG .274
OBA .362
SLG .438
Slightly more pessimistic and hoping he'll prove me wrong...
AB 454
R 61
H 121
2B 26
3B 0
HR 17
RBI 68
BB 59
SO 98
AVG .267
OBA .351
SLG .436
Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.
by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Feb 9, 2010 9:01 AM CST reply actions
Not all that pessimistic, really
Besides expecting less at bats, your slash lines are more or less in line with what Al and I prediected, with the only difference being around 3-5 hits over the course of the year. Other than that you have similar K/BB and power numbers – I think if you believe that’s pessimistic, I’ll be a very happy Cub fan in 2010.
Well I did say slightly. :)
Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.
by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Feb 9, 2010 9:11 AM CST up reply actions
Here they are
AB 475
R 68
H 140
2B 27
3B 1
HR 21
RBI 77
BB 68
SO 102
AVG 290
OBA 376
SLG 490
by Cubsfan Waveland on Feb 9, 2010 10:14 AM CST reply actions
I used your OBA to guess walks at 69
But any guesses for SO or RBI??
Geo- This is make or break year for him
AB 500 .280 BA, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 30 2B, 60 BB, 65 R, .360 OB , 100 SO ……. I think he will be almost identical to his ROY season but I expect him to put the ball in play a little more which should be a positive. Soto is a huge key this year and anything remotely close to his ROY season is a huge uplift to this Offense.
by 1908isjustayear on Feb 9, 2010 10:40 AM CST reply actions
Hoping for a decent rebound
Soto’s turnaround might be the most important thing for the Cubs’ 2010 success. Still, I think he might end up pressing for a while this year, keeping the full 2008 potential at bay for a bit longer.
AB 465
R 63
H 123
2B 31
3B 1
HR 19
RBI 79
BB 56
SO 115
AVG .265
OBA .344
SLG .458
I'd say that
Soto’s turnaround is THE most important thing for the Cubs’ success. Well, that and the fact that they are very old. And their pitching isn’t that good.
by zam on Feb 9, 2010 5:18 PM CST up reply actions
Soto
AB 445
R 53
H 121
2B 28
3B 1
HR 22
RBI 82
BB 65
SO 97
AVG .272
OBA .365
SLG .602
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 10:51 AM CST reply actions
If he's healthy and can get hot during the summer...
there’s no reason to think he can’t do this.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
I think there was some Harry Potter-like magic going on here...
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
It cold in this part of the thread...
like something died here once and it’s restless spirit remains.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
I left this thread open when I left my computer for a while
How or why someone would go through the effort of creating that [thing that cannot be named] is beyond me.
Definately magic
Somehow a .488 SLG was transformed into a .602 with a wave of a maple or ash wand. SWL remains very talented. :)
So easy a caveman can do it!
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
Soto's power numbers are tough to predict
He’s one of those guys who didn’t hit for power in the minors (9 HR or less until 2007), and of course many power hitters did not become prolific in the HR department until they hit the majors and I think he’s certainly capable of being a 20HR per year kind of guy.
Last season his BB and K numbers were actually much better than his rookie year. So he made good contact and showed a good eye, but when he made contact it didn’t go very far. I’d peg him at:
AB 500
R 50
H 119
2B 27
3B 1
HR 19
RBI 74
BB 65
K 100
all of his numbers are hard to predict
he has been all over the map throughout his career
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Feb 11, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
Pretty optimistic ...
I’d have to do more research before making a prediction, but I hope you guys are right.
I know, same here.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 9, 2010 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
I'm hoping he didn't lose too much weight.
Too quickly.
AB 460
R 40
H 105
2B 20
3B 1
HR 17
RBI 70
BB 60
K 110
Power
I believe that we should all be skeptical of what Geo’s power numbers will be this year. I hope Geo can stay healthy, call great games and maintain some consistency. That being said:
AB 474
R 67
H 124
2B 23
3B 1
HR 19
RBI 71
BB 66
AVG.262
SLG.430
I am going with
10,000 BHS (bobbleheads sold)
16 TOBC (tubes of Brylcream)
1 PTWBZ (punch traded with Big Z)
1400 JCC (Jenny Craig commercials)
11 TSWMJ (times seen with Mary Jane)
Its gonna be a great year!
When I invite a woman to dinner I expect her to look at my face. That's the price she has to pay. Groucho
.
You know, it would be nice if you could take this seriously...
… instead of posting stuff that a middle-school student would be embarrassed to post.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
1000 pardons
When I invite a woman to dinner I expect her to look at my face. That's the price she has to pay. Groucho
.
Al's wearing his crabby pants today it appears
This is baseball Al, lighten up
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Feb 11, 2010 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
All these predictions are great if any would happen.
If any of almost all these predictions happened, we would be in good shape at the catcher position. Catcher usually isn’t a position with great hitting, so if Geo is around these then it’s only a advantage, which we need. I’m just hoping by now he is getting more comfortable calling games. Defense for a catcher is more important than offense. Wish we still had Blanco. Regardless, I think Geo is a wildcard. If he is good, that could push us over the a hump, but if not, who knows.
I guess this sort of thing is beyond me.
If I were to make any kind of prediction and not have it look idiotic, I would need to have his numbers in these categories from last year.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 9, 2010 12:41 PM CST reply actions
Even with the numbers of the last two years, anything I might post would be almost purely random guessing.
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
Not so different from what everyone else is doing.
The point is, the more predictions we have, the more accurate (presumably) the group prediction will be.
Still need a volunteer to tabulate all these.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Are you just looking for someone to take the averages from every post
And give the overall BCB split for Geo?? If so, I dont mind doing this – but at what date should I figure out the averages?
We also want to see the variance and a probability density graph.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 2:08 PM CST up reply actions
Was that a hint hint nudge nudge?
Do you have the posts in a machine readable format, or would it mean copying all the predictions “by hand?”
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
It would mean copying them by hand.
And doing all the other players, too.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
maybe you could create a google spreadsheet document for us to post our predicitons in.
That would save everyone time and would give realtime feedback for the community averages.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 2:23 PM CST up reply actions
If someone else wants to do that, be my guest...
… and let us all know where it is.
Spreadsheets make my eyes glaze over.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
check your email
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
That is really messy
You ought to talk to the techies at SB-Nation if they could “whip up” a system for entering these kinds of predictions, which would automagically post the predictions as a comment under the users name and simultaneously providing blog master with a running calculation of the various figures together with a summary. If they could make the configuration of the questions & values easy for non-programmers, then I could imagine that various blogs (not only the baseball) blogs at SB-Nation would find this useful.
This kind of function would be a bit like a poll or internet voting… shouldn’t be to difficult to implement…
::mumble:: ::think::
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
Yeah, I should.
Or more correctly, I should have a couple of months ago. Probably too late now.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
There's always next year...
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
Optomistic?
AB 391
R 44
H 95
D 16
T 1
HR 14
RBI 53
WALKS 49
SO 81
AVG 0.243
ON BASE 0.368
SLG 0.475
Trade Doug Deeds to Washington.
optimistic???
100 games played? Injury or do you think he sucks this bad?
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
First
thank you for correction of my spelling. Secondly, the word was used more in a tongue and cheek way. As for these numbers from a catcher, I don’t think they “suck” really. I would be happy with this as long as his D is above average, which I think it will be.
Trade Doug Deeds to Washington.
You do realize your slash lines in no way are represented by your raw data.
Your raw data projects him to be at .243/.327/.396/.723. A far cry short from what you entered. If he gets the raw data you are suggesting, he will be below what we need.
My hope, anyway...(thinking about if he lives up to his potential)
AB 480
R 50
H 140
2B 30
3B 4
HR 25
RBI 80
BB 72
SO 60
AVG .291
OBA .384
SLG .527
OPS .911
if he has an OBP around 360 that means he's showing patience again.
AB 440
R 58
H 117
2B 29
3B 1
HR 19
RBI 68
BB 63
SO 86
AVG .278
OBA .360
SLG .450
what helped us alot in 08 was the patience they all had at the plate. hopefully we can gert that back and it will become contagious!
Soto had patience in 2009.
50 walks in 389 PA. In 2008 he had 62 walks in 563 PA. It wasn’t his walk total that suffered last year, it was his batting average.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
AB 502
R 76
H 146
2B 33
3B 2
HR 25
RBI 84
BB 66
SO 101
AVG .290
OBA .366
SLG .444
And to top it off…4 stolen bases.
The out-of-shape Geo had one SB last year.
Who knows how many the new, svelte Geo could have?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Who will have more CS/PO next year?
Soto, Fukudome or Theriot?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
Sori and Soto are key
If they come closer to their 2008 Nos. than 2009 we’ve got a chance to be good, division winners again.
Sori has to hit over .260 with 20+ homers or he’s a drain given his horrible defense and diminished running ability. We got him as a 40-40 man now 30-20 (HR-SB) would be acceptable but a .230 avg. isn’t going to cut it with all the K’s.
It’s a make or break year for him I feel or Cubs will try to dump him, a la Bradley, and find a better option in LF who has speed and on-base ability, plus defense.
Geo.....
With the weight loss I am skeptical of Geo’s 2008 numbers. That being said…….
AB 433
R 57
H 117
2B 22
3B 2
HR 14
RBI 61
BB 47
SO 78
AVG .270
OBA .344
SLG .427
by timeforachange2009 on Feb 9, 2010 2:58 PM CST reply actions
Somewhere in between
AB 480
R 60
H 124
2B 39
3B 1
HR 20
RBI 73
BB 55
SO 115
AVG .258
OBP .348
SLG .469
One of Lee Elia's 15%
Al
I currently have a spreadsheet that I’m keeping with the formulas and everyones predictions. If you have someone else working on this, or a better method, let me know and I’ll save myself some time. When you’re ready to post the information, let me know and I’ll email you the Excel file and we’ll go from there.
SWL has one, too.
If you’d like to help out, let me know and I’ll put you in touch with him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Either way, it makes no difference
It’s not exactly a 2 person job by any means, I have the whole spreadsheet completed – worst case I can just send him mine to double check numbers for any errors??
Some things I'm noticing
Is that people are filling out the hits, walks, 2b, etc, but then posting completeley random slash lines that dont actually go with their projections. I’m going to simply use their solid info and calculate the AVG, OBP and SLG from those, not trust what they actually put.
That's why I only put the raw data numbers in the form.
The spreadsheet will do the calculations.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
My guess is that some of the posters were more confident in their slash projections
And just kinda guessed at the hit totals. I’m not sure what the best way to handle this would be.
Soooooo do I need to fill out SWL's new form at the top
using the same numbers I already posted earlier in the thread? Or am I to understand those projections already made in this thread have been entered into the spreadsheet already?
Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.
by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Feb 9, 2010 4:13 PM CST reply actions
Yes.
Everyone who posted before 3:40 pm CST has to re-enter their numbers.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Done. Thanks.
Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.
by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Feb 9, 2010 4:22 PM CST up reply actions
Swagged
but you got mine…
- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.
Is the display of the stats going to include lines of what each of us put? Also, if I remember correctly from his rookie year, isnt part of Soto’s allure is his ability to “handle” the staff? Is there any way to quantify this?
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
Currently 34,839 on the Season Ticket Wait List - Expected age of being #0: 119
That’s his ISN. Intangible State Number.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Feb 10, 2010 1:42 PM CST up reply actions
I'm a little curious.
If we put our predictions in, does the form above automatically average them? And if so, is there any way to see what the averages are before we put in our predictions?
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 9, 2010 11:06 PM CST reply actions
On this one, no.
On subsequent ones, yes.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 11:19 PM CST up reply actions
Which question is that answering?
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 9, 2010 11:19 PM CST up reply actions
The form inputs data into a spreadsheet...
and the averages are automatically calculated. This is the first time I’ve tried using Google Documents, so on this one I’m not making the spreadsheet available quite yet. In the coming days the next ones will allow you to see the averages, somehow.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 9, 2010 11:39 PM CST up reply actions
Ah, I see.
Thanks for explaining it.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Feb 9, 2010 11:40 PM CST up reply actions
I think he bounces back to have a decent year. In the .270 range with 18-22 HR
But his new body shape can only help his mobility behind the plate. Hopefully there will not be such a difference between Hill and Soto on defense this year.
and that would be good news
and not all that unlikely. I don;t see him equaling his rookie numbers, but I don’t think last year is indicative of his abilities either. I, too, expect something in between.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Feb 11, 2010 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
wow, I dont know what any of you guys are talking about...
baseball.........is Kool Aid the remedy, or the cause of my desire for it
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