2010 BCB Community Projections: Starting Position Players (Corrected)
by Al Yellon on Mar 10, 2010 8:00 AM CST
in Community Projections
31 comments
As pointed out in this comment by Dave86 in yesterday's community projection post, there were some errors in SWL's spreadsheet calculating AVG/OBP/SLG for the players projected. The spreadsheet added all the projected averages and averaged them rather than recalculating them from the counting stats.
The corrected numbers are after the jump. I think you'll find most of them (admittedly, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez may be a little high) more realistic. The counting stat projections were correct and do not need to be reposted.
Geovany Soto: .283/.361/.477, .838 OPS
Derrek Lee: .303/.384/.538, .922 OPS
Jeff Baker: .283/.347/.435, .782 OPS
Aramis Ramirez: .310/.385/.565, .950 OPS
Ryan Theriot: .291/.358/.380, .738 OPS
Alfonso Soriano: .282/.335/.519, .854 OPS
Marlon Byrd: .286/.346/.461, .807 OPS
Kosuke Fukudome: .280/.386/.441, .827 OPS
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See, if math had a practical application like THIS for me back in high school
I might not have gone into broadcasting for a career.
"Look, what do you want me to do?"
I hated math too, but ended up programming computers for sports broadcasters...
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
Numbers are dumb
Letters are where the chicks are
I'm Buck Melanoma. Moley Russell's wart. Not her wart. Not her wart! I'm... I'm the wart. She's my tumor. My... my growth. My... uh, my pimple. I'm Uncle Wart. Just old Buck "Wart" Russell. That's what they call me, or Melanoma Head. - Uncle Buck
by Andiamo Cuccioli on Mar 10, 2010 8:10 AM CST reply actions
....girls like intangibles
" It’s spring fever - you don’t know what it is you want, but it fairly makes your heart ache, you want it so. "--Mark Twain
by cooliogirl47 on Mar 10, 2010 8:38 AM CST up reply actions
good bavarian beer?
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
that too!
" It’s spring fever - you don’t know what it is you want, but it fairly makes your heart ache, you want it so. "--Mark Twain
by cooliogirl47 on Mar 10, 2010 8:45 AM CST up reply actions
Not
sure the last time I saw a whole lineup that features all position players hitting over .280. If this rings true they should score as many runs as they did in ’08.
Trade Doug Deeds to Washington.
That does look much more reasonable
Still, they’re good enough that if everyone comes close to those projections (without losing significant time to injuries), the team should be in excellent shape.
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
It takes a community
to overrate a team. Realistically, I think subtracting 20 points from everyone’s BA might be a start. And even at that no one would be having a particularly poor season.
It takes one guy to underrate a team.
I agree these are pure kool-aid, but subtracting 20 points? Nah.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Mar 10, 2010 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
I know that not everyone will hit 20 points worse than this.
But overall, I think 20 off each BA is closer to reality. Some better, hopefully not many worse. What’s up there is pretty much the absolute best plus some that you could expect from each player this season. Possible I suppose, if, to paraphrase Mark Harris’ Henry Wiggen, “…God drops everything else.”
For me really
I just can’t see Soriano hitting anything above .280 anymore unless healthy and not swinging for every pitch that is in the dirt. All the other projections have great possibility’s. Now I say more around .298 for Rammy personally.
Please win one before I leave this place. Thank you.
Again, I point out that Soriano's lifetime average is .278.
Before last year’s debacle, it was .282.
I don’t see any reason he couldn’t hit at least .278 this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Sori is going to have to learn to hit ( or layoff) the breaking ball.
Ryan Howard and Soriano saw less fastballs than anybody last year.
Maybe that is where
Jaramillo comes in..
by alabamacubbie on Mar 10, 2010 10:32 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
GREEN!
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
Very optimistic
but I hope you guys are right.
the projections suggest that none of the starters will become injured
which is logical, because you cant project WHO will become injured. Of course, if none of the starters do get injured, the Cubs chances of winning will be much greater.
I’m also curious to see how the projections of Nady, as well as his # of bats. If nobody gets hurt, then he might only get 250 at bats. In the event that Lee or an OF gets injured, Nady gets 400+ at bats.
Correct about injuries.
I don’t think anyone would disagree that the Cubs would have won more games last year with Aramis Ramirez playing 140 games instead of 82.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
or with Aaron Miles playing 0 games instead of 74.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 10, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
He'd have been closer to 0 if Ramirez had been healthy.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Runs scored projection
Baseball musings has an interesting lineup analysis tool. You plug in the OBP/SLG numbers for each player and it spits out a projection for how many runs a game it thinks that lineup will score. Here is what I got when I put in the numbers above.
Best Cubs lineup
Fukudome, Lee, Baker, Ramirez, Soto, Soriano, Byrd, Pticher, Theriot would score 5.615 runs/game which would be 907 runs for the year. This would be 52 more runs than they scored in 2008 and exactly 200 more than last year.
Just for fun here is the Worst Cubs lineup
Pitcher, Baker, Soto, Theriot, Byrd, Fukudome, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano would score 4.981 runs/game which is 807 runs for the season. This number is still 100 runs above last years performance.
Obviously there will pinch hitters and people besides these guys in the lineup, but still an interesting look. If we actually get these projections from these guys it is safe to say the offense will not be the problem this year.
Still no 12π on helicopter swings on Fukudome?
Geesh.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 10, 2010 11:19 AM CST reply actions
One more thing
For the lineup that I expect the Cubs to roll out (hopefully)
Fukudome, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Byrd, Soriano, Soto, Baker, Pitcher they will score 5.361 runs/game which is 869. Obviously not as many as their optimal lineup, but probably more realistic in the amount of runs scored.
That lineup tool is interesting.
I think it overstates run scoring. But I think we’d all be very happy if the Cubs could score 800 runs this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think 800 runs would mean more wins than last year.
Maybe not a playoff birth, but as long as it’s better than last year.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 10, 2010 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
realistic expectations.
These numbers may be a little optimistic, but I also think they are realistic expectations for the players. If they all meet their potential then this should be a great year for the Cubs! I would even suggest that some players like Fukodome and Theriot have the potential for even better seasons than the projections suggest…I love to be optimistic!
Me too
but there is never a year in which EVERYONE meets their potential. It is part of what make baseball great. Unpredictable.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Some guys will hit this...
…but overall, the slugging % is too high and the BA is too high.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
These projections really say more about which players the fans respect most, rather than what numbers they are likely to hit. Eg. an aging Derrek Lee and A-Ram will still hit the leather off the ball, while Fukudome and Soriano people don’t really trust (but are still optimistic about, given their potential). What I find really odd is that these figures are an AVERAGE, which suggests that some people are expecting, what, .350 from Lee?
I'm sorry but,
These stats just seem soooo inflated. I think there is a realistic chance that the cubs can make the playoffs (probably wild card berth), but I just cannot possibly believe that Fukudome is going to hit .280. If .280 is Fooks average that must mean that some people put him hitting at LEAST .310 (which would be insane based on previous years of production). I love the Cubs with all of my heart, but I think that most BCBr’s need to take a big swig of realism. I’m just saying…
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