Know Your Enemy: Cubs NL Central Opponents Preview
by Al Yellon on Mar 17, 2010 9:00 AM CDT
in News
241 comments
Last year, I did a series about the Cubs' opponents -- this proved to be very popular. With so much else going on this spring, I'm going to do this by division; there isn't time to do a complete rundown of all the teams in the NL Central individually, but I'll try to write a little bit more on each of the five opposing teams in the Cubs' division than about teams in the other divisions or in the AL. Since the Cubs have today off, their only off day of the spring season, this seemed to be a good day to post these. This list is NOT necessarily in predicted order of finish; I'll have my preseason predictions posted here on April 4.
Follow me past the jump for the team previews.
St. Louis Cardinals -- 2009: 1st place, 91-71
The defending division champion Cardinals return, nearly intact, the team that blew through most of the regular season unchallenged last year. They're also returning the team that did exactly as well as the Cubs did in the division series the year before -- got swept by the Dodgers.
They spent $120 million to retain Matt Holliday for seven more seasons. Will this affect their ability to re-sign Albert Pujols when he becomes a free agent? Or will the Cardinals have their own version of the Alfonso Soriano deal in a couple of years? Only time will tell. Holliday helped carry the Cardinals after his acquisition, but does anyone really expect him to repeat his .353/.419/.604 performance? That's a level he had only once in all his years in Colorado.
Otherwise St. Louis has one old/new face for their offense, Felipe Lopez, who hit well for them in part of the 2008 season, but who has a reputation as not a great clubhouse guy and whose postseason appearances total zero.
For the Cardinals, the real question is: will Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both be as solid as they were last year and stay free of injury? If the answer to that is "yes", St. Louis probably wins the division again. They've got Brad Penny on board this season -- will he be the 5.69 ERA guy he was in Boston, or the one who put together six solid starts after he was traded to the Giants? And Ryan Franklin, after entering September 2009 with a 1.05 ERA, blew three saves that month with a 6.75 ERA and had the memorable meltdown in the division series. What will that do to him?
Tony LaRussa will glare out of the St. Louis dugout behind those sunglasses for the 15th consecutive season. He begins this year 211 wins behind John McGraw for second place on the all-time managers' list (he passed McGraw in total games managed for 2nd last year).
Cincinnati Reds -- 2009: 4th place, 78-84
The Reds are hoping that you'll notice that they went 20-11 last year after September 1, and that this record is an indicator of what they'll do in 2010. The dirty little secret of that post-September 1 record is that they went 7-1 against the Pirates (who were 9-22 after 9/1) and swept the Astros in a three-game series (Houston was 11-20 from September 1 on). So apart from that 10-1 record within the Central, the Reds went 10-10 after the calendar turned to September, including losing two of three at Wrigley Field.
Nevertheless, the Reds do have a pretty potent offensive team. Their primary offseason batting acquisition was Aaron Miles.
No, wait. That's not right.
Well, actually, it pretty much is. The Reds also signed Orlando Cabrera to be their starting shortstop. Yes, that's right -- the same Orlando Cabrera who hasn't hit double figures in HR since 2004, who has been declining in OPS and OPS+ steadily for the last five years, and who had a reputation as a clubhouse lawyer with the White Sox.
But hey, you guys are welcome to him. And Aaron Miles, too.
Seriously, we all know the Reds' major signing this offseason was Cuban lefthander Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can throw 100+ MPH and could be a staff ace as soon as this season -- or not. It's really impossible to tell whether Chapman will be successful in the major leagues, because he's never faced this kind of competition before. If he can, the Reds have a bargain for their $30 million. If not, it'll be another year of seeing whether Aaron Harang's arm can fall off.
The Reds have some good hitters, including Joey Votto, who has 12 career HR against the Cubs in 121 lifetime AB. The most he has against any other team is eight. And then there's Drew Stubbs and Drew Sutton, and for the life of me I can't tell them apart, except for their last names.
And don't even get me started about Dusty Baker, who probably has to lead the Reds into the playoffs -- if he doesn't, this will probably be his last year as a major league manager.
Milwaukee Brewers -- 2009: 3rd place, 80-82
The Brewers followed up their wild card season in 2008 with a sub-.500 campaign that was largely due to allowing a frighteningly large total of 818 runs. Only the Nationals' horrific pitching staff allowed more. While Yovani Gallardo had a pretty good year, none of the Brewers' other four primary starters had an ERA under 5, and two of them posted ERA's north of 6.
Milwaukee has attempted to address this problem by signing two mid-range free agent lefties, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. This is potentially bad news for the Cubs, as both of those pitchers eat Cubs hitters for breakfast, lunch and dinner (and snacks, too). For some reason Cub teams always have trouble with soft-tossing lefties. Davis has a 3.20 lifetime ERA in 16 starts against the Cubs, one of his best marks against any team. This is his second stint with the Brewers; he was also there from 2004-2006. Wolf beat the Cubs twice last year, the second time (on August 21) almost singlehandedly: he allowed the Cubs only one hit (a Ryan Theriot single) and drove in both Dodger runs with a double.
The two big bats of the Brewer offense, Prince Fielder and the preening Ryan Braun, return. Newcomers this year include Carlos Gomez (acquired in what appeared to be a one-sided trade in favor of the Twins for J.J. Hardy) and catchers Gregg Zaun and George Kottaras. Alcides Escobar, installed at SS last summer when Hardy was hurt and not performing, will be in his first full season.
Houston Astros -- 2009: fifth place, 74-88
Any time you complain about Jim Hendry as Cubs GM, remember these two words: Ed Wade. When he took over as Astros GM in August 2007, Houston was less than two years removed from a World Series appearance. They won 86 games in 2008 -- mostly as a fluke; they got outscored by 31 runs -- and Wade had Astros fans unrealistically hoping it would continue in 2009.
It didn't. The Astros hung around the edges of contention for a while, then went 23-36 from August 1 till the end of the season. You think the Cubs are an old team? Only two Houston regulars last year were younger than 33. All of those players return, except Miguel Tejada, who returned to his former stomping grounds in Baltimore as a free agent. So what do the Astros do? Yes, that's right, sign a player almost as old as Tejada -- Pedro Feliz. Feliz will take over at third base and a 27-year-old rookie with a .694 OPS in over 200 minor league PA (Tommy Manzella) will play shortstop. Sure, Carlos Lee can still hit, and Lance Berkman can too -- when he's healthy. Hunter Pence is going to have to carry a heavy load.
Their biggest acquisition on the pitching side was former Phillie Brett Myers. Myers has been good -- at times -- but with injuries, his last good year was 2005. The Astros will have to hope for a comeback. Roy Oswalt, too, is now 32 and not the dominant pitcher he was a few years back. Wandy Rodriguez -- well, when you look at him, you wonder how a guy like that can be a major league pitcher. He put up decent numbers last year -- but he's 31, and you then wonder how long he can keep this up.
The Astros are an old team and a bad team. There's at least a chance they could let the Pirates out of the NL Central basement this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates -- 2009: 6th place, 62-99Only those horrific Nationals prevented the Pirates from having the worst record in baseball last year. As was noted at the time it happened, the Pirates set a record last year with their 17th consecutive losing season. They'll make it 18 this year -- but there is actually light at the end of the Fort Pitt Tunnel.
It was also noted at the trading deadline in 2009, right after the Pirates sent John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny to the Cubs, that the Bucs had only three players left from their 25-man roster from the same time in 2008 -- Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit (it would have been four, but closer Matt Capps was on the DL). All that trading produced a ton of bodies from several farm systems. Some of them may begin to produce in 2010, including Lastings Milledge, Charlie Morton and Brandon Moss.
But the Pirates' farm system is also, at last, producing players that may have an impact in Pittsburgh. Andrew McCutchen is the real deal -- at age 22, he hit .286/.365/.471 and finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He's about the only current player whose jersey or T-shirt you see Pirates fans (when you see any of them) wearing around PNC Park.
Other Pirates young players who may have an impact (if not now, then soon) include Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Pittsburgh native Neil Walker, who got among the loudest cheers for any Pirate when I was there last September (of course, "loud" is relative when there are only about 5,000 people in the seats).
Former Cub Ronny Cedeno will likely be relegated to a bench role with the Pirates' acquisition of Bobby Crosby from the A's. Then again, Crosby is usually hurt, so Cedeno may get more playing time from that.
The Pirates' starting pitching is better than you might think. Duke and Maholm are solid, but the best pitcher on the staff might be Ross Ohlendorf, who they acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal in 2008. Ohlendorf led the team in wins (11) and had the only winning record on the staff while posting a 3.92 ERA.
The Pirates may have a good enough team to edge out the Astros for fifth place, if some of their kids develop and they have a little bit of luck.
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Good breakdown.
I wasn’t aware of many of the changes within the division. Thanks Al!
"75 wins is optimistic with this staff. Optimistic." and "Cubs are looking at 4th place in 2010." BLou, March 17, 2010.
I like the photo, Al.
Speaking as a Cubs fan, obviously the sight of Pujols crushing the ball always scares me, although speaking as a ballhawk, I love it. Albert’s been very good to me over the years. But it’s the fans in the background that give me a chuckle.
Guy on the far left is obviously admiring the frontside of the woman walking towards him, while the guy on the far right is obviously admiring her backside. Meanwhile the guy in the back is tilting his head to the side trying to look around the woman so he can see Pujols crank another one…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
LOL ... that's a great photo caption!
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Their admiration may have something to do with her apparently being a vendor of some sort...
"Look, what do you want me to do?"
I would hope so, because she is a bit of a plus sizer. Kind of like one of Mark Grace's slumpbusters.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 18, 2010 1:08 AM CDT up reply actions
OT-Happy St. Patrick's Day everyone.
Got my green Cubs t-shirt on today. This is the only day each year I wear it.
Nice post, Al. Don’t know all that much about the other teams, so thanks.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
Happy St. Patrick's Day to you too.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Happy St. Patty's Day! ♣
"Nady and his weak beard steps in" --Cubbie-Tim on Mar 12, 2010 9:53 PM
by cooliogirl47 on Mar 17, 2010 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I love me some St. Pattys Day!
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
The guy in the picture is wearing the wrong jersey...
…but that’s ok.
My thoughts are pretty simple on this… Cubs, Cards and Reds will contend most of the first half. Cubs and Cards will contend the second half. Mark my words, Chapman will pitch 2 or 3 years in the bigs with Dusty as his manager… 10-15 with anyone else. He’s going to RUIN that poor kid. Look at what’s happened to guys like Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto who were also all very well respected prospects… they came up, Dusty left them out there for 7 or 8 innings EVERY game, and boom… they’re useless (mostly…). It’s too bad because that kid is something special.
Milwaukee is a bit of a wild card here, but I don’t think they’ll have the staying power this year, and Trevor Hoffman is like 90 so I doubt he’ll be at his best all year. They’re going to have to score a LOT of runs to win games, and with the quality pitching in the league this year I don’t know if that’s going to happen, especially against the central.
What can you honestly say about Houston? They got old, tried to go young, and their kids couldn’t hit. They have some great bats still, but that team is on a high fiber diet, and it’s starting to show.
And finally the Buccos… not sure what to say about the Pirates. I grew up in Pittsburgh and my family had season tickets (including playoff tickets) from 1988-1993 when we moved back to Chicago. I saw some incredible baseball in my formative years, including the emergence of Bonds, Bonilla, Van Slyke, Chico Lind… all those guys. I really, REALLY hope they sell the team to someone like Mario Lemieux who has a vested interest in the city he calls home and the resources to make some decent moves. It’s just not working for them now, and I fear they could be on their way out if things don’t improve.
The Hoff...
…was in the Top 5 for most saves last season. And while he’s probably the oldest pitcher in the majors now that Randy Johnson is officially retired, I don’t expect that much of a drop off yet.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
Come on, 7 or 8 innings every game? You think you may be stretching that just a bit? I
knew it wouldn’t take very long to start the Dusty-bashing, but how about a little objective analysis. Do you seriously think that the Reds organization would sit idly by and let Dusty “ruin” prospects like Bailey and Cueto and then just had over a prospect like Chapman if that were the case? What about the myriad of injuries that happen to pitchers all over the league? I suppose that’s Dusty’s fault too. Come on dude, pitchers get hurt for a number of reasons. Get off of it.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
The Reds were second in the NL last year...
… in starts where the starter threw 100-119 pitches — 92 of those. Only the D’backs had more. (The Cubs had 68 such starts.)
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
And strangely enough, pitchers from other teams manage to get hurt. My point is that it's not
as simple as saying the Reds pitchers get hurt because they throw more pitches. If the Reds were the only team with pitching injuries, I would buy that theory. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
There comes a point though when you need to look at the facts
The amount of innings pitchers throw over 110 pitches has dropped an insane amount in the last 10 years.
The pitchers who go out and throw 100-120 pitches on a consistant basis are not just the ones that get hurt, they’re the ones with career ending injuries.
And you have proof of this? What about relief pitchers? Are they exempt from injuries?
When was the last time a relief pitcher threw 100-120 pitches on a consistent basis. Let’s ask Angel Guzman how he feels about his career right now. I’m sure that Joe Nathan would beg to differ from your claim that throwing 100-120 pitches on a consistent basis is the formula for getting injured.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
proof that the pitch totals have dropped dramatically in the last 10 years??
Yes, you can view it . To sumamrize though, in 2000, there were 454 starts that went over 200 pitches; in 2008 there were 71, which is an 84% drop.
Also, there is no need indicate I stated that relief pitchers can’t also have career ending injuries, obviously I didnt and obviously this is not the case. However, I am confident that if you studied the length of the career of a pitcher who averages 120 pitches or more per game against someone between 95-105 pitches per game, I bet you would see a huge variation of both injuries and length of career.
Baseball coaches did not simply start removing pitchers earlier, decreasing the number of times pitchers threw over 120 pitches by 84% just for the hell of it. Obviously they have evidence supporting the fact that it is not healthy.
No, not proof that pitch totals have dropped dramatically, proof that pitchers who
throw 100-120 pitches on a consistent basis have more injuries than pitchers who throw less. That’s the proof I was asking about. You may be confident that of this, but I would like to see some hard data supporting that supposition.
Pitch counts is just one factor in pitching injuries, but it’s not the be-all and end-all. To jump on that stat and claim that it is the determining factor ignores facts such as mechanics, physiology and endurance. Obviously pitch counts can’t be the determining factor because relief pitchers suffer injuries on the same scale as starters. If a pitcher has poor mechanics or is not conditioned to handle the load he will eventually break down. Limiting his pitch counts may delay it, but eventually his body will fail. It’s a simple matter of physics. You may want to blame Dusty for pitching injuries, but he is not responsible for the other factors that determine the long-term health of a pitcher.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Honestly, if you care to disagree, that is completely understandable, and I don't have a problem with your opinion.
And I’m sure, as you expect, I’m not going to spend hours researching and creating charts with statistical proof for everyone here.
I don’t disagree that mechanics and training make up as much or more than pitch counts, that is not my point. My point is that if you have player A, who has perfect mechanics, conditioning, etc, and averages 120 pitches per game, he is much more likely to get hurt than player B, who has perfect mechanics, conditioning, etc and averages 100 pitches per game. There is a belief (and stats to follow if you care to look it up) that pitchers who threw over a certain number of pitches the previous year (I believe the number is 3,000, but dont quote me on that) are much more likely to be injured the following year. Just like pitchers who increase their pitch count by more than 20% from the previous year are more likely to get hurt.
As for your arguement on relief pitchers, they are obviously an entirely different beast. Pitch counts per day are obviously lower, however they can be expected to pitch 2 or even 3 days in a row, which is obviously not in any way comparable to the strain a starter has.
We do, however, completely agree that if a pitchers mechanics or conditioning is not good, then pitch count be damned, something will happen to them.
The only problem is that some people have taken this pitch count
theory to the extreme. They are treating it like it is the single factor in determining whether a pitcher has been overworked or risking injury, but the facts don’t prove it out. If you take the pitch count theory to it’s ultimate extreme, then every pitcher who pitched before about 1985 should have broken down. That is about the time when the pitch counters started to make a lot of noise. Prior to that, pitch counting really wasn’t given much attention. Prior to the pitch count era, pitchers were known to throw 150 pitches in an outing and come back on three days rest and do it again. That kind of blows the 3,000 pitch theory out of the water. The problem is that people kind of forget about those days and take numbers like 3,000 pitches as gospel. Obviously there are other factors besides sheer number of pitches because were able to handle the workload and manage to have some relatively long careers.
Look, I am not advocating going back to the old days of 4-man pitching staffs and 150 pitch outings, but obviously there are forces here other than sheen pitch counts. When these theories come up, a kind of group-think arises and prophesies become self-fulfilling. I just think we need to be a little more careful were throwing around charges of managers ruining pitchers because they allow them to throw 110 pitches in a game as opposed to 100.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 18, 2010 1:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Here's the difference between the eras.
When pitchers threw that many pitches, they held some of their best stuff back for the later innings. Now they go all-out from pitch 1, knowing they’re going to be taken out in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings when they reach the magic count.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yep
Just a thought that crossed my mind-do you think that attitude of holding back may have changed in correlation with the steroid era type hitting? That it became more necessary to go all out with the pitching because of that?
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
Completely agree...
…and strongly feel there is way too much emphasis put on this. Many other variables involved in why a pitcher gets hurt, and history has proven it’s much more than just number of pitches thrown.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
It seems baseball on a whole disagrees with you
As only 1.5% of all starters throw 120 pitches or more. 71 games in 2008 vs. 454 games in 2000.
Numbers dont just happen to drop that dramatically, obviously it was decided it had a major impact.
Just because the pitch counts dropped, it doesn't mean that the number of injuries
have dropped. There are varying opinions on how much pitch counts affect those numbers. it really depends on where the stress point for a given pitcher is. For some it may be 80 pitches, for some it may be 100 pitches and for some it may be 120 pitches.
Many experts believe that reducing work loads for pitchers may be having the opposite effect. Some believe that pitchers need to do more buildup work to prepare their bodies for the rigors of major league pitching. This type of work includes more long toss and side sessions at reduced stress levels to build up strength. Unfortunately, this type of work has be reduced as pitch counts have come down. Many teams feel that they are protecting valueable assets by reducing workloads, but they actually may be causing their pitchers to break down by not preparing them properly for the grind of major league pitching.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Way more to it...
…than what you state, and there are a variety of factors why guys get hurt.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I understand that, and if you read anything else I write
I clearly state my opinion that mechanics and conditioning are MORE important than pitch count, BUT, you cannot discount that pitch counts have some effect.
How many Cubs pitchers got hurt last year?
Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid.
- John Wayne
Oh be careful..
the pitch count police of this site will tar and feather you.
I couldn’t agree with you more, but there are those here that think injuries to pitchers can be predicted by 1 number, mechanics and type of pitches be damned.
The journey is the reward!
read the link I supplied above.
Obviously it is more than once factor, but how can you possibly discount that pitch count is a MAJOR influence on it?
I have to boldly predict (and possibly inaccurately)
that the Bucs will post a fairly improved record and look like a better team altogether. I really think they addressed some needs and at the same time, as Al mentioned, they have some young talent.
Not a winning season…but a better season and potential for improvement beyond 2010.
Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?
The Cards just got on a hot streak last year.
From what I remember, they were only around .500 at the all star break. Even with their good piching they were just as bad as the Cubs at that time. Then they got Derosa, Hugo, and Holliday. Holliday was a hitting beast and the Cards got on a crazy winning streak. By the end of the season, they were losing again and it continued in the Holliday-ball busting-playoffs. With the 50+ game Aramis missed, all the games our starters missed, Miles-Gregg-Heilman-Bradley, and down years from some of the players, all happening; I think if someof those went right surely the Cubs could have won 8 or 9 games to over turn the 7.5 games back and win the division. What I’m trying to say is I think the Cards will be good,but not as good as everyone thinks, and I expect the Cubs to be better than everyone thinks. Someone please pass the kool aid.
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality." John Lennon
by Cubbiegoon on Mar 17, 2010 9:54 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
At least you and I will get to drink it together.
I completely agree with everything you say.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
make that 3 Kool-Aides...
Despite the doom and gloom predictions of some I think our guys will have a much better year that anyone thinks…
"Why people who have not committed any punishable offense, listen to Country and Western music is absolutely beyond me" - John Cleese
4 glasses please
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Mar 18, 2010 1:58 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Didn't Holliday & St. Albert...
…go for a combined 3-30 in that playoff series?
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
Yeah, sounds vaguely familiar, doesn't it?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Too many right handed bats, probably :-O
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
I agree
The Cards are a good team, but they didn’t dominate last year and they won’t dominate this year. It’s a two-team division — the Cards and the Cubs. No one else comes close.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 17, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
I will say, the only other team I'm wary of is Cincy.
They have a lot of potential, and a few veterans that play the right way. injuries and off years for a few key guys killed them. Keep an eye out.
The Brewers' offense is pretty solid.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 17, 2010 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
eh. It's ok.
and their pitching is eh too. At worst, it’s a three-way race, but I don’t think the Brewers will be able to sustain.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 17, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Their pitching is definitely a question mark
It was a disaster last year. The starting pitching is going to be improved for certain, but how good remains unclear.
I think Hawkins is a decent, unheraleded pick up in the ’pen, unless Hoffman gets hurt and they are foolish enough to try him as the closer.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 17, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Yup I agree
No need for this chicken little the sky is falling nonsense…Ill buy the next round of kool-aid.
by BadDecisions on Mar 17, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Good assessment.
Stop wringing your hands over the Cards and turn this green.
"I'm not much of a chemistry guy. Chemistry to me is a pinch-hit double with the bases loaded." -Jim Frey
Green'ed. Very well said, Cubbiegoon. I agree with everything you said.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
Thanks for this post, Al.
I like how you went team-by-team to look at things we may have missed. Most of the time, I don’t even notice these moves by the teams in the division, so this post is great and it fills in the gaps about those teams.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 9:54 AM CDT reply actions
This is a very interesting division.
I believe aside from the Pirates all the teams are more-less matched—and the Pirates will start annoying people soon enough. If the Pirates somehow manage to get a quality starter, they could be looking at a winning season. I hate how the Cubs may not win 13 out of 18 games per season from them anymore and be their little slump-busters.
If the Reds make the playoffs, [fill in the blank by making me do something I’d hate]. That’s how confident I am they won’t make it. On the other hand, they have Aaron Miles and could win 160 games…
Houston is Valverde-less. Oh joy. But they still have Pence, Berkman, El Caballo and Oswalt. A very dislikable team but not necessarily punch-less.
I don’t have the time right now to look at the stats, but I believe Randy Wolf owns the Cubs one season, and is owned the next. I do recall how dominant he was last year. But I also recall how dominated he was in 2008. I was at Wrigley at a Padres-Cubs game in May 2008 and he got pounded. I also recall an outing in San Diego where the Cubs got the rare win there against him. I hope the trend continues, because Doug Davis will baffle the Cubs yet for another season.
And what can be said about the Birds that hasn’t already been said? Oh yeah, that I don’t like them one bit.
Uh-oh.
Arrr, da graybar! How you be, matey?
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Aye be doing well, getting ready for meal at noon
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
aaarrrrr Silva me timbers, aaarrrr
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Mar 18, 2010 2:03 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think the Pirates have improved much
and I don’t think they have all that much young talent, but I don’t think their problem this year is starting pitching. None of them are great, but Maholm and Duke are good pitchers. Ohlendorf didn’t do badly and could be good too. Morton is very talented and wasn’t all that bad and could be their best pitcher. I’m blanking on their fifth guy, but that’s a nice start.
"...it'll be another year of seeing whether Aaron Harang's arm can fall off."
And he’s not happy about it.
by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 17, 2010 10:19 AM CDT reply actions
the snake looks alert
"...to the home of the brave, the land of the free, and the dooooooooormat of the National League." -Steve Goodman
I think the resemblance is uncanny
by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 17, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I thought he looked like Herman Munster until I saw that picture above.
"Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air."-Pat Hughes
Who's the little guy with Durocher?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Herman could rake!!!
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
He was on Monster 'roids lol
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
Regarding the Cardinals Rotation
Maybe im drinking the Cubbie Kool-Aid too much.
But the 3 – 5 starters of the Cards dont really scare me all that much. In fact I believe that the Cubs rotation even when stacked up against the Cards is certainly deeper then St. Louis.
And the reason for that is 3 – 5 For the Cubs projects to be: Dempster, Wells, Gorzo/Marshall
Now call me crazy but I think that the first two listed are head and shoulders above Lohse and Penny.
Ultimately the “ace” in the hole for the Cubs is going to be the performance of Randy Wells.
No cheating here but check out these lines of two pitchers:
Which one would you rather have? Based on 2009 Stats
Pitcher A:
13 – 10 3.84 era 33 games 213.2 innings 222 hits 27 hr 45 bb 105 ks 1.25 whip
Pitcher B:
12 – 10 3.05 era 27 games 165.1 ip 165 hits 14 hr 46 bb 104 ks 1.27 whip
granted A has more games played, but in fewer games Pitcher B has nearly identical states and few homers given up.
In case your wondering who I’m comparing here:
Pitcher A is: Mark Buehrle
Pitcher B is: Randy Wells
So while St. Louis may have us beat 1- 2 in the rotation, The Cubs far and away have a better 3-5 then the Cards. Folks it pretty much is going to hinge at least in the rotation on how well Randy Wells does in the #4 spot.
This is pretty much the only reason the Cubs have a chance this year
And you didn’t mention that Carpenter has a minor history of injuries (sarcasm). If he goes down for any amount of time, the odds go to the Cubs tenfold.
1-8 the Cubs match up pretty well with the Cards (well 1-7, 9 for the Cards). It comes down to Soto and Soriano IMO. But I think Lee/Ramirez/Byrd is just as formidable as Holliday/Pujols or Pujols/Holliday
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Mar 17, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the Pirates are going to surprise some
And if Oswalt returns to form and Wandy Rodriguez has a good year, those two could be the best 1-2 starters in the division. Not saying it will happen. I’d put Wainright/Carpenter and Z/Lilly ahead of them now. But it could.
Thank the baseball gods for people like Ned Yost, Ed Wade, Dusty Baker, and the Pittsburgh Pirates. They counterbalance Mr. Pujols….until we sign him after next year.
I’d love to do another poll/contest for picking the division ranks and playoffs/WS winners, something similar to the FA contest. Just an idea
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
While we are at it
Can we not mention the Pirates or Astros in the same sentence as division winners.
I dont care how good 50 games+ of Andrew McCutchen was or if Oswalt is going to come back healthy (he did after all have 16 no decisions last year) Those two clubs are not doing anything this year.
That's true, they don't have Kenny Williams as their GM.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 17, 2010 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Nearly 2000 words...
… and all i can remember is “snacks”.
God this division is mediocre this year. Anybody predicting the Cubs finish 4th should be forced to root for the Brewers for the season.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
All I can remember
Is that Pittsburgh has some guy named Crosby playing for them. Any relation?
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
While it pains me...
to have to look at a picture of a Cardinal on my people’s day, good post nonetheless Al. :)
And to everyone — but especially those of us who were born lucky and blessed with ties to the Emerald Isle — Happy St. Patricks Day!
Erin Go Bragh and Slainte!
by CubsWin!Oregon on Mar 17, 2010 12:11 PM CDT reply actions
The dictionary defines it as a self-appointed arbiter of the rules. The key being self-appointed. It's usually
someone who takes it upon himself to meddle in affairs and try to settle disputes etc. This person generally makes the situation much worse and causes further disputes and back-biting among members of the clubhouse. This individual is usually unhappy with the current power structure within the clubhouse and seeks to undermine the authority in place. This is not an individual you would want on your team.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah
So Al wasn’t trying to cast aspersions on my future profession then. Okay.
The Rivalry, Esq. - Judging the Big 10 since 2008
Predictions
1. Cardinals — 100 wins
2. Cincinnati
3. Milwaukee
4. Cubs — 75 wins
The sleeper team of the Natinoal League is Milwaukee in my view. Pitching coach Rick Peterson is going to have a nice impact, Rickie Weeks is one of these days going to reach his potential, and Alcides Escobar is the most exciting thing to hit the shortstop position since Hanley Ramirez.
You can now shoot the messenger as is par for the course at BCB. I don’t give a rat’s ass.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
by BLou on Mar 17, 2010 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
We know you don't give a rat's ass, that was superfluous information. Suffice it to say, I don't agree
with your predictions. The Cardinals may very well win the division, but I don’t see 100 wins coming from that pitching staff. 100 wins implies that they will run away with the division and the competition within the division is much to close for that to happen. This current Cubs team seems to be improved over last year’s and with a little injury luck the should at least match last years total of 85 wins. The Cubs will battle it out with the Reds and the Brewers for most of the season, but I see them pulling away slightly from these two teams as the season ends.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
If any team wins 100 games in the central, I will donate $50 to the charity of your choice, BLou
It just isn’t going to happen.
Shoot the messenger?
That would imply these deranged thoughts come from some else other than you. Idiom fail.
"75 wins is optimistic with this staff. Optimistic." and "Cubs are looking at 4th place in 2010." BLou, March 17, 2010.
by BleedsbluinMI on Mar 17, 2010 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 17, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
And with that, you should leave.
75 wins, in fourth place? Jump off the ledge, please.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Why are all of you even responding?
You know what he’s going to say.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It's like when you're driving down the highway and you see an accident. No matter
how much you try not to, you just gotta take a look.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
it's, because if anyone
is perpetuating the stereotype of the Cubs being “luvable lusers”, it’s… that guy.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 17, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
ahem.
“it’s funny, because”
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 17, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Luvable? Like a pit bull is luvable?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
BLou - charter member of the Heman Women Haters Club.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Guess he wasn't getting enough attention in whatever is going on over there in the FanPost he's got going.
Just when i thought i’d avoid him. Its the plague.
FOILED AGAIN. DAMN YOU, BLOU. DAMN YOU!
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Mar 17, 2010 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Pitching coach Rick Peterson is going to have a nice impact, Rickie Weeks is one of these days going to reach his potential, and Alcides Escobar is the most exciting thing to hit the shortstop position since Hanley Ramirez.
but Rudy Jaramillo is going to have no impact, Fukudome will never reach his potential, and Aramis Ramirez, Soriano, Lee, Lilly, Z, Dempster, Riot and Soto will all have down years, right?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 17, 2010 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course. We have all of the ifs and the have all of the gottabes.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Rickie Weeks will ever reach his potential
He just doesn’t know what he is doing when he gets up to the plate. At least not as well as he should.
I also don’t think that Cincy will sniff 2nd.
"You’re playing a baseball game. You’re not playing Tiddlywinks. There is competition, for God’s sake."— Lou Piniella
Weeks did well last season?
Sure, if you call getting hurt and missing 70% of the season “doing pretty well”.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Contradict one fact that I posted above your post.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
...
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Mar 17, 2010 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Johnnie Drama - my man!
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I like his brother :)
"Nady and his weak beard steps in" --Cubbie-Tim on Mar 12, 2010 9:53 PM
by cooliogirl47 on Mar 17, 2010 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
one of the best Matt Dillon movies....Employee of the Month
(not to be confused with Jessica Simpson one)
"Nady and his weak beard steps in" --Cubbie-Tim on Mar 12, 2010 9:53 PM
by cooliogirl47 on Mar 17, 2010 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Until he got hurt he was having a monster year. He will have to carry the load along
with Prince and Braun because they don’t have much else.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't call an .857 OPS in 37 games "monster".
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
No, but if you project out his number over the whole season, he was doing pretty well. It
was a monster season for Weeks.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, he would have had a .857 OPS.
He had 9 HR — that’s the only “monster” I see.
In 2006, the Tigers’ Chris Shelton had nine HR in his first 13 games. He wound up with 16.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Al, I said monster for Weeks. It's all relative.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Off the top of my head
I’d think his OPS would be behind Chase Utley, maybe Cano… I’m sure I’m forgetting somebody, but still among the best.
yeah,
but the brewers need him to be a monster for MONTHS.
SWIDT? :P
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Mar 17, 2010 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Cute.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Except Weeks has never come close to playing a whole season
Since 2005, his games played have been 96, 95, 118, 129 and 37.
Could have done that with Micah Hoffpauir's first month too
But I think extrapolation was proven faulty on that one.
"You’re playing a baseball game. You’re not playing Tiddlywinks. There is competition, for God’s sake."— Lou Piniella
Rickie Weeks and the Hoff. I’m going to go out on a narrow branch and say that’s not a very good comparison.
Certainly isn't
But a month’s worth of numbers extrapolated doesn’t take into account who the producer is. It’s still a series of abbreviated statistics.
"You’re playing a baseball game. You’re not playing Tiddlywinks. There is competition, for God’s sake."— Lou Piniella
by PacificCub on Mar 18, 2010 10:39 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Adam Greenberg was an OBP machine!!! ;-)
btw, anyone know where he is these days? baseball-reference has him last with the Angels organization in 2008. Thought I heard he was in independent ball somewhere last year.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I vaguely recall...
…someone here saying that Greenberg was playing for a New England-based independent league team and selling, like, life insurance or something on the side.
by dat cubfan daver on Mar 18, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
He played for the Blueport Bluefish of the Atlantic League in 2009...
… after not making the Reds minor league system out of spring training.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
In the minor leagues,
Do the players get any sort of stipend for playing?
I seem to remember someone telling me the answer to that question at some point. I also remember that the pay isn’t great, so it makes sense if a lot of the ballplayers do get a second job to help earn some extra money.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
The Atlantic League is an independent league...
… I don’t know what their rules are about per diems, nor salaries. They can’t be very large.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I believe sponsors of teams often try to get the players jobs...
… in Des Moines, the local sponsor of of the PDL team hires players to work in their convenience stores (called “Kum and Go”). I’ve gotten the impression this isn’t unusual.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Mar 18, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Come on BLou
I agree with you that the 2010 Cubs team has issues, but the Cubs are the 2nd best team in the division without question. Almost all of the projections have the Cubs 2nd (projected to win about 84-86 wins), I’ve seen only one that projects the Cubs as worse than 2nd place.
Milwaukee has serious issues with their pitching staff even beyond Cub killers Davis and Wolf. The Reds need to have breakout years from several players (not named Phillips or Votto) and there starting pitching staff is full of many more question marks than the Cubs starting pitching staff.
The Cardinals couldn't win 100 games this year
Even if everyone in their lineup had career years. It’s just not going to happen.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions
uh...
pujols, holliday and luddy career years (WAR of 9.1, 8.0, 5.7 from fangraphs) plus waino, carp and penny (5.7, 6.8, 4.3) would net you 39.6 wins. a replacement level NL team is 47.4 wins which means the cardinals top 6 would get you 87 wins by themselves… i’m pretty sure the other 19 guys having career years could get the last 13 wins.
for comparison aram, lee, sori career years (5.1, 7.5, 5.6) and Z, demp and lilly (4.9, 5.1, 3.7) would only net you 31.9 wins for a total of 79.3 wins
oh and this shocked even me… julio lugo’s career year was a 4.7 WAR.
That's baseball, and it's my game. Y' know, you take your worries to the game, and you leave 'em there. You yell like crazy for your guys. It's good for your lungs, gives you a lift, and nobody calls the cops. Pretty girls, lots of 'em. ~Humphrey Bogart
No, really, you don't say!
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Mar 18, 2010 2:10 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Predictions
Cardinals 90 wins Will be just good enough…..
Brewers 85 wins Pitching has to improve….
Reds 83 wins Good young talent, but an ass as a manger…..will it work out?
Cubs 81 wins Good at 3b,1b, decent in CF, C will be fine. Theriot will be a 2b by the end of the season and the Castro era will have begun…..Below avg. in LF and RF and the bullpen may completely implode. Z has to come up big, Wells has to be for real, and Lilly needs to come back strong…….Lou needs to be awake……Lots of ifs…….
I hope I am wrong.
Astros 72 wins getting real old real quick.
Pirates 70 wins they have a way of finding last place.
I don't think...
…the division will have 4 teams with more than 80 wins, but I can see a possibility your order of finish is accurate.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
The division had four teams...
.. with 78 or more wins last year, so four with 80+ isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Certainly...
…it’s possible, I just don’t think it will happen this year.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Put the Cubs at 85-90 wins and move the Reds to .500 and I think that is about right
On paper Cubs, Deadbirds and Suds are about even. Though injuries and mid-season moves will change that.
I think our starting pitching will be close to last year and without Patton (who was on the 25 man roster for quite a bit of the first half of the season), Heilman and Gregg, I think the bullpen will be deeper and better than you think. With Soto, Rami and Fonzi even 20% better and healthy, I agree that the hitting will be much better (no dead-weight Miles).
"...to the home of the brave, the land of the free, and the dooooooooormat of the National League." -Steve Goodman
I completely agree.
Your predictions for this year’s team and my predictions are just about the same. I’m also guessing at 85-90 wins.
I know we only won 83 games last year, but that was with Miles, Heilman, Gregg, and MB on the team. This year, all those players are gone.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
"...and the preening Ryan Braun,"
I had to pull out my American Heritage dictionary to find out what preening meant since I do not recall ever using that word myself.
1. To smooth or clean (feathers) with the beak or bill. 2. To adorn or trim (oneself) carefully; primp. 3. To take pride or satisfaction in (oneself); i.e, “preening themselves on having won another victory”.
Since Braun has no feathers that I know of and is adorned and trimmed with the standard uniforn on the field when he plays, I believe Al probably felt definition No. 3 justly described the antics of Mr. Braun.
Although it would be fun to watch him clean himself on the field during the game even if he doesn’t have a beak or feathers.
My admiration of Al’s wordsmithing grows daily.
Thanks.
Although, watching Braun preen around wearing feathers would be entertaining.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Maybe it's best not to go there
That’s the stuff of nightmares.
by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 17, 2010 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I knew that definition of preening would bring on a flurry of images. SWL, front and center!
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Mar 18, 2010 2:26 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
My thoughts on this aren't particularly original.
Going in, I’d put the Cardinals at the top, the Cubs and Brewers relatively close behind, the Reds in the middle, and the Astros and Pirates bringing up the rear. But so much can change depending on injuries, guys coming out of nowhere, etc. I’m looking forward to a competitive regular season.
by dat cubfan daver on Mar 17, 2010 3:20 PM CDT reply actions
Is my memory failing me?
Well, it is, but specific to your thoughts there – didn’t you have the Brewers out of it and not competing?
Me?
No, I don’t believe I’ve ever stated that. (And if you care to point me to the comment, I’d gladly explain it.) I’ve actually been saying your team is a cause for concern because Braun and Prince are still a fearsome 3-4 and Wolf & Davis could do a lot to stabilize your rotation.
by dat cubfan daver on Mar 18, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Someone said it above
But the division, on paper, is very mediocre. Leaving aside the Cubs for a moment, my thoughts on the rest and their chances this season:
Cardinals – The on-paper favorite, the team also has a very small margin for error. With one of the worst systems in the game, their ability to make changes at midseason will be limited to a large degree. There’s some stopgap pieces in the system, but they will need to rely on Dave Duncan to get the most out of the pitching staff, and for the guys to stay healthy. But if healthy, they are the clear favorites. Carpenter and Wainwright is a great combination, and the back three has some potential to be decent enough. Yes, I’m sure Cubs fans get a good chuckle seeing Rich Hill as an option for the 5th job (although I think Jamie Garcia wins it). What they need is for the top 2 to stay healthy, and for 3-5 to work enough innings so the pen is fresh. I really like Garcia to potentially develop into a very solid mid-end of the rotation lefty, and maybe soon.
The pen is a bit of a question mark, although I still think they will move McClellan back to the pen when all is said and done. They key thing may be if Jason Motte develops. They gave up some other young pen arms, with Mottre remaining (may speak more to what other teams wanted). The lineup should be solid. They’ve got to stay healthy, though. I’d guess that this team is in the low 90’s, good enough to win in a bad division.
Houston Astros – Drayton McLane doesn’t rebuild. While Ed Wade is a bad GM, I’d hardly point to the fact that the team was in the playoffs a few years ago, and their failure to get back there, as the reason why Ed is a poor GM. Poor contracts and trade decisions are bigger reasons why I think he’s a bad GM. Drayton’s unwillingness to rebuild handcuffed the previous administration (off the top, slipping me, but I want to say Purpura?), and the team was an aging, older group that had little in terms of farm assets a couple years ago.
That said, if this team gets hot, watch out. I think people want to write off the Astros, and it’s entirely possible they flame out and slump in the 2nd half, perhaps with their age catching up. Wandy Rodriguez is a very good pitcher. He was muddling along until a few years ago, when things really started coming together for him. His control tightened up, his curveball took big steps forward, and his fastball consistency was significantly improved. He’s more than a mid-rotation lefty. Not an ace, but a solid number 2 lefty, at least, based on stuff on performance. He gets enough ground balls to go with his K’s that he has become lethal. He was a 4 WAR pitcher last year, too lazy to check VORP but pretty sure it was good, and FIP/xFIP has been trending upwards for several years now. Is he likely to get better than this? Probably not (although if he gets his changeup to get better … watch out). That said, while he’s been hit around a bit this spring, I have a hard time thinking he’s going to collapse. It’s somewhat the same situation as how other teams view Ryan Dempster – Ryan and Wandy have put together solid campaigns for a couple years now that I’ll bet on them doing well if I had to.
Okay, that went longer than I thought, as I think Wandy doesn’t get enough credit. They don’t need Roy Oswalt to carry the team anymore. They just need him to be solid. Beyond that, the back of the rotation is more promising than it has been in recent years. Now, they haven’t decided on the back two, but while Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino aren’t sure things, they are the type of young arms that could surprise some early in their careers. Both are hard throwers with good fastballs and one solid secondary pitch. Both have some control and long ball concerns that are certainly exacerbated by the park they play in.
I think they wasted a bit too much on the pen this offseason, but they should have the pieces to have a decent pen (and if Norris or Paulino don’t make the rotation, one of them could go to the pen and anchor things if they get it going. The lineup’s going to be a streaky bastard if it’s a positive situation for them (or the lineup could completely collapse if Bourn/Matsui don’t get on enough to make a difference).
Okay, the X factor might be … their system . No, their system isn’t good. A case could be made that St. Louis’ depth in average pieces makes it a better system than Houston’s (I wouldn’t agree, but a case could be made). That said, they have some pen arms that could help, but more importantly, in Jason Castro/Jordan Lyles/Jiovanni Mier, they have 3 good (albeit, not great) assets that, if they really were close, might be able to net them some help. Something to keep in mind if they are hanging around.
Overall, I’ll guess low-mid 80’s wins for the Astros.
Milwaukee Brewers – Honestly I like this squad, but I think it’s getting a tad overhyped right now, perhaps based on recent history. This is a lineup with two good hitters. Yes, I said two. After that, it’s a bunch of question marks. But outside of Braun/Fielder, none of the other guys should be viewed as good hitters yet. Weeks? Show me consistency before I buy it. Not saying he’s bad … but Corey Patterson had a good half season before (I think he’s better than Corey, point being let’s see him repeat it again). Casey McGehee? I wish you the best, but I have high doubts that you are the hitter that you were last year. Corey Hart – can you stop your 3 year tumble? Alcides should probably be decent enough offensively that his plus glove will more than make up for it.
As for the pitching staff? Two Cub killers, perhaps, but Randy Wolf is a nice mid-rotation starter and Doug Davis is more of an end of the rotation arm. I think Rick can probably help them. Actually, the intriguing guy to me is still Manny Parra. After all his issues last year, Rick Peterson’s hiring may do him wonders. Can he beat out Chris Narveson/Jeff Suppan/David Bush for a spot? Will be interesting. In saying all this, I do expect them to have a solid, much improved rotation. The pen should be a solid enough group if they can stay healthy.
This is, though, really a team in transition. The system’s strong, but it’s all lower down, where they have a nice collection of young arms that may cause the Cubs problems for the next decade if they develop. With Mat Gamel hanging around, a bunch of young ars, and some solid secondary pitches, they should be able to pull off a trade if they want to. I’ll peg them at the same place I put the Astros, low-mid 80’s in terms of wins.
Cincinnati Reds – A lot of love for Dusty Baker’s squad, and I can understand why. That said, for all the talk about their young pitching, could someone please step forward? Cueto has huge talent, but his slider was weaker last year and he still doesn’t utilize the change enough. Volquez had surgery in August – how much can we expect? Homer Bailey’s raw ability that was seen 3-4 years ago simply hasn’t translated and he looks like your hard-throwing inconsistent end of the rotation starter. Can any of them step up? Arroyo is his usual, innings working, inconsistent self, and Harang isn’t the guy he was in 2006/2007, and he’s really more a nice 3, decent 2. Add in the expect workload … and really, this staff worries me a lot. Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised that, if given the opportunity, someone like Matt Maloney couldn’t be more consistent than some of their higher profile arms. I’m not ready to think that Aroldis will dominate when all suggestions are that his secondary stuff needs time. I know he’s looked good so far, but not ready to think he can anchor the staff.
Then we get to the offense. I think the lineup will be good … but great? Don’t know, and I wonder if their lineup needs to be great to carry an inconsistent pitching staff. Joey Votto is good, and arguably, underrated. Brandon Phillips has setteld down from his 2007 high. Still solid for the position. Jay Bruce has too much talent and had too much bad luck for me to not think that he won’t breakthrough in 2010 with a big year. Rolen is a shell of his former self, but still capable enough. Stubbs should provide a good glove and Stubbs/Gomes will both likely be streaky guys.
The pen should be capable. It’s the rotation that bothers me. The system could be a big help. Assets like Yonder Alonso/Todd Frazier/Mike Leake/Chris Heisey could all be guys that could factor into the big league picture, or be trade bait. There’s some decent starting arms that could step in if something happens. Some raw assets lower provide them with some “upside” chips to play with. The rotation worries me, and this is a team where I have a much wider range prediction, anywhere from mid-70’s to mid-80’s.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Neal Huntington has been given rope, and he has them headed the right direction. They had a fabulous draft, adding good assets into the system, but most are several years away (the main exception could be Tony Sanchez, who could get a look late this year if all goes well). The big league squad has been retooled. They took a good gamble on garrett Jones last year. The addition of Iwamura and the gamble on Clement were positive moves. Zach Duke seems to be bouncing back from some down years to becoming a respectable mid-end of the rotation lefty. Paul Maholm is their best starter and is a solid mid rotation lefty. Ohlendorf is an innings working end of the rotation arm. Think a better Justin Berg. I’m intrigued with Charlie Morton, who they got from Atlanta. McCutchen looks like a great building block.
Look, here’s the thing. Barring a surprising year, if they are out of it at midseason, this team will likely sell. Guys like Maholm/Duke could be sought after. Making a guess on their win total is pointless because of this possibility. Sufficed it to say, I think they bring up the rear … but that things are headed in the right direction.
by toonsterwu on Mar 17, 2010 3:22 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee6/ccwolfe75/new/1deergod.jpg
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 17, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
and also...
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 17, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Could have easily been a FanPost, too.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m intrigued with Charlie Morton
You really, really shouldn’t be. Trust me on this.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
for an end of the rotation arm?
why not? there’s always been enough raw stuff there to think that he could start.
$2.50 to print tix at home?
Is this something new? Thank you Cubs for charging me to use my paper and ink to print Cubs tickets.
I bought a bleacher seat for $18 for 4.18 against the Astros and ended up spending $31 after the bs, what the f?
I had to complain somewhere, thank you.
T
Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air...
I always recommend people use will-call.
Costs nothing.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Aré the lines short?
If there are long lines maybe it’s better to print the tickets or have them mailed.
by Fraggin Judge on Mar 17, 2010 5:55 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
very short actually
the longest wait ive ever had is maybe 5 minutes
"God watches over drunks and third baseman."- Leo Durocher
by BelieveinBlue2314 on Mar 17, 2010 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Or purchase at...
…the box office if you’re able. It’s great.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
Does it cost anything besides the price of the ticket to have the tickets mailed to you?
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions
No.
Like Al said, it’s free. If there was a chance I’d be in Chicago during the season, I’d probably have them mailed to me. That said, if I lived in the locality I prefer dealing directly with the box office — no problems with the mail, no ticket mix-ups, no sight issues related to bad seats.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
In the past few years
I’ve gotten my Cubs tickets through a friend that has season tickets, so they have always just given them to me.
I honestly was in a rush and didn’t realize the fee until after I had bought them, it is just odd because they are motivating people to use will-call which requires them to have more employees working. But I guess there are idiots like me that will still pay it, even if it is accidental.
Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air...
You can also select to have the Cubs mail the tickets to you.
That’s what I did when I got tickets to Wrigley Field in July.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Inconsequential Correction, But..
the Cardinals were 91-71 in 2009 during the regular season.
(Not serious in the least) Al, you ought to be tarred and feathered for giving the Cardinals two extra wins in 2009.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
I dunno about tarred & feathered.
Surprised it took people eight hours to find this. I’ll fix it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Reds are going to be good
I said that LAST year and it did not work out , but I am going with it again. I think it is going
to be a split division with the Cubs, Cards & Reds fighting for the top and Pirates, Astros and Brewers behind. In fairness the Brewers will be a lot better than the other two, but very questionable pitching to help their potent offense.
GREETINGS FROM THE SCOTTSDALE LIBRARY
(no laptop to travel with)
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
I still don't think the Reds are ready
although if Rolen hits better and Votto continues his great hitting, they have a small chance. Dusty Baker just doesn’t manage his pitchers very effectively, imo. And I just don’t see them having much of an offense outside of Votto.
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2010 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I think it’s going to be a two-team race between the Cubs and Cardinals. The Reds? As you point out, they don’t have much in the way of offense, and Dusty often overuses his pitchers. However, I believe Milwaukee will finish ahead of Cincinnati, but not by much. The Brewers have some gaping holes in their starting rotation. Their pitchers might not be able to pick up the load and carry the team.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions
There are questions regarding their pitching staff,
Essentially anyone aside from Randy Wolf and Doug Davis.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
True,
But the questions surrounding the Brewers’ pitching staff are bigger than the questions about the pitching staffs of, say, the Cubs and Cardinals.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Jeff Suppan, Chris Narveson, Dave Bush, LaTroy Hawkins, ...
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I can say that it seems everyone has forgot about Gallardo.
That’s one fewer question mark. Gallardo at the top with Davis and Wolf. Thats not horrible. After that, yeah, pretty big holes.
As you said, I forgot about him,
But I’ll take your word for it.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
He's definitely not someone to ignore.
Gallardo is their No. 1 and a really good, young pitcher.
by dat cubfan daver on Mar 18, 2010 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
damn
I totally forgot about Gallardo, I’m an idiot. that makes their starting pitching much much better
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
That's 3 guys who are competing for 5th starter
and a reliever. They have too many good relievers. They’re going to have good arms stashed in the minors. Hawkins could be out for the season tomorrow and it might mean they’re better. I hope like hell Narveson gets a starting role. Unfortunately Suppan has a corpulent contract and for whatever reason the org loves Bush. Nothing there is a gaping hole.
While that may be true,
None of those guys scare me. I think the Cubs can handle them.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh I'm so sorry.
I should have realized you wouldn’t understand this. I guess, since you didn’t appear to continue this conversation, that I could do something like that.
If you like, I could, in future, abide by a series of pre-determined guidelines which conform to the “Ol Pete” rules, which means I would have to obtain your pre-approval for posts, expressions, phrases, links, and quotes.
I shall try to be more accommodating in the future.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
What about Jay Bruce?
Don’t you think his time has come?
by dat cubfan daver on Mar 18, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm starting to think that he's a dud
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
hello fellow Chicagoans (and Happy St. Pats Day)
here’s my take…. I think the Cubs will be chasing either the Braves or if the Phillies suffer some injuries, the Phillies, for the wild card. I really don’t see Randy Wolf helping the Brewcrew out enough to make them a contender. They would have to have career years from both Braun and Fielder in order to compete with the Cubs. granted, the Cubs need to have Wells duplicate his performance from last year, and have Soto return to form (I think he will). Derek Lee probably won’t be quite as good last year, but he is very reliable. My main worry would be Aramis Ramirez, if that shoulder is ok then the Cubs are in the hunt. I think their starting pitching is still pretty solid, unless Big Z’s tinkering with his delivery will not work out. lot of ifs for the Cubs, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
As for the Cards, they are in a similar situation but have more offensive firepower in Pujols and Holliday than just about any club in the big leagues. If Ludwick hits like he did in ‘08, the Cards will probably run away with the division. Not to mention, sophomore Colby Rasmus looks to have a lot of power in his bat, his home runs averaged around 450’ feet, and he’s one of the smoothest center fielders in the game (dude has enough speed to make it look easy out there). I think the hitting will be fine unless McGwire screws up and is not a good coach. Which I think is a much more interesting story than the steroids thing, when he played I think over half the players were on the roids.
Pitching will be a big ? for the Cards…. Carpenter will make every Cards fan nervous whenever he starts, he has not had a good injury history. Wainwright probably won’t be quite as good as he was last year, but maybe he’s coming into his own now, this will be his 4th year as a starter. Bigger questions are whether or not Brad Penny is any good (he can be very good at times, other times he is probably sub-major league level if you look at his career it is all over the place). Kyle Lohse was injured a lot last season, so if he can return to his 2008 form which he got paid well for, he will be very valuable. I’m sure what would piss you all off the most is if Rich Hill returns with some control, and is the Cardinals’ third starting pitcher with a devastating curveball, it would be just about unheard of if that happens, I can’t think of any team that has had curveball pitchers like Carpenter/Wainwright/Hill in their starting rotation. All three of them have a nasty nasty uncle charley. If he still can’t throw strikes though, he will be in the minors. The cards then would have to go to either McClellan (who I think should remain in the bullpen) or Jaime Garcia, one of their top prospects. should Hill not work out, I think Garcia should get the job, but Larussa likes to stick with guys who have been on the major league team, so I think he will hand the job to McClellan, which i’m not real excited about.
The Cards main weakness is the bullpen, I don’t think Ryan Franklin is all that good really, well he’s average I guess. And its main strength is Trevor Miller, he is just a situational lefthanded specialist. should be an interesting year, I think the races in each division in both leagues should be pretty solid.
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2010 7:09 PM CDT reply actions
St. Louis is a damned good ballclub
In fact I’ll go out on a limb and say they will be the best team in the entire National League. They do have some issues, but their strengths are many. If Colby Rasmus takes the next step they are going to have a downright lethal offensive attack to go along with a solid defense and a potentially very good rotation. Carpenter-Wainwright to go along with Pujols-Holliday is going to be awfully, awfully tough for anybody in the NL to counter.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
by BLou on Mar 17, 2010 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Phils are obviously up there too
but how much of their offense relies on being in that ballpark? Halladay is going to destroy the NL
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2010 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Halladay is a 24 carat stud who is going to do monstrous things in the watered down National League
Phillies put up any sort of bullpen and Roy Halladay might win 25 games by September 1st. But that aside I am of the mind that St Louis has surpassed the Phillies. The team that I really like but that gets little love because of the McCourt divorce is the Dodgers. If they can somehow find another starting pitcher, they will be very very good. Matt Kemp is on the verge of explosion. Ditto Clayton Kershaw.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
my dark horse is the Braves
although I’m sure the Dodgers will still be a tough team… I’m thinking the Diamondbacks might do pretty well though
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2010 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Braves will be interesting
Despite their pitching strengths and some deeply impressive youngsters, I’m not at all sold on a broken down Troy Glaus, an ancient Chipper Jones and a very overrated Nate McLouth leading them offensively.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
You may be right about the Braves, that team may be on the cusp
of being really good. Their pitching is top-notch and Bobby Cox will have them right there. Watch out for Jason Heyward. This guy has all of the stuff to be great. He is a dynamite fielder with a rockef for an arm. The guy has sick power and has the makings to be a star.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 17, 2010 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions
true, but I think they will be better than they were last year
and they did well, so…. I may be overrating them, but to me they are clearly the 2nd best team in the AL East, if Glaus and Chipper are not totally toast they will stand a chance for the division. that said, the phils will probably have to sustain some injuries too
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions
At least we agree on the Dodgers
Divorce, shmorshe.
They will be very competitive again with nary a fire sale to be found.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Mar 17, 2010 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I like to pick underdogs
so I’m going to go with the Diamondbacks to win the west
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions
The Giants..
…strike me as quite capable. Provided, of course, that everybody didn’t have an outlier year last season. Get another bat or two, and I think they’ll do quite well for themselves.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
It is.
Zito had a much better second half than he had in previous years, and the bullpen is solid through and through. However, I think Wilson is slightly overrated. Sure, he can throw a 100 mph, but he gets crushed too often.
Oh, and Brad Penny’s gone, but Sanchez looks like he’ll come around to take his spot.
If Buster Posey is the second coming of Mauer, well, then look out. They’ll have a solid middle of the order.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
D-Backs starting pitching looks to be quite good too
especially if Webb is back to his old self (I still die inside a little bit when I hear the name Dan Haren)
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Mark deRosa...
…could inject something into their offense, and Fred Lewis is looking quite good. The Panda’s there, too. Time will tell, but they’re pretty damn close to being something special.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
Pablo Sandoval rulz
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions
What kind of prediction do you have for the final standings?
I personally think that it will be Cubs/Cardinals for most of the year, battling back and forth. Both teams have enough question marks, and I think around 90 wins (which both teams could conceivably reach) may be enough to win the NL Central.
Should be very entertaining to watch unfold.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2010 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it'll be a lot closer than most people are saying
but then again, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Cards win 95 games if they stay healthy
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 12:28 AM CDT up reply actions
People won't be underestimating Cincinnati for very long
The Reds might just have the best and deepest bullpen in baseball right now. Then shfit your attention to the rotation and you see Cueto, Bailey (who is finally starting to tap his very large potential), the kid Leach and perhaps Chapman. Add that to Harang (who was a Rick Reuschel like pitcher before a krummy 2008 and 2009) and inning eater Arroyo. Layer on top of that Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and the unfilled potential of Jay Bruce.
A dangerous team in emerging in Cincinnati. And won’t it sure be a pisser if Dusty Baker gets the last laugh having been ridiculously and unfairly skewered to death in Chicago on account of Jim Hendry handing him over a horseshit roster in 2005 and 2006.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
What happened to Harang?
He was filthy for a couple years (or at least one), then just tanked. Any time something like that happens with a pitcher, I’m usually inclined to say “he’s done.” Maybe being the #3 (or 4 or 5) will take some pressure and innings off him.
I hope not, as a Cubs fan.
"You’re playing a baseball game. You’re not playing Tiddlywinks. There is competition, for God’s sake."— Lou Piniella
Harang might be a strong comeback candidate
He’s never relied on throwing the hard stuff and during his peak was masterful in getting outs, ala Rick Reuschel. Sort of a poor man’s Greg Maddux too. I’ve got to believe that Harang can reacquire what he once was. Unless the arm isn’t right, which I have not heard of.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Dusty Baker tends to overuse his pitchers
not sure if that’s the culprit, but it could be
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2010 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions
That is a load of hoey
I will defend Dusty Baker until my death on the issue of him abusing pitchers. I’m not a Dusty fan by any stretch, but he is ridiculously skewered on this topic.
Funny how Dusty has managed ballclubs for 17 seasons now. Funny also how Dusty had solidly competitive teams in 7 out of 10 years in San Francisco despite having not much more star power than Barry Roid Bonds and Jeff Kent. Or how the esteemed Walt Jocketty seems perfectly content with Dusty being the manager in charge of a highly impressive young stable of pitchers in CIncy.
Dusty did not ruin Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. That is urban legend perpetuated by clueless koolaid drinkers.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
he may have ruined Volquez though
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions
That's a pretty serious charge to throw out there. Do you have any information
on how his mechanics are? How he was used prior to signing with the Reds? What his physiological makeup is? Is he in the proper condition to handle the workload? Before you level a charge like that, you really should have some facts. Some teams limit the pitchers to 100-110 pitches no matter what and the still break down. Who’s guilty of “ruining” them then?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 18, 2010 1:32 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't know about all that
but last night on the broadcast, they relayed the surgeon’s judgement that Volquez’ elbow was the worst that he had ever seen and was basically torn through.
That may be the case, but pitchers shread elbows even when they ae limited on
pitch counts. It just seems to be an easy out. The prevailing opinion seems to be – If a pitcher under Dusty’s care gets an injury, it had to be because Dusty overused him, but if a pitcher under another manager’s care gets an injury, it had to be for some other reason. It’s all very very convienient and it makes it easy to blame Dusty for any pitcher under his care breaking down, but it’s pretty subjective. Throwing a baseball under major league conditions is a completely unnatural act. Many factors are involved and different pitcher’s bodies react different ways. to try to pin onto one factor is stretching things a bit, to say the least.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 18, 2010 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Of course they have significance, but when evaluating why a pitcher is
injured, you have to look at more than one factor. To say that pitcher X is injured because of one of these factors ignores the information needed to determine what happened. It’s become a mantra now, “Dusty pitchers blow up because they throw too many pitches.” is much too simplistic. If all things were equal and only Dusty’s pitchers blew up, then I would buy the argument, but there are just too many pitchers getting injured under the direction of too many other managers to zero into this one fact and claim that it is the reason for pitchers getting injured under Dusty’s control.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 18, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
He had Harang pitch in relief between starts
after which his performance dropped off. He also had some high pitch counts for Homer after their season was over. If he doesn’t abuse pitchers, he walks the fine edge.
17 seasons
And how many WS rings for Dusty? Walt Jocketty became GM after Baker was hired, so he might just be stuck with him if one figures the Reds don’t have enough money to employ two managers. The funny thing about Baker is he got fired from the Cubs after trying to make Corey Patterson a leadoff hitter, then immediately went to the Reds and tried to do the same thing.
Dusty might have not ruined Prior and Wood, but he sure didn’t help matters.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Mar 18, 2010 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions
You might not want to use the World Series argument around here...
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Or anywhere, really. It's just not a good argument.
Jim Leyland has won the W.S. once, and that was when the Marlins spent a boatload of money. Does that mean he wasn’t a good manager before? If he handn’t won in 1997, would that mean he’s not a good manager?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 19, 2010 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Only using it in response
To someomeone who always uses the Cardinals and White Sox WS wins as reasons Cub fans must bow to them.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Mar 19, 2010 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Two things happened to Harang
He threw in 3 games, 2 starts and a 63 pitch relief appearance between May 22 and May 29 of 2008. In the 10 starts after that he had an ERA of 9.06. He ended up on the DL with elbow inflammation. He velocity feel off a bit in 2008, in 2007 his average fastball was 90.1 it dropped to 89.6 in 2008.
Last year he had a nice start, but Dusty had a well Dusty moment in May. There was a rain delay in the 5th inning after Harang recorded two outs. Dusty sent him back out after a lengthy rain delay so he could get the final out. Harang also missed the last month and a half of 2009 due to an appendectomy.
He may not be the ace he was in 2006 and 2007, but he is still a solid starting pitcher who can take care of 200 innings.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
"A dangerous team [is] emerging in Cincinnati."
Is it me, or do we hear this every season? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The Reds have to got to show me something before I start worrying about them. I was pretty high on them last year at this time and, IIRC, they were a nonfactor for almost the entire season. They’ve certainly got the makings of a good team, but that never seems to matter. And I hope it stays that way.
by dat cubfan daver on Mar 18, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Isn't Matt Holliday being paid through the Year 2525?
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Mar 17, 2010 10:46 PM CDT reply actions
if man is still alive. . . .
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
If woman can survive...
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 18, 2010 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Interesting.
Sounds like they’ll be able to offer St. Albert substantially more up front then, and possibly extend the payouts in a similar manner. That might be part of the “home town discount” that sways Pujols.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
Q: Why does Aaron Miles always end up in the NL Central?
Good luck with that one, Dusty…
"...to the home of the brave, the land of the free, and the dooooooooormat of the National League." -Steve Goodman
btw, thanks Al!
I now have a new desktop to annoy my coworkers with
"If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs." -WH
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2010 3:05 PM CDT reply actions
Final NL Central Standings
Cubs — Can’t you just feel it? If you can’t, you will soon.
Cards — Best on paper and on paper Holliday catches that ball in LF.
Brewers — The pitching I could almost forgive if it wasn’t for the terrible D, worse now without Cameron. Should be quite an offensive force.
Reds — Bruce’s development key to their success. Possible great leap forward, but flailing by August more likely.
Astros — Pitching keeps them competative.
Pirates — Thanks for playing.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Mar 18, 2010 9:47 PM CDT reply actions
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