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Opening Day roster appearing "barring trade" hmmm

Tribune: "starting to work its way to a conclusion," manager Lou Piniella said Saturday, Of course, as Piniella says, "assuming we don't do anything" via trade.  So what is it outside the expected 11 position players and 11 pitchers who are seemingly "penned in.  Where are the holes and uncertainties and how will they be filled during the season either through the system or as Piniella alluded to "via trade"?  What kind of trade? Starter, bullpen or infielder?


Star-divide

  • Let's get started: It appears Blanco will either be DL'ed or waived with the odds made that he will pass through and be placed in Iowa as the emergency SS---therefore---Fontenot is the platoon player between shortstop and 2B. This is good as long as no one gets dinged.
  • With Fontenot, this leaves the opening for Millar (or Tracy) but I think Colvin has placed Tracy in Iowa as an insurance policy for Ramirez or DLee, unless he finds a contract somewhere else.Can Millar play the occasional spot time in the OF like Darrel Ward or Micah Hoffpauir?
  • That leaves Colvin who has raised eyebrows and notice by actually doing what players on the cusp need to do in the off season, develop themselves. Colvin might even push Soriano or Fukudome for some playing time. He is better to have on the bench over Fuld simply because he has a real bat and Sam can go to Iowa as another insurance policy.
  • Starting rotation appears to be Gorzelanny (good) and Silva (yikes) until Lilly is full time again. Is there concern regarding Wells? Next start will tell you much, what is his velocity? His movement? His command?  Maddux with Zambrano appears to be the ticket. Lilly of course is the key
  • Bullpen then receives Marshall and an improving Samardzija joining Berg and Al's favorite Caridad as the young right handed arms. The decision is Gaub or Parisi (or Russell or Mateo), how much you want to bet on Parisi to see if they can "Patton" him from the Cardinals. Lot of lefties in the pen.

Okay where are the weaknesses or concerns. Rotation; until Lilly is Ted of the last three years till the All Star Break last year, two bona fides is not enough. Gorzelanny might be a "steal" trade in retrospect. If Silva gives the Cubs 30 IP through mid May for someone Bradley they might be happy. Hiding Silva will be a concern unless Rothschild really has Dusty's dust!  The only solution is the system, Jackson or Cashner unless Samardzija makes the next step. Marshall is a bullpen pitcher.

Next is the middle infield as there might be some moments when the Cubs would like to have a 4th IF'er who can play SS and 2B. Theriot seems to have responded to pressure and his roommate Fontenot is always a hot/cold hitter with amazing pop for a 5'7" player.

Finally the offense will either lead the league in runs or be mirred in the middle depending on Soriano. If Soriano is 2007-2008 Cubs will score runs, if he is 2009, we will either see locker room drama with Nady and Colvin getting AB's and Soriano being sore.

So what would be a trade? A real force in the bullpen? Always. A real platoon SS? A real rotation starter? I want a real starter and either move Silva (somewhere) or Gorzelanny or possibly Wells who is struggling.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I don't believe Colvin will make the team.

He needs regular AB at Iowa, and Lou also seems enamored with Tracy and Millar (I actually like what I’ve seen from Tracy so far, too).

I know the Cubs are scouting just about everyone, but from what I hear, the likelihood of a pre-Opening Day trade is very small.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Mar 21, 2010 11:55 AM CDT reply actions  

Regarding Colvin

since the Cubs say they view him as a starter, I’d think the better he plays the more likely he goes to Iowa to play everyday.

"What a lot of people don’t see is the tremendous amount of progress that has been made in the organization over the last few years. We have a lot of very talented guys coming up through the system. Jim has built an incredible scouting organization." - Tom Ricketts

by DGU on Mar 21, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree

Don’t bring him up here to rot on the bench, when you can someone like Tracy/Millar who can perform well.

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by digitalbenjamin on Mar 22, 2010 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting write-up...

However, you could say the same thing for every team right now. That quote doesn’t mean a trade is going to happen, nor should it be expected.

Millar makes sense to come up with the team, but I doubt that’s going to happen. Personally, I’d like to see him there, but I just don’t think he’s got enough left in the tank to make it a full season. I’d like to see him over in Iowa, working with the minor league guys, and he’d be a nice addition come September or if there is any sort of injury to Lee or Hoff.

The odds of Colvin making the team are pretty slim. I think Fuld makes it for the defense and for his speed. I see him playing very much the same role on the Cubs that Reed Johnson will be play for the Dodgers… a late inning defensive upgrade.

Silva has surprised me, and if he keeps it up I think he deserves the two or three starts Lilly will miss. Gorz is Gorz… I really don’t expect much more than .500 from him, but 10 wins is still 10 wins – and I’ll take them.

I’m very concerned about the bullpen, but who isn’t right now. That sort of thing works itself out throughout the course of the season… the loss of Guzman is big, but we’ll make do. Maybe Spellcheck can slot in as a setup man if he gets his you-know-what together.

I think your comment about the offense is a little ambiguous. There are some SERIOUS bombers in the NL Central this year and some teams are going to score a TON of runs. The issue for a lot of those teams is how many runs they’ll give up. If our starting 4/5 can keep it together and limit damage, and of course our guys put a couple clutch runs on the board, I think we’ll be ok. One thing is for sure, there should be some very, very close games this year.

by lswaidz on Mar 21, 2010 11:59 AM CDT reply actions  

Blanco...

I haven’t been paying too close attention this spring training, so I guess I missed something. I was under the assumption that Blanco was going to make the team. What has happened that leads you to conclusively say that he won’t?

by kanderber on Mar 21, 2010 12:42 PM CDT reply actions  

other than getting hurt?

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Mar 21, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

minor injury though, right?

IIRC, he should be back playing before end of ST, though maybe I missed a recent update.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 21, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think he was supposed to be out

for two weeks, which should return him before the end of ST, but may not give him enough time to show he should be retained on the big club.

Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.

by drewishdrewid on Mar 21, 2010 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

I blog to differ...

…with you on several points.

Blanco will not clear waivers. Somebody out there has room for a great glove / minimal bat MI. The Cubs are going to either get lucky and be able to trade him for something (prospect or in a package for bullpen arm) or just wish him well and say goodbye. Barney becomes your emergency SS if shuttle diplomacy is needed. If Riot gets hurt, I think Castro comes up and starts.

Only way Colvin makes the team is if one of the big 3 (Sori/Byrd/Dome) gets hurt. Otherwise he goes to Iowa to play every day. Yes, Colvin has opened eyes and impressed, but I’m surprised you don’t grasp the realities of having 3 well-paid veteran starters ahead of him. And sitting on bench will most likely do more harm than good for him, causing those raised eyebrows to be lowered. Assuming Nady is not DLed, he’s the “real bat” on the bench – Fuld fills the defense/PR role.

As for having questions in the bullpen and the need for another starter… you can pretty much say that every year. Oh and moving Wells would not be a good move, struggling or not. You can’t teach what this guy already has. Give him time and room to grow and he’ll be just fine.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 21, 2010 12:46 PM CDT reply actions  

No way is Tracy not making it

He’s had a solid spring, and if they view him as healthy, a legitimate 3B backup isn’t going to be sent to Iowa for Tyler Colvin.

Colvin could potentially edge out Fuld if Lou develops a crush on him, that’s really the only avenue open for Colvin making the team, they’re not going to carry 6 OF. Plus Tracy already backs up LF, so they really have 5.5 OF already without Colvin.

I don’t like the idea of Fontenot being the backup SS. His potential offense would be much more welcome there, but there’s pretty much no way he’d be anything greater than mediocre defensively, and even that is hoping for a lot. It makes far more sense for the backup SS to be a great glove man than a ‘hope-he-rebounds’ offensive player.

In my opinion, the bench should be:
Nady
Tracy
Fuld
Hill
Blanco

The only issue with this bench is if Blanco will be ready to go with his spring training injury. Otherwise I’m pretty sure this is the best bench available from who is in camp. But, I’m all but certain that Fontenot is still viewed as an asset by management, and will therefore be on the 25 man roster. I don’t know who gets cut for Fontenot, I would hope it’s Fuld, because the only other logical option is Tracy, and that would be moronic if he’s healthy. Aramis Ramirez requires a solid backup available at all times, he’s a likely bet to start 130 games or less this season.

The only way I see Millar making the team is if they go with 11 pitchers, or if Nady or Tracy starts the season on the DL. Millar would certainly be a nice guy to have around for morale, but they have players who are better at everything he offers on the field.

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by WittyUserName on Mar 21, 2010 12:48 PM CDT reply actions  

Most stuff I've read keeps Baker on the Team vs. Blanco

Does Tracy play 1B – I can’t remember. I know Nady can, but someone’s got to back up Lee, and with Hoffpauir likely not making the team (right?) that’ a hole to fill. I don’t dislike your take, though.

by DisCUBbobulated on Mar 21, 2010 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Pretty sure Tracy can play 1B

I believe he would be a backup for 3B, 1B, LF, and in an emergency RF.

From what I gather management is still leaning towards Fontenot starting with Baker splitting time at 2B. If the team feels that Fontenot can play SS (which I don’t) than Blanco / Barney aren’t necessary. In my listed bench I was assuming Baker would be the starting 2B, but management seems to want to give Fontenot another shot.

So I’m thinking, if healthy, the bench could very well be:
Nady
Tracy
Fuld
Hill
Baker

With Fontenot being the backup SS.

Shameless self promotion: Check out my website!!!
http://www.itsnotabook.com

by WittyUserName on Mar 21, 2010 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fontenot started at SS today (Sunday).

He did fine. Good enough to be a backup, I’d say.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Mar 21, 2010 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wish they'd carry six bench players

However, since that isn’t going to happen, they really have to keep Tracy. Otherwise, they’re essentially going to have one backup for the middle infield and third base, which would be insane. Since Kevin Millar has played a whopping 32 games at third, he just doesn’t inspire confidence as a viable backup option there.

I still don’t see the point of having a seventh relief pitcher who’s just going to gather dust in the bullpen, especially when Lou has shown a propensity to burn through his bench early and have nobody left if the game goes into extra innings. There were a few games last year where I seriously wondered which pitcher would have to go in to play somewhere if a position player got hurt late in the game. I don’t like seeing Big Z constantly being used as a pinch hitter because of the danger of him getting hurt, and using Koyie Hill as an emergency third baseman is just asking for trouble. But then, I’ve never won a game as a major league manager, so what do I know?

by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 21, 2010 12:48 PM CDT reply actions  

should have put in SIC you got me

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 21, 2010 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yea no kidding

A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.

by mikegncb34 on Mar 21, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

thanks all for the insight....so Tracy makes it huh

Colvin goes for more time….he’ll be back, this year…..still don’t like the SS situation and the starters

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 21, 2010 4:31 PM CDT reply actions  

I think we'll be OK at short.

Theriot’s been training hard and looks much better this year. He should get more rest than last year, hopefully he won’t wear down.

by mgrace17 on Mar 21, 2010 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

my major question for short is what do the cubs do when theriot needs a day off?

Lou said that fontenot could be a late inning replacement but he never mentioned starting fontenot, something that will certainly be necessary maybe 5-15 times if he is the backup shortstop

by mdcubsfan on Mar 21, 2010 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I was listining to Pat and Ron today when the Cubs played the Reds

and they were talking about Tyler Colvin and his chances of making the Cubs as a bench player. They said that the bench role should be reserved to veterans, like Kevin Millar, and I agree with them. Tyler Colvin is a good, young outfielder with some potential, and I don’t want him to spent his time sitting on the bench while he’s missing some at bats in Iowa. For that reason alone, I don’t want him to make the team. Even if he does, it’s clear that he won’t be taking the job away from Soriano or Fukudome anytime soon, and a young guy like him still has plenty to learn in Iowa. As for Sam Fuld, I hope he makes the team. He knows the game well, and could be used more as a defensive replacement than an offensive power off the bench.

by braziliancubsfan on Mar 21, 2010 6:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Plus, Fuld has been there before.

A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.

by mikegncb34 on Mar 21, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

God I love Ivy Walls' posts.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Mar 21, 2010 6:52 PM CDT reply actions  

There's no way

the Cubs could think they could get away with Fontenot as their backup ss. If he does make that spot instead of Blanco, I think that signals that Castro will be up sooner then later.

by Comfortably Numb on Mar 21, 2010 7:10 PM CDT reply actions  

I am doubtful of a Trade before Opening Day

If the Bullpen does not collapse in the next 2 weeks and the Cubs feel their 4th and 5th starters are serviceable, they will not make a trade before Opening Day. The Cubs will use April and March to see where the weaknesses are and determine if any other clubs want to dump a rent-a-player. Lou Piniella has stated that he thinks there is some money there to increase payroll, if Hendry thought it would get the team in the playoffs.

Unless a no-brainer deal is thrown the Cubs way, what you see is what you get for the Cubs Opening Day roster.

"On offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs" - Earl Weaver

by RiskyBusiness on Mar 21, 2010 7:43 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it comes down to this.......

Correct me if I’m wrong. We get 25 players. Lou keeps 12 pitchers-that leaves 13 position players. Take out your 8 starters:

Baker
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Soto
Soriano
Byrd
Fukudome

So that leaves 5 bench players:

Nady
Hill
3 of these: Fontenot/Blanco/Millar/Tracy/Fuld

Really comes down to how much “depth” we have on the IF/OF.

I could see Blanco/Fontenot as our backups for the middle infield. Tracy may not make it if Lou believes Fontenot/Baker can back up Ramirez at 3B. Or, does Tracy make it and Fuld gets optioned as Tracy is a super sub for IF/OF? Tough to say! You could have any one of these combos, but I’d say Millar is out:

Tracy/Fontenot/Blanco
Fuld/Tracy/Fontenot
Fuld/Tracy/Blanco
Fuld/Fontenot/Blanco

Thoughts?

by jballgame on Mar 22, 2010 10:08 AM CDT reply actions  

Blanco is odd man out

Kind of sad really I would love to have his glove on the team but Tracy brings a nice bat off the bench and can play more postions (1b,3b, Corner OF,) and Fontenot is a viable MI backup. Leaves a pretty easy decision in my mind.

"God watches over drunks and third baseman."- Leo Durocher

by BelieveinBlue2314 on Mar 22, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

question....

I could be wrong here but I thought I read Nady wouldnt be ready for game action til may am I wrong?

"God watches over drunks and third baseman."- Leo Durocher

by BelieveinBlue2314 on Mar 22, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

depends on what you mean by "game action"

Healthy enough to play the outfield every day and make those long throws? No.
Healthy enough to pinch hit when needed? Most definitely yes.
Healthy enough for the occasional spot-start in the corner OF? Pretty sure the answer to that is yes.

Unless there’s something else wrong with him that we haven’t heard yet, I think the only scenario that Nady would NOT be able to help the team – at least not until June – is if one of Sori/Byrd/Dome gets hurt bad enough to go on DL. If that scenario comes about, then Colvin probably gets the call.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 22, 2010 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Silly idea?

Because of the cold weather that plagues Chicago at the start of the season, would it be possible to DL Nady and Blanco to start the season? You could keep Baker, Fuld, Hill, Tracy, and Millar to start the season as our bench. Rushing Nady doesn’t make sense if we want his bat/glove later in the season to platoon with Dome. I like the Millar idea at Iowa maybe later in the season as a mentor. Colvin, who has dazzled this Spring, needs to be in Iowa to start – maybe even the centerpiece of a trade for pitching (it pains me to say). Am I crazy?

by socalicubsfan on Mar 22, 2010 12:19 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Bench

Koyie Hill
Jeff Baker
Xavier Nady
Sam Fuld
Chad Tracy

If Nady starts on the DL, then Kevin Millar hangs around.

Andres Blanco? Waived.

Tyler Colvin? Ticketed to Triple A to play everyday

The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.

by BLou on Mar 22, 2010 12:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Gulp...

I could live with that… To start the season. Barney needs to bounce around this year in Iowa (IMHO). He could serve as a nice IF utility player call-up if he gets time at 3B in Des Moines… But I believe he’d need to be added to the 40-man first (are there any open slots?)

by socalicubsfan on Mar 22, 2010 12:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Really

why do the Cubs need 12 pitchers to start the season. You always hear that they can get by with a four man rotation early on. So why keep 12?

Trade Doug Deeds to Washington.

by wild bill on Mar 22, 2010 3:02 PM CDT reply actions  

Exactly

If Blanco does not make the team which means Lou feels that Fontenot is a capable backup at SS.

Thus I believe with the off days, we will carry 11 players and Kevin “Cowboy up” “or bunch of idiots” Millar will make the team and I think it will be crucial for the team chemistry. Especially if the rumors are true that he has been playing jokes on the guys and keeping the whole team lose. A guy like him is invaluable to a team. If we had a player like this in 2007 and 2008, I guarantee we do not get swept out of the playoffs. In 2008 after game 1, the team looked like they were sinking in quick sand and a guy like Millar could have helped the coaching staff by emphasizing that it was just 1 game and his Redsox came back from a 3-0 deficit with the " us against the world mentality" and it worked.

If the starters can’t go deep into games and the bullpen is not doing it’s job, then I can see Kevin Millar being the first one sent down barring any injury from Soriano, Lee, Fukudome, Tracy, or Nady.

by MrShowtime on Mar 23, 2010 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

thought I might add this new headline development

Muskat Ramblings:

Could it be they DL Nady?

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 24, 2010 6:05 PM CDT reply actions  

Except Lou has already said they won't.

I think it would be a mistake to bring Colvin up, even if you started him twice a week. He needs to play every day.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Mar 24, 2010 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

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