Marshalling Their Resources, Cubs Blast Rangers 12-1
by Al Yellon on Mar 24, 2010 7:44 PM CDT
in Chicago Cubs Recaps
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PrintSURPRISE, Arizona -- Sean Marshall should get the last spot in the Cubs' rotation.
There, I said it.
All of Marshall's outings this spring -- four of them -- have been good and today's was outstanding; he allowed three singles and a walk and struck out five (two of them called on nice bendy curveballs) and would have gotten out of it unscathed except for Chad Tracy's error in the first inning which allowed the Rangers' only run (unearned).
Tracy had put the Cubs in the lead in the top of the first with a three-run double and drove in a pair in the six-run sixth with another double, two of the Cubs' 17-hit, six-walk, 12-1 pounding of the Rangers in front of a crowd of 8,332 at Surprise Stadium that seemed about two-thirds Cubs fans.
Among the other candidates for this spot, Carlos Silva has been decent but not great; Tom Gorzelanny (who throws tomorrow against the Diamondbacks in Tucson) has walked too many, and Jeff Samardzija ought to be learning how to be a setup man. Marshall, four years after he made the team out of spring training before he was really ready for it, deserves the spot. Silva can fill in until Ted Lilly is ready and then go to the bullpen. Suddenly, the Cub rotation and pen looks better, especially after Jeff Gray made his first spring appearance in today's game. He gave up a harmless infield hit that no one could have fielded and got two groundouts in a scoreless inning.
Meanwhile, Tracy & Co. were slamming hits all over the field against four Ranger pitchers; the only one who came out unscored-upon was Willie Eyre, brother of former Cub Scott Eyre, who threw a scoreless ninth against three Cub scrubs and Micah Hoffpauir, who went 0-for-2 with a walk and, with a .243 spring average, is probably not going to make the team. I do feel bad for Hoffpauir, who paid a tremendous amount of minor-league dues (over 2800 minor league plate appearances, including parts of six different seasons at Triple-A), but whose baseball career might have to continue in Japan.
I still don't understand, when we are now ten days from Opening Day, why Lou is using pitchers in relief who either have been already cut (Jeff Stevens) or who have zero chance of making the team (Brian Schlitter). There are jobs to be won, or so it would seem. Mike Parisi redeemed himself after his horrid appearance on Monday with a scoreless inning (one walk), but I suspect he'll either find himself back in Cardinals camp or the Cubs will make some sort of minor-league deal with St. Louis so they can send him to Iowa.
Other Cubs who hit well today: Kosuke Fukudome, 3-for-3 with a walk, raising his spring average to .286; Mike Fontenot, 2-for-4, and Andres Blanco, 2-for-2 with a walk. While Fontenot has played OK at shortstop, Blanco is so much better defensively than any infielder the Cubs have in camp that I think they have to keep him.
The Cubs will make their last-ever spring training trip to Tucson tomorrow. Tom Gorzelanny will take one last shot at making the rotation, and though I hate to root against anyone, I'd much rather see Sean Marshall get that rotation slot. The D'backs will counter with Dan Haren; the Cubs will also face Arizona relievers Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez; D'backs manager A.J. Hinch says Gutierrez has been his "most impressive reliever this spring".
Random note: Alfonso Soriano wore #80 today; similar story, apparently, as to why Mike Fontenot wore #88 at Camelback Ranch one day last week, they both forgot their jerseys. Why it's up to the player and not the equipment manager to remember the jerseys, I have no idea.
Finally, in an inscrutable move that could only be done by a professional sports stadium, consider this entry policy at Surprise Stadium. There are two primary entrances, both off the main parking lot north of the park. One is in center field, where the ticket booths are. The other is in the left field corner. When I arrived at about 11:05 am, parked closest to the LF entrance, I found it was closed, even though all the ticket takers were standing there with scanners. They said, "If you want to go in, you can go in through CF." Since I was waiting for some friends and it wasn't crowded, I decided to wait. And why is one entrance open and the other not? Reason given: "So people can go in and watch batting practice."
Great, except neither team took BP today.
Onward.
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Yep
Sean Marshall should get the last spot in the Cubs’ rotation.
I agree with you 100%.
A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.
Agreed on the Marshall statement...messed up the block quote. Oh well.
But I think he brings a lot more to the table than Gorzo and he’s thrown a better spring. On top of that, he’s been in and out of the rotation for the last few years and he knows what to expect
A-well-a Byrd, Byrd, Byrd, well the Byrd is the word.
Al you just made me a happy boy
Marshall definitely deserves the rotation spot. He’s had the best spring and has held the longest tenure with the Cubs. It would be a shame and a wrong doing if he isn’t offered the spot.
This is the year...
Not to mention
That if he’s starting, Lou won’t be tempted to waste him as a LOOGY. I got frustrated several times last season when just that happened. Give him the starter’s role, and be done with it.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
agreed, it would be much different if he were a long man reliever
but he is not built to be a LOOGY
This is the year...
Exactly right.
He was completely misused last year. And still did a good job.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al Yellon on Mar 24, 2010 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He was completely misused
He should have been a reliever all year. Now, I am not one to argue very often, but I really do think he is a relief pitcher. I recall he had a fantastic spring last year too, and he didn’t carry it over. He was an okay starter. Okay, nothing better. I would much rather have Gorz there. Marshall is a above average reliever, as evidenced by his RISP rate last year.
by Mulhollandmania on Mar 24, 2010 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I believe Marshall was misused as a LOOGY.
He could have easily been a long reliever, but Lou apparently doesn’t believe in such things.
He needs to be in the rotation this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Respectfully disagree
I think his value is much higher as a reliever. I’d rather have an above average relief pitcher than a mediocre starter.
by Mulhollandmania on Mar 25, 2010 12:01 AM CDT up reply actions
We'll agree to disagree, then.
Lefthanders are sometimes late bloomers. Marshall is 27 — not old, and he was probably in the major leagues a year before he should have been.
It’s time for him to be in the rotation.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm going to have to side with you....
This whole Marshall in the bullpen nonsense has been a combination of bad roster management, and this off-base notion that Marshall fatigues too easily, which is based mostly off scouting from years ago. Fact is, he’s more than capable of giving you 150+ innings of above average work, which makes him more valuable as a starter by most any standard.
Either start the guy, or trade him to a team that will for someone for a better-fitting part.
by Damen Jackson on Mar 25, 2010 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
yes
"75 wins is optimistic with this staff. Optimistic." and "Cubs are looking at 4th place in 2010." BLou, March 17, 2010.
by BleedsbluinMI on Mar 25, 2010 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions
if he’s starting, Lou won’t be tempted to waste him as a LOOGY
Or use him as a left fielder.
That’s one of the most memorable images in my head of 2009, Lou figuring out how to creatively thwart his impulses.
"There's more to life than profits...like, you know, slurpees and stuff." ~Randy Marsh
Actually, that was a pretty good idea.
They got out of the inning. Lost the game, but kept it close without wasting another reliever in case the game went into extra innings.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It was pretty crafty, I agree.
Just saying Lou had to outsmart himself because his natural tendency would be to burn Marshall on a couple hitters, and be stuck with whatever was left in the pen. I loved it.
"There's more to life than profits...like, you know, slurpees and stuff." ~Randy Marsh
I remember when that happened.
The game thread was full of “What the heck are you doing, Lou?” posts.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 24, 2010 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree, Marshall deserves the fifth rotation spot.
Of the pitchers on the Cubs other than Z, Dempster, Wells, and Lilly, Marshall is probably the best person for that fifth starter’s role.
It would be a mistake if he doesn’t get it.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 24, 2010 7:51 PM CDT reply actions
Sets up nicely too
if it’s hard throwing righty, soft tossing lefty, hard tossing righty etc etc and I don’t have much faith in the other candidates so I would like to see Marshall get the job.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 24, 2010 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions
That is assuming
that you go Z, Lilly, Dempster, Marshall, Wells….even though Marshall would be the 4th starter in that set up I still think he is more of a number 5 guy. Just like the balance of that rotation.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 24, 2010 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Marshall just flat out has better stuff than any of them.
The Gorz is the closest but I would rather have Marshall. Has better control of his stuff.
2010 is OUR year.
Marshall does deserve the spot.
He’s an better talent than any of those pitchers also. If the Cubs want to win, a Zambrano-Dempster-Lilly-Wells-Marshall rotation would be the way to go.
I am a Gray fan. I think he has the stuff to be a potential setup guy. I like him more than any of the other guys we have fighting for that spot (Russell, Parisi, Gaub, Mateo).
2010 is OUR year.
So all of a sudden.
…. the Cubs actually do have some bullpen depth.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I've been waiting on Gray to pitch all spring.
I’m hoping he wins the last spot. He and Gaub are the only ones that I think would succeed in a setup role.
2010 is OUR year.
gaub gets rocked against RH hitters
he strikes me as the definition of LOOGY
"The roar from the crowd really fired me up," Burish said. "In warmups there were a lot of signs. One said 'Burish, my grandma is pregnant.' I don't know what that means. I skated by it and said, 'it's not mine.' "
by jesus christos on Mar 24, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Unpossible!
Anywho, I agree with you. I’d much rather have Da Gorz in the ’pen and have The Better Left Fielder in the rotation.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
Agree with you wholeheartedly.
Marshall has been better and more consistent than Silva, Gorzelanny, and Samardzija this spring. End of story.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." -- Alvin Dark
I agree Al
Marshall deserves the spot, it makes sense. That being said I can hear Lou now, " well we like Marshall in the long role, we like his versatility, Gorzo has been a starter pretty much the majority of his career, so we are going to go with Gorzo as the 4th starter until Ted comes back". I sure hope I am wrong. Gorzo has not thrown strikes, Marshall deserves the spot.
That logic doesn't even make sense.
I hope he doesn’t decide to do that. What sense does it make to start Gorz because he’s been a starter all his career? If he’s the 6th best possible solution that point of view is irrevelant.
2010 is OUR year.
Of course it doesn't make sense. It's supposed to be Lou's logic.
Some men learn through what they read. Some men learn through what they're told. Some men have to piss on the railroad tracks. And some men keep on pissin'.
Did you read the sentence proceeding that one?
I know it’s Lou’s logic. I’m just stating it doesn’t make sense.
2010 is OUR year.
3 questions, attack any or all
Would STL even offer the 25 K to get Parisi back?
Does Gray replace Gaub/Russell or Shark?
If Hoff goes to Japan, do we get anything in return?
Great win. Thanks in advance.
Get anything in return for Hoffpauir?
Maybe, just maybe, we get a half order of sushi.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
woo!
"The roar from the crowd really fired me up," Burish said. "In warmups there were a lot of signs. One said 'Burish, my grandma is pregnant.' I don't know what that means. I skated by it and said, 'it's not mine.' "
by jesus christos on Mar 24, 2010 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Gorzelanny's walks are troubling
And it’s been a consistent problem of his. Not only will walks lead to crooked numbers on the scoreboard, he’ll eat through the bullpen because of his high pitch count.
Marshall has earned the fifth starters spot, even if Gorzelanny is lights-out tomorrow.
The question then becomes, do the Cubs send Gorzelanny to Iowa to find his command until a starter is needed? Because the last thing the bullpen needs is a walk-prone lefty.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
I wonder if you used him in certain situations
if he would be willing or able to throw more strikes. Does he walk guys because he is trying to nibble or because he has no control? Haven’t seen him pitch in the spring so I don’t know the answer. But maybe if you said go out there and go after the next guy he would throw strikes?
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 24, 2010 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Good questions.
Maybe we’ll have more answers after tomorrow’s game.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I watched a lot of Gorzelanny when he was in the Minors
And some of it was general wildness, but at other times it was in trying to nitpick, missing with his fastball and not being able to get swings and misses at his changeup.
With his high BB rate, I don’t think you can count on him as a LOOGY. But if you bury him as your long man, then I don’t think he gets enough work to really work through his problems and find his command, arm slot, etc..
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
In 2007....
.. when Gorz had his one good year in Pittsburgh, his walk rate was decent (68 in 201 innings). He needs to figure out how to get that back.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
For him, I think it's just being able to work ahead consistently and focusing on it.
That changeup becomes a much more valuable weapon when the count is 1-2, 2-2. When you’re behind and trying to get hitters to chase that pitch, it doesn’t happen as often.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
I am wondering if you used him
as a shorter guy. Like a more middle relief guy if he would be willing to challenge guys more since he wouldn’t have to go through the lineup more than once.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 24, 2010 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions
It's a good question.
And if he can challenge hitters and get them out, then maybe he becomes more comfortable doing that in a starting role.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Breed some confidence maybe
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Mar 24, 2010 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions
I would agree
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
I'm going to agree...
And I would add that the Cubs seem to think that he has more upside than many do here, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Cubs let him start the season in the rotation, walks or not.
Now what really frosts you is that when we were screaming about Gorzelanny staying in the minors last year, as opposed to being on the major-league roster, this was exactly the stuff that I was looking for him to be working on, not trying to figure this out less than two weeks before Opening Day.
by Damen Jackson on Mar 25, 2010 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I wholeheartedly agree
While Gorzelanny has upside, it’ not No. 1 or No. 2 upside. At best, Gorzelanny can be an effective No. 3 starter, and in my opinion, if he learns to become Tom Glavine-lite – fastballs off the corner, complemented by his changeup.
And yes, this should have been going on from July 30 until at least Sept. 1 in the minors, where he was finding success and building his confidence.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
2 reasons why Bullpen
1) Marshall is stronger in the pen.
2) Cubs historically have given Marshall low run support on his best pitched games.
Luck.
The Cubs hitters do not decide to score fewer runs when Sean Marshall, starting pitcher, throws well. If your 2nd point is, in fact, true, it’s still meaningless because that sort of past performance would have no bearing on any future performance.
http://www.fivetoolfans.com
That second point is a horrible way to make decisions.
And the first one is up for debate.
2010 is OUR year.
So Jenkins belonged in the bullpen too?
He usually had minimal run support when he pitched. And look where it got him. Six consecutive 20-win seasons.
why stand by a goofy point?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Mar 25, 2010 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmmm,
Your first point is a valid one, but the second is irrelevant. It is not the pitchers fault that the team fails to score runs for him.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Mar 25, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Marshall should definately get that last spot, but
how many innings did he pitch today? I was just curious because I did not see it in Al’s post. Anyways I was just wondering what makes Silva better than Gorzelanny? How many walks has he (Gorzelanny) actually had? Can someone make these comparisons for me? It just seems that Gorzelanny had an above average year last year, especially when you compare his stats with him and the Pirates. What did he win like 4 or 5 with the Pirates? That’s not to shabby, even if he walks a few a game, I’m sure he’s no Rich Hill.
marshall went 4
"The roar from the crowd really fired me up," Burish said. "In warmups there were a lot of signs. One said 'Burish, my grandma is pregnant.' I don't know what that means. I skated by it and said, 'it's not mine.' "
by jesus christos on Mar 24, 2010 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't know how many pitches, but the outing was effortless.
He definitely could have gone another inning.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You can go here to compare stats from ST:
"75 wins is optimistic with this staff. Optimistic." and "Cubs are looking at 4th place in 2010." BLou, March 17, 2010.
by BleedsbluinMI on Mar 24, 2010 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions
If this doesn't get Marshall into the 5th spot, nothing will...
except for injuries, of course. Silva’s had a good spring, but Marshall has had a better one so far.
by braziliancubsfan on Mar 24, 2010 8:52 PM CDT reply actions
Marshall's highest and best use is in the bullpen
Marshall has repeatedly shown lack of durability when used as a starter. Meanwhile, he is been consistently decent to good in the bullpen. And given the dubious shape of the Cub bullpen otherwise, I think it is no-brainer to put Marshall in the pen.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Although you've said it before, I'll support your statement about durability
However, Marshall had some arm issues during the years that he was bouncing between Iowa and Chicago and the rotation and the pen. The coaches were wary of having him make one start in a month and go 5-6 innings. I don’t know if those arm problems are gone, now, or if they still feel they have to treat him gingerly. Maybe with all the curveballs, his shoulder or elbow aches after a start. Again, I don’t know.
However, given his control and poise, I think it is likely that he can be a six-inning starter, which is all you need in the fifth slot, and can do so with a pretty low ERA. That’s why I still like Marshall in the rotation and Gorzelanny in the pen to start the season.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
But...
Sean Marshall has never been able to be a “6 inning starter.” Try more like a “four inning starter.” Which, when coupled with the value and the decent success he has had in the bullpen, makes it a no-brainer to put him back in the pen. ESPECIALLY given all the question marks in this pen right now. Marshall can be certainty in that pen that we need.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
At some point,
You may want to look through Marshall’s game logs as a starter during his four seasons here. In nearly all of his starts, he goes 5-6 innings, sometimes even more. And he seems to do better while starting than in relief appearances.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Who cares if he's a Cubs fan? This is a football forum! He is a PACKER fan as well. So, from now until March, I’m sure he’ll dedicate a lot of his time here. In late March, then we can be enemies during the baseball season. Besides, the Cubs have perhaps the most loyal baseball fanbase in the country. You have to respect that.
Go Pack!
by Jabooty on Jan 25, 2010 2:58 PM EST
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Mar 24, 2010 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Yawn
I guess you had different perspective from the left field bleachers versus my third base side seats or television set. Fact is Sean Marshall wilted after three or four innings. Repeatedly so. It gets to the point with Marshall that his starts end up overworking the bullpen.
I like Sean Marshall. He isn’t fancy and he will never be a star. But what he can be is a decently effective middle reliever. THe role in which he has tasted the most success as a Cub. The experiment of ramming him into the rotation has been tried in the past….and the results have not been there.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Facts, although I'll expect you to ignore them again.
Sean Marshall has made 59 major league starts. He has gone at least five innings — at LEAST five — in 41 of them.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Al
So you are saying that 35% of the time he doesn’t make it out of the 5th inning. That isn’t really good.
Compare that with Z the last 2 years. – 13.7%
Lilly – 9.8%
Dempster – 3.1%
Even Harden who we all know chewed through the pen was only 11.7%
I do think that Marshall has earned the opportunity to give it another try, but I don’t think that he has proven yet that he can handle the responsibility of being a starter.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
You're all missing my point
There are two ready explanations for why Marshall didn’t throw many innings as a starter. You can’t just go off what he did in the past.
1. You can’t expect any pitcher to be brought out of the bullpen to start and go six innings the first time around. There have been several times the Cubs have given Marshall a “spot start” and it’s silly to ask him to extend himself in those situations, lest you risk injury.
2. When he was a full-time starter, he had known injury issues. They weren’t specified, but the Cubs were always talking about being “careful” with him.
If you give him the starting spot now, #1 goes away. As I said before, I don’t know about #2.
What blou is claiming (I think) is that Marshall’s stuff just isn’t good enough to go through the order a third time. Either that, or he isn’t strong enough to throw beyond 80 pitches a game. This may be true, too, but doesn’t seem so to me.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
Check out the BR link below
The second time through the order his OPS allowed jumps 50 points. The third time, another 80. Sample size is way too small to care about the 4th time through though.
I’ll agree with you that his usage up to this point hasn’t been ideal if your goal is to get 6+ innings out of a guy though.
Thanks for the data
I’m just not sure you can separate that from the reasons I suggested. Of course, if he starts getting fatigued earlier than other pitchers, he’s going to have more problems the third time through the order. Is it his stuff or was it his situation at the time?
Again, I really don’t know, so I’m not trying to argue. However, the data appears to be consistent with multiple explanations.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
Speaking of stats...
… here’s a couple different cuts to Sean Marshall’s career IPs for games he started:
2006: Started 24 games. Pitched beyond the 5th inning 12 times. Pitched beyond the 6th inning 5 times. Failed to reach 5 innings 9 times.
2007: Started 19 games. Pitched beyond the 5th innning 12 times. Pitched beyond the 6th inning 5 times. Failed to reach the 5th inning 5 times.
2008 (split duty between SP and RP; looking ONLY at games started): Started 7 games. Pitched beyond the 5th four times. Picthed beyond the 6th inning once (7 IP that game). Never failed to reach the 5th inning.
2009 (again, split duty): Started 9 games. Pitched beyond the 5th inning three times. Pitched beyond the 6th inning twice (both times 7 IP). Failed to reach the 5th inning once.
In 2006, he averaged about 5.2 innings (averages just above that mark). In 2007, he averaged about 5.2 innings (again, averaging just above that mark). In 2008, he averaged just a hair under six innings (in seven starts). In 2009, he averaged 5.1 innings (in eight starts).
Total average across all 59 games he started? He averaged between 5.1 and 5.2 innings. He pitched beyond five innings 31 times (52.5% of the time), and pitched beyond six innings 13 times (22%). He failed to reach the fifth inning 13 times (22% – but only once since the 2007 season).
Finally, we get to the grand totals of innings pitched. Being the nice gent that I am, I decided to treat you all by breaking out home games vs. away games by wins and losses, to account for how many innings a game would have gone in regulation (knocking out extra innnings just ’cause). In games Sean Marshall started, games in regulation would have gone 513 innings. He pitched (by my count) 301 innings, leaving 212 to the bullpen, which averages out to a bit under 3.2 innings per game.
As for how many pitches he’s thrown, it’s hard to get a good sense of that. If you look over the game logs, you’ll note that most games he throws well he’s at around 88 pitches, with an acceptable range of tolerance of seven pitches or so (educated guesses… at this point I don’t care to do any more math). But the games he exits early skews the average to about 80. The fact that he’s getting pulled out so early with that level of pitch count should tell you that his “fuel tank” is smaller than our better pitchers. But what else would you expect at the back end of our rotation?
By the way, all stats pulled from baseball-reference.com. The numbers I’m reporting come from manual work in Excel, so there may be some minor errors due to miskeys, but I’ve gone over it for about an hour, so I’m confident that the big picture is accurate.
Sorry for all the math.
by Flatley on Mar 25, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Was told there would be no math.
Anyway, here’s the issue, laid out by you very well: Marshall has never been allowed to go an entire season in the rotation. Except for 2006 — when he was probably not ready for the major leagues — he’s been jerked back and forth between rotation and bullpen.
That’s kind of a backwards way for a pitcher to come out of a farm system with talent. Usually, he’d start as a reliever, then work his way up to starting. Clearly, he probably should have been pitching fulltime at Iowa in 2006, then he’d have been in line for the rotation in 2007 or 2008.
He’s definitely ready now.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Actually, in 2007...
…he started all but two games (21 total vs 19 started). I believe he started the season on the DL, as his first game pitched was in late May. He found his way back onto the DL towards the end of August/beginning of September, too, if I recall correctly.
The data does show him struggling the 3rd time through the order
and when his pitch count gets higher.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=marshse01&year=Career&t=p#times
Which is true of a lot of pitchers. Sean’s numbers seem a bit higher though.
My take
1. z
2. demp
3. lilly
4. wells
5. silva
6. marshall
7. gorzelanny
I like this
I’m too intrigued by Silva to not give him at least 2 starts to see what we got
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Mar 25, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
The looming pitching crisis
I am bashed to bits around these parts for agreeing with the experts and seeing a team that will struggle to get much beyond 75 wins. But I would suggest that some of you READ INTENTLY the names who are likely to comprise this pitching staff. The back end of the rotation is going to be an unmitigated disaster in my estimation. And if Ted Lilly doesn’t come back healthy and reasonably effective SOON, then this thing may just go to hell in a hand basket by June 1st. ESPECIALLY if Randy Wells is a one-year wonder or something significantly less than what he flashed in 2009. I also struggle mightily to see where this bullpen can consistently delver outs. THere is a ridiculous amount of faith being invested in a collection of relievers that nobody heard about less than a year ago. Think about it…the Cubs are investing MAJOR faith in this Caridad chap being a primetime set-up man.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Am I really THAT far off Al...
Go back and read the last several day’s worth of topics and posts on your blog. In terms of pitching discussion, it is very heavily weighted toward discussion of things like Samardizija…and Silva…and Gorzellaney…and the assortment of no-names vying for multiple bullpen spots.
Not a whole heck of a lot discussed about frontline starting pitchers or solid bets in the bullpen. Reason why is because this ballclub doesn’t have a whole heckuva lot of certainties when it comes to the pitching staff.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Just because they are no-names....
… doesn’t mean they can’t pitch, now, does it?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It's the collectiveness of the uncertainty on this staff that is the problem
Case in point – today the subject matter is strong advocacy of Sean Marshall for the rotation. The same Marshall who has proven time and time again he can’t go much beyond 3 or 4 innings before falling apart on the mound.
THe Cubs have 4 geniune wildcards in the bullpen picture right now. To go along with a wondrous starting pitching “competition” between the putrid Carlos Silva, Pittsburgh castoff Tom Gorzellaney, the horrendously overrated Jeff Samardizija and Sean Marshall. Meanwhile NOBODY can predict what Randy Wells will do going forward. Layer this on top of the juvenile powderkeg by the name of Carlos Zambrano serving as elder statesman of the staff.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I think BLou may be right here
I won’t say that the season is lost, but there are legitimate reasons for concern in the bullpen and with the starting pitching too. Hopefully it works itself out and we are ok.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Guess what?
I’ll still pay attention. Mitigated disaster or not, the team is what we have. I don’t want to trade Vitters, HJ Lee, or Castro, o get some reliever with your stamp of approval.
Most of the looming crises about
I’m not allowed to talk about on this site, because they are off limits.
Our bullpen may drag us to fifth place. I don’t think it will. But there are still bigger looming crises in the world. They are off-topic on this site.
BLou, would you trade Vitters for Heath Bell?
Or do think there is more of a problem in the rotation?
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
Honest answer
I don’t trade any future potential for immediate help….not with this team as otherwise constructed. My way of saying I don’t not subscribe to the belief that the Cubs are on the cusp of being a strong contender in the National League.
The payroll is a mess….critical players are getting up there in years….the pitching staff is dubious. What do I do? I fire Jim Hendry, let some of these contracts unwind and begin a defacto rebuilding program on the fly. To me, it beats the alternative by a million miles.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
A sensible answer.
I only asked the question because I think it would take a prospect of Vitters’ quality to get Bell. And it might even take someone like Jay Jackson to get Jason Frasor.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
Olfactory receptors interact with odorant molecules in the nose, to initiate a neuronal response that triggers the perception of a smell. The olfactory receptor proteins are members of a large family of G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCR) arising from single coding-exon genes. Olfactory receptors share a 7-transmembrane domain structure with many neurotransmitter and hormone receptors and are responsible for the recognition and G protein-mediated transduction of odorant signals. The olfactory receptor gene family is the largest in the genome. The nomenclature assigned to the olfactory receptor genes and proteins for this organism is independent of other organisms.1
"The roar from the crowd really fired me up," Burish said. "In warmups there were a lot of signs. One said 'Burish, my grandma is pregnant.' I don't know what that means. I skated by it and said, 'it's not mine.' "
by jesus christos on Mar 24, 2010 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Not that anyone cares, but I'd take north:
Dempster, Zambrano, Wells, Marshall, Silva
Marmol, Caridad, Berg, Grabow, Gorzelanny, Diamond, and Gray
That puts Shark in the AAA rotation and lets Diamond be the guy who gets a taste of the majors before going down to Iowa when Lilly returns. I know this means adding Diamond to the 40-man roster, but I think he deserves it and is likely to bounce back and forth between minors and majors anyway.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
This is PRECISELY what I am talking about
I agree with the names on your list. But that’s just it. READ those names and it sobers you up real, real quick. There is no other way to slice it….there are a shitload of question marks that are going to comprise the 12 man staff Sweet Lou takes north.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
You're right, tons of questions...
However, lots of these guys can be successful, especially Marmol, Caridad, Grabow, and Berg. Take a good look at the list of no-names the Cardinals had in their pen coming out of ST last year, along with Franklin as their closer, and they did just fine.
They can always add an arm at the deadline, or even before hand, if some of these guys don’t work out. Have some faith, BLou! I’m not gonna slam you for your cynicism/realism, because I think a lot of people here are scared you’ll be right about the 75 wins. I think they’ll be better than that, and just how much better depends on better years from some regulars more than it depends on exceptional years from rookies.
Scott Bora$ is satan.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Mar 24, 2010 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't buy into the Cardinal analogy
Why? Because they had one helluva monster 1-2 punch in that rotation to carry the day. Carpenter and Wainwright were outstanding. Also, Joel Piniero came out of nowhere as latest star pupil of the Dave Duncan School of Pitcher Reclamaton.
And again, it the collective uncertainty of this staff that is the big, big problem. A huge crapshoot.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I'll take our trio of Dempster, Zambrano and Lilly with Wells as a fourth over the Cardinals
lineup of Carpenter, Wainwright and Piniero thank you very much. While Carpenter and Wainwright are the better pitcher out of this group, I prefer the overall depth of the Cubs rotation. Carpenter had a great bounce back year last year, but he could fall victim to the ailments that kept him off the field in ‘08. Indications are that Lilly should be his old self in a few weeks. The bullpens are about a wash with question marks on both sides. All in all, neither staff is head and shoulders above the other so the final winner may be the team that can remain healthy and keep it’s best arms in the mix.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 25, 2010 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Every team has questions
Even the Yankees. It’s baseball. It’s part of what makes it interesting
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Mar 25, 2010 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
This is a tough one for me...
My glass half full side wants to believe- I mean all that happened last year and we still won 83 games, if Sori comes back strong along with Rami, and Lee. Big Z pitches like he used too,Lilly comes back strong, Dempster and Wells have strong years, it looks like it could be good.
My glass half empty side tends to agree somewhat with BLou, past their prime stars that are injury prone, along with a questionable bullpen sounds like a tough year in a division in which the defending champs have added Matt Holiday full time.
But its baseball and anything can happen. That’s why they play the games. And heck, I was always more of a glass half full guy.
GO CUBS!!!!!!!
I Agree with Marshal have the 4th/5th spot...
Now can someone take a look at this and please correct me if I am wrong…
I’m on Baseball Ref and looking at his stats as a starter…
I’m no stats wizard but…
In 2006 he pitched in 24 games and had 124.2 innings…
so 124/24 is 5.2 innings per outing…
in 2007 he pitched in 21 games and had 103 innings…
so 103/21 is 4.905 inning pitched…
Now I am using simple averages here so that may be where I am missing something
but… sounds like hr has gone 5 or more in his starts…
"Why people who have not committed any punishable offense, listen to Country and Western music is absolutely beyond me" - John Cleese
I also checked Baseball Ref.
Nice to see BCB sponsors Marshall’s page – very cool Al!
You didn’t list 2008/09. Seeing as these are the closest two years, they are worth taking a look at.
2008- 7 starts, 39 ip = about 5 2/3 average ERA – 4.15 starter 3.42 reliever
2009 – 9 starts , 46 ip = a little more than 4 1/3 ERA – 5.25 starter 3.25 reliever
The breakdowns are very important as to how he has been used to arrive at these stats. In 2008, his first start was Jun 14, having pitched more than 2/3 of an inning once that year, in his previous appearance. He started 3 games in a row, the first going 4-2/3, likely a shortened start to “stretch him out”. His remaining starts were separated by 7, 3, 0, and 2 relief appearances. Three of those 12 relief appearances went more than an inning – 2, 2.1, and 3 innings.
In 2009, he made two relief appearances before making eight straight starts with one relief appearance mixed in. His final start came nine weeks later, lasting two innings. He had pitched more than 1-1/3 innings once in that time (2.0 innings). Of note, he did have a complete game. (OK, it as a rain shortened 5 inning win.)
In looking at his game logs, it is clear he has been yanked around a little, and used a lot as a loogy. He logged many outings of one or two outs. He has definitely done what was best for the team so far in his career. The numbers tell me he just hasn’t gotten much of a fair opportunity as a starter.
I feel he has earned a spot in the rotation and should be allowed the opportunity as a starter. Let him start there in the spring and keep him there even through a few poor outings. If by late May he isn’t getting it done and killing the bullpen, then pull him.
"75 wins is optimistic with this staff. Optimistic." and "Cubs are looking at 4th place in 2010." BLou, March 17, 2010.
by BleedsbluinMI on Mar 25, 2010 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
I only included 06 and 07
Because I couldn’t figure out how to get a game by game break out…
Is there such a thing?
"Why people who have not committed any punishable offense, listen to Country and Western music is absolutely beyond me" - John Cleese
Because the two teams...
… the Diamondbacks and Rockies, who train in Tucson, are moving to the Phoenix area in 2011. Spring training in Tucson ends after this eyar.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Which makes sense
But Tucson is very nice. Lots to do, fun place to stay as well. At least it’s not too far from Phoenix
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Mar 25, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Depends on your definition of "not too far".
Two hours minimum by car — the only way to get there — three hours in rush hour.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You are overstating
Tucson is exactly 105 miles from Phoenix. It is less from, say, Tempe. The Freeway is 75 MPH almost the entire way. It is totally doable in 90 minutes. With traffic, 2 hours. I have done the drive from Phoenix to Tucson about 500 times and it has NEVER taken me 3 hours, in fact, I cannot recall it ever being more than 2 hours.
It depends where in Phoenix
If you have 20 minutes of traffic to get to the interstate, then 90 minutes to the Tucson exit, then five minutes to your destination, that’s basically two hours.
I say this as someone who used to live in Tucson. Maybe I was just slow around Phoenix because I was unfamiliar with it.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
I believe you.
All I can tell you is, one ride back from there took me three hours.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I went to ST in 2004
We were staying in Phoenix and went to see the Cubs play the Sox. Very cool experience. It took us about two hours, but we had three cars going so we were doing our best to stay together
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
I would be ok with Marshall starting, but
there are good reasons why a bullpen role might be better. What I do not think is that the pitching staff is a train wreck waiting to occur.
FWIW my gut feeling is good about the team these days.
"A waist is a terrible thing to mind." - Terry 'Fat Tub of Goo' Forster
@Twitter as @brommmietze
by eths on Mar 25, 2010 2:42 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Time to stir the pot
It may be time to look into trade offers for Marshall. I like him. I think he could make a decent back end starter. If the Cubs want to utilize him as a….crikey, not sure what that specialist is called, long-man for lack of a better term, consider other offers. Marshall plus Blanco or Barney should be able to net something keepable.
It seems foolish to burn a guy with his ability by giving him the Shark treatment. “You’re a starter, no a loogy, no a spot starter that we will use in left field on occasion.”
I wish him well wherever, and don’t advocate kicking him to the curb. But a SD or Pgh would probably be willing to trot him out every fifth day. If we never will, his value won’t rise.
Two years ago this would have made sense
He was part of both the Peavy and Roberts deals
But I don’t think he has a ton of value right now unless you give him to a team like the Mets or Dbacks or Padres who are desperate for pitching. What would you get in return? We need a starter.
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
by Musicdude10 on Mar 25, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmmm
I suspect Al and others are right that Lou would use Marshall as a LOOGY. If that assumption is correct, I’m happy with Marshall in the rotation. If the assumption is flawed, I’d want Marshall in the pen, which I think is the team’s major weakness right now.
Does anyone know whether Gray has enough time to be ready for Opening Day?
Regarding Gray....
… I would say yes. He looked pretty sharp yesterday.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yes, it is.
Look! You and I can agree on something! :)
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Play Baker in the outfield!
Just kidding.
Al — what’s your best guess on the bench? Sorry, if you’ve said this elsewhere.
I haven't.
Mostly, because I still can’t figure it out, and I don’t think Lou has, either.
Koyie Hill – a lock.
Whoever doesn’t start at 2B (Fontenot or Baker) — a lock.
Beyond that… well, pick three among Nady, Colvin, Fuld, Blanco, Tracy and Millar. I suppose Nady’s going to make the team, unless he simply can’t play outfield at all. That leaves five people for two spots. A tough call.
And that looks like it leaves Micah Hoffpauir out.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It is a tough call.
I have to believe Colvin will be in AAA, UNLESS Nady can’t make the Opening Day roster. I also don’t see any way Tracy and Millar both make the team. That leaves five options:
1) Tracy and Fuld
2) Millar and Fuld
3) Tracy and Blanco
4) Millar and Blanco
5) Blanco and Fuld
I don’t think Lou goes with option five, though it might make the most baseball sense (fundamentals, defense, speed, etc.). And I think Tracy and Millar are duking it out based on who hits better — making that decision somewhat easier.
But Fuld or Blanco? Without Fuld, the backup CF is Kosuke Fukudome. Without Blanco, the backup SS is Mike Fontenot. Lou’s decision will probably hinge on who he feels more comfortable with as a backup …
Agreed on Fuld and Blanco.
Especially Blanco. Blanco is so much better defensively than either Fontenot or Theriot, the Cubs need him for that alone.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
My prediction: Blanco and Millar
You read it here first.
Another thought about who makes it out of spring training
Sometimes a team will take someone who has been hot during spring training without expecting them to stick with the team long-term. For example,
A reliever may do well because opponents are unfamiliar with him. This effect could last for a few weeks into the season before he is fully scouted. If you are going to send someone down in late April anyway, this may be the best use of the player for the current season. Run him out there a few weeks, then send him down.
A hitter may do well for any number of reasons. If the hitting coach wants to continue working with him, he can go north with the team and continue to learn. Once the starters get a little banged up or need days off, you want a better reserve. But letting this guy take batting practice and pinch-hit before the minor league season begins makes some sense. It also rewards those who work hard during spring training, and gives hope to the medium-level prospects in the system.
Maybe these aren’t great reasons, but I do believe they happen sometimes. That’s why I don’t get too upset if the team keeps “the wrong guy” on the roster, so long as that doesn’t mean losing a better player out of the system. Let’s see what the roster is like May 1 before getting too worried.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
On Gorz
Larry Rothschild seems to be the type of coach who teaches to nit pick. For some pitchers it works really well (Randy Wells) and other struggle with it (Marmol). Some pitchers just need to throw with the stuff they have. Yes, location is your best weapon as a pitcher but some pitchers do better when throwing to areas instead of targets. I think Z is one of those guys which is why at times he struggles (in addition to other things). Gorz may be in the same category
"Baseball is almost the only orderly thing in a very unorderly world. If you get three strikes, even the best lawyer in the world can't get you off." ~ Bill Veeck
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